El oro ha estado sufriendo en respuesta a la decisión de la Reserva Federal. El banco central más poderoso del mundo solo reiteró su compromiso con las tasas bajas, pero se abstuvo de comprometerse a comprar más bonos. La falta de nuevos fondos pesa sobre el metal precioso.

Además, el presidente de la Reserva Federal, Jerome Powell, pareció indicar que el próximo paso depende del gobierno federal al decir que más estímulos ayudarían.

XAU/USD cayó a alrededor de $1.950. ¿Puede recuperarse?

El indicador de confluencias técnicas muestra que el oro continúa enfrentando una resistencia feroz en alrededor de $ 1.969, que es la convergencia de la banda de Bollinger 1h-superior, la BB de un día superior, el punto de pivote de una semana de resistencia 1 y el máximo semanal anterior.

Un pequeño obstáculo aguarda a $1.961, que es donde se encuentran la SMA 5-4h, la SMA 200-4h, el BB 1h-Middle y la SMA 10-15m.

Algo de soporte está en $1.952, que es la confluencia del 23.6% de Fibonacci en una semana y el mínimo de 1h anterior.

Un colchón más significativo está en $1.944, que es una coyuntura que incluye la SMA 200-1h, el Fibonacci 38.2% a un mes y el PP a un día S1.

En general, el camino de menor resistencia es hacia abajo.

Tras la decisión del Comité Federal de Mercado Abierto (FOMC) de mantener la tasa de política sin cambios dentro del rango objetivo de 0-0,25%, Jerome Powell, presidente de la Junta de Gobernadores del Sistema de la Reserva Federal, presenta sus comentarios sobre las perspectivas de política.

Declaraciones clave 

“El empleo máximo no es algo que se pueda reducir a un número como la inflación”.

“El empleo máximo incluye bajo desempleo, alta participación en la fuerza laboral, mejoras salariales”.

“Estamos firmemente comprometidos con el logro de nuestras metas y el rebasamiento de la inflación. Moderado no significa muy por encima del 2%”.

“Esperamos que el público en general comprenda el impulso de la nueva guía”.

“Con el tiempo, la nueva guía brindará un apoyo muy poderoso a la economía”.

“Existe una amplia expectativa de que habrá más acción fiscal, la pregunta es cuánto y cuándo”.

“Hasta ahora, la economía ha demostrado ser resistente al lapso de algunos beneficios de la Ley CARES”.

“Existe el riesgo de que la falta de apoyo fiscal se refleje en la actividad económica, los desalojos y otras medidas”.

 

El índice S&P 500 ha caído por debajo de 3.400 puntos y cotiza a la baja en el día. Las acciones estadounidenses han bajado después de que el presidente de la Reserva Federal dijera que el banco considera que el nivel actual de compra de bonos es apropiado, transmitiendo un mensaje de que no se necesita un nuevo apoyo.

Powell también dijo que señaló que el apoyo fiscal adicional sería útil para ayudar a la economía. La Fed dejó las tasas sin cambios y ajustó su lenguaje sobre la inflación al nuevo cambio de política. Los inversores ya habían incluido el precio de mantener tasas de interés bajas.

El diagrama de puntos del banco apuntaba a una contracción menor en 2020 pero una tasa de crecimiento más lenta en 2021.

  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJI rose 38.17 points, or 0.14%.
  • The S&P 500 SPX lost 15.62 points, or 0.46%. 
  • The NasdaqComposite IXIC dropped 139.86 points, or 1.25%. 

It was looking all rosy on Wall Street until the Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell commented in his Q&A session that “it will take a while to get back to levels of activity and employment that prevailed before the pandemic.” 

Consequently, the benchmarks buckle under the pessimism and the bellwether S&P 500 snapped a three-day winning streak, falling 0.46% by the closing bell. 

Overall, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 38.17 points or 0.14%, to 28,033.77. Economically sensitive industrial and financial stocks helped keep the Dow afloat. The blue-chip index ended the session up 0.13%.   

The S&P 500 lost 15.62 points, or 0.46%, to 3,385.58 and the NasdaqComposite fell 139.86 points, or 1.25%, to 11,050.47.   

The tech-heavy Nasdaq suffered the biggest loss among the major indexes, dipping1.25%, with market leaders Apple Inc AAPL, Amazon.com AMZN, Microsoft Corp MSFT and Facebook Inc FB weighing the most.

Fed delivers a balanced overview

As expected, the central bank left the key Fed funds target rate near zero and signalled that it expects to keep it there until 2023. 

The statement repeated the Fed’s vow to use “its full range of tools” to support economic recovery, which should buoy the stock market for the forcible future so long as the economic recovery remains on track and vaccine hopes linger on. 

However, Powell suggested that the fed’s action may to be enough and he that direct fiscal support may be needed.

Disappointing retail sales data released before the bell, which suggested the economic rebound from the pandemic recession could be losing momentum was a hindrance as well.  

August US Retail Sales disappointed, rising 0.6% m/m (1% expected), with a material downward revision to the previous month.

The control group (which feeds into GDP) fell 0.1% MoM, adding to concerns that the economy may be losing momentum into Q4.

It suggests consumption has been affected by the end of the supplementary $600 weekly unemployment support and the rise in COVID-19 cases.

On the whole, the data argue for additional fiscal support and significant risks to the recovery as H2 advances, especially given that employment has been slowing.

analysts at ANZ bank explained. 

SP 500 levels

 

Here is what you need to know on Thursday, September 17:

The US Federal Reserve had a  monetary policy meeting but was unable to impress investors.  Powell formalized in the statement the latest framework shift to an average inflation target. Fresh forecasts showed that the FOMC expects the GDP to contract by 3.7% at a softer pace than the previous forecast of 6.5% in 2020 and sees unemployment at 7.6% at year’s end, compared to 9.3% in June projection. Fed fund rates are seen unchanged for this year and the next ones, while inflation was downwardly revised for this year to 1.0% from 1.5%. US policymakers are open to adjusting the monetary policy further as needed but suggested they will remain on pause for now.

The dollar advanced modestly at the end of the day, but there were no notable developments across the board, except for EUR/USD which fell below 1.1800.

GBP/USD surged to 1.3000 and finished the day around 1.2960, on reports the UK offered tentative concessions on fisheries in trade talks with the EU, one of the main issues blocking negotiations in the last months. Pound bulls ignored the Fed. The focus shifts now to the BOE monetary policy announcement early Thursday.

Yoshihide Suga has been confirmed by the Japanese Parliament as the new Prime Minister of the country. He is expected to follow Abe’s path, and that should keep the waters calm, at least from that front.  The USD/JPY plunged below 105.00 and retains its bearish stance heading into the Asian opening.

Gold prices fell with the Fed, amid no more stimulus expected in the near term. Nevertheless, the bright metal held within familiar levels, trading at around 1,955 at the end of the day.

Crude oil prices were firmly up, finding support in the EIA, which reported that US crude stockpiles dropped by 4.4 million barrels last week, against estimations of a 1.3 million increase. In addition, Hurricane Sally forced the shutdown of more than 25% of oil production in the Gulf of Mexico.

Australia will publish August employment data, while the BOJ is having a monetary policy meeting early Thursday, granting some action during the upcoming Asian session.

 

  • GBP/USD is trading over half a percent higher on Wednesday but the bulls have hit resistance.
  • The market has moved back below 1.30 as two key levels met.

GBP/USD 30-minute chart

GBP/USD has been moving higher on Wednesday after the long downtrend inspired by the last set of Brexit negotiations. There has been a series of higher highs and higher lows on the intraday (30 minute) timeframe but the bulls hit a brick wall at 1.30.

The technical pattern on the chart is a channel formation. The top of the channel met the psychological level and the price fell 71 pips. The next support on the downside is the channel low but beyond that, there is an important level at the key-value area. This is the point in the consolidation where the price has been hit the most times. Also around 1.2920 there has been two rejection points previously and this could be a support area.

The indicators have recently turned bearish. The MACD histogram is green and the Relative Strength Index has now dipped below the 50-level. The signal lines are above the mid-point which suggests the uptrend might not be over yet but they are lagging in nature. The bulls need to wait and see if the wave high is tested and taken out again but the bears look to be in a slightly stronger position after the topside rejection.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

Additional levels