05 Ноя 2018

FOREX Newsletter

    

FOREX Newsletter

November 05, 2018

 

Pulse of the Market

·      250K jobs were created last month in the U.S which was more than the market’s 200K forecast

·      The Midterm Elections scheduled on Tuesday and monetary policy announcement on Thursday

·      Stronger German inflation and employment data were offset by weaker Eurozone Q3 GDP growth

·      The uptrend in USD/CAD remains intact after last week’s economic reports

 

The U.S Dollar traded higher on the back of the non-farm payrolls report but it was the confusion around US-China trade relations that caused the sell-off in equities and spillover to currencies. The main takeaway from the jobs report is that it is good enough for the Fed to raise interest rates in December. 250K jobs were created last month, which was more than the market’s 200K forecast but this improvement was offset by the downward revision in September and the slowdown in wage growth. Traders were disappointed to hear that despite President Trump’s tweet about a constructive conversation with President Xi, Chief Economic Advisor Kudlow is not optimistic about US-China relations because there hasn’t been any massive movement on trade and more importantly, they have not been asked to draft a China deal. What’s even more confusing is that after these comments, Trump said he thinks a deal with China could happen. At the end of the day while Trump and Xi could meet at the G20 meeting at the end of the month it remains to be seen whether anything substantial will come out of the meeting. As stocks resumed their slide, investors flocked into the safety of US dollars and if stocks continue to fall, the greenback will resume its rise. There are two big events for the dollar next week – the Midterm Elections on Tuesday and the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy announcement on Thursday. According to the latest opinion polls, the Democrats could take control of the House with the Republicans maintaining its majority in the Senate. While the Federal Reserve is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged and reiterate their plans to raise interest rates in December, the tone of the FOMC statement could be more cautious. As for the euro, the currency saw little change over the past week. Stronger than expected German inflation and employment data were offset by weaker Eurozone Q3 GDP growth and sentiment. Not much has changed for the euro but on Friday. The Australian and New Zealand dollars will also be in focus with Reserve Bank monetary policy announcements from both nations.

 

Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
  New Zealand Dairy Auction Whole Milk Powder MT (NOV 6) Medium     $2,729
00:00 Australia TD Securities Inflation (YoY) (OCT) Medium     2.1%
01:00 BOJ Kuroda speaks in Nagoya High      
01:45 Caixin China PMI Composite (OCT) Medium     52.1
01:45 Caixin China PMI Services (OCT) Medium     53.1
09:00 Switzerland Domestic Sight Deposits CHF (NOV 2) Low      
09:30 Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI (OCT) Medium     53.9
09:30 Markit/CIPS UK Composite PMI (OCT) Medium     54.1
09:30 Euro-Zone Sentix Investor Confidence (NOV) Low     11.4
12:45 ECB Vice President Guindos Speak in Brussels Low      
14:45 Markit US Services PMI (OCT) Low     54.7
14:45 Markit US Composite PMI (OCT) Low     54.8
15:00 U.S ISM Non-Manufacturing/Services Composite (OCT) High   59.5 61.6

 

Euro

The single currency fell against the U.S Dollar on Friday losing ground to five of the other seven major currencies as the calendar turned from October to November. There are no ‘high’ rated German or Eurozone data releases in the coming week, meaning the only potential domestic catalyst in the days ahead is progress around Italy’s budget. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 1.1370 and a high of 1.1454 before closing the day around 1.1389 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen finished October as the best performing currencies, but its start to November has been inauspicious, to say the least. Changes in retail trader positioning seem to indicate that Japanese Yen weakness may be on the short-term horizon. Investor sentiment was given a further shot in the arm on Friday. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 112.53 and a high of 113.30 before closing the day around 113.19 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound has been rather noisy and sideways during the trading session on Friday as we awaited jobs figures. This makes a lot of sense though, because we are trying to come to terms with the idea of being at the 1.30 handle, an area that of course is a large come around, psychologically significant figure. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.2949 and a high of 1.3039 before closing the day at 1.2968 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar dipped against a broadly stronger greenback, reversing from an earlier one-week high, after the release of domestic jobs data that was not firm enough to raise bets for another BOC interest rate hike next month. The Canadian economy added 11,200 jobs in October on full-time hiring, and the unemployment rate fell to 5.8 per cent. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.3046 and a high of 1.3116 before closing the day at 1.3098 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar extended its rally on Friday as an apparent de-escalation in the U.S.-China trade war gave market confidence a significant boost in Asian trade but ended by the end of the U.S session Aussie reversed all its gains and ended the day lower against the U.S Dollar. The Australian dollar climbed 0.5 percent earlier in the session. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7180 and a high of 0.7256 before closing the day at 0.7195 in the New York session.

 

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading below 14 and above 50, 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is issuing a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 48 and lies below the neutral zone. In general, the pair has gained 0.29%.

 

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bullish tone and MACD is indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 54 reading and lies above the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has gained 0.23%.

 

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is also indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 60 reading and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.32%.

  

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bearish tone and MACD is issuing a bullish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 41 and lies below the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has gained 0.10%.

 

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bullish stance and MACD is indicating a bearish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 58 and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.07%.

 

Appendix

  

FOREX Closing Prices for November 02, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.14056 1.14544 1.13708 1.13896 -0.0018
USD/JPY 112.68 113.304 112.538 113.191 0.4960
GBP/USD 1.30014 1.30391 1.29497 1.29683 -0.0029
USD/CHF 1.00191 1.00468 0.99663 1.0034 0.0015
USD/CAD 1.30857 1.31168 1.30463 1.30985 0.0015
EUR/JPY 128.506 129.303 128.349 128.936 0.3680
GBP/JPY 146.505 147.233 146.262 146.809 0.3340
CHF/JPY 112.424 113.205 112.258 112.772 0.3250
AUD/JPY 81.205 81.909 80.997 81.452 0.2630
EUR/GBP 0.877 0.87987 0.87661 0.878 0.0009
EUR/CHF 1.14279 1.14527 1.14031 1.14295 -0.0001
GBP/CHF 1.3028 1.30421 1.29659 1.30143 -0.0010

 

 

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1272 1.1321 1.1355 1.1405 1.1439 1.1489 1.1523
USD/JPY 111.95 112.25 112.72 113.01 113.48 113.78 114.25
GBP/USD 1.2843 1.2896 1.2932 1.2986 1.3022 1.3075 1.3111
USD/CHF 0.9904 0.9935 0.9985 1.0016 1.0065 1.0096 1.0146
USD/CAD 1.2987 1.3017 1.3058 1.3087 1.3128 1.3158 1.3199
EUR/JPY 127.47 127.91 128.42 128.86 129.38 129.82 130.33
GBP/JPY 145.33 145.80 146.30 146.77 147.27 147.74 148.25
CHF/JPY 111.34 111.80 112.29 112.75 113.23 113.69 114.18
AUD/JPY 80.08 80.54 81.00 81.45 81.91 82.36 82.82
EUR/GBP 0.8732 0.8749 0.8765 0.8782 0.8797 0.8814 0.8830
EUR/CHF 1.1355 1.1379 1.1404 1.1428 1.1454 1.1478 1.1503
GBP/CHF 1.2897 1.2931 1.2973 1.3007 1.3049 1.3084 1.3125

 

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

02 Ноя 2018

Daily  Market View

 

Daily  Market View

Fiday, November 02, 2018
          U.S Stock Market

 

DJIA S & P 500 NASDAQ
25320 2737.50 7077.00
+1.06% +1.06% +1.75%

U.S. stocks rose for a third day in yesterday’s session, continuing a torrid rebound from the October sell-off as investors greeted the latest batch of earnings optimistically amid signs of easing trade tension. The dollar sank, and oil tumbled. The risk-on mood that’s suddenly gripped American equity markets sent the S&P 500 to its best three-day advance in two years. Earnings that for weeks had done little to jolt shares higher contributed to Thursday’s gain, with Dow DuPont rallying the most since 2015 and NXP Semiconductors leading a rally in chipmakers ahead of Apple’s results. Homebuilders that got trounced in October rallied, while utility stocks that had been in favor slumped. Equities also got a lift from a President Donald Trump tweet claiming progress in trade negotiations with China. The dollar extended its sell-off to the most since March after it ended October at the highest in more than a year. The 10-year Treasury yield slipped after data on manufacturing missed estimates ahead of Friday’s jobs report. Emerging-market assets surged.

 

Major Economic Releases for Today
Period Event GMT Forecast Previous

oct

Canada Unemployment Rate 12:30 5.9% 5.9%

oct

Canada Net Change in Employment 12:30 12.5k 63.3k

sep

U.S Trade Balance 12:30 -$53.6b -$53.2b

oct

U.S Change in Non-farm Payrolls 12:30 193k 134k

oct

U.S Change in Private Payrolls 12:30 190k 121k

oct

U.S Unemployment Rate 12:30 3.7% 3.7%

oct

U.S Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) 12:30 3.2% 2.8%

sep

U.S Factory Orders 14:00 0.5% 2.3%

sep

U.S Durable Goods Orders 14:00   0.8%
Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow rose for a third-straight day as positive remarks from President Donald Trump on China-U.S. trade relations fueled hopes that both nations will seek to resolve their bitter trade dispute. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose about 1.05% yesterday. Boeing and Caterpillar, bellwethers of international trade, rallied more than 2%, lifting industrials and the broader market. A slew of upbeat earnings from different corners of the market also added some clout to the rally on Wall Street. Dow DuPont rose 8%, lifting the materials sector, after it posted third-quarter earnings that beat consensus. Energy names also lifted sentiment on equities, shrugging off a 2.5% slump in oil prices.

 

 

 

NASDAQ 100

The tech heavy NASDAQ index gained 1.75% yesterday. Shares of Netflix topped the list of the day’s best performing components of the NASDAQ 100 index, trading up 7.0%. Year to date, Netflix registers a 59.4% gain. And the worst performing NASDAQ 100 component on the day was Electronic Arts traded down 4.2%. Two other components made moves were Gilead Sciences and T-Mobile US.

 

Oil

Oil prices fell more than 2 percent yesterday, with U.S crude hitting its lowest level in nearly seven months as last month’s steep losses continued into November. U.S crude ended yesterday’s session down $1.62, or 2.5 percent, at a nearly seven-month low of $63.69. The contract bottomed out at $63.11 earlier in the session, its weakest price since April 9. Crude futures got caught up in a broader sell-off in global equity markets in October, sinking as investors sold risk assets. But oil prices have continued to drop even as stocks claw back some gains. U.S. crude is now trading at levels not seen since the month before President Donald Trump restored sanctions against Iran, OPEC’s third biggest oil producer. The looming sanctions on Iran’s energy sector, which go into full force next week, have played a major role in the oil market’s rally to nearly four-year highs just one month ago. U.S production hit an all-time high at 11.3 million barrels per day in August, according to the EIA’s reading.

 

 

Precious and Base Metals

Gold rose nearly 2 percent yesterday, bouncing off a three-week low touched in the previous session as the dollar fell sharply from recent highs, making the metal cheaper for holders of other currencies. Spot gold gained 1.7 percent at $1,234.18 per ounce after rising as much as 1.9 percent to its highest since Oct. 26 at $1,237.39. U.S gold futures settled up $23.60, or 1.94 percent, at $1,238.60. The pretty aggressive drop in the U.S dollar was a significant catalyst for gold yesterday. The drop in the U.S. bond yields, dollar and improvement in Chinese Yuan were major factors and we continue to have volatility in the equity markets. With all of that we have seen significant short covering in gold. The dollar index, which measures the U.S unit against a basket of six major currencies, fell 0.9 percent, dropping from a 16-month high hit in the previous session on continued U.S economic strength. Federal data yesterday showed new applications for U.S. unemployment aid fell last week and the number of Americans receiving benefits was the lowest in more than 45 years as labor market conditions tightened further. The economy’s upbeat outlook was, however, tempered by news that manufacturing activity slowed in October as a measure of new orders dropped to its lowest level in 1-1/2 years. Investors will focus today’s non-farm payrolls data for further clues on the strength of the U.S economy. Markets are also watching the U.S. congressional elections on Tuesday, which will determine whether the Republican or Democratic Party controls the U.S Congress, with some predicting increased market volatility on the outcome. Gold fell in the three previous sessions and touched its lowest since Oct. 11 on Wednesday at $1,211.52 per ounce. Traders stepped in to buy the dip in gold prices on some perceived bargain-hunting and by some short-covering from the futures traders. Precious metals are seeing buying interest as the U.S. dollar index is posting sharp losses yesterday. Silver jumped 3.7 percent to $14.74 per ounce.

 

 

 

Traditional Agricultures

Wheat prices rose yesterday in yesterday’s session, supported by hope that smaller harvests in key exporting countries could transfer world demand to the United States.

 

 

 

Futures Settlement Price Thursday, November 01, 2018
Instrument Contract Open High Low Settlement Net Change
DJIA DJM18 25043 25359 25043 25320 280
S & P 500 SPM18 2706.25 2741.25 2705.5 2737.5 31.75
NASDAQ 100 NDM18 6959.25 7079.25 6936.25 7077 120.25
Hang Seng HSH18 25076 25511 25032 25336 433
Nikkei 225 NKH18 21770 21865 21520 21525 -320
FTSE 100 FTH18 7058 7138.5 7049.5 7095.5 14
Gold GCJ18 1216.4 1239 1216.4 1235.1 19.2
Silver SIK18 1425 1481.5 1424 1474 50.5
Copper HGK18 265 272.75 264.2 271.8 6.45
Crude Oil CLK18 64.84 65.35 63.08 63.5 -1.32
Wheat WK18 501.25 509.35 500.5 506.25 5.5
Soybeans SK18 849.5 888.25 845.25 880.5 29.5
Corn CK18 363.25 370.5 362.5 366.25 3.5

 

 

Daily Swings  (The Pivot Levels)
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
DJM18 24806 24925 25122 25241 25438 25557 25754
SPM18 2679.17 2692.33 2714.92 2728.08 2750.67 2763.83 2786.42
NDM18 6839.42 6887.83 6982.42 7030.83 7125.42 7173.83 7268.42
HSH18 24596 24814 25075 25293 25554 25772 26033
NKH18 21063 21292 21408 21637 21753 21982 22098
FTH18 6961.50 7005.50 7050.50 7094.50 7139.50 7183.50 7228.50
GCJ18 1198.73 1207.57 1221.33 1230.17 1243.93 1252.77 1266.53
SIK18 1380.67 1402.33 1438.17 1459.83 1495.67 1517.33 1553.17
HGK18 257.87 261.03 266.42 269.58 274.97 278.13 283.52
CLK18 60.33 61.71 62.60 63.98 64.87 66.25 67.14
WK18 492.53 496.52 501.38 505.37 510.23 514.22 519.08
SK18 811.42 828.33 854.42 871.33 897.42 914.33 940.42
CK18 354.33 358.42 362.33 366.42 370.33 374.42 378.33

 

 Source: – News & Quotes (Courtesy:  Reuters)                                                                    

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

 

 

 

 

02 Ноя 2018

FOREX Newsletter

FOREX Newsletter

November 02, 2018

 

Pulse of the Market

·      U.S manufacturing growth slowed with the ISM index dropping to 57.7 from 59.8

·      Bank of England meeting combined with Brexit optimism sent sterling above 1.30

·      The Euro experienced strong gains in yesterday’s session because of short covering

·      The Canadian Dollar traded higher but its 0.5% gains were modest in comparison

The U.S Dollar traded lower against all of the major currencies on the first day of November and we can point to a few reasons for the decline. First and foremost, the greenback started the NY session under pressure with the sell-off gaining momentum on the back of softer US data. According to Challenger Grey & Christmas, layoffs surged in October, although more than half of the 153.6% increase was due to Verizon’s voluntary severance program. Manufacturing growth slowed with the ISM index dropping to 57.7 from 59.8, a consequence of the trade war. The dollar was also down because high risk currencies are up and part of this move is driven by the decline in Treasury yields and the corresponding rise in Eurozone, UK and Australian rates. Non-farm payrolls are scheduled for release today and despite yesterday’s decline in the dollar, the market is looking for strong jobs growth. Meanwhile, the big focus yesterday was the Bank of England meeting which combined with Brexit optimism sent sterling above 1.30. Yesterday’s 1.85% rally was the strongest one day gain for the pair this year. The BoE voted 9-0 to leave interest rates unchanged and lowered its growth forecasts for the year but instead of falling, sterling soared as the central bank talked rate hikes. According to the summary of the report, the MPC felt that “Were the economy to continue to develop broadly in line with the November Inflation Report projections, an ongoing tightening of monetary policy over the forecast period would be appropriate.” Governor Carney said a Brexit deal could release pent up investment demand but a no-deal Brexit could also lead to a major supply shock that could drive up inflation and interest rates. It was also a good day for other currencies such as EUR/USD, which rose 0.9%, AUD/USD which jumped 1.8% and NZD/USD which increased 2%. The Canadian Dollar traded higher but its 0.5% gains were modest in comparison. A stronger than expected Australian trade report helped AUD while NZD was supported by an uptick in job ads and house prices.

 

 

 

Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
00:30 Australia Retail Sales Ex Inflation (QoQ) (3Q) Medium   0.4% 1.2%
07:00 German Import Price Index (YoY) (SEP) Low   4.5% 4.8%
08:15 Switzerland Retail Sales Real (YoY) (SEP) Medium   -0.1% 0.4%
09:30 Markit/CIPS UK Construction PMI (OCT) Medium   52 52.1
12:30 Canada Unemployment Rate (OCT) High   5.9% 5.9%
12:30 Canada Net Change in Employment (OCT) High   12.5k 63.3k
12:30 U.S Trade Balance (SEP) Medium   -$53.6b -$53.2b
12:30 U.S Change in Non-farm Payrolls (OCT) High   193k 134k
12:30 U.S Change in Private Payrolls (OCT) Medium   190k 121k
12:30 U.S Unemployment Rate (OCT) High   3.7% 3.7%
12:30 U.S Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (OCT) Medium   3.2% 2.8%
14:00 U.S Factory Orders (SEP) Medium   0.5% 2.3%
14:00 U.S Durable Goods Orders (SEP F) Medium     0.8%
17:00 U.S Baker Hughes U.S Rig Count (NOV 2) Medium     1068

 

Euro

The single currency gained sharply in yesterday’s trading session as Euro zone government bond yields nudged higher following rallying stock markets and upbeat noises on Brexit talks dimmed the appeal of fixed income assets. Across the single-currency bloc, most 10-year debt yields were 1-2 bps higher on the day. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 1.1306 and a high of 1.1422 before closing the day around 1.1407 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen traded higher yesterday. Japanese Final Manufacturing PMI improved to 52.9, but missed the forecast of 53.1 points. Japanese 10-year bonds were unchanged. In the U.S, unemployment claims ticked lower to 214 thousand. On the manufacturing front, ISM Manufacturing PMI disappointed, as it fell to 57.7 points. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 112.58 and a high of 112.98 before closing the day around 112.69 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound rose the most in nine months on reports that London is close to sealing a financial services deal with Brussels.  A British official said London was close to agreeing on a deal giving UK-based financial services firms basic access to European Union markets. The BoE kept interest rates on hold on Thursday but kept its options open. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.2760 and a high of 1.3033 before closing the day at 1.2997 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar gained sharply as the U.S Dollar was broadly lower yesterday. The Canadian dollar declined 1.9 percent in October, its worst monthly performance since February, as optimism after a deal to revamp the NAFTA was overshadowed by a plunge in global stocks. Over the same month, the U.S. dollar climbed 2 percent.  Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.3066 and a high of 1.3166 before closing the day at 1.3083 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar edged higher yesterday after the country’s trade surplus swelled to a near two-year peak in September helped by a bumper run in resource exports, while the New Zealand dollar was also buoyant. Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) showed the country’s trade surplus climbed to A$3.02 billion when analysts had looked for A$1.7 billion. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7070 and a high of 0.7207 before closing the day at 0.7250 in the New York session.

 

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading below 14 and above 50, 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is issuing a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 45 and lies below the neutral zone. In general, the pair has gained 0.65%.

 

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish tone and MACD is also indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 53 reading and lies above the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has gained 1.62%.

  

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is also indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 58 reading and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 1.69%.

  

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bearish tone and MACD is issuing a bullish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 39 and lies below the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has lost 1.00%.

 

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bullish stance and MACD is indicating a bearish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 60 and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 1.18%.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Appendix

 

 

FOREX Closing Prices for November 01, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.13092 1.14227 1.13066 1.14072 0.0096
USD/JPY 112.941 112.984 112.587 112.695 -0.2290
GBP/USD 1.27641 1.30332 1.27607 1.29972 0.0233
USD/CHF 1.0086 1.00896 0.99985 1.00192 -0.0064
USD/CAD 1.31553 1.31667 1.30664 1.30838 -0.0071
EUR/JPY 127.751 128.742 127.593 128.568 0.8290
GBP/JPY 144.168 146.858 144 146.475 2.3280
CHF/JPY 111.949 112.653 111.84 112.447 0.4890
AUD/JPY 79.864 81.228 79.827 81.189 1.3530
EUR/GBP 0.88595 0.88626 0.87555 0.87714 -0.0089
EUR/CHF 1.14082 1.14468 1.14012 1.14302 0.0023
GBP/CHF 1.2875 1.30482 1.28634 1.30239 0.0152

 

 

 

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1219 1.1263 1.1335 1.1379 1.1451 1.1495 1.1567
USD/JPY 112.13 112.36 112.53 112.76 112.92 113.15 113.32
GBP/USD 1.2555 1.2658 1.2828 1.2930 1.3100 1.3203 1.3373
USD/CHF 0.9891 0.9945 0.9982 1.0036 1.0073 1.0127 1.0164
USD/CAD 1.2944 1.3005 1.3045 1.3106 1.3145 1.3206 1.3245
EUR/JPY 126.71 127.15 127.86 128.30 129.01 129.45 130.16
GBP/JPY 141.84 142.92 144.70 145.78 147.56 148.64 150.41
CHF/JPY 111.16 111.50 111.97 112.31 112.79 113.13 113.60
AUD/JPY 78.87 79.35 80.27 80.75 81.67 82.15 83.07
EUR/GBP 0.8623 0.8689 0.8730 0.8797 0.8838 0.8904 0.8945
EUR/CHF 1.1360 1.1380 1.1405 1.1426 1.1451 1.1472 1.1497
GBP/CHF 1.2724 1.2794 1.2909 1.2979 1.3094 1.3163 1.3278

 

 

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

 

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

01 Ноя 2018

Daily Market View

     

Daily Market View

Thursday, November 01, 2018
          U.S Stock Market

 

DJIA S & P 500 NASDAQ
25040 2705.75 6956.75
+0.97% +1.09% +2.01%

Stocks rose sharply yesterday for a second straight day as strong earnings from General Motors and Facebook lifted sentiment. But the major averages still posted big October losses. The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 241.12 points, led by Visa, bringing its two-day gain to about 650 points. The S&P 500 gained 1.1 percent as consumer discretionary and energy outperformed. The NASDAQ advanced 2 percent and briefly climbed out of correction territory. General Motors shares spiked 9.1 percent after the company reported quarterly results that easily topped expectations. The company said it sold fewer cars in the third quarter, but at a higher price, boosting its bottom line. Facebook shares rose 3.8 percent after the company reported on Tuesday better-than-expected earnings. CEO Mark Zuckerberg said during the company’s earnings call Facebook plans to invest significantly in its business next year. The stock’s rise on Wednesday led Amazon, Apple, Netflix, and Alphabet higher.

 

 

Major Economic Releases for Today
Period Event GMT Forecast Previous

oct

U.S Challenger Job Cuts (YoY) 11:30   70.9%

nov

Bank of England Bank Rate 12:00 0.75% 0.75%

nov

BOE Asset Purchase Target 12:00 435b 435b

 

Bank of England Inflation Report 12:00    

 

BOE’s Carney speaks at press conference in London 12:30    

oct

U.S Initial Jobless Claims 12:30 212k 215k

oct

RBC Canadian Manufacturing PMI 13:30   54.8

oct

U.S ISM Manufacturing 14:00 59 59.8

oct

U.S ISM Employment 14:00   58.8
Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.97% yesterday. The best performers of the session on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were Visa Inc. which rose 3.83% or 5.09 points to trade at 137.85 at the close. Meanwhile, Caterpillar Inc. added 3.29% or 3.86 points to end at 121.32 and Microsoft Corporation was up 2.97% or 3.08 points to 106.81 in late trade. The worst performers of the session were Walmart Inc. which fell 2.09% or 2.14 points to trade at 100.28 at the close. Verizon Communications Inc. declined 1.87% or 1.09 points to end at 57.09 and Intel Corporation was down 1.84% or 0.88 points to 46.88.

 

 

 

NASDAQ 100

The tech heavy NASDAQ index added 2.01% yesterday. The top performers on the NASDAQ Composite were Intersections Inc. which rose 102.29% to 3.540, AEterna Zentaris Inc. which was up 67.69% to settle at 2.180 and Strongbridge Biopharma plc which gained 58.02% to close at 6.4000. The worst performers were Spartan Motors Inc. which was down 40.02% to 6.73 in late trade, Clovis Oncology Inc. which lost 29.98% to settle at 11.63 and Nextgen Healthcare Inc. which was down 24.68% to 14.77 at the close.

 

Oil

Oil futures settled lower yesterday as a weekly rise in U.S crude supplies nearly matched market expectations and product stocks declined. Prices also posted their biggest monthly percentage decline in more than two years as rising production and the potential for a slowdown in energy demand outweighed expectations for further declines in Iranian oil exports, with U.S sanctions set to begin next week. West Texas Intermediate crude for December delivery fell 87 cents, or 1.3%, to settle at $65.31 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The Energy Information Administration reported Wednesday that domestic crude supplies rose by 3.2 million barrels for the week ended Oct. 26. That followed five consecutive weeks of gains. Analysts surveyed by S&P Global Platts had forecast a rise of 3.3 million barrels, while the American Petroleum Institute on Tuesday reported an increase of 5.7 million barrels. Gasoline stockpiles declined by 3.2 million barrels last week.

 

 

Precious and Base Metals

Gold slid to its lowest in nearly three weeks yesterday as the dollar jumped and stock markets regained momentum after a spate of heavy losses, but the metal remained on track for its biggest monthly gain since January. Gold is set to end a six-month run of losses in October, the longest such streak since a period from August 1996 to January 1997, as it heads for a more than 2 percent gain this month on intense stock market volatility. Spot gold was down 0.5 percent at $1,215.96 an ounce, having touched its lowest since Oct. 11 at $1,214.07. U.S gold futures fell 0.6 percent to $1,217.50. Analysts said they saw a stronger dollar ahead and predicted gold could struggle to continue its October rally. The dollar index looks like it’s going higher and there is uncertainty related to the mid-term elections next week. If there are signs that the Republicans are going to do well, this will probably lead to yet more dollar strength. The mid-term elections on Nov. 6 will determine whether the Republican or Democratic Party controls the U.S Congress. The dollar index climbed to a 16-month high while the Yuan fell to its weakest level against the dollar since May 2008. The dollar versus the emerging market currencies, especially the Chinese Yuan, is something the market is looking at. The depreciating Yuan is the key reason why gold has been weak. Gold benefited quite a lot from the equity market jitters we had in the past week or so. Now the equity markets are calming a bit and trying to build a bottom at these lows, which is also negative for gold. European shares were helped by positive momentum in global stock markets, bringing some relief after a brutal October in which equities suffered one of their worst drops in a decade and spooked investor confidence. Gold has fallen by about 11 percent since April, hit by rising U.S. interest rates and a global trade war that threatens economic growth, prompting investors to rush to the safety of the dollar.

 

 

 

Traditional Agricultures

Corn futures edged lower yesterday as friendly weather was expected to see farmers advance harvesting, pushing prices to a five-day low. Wheat fell for a second consecutive session, while soybeans were little changed. Corn was under pressure as weather forecasts called for benign weather.

 

 

 

Futures Settlement Price Wednesday, October 31, 2018
Instrument Contract Open High Low Settlement Net Change
DJIA DJM18 24872 25300 24821 25040 187
S & P 500 SPM18 2690.75 2737 2681.75 2705.75 21.5
NASDAQ 100 NDM18 6856.75 7038.75 6816.5 6956.75 143.25
Hang Seng HSH18 24743 24957 24678 24903 321
Nikkei 225 NKH18 21655 21905 21555 21845 380
FTSE 100 FTH18 7077 7135.5 7073 7081.5 22.5
Gold GCJ18 1224.1 1224.7 1213.2 1215.9 -8.4
Silver SIK18 1446 1447 1423 1423.5 -22.5
Copper HGK18 267.3 268.05 264.6 265.35 -1.7
Crude Oil CLK18 66.29 66.96 64.78 64.82 -1.49
Wheat WK18 498.25 501.25 489.75 500.75 1.25
Soybeans SK18 846.5 854.5 844.25 851 4.25
Corn CK18 364.25 364.75 362.25 362.75 -1.75

 

 

Daily Swings  (The Pivot Levels)
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
DJM18 24328 24575 24807 25054 25286 25533 25765
SPM18 2624.08 2652.92 2679.33 2708.17 2734.58 2763.42 2789.83
NDM18 6613.67 6715.08 6835.92 6937.33 7058.17 7159.58 7280.42
HSH18 24456 24567 24735 24846 25014 25125 25293
NKH18 21282 21418 21632 21768 21982 22118 22332
FTH18 6995.33 7034.17 7057.83 7096.67 7120.33 7159.17 7182.83
GCJ18 1199.67 1206.43 1211.17 1217.93 1222.67 1229.43 1234.17
SIK18 1391.33 1407.17 1415.33 1431.17 1439.33 1455.17 1463.33
HGK18 260.50 262.55 263.95 266.00 267.40 269.45 270.85
CLK18 61.90 63.34 64.08 65.52 66.26 67.70 68.44
WK18 481.75 485.75 493.25 497.25 504.75 508.75 516.25
SK18 835.08 839.67 845.33 849.92 855.58 860.17 865.83
CK18 359.25 360.75 361.75 363.25 364.25 365.75 366.75

 

 

 Source: – News & Quotes (Courtesy:  Reuters)                                                                    

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

 

 

 

 

01 Ноя 2018

FOREX Newsletter

FOREX Newsletter

November 01, 2018

 

Pulse of the Market

·      U.S private employers added 227,000 jobs in October, above economists’ expectations

·      The Euro has been under pressure by political uncertainty in Germany

·      Sterling was higher as news of a possible Brexit deal as early as Nov. 21 boosted sentiment

·      The Loonie struggled to leverage stronger-than-expected growth data from Canada

The U.S Dollar inched down yesterday but remained near a 16-month high as upbeat data and rising Treasury yields increased demand for the greenback. The U.S dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of six major currencies, inched down 0.13% to 96.88. Private sector payrolls in the U.S rose by the most in eight months in October, data showed ahead of the government nonfarm payrolls data on Friday. U.S private employers added 227,000 jobs in October, above economists’ expectations of a gain of 189,000 jobs. Meanwhile the yield on the benchmark United States 10-Year rose to a 1-week high of 3.149%. Euro-area inflation accelerated in October and underlying price pressures increased, complicating policy makers’ choices after the economy grew at its weakest pace since 2014. Consumer prices jumped 2.2 percent from a year earlier while a measure that strips out volatile components rose to 1.1 percent. Inflation has been stronger than the European Central Bank’s goal of just below 2 percent for the past five months, although energy has contributed a significant part to the pickup. President Mario Draghi has expressed confidence that a robust labor market and growing wages will also lift core prices, justifying a gradual withdrawal of monetary stimulus. The pound surged after a letter by U.K Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab spurred optimism that a divorce deal with the EU is in sight. Sterling strengthened against all of its major peers after Parliament released the Oct. 24 correspondence, in which Raab says he is happy to update lawmakers on the negotiations when a deal is finalized, and he currently expects Nov. 21 “to be suitable.” The pound trimmed its advance after a U.K government spokesman said he would not get involved in “interpretation” of the letter. The pound gained almost 1 percent to touch $1.2831 before paring its advance.

 

 

Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
01:45 Caixin China PMI Mfg (OCT) Medium 50 50
07:00 U.K Nationwide House Px n.s.a. (YoY) (OCT) Medium 1.9% 2.0%
08:15 Switzerland Consumer Price Index (YoY) (OCT) Medium 1.0% 1.0%
08:30 Switzerland PMI Manufacturing (OCT) Medium 58.7 59.7
09:30 Markit UK PMI Manufacturing s.a. (OCT) Medium 53 53.8
11:30 U.S Challenger Job Cuts (YoY) (OCT) Low 70.9%
12:00 Bank of England Bank Rate (NOV 1) High 0.75% 0.75%
12:00 BOE Asset Purchase Target (NOV) High 435b 435b
12:00 Bank of England Inflation Report High
12:30 BOE’s Carney speaks at press conference in London High
12:30 U.S Initial Jobless Claims (OCT 27) Medium 212k 215k
12:30 U.S Continuing Claims (OCT 2) Medium 1639k 1636k
13:30 RBC Canadian Manufacturing PMI (OCT) High 54.8
14:00 U.S ISM Manufacturing (OCT) High 59 59.8
14:00 U.S ISM Employment (OCT) High 58.8

 

Euro

The single currency is close to the lows of the year, largely as a result of widespread dollar strength. Euro-area inflation accelerated in October and underlying price pressures increased, complicating policy makers’ choices after the economy grew at its weakest pace since 2014. Consumer prices jumped 2.2 percent from a year earlier. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 1.1300 and a high of 1.1358 before closing the day around 1.1311 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen pair hit its highest level since October 9 earlier yesterday before turning lower for the session on profit-taking following a strong three day rally. The rally was fueled by increased demand for higher risk assets and solid U.S economic data. The selling was likely related to profit-taking and position squaring ahead of U.S Non-Farm Payrolls report. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 112.78 and a high of 113.36 before closing the day around 112.92 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound surged and gilts declined after a letter by U.K Brexit Secretary spurred optimism that a divorce deal with the EU is in sight. Sterling strengthened after Parliament released the Oct. 24 correspondence. The pound trimmed its advance after a U.K government spokesman said he would not get involved in “interpretation” of the letter. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.2689 and a high of 1.2828 before closing the day at 1.2764 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar edged lower against its U.S counterpart yesterday as the greenback broadly climbed, offsetting data that showed a surprise strengthening of the domestic economy in August. The Canadian economy grew by 0.1 percent in August from July on gains in the oil and gas extraction sector, as well as finance and insurance. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.3104 and a high of 1.3167 before closing the day at 1.3154 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar fell after an eighth consecutive inflation disappointment vindicated the market for its pessimism about the outlook for interest rates down under, and as data suggested the Chinese economy is beginning to creak under the pressure of U.S. tariffs. Australian inflation rose at an annualized rate of 1.9% during the third-quarter. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7066 and a high of 0.7105 before closing the day at 0.7071 in the New York session.

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading below 14 and above 50, 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is issuing a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 38 and lies below the neutral zone. In general, the pair has lost 0.44%.

 

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading below 14 and above 50, 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish tone and MACD is also indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 39 reading and lies below the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has gained 0.30%.

  

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 47 reading and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.62%.

  

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 51 and lies above the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.74%.

  

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish stance and MACD is indicating a bullish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 50 and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.79%.

 

Appendix

  

FOREX Closing Prices for October 31, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.13427 1.13589 1.13007 1.1311 -0.0032
USD/JPY 113.131 113.366 112.786 112.924 -0.1750
GBP/USD 1.27066 1.28289 1.26989 1.27641 0.0060
USD/CHF 1.00504 1.00931 1.00318 1.0083 0.0033
USD/CAD 1.31074 1.31678 1.31048 1.31546 0.0047
EUR/JPY 128.32 128.522 127.635 127.739 -0.5660
GBP/JPY 143.738 145.111 143.594 144.147 0.4350
CHF/JPY 112.53 112.714 111.931 111.958 -0.5370
AUD/JPY 80.352 80.355 79.822 79.836 -0.5020
EUR/GBP 0.89287 0.89306 0.88407 0.88601 -0.0066
EUR/CHF 1.14015 1.14123 1.13772 1.14069 0.0005
GBP/CHF 1.27701 1.2891 1.27652 1.2872 0.0101

 

 

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1230 1.1265 1.1288 1.1324 1.1346 1.1382 1.1405
USD/JPY 112.10 112.45 112.68 113.03 113.26 113.61 113.84
GBP/USD 1.2569 1.2634 1.2699 1.2764 1.2829 1.2894 1.2959
USD/CHF 0.9984 1.0008 1.0046 1.0069 1.0107 1.0131 1.0168
USD/CAD 1.3054 1.3079 1.3117 1.3142 1.3180 1.3205 1.3243
EUR/JPY 126.52 127.08 127.41 127.97 128.30 128.85 129.18
GBP/JPY 141.94 142.77 143.46 144.28 144.97 145.80 146.49
CHF/JPY 110.91 111.42 111.69 112.20 112.47 112.98 113.25
AUD/JPY 79.12 79.47 79.65 80.00 80.19 80.54 80.72
EUR/GBP 0.8734 0.8787 0.8824 0.8877 0.8914 0.8967 0.9003
EUR/CHF 1.1350 1.1364 1.1385 1.1399 1.1420 1.1434 1.1456
GBP/CHF 1.2669 1.2717 1.2794 1.2843 1.2920 1.2969 1.3046

 

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.