23 Ноя 2018

FOREX Newsletter

FOREX Newsletter

November 23, 2018

 

Pulse of the Market

·      Markets and banks in the U.S were closed yesterday for the Thanksgiving holiday

·      The U.S Dollar was slightly lower as safe-haven demand remained subdued after a rebound in stocks

·      The U.S Department of Labor reported Wednesday that initial jobless claims rose by 3,000

·      Cable gained after reports that negotiators have made another breakthrough on the path to Brexit

 

The U.S Dollar ticked lower against a currency basket yesterday as a cautiously optimistic mood in markets dampened safe haven demand, while the euro edged higher amid hopes for a resolution to the row over Italy’s budget. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of six major currencies, edged down to an overnight low of 96.44 and was at 96.47. The dollar had weakened slightly on Wednesday following reports that the Federal Reserve could pause its rate rise cycle as early as next spring. The Fed is expected to raise rates for a fourth time this year at its December meeting. The U.S Dollar pulled back against most of the major currencies on Wednesday except for the Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc. The resilience of USD/JPY continues to surprise considering that most of today’s U.S. economic reports missed expectations. Durable goods orders dropped -4.4%, jobless claims increased and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index was revised lower. While existing home sales beat, it is becoming very clear that the momentum in the U.S economy is easing. The British pound gained sharply yesterday after reports that UK and EU negotiators have made another breakthrough on the path to Brexit. European Council President Donald Tusk said on Thursday morning that a political declaration on the UK and EU’s future relationship “agreed at negotiators’ level and agreed in principle at political level.” Prior to Tusk’s comments, an EU official said on Thursday morning that a 20-page declaration had been finalized ahead of an EU summit on Sunday where Prime Minister Theresa May hopes to have the Brexit divorce deal signed off. The news, which marks another major step forward in the Brexit process, sent the pound flying higher, gaining as much as 1.1% against the dollar. The Euro was a touch higher, with EUR/USD gaining 0.16% to trade at 1.1402 amid hopes that the row between Italy’s government and the European Union over Rome’s 2019 budget, which is in breach of euro zone fiscal rules, can be resolved. The Canadian dollar edged higher yesterday as the greenback broadly fell and Canada’s government weighed a proposal which could help soften the blow from price discounts on heavy crude generated by pipeline congestion.

 

Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
00:30 Nikkei Japan PMI Manufacturing (NOV) Medium     52.9
07:00 German Gross Domestic Product w.d.a. (YoY) (3Q) Medium   1.1% 1.1%
08:30 Markit/BME Germany Manufacturing PMI (NOV) Medium   52.2 52.2
08:30 Markit Germany Services PMI (NOV) Medium   54.5 54.7
09:00 Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (NOV) Medium   52.0 52.0
09:00 Markit Eurozone Services PMI (NOV) Medium   53.6 53.7
13:30 Canada Retail Sales (MoM) (SEP) Medium   0.0% -0.1%
13:30 Canada Consumer Price Index (YoY) (OCT) High   2.2% 2.2%
14:45 Markit US Manufacturing PMI (NOV) Medium   55.8 55.7
14:45 Markit US Services PMI (NOV) Medium   55.0 54.8
14:45 Markit US Composite PMI (NOV) Medium     54.9

Euro

The single currency briefly rallied to the day’s highs in yesterday’s session after Britain and the European Union agreed in principle to a text setting out their future relationship before a summit on Sunday. However, gains were limited as focus turned on the minutes of the European Central Bank’s October meeting. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1379 and a high of 1.1432 before closing the day around 1.1401 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen ticked higher against the U.S Dollar in yesterday trading session. On the release front, Japanese National Core CPI posted a gain of 1.0%, unchanged from the previous release. This matched the forecast. Markets and banks in the U.S were closed for the Thanksgiving holiday and there are no U.S events on the schedule. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 112.86 and a high of 113.21 before closing the day around 112.92 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound has taken off after reports that UK and EU negotiators have made another breakthrough on the path to Brexit. European Council President Donald Tusk said yesterday morning that a political declaration on the UK and EU’s future relationship “agreed at negotiators’ level and agreed in principle at political level.” Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.2767 and a high of 1.2926 before closing the day at 1.2875 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar edged higher against its U.S counterpart yesterday as the greenback broadly fell and Canada’s government weighed a proposal which could help soften the blow from price discounts on heavy crude generated by pipeline congestion. Recent weakening in the price of U.S oil has added to headwinds for Canada’s oil patch. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.3179 and a high of 1.3242 before closing the day at 1.3186 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar is undervalued and its Kiwi counterpart trades at a premium to fair value, according to analysts at Westpac. AUD/USD is 2% below fair value, arguably carrying too much weight from Australian political risks and the US-China trade war. The Australian Dollar has been hit hard in 2018 by a combination of factors.  Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7232 and a high of 0.7266 before closing the day at 0.7252 in the New York session.

 

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is issuing a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 50 and lies below the neutral zone. In general, the pair has gained 0.06%.

 

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish tone and MACD is indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 46 reading and lies below the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has gained 0.67%.

 

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is also indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 54 reading and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.24%.

 

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and below 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bearish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 53 and lies above the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.63%.

  

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading above 14 and below 50, 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish stance and MACD is also indicating a bearish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 43 and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.89%.

 

Appendix

  

FOREX Closing Prices for November 22, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.13811 1.14326 1.13797 1.14016 0.0018
USD/JPY 113.052 113.218 112.866 112.924 -0.1300
GBP/USD 1.27736 1.2926 1.27679 1.28756 0.0101
USD/CHF 0.9945 0.99549 0.99199 0.99491 0.0005
USD/CAD 1.32296 1.32429 1.31796 1.31869 -0.0042
EUR/JPY 128.708 129.079 128.65 128.787 0.0730
GBP/JPY 144.433 145.924 144.236 145.416 0.9660
CHF/JPY 113.651 113.86 113.428 113.45 -0.2240
AUD/JPY 82.068 82.227 81.666 81.897 -0.1930
EUR/GBP 0.89091 0.8921 0.8839 0.88529 -0.0056
EUR/CHF 1.13204 1.13552 1.1317 1.13442 0.0023
GBP/CHF 1.27061 1.28313 1.26952 1.28177 0.0113

 

  

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1324 1.1352 1.1377 1.1405 1.1430 1.1458 1.1482
USD/JPY 112.44 112.65 112.79 113.00 113.14 113.35 113.49
GBP/USD 1.2629 1.2698 1.2787 1.2857 1.2945 1.3015 1.3103
USD/CHF 0.9893 0.9906 0.9928 0.9941 0.9963 0.9976 0.9998
USD/CAD 1.3100 1.3140 1.3163 1.3203 1.3227 1.3266 1.3290
EUR/JPY 128.17 128.41 128.60 128.84 129.03 129.27 129.46
GBP/JPY 142.77 143.50 144.46 145.19 146.15 146.88 147.84
CHF/JPY 112.87 113.15 113.30 113.58 113.73 114.01 114.16
AUD/JPY 81.07 81.37 81.63 81.93 82.19 82.49 82.76
EUR/GBP 0.8739 0.8789 0.8821 0.8871 0.8903 0.8953 0.8985
EUR/CHF 1.1284 1.1301 1.1322 1.1339 1.1361 1.1377 1.1399
GBP/CHF 1.2595 1.2645 1.2732 1.2781 1.2868 1.2918 1.3004

 

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

20 Ноя 2018

Daily Market View

Tuesday, November 20, 2018
          U.S Stock Market

 

DJIA S & P 500 NASDAQ
25028 2696.25 6671.75
-1.56% -1.66% -3.03%

Stocks retreated sharply lower yesterday, with shares of technology and internet-related companies dragging the market lower. The main equity benchmarks saw losses accelerate in morning trade after a report showed home-builders’ confidence plummeted in November. U.S financial markets will be closed Thursday for the Thanksgiving Day holiday. The NASDAQ led the markets lower, closing down 219.4 points, or 3%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled 395.8 points, or 1.6%, and the S&P 500 index retreated 45.5 points, or 1.7%. Last week, the Dow posted a weekly decline of 2.2%, the S&P 500 index declined by 1.6% while the NASDAQ shed 2.2%. Investor anxiety, evidenced by last week’s declines, continued Monday, following a report on home-builder confidence that showed sector executives less upbeat than at any point in more than two years. Trade issues have been a key driver of volatility, as investors consider the possibility that U.S. tariff rates on a swath of Chinese goods could rise from 10% to 25% in January, as they will under current policy, absent a resolution.

 

Major Economic Releases for Today
Period Event GMT Forecast Previous

nov

Australia RBA Meeting Minutes 00:30    

oct

Japan Convenience Store Sales (YoY) 07:00   3.5%

oct

Switzerland Swiss Watch Exports (YoY) 07:00   -6.8%

oct

German Producer Price Index (YoY) 07:00 3.3% 3.2%

 

Australia RBA’s Lowe gives speech in Melbourne 08:20    

 

BOE’s Carney, Haldane, Cunliffe and Saunders Testify in London 10:00    

oct

U.S Housing Starts (MoM) 13:30 2.4% -5.3%

oct

U.S Building Permits (MoM) 13:30 -0.8% -0.6%

oct

Australia Westpac Leading Index (MoM) 23:30   -0.1%
Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.56% yesterday. The best performers of the session on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were Pfizer Inc., which rose 1.54% or 0.67 points to trade at 44.18 at the close. Meanwhile, The Travelers Companies Inc. added 1.36% or 1.75 points to end at 130.52 and Johnson & Johnson was up 1.19% or 1.74 points to 147.73 in late trade. The worst performers of the session were Boeing Co, which fell 4.47% or 15.01 points to trade at 320.94 at the close. Apple Inc. declined 3.96% or 7.67 points to end at 185.86 and Visa Inc. was down 3.87% or 5.42 points to 134.76.

 

 

 

NASDAQ 100

The tech heavy NASDAQ index fell 3.03%. The top performers on the NASDAQ Composite were Cesca Therapeutics Inc. which rose 51.32% to 0.4600, Akers Biosciences Inc. which was up 42.28% to settle at 1.750 and Yulong Eco-Materials Ltd which gained 25.69% to close at 6.410. The worst performers were Arcimoto Inc. which was down 21.77% to 2.30 in late trade, Sonoma Pharmaceuticals Inc. which lost 18.47% to settle at 0.901 and Champions Oncology Inc. which was down 17.89% to 10.1900 at the close.

 

 

Oil

Oil prices rose in choppy trade yesterday, under pressure from growing supply but supported by a reported drawdown of U.S oil inventories, potential EU sanctions on Iran and possible OPEC production cuts. U.S futures ended yesterday’s session 68 cents higher at $56.76, after dropping as far as $55.08, near last week’s one-year low. Traders said futures pared losses when energy information provider Genscape reported that crude inventories fell in the latest week. EU foreign ministers endorsed a French government decision to sanction Iranian nationals accused of a bomb plot in France, three diplomats said. The United States has granted waivers to some of Iran’s oil customers. OPEC, led by Saudi Arabia, is pushing for the group and its partners to reduce output by 1 million to 1.4 million barrels per day to prevent a build-up of unused fuel. U.S. crude stockpiles have grown for eight straight weeks, and data last week showed inventories swelled by the most in more than a year.

 

 

Precious and Base Metals

Gold inched up yesterday as the dollar fell, but the metal stayed in a tight range as investors held off on big moves ahead of the U.S Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday. Spot gold was 0.2 percent higher at $1,224.13 per ounce after hitting a one-week high of $1,225.29 in the previous session. U.S gold futures settled up $2.30, or 0.2 percent, at $1,225.30. The dollar fell to two-week lows after Federal Reserve officials’ comments about the U.S. economy suggested the central bank may be nearing the end of its tightening cycle. A softer dollar makes gold cheaper for holders of other currencies. There has been a lot of back and forth language (on) whether or not the Federal Reserve will implement a neutral interest rate or will they take it above neutral, temporarily. Markets are waiting for a little more clarity on (a possible) December rate hike as well as the outlook for 2019. Gold is taking a sideways approach in this environment. Trading volumes are expected to remain subdued before Thanksgiving. I expect prices to consolidate around the $1,220 level throughout the remainder of the week. There is not a lot of news action in the market. We are expecting the Fed to raise interest rates at the next meeting in December. Most likely that will keep gold from getting above the recent highs. Higher rates dampen the appeal of gold, which pays no interest and incurs costs to store and insure. Indicative of investor sentiment towards bullion, holdings of SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, fell 0.2 percent to their lowest in a week on Friday. Hedge funds and money managers boosted their net short position in gold to the highest in five weeks. Palladium fell 1.4 percent to $1,160.70 per ounce, after hitting a record high of $1,185.40 in the previous session. Silver rose 0.2 percent to $14.43 an ounce.

 

 

 

 

Traditional Agricultures

Soybean futures fell 2.1 percent yesterday, hitting their lowest since Nov. 8, as a lack of consensus at a meeting of Asia-Pacific leaders cooled hopes of Washington and Beijing resolving a trade dispute that has disrupted U.S soybean exports to China. Wheat prices also fell sharply, shedding 1.7 percent as investors continued to wait for an upturn in U.S exports.

 

 

 

Futures Settlement Price Monday, November 19, 2018
Instrument Contract Open High Low Settlement Net Change
DJIA DJM18 25384 25490 24888 25028 -416
S & P 500 SPM18 2732.75 2748 2681.5 2696.25 -45.75
NASDAQ 100 NDM18 6874.75 6933.75 6632 6671.75 -222
Hang Seng HSH18 26080 26373 26063 26284 173
Nikkei 225 NKH18 21685 21850 21620 21840 205
FTSE 100 FTH18 7017 7064.5 6963.5 6989 -34
Gold GCJ18 1223.7 1226 1218.3 1224.5 1.6
Silver SIK18 1438 1438 1436 1436.5 0
Copper HGK18 277.65 280.9 276 279.9 -0.3
Crude Oil CLK18 57.26 57.54 55.24 57.35 0.69
Wheat WK18 506.25 507 495.75 498.5 -8
Soybeans SK18 890.25 891.25 871 874 -17.5
Corn CK18 364.5 366 361 362 -2.5

 

 

Daily Swings  (The Pivot Levels)
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2
DJM18 24179 24533 24781 25135 25383 25737 25985
SPM18 2602.67 2642.08 2669.17 2708.58 2735.67 2775.08 2802.17
NDM18 6256.17 6444.08 6557.92 6745.83 6859.67 7047.58 7161.42
HSH18 25797 25930 26107 26240 26417 26550 26727
NKH18 21460 21540 21690 21770 21920 22000 22150
FTH18 6845.83 6904.67 6946.83 7005.67 7047.83 7106.67 7148.83
GCJ18 1212.17 1215.23 1219.87 1222.93 1227.57 1230.63 1235.27
SIK18 1433.67 1434.83 1435.67 1436.83 1437.67 1438.83 1439.67
HGK18 272.07 274.03 276.97 278.93 281.87 283.83 286.77
CLK18 53.58 54.41 55.88 56.71 58.18 59.01 60.48
WK18 482.58 489.17 493.83 500.42 505.08 511.67 516.33
SK18 846.00 858.50 866.25 878.75 886.50 899.00 906.75
CK18 355.00 358.00 360.00 363.00 365.00 368.00 370.00

 

 Source: – News & Quotes (Courtesy:  Reuters)                                                                    

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

 

 

 

 

20 Ноя 2018

FOREX Newsletter

FOREX Newsletter

November 20, 2018
 

 

Pulse of the Market

·      The U.S Dollar fell to fresh lows against the Euro, Swiss Franc, and Japanese Yen

·      The NAHB housing market index failed to rebound like economists anticipated

·      A weaker than expected Eurozone current account balance failed to stop the euro from rising

·      Sterling bulls put up a fight as the currency trades higher for the second day in a row

It is a holiday week in the United States but yesterday’s moves in forex shows how important it is to not mistake less participation with consolidation. The U.S Dollar fell to fresh lows against the Euro, Swiss Franc, and Japanese Yen as stocks resumed their slide. The forex market will trade continuously but equity and bond markets in the U.S will be closed on Thursday with half days for both on Friday. Currencies actually have a history of breaking out or reaching new milestones the week of Thanksgiving. Just take a look at the charts below. Last year, EUR/USD and GBP/USD hit a 1 month high Thanksgiving Day while USD/JPY fell to a 2 month low the day before Thanksgiving. In 2016, the EUR/USD dropped to an 11 month low the week of Thanksgiving while USD/JPY rose to a 7 month high. There was no meaningful movement in sterling that year. In 2015, EUR/USD and GBP/USD fell to a 7-month low the week of Thanksgiving as USD/JPY consolidated. Fundamentally, there’s not much on the U.S calendar this week and it seems like any weakness in second tier reports is being used as an excuse to continue selling dollars. Yesterday, the NAHB housing market index failed to rebound like economists anticipated and this was enough to send the dollar spiraling lower. With the momentum skewed to the downside, investors completely ignored Fed President and FOMC voter Williams’ positive outlook – he described the economy as doing very well with job growth good. Today’s housing starts and building permits reports are not expected to alter the dollar’s trend. Meanwhile a weaker than expected Eurozone current account balance failed to stop the Euro from rising. Not only did EUR/USD end Friday above the 20-day SMA for the first time since September but it’s now also trading above the 200-SMA on the 4 hour, something that it hasn’t done in 2 months. Of all the regions in the world, the Eurozone and Canada have the most important economic reports scheduled for release this week and they are all due on Friday. Recent evidence suggests that the Eurozone economy is slowing and there’s a very good chance the PMIs will confirm that. Sterling bulls are putting up a fight as the currency trades higher for the second day in a row. The focus is Brexit – Prime Minister May is still working on getting a deal approved by Parliament while Tory MPs are focused on getting enough letters submitted for a no confidence vote. There will be intensive discussions this week according to May and its unlikely that they will amount to anything.

 

Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
00:30 RBA Meeting Minutes (NOV 6) Medium      
07:00 German Producer Price Index (YoY) (OCT) Low   3.3% 3.2%
08:20 RBA’s Lowe gives speech in Melbourne High      
10:00 BOE’s Carney, Haldane, Cunliffe and Saunders Testify in London High      
13:30 U.S Housing Starts (MoM) (OCT) Medium   2.4% -5.3%
13:30 U.S Building Permits (MoM) (OCT) Medium   -0.8% -0.6%
18:00 Bank of Canada’s Wilkins Speech in Montreal Low      
23:30 Australia Westpac Leading Index (MoM) (OCT) Medium     -0.1%

 

Euro

The single currency traded higher. On the release front, there were no major events on the schedule. The Eurozone’s current surplus dropped sharply to EUR 16.9 billion, short of the forecast of EUR 24.2 billion. This marked the smallest surplus since July 2014. Today, the Eurozone releases PPI and the U.S publishes building permits and housing starts. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1392 and a high of 1.1463 before closing the day around 1.1452 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen pair posted slight losses yesterday. On the release front, Japan’s trade surplus rose to JPY 0.30 trillion, lower than the estimate of JPY 0.48 trillion. There are no major U.S. events on the schedule. The Bank of Japan has no plans to alter its ultra-accommodative monetary policy, as inflation remains well below the BoJ target of around 2 percent. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 112.40 and a high of 112.85 before closing the day around 112.53 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound edged higher against the U.S Dollar and the majority of its other peers at the start of this week’s session as a defiant Theresa May pushes ahead with her controversial Brexit plan. Mrs. May promoted the deal by outlining how it will allow the UK to control immigration and lead to migration becoming more skills-based. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.2792 and a high of 1.2882 before closing the day at 1.2849 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar edged lower against its U.S counterpart yesterday, straying close to the nearly four-month low touched last week, as oil prices slipped and global risk appetite remained in check. The price of oil, one of Canada’s major exports, fell by about 1 per cent in yesterday’s session, snapping a three-day streak of gains.  Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.3139 and a high of 1.3199 before closing the day at 1.3168 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar was under pressure to start the new trading week yesterday, pulling back from multi-month highs struck on Friday. Renewed trade tensions between the United States and China are behind the latest selloff, helping to partially offset more cautious language from leading U.S Federal Reserve officials. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7275 and a high of 0.7323 before closing the day at 0.7290 in the New York session.

 

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is issuing a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 49 and lies below the neutral zone. In general, the pair has gained 0.04%.

 

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish tone and MACD is indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 40 reading and lies below the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.14%.

 

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is also indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 56 reading and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.84%.

 

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and below 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bearish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 62 and lies above the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has gained 0.16%.

  

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading above 14 and below 50, 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish stance and MACD is also indicating a bearish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 39 and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.48%.

 

Appendix

  

FOREX Closing Prices for November 19, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.14149 1.14631 1.13926 1.14528 0.0036
USD/JPY 112.823 112.856 112.402 112.535 -0.3120
GBP/USD 1.28355 1.28822 1.27921 1.28493 0.0019
USD/CHF 0.99959 1.00053 0.99226 0.99337 -0.0061
USD/CAD 1.31539 1.31997 1.31391 1.31681 0.0018
EUR/JPY 128.804 129.044 128.443 128.898 0.0490
GBP/JPY 144.833 145.292 144.269 144.6 -0.2040
CHF/JPY 112.836 113.294 112.607 113.252 0.3770
AUD/JPY 82.502 82.591 81.841 82.064 -0.6930
EUR/GBP 0.88917 0.89308 0.88654 0.89105 0.0014
EUR/CHF 1.14166 1.1421 1.13684 1.13778 -0.0034
GBP/CHF 1.28334 1.28663 1.27413 1.27639 -0.0062

  

 

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1339 1.1366 1.1409 1.1436 1.1480 1.1507 1.1550
USD/JPY 111.89 112.14 112.34 112.60 112.79 113.05 113.25
GBP/USD 1.2710 1.2751 1.2800 1.2841 1.2890 1.2931 1.2980
USD/CHF 0.9820 0.9871 0.9902 0.9954 0.9985 1.0037 1.0068
USD/CAD 1.3078 1.3108 1.3138 1.3169 1.3199 1.3230 1.3259
EUR/JPY 127.95 128.19 128.55 128.80 129.15 129.40 129.75
GBP/JPY 143.13 143.70 144.15 144.72 145.17 145.74 146.19
CHF/JPY 112.12 112.36 112.81 113.05 113.50 113.74 114.18
AUD/JPY 80.99 81.42 81.74 82.17 82.49 82.92 83.24
EUR/GBP 0.8808 0.8837 0.8874 0.8902 0.8939 0.8968 0.9004
EUR/CHF 1.1305 1.1336 1.1357 1.1389 1.1410 1.1442 1.1462
GBP/CHF 1.2590 1.2666 1.2715 1.2791 1.2840 1.2916 1.2965

 

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

19 Ноя 2018

Daily Market View

Daily Market View

Monday, November 19, 2018
          U.S Stock Market

 

DJIA S & P 500 NASDAQ
25444 2742.00 6839.75
+0.49% +0.22% -0.15%

U.S stocks closed mostly higher Friday after comments from President Donald Trump once again sparked hopes that a trade dispute with China could be resolved in the near term. But the NASDAQ bucked the trend to finish lower as a decline in chip maker shares, led by Nvidia Corp., dented sentiment in the technology sector. The Dow Jones climbed 123.95 points, or 0.5% and the S&P 500 index rose 6.07 points, or 0.2%. The NASDAQ shed 11.16 points, or 0.2%. For the week, the Dow fell 2.2%, the S&P 500 dropped 1.6%, while the NASDAQ declined 2.2%. Trump expressed guarded optimism over U.S.-China trade ties, telling reporters that it may not be necessary to add new tariffs or raise existing ones on Chinese imports, and that he doesn’t want to “put China in a bad position.” Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are scheduled to meet at the sidelines of the G-20 summit in Buenos Aires later this month. Uncertainties around tariff spats have taken center stage this week and the vacillating narratives around progress in negotiations continue to whipsaw equity benchmarks.

 

 

Major Economic Releases for Today
Period Event GMT Forecast Previous

nov

U.K Rightmove House Prices (YoY) 00:01   0.9%

 

BOJ Outright Bond Purchase 1~3 Years 01:10    

 

BOJ Kuroda speaks at EuroPlus in Tokyo 03:30    

sep

Euro-Zone Current Account s.a. (euros) 09:00   23.9b

nov

Switzerland Domestic Sight Deposits 09:00   475.6b

sep

Euro-Zone Construction Output w.d.a. (YoY) 10:00   2.5%

nov

U.S NAHB Housing Market Index 15:00 67 68

 

U.S Fed’s Williams Speaks in Moderated Q&A in the Bronx 15:45    

nov

ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Index 22:30   119.8
 

Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.49%. The best performers of the session on the Dow Jones were The Travelers Companies Inc., which rose 2.53% or 3.18 points to trade at 128.77 at the close. Meanwhile, UnitedHealth Group Incorporated added 2.33% or 6.17 points to end at 271.11 and McDonald’s Corporation was up 2.20% or 4.03 points to 187.59 in late trade. The worst performers of the session were Walmart Inc., which fell 1.86% or 1.85 points to trade at 97.69 at the close. Boeing Co declined 1.65% or 5.62 points to end at 335.95 and Visa Inc. was down 1.17% or 1.66 points to 140.18.

 

 

 

NASDAQ 100

The tech heavy NASDAQ index declined 0.15%. The top performers on the NASDAQ Composite were TESARO Inc. which rose 31.48% to 34.96, EMC Insurance Group Inc. which was up 30.26% to settle at 31.25 and The Dixie Group Inc. which gained 15.98% to close at 0.980. The worst performers were Rewalk Robotics Ltd which was down 45.45% to 0.24 in late trade, Limbach Holdings Inc. which lost 27.46% to settle at 6.05 and Euroseas Ltd which was down 25.45% to 1.230 at the close.

 

 

Oil

Oil ended slightly firmer after volatile trading on Friday, supported by expectations that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries would agree to cut output next month, though prices fell for the sixth straight week amid global oversupply concerns. OPEC kingpin Saudi Arabia is keen for the major producers to cut output by about 1.4 million barrels per day, around 1.5 percent of global supply, to support the market, sources told Reuters this week. But other producers, including Russia, have been reluctant to agree to a cut. U.S. crude settled unchanged at $56.46 a barrel after trading between $55.89 and $57.96. The contract, which had its steepest one-day loss in more than three years on Tuesday, fell 5.6 percent in the week, also its sixth straight weekly decline.  After Tuesday’s sharp fall, the market was due for a slight correction, and was now stabilizing. OPEC ministers meet on Dec. 6 in Vienna to decide on production policy for the next six months amid a growing surplus in world markets.

 

 

 

Precious and Base Metals

Gold rose as much as 1 percent on Friday as the dollar fell after U.S Federal Reserve officials made cautions comments that fed doubt about the outlook for interest rate hikes, while palladium hit a record high driven by worries about short supplies. Spot gold rose 0.7 percent to $1,221.04 an ounce. The session high was the highest since Nov. 8 at $1,225.29. Gold was on track to gain about 1 percent this week. U.S gold futures gained 0.5 percent to $1,221.50. Two Fed officials cautioned that global economic growth was slowing and the dollar fell to one-week lows against a basket of major currencies, making bullion cheaper for buyers using other currencies. When you get people talking about the economy slowing down, they may not raise rates so quickly or as aggressively and that is bearish for the dollar. Further support for gold came from weaker global stock markets and lower U.S. Treasury yields. A weaker dollar and lower yields are pretty much tailor made to benefit gold. Palladium climbed 1.7 percent to $1,176.70 an ounce, up more than 5 percnt since the start of the week. The metal hit a record high of $1,185.40 during the session, within a whisker of parity with gold for the first time in 16 years. The market is in a big deficit. There is a lot of funds interest in palladium because the funds like to buy something when it’s moving, but the supply is of concern now. Used mainly in emissions-reducing auto catalysts for vehicles, palladium, the only precious metal on track for an annual gain, was also helped by speculation Beijing may provide a stimulus to Chinese auto markets. Car dealers in the world’s biggest car market have been pushing for Beijing to support the sector. Silver rose 0.3 percent at $14.33 an ounce, on course for a weekly gain of over 1 percent. Copper was set to end the week 2.5 percent higher as signs of supply tightness supported prices, but worries about the outcome of the U.S.-China trade dispute limited gains.

 

 

 

 

Traditional Agricultures

Soybean futures ended higher on Friday after rebounding on President Donald Trump’s comments that his administration may not have to impose further tariffs on China, the world’s biggest soybean buyer. Wheat added to early advances on Friday.

 

 

 

Futures Settlement Price Friday, November 16, 2018
Instrument Contract Open High Low Settlement Net Change
DJIA DJM18 25313 25502 25093 25444 131
S & P 500 SPM18 2731.75 2748.75 2708.5 2742 6.5
NASDAQ 100 NDM18 6876 6912 6805.75 6893.75 -22.25
Hang Seng HSH18 26119 26187 25784 26111 72
Nikkei 225 NKH18 21860 21870 21630 21635 -170
FTSE 100 FTH18 7061.5 7087.5 6961 7023 -67
Gold GCJ18 1213.6 1225.7 1213.4 1222.9 9.3
Silver SIK18 1425.5 1438.5 1421 1436.5 11
Copper HGK18 274.35 280.25 273.3 280.2 5.7
Crude Oil CLK18 56.75 58.13 56.08 56.66 -0.09
Wheat WK18 505 508.25 502.5 506.5 2
Soybeans SK18 889.25 894.5 881.25 891.5 2.5
Corn CK18 367 368.5 363 364.5 -2.5

 

 

Daily Swings  (The Pivot Levels)
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2
DJM18 24782 24937 25191 25346 25600 25755 26009
SPM18 2677.17 2692.83 2717.42 2733.08 2757.67 2773.33 2797.92
NDM18 6722.75 6764.25 6829.00 6870.50 6935.25 6976.75 7041.50
HSH18 25465 25624 25868 26027 26271 26430 26674
NKH18 21313 21472 21553 21712 21793 21952 22033
FTH18 6833.67 6897.33 6960.17 7023.83 7086.67 7150.33 7213.17
GCJ18 1203.33 1208.37 1215.63 1220.67 1227.93 1232.97 1240.23
SIK18 1408.00 1414.50 1425.50 1432.00 1443.00 1449.50 1460.50
HGK18 268.63 270.97 275.58 277.92 282.53 284.87 289.48
CLK18 53.73 54.91 55.78 56.96 57.83 59.01 59.88
WK18 497.50 500.00 503.25 505.75 509.00 511.50 514.75
SK18 870.42 875.83 883.67 889.08 896.92 902.33 910.17
CK18 356.67 359.83 362.17 365.33 367.67 370.83 373.17

 

 

 Source: – News & Quotes (Courtesy:  Reuters)                                                                    

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

 

19 Ноя 2018

FOREX Newsletter

FOREX Newsletter

November 19, 2018

 

Pulse of the Market

·      Fed officials are growing less hawkish with Chair Powell expressing concerns of next year’s headwinds

·      GBP will continue to be one of the biggest stories if there will be a no confidence motion on PM May

·      The Euro closed above the 20-day simple moving average for the first time in over a month

·      AUD ripped higher on the hope that President Trump will forgo another round of tariffs on China

Investors are bailing out of U.S Dollars and their recent moves are important because some of the factors that drove the Dollar higher this year are beginning to change and if that continues the Dollar’s Bull Run will be over. It is still too early to tell but the momentum is certainly skewed to the downside. There have been 4 main factors driving the dollar higher this year – economic outperformance, rising interest rates, equity market pressure and trade policy. Although the latest economic reports were decent with consumer price growth rising and consumer spending growing at its fastest pace in 5 months, core demand growth is not as impressive. But more importantly, Federal Reserve officials are growing less hawkish with Chair Powell expressing concerns about next year’s headwinds last week and Vice Chair Clarida adding that there is some evidence of global slowing and they need to factor in the global outlook. Clarida in particular does not expect a big increase in inflation this year. With that in mind, both central bankers are still confident enough in the domestic economy to proceed with a December rate hike but there’s a good chance that it will be accompanied by a less hawkish outlook. Sterling will continue to be one of the biggest stories as we wait to see if there will be a no confidence motion on Prime Minister May. Last week, the British pound dropped more than 1.5% in one day as Prime Minister May’s Brexit deal dissolves into flames. The prospect of a general election ahead of the Brexit deadline in March would only create more chaos in what is already a highly volatile situation. The initial reaction in the market would likely send cable towards the 1.2500 level. Data has also been terrible with CPI growth easing and retail sales falling. If this data trend continues, it will be difficult for GBP to sustain any recovery. Despite all of the UK’s troubles, it was a great week for the Euro, which closed above the 20-day simple moving average for the first time in over a month. The currency was completely unfazed by last week’s softer economic reports including Germany’s ZEW survey, Q3 GDP and Eurozone trade balance. Euro traded almost exclusively on anti-dollar flows and risk appetite and we expect the same in the coming week as the currency looks past any weakness in Germany’s PPI report or Eurozone PMIs. With stocks recovering and the dollar turning lower, we see EUR/USD hitting 1.15 and possibly even 1.1550. All 3 of the commodity currencies traded higher on Friday with the Australian hitting a 2 month high and the New Zealand dollar hitting a 4 month high.

 

 

Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
00:01 U.K Rightmove House Prices (YoY) (NOV) Medium     0.9%
01:10 BOJ Outright Bond Purchase 1~3 Years Low      
03:30 BOJ Kuroda speaks at EuroPlus in Tokyo High      
09:00 Euro-Zone Current Account s.a. (euros) (SEP) Low     23.9b
09:00 Switzerland Total Sight Deposits CHF (NOV 16) Low     577.2
10:00 Euro-Zone Construction Output w.d.a. (YoY) (SEP) Low     2.5%
15:00 U.S NAHB Housing Market Index (NOV) Medium   67 68
15:45 U.S Fed’s Williams Speaks in Moderated Q&A in the Bronx Low      

 

Euro

The single currency gained in Friday’s session as the Euro zone inflation rose in October at its fastest pace in nearly six years, driven by energy prices, the European Union statistics agency said on Friday, confirming its earlier estimate. The core inflation measure which excludes energy and food was revised down. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1320 and a high of 1.1418 before closing the day around 1.1416 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen pair fell broadly on Friday in the wake of cautious comments from two U.S. Federal Reserve officials about global economic growth, while sterling rose following losses tied to fears about a Brexit deal. The greenback fell to one-week lows versus the euro and a two-week trough against the yen following comments from Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 112.62 and a high of 113.61 before closing the day around 112.84 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound rises against the euro and the dollar after suffering the biggest one-day sell-off since 2016 on Thursday. Sterling has not fully recovered its losses, but it has had a much better day, particularly against the dollar. Investors are bracing themselves for the twists and turns to come, as Theresa May fights to keep her Brexit plan. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.2758 and a high of 1.2875 before closing the day at 1.2830 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar strengthened to its highest in more than one week on Friday, extending this week’s gain as the greenback broadly fell and domestic data showed that factory sales edged higher in September. The U.S. dollar fell broadly in the wake of cautious comments from two U.S. Federal Reserve officials about global economic growth.  Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.3124 and a high of 1.3184 before closing the day at 1.3149 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar continues to hang tough against its US cousin, holding still above the long downtrend line that had held sway for much of this year, until November 1 indeed. AUD/USD may manage to stay around current levels in the week ahead, assuming the overall risk appetite that tends to favor the Aussie holds firm. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7248 and a high of 0.7334 before closing the day at 0.7333 in the New York session.

 

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is issuing a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 48 and lies below the neutral zone. In general, the pair has gained 0.11%.

 

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish tone and MACD is indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 41 reading and lies below the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.21%.

 

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is also indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 64 reading and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.12%.

 

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and below 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bearish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 61 and lies above the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has gained 0.32%.

  

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading above 14 and below 50, 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish stance and MACD is also indicating a bearish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 41 and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.24%.

 

Appendix

  

FOREX Closing Prices for November 16, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.1327 1.14187 1.13202 1.14169 0.0091
USD/JPY 113.612 113.615 112.624 112.847 -0.7780
GBP/USD 1.27724 1.28758 1.27589 1.28306 0.0058
USD/CHF 1.00616 1.00856 0.99896 0.99945 -0.0070
USD/CAD 1.31789 1.31843 1.31248 1.31498 -0.0026
EUR/JPY 128.696 128.87 128.1 128.849 0.1370
GBP/JPY 145.175 145.421 144.571 144.804 -0.3040
CHF/JPY 112.896 112.911 112.166 112.875 0.0170
AUD/JPY 82.649 82.786 82.083 82.757 0.0980
EUR/GBP 0.88604 0.89028 0.88224 0.88961 0.0028
EUR/CHF 1.13967 1.14319 1.13929 1.14122 0.0010
GBP/CHF 1.28554 1.29451 1.2811 1.28257 -0.0031

 

 

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1253 1.1287 1.1352 1.1385 1.1450 1.1484 1.1549
USD/JPY 111.45 112.04 112.44 113.03 113.43 114.02 114.42
GBP/USD 1.2651 1.2705 1.2768 1.2822 1.2885 1.2939 1.3002
USD/CHF 0.9865 0.9927 0.9961 1.0023 1.0057 1.0119 1.0153
USD/CAD 1.3062 1.3093 1.3122 1.3153 1.3181 1.3212 1.3241
EUR/JPY 127.57 127.84 128.34 128.61 129.11 129.38 129.88
GBP/JPY 143.59 144.08 144.44 144.93 145.29 145.78 146.14
CHF/JPY 111.65 111.91 112.39 112.65 113.14 113.40 113.88
AUD/JPY 81.60 81.84 82.30 82.54 83.00 83.25 83.70
EUR/GBP 0.8764 0.8793 0.8845 0.8874 0.8925 0.8954 0.9006
EUR/CHF 1.1354 1.1373 1.1393 1.1412 1.1432 1.1451 1.1471
GBP/CHF 1.2642 1.2727 1.2776 1.2861 1.2910 1.2995 1.3044

 

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

16 Ноя 2018

Daily Market View

Daily Market View

Friday, November 16, 2018
          U.S Stock Market

 

DJIA S & P 500 NASDAQ
25313 2735.50 6916.00
+0.82% +0.96% +1.63%

U.S equities rebounded on reports that the U.S-China trade picture is brightening. The pound plunged as the Brexit process threw the U.K government into turmoil. The dollar was little changed. Industrials surged earlier yesterday, sending the S&P 500 to session highs, after reports that trade negotiators were increasing efforts to reach an accord before the G20 summit later this month. Technology, materials and energy stocks also reacted positively to the news. Crude extended Wednesday’s rebound from a record losing streak. Treasuries jumped. For all the worries assailing investors — on top of Brexit is the ongoing trade dispute and Italian budget stress — they are at least receiving a steady message from the U.S central bank. In a question-and-answer session late Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell played down recent turbulence in equities, saying volatility was only one of many factors that board members take into account when setting policy. Emerging-market shares rallied and their currencies strengthened.

 

Major Economic Releases for Today
Period Event GMT Forecast Previous

oct

German Wholesale Price Index (YoY) 07:00   3.5%

 

ECB President Draghi Speaks in Frankfurt 08:30    

oct

Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (YoY) 10:00 2.2% 2.1%

sep

Canada Manufacturing Sales (MoM) 13:30 0.1% -0.4%

oct

U.S Industrial Production (MoM) 14:15 0.2% 0.3%

oct

U.S Manufacturing (SIC) Production 14:15 0.2% 0.2%

nov

U.S Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity 16:00 10 8

nov

Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count 18:00   1081

sep

U.S Net Long-term TIC Flows 21:00   $131.8b
Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.83%. The best performers of the session on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were Cisco Systems Inc., which rose 5.50% or 2.44 points to trade at 46.77 at the close. Meanwhile, 3M Company added 3.46% or 6.85 points to end at 204.91 and Caterpillar Inc. was up 3.45% or 4.32 points to 129.42 in late trade. The worst performers of the session were Walmart Inc., which fell 1.96% or 1.99 points to trade at 99.54 at the close. Home Depot Inc. declined 1.41% or 2.54 points to end at 177.36 and Nike Inc. was down 1.16% or 0.87 points to 74.33.

 

 

 

NASDAQ 100

The NASDAQ index gained 1.72%. The top performers on the NASDAQ Composite were AGM Group Holdings Inc Class A which rose 46.14% to 35.98, Uniqure NV which was up 35.66% to settle at 30.93 and SITO Mobile Ltd which gained 24.99% to close at 1.200. The worst performers were CDTi Advanced Materials Inc. which was down 58.89% to 0.5920 in late trade, Remark Holdings Inc. which lost 40.24% to settle at 1.960 and Revolution Lighting Technologies which was down 39.28% to 0.8501 at the close.

 

 

Oil

Oil futures rose yesterday, steadying after this week’s steep losses as fuel stockpile declines in the United States helped offset concerns about a potentially oversupplied market next year. Prices have also been supported by OPEC signaling possible output cuts in 2019. U.S crude futures were up 19 cents at $56.44. Prices pared gains after data from the U.S Energy Information Administration showed crude inventories jumped 10.3 million barrels in last week, the biggest weekly build since February 2017. Analysts in a Reuters poll had expected an increase of 3.2 million barrels. Gasoline stocks fell 1.4 million barrels, while distillate stockpiles drew down by 3.6 million barrels, the EIA data showed. OPEC, led by Saudi Arabia, is considering a cut of up to 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd) next year to avoid the kind of build in global inventories. Oil prices shrug the (EIA) data off so far. One explanation could be that a substantial production cut by OPEC becomes more likely.

 

 

Precious and Base Metals

Gold hit a near one-week peak yesterday as investors sought cover from market turmoil after Britain’s long-awaited draft agreement to leave the European Union was thrown into chaos, helping the metal hold its ground against a rising dollar. British Prime Minister Theresa May battled to save a draft divorce deal with the EU after her Brexit secretary and other ministers quit in protest and Eurosceptic lawmakers stepped up efforts to topple her. Spot gold was up 0.3 percent at $1,214.79 per ounce after touching its highest since Nov. 9 at $1,216.27 earlier in the session and moving away from a one-month low of $1,195.90 hit on Tuesday. U.S gold futures settled up $4.90, or 0.40 percent, at $1,215 per ounce. Uncertainty around Brexit is the biggest factor right now. It’s becoming top of the news again. People are running to the safety of the hard assets such as commodities including gold and crude, and also the dollar. If gold can hold above the $1,209 level, we could see it rise to $1,235. The dollar held its gains versus a basket of currencies as data showed a stronger-than-expected increase in domestic retail sales in October. The currency has emerged as a dominant safe-haven asset this year, denting the appeal for gold, which has fallen 11 percent from an April peak, against the backdrop of a U.S-China trade row and rising U.S interest rates. Geo-political risk remains high, it should support gold and lead to gains into year-end and in 2019. This is seen in the political turmoil today and increased uncertainty regarding the outlook for Brexit. The trade war shows signs of possibly easing, with U.S President Donald Trump expected to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping at a G20 summit in Argentina this month. Silver was up 1.3 percent at $14.31 per ounce. It fell to $13.85 in the previous session, a level last seen on Jan. 21, 2016. Base metal prices fell in the last one week after strong US PPI (Producer Price Index) data and on fears of rising US interest rates in December.

 

 

 

 

Traditional Agricultures

Soybean futures rose for a second session yesterday as fresh export sales, slower than expected harvesting and hopes that Washington and Beijing will resume trade talks helped the oilseed market to recoup some of its recent losses.

 

 

 

Futures Settlement Price Thursday, November 15, 2018
Instrument Contract Open High Low Settlement Net Change
DJIA DJM18 25074 25347 24780 25313 271
S & P 500 SPM18 2701.75 2736.75 2671 2735.5 37
NASDAQ 100 NDM18 6780 6920.25 6711.75 6916 147.75
Hang Seng HSH18 25843 26131 25550 26039 492
Nikkei 225 NKH18 21725 21825 21610 21805 -15
FTSE 100 FTH18 7033.5 7092 6972.5 7090 84.5
Gold GCJ18 1211.4 1216.7 1206.9 1213.6 2.4
Silver SIK18 1409.5 1431.5 1406 1425.5 16
Copper HGK18 271.15 276.6 270.3 274.5 3.45
Crude Oil CLK18 56.21 57.44 55.77 56.75 0.58
Wheat WK18 503.25 508.75 503 504.5 1.75
Soybeans SK18 883.5 897 883.5 889 5.75
Corn CK18 366.5 371.25 366.5 367 0.5

 

 

Daily Swings  (The Pivot Levels)
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2
DJM18 24379 24580 24946 25147 25513 25714 26080
SPM18 2626.33 2648.67 2692.08 2714.42 2757.83 2780.17 2823.58
NDM18 6569.92 6640.83 6778.42 6849.33 6986.92 7057.83 7195.42
HSH18 25101 25326 25682 25907 26263 26488 26844
NKH18 21453 21532 21668 21747 21883 21962 22098
FTH18 6891.50 6932.00 7011.00 7051.50 7130.50 7171.00 7250.00
GCJ18 1198.30 1202.60 1208.10 1212.40 1217.90 1222.20 1227.70
SIK18 1385.00 1395.50 1410.50 1421.00 1436.00 1446.50 1461.50
HGK18 264.70 267.50 271.00 273.80 277.30 280.10 283.60
CLK18 54.20 54.98 55.87 56.65 57.54 58.32 59.21
WK18 496.33 499.67 502.08 505.42 507.83 511.17 513.58
SK18 869.17 876.33 882.67 889.83 896.17 903.33 909.67
CK18 360.50 363.50 365.25 368.25 370.00 373.00 374.75

 

 

 Source: – News & Quotes (Courtesy:  Reuters)                                                                    

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

 

16 Ноя 2018

FOREX Newsletter  

FOREX Newsletter

November 16, 2018

 

Pulse of the Market

·      U.S retail sales rebounded with a gain of 0.7% in October, after a decline of -0.1% a month earlier

·      Japan’s economy contracted in the Q3, as GDP fell 0.3%, which was in line with expectations

·      The sterling tumbled after British ministers resigned in protest against a draft Brexit agreement

·      Australia’s economy created 32.8k new jobs during October, up from 7.8k in September

The U.S Dollar was higher yesterday as jobless claims data remained in line with a strong economy, supporting a Federal Reserve rate increase. The U.S Dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of six major currencies, rose 0.32% to 96.97. The number of people who filed for unemployment assistance in the U.S. rose by 2,000 to a seasonally adjusted 216,000 from the previous week’s total of 214,000. The numbers give support to the Federal Reserve gradually increasing interest rates. Investors are also looking ahead to comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell in Houston, Texas. On Wednesday, Powell said the U.S economy was strong and indicated that the central bank will continue to raise rates in 2019, albeit at a gradual pace. The sterling tumbled yesterday after British ministers resigned in protest against a draft Brexit agreement, rekindling fears of a chaotic departure for Britain from the European Union in 4-1/2 months. Traders flocked into the perceived safety of the dollar and yen as the pound swung wildly this week over Brexit. On Thursday, British Prime Minister Theresa May said she won the backing of her senior ministers for a draft divorce deal, but many in her government are unconvinced and on Friday her Brexit minister Dominic Raab, and other ministers, resigned. Heightened political uncertainty in the UK kept the pound on volatile ground. Japanese Yen gained yesterday despite Japan’s economy contracted in the third quarter, as GDP fell 0.3%, which was in line with expectations. This marked the second decline in the past three quarters, raising alarm bells about the health of the Japanese economy. The contraction can be attributed to natural disasters which hit Japan, including an earthquake, as well as the toll from the escalating global trade war. This has taken a bite out of Japanese exports, as the U.S-China tariff battle has hurt the export-reliant Japanese economy. The Australian Dollar swept higher against all rivals after official data showed the Antipodean labor market going from strength-to-strength in October, but some analysts are warning that things might already be about as good as they are likely to get for the Aussie.

 

 

Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
07:00 German Wholesale Price Index (YoY) (OCT) Low 3.5%
08:30 ECB President Draghi Speaks in Frankfurt High
10:00 Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index Core (YoY) (OCT) Medium 1.1% 1.1%
10:00 Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (YoY) (OCT) Medium 2.2% 2.1%
13:00 Bundesbank President Weidmann Speaks in Frankfurt Low
13:30 Canada International Securities Transactions (Canadian dollar) (SEP) Low 2.82b
13:30 Canada Manufacturing Sales (MoM) (SEP) Low 0.1% -0.4%
14:15 U.S Industrial Production (MoM) (OCT) Medium 0.2% 0.3%
14:15 U.S Capacity Utilization (OCT) Low 78.2% 78.1%
14:15 U.S Manufacturing (SIC) Production (OCT) Medium 0.2% 0.2%
16:00 U.S Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity (NOV) Low 10 8
18:00 U.S Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count (NOV 16) Medium 1081
21:00 U.S Net Long-term TIC Flows (SEP) Medium $131.8b

 

Euro

The single currency gained earlier in the session but closed almost unchanged. Reports out of Italy that Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte was looking to work with the EU over his government’s 2019 budget, which has been rejected by Brussels, to avert massive fines had earlier helped support Italian government bond markets and the euro. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1269 and a high of 1.1361 before closing the day around 1.1326 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen gained yesterday. On the release front, it was a busy day in the US. Retail sales rebounded with a strong gain of 0.7% in October, after a decline of -0.1% a month earlier. Core retail sales jumped 0.8%, after a gain of 0.1% in September. Elsewhere, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index fell sharply to 12.9, shy of the estimate of 20.1 points. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 113.07 and a high of 113.68 before closing the day around 113.62 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound tumbled yesterday after British ministers resigned in protest against a draft Brexit agreement, rekindling fears of a chaotic departure for Britain from the European Union in 4-1/2 months. Traders flocked into the perceived safety of the dollar and yen as the pound swung wildly this week over Brexit. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.2722 and a high of 1.3028 before closing the day at 1.2772 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar edged higher against the U.S Dollar, extending its recovery from a nearly four-month low the day before as oil prices rebounded. The price of oil, one of Canada’s major exports, recouped some of the previous session’s slide on the growing prospect of OPEC and allied producers cutting output at a meeting next month. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.3153 and a high of 1.3246 before closing the day at 1.3175 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar climbed higher in yesterday’s trading session. The local currency yesterday clung to gains after signs of a possible thaw in Sino-US trade relations prompted a bout of short-covering, though it remained within recent well-worn ranges. Figures on Australian wage growth showed some pick-up. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7227 and a high of 0.7296 before closing the day at 0.7281 in the New York session.

 

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is issuing a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 47 and lies below the neutral zone. In general, the pair has gained 0.18%.

 

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish tone and MACD is indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 42 reading and lies below the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has lost 1.66%.

 

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is also indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 63 reading and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.61%.

 

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and below 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bearish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 59 and lies above the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has gained 1.87%.

 

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading above 14 and below 50, 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish stance and MACD is also indicating a bearish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 42 and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 1.60%.

 

Appendix

  

FOREX Closing Prices for November 15, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.13093 1.13611 1.12692 1.13261 0.0018
USD/JPY 113.57 113.688 113.079 113.625 0.0240
GBP/USD 1.2992 1.30284 1.2722 1.27724 -0.0217
USD/CHF 1.00632 1.00776 1.00339 1.00648 0.0007
USD/CAD 1.32394 1.32469 1.31538 1.31755 -0.0064
EUR/JPY 128.453 129.031 127.745 128.712 0.2320
GBP/JPY 147.573 147.9 144.234 145.108 -2.4530
CHF/JPY 112.823 112.999 112.468 112.858 -0.0470
AUD/JPY 82.135 82.862 82.055 82.659 0.5000
EUR/GBP 0.86996 0.88869 0.86968 0.88678 0.0163
EUR/CHF 1.138 1.14181 1.13423 1.14021 0.0023
GBP/CHF 1.30762 1.30949 1.28068 1.28564 -0.0209

 

  

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1185 1.1227 1.1277 1.1319 1.1368 1.1411 1.1460
USD/JPY 112.63 112.86 113.24 113.46 113.85 114.07 114.46
GBP/USD 1.2347 1.2535 1.2653 1.2841 1.2960 1.3147 1.3266
USD/CHF 0.9996 1.0015 1.0040 1.0059 1.0084 1.0102 1.0127
USD/CAD 1.3044 1.3099 1.3137 1.3192 1.3230 1.3285 1.3323
EUR/JPY 126.68 127.21 127.96 128.50 129.25 129.78 130.53
GBP/JPY 139.93 142.08 143.59 145.75 147.26 149.41 150.93
CHF/JPY 112.02 112.24 112.55 112.78 113.08 113.31 113.61
AUD/JPY 81.38 81.72 82.19 82.53 83.00 83.33 83.80
EUR/GBP 0.8557 0.8627 0.8747 0.8817 0.8938 0.9007 0.9128
EUR/CHF 1.1281 1.1312 1.1357 1.1388 1.1433 1.1463 1.1509
GBP/CHF 1.2456 1.2631 1.2744 1.2919 1.3032 1.3207 1.3320

 

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

15 Ноя 2018

Daily Market View

 Daily Market View

 Thursday, November 15, 2018
          U.S Stock Market

 

DJIA S & P 500 NASDAQ
25042 2698.50 6768.25
-0.81% -0.76% -0.90%

U.S stocks fell for a fifth straight day as investors remained on edge over trade, political turmoil and economic growth. Crude halted its longest losing streak on record. The S&P 500 Index slumped to the lowest in two weeks after a key Democrat raised questions about the revamped Nafta deal and selling in Apple Inc. rekindled worry that megacap tech earnings have peaked. An afternoon respite from the selling sparked by U.K Prime Minister Theresa May clinching a Brexit deal with her cabinet gave way to a tumble into the close. Goldman Sachs’s woes continued, with the bank down 13 percent in four days to the lowest since November 2016. Shares of big banks such as Bank of America and JPMorgan Chase dropped about 2%, while Apple and Netflix slumped more than 2.5%. Stocks’ failure to gain momentum after a modest advance in the wake of last week’s midterm elections has made some investors nervous that continuing anxiety about a weaker global economy and tighter financial conditions could continue.

 

 

Major Economic Releases for Today
Period Event GMT Forecast Previous

oct

Australia Employment Change 00:30 20.0k 5.6k

oct

Australia Unemployment Rate 00:30 5.1% 5.0%

nov

U.S Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook 13:30 20 22.2

oct

U.S Retail Sales Advance (MoM) 13:30 0.5% 0.1%

oct

U.S Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas 13:30 0.4% 0.0%

nov

U.S Initial Jobless Claims 13:30 214k 214k

oct

Canada Existing Home Sales (MoM) 14:00 -0.2% -0.4%

nov

DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories 16:00   5783k

 

Fed’s Powell Reviews Post-Hurricane Harvey Recovery Efforts 16:30    
Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.81%. The best performers of the session on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were Dow DuPont Inc., which rose 0.89% or 0.51 points to trade at 57.98 at the close. Meanwhile, Home Depot Inc. added 0.50% or 0.90 points to end at 179.90 and Verizon Communications Inc. was up 0.48% or 0.28 points to 58.94 in late trade. The worst performers of the session were The Travelers Companies Inc., which fell 2.97% or 3.77 points to trade at 123.04 at the close. Apple Inc. declined 2.82% or 5.43 points to end at 186.80 and JPMorgan Chase & Co was down 2.06% or 2.26 points to 107.33.

 

 

 

NASDAQ 100

The NASDAQ index fell 0.90%. The top performers on the NASDAQ Composite were Sphere 3D Corp which rose 58.18% to 2.610, Empire Resorts Inc. which was up 53.93% to settle at 13.130 and Presbia PLC which gained 24.08% to close at 0.906. The worst performers were Seven Stars Cloud Group Inc. which was down 48.77% to 1.670 in late trade, Resonant Inc. which lost 42.21% to settle at 1.670 and Five Star Quality Care Inc. which was down 31.97% to 0.435 at the close.

 

Oil

Oil prices finished higher yesterday with U.S. benchmark crude putting an end to its record 12-session streak of declines, as traders weighed rising crude supplies against lingering questions about demand. Natural-gas futures, meanwhile, saw a spectacular climb of about 18%, their biggest in more than 14 years as cold weather forecasts continued to feed concerns about tight U.S. supplies. West Texas Intermediate oil for December delivery rose 56 cents, or 1%, to settle at $56.25 a barrel, after settling Tuesday at $55.69 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. That was the lowest front-month contract finish since Nov. 16, 2017, and biggest one-day percentage decline, at over 7%, in more than three years, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The dramatic selling across the oil markets in recent days has come to a brief pause yesterday but many remain stunned by the acceleration in aggressive momentum that has transpired over the past couple of sessions.

 

Precious and Base Metals

Gold rose 1 percent yesterday, helped investors covered their short positions after the metal held the key $1,200 level. Spot gold was up 0.90 percent at $1,212.20 per ounce. This was the metal’s biggest one-day gain in nearly two weeks. Prices had slipped to their lowest since Oct. 11 at $1,195.90 in the previous session. U.S gold futures settled up $8.70, or 0.72 percent, at $1,210.10. The dollar has weakened a little bit and that has helped gold to catch a bid. There has also been some short covering after gold held the $1,200 level well. Also, the rebound in oil prices has given some support from the inflationary point of view. An index that tracks the dollar versus a basket of six major currencies was down 0.2 percent after hitting a 16-month high on Monday. The key driver in the near term continues to be currency movements. Factors including increased buying by central banks, the return of interest amongst exchange-traded fund (ETF) investors and seasonal demand for physical gold are acting as a cushion to the downside. Holdings of the world’s largest gold-backed ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, remained near their highest level in more than two months. Bullion has fallen about 11 percent from a peak in April as investors instead flocked to the dollar, with U.S.-China trade friction unfolding against a background of higher U.S interest rates. The dollar has benefited over the past week from expectations for further U.S interest rate hikes, as well as concerns over Italy’s budget and ongoing Brexit talks. The U.S central bank is expected to increase rates in December for a fourth time this year. Rising U.S interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion. Among other precious metals, silver rose 0.86 percent to $14.10 per ounce, after earlier hitting $13.85 – its lowest since Jan. 21, 2016. There is so much above ground inventory that is causing silver prices to fall.

 

 

 

Traditional Agricultures

Soybean futures edged higher yesterday after the U.S Department of Agriculture pegged the pace of the harvest behind market forecasts. Corn also rose, rebounding from losses of more than 1 percent in the previous session, while wheat was little changed. Analysts said soybeans had drawn support from the latest estimates of the U.S harvest.

 

 

Futures Settlement Price Wednesday, November 14, 2018
Instrument Contract Open High Low Settlement Net Change
DJIA DJM18 25375 25486 24919 25042 -285
S & P 500 SPM18 2730.5 2748.25 2686.25 2698.5 -28.5
NASDAQ 100 NDM18 6861.75 6929 6746 6768.25 -83.25
Hang Seng HSH18 25785 25884 25426 25547 -287
Nikkei 225 NKH18 21820 21980 21755 21820 70
FTSE 100 FTH18 7012.5 7093 6957 7005.5 -13.5
Gold GCJ18 1203 1217 1197.8 1211.2 8.8
Silver SIK18 1396.5 1416 1385 1409.5 14.5
Copper HGK18 268.3 272.15 266.6 271.05 2.85
Crude Oil CLK18 55.47 57.51 55.27 56.17 0.76
Wheat WK18 508 510.75 500.75 502.75 -4.75
Soybeans SK18 880 886.75 878.75 883.25 5.25
Corn CK18 366 367.75 365.25 366.5 0.5

 

 

Daily Swings  (The Pivot Levels)
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
DJM18 24245 24582 24812 25149 25379 25716 25946
SPM18 2611.75 2649.00 2673.75 2711.00 2735.75 2773.00 2797.75
NDM18 6516.83 6631.42 6699.83 6814.42 6882.83 6997.42 7065.83
HSH18 24896 25161 25354 25619 25812 26077 26270
NKH18 21498 21627 21723 21852 21948 22077 22173
FTH18 6808.00 6882.50 6944.00 7018.50 7080.00 7154.50 7216.00
GCJ18 1181.13 1189.47 1200.33 1208.67 1219.53 1227.87 1238.73
SIK18 1360.00 1372.50 1391.00 1403.50 1422.00 1434.50 1453.00
HGK18 262.17 264.38 267.72 269.93 273.27 275.48 278.82
CLK18 52.88 54.08 55.12 56.32 57.36 58.56 59.60
WK18 488.75 494.75 498.75 504.75 508.75 514.75 518.75
SK18 871.08 874.92 879.08 882.92 887.08 890.92 895.08
CK18 362.75 364.00 365.25 366.50 367.75 369.00 370.25

 

 

 Source: – News & Quotes (Courtesy:  Reuters)                                                                    

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

 

15 Ноя 2018

FOREX Newsletter

FOREX Newsletter

November 15, 2018

 

Pulse of the Market

·      The dollar fell after inflation data supported the Fed increasing rates at a gradual pace

·      U.S annual core consumer price index (CPI) rose 2.1%, which was less than expected

·      Sterling increased on news that the EU and the UK have reached a draft agreement on Brexit

·      The shared currency edged higher yesteray, but was held back by a row over Italy’s budget

The U.S Dollar continued to give up gains against its rivals yesterday following subdued inflation data. Meanwhile, sterling climbed after UK Prime Minister Theresa May secured support from her Cabinet for a draft Brexit deal. May said that cabinet had backed her Brexit plan, adding it was in the national interest but that there would be difficult days ahead. “The collective decision of cabinet was that the government should agree the draft withdrawal agreement and the outline political declaration,” May said outside her Downing Street residence after a five-hour cabinet meeting. The U.S Dollar index, which measures the greenback against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, fell by 0.41% to 96.75. The Labor Department said yesterday its core consumer price index rose 0.2% last month, in line with economists’ estimates, but for the 12 months through October consumer prices rose 2.1%, lower than forecasts. The subdued inflation report did little to puncture Wall Street’s Federal Reserve theory, with analysts touting further room for prices to increase in the year ahead, keeping the Fed on course to hike rates. While businesses are beginning to see a break on some commodity prices, tariffs and a tight labor market are pushing other costs higher. In the UK, sterling turned positive after the Telegraph initially reported that the prime minister had secured support from cabinet for the deal. The euro rose yesterday as traders monitor the latest developments between the European Union and Britain on the latter’s departure from the economic bloc, and the EU and Italy on the resubmission of the latter’s 2019 budget. Italy re-submitted its draft budget for next year to the European Commission with the same growth and deficit assumptions, but with falling debt, the new draft showed. Euro zone growth rose by 0.2 percent in the third quarter, official data showed, confirming its earlier preliminary flash estimate from Oct. 30.

 

 

Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
00:30 Australia Employment Change (OCT) High   20.0k 5.6k
00:30 Australia Unemployment Rate (OCT) High   5.1% 5.0%
01:30 China New Home Prices (MoM) (OCT) Medium     1.0%
09:30 U.K Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel (YoY) (OCT) Medium   3.4% 3.2%
10:00 Euro-Zone Trade Balance (euros) (SEP) Low     11.7b
13:30 U.S Empire Manufacturing (NOV) Low   20 21.1
13:30 U.S Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook (NOV) Medium   20 22.2
13:30 U.S Retail Sales Advance (MoM) (OCT) High   0.5% 0.1%
13:30 U.S Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas (OCT) Medium   0.4% 0.0%
13:30 U.S Import Price Index ex Petroleum (MoM) (OCT) Medium   0.0% 0.0%
13:30 U.S Export Price Index (YoY) (OCT) Medium     2.7%
13:30 U.S Initial Jobless Claims (NOV 10) Medium   214k 214k
14:00 Canada Existing Home Sales (MoM) (OCT) Medium   -0.2% -0.4%
16:00 DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (NOV 9) Medium     5783k
16:30 U.S Fed’s Powell Reviews Post-Hurricane Harvey Recovery Efforts High      

 

Euro

The single currency rose yesterday as traders monitor the latest developments between the European Union and Britain on the latter’s departure from the economic bloc, and the EU and Italy on the resubmission of the latter’s 2019 budget. Italy re-submitted its draft budget for next year to the European Commission with the same growth but with falling debt. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1261 and a high of 1.1346 before closing the day around 1.1307 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen pair came under selling pressure dragged lower by a sharp reversal in US equities also weighed by a pullback in US Treasury yields after U.S inflation missed market’s expectations. Data released at the beginning of the day showed that the economic growth shrunk in Japan according to Q3 GDP, down 0.3% in the three months to September. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 113.27 and a high of 113.99 before closing the day around 113.60 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound climbed higher in yesterday’s trading session as investor confidence rose on news Britain had struck a draft divorce deal with the European Union after more than a year of talks. The surge in the euro and sterling led investors to take profits on the US dollar, which retraced from a 16-month high. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.2879 and a high of 1.3070 before closing the day at 1.2988 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar edged higher against the U.S Dollar, extending its recovery from a nearly four-month low the day before as oil prices rebounded. The price of oil, one of Canada’s major exports, recouped some of the previous session’s slide on the growing prospect of OPEC and allied producers cutting output at a meeting next month. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.3205 and a high of 1.3261 before closing the day at 1.3239 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar handed back earlier gains after official data showed wage pressures remained elusive down under in the third-quarter and Chinese data cast a shadow over the world’s second largest economy. Australian pay packets rose by 0.6% during the three months ending in September, up from a downwardly-revised 0.5% in the second quarter. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7186 and a high of 0.7240 before closing the day at 0.7239 in the New York session.

 

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is issuing a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 46 and lies below the neutral zone. In general, the pair has lost 0.01%.

 

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish tone and MACD is indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 55 reading and lies above the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.01%.

 

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 59 reading and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.05%.

 

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bullish tone and MACD is issuing a bearish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 35 and lies below the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has gained 0.06%.

 

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish stance and MACD is indicating a bullish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 58 and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.06%.

 

Appendix

  

FOREX Closing Prices for November 14, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.12889 1.13462 1.12616 1.13079 0.0019
USD/JPY 113.804 113.99 113.279 113.601 -0.1960
GBP/USD 1.29731 1.30705 1.28796 1.29889 0.0016
USD/CHF 1.00679 1.01024 1.004 1.00576 -0.0011
USD/CAD 1.32333 1.32616 1.32052 1.32397 0.0008
EUR/JPY 128.48 129.206 128.107 128.48 -0.0180
GBP/JPY 147.629 148.403 146.297 147.561 -0.0090
CHF/JPY 113.003 113.26 112.661 112.905 -0.0780
AUD/JPY 82.138 82.435 81.754 82.159 0.0440
EUR/GBP 0.86984 0.87558 0.86652 0.87053 0.0005
EUR/CHF 1.13667 1.14213 1.13571 1.1379 0.0014
GBP/CHF 1.30634 1.31244 1.29729 1.3065 0.0008

 

 

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1180 1.1221 1.1264 1.1305 1.1349 1.1390 1.1433
USD/JPY 112.55 112.91 113.26 113.62 113.97 114.33 114.68
GBP/USD 1.2698 1.2789 1.2889 1.2980 1.3080 1.3171 1.3271
USD/CHF 0.9969 1.0004 1.0031 1.0067 1.0093 1.0129 1.0156
USD/CAD 1.3153 1.3179 1.3209 1.3236 1.3266 1.3292 1.3322
EUR/JPY 126.89 127.50 127.99 128.60 129.09 129.70 130.19
GBP/JPY 144.33 145.31 146.44 147.42 148.54 149.53 150.65
CHF/JPY 112.03 112.34 112.62 112.94 113.22 113.54 113.82
AUD/JPY 81.12 81.44 81.80 82.12 82.48 82.80 83.16
EUR/GBP 0.8571 0.8618 0.8662 0.8709 0.8752 0.8799 0.8843
EUR/CHF 1.1286 1.1322 1.1350 1.1386 1.1415 1.1450 1.1479
GBP/CHF 1.2832 1.2903 1.2984 1.3054 1.3135 1.3206 1.3287

 

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

14 Ноя 2018

Daily Market View

 

Daily Market View

Wednesday, November 14, 2018
          U.S Stock Market

 

DJIA S & P 500 NASDAQ
25327 2727.00 6851.50
-0.51% -0.10% +0.08%

U.S stocks declined as a slump in oil prices dragged down energy companies, extinguishing earlier gains that were spurred by progress in the American-Chinese trade dispute. The pound rallied on reports of advancement toward a Brexit deal. The S&P 500 retreated yesterday as West Texas crude hit a nine-month low, falling the most intraday since 2011, after U.S President Donald Trump criticized Saudi Arabia’s plan to cut output. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid as Boeing, Exxon Mobil and Pfizer dropped. Treasuries climbed and the dollar fell from an 18-month high. Stock indexes had advanced earlier in the session after White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow told CNBC that the U.S and China are talking on “all levels” of government. That followed an overnight report that China’s Vice Premier Liu He will pave the way for a meeting between the leaders of the two biggest economies later this month. Caterpillar, 3M and mega cap technology shares that react to trade headlines had paced gains in major equity benchmarks.

 

Major Economic Releases for Today
Period Event GMT Forecast Previous

oct

China Retail Sales (YoY) 02:00 9.2% 9.2%

oct

China Industrial Production (YoY) 02:00 5.8% 5.8%

sep

Japan Industrial Production (YoY) 04:30   -2.9%

3Q

German Gross Domestic Product n.s.a. (YoY) 07:00 1.2% 2.3%

oct

U.K Consumer Price Index (YoY) 09:30 2.5% 2.4%

3Q

Euro-Zone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY) 10:00 1.7% 1.7%

oct

U.S Consumer Price Index (YoY) 13:30 2.5% 2.3%

oct

U.S Real Avg. Hourly Earnings (YoY) 13:30   0.5%

 

U.S Fed’s Powell to Discuss Economy at Dallas Fed Event 23:00    
Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.40%. The best performers of the session on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were Intel Corporation, which rose 1.59% or 0.74 points to trade at 47.39 at the close. Meanwhile, American Express Company added 1.29% or 1.37 points to end at 107.86 and Procter & Gamble Company was up 0.83% or 0.77 points to 93.47 in late trade. The worst performers of the session were Exxon Mobil Corp, which fell 2.29% or 1.83 points to trade at 78.00 at the close. Boeing Co declined 2.11% or 7.52 points to end at 349.51 and Chevron Corp was down 1.74% or 2.04 points to 115.35.

 

 

NASDAQ 100

The NASDAQ index added 0.03%. The top performers on the NASDAQ Composite were Pyxis Tankers Inc. which rose 53.89% to 2.9700, EyeGate Pharmaceuticals Inc. which was up 34.66% to settle at 0.420 and Hudson Technologies Inc. which gained 32.96% to close at 0.960. The worst performers were EverQuote Inc Class A which was down 43.49% to 6.73 in late trade, PHI Inc. which lost 25.27% to settle at 4.76 and CTI Industries Corporation which was down 24.30% to 3.02 at the close.

 

Oil

Oil prices fell for a 12th straight session yesterday, the longest streak on record, after President Donald Trump pushed back against Saudi Arabia’s plan to increase its output. Crude oil and Brent crude oil, the international benchmark, were both down by about 4.3%, at $56.36 and $65.92 a barrel. “Hopefully, Saudi Arabia and OPEC will not be cutting oil production,” Trump tweeted on Monday. “Oil prices should be much lower based on supply!” Late Sunday, Saudi Arabia’s energy minister, Khalid Al-Falih, told reporters in Abu Dhabi that the kingdom was going to reduce its oil production by about 500,000 barrels a day in December.  Oil prices have tumbled into a bear market — down at least 20% from their October peaks — amid concerns of growing stockpiles. And data released last week by the Energy Information Agency showed US oil inventories climbed by 5.8 million barrels in the week to November 2, while production hit a weekly record of 11.6 million barrels per day.

 

Precious and Base Metals

Gold shook off earlier losses yesterday to move back above the key $1,200 an ounce support level, benefiting from a slight retreat in the dollar following a rally backed by rising U.S interest rates. Spot gold edged up 0.2 percent at $1,202.90 per ounce, having fallen to its lowest since Oct. 11 at $1,195.90 earlier in the day. U.S. gold futures were steady at $1,203.70 per ounce. Bullion was also on track to snap a seven session-long losing streak, supported by limited buying on the dips by price-sensitive customers. The weaker dollar is supporting gold, and a lot of people are anxious to purchase the metal below $1,200. There is widespread liquidation in some of the markets, including energy. Investors may be shifting money around through new asset allocation by selling those positions and buying gold futures. The dollar index, which measures the U.S. unit’s performance against a basket of major currencies, eased 0.4 percent, having hit its highest since June 2017 in the previous session, making gold less expensive for holders of other currencies. The dollar has benefited over the last week from expectations for further U.S. interest rate hikes, as well as concerns over Italy’s budget and ongoing Brexit talks. There has been a bit of physical demand around the $1,200 levels. The continued weight on the gold market of late has been due to the slowly rising interest rate environment. Bullion had traded between $1,211 and $1,243 an ounce for much of the last month before slipping sharply over the last two sessions. Gold’s fall has done a lot of technical damage so the bounce we see could be short-lived. Meanwhile, holdings of the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, SPDR Gold Trust, rose 0.90 percent to 762.00 tonnes on Monday. Holdings hit their lowest since early 2016 last month after declining over the summer. Silver rose 0.6 percent to $14.04 per ounce, having touched a more than two-month low of $13.92 earlier in the session.

 

 

 

 

Traditional Agricultures

Wheat futures were lower yesterday, retreating from a three-week high touched in the previous session, as the market’s focus remained on whether an expected pick-up in the pace of exports will materialize in the near future. Corn prices also fell yesterday.

 

 

 

Futures Settlement Price Tuesday, November 13, 2018
Instrument Contract Open High Low Settlement Net Change
DJIA DJM18 25405 25564 25180 25327 -59
S & P 500 SPM18 2731.25 2755.75 2714.5 2727 -1.5
NASDAQ 100 NDM18 6846.75 6961 6800.75 6851.5 15.5
Hang Seng HSH18 25056 25854 25002 25834 286
Nikkei 225 NKH18 21810 21820 21470 21750 -495
FTSE 100 FTH18 7044.5 7082 6993.5 7019 -8
Gold GCJ18 1201.4 1205.3 1196.4 1202.4 1.9
Silver SIK18 1397 1409 1391 1395 -21
Copper HGK18 266.8 274.8 266.3 268.2 1.35
Crude Oil CLK18 58.96 59.48 54.87 55.41 -3.57
Wheat WK18 519.25 520.25 505.75 507.5 -11.5
Soybeans SK18 882.25 890.25 876.75 878 -5
Corn CK18 369.25 370.5 365 366 -4.75

 

 

Daily Swings  (The Pivot Levels)
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
DJM18 24766 24973 25150 25357 25534 25741 25918
SPM18 2667.83 2691.17 2709.08 2732.42 2750.33 2773.67 2791.58
NDM18 6620.92 6710.83 6781.17 6871.08 6941.42 7031.33 7101.67
HSH18 24421 24711 25273 25563 26125 26415 26977
NKH18 21190 21330 21540 21680 21890 22030 22240
FTH18 6892.50 6943.00 6981.00 7031.50 7069.50 7120.00 7158.00
GCJ18 1188.53 1192.47 1197.43 1201.37 1206.33 1210.27 1215.23
SIK18 1369.67 1380.33 1387.67 1398.33 1405.67 1416.33 1423.67
HGK18 256.23 261.27 264.73 269.77 273.23 278.27 281.73
CLK18 49.08 51.98 53.69 56.59 58.30 61.20 62.91
WK18 487.58 496.67 502.08 511.17 516.58 525.67 531.08
SK18 859.58 868.17 873.08 881.67 886.58 895.17 900.08
CK18 358.33 361.67 363.83 367.17 369.33 372.67 374.83

 

 Source: – News & Quotes (Courtesy:  Reuters)                                                                    

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