05 Окт 2018

Daily Market View

Daily Market View

Friday, October 05, 2018
          U.S Stock Market

 

DJIA S & P 500 NASDAQ
26643 2907.25 7512.50
-0.75% -0.82% -1.81%

U.S stocks fell the most since June and volatility spiked higher as the rout in Treasuries that took yields to multiyear highs fueled a re-pricing of risk assets. The S&P 500 dropped to a three-week low, with nine of the 11 main sectors retreating. High-dividend-yielding stocks dropped after the 10-year yield poked above 3.2 percent for the first time in seven years. Technology shares fell the most, with the NASDAQ 100 Index notching its worst day since June following Bloomberg’s report that China infiltrated American companies with hardware hacks. Higher rates lifted financial firms. The bond rout rippled through global financial markets even as Treasuries stabilized yesterday. Emerging-market shares sank the most since February, European government bonds fell and commodities from crude to copper tumbled. The Turkish lira led developing-nation currencies lower, closely followed by Russia’s ruble. Data underscoring the strength of the American economy sparked the Treasury selloff, sending yields higher fast enough to spook equity investors who had pushed stocks toward records.

 

Major Economic Releases for Today
Period Event GMT Forecast Previous

aug

German Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) 06:00 -3.0% -0.9%

sep

Switzerland Consumer Price Index (YoY) 07:15 1.1% 1.2%

sep

Canada Unemployment Rate 12:30 5.9% 6.0%

sep

Canada Net Change in Employment 12:30 30.0k -51.6k

aug

U.S Trade Balance 12:30 -$53.0b -$50.1b

sep

U.S Change in Non-farm Payrolls 12:30 185k 201k

sep

U.S Unemployment Rate 12:30 3.8% 3.9%

sep

U.S Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) 12:30 2.8% 2.9%

aug

U.S Consumer Credit 19:00 $15.0b $16.64b
Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.75%. The best performers of the session on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were Verizon Communications Inc., which rose 1.34% or 0.73 points to trade at 55.02 at the close. Meanwhile, The Travelers Companies Inc. added 0.96% or 1.25 points to end at 130.79 and JPMorgan Chase & Co was up 0.90% or 1.03 points to 115.27 in late trade. The worst performers of the session were Nike Inc., which fell 2.81% or 2.32 points to trade at 80.18 at the close. Home Depot Inc. declined 2.40% or 4.89 points to end at 198.85 and Microsoft Corporation was down 2.07% or 2.38 points to 112.79.

 

 

NASDAQ 100

The NASDAQ index lost 1.81%. The top performers on the NASDAQ Composite were Vaxart Inc. which rose 77.97% to 5.250, I-AM Capital Acquisition Co which was up 56.38% to settle at 10.10 and Histogenics Corp which gained 51.52% to close at 1.000. The worst performers were Pain Therapeutics Inc. which was down 56.55% to 1.260 in late trade, Helios and Matheson Analytics Inc. which lost 42.47% to settle at 0.021 and Inpixon which was down 28.57% to 0.3000 at the close.

 

 

Oil

Oil prices tumbled as much as 3 percent yesterday, pulling back sharply after rallying to four-year highs on concerns about the fallout of U.S sanctions on Iran, OPEC’s third biggest crude producer. U.S crude futures ended Thursday’s session down $2.08, or 2.7 percent, at $74.33, after hitting $76.90 on Wednesday, the highest level since November 2014. On Wednesday, Brent climbed to the most technically overbought level since February 2012, while WTI inched higher to the most overbought since January. The relative strength index of both contracts rose this week to above 70, a technical level often regarded as signaling a market that has risen too far. Also weighing on oil prices, Cushing, Oklahoma, crude inventories rose about 1.7 million barrels from Sept. 28 to Tuesday, traders said, citing a report from market intelligence firm Genscape. The market is now just one month away from the Trump administration’s Nov. 4 deadline.

 

 

Precious and Base Metals

Gold steadied yesterday as positive U.S economic data and prospects of tighter monetary policy offset limited gains from safe haven buying. Spot gold was up 0.1 percent at $1,197.87 an ounce. U.S gold futures settled down $1.30, or 0.11 percent, at $1,201.60. Earlier in the session, prices broke above the key $1,200 level as a slide in stock markets on the back of rising U.S Treasury yields prompted some investors to seek refuge in the precious metal. About half of the Fed’s policymakers, including Chairman Jerome Powell, used public appearances on Wednesday to show an increasingly unified view that the U.S. economy was not headed for any obvious potholes. Higher U.S interest rates draw investors to the dollar, boosting its value and in turn making assets priced in the U.S unit more expensive for holders of other currencies. The U.S. dollar held near recent highs against the euro and yen, as investors evaluated the impact of a global government bond rout that has lifted benchmark U.S Treasury yields to seven-year peaks. Some investors had turned to gold as a hedge against inflation risk. Gold has fallen about 12 percent since hitting a peak in April, under pressure from a strong dollar, which has been boosted by a vibrant U.S. economy, rising interest rates and fears of a global trade war. The retreat in the stock markets has made investors a little cautious about overall economic growth in the United States. Investors are awaiting U.S non-farm payrolls numbers due today, with a Reuters survey showing economists on average expect a rise of 185,000 in September after a jump of 201,000 in August. Expectations are that non-farm payrolls figure is going to be a bumper. It should underpin the dollar strength. Holdings in SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, dropped 0.8 percent on Wednesday, has declined more than 4.5 million ounces since late April. Spot silver slipped 0.1 percent to $14.56.

 

 

 

Traditional Agricultures

Corn futures firmed yesterday on concerns that several days of rainy weather expected across the U.S Midwest could disrupt harvesting of what is forecast to be a bumper U.S crop. Soybeans also drew support from the wet forecast but shed gains late in the session in a technical selling setback.

 

 

Futures Settlement Price Thursday, October 04, 2018
Instrument Contract Open High Low Settlement Net Change
DJIA DJM18 26826 26826 26481 26643 -228
S & P 500 SPM18 2926 2926 2887.75 2907.25 -24.25
NASDAQ 100 NDM18 7650.25 7650.5 7456.25 7512.5 -152.75
Hang Seng HSH18 26829 26897 26486 26557 -495
Nikkei 225 NKH18 24260 24290 23910 23930 -210
FTSE 100 FTH18 7460 7463.5 7362 7387 -93.5
Gold GCJ18 1201.7 1210.4 1199.4 1203.4 2.5
Silver SIK18 1465.5 1479 1454.5 1460.5 -4
Copper HGK18 282.25 286.6 277.1 278.55 -3.9
Crude Oil CLK18 76.15 76.43 73.85 74.6 -1.58
Wheat WK18 516 520.25 513.5 517.5 2.25
Soybeans SK18 860.25 868 858.25 859 -2.5
Corn CK18 364.75 368 364.5 367.25 2.75

 

 

Daily Swings  (The Pivot Levels)
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
DJM18 26129 26305 26474 26650 26819 26995 27164
SPM18 2849.75 2868.75 2888.00 2907.00 2926.25 2945.25 2964.50
NDM18 7234.75 7345.50 7429.00 7539.75 7623.25 7734.00 7817.50
HSH18 25985 26236 26396 26647 26807 27058 27218
NKH18 23417 23663 23797 24043 24177 24423 24557
FTH18 7243.33 7302.67 7344.83 7404.17 7446.33 7505.67 7547.83
GCJ18 1187.40 1193.40 1198.40 1204.40 1209.40 1215.40 1220.40
SIK18 1425.83 1440.17 1450.33 1464.67 1474.83 1489.17 1499.33
HGK18 265.40 271.25 274.90 280.75 284.40 290.25 293.90
CLK18 70.91 72.38 73.49 74.96 76.07 77.54 78.65
WK18 507.17 510.33 513.92 517.08 520.67 523.83 527.42
SK18 845.75 852.00 855.50 861.75 865.25 871.50 875.00
CK18 361.67 363.08 365.17 366.58 368.67 370.08 372.17

 

 

 Source: – News & Quotes (Courtesy:  Reuters)                                                                    

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

 

 

 

 

05 Окт 2018

FOREX Newsletter

FOREX Newsletter

October 05, 2018

 

Pulse of the Market

·      The U.S Dollar eased back yesterday as 10-year Treasury yields continued to climb

·      The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note rose to levels not seen since 2011

·      The Euro recovered due to the weaker Dollar while sterling surged

·      The European Union and the UK are in the final Brexit negotiation stages

The U.S Dollar edged toward a 10-week high today before monthly U.S. jobs data that investors hope will shed light on how much longer the Fed’s aggressive rate-hiking cycle will continue. The greenback is outperforming other major currencies as the U.S. economy continues to grow strongly while recent data in other large economies, including the euro zone, has come in below expectations. Investors are watching for signs of increasing U.S. inflation as companies including Amazon AMZN.O raise minimum wages. Today’s non-farm payrolls release for September will give new indications of wage growth and labor market strength. The dollar index .DXY, which measures its performance against a basket of six currencies, was 0.1 percent higher on the day at 95.804. Private payrolls data came in stronger than forecast on Thursday, pushing the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S Treasury note to its highest levels since May 2011. The U.S. central bank foresees another interest rate hike in December, three more next year, and one increase in 2020. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell on Wednesday talked up the U.S. economy, saying that the United States is on the verge of a “historically rare” era of ultra-low unemployment and tame prices. That spooked investors and caused U.S. Treasury yields and the euro/dollar currency pair to breach key technical levels. The Australian dollar often viewed as a barometer of risk appetite, slipped 0.3 percent to $0.7054, a 32-month low, as U.S yield spreads continued to widen, pressuring stock markets and risk appetite around the world. The Aussie, extending losses into a fourth straight session, has now fallen 2.1 percent this month. The euro edged down 0.1 percent to $1.1497 after brushing a six-week low of $1.1463 during yesterday’s session. Sterling rose to a 3-month high versus the euro on Friday after European Union Brexit negotiators said that a divorce deal with Britain was “very close”. The Canadian dollar was little changed against its U.S. counterpart yesterday after clawing back its earlier losses, as higher U.S. Treasury yields weighed on global stocks and supported recent gains for the greenback.

 

 

Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
01:30 Australia Retail Sales (MoM) (AUG) Low   0.3% 0.0%
06:00 German Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) (AUG) Medium   -3.0% -0.9%
06:00 German Producer Price Index (YoY) (AUG) Low   2.9% 3.0%
07:15 Switzerland Consumer Price Index (YoY) (SEP) Medium   1.1% 1.2%
08:30 U.K Unit Labor Costs (YoY) (2Q) Medium     3.1%
12:30 Canada Unemployment Rate (SEP) High   5.9% 6.0%
12:30 Canada Net Change in Employment (SEP) High   30.0k -51.6k
12:30 U.S Trade Balance (AUG) Medium   -$53.0b -$50.1b
12:30 U.S Change in Non-farm Payrolls (SEP) High   185k 201k
12:30 U.S Unemployment Rate (SEP) High   3.8% 3.9%
12:30 U.S Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (SEP) Medium   2.8% 2.9%
17:00 Baker Hughes U.S Rig Count (OCT 5) Medium      
19:00 U.S Consumer Credit (AUG) Medium   $15.0b $16.64b

Euro

The single currency gained yesterday, after posting six losing sessions. On the release front, there are no major German or Eurozone events on the schedule. In the U.S, the key event is unemployment claims, which is expected to remain unchanged at 214 thousand. Today, Germany releases Factory Orders and PPI. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1462 and a high of 1.1541 before closing the day around 1.1512 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen pair weakened yesterday but stayed near recent highs as investors evaluated the impact of a global government bond rout that has lifted benchmark U.S Treasury yields to seven-year peaks. Strong economic data and hawkish speeches by Fed officials, including Chairman Jerome Powell, spooked investors on Wednesday. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 113.61 and a high of 114.53 before closing the day around 113.89 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound received a boost in today’s trading session over speculation that Ireland is hand in hand with British Prime Minister Theresa May on her plan to settle the border issue between Northern Ireland and Ireland. The news comes at the end of the Tory party conference in Birmingham where Prime Minister May laid out her Brexit plan. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.2919 and a high of 1.3039 before closing the day at 1.3020 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar may rally over the coming year, according to currency strategists in a Reuters poll who raised their forecasts for the loonie as a deal to revamp the North American Free Trade Agreement reduced economic uncertainty. The currency has rallied as much as 2.3 percent against the U.S Dollar since last Thursday. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.2854 and a high of 1.2935 before closing the day at 1.2921 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar fell yesterday. Path of least resistance is down and downside risks are rising as fast as bearish sentiment. The RBA have openly declared that they are comfortable with the Aussie trading lower. It’s been a perfect-storm week of negativity for the Australian dollar and it continued overnight. The yield on the US 10-year Treasury surged for a second session. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7063 and a high of 0.7110 before closing the day at 0.7071 in the New York session.

 

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading below 14 and above 50, 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is also issuing a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 51 and lies above the neutral zone. In general, the pair has lost 0.21%.

  

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading below 14 and above 50, 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish tone and MACD is also indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 58 reading and lies above the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has gained 0.10%.

 

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 42 reading and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.88%.

 

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and below 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bearish tone and MACD is also issuing a bearish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 37 and lies below the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.31%.

  

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading above 14, 50 and below 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish stance and MACD is indicating a bullish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 63 and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.57%.

Appendix

  

FOREX Closing Prices for October 04, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.14794 1.15414 1.1462 1.15128 0.0036
USD/JPY 114.464 114.531 113.613 113.892 -0.6200
GBP/USD 1.29388 1.30397 1.29199 1.30206 0.0084
USD/CHF 0.99212 0.99322 0.98897 0.99151 -0.0007
USD/CAD 1.28664 1.29354 1.28547 1.29214 0.0056
EUR/JPY 131.423 131.553 130.721 131.163 -0.2700
GBP/JPY 148.116 148.61 147.68 148.32 0.1550
CHF/JPY 115.34 115.586 114.533 114.841 -0.5450
AUD/JPY 81.285 81.395 80.346 80.598 -0.7130
EUR/GBP 0.88692 0.88738 0.88328 0.88403 -0.0027
EUR/CHF 1.139 1.14333 1.13649 1.14165 0.0029
GBP/CHF 1.28407 1.29282 1.28157 1.29111 0.0073

  

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1390 1.1426 1.1469 1.1505 1.1549 1.1585 1.1628
USD/JPY 112.58 113.09 113.49 114.01 114.41 114.93 115.33
GBP/USD 1.2827 1.2874 1.2947 1.2993 1.3067 1.3113 1.3187
USD/CHF 0.9850 0.9870 0.9892 0.9912 0.9935 0.9955 0.9977
USD/CAD 1.2792 1.2823 1.2872 1.2904 1.2953 1.2985 1.3034
EUR/JPY 129.91 130.31 130.74 131.15 131.57 131.98 132.40
GBP/JPY 146.87 147.27 147.80 148.20 148.73 149.13 149.66
CHF/JPY 113.33 113.93 114.39 114.99 115.44 116.04 116.49
AUD/JPY 79.12 79.73 80.16 80.78 81.21 81.83 82.26
EUR/GBP 0.8783 0.8808 0.8824 0.8849 0.8865 0.8890 0.8906
EUR/CHF 1.1308 1.1337 1.1377 1.1405 1.1445 1.1473 1.1513
GBP/CHF 1.2729 1.2773 1.2842 1.2885 1.2954 1.2998 1.3067

 

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

04 Окт 2018

Daily Market View

Daily Market View

Thursday, October 04, 2018
          U.S Stock Market

 

DJIA S & P 500 NASDAQ
26871 2931.50 7665.25
+0.20% +0.07% +0.32%

U.S stocks edged higher after flirting with records as a selloff in Treasuries deepened amid a surge in trading volume. Crude rallied above $76 a barrel and the dollar rose. The S&P 500 Index eked out a gain after earlier climbing to within a whisker of an all-time high. Steep losses in rate-sensitive shares from utilities to real-estate firms weighed on the measure. Banks surged as 30-year Treasury yields popped to the highest since 2014, while the two-year rate jumped to a pre-crisis high and 10-year yields hit levels last seen in 2011. The moves were sparked by data on private payrolls and American services industries that underscored the economy’s robustness at the same time Chairman Jerome Powell signaled the Federal Reserve will press on with rate hikes. More than two million 10-year Treasury futures contracts traded before the 3 p.m. settlement, about 170 percent above average. The retreat in equities rekindled discussions of the tug-of-war between rising rates and stocks, as investors weigh allocations. Oil rose past $76 a barrel, trading near the highest level in four years.

 

Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.20% to hit a new all-time high. The best performers of the session on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were Caterpillar Inc., which rose 2.20% or 3.40 points to trade at 158.22 at the close. Meanwhile, Boeing Co added 1.53% or 5.93 points to end at 392.30 and Intel Corporation was up 1.37% or 0.66 points to 48.76 in late trade. The worst performers of the session were Procter & Gamble Company, which fell 1.58% or 1.33 points to trade at 83.03 at the close. Coca-Cola Company declined 1.38% or 0.64 points to end at 45.87 and Walmart Inc. was down 1.14% or 1.08 points to 94.07.

 

 

NASDAQ 100

The NASDAQ index added 0.32%. The top performers on the NASDAQ Composite were Pain Therapeutics Inc. which rose 200.55% to 2.900, Helios and Matheson Analytics Inc. which was up 174.44% to settle at 0.036 and Inpixon which gained 104.88% to close at 0.4200. The worst performers were I-AM Capital Acquisition Co which was down 35.41% to 6.46 in late trade, Davidstea Inc. which lost 25.00% to settle at 3.12 and Cellectar Biosciences Inc. which was down 19.24% to 2.9800 at the close.

 

Oil

Oil futures rallied yesterday as reported declines in Iranian exports due to pending U.S. oil sanctions and uncertainty surrounding the ability of other major oil producers to make up for the loss, lifted U.S. and global prices back to nearly four-year highs. The strong gains came despite data from the U.S government which revealed the largest weekly rise of the year in U.S crude inventories. The market is having problems reconciling the supply risk from Iran and questions about how much Saudis will pump and a bearish report. Investment banks and hedge funds say oil prices have rallied too far too fast, but the fear and uncertainty gripping the market will keep pressure on crude futures in the coming weeks. The market is just one month away from the Nov. 4 deadline that President Donald Trump set for oil buyers to stop purchasing Iran’s crude. In May, Trump pulled the United States out of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal and restored sanctions on OPEC’s third-largest oil producer.

 

Major Economic Releases for Today
Period Event GMT Forecast Previous

aug

Australia Trade Balance 01:30 A$1450m A$1551m

sep

Markit Germany Construction PMI 07:30   51.5

sep

U.S Initial Jobless Claims 12:30 213k 214k

sep

U.S Continuing Claims 12:30 1665k 1661k

sep

Canada Ivey Purchasing Managers Index s.a. 14:00   61.9

aug

U.S Factory Orders 14:00 2.2% -0.8%

aug

U.S Durable Goods Orders 14:00   4.5%

sep

Australia AiG Performance of Construction Index 22:30   51.8

aug

Japan Overall Household Spending (YoY) 23:30 0.1% 0.1%

 

Precious and Base Metals

Gold tracked back from its highest in over a week yesterday after Italy indicated it was open to cutting its budget deficit and debt, soothing investors’ nerves and prompting a wider move back into riskier assets. Spot gold inched 0.1 percent lower to $1,201.01 per ounce, having hit its highest since Sept. 21 at $1,208.32 earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures eased 0.2 percent to $1,204.80. The situation is calming down a little bit. It’s a little bit of a move into riskier assets in the euro zone that is slightly dampening gold. European shares rose and Italian bonds have rallied as some of the worries that shook markets this week were soothed by signs Rome was amenable to cutting budget deficits and debt in coming years. Gold can be used as an alternative investment during times of political and financial uncertainty. Unless there is a meltdown in Italy or a financial crisis, which would also impact U.S. markets, there is no strong reason for a jump in gold prices. I expect more sideways trading around the present levels with plus or minus around $20. Gold prices have fallen for the past six months, losing over 11 percent, largely due to dollar strength. The U.S. currency has benefited from a vibrant economy, rising U.S. interest rates and fears of a global trade war. Gold has come down quite a lot in recent months and does seem to be taking a pause. The dollar is going to be the key driver moving forward for prices. Gold is highly sensitive to rising interest rates, as these increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion. Rising U.S. borrowing costs also lift the dollar, in which gold is priced. On the technical front, the gold market is consolidating sideways. Holdings in the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, SPDR Gold Trust, fell 0.32 percent to 23.72 million ounces on Tuesday. Among other precious metals, silver rose 0.3 percent to $14.68 an ounce, hovering close to the previous session’s $14.91, its highest in more than a month.

 

 

 

Traditional Agricultures

Soybean futures eased in a technical selling setback following two days of gains despite concerns that rainy weather in parts of the Midwest would delay harvesting and possibly damage some crops. Wheat prices drifted lower with corn and soybeans after rallying more than 2 percent a day earlier.

 

 

Futures Settlement Price Wednesday, October 03, 2018
Instrument Contract Open High Low Settlement Net Change
DJIA DJM18 26811 26962 26773 26871 68
S & P 500 SPM18 2928.75 2944.5 2925.25 2931.5 3
NASDAQ 100 NDM18 7656 7703.25 7641.25 7665.25 12.75
Hang Seng HSH18 27002 27247 26867 27052 64
Nikkei 225 NKH18 24220 24265 24035 24140 -125
FTSE 100 FTH18 7451.5 7497.5 7439.5 7480.5 35.5
Gold GCJ18 1207.7 1212 1200.2 1200.9 -6.1
Silver SIK18 1473 1484 1464 1464.5 -6
Copper HGK18 279.95 283.95 279.65 282.45 2.5
Crude Oil CLK18 75.07 76.86 74.28 76.18 1.16
Wheat WK18 522 526.75 513.75 515.25 -3.5
Soybeans SK18 867 869.75 860.25 861.5 -4.25
Corn CK18 367.75 368.5 364 364.5 -2.5

 

 

Daily Swings  (The Pivot Levels)
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2
DJM18 26586 26680 26775 26869 26964 27058 27153
SPM18 2903.75 2914.50 2923.00 2933.75 2942.25 2953.00 2961.50
NDM18 7574.58 7607.92 7636.58 7669.92 7698.58 7731.92 7760.58
HSH18 26484 26675 26864 27055 27244 27435 27624
NKH18 23798 23917 24028 24147 24258 24377 24488
FTH18 7389.50 7414.50 7447.50 7472.50 7505.50 7530.50 7563.50
GCJ18 1184.93 1192.57 1196.73 1204.37 1208.53 1216.17 1220.33
SIK18 1437.67 1450.83 1457.67 1470.83 1477.67 1490.83 1497.67
HGK18 275.78 277.72 280.08 282.02 284.38 286.32 288.68
CLK18 72.11 73.19 74.69 75.77 77.27 78.35 79.85
WK18 497.42 505.58 510.42 518.58 523.42 531.58 536.42
SK18 848.42 854.33 857.92 863.83 867.42 873.33 876.92
CK18 358.33 361.17 362.83 365.67 367.33 370.17 371.83

 

 

 Source: – News & Quotes (Courtesy:  Reuters)                                                                    

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

 

04 Окт 2018

FOREX Newsletter

FOREX Newsletter

October 04, 2018

 

 

The greenback traded higher against all of the major currencies in a move that took USD/JPY to its strongest level in 11 months. The Australian dollar was hit the hardest by the dollar’s rise while sterling was the most resilient. Today’s move was driven by the classic story of economic dominance. The largest economy in the world is growing the fastest. While economic reports from around the world surprised to the downside, U.S. data is consistently beating expectations and reinforcing the positive momentum. According to the latest reports, service sector activity expanded at its fastest pace in more than 20 years. The details of the ISM non-manufacturing report showed broad based improvements in prices, new orders, backlogs and employment. In response, 10 year US Treasury yields jumped to their highest level in 7 years and this move played an important role in driving the US dollar higher. Prime Minister May’s Tory Conference speech was a major disappointment. Not only did she fail to provide any meaningful updates on Brexit but sterling barely moved despite her pledge to accept no deal rather than a bad one. UK data was also worse than expected with the PMI services index falling to 53.9 from 54.3. Although some investors may have found comfort in UK Brexit negotiator Raab’s comment that they hope to have deal by November, speculative positioning is the main reason for sterling’s resilience. Traders are still heavily short the pound and unless there’s major negative news they may need some convincing to add to their positions. If leaving the door open to no deal or weaker UK PMIs can’t do the trick, then a reversal would have to be driven by a much better than expected US jobs report. Not only did EUR/USD decline for the sixth consecutive trading day but it came very close to breaking 1.15. The downward revision to Eurozone PMIs and weaker retail sales contributed to the move but the primary reason for the euro’s decline was U.S. dollar strength. German bond yields increased significantly today which should have been positive for the single currency especially as Italian yields declined but the market’s demand for U.S Dollars was just too strong. The worst performing currencies yesterday were the Australian and New Zealand dollars. An unexpectedly steep decline in building approvals in Australia triggered the initial slide.
    Pulse of the Market

·      The U.S Dollar rallied yesterday after higher-than-expected private sectors jobs data

·      U.S private sector employers added 230,000 jobs in September

·      The Euro was lower despite news that Italy’s government will reduce its budget deficit targets

·      The Australian Dollar was lower and Canadian Dollar ended almost unchanged

 

 

Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
01:30 Australia Trade Balance (AUG) Medium   A$1450m A$1551m
07:30 Markit Germany Construction PMI (SEP) Medium     51.5
11:30 U.S Challenger Job Cuts (YoY) (SEP) Low     13.7%
12:30 U.S Initial Jobless Claims (SEP 29) Medium   213k 214k
12:30 U.S Continuing Claims (SEP 22) Medium   1665k 1661k
13:15 U.S Fed’s Quarles Speaks at Community Banking Conference Low      
14:00 Canada Ivey Purchasing Managers Index s.a. (SEP) Low     61.9
14:00 U.S Factory Orders (AUG) Medium   2.2% -0.8%
14:00 U.S Durable Goods Orders (AUG) Medium     4.5%
22:30 Australia AiG Performance of Construction Index (SEP) Medium     51.8
23:30 Japan Overall Household Spending (YoY) (AUG) Medium   0.1% 0.1%

 

Euro

The single currency climbed against other currencies early yesterday on reports Italy may yield ground over a budget stalemate with the European Union, but failed to hold the bulk of the gains. Italian officials had previously clashed with Brussels over the budget deficit target, which had stoked fears of another crisis in the region. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1463 and a high of 1.1592 before closing the day around 1.1476 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen pair gained yesterday as data supported the view that the U.S economy is in strong shape. Private employers added 230,000 jobs in September, the most since February, according to the ADP National Employment Report on Wednesday. That was more than economists’ expectations of 185,000 jobs. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 113.50 and a high of 114.52 before closing the day around 114.51 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound traded up slightly against the US dollar yesterday after sinking on Tuesday following some weak UK construction data. The pound fell across the board following a mixture of poor data in the form of September’s construction PPI, and trader jitters over Boris Johnson’s appearance at the Conservative Party conference. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.2922 and a high of 1.3021 before closing the day at 1.2937 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar edged lower yesterday as comments by a top U.S policymaker boosted the greenback, but the Loonie clung to most of the gains that followed a deal over the weekend to revamp the NAFTA trade pact. Federal Reserve policymaker Charles Evans said inflation expectations have not gone up as much as he would have liked. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.2804 and a high of 1.2880 before closing the day at 1.2865 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar outlook softened after official data revealed building approvals fell by close on 10% in August with analysts saying the shrinkage is largely due to tightening credit conditions. Signs that credit is becoming scarcer in the Australian banking system suggests to foreign exchange markets that the RBA might have to keep interest rates unchanged for even longer. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7117 and a high of 0.7194 before closing the day at 0.7112 in the New York session.

 

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading below 14 and above 50, 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is also issuing a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 57 and lies above the neutral zone. In general, the pair has gained 0.16%.

 

Sterling-Yen

 

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading below 14 and above 50, 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish tone and MACD is also indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 59 reading and lies above the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has gained 0.47%.

  

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 52 reading and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.42%.

  

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and below 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bearish tone and MACD is also issuing a bearish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 41 and lies below the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.31%.

  

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading above 14, 50 and below 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish stance and MACD is indicating a bullish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 60 and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.55%.

 

Appendix

 

FOREX Closing Prices for October 03, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.15444 1.15923 1.1463 1.14768 -0.0069
USD/JPY 113.609 114.524 113.503 114.512 0.8860
GBP/USD 1.29761 1.30213 1.29223 1.29371 -0.0040
USD/CHF 0.9842 0.99237 0.98314 0.99216 0.0085
USD/CAD 1.28224 1.28806 1.28049 1.2865 0.0044
EUR/JPY 131.173 131.954 130.944 131.433 0.2040
GBP/JPY 147.432 148.561 147.241 148.165 0.6920
CHF/JPY 115.407 115.705 115.071 115.386 -0.0880
AUD/JPY 81.626 81.889 81.29 81.311 -0.3470
EUR/GBP 0.88943 0.8916 0.8858 0.88674 -0.0027
EUR/CHF 1.13667 1.14193 1.13563 1.13874 0.0027
GBP/CHF 1.2774 1.28818 1.27641 1.28379 0.0070

 

 

 

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1300 1.1381 1.1429 1.1511 1.1558 1.1640 1.1688
USD/JPY 112.81 113.16 113.84 114.18 114.86 115.20 115.88
GBP/USD 1.2800 1.2861 1.2899 1.2960 1.2998 1.3059 1.3097
USD/CHF 0.9768 0.9800 0.9861 0.9892 0.9953 0.9985 1.0045
USD/CAD 1.2744 1.2774 1.2820 1.2850 1.2895 1.2926 1.2971
EUR/JPY 129.92 130.43 130.93 131.44 131.94 132.45 132.95
GBP/JPY 146.10 146.67 147.42 147.99 148.74 149.31 150.06
CHF/JPY 114.44 114.75 115.07 115.39 115.70 116.02 116.34
AUD/JPY 80.51 80.90 81.10 81.50 81.70 82.10 82.30
EUR/GBP 0.8787 0.8822 0.8845 0.8880 0.8903 0.8938 0.8961
EUR/CHF 1.1293 1.1325 1.1356 1.1388 1.1419 1.1451 1.1482
GBP/CHF 1.2656 1.2710 1.2774 1.2828 1.2892 1.2946 1.3009

 

 

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

 

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

03 Окт 2018

Daily Market View

     

Daily Market View

Wednesday, October 03, 2018
          U.S Stock Market

 

DJIA S & P 500 NASDAQ
26803 2928.50 7652.50
+0.46% -0.04% -0.47%

U.S stocks ended an up-and-down session mostly lower as Amazon.com wage increase pressured retailers and small caps slumped to a two-month low as trade tensions eased. The dollar, Treasuries and commodities advanced. The S&P 500 Index edged lower. Retailers led declines after Amazon raised the minimum wage for all its employees. Small caps remained under pressure after the new NAFTA deal, while Boeing Co. and Caterpillar Inc. led the Dow Jones Industrial Average to a fresh record. Comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell shrugging off inflation worries added to pressure on equities. Amazon’s wage move raised the specter that competitors will have to make a similar move, threatening profit margins at a time when input costs have also been on the rise. Otherwise, trade largely set the tone, with multinationals continuing to benefit from a reduction in tension and domestically focused companies under pressure. Meanwhile, political drama in Washington still swirls around President Donald Trump’s Supreme Court nominee.

 

Major Economic Releases for Today
Period Event GMT Forecast Previous

sep

Nikkei Japan PMI Composite 00:30   52

sep

Markit Eurozone Composite PMI 08:00 54.2 54.2

sep

Markit/CIPS UK Composite PMI 08:30 54 54.2

aug

Euro-Zone Retail Sales (YoY) 09:00 1.7% 1.1%

sep

U.S MBA Mortgage Applications 11:00    

sep

U.S ADP Employment Change 12:15 185k 163k

sep

Markit US Composite PMI 13:45   53.4

sep

U.S ISM Non-Manufacturing/Services Composite 14:00 58 58.5

sep

DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories 14:30   1852k
 

Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.46% to hit a new all-time high. The best performers of the session on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were Intel Corporation, which rose 3.55% or 1.65 points to trade at 48.10 at the close. Meanwhile, Caterpillar Inc. added 1.67% or 2.54 points to end at 154.82 and 3M Company was up 1.66% or 3.52 points to 215.71 in late trade. The worst performers of the session were Nike Inc., which fell 2.00% or 1.69 points to trade at 82.77 at the close. Home Depot Inc. declined 1.37% or 2.85 points to end at 204.75 and McDonald’s Corporation was down 0.89% or 1.49 points to 165.18.

 

 

NASDAQ 100

The NASDAQ index declined 0.47%. The top performers on the NASDAQ Composite were vTv Therapeutics Inc. which rose 157.73% to 2.00, Davidstea Inc. which was up 63.14% to settle at 4.16 and Sellas Life Sciences Group Inc. which gained 39.83% to close at 1.6500. The worst performers were MoSys Inc. which was down 55.37% to 0.2611 in late trade, GreenPro Capital Corp which lost 44.44% to settle at 5.500000 and ARCA Biopharma Inc. which was down 35.29% to 0.660 at the close.

 

Oil

Oil prices dipped yesterday but remained close to four-year highs on worries that global supplies will drop due to Washington’s sanctions on Iran. The market steadied after rallying in three consecutive sessions. Still, oil prices drew support from worries that Iranian production will drop sharply after U.S. sanctions go into effect on Nov. 4. Also, global demand has remained strong in the face of trade tensions. U.S West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures ended yesterday’s session down 7 cents at $75.23 a barrel, having hit a nearly four-year high of $75.91 earlier in the session. Sentiment was lifted by a last-gasp deal to salvage NAFTA as a trilateral pact between the United States, Mexico and Canada, rescuing a $1.2 trillion a year open-trade zone that had been about to collapse. More fundamentally, oil markets have been pushed up by looming U.S. sanctions against Iran’s oil industry. The Trump administration set a deadline of Nov. 4 for oil buyers to stop purchasing Iranian crude.

 

Precious and Base Metals

Gold hit its highest in more than a week yesterday, vaulting the $1,200 per ounce mark, as investors sought refuge in the metal after stock markets sold off due to anti-euro comments by an Italian lawmaker. Spot gold jumped 1.3 percent to $1,202.81 per ounce, and was on track to post its biggest one-day percentage gain since Aug. 24. Prices earlier touched $1,208.23 an ounce, the highest since Sept. 21. U.S. gold futures for December delivery settled up $15.3, or 1.28 percent, at $1,207 per ounce. The equity market sell-off has unnerved investors and is bringing in some safe-haven bids. Gold still needs to break and hold above major resistance in the $1,205-$1,215 range before we can be confident that a low has been formed. Gold had not been influenced by the dollar’s broad based rise, as represented by the dollar index. A rising dollar normally reduces the attractiveness of dollar-priced gold for overseas investors. One thing that was interesting today was that the dollar index was over 95 and gold completely ignored that. The index around this level is a major headwind for gold and when you ignore a headwind it is a bullish signal. Gold has fallen for the past six months, losing 13 percent, largely due to dollar strength, with the U.S currency benefiting from a vibrant U.S. economy, rising U.S interest rates and fears of a global trade war. U.S Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Tuesday hailed a “remarkably positive outlook” for the U.S economy. The Fed raised rates last week and said it planned four more increases by the end of 2019 and another in 2020, citing steady economic growth and a robust jobs market. Rising interest rates boost the greenback and increase the opportunity cost of holding gold. As long as the U.S. economy continues to grow strongly and the news in terms of trade is generally in favor of the U.S, gold is going to struggle. Market participants are now waiting for the U.S. non-farm payrolls data on Friday for further indications on the strength of the economy.

 

 

Traditional Agricultures

Corn and soybean futures firmed for a second day yesterday on expectations for improved demand following a recent price slump and as a rainy weather outlook for the Midwest threatened to stall harvesting.

 

 

Futures Settlement Price Tuesday, October 02, 2018
Instrument Contract Open High Low Settlement Net Change
DJIA DJM18 26680 26835 26551 26803 132
S & P 500 SPM18 2929 2936 2917.5 2928.5 -1
NASDAQ 100 NDM18 7674.75 7712.5 7630 7652.5 -21.25
Hang Seng HSH18 27753 27753 26987 26988 -884
Nikkei 225 NKH18 24390 24440 24215 24265 -40
FTSE 100 FTH18 7437.5 7450.5 7407 7445 -9.5
Gold GCJ18 1192.5 1212 1192.2 1207 14.6
Silver SIK18 1451.5 1493.5 1445.5 1470.5 20.5
Copper HGK18 278.5 285.2 275.95 279.95 1.4
Crude Oil CLK18 75.4 75.87 74.9 75.02 -0.42
Wheat WK18 509.75 524.25 505 518.75 9.5
Soybeans SK18 855 866 852.75 865.75 9
Corn CK18 364.75 368.75 362.75 367 1.5

 

 

Daily Swings  (The Pivot Levels)
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2
DJM18 26340 26446 26624 26730 26908 27014 27192
SPM18 2900.17 2908.83 2918.67 2927.33 2937.17 2945.83 2955.67
NDM18 7535.00 7582.50 7617.50 7665.00 7700.00 7747.50 7782.50
HSH18 25966 26477 26732 27243 27498 28009 28264
NKH18 23948 24082 24173 24307 24398 24532 24623
FTH18 7374.33 7390.67 7417.83 7434.17 7461.33 7477.67 7504.83
GCJ18 1175.67 1183.93 1195.47 1203.73 1215.27 1223.53 1235.07
SIK18 1398.17 1421.83 1446.17 1469.83 1494.17 1517.83 1542.17
HGK18 266.28 271.12 275.53 280.37 284.78 289.62 294.03
CLK18 73.69 74.29 74.66 75.26 75.63 76.23 76.60
WK18 488.50 496.75 507.75 516.00 527.00 535.25 546.25
SK18 843.75 848.25 857.00 861.50 870.25 874.75 883.50
CK18 357.58 360.17 363.58 366.17 369.58 372.17 375.58

 

 

 Source: – News & Quotes (Courtesy:  Reuters)                                                                    

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

 

03 Окт 2018

FOREX Newsletter

FOREX Newsletter

October 03, 2018

 

 

Pulse of the Market

·      The U.S Dollar eased from 10-month highs against the safe haven Japanese currency

·      The Euro pared back some losses after falling to one-and-a-half month lows against the Dollar

·      Investors remained pessimistic about prospects for Brexit negotiations between the UK and the EU

·      The Canadian dollar was little changed against its broadly stronger U.S counterpart yesterday

 

The U.S Dollar stood near a one-month high against its peers today as concerns as political wrangling over Italy’s budget plan rattled market sentiment and weighed on the euro. The greenback rose as the euro slumped after a senior Italian lawmaker said most of the country’s problems would be solved if it returned to a national currency of its own. The euro was little changed at $1.1550 in Asian trade after retreating to a six-week low of $1.1505 overnight. Still, that was not enough to prompt a strong bounce for the euro, which has been stung recently by worries over heavily indebted Italy’s budget situation. The dollar index against a basket of six major currencies was steady at 95.468 after scaling 95.744 overnight, its highest since Sept. 4 as Italian concerns chilled investor risk sentiment in the broader markets and raised demand for the safe-haven U.S currency. The yen, another safe-haven currency, also gained against peers such as the euro, dollar and Australian dollar. The greenback last stood at 113.62 yen, having pulled back from an 11-month high of 114.06 reached on Monday. The slip by European currencies in the wake of the latest Italian concerns has lifted the dollar. But a larger component of the dollar’s recent rise comes from fundamental factors fortified after the Fed’s rate hike. The dollar index has advanced about 1.4 percent since last Wednesday, when the Federal Reserve raised interest rates as expected and said it foresees another rate hike in December, three more next year and one in 2020. U.S. data due later today such as the non-manufacturing ISM index and Friday’s jobs report will provide a chance to see if the economy is performing in line with the Fed’s views. The pound was little changed at $1.2981 after dropping yesterday to $1.2941, its weakest since Sept. 10, as conflicts over Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit plan escalated. The Australian dollar was steady at $0.7189 after sliding the previous day to a two-week trough of $0.7162. The Aussie, sensitive to shifts in global risk sentiment, was hit as equities sold off on worries over Italy. In the near term, Australian dollar risks probably remain to the downside, given the confluence of the recent Fed meeting, the U.S. review of China tariffs and Italy budget risks. The Canadian dollar was little changed against its broadly stronger U.S. counterpart yesterday.

 

Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
00:30 Nikkei Japan PMI Services (SEP) Medium     51.5
00:30 Nikkei Japan PMI Composite (SEP) Medium     52
01:30 Australia Building Approvals (YoY) (AUG) Medium   -2.5% -5.6%
07:55 Markit Germany Services PMI (SEP) Low   56.5 56.5
08:00 Markit Eurozone Services PMI (SEP) Low   54.7 54.7
08:30 Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI (SEP) Medium   54 54.3
09:00 Euro-Zone Retail Sales (YoY) (AUG) Medium   1.7% 1.1%
11:00 U.S MBA Mortgage Applications (SEP 28) Medium      
12:15 U.S ADP Employment Change (SEP) Medium   185k 163k
14:00 U.S ISM Non-Manufacturing/Services Composite (SEP) High   58 58.5
14:30 DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (SEP 28) Medium     1852k

Euro

The single currency fell to a six-week low on Tuesday after a senior lawmaker in one of Italy’s ruling parties said most of the country’s problems would be resolved if it readopted a national currency. Italy’s coalition proposed a budget with a higher-than-expected deficit target, exacerbating tensions with other euro zone leaders. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1503 and a high of 1.1578 before closing the day around 1.1546 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen pair slipped off a more than 10-month peak as the boost to risk appetites from the US-Canada trade deal to replace the North American Free Trade Agreement faded. US President Donald Trump and Japanese Prime Minister agreed on Sept. 27 to start fresh trade talks. The greenback is now up just over 1 per cent against the yen this year. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 113.50 and a high of 113.99 before closing the day around 113.62 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound slumped sharply as Brexit-based jitters continued to weigh on market sentiment. September’s UK construction PMI failed to impress as the index dipped from 52.9 to 52.1, dragged down by a general decline in business sentiment. Even with the resolution of the US-Canada trade dispute, the outlook of the US economy remains clouded. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.2939 and a high of 1.3046 before closing the day at 1.2977 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar was little changed against its broadly stronger U.S counterpart yesterday, holding on to most of the gains that followed a deal over the weekend to keep Canada in a revamped NAFTA trade pact. The deal to salvage the trilateral North American Free Trade Agreement has reduced uncertainty for Canada’s trade-dependent economy. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.2797 and a high of 1.2838 before closing the day at 1.2820 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar is set to head even lower as local interest rates fall further behind U.S. levels, delivering a dose of stimulus the central bank has long sought but been reluctant to provide itself. The RBA’s cash rate is now 75 basis points below the Federal Reserve target, the widest gap since 35 years ago when the Aussie dollar was first floated. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7160 and a high of 0.7236 before closing the day at 0.7188 in the New York session.

 

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading below 14 and above 50, 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is also issuing a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 53 and lies above the neutral zone. In general, the pair has lost 0.51%.

 

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading below 14 and above 50, 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish tone and MACD is also indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 55 reading and lies above the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.73%.

   

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 54 reading and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.72%.

   

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and below 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bearish tone and MACD is also issuing a bearish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 41 and lies below the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has gained 0.20%.

  

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading above 14, 50 and below 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish stance and MACD is indicating a bullish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 55 and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.48%.

 

Appendix

  

FOREX Closing Prices for October 02, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.15777 1.15789 1.15038 1.15461 -0.0031
USD/JPY 113.922 113.999 113.509 113.626 -0.2820
GBP/USD 1.30434 1.30467 1.29392 1.29774 -0.0061
USD/CHF 0.98363 0.9861 0.98272 0.98371 0.0001
USD/CAD 1.28122 1.28387 1.27971 1.28209 0.0010
EUR/JPY 131.937 131.977 130.689 131.229 -0.6750
GBP/JPY 148.63 148.697 147.168 147.473 -1.0770
CHF/JPY 115.807 115.895 115.26 115.474 -0.2980
AUD/JPY 82.273 82.444 81.342 81.658 -0.5950
EUR/GBP 0.8874 0.89123 0.88648 0.88948 0.0018
EUR/CHF 1.13868 1.13945 1.13102 1.13603 -0.0030
GBP/CHF 1.28278 1.28365 1.27345 1.27676 -0.0061

  

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1432 1.1468 1.1507 1.1543 1.1582 1.1618 1.1657
USD/JPY 112.93 113.22 113.42 113.71 113.91 114.20 114.40
GBP/USD 1.2821 1.2880 1.2929 1.2988 1.3036 1.3095 1.3144
USD/CHF 0.9789 0.9808 0.9823 0.9842 0.9856 0.9876 0.9890
USD/CAD 1.2758 1.2777 1.2799 1.2819 1.2841 1.2861 1.2882
EUR/JPY 129.33 130.01 130.62 131.30 131.91 132.59 133.20
GBP/JPY 145.33 146.25 146.86 147.78 148.39 149.31 149.92
CHF/JPY 114.56 114.91 115.19 115.54 115.83 116.18 116.46
AUD/JPY 80.08 80.71 81.19 81.81 82.29 82.92 83.39
EUR/GBP 0.8821 0.8843 0.8869 0.8891 0.8916 0.8938 0.8964
EUR/CHF 1.1231 1.1271 1.1316 1.1355 1.1400 1.1439 1.1484
GBP/CHF 1.2621 1.2678 1.2723 1.2780 1.2825 1.2882 1.2927

 

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

02 Окт 2018

Daily Market View

     

Daily Market View

Tuesday, October 02, 2018
          U.S Stock Market

 

DJIA S & P 500 NASDAQ
26671 2929.50 7673.75
+0.81% +0.46% +0.04%

U.S stocks rose after the last-minute clinching of a NAFTA deal bolstered confidence trade tensions would ease. Canada’s dollar remained higher, though Mexico’s peso gave back its rise. The S&P 500 Index cut a gain of 0.8 percent by half, with the bulk of the retreat coming during President Donald Trump’s hour-long press conference touting the trilateral deal. Domestically focused small caps declined. General Electric Co. surged after replacing its chief executive, while Tesla Inc. rallied after Elon Musk settled with regulators. The Loonie jumped 0.8 percent versus the dollar. Oil topped $74 a barrel in New York. A measure of confidence returned to markets after American and Canadian representatives announced a trade deal to be known as the U.S. Mexico Canada Agreement, making modest revisions to the old NAFTA framework. Political drama in Washington still swirled around Donald Trump’s Supreme Court nominee, but investors remained focus on a spate of corporate news and economic data due this week. Stocks are rallying on the back of a last-minute deal.

 

Major Economic Releases for Today
Period Event GMT Forecast Previous

oct

RBA Cash Rate Target 04:30 1.50% 1.50%

sep

Japan Consumer Confidence Index 05:00 43.1 43.3

sep

U.K Nationwide House Px NSA (YoY) 06:00 1.9% 2.0%

sep

Markit/CIPS UK Construction PMI 08:30 52.9 52.9

aug

Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (YoY) 09:00 3.8% 4.0%

 

Fed’s Chairman Powell Speaks at NABE Conference in Boston 16:00    

sep

New Zealand ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) 21:00   0.6%

sep

Australia AiG Performance of Service Index 22:30   52.2

sep

U.K BRC Shop Price Index (YoY) 23:01   0.1%
Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.73%. The best performers of the session on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were Boeing Co, which rose 2.79% or 10.39 points to trade at 382.29 at the close. Meanwhile, Chevron Corp added 1.73% or 2.11 points to end at 124.39 and American Express Company was up 1.32% or 1.41 points to 107.90 in late trade. The worst performers of the session were Intel Corporation, which fell 1.78% or 0.84 points to trade at 46.45 at the close. Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. declined 0.60% or 0.44 points to end at 72.46 and Walt Disney Company was down 0.60% or 0.70 points to 116.24.

 

 

NASDAQ 100

The NASDAQ index fell 0.11%. The top performers on the NASDAQ Composite were GreenPro Capital Corp which rose 157.81% to 9.900000, ARCA Biopharma Inc. which was up 82.14% to settle at 1.020 and New Age Beverages Corp which gained 67.29% to close at 8.95. The worst performers were Akorn Inc. which was down 58.71% to 5.36 in late trade, AVROBIO Inc. which lost 51.55% to settle at 25.13 and Rxi Pharmaceuticals Corp which was down 49.57% to 0.5900 at the close.

 

Oil

Oil futures looked to extend their gains to the third session in a row, with U.S and global crude prices both eyeing their highest settlements in nearly four years. Oil prices climbed with the market still turning a nervous eye towards Iranian production losses. While official U.S. sanctions against Iranian oil exports are still just over a month away, Iran’s exports have already declined by at least 30% according to multiple estimates, as foreign buyers look elsewhere to source oil. November U.S oil, rose $1.45, or 2%, to $74.70 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Yesterday’s moves come after Brent crude posted a weekly gain of 5%, based on the front-month contract, while WTI oil saw a weekly climb of 3.5%. Crude’s rally over the past few months has been buoyed by declining Iranian crude exports ahead of U.S. economic sanctions against the Islamic Republic’s oil industry, set to take effect Nov. 4. On Friday, however, Baker Hughes reported a second straight weekly decline.

 

 

 

Precious and Base Metals

Gold edged down yesterday, holding a tight range, on expectations that a strong U.S economy would bring higher U.S interest rates and boost the Dollar. Spot gold was down 0.4 percent at $1,187.18 an ounce, staying between $1,192.22 and $1,184.21. It fell as low as $1,180.34 in the previous session. U.S. gold futures for December delivery fell 0.3 percent to $1,192.90. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell last week said the U.S. central bank plans gradual increases to interest rates. This could further boost the U.S currency, making dollar-priced gold more expensive for holders of other currencies and potentially subduing demand. The main news in gold is still related to the Fed. Following Jerome Powell’s speech last week, the market is expecting one more rate hike in December and another three next year. The Fed raised U.S rates last week and said it planned four more increases by the end of 2019 and another in 2020, citing steady economic growth and a robust jobs market. Higher U.S. interest rates tend to boost the dollar, putting pressure on gold prices by increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion. Sellers remain in control and it is quite technical trading at the moment. We are currently operating in a tight range of $1,181 – $1,193. If we break below $1,181, there is a heightened risk of a move toward an August low of $1,160. Gold has fallen more than 13 percent from its April high, largely because of the stronger dollar, which has been boosted by a vibrant U.S. economy and fears of a global trade war. Investors have also opted to buy the dollar and U.S. Treasury bonds as safe investments instead of gold. Speculators raised their net short position in gold by 2,923 lots to 77,313 lots, the largest in three weeks, in the week to Sept. 25, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data showed. Silver slipped 0.8 percent to $14.48 and platinum rose 0.6 percent to $817. Softer Chinese data released overnight has just removed some bids we saw coming in for semi and industrial metals last week.

 

 

 

Traditional Agricultures

Soybean futures slid for a second session, pressured by a rise in U.S stocks to an 11-year high and expectations of a record crop, while corn rose as low prices and a U.S-Canada-Mexico trade deal tempted buyers.

 

 

Futures Settlement Price Monday, October 01, 2018
Instrument Contract Open High Low Settlement Net Change
DJIA DJM18 26518 26751 26514 26671 181
S & P 500 SPM18 2922.5 2941.75 2922.5 2929.5 9.5
NASDAQ 100 NDM18 7671.25 7728 7651.5 7673.75 10.75
Hang Seng HSH18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Nikkei 225 NKH18 24245 24315 24130 24305 160
FTSE 100 FTH18 7513 7515 7437 7465.5 0
Gold GCJ18 1192.1 1195.5 1187.9 1192.4 -3.3
Silver SIK18 1461 1465 1438 1450 -19
Copper HGK18 280.3 282.1 275.5 278.55 -2
Crude Oil CLK18 73.39 75.74 72.91 75.44 2.28
Wheat WK18 511 514.75 505.25 509.25 0.5
Soybeans SK18 845 863.5 842.75 856.75 11.75
Corn CK18 356.75 366 356.25 365.5 9.75

 

 

Daily Swings  (The Pivot Levels)
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
DJM18 26303 26408 26540 26645 26777 26882 27014
SPM18 2901.50 2912.00 2920.75 2931.25 2940.00 2950.50 2959.25
NDM18 7564.33 7607.92 7640.83 7684.42 7717.33 7760.92 7793.83
HSH18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
NKH18 24000 24065 24185 24250 24370 24435 24555
FTH18 7352.00 7394.50 7430.00 7472.50 7508.00 7550.50 7586.00
GCJ18 1180.77 1184.33 1188.37 1191.93 1195.97 1199.53 1203.57
SIK18 1410.00 1424.00 1437.00 1451.00 1464.00 1478.00 1491.00
HGK18 268.73 272.12 275.33 278.72 281.93 285.32 288.53
CLK18 70.82 71.87 73.65 74.70 76.48 77.53 79.31
WK18 495.25 500.25 504.75 509.75 514.25 519.25 523.75
SK18 824.42 833.58 845.17 854.33 865.92 875.08 886.67
CK18 349.42 352.83 359.17 362.58 368.92 372.33 378.67

 

 Source: – News & Quotes (Courtesy:  Reuters)                                                                    

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

 

 

02 Окт 2018

FOREX Newsletter

FOREX Newsletter

October 02, 2018

 

Pulse of the Market

·      Higher US Treasury yields boosted appeal for the Greenback yesterday

·      The Euro struggled to stay above 1.16 levels on the Italian budget concerns

·      The Canadian Dollar rallied half a per cent against the US Dollar yesterday

·      A ruling Conservative Party Conference got underway over the weekend

The big story in the FX market was the U.S.-Canada trade deal. In the eleventh hour, the 2 neighboring countries managed to secure a deal that will be known as the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA for short). This agreement should be enough to end months of uncertainty and the pave the way for an interest rate hike as quickly as this month. At the end of last week, before the trade deal was finalized investors were already pricing in a 90% of an October move. Today, those odds increased to 96% – which means the market basically sees a guaranteed hike. Last week’s GDP report confirmed that the economy is performing well and earlier in the week, Bank of Canada Governor Poloz said uncertainty shouldn’t prevent rate hikes. Now that this uncertainty has been lifted, the value of USD/CAD could start to reflect the odds of tightening. We see the pair falling to at least the May lows around 1.2740 especially with Canadian bond yields soaring and oil prices rising to its highest level since 2014. Canada’s IVEY PMI and labor market reports are due later this week but unless they are abysmal, they should not affect the BoC’s decision to normalize monetary policy by raising interest rates in the very near future. By now, no one should be surprised to see sterling jockeyed around by Brexit headlines. This is a big week for the UK with the Tory Party Conference underway that will end with an important speech by Prime Minister May on Wednesday. Today, GBP/USD soared above 1.31 on the back of reports that May is “preparing to make a significant new Brexit offer to the European Union in an attempt to open the door to a deal.” The Irish border is the main issue blocking progress and maybe she finally willing to concede for full access to the customs union. All of these domestic factors were more important than US data. Although manufacturing activity and construction spending slowed more than expected, the greenback extended its gains against the Japanese Yen, euro and Swiss Franc. It sold off versus the sterling, Canadian and Australian dollars. There are a lot of US economic reports and Fed speak on this week’s calendar that could affect dollar trade but as long as the data isn’t terrible, the greenback could extend its gains. Euro extended its losses against the greenback for the fourth consecutive trading session. Downward revisions to EZ PMIs and the fear that Italy will be downgraded by one of the major rating agencies are keeping the currency under pressure.

 

Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
04:30 RBA Cash Rate Target (OCT 2) High 1.50% 1.50%
05:00 Japan Consumer Confidence Index (SEP) Medium 43.1 43.3
06:00 U.K Nationwide House Px NSA (YoY) (SEP) Medium 1.9% 2.0%
08:30 Markit/CIPS UK Construction PMI (SEP) Medium 52.9 52.9
09:00 Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (YoY) (AUG) Low 3.8% 4.0%
14:00 U.S Fed’s Quarles Testifies to Senate Banking Committee Low
16:00 U.S Fed’s Chairman Powell Speaks at NABE Conference in Boston High
22:30 Australia AiG Performance of Service Index (SEP) Medium 52.2
23:01 U.K BRC Shop Price Index (YoY) (SEP) Low 0.1%

 

Euro

The single currency fell yesterday as top Euro zone officials expressed concern over Italy’s 2019 draft budget that could increase the country’s debt, and signaled they expected changes in the coming weeks. Italy’s Eurosceptic government proposed on Thursday a budget that increases the deficit to 2.4 percent of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) next year. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1562 and a high of 1.1623 before closing the day around 1.1576 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen weakened to 113.96 per Dollar, reaching its lowest since the middle of November 2017 before paring some losses. The greenback has risen four straight weeks against the Japanese currency, including a nearly 1 percent gain booked last week. For the third quarter, the dollar index posted its second consecutive quarterly gain. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 113.70 and a high of 114.04 before closing the day around 113.90 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound strengthened at the start of the new month thanks to a strong Manufacturing PMI reading and news that the U.K. was prepared to shift its stance on the Irish border question to seal a Brexit deal before year-end. U.K Prime Minister Theresa May is reported to be preparing a significant new Brexit offer to the European Union. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.3010 and a high of 1.3114 before closing the day at 1.3038 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar gained sharply against the U.S Dollar as the United States and Canada reached a framework deal to update the North American Free Trade Agreement. Sources with direct knowledge of the talks confirmed the two countries reached a deal, which involved offering more dairy access to U.S farmers.  Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.2780 and a high of 1.2860 before closing the day at 1.2810 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar almost ended the day unchanged against the Greenback. The main release for the Australian Dollar in the week ahead is the Reserve Bank of Australia policy meeting today. The RBA is not expected to raise interest rates at the meeting despite steady growth. The minutes from the last meeting showed the governing council does not see any change in policy in the near-term. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7200 and a high of 0.7239 before closing the day at 0.7218 in the New York session.

 

 

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is issuing a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 60 and lies above the neutral zone. In general, the pair has gained 0.02%.

 

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bullish tone and MACD is also indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 62 reading and lies above the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has gained 0.29%.

  

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is also indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 63 reading and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.26%.

  

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bearish tone and MACD is also issuing a bearish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 41 and lies below the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.28%.

 

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading above 14, 50 and below 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bullish stance and MACD is also indicating a bullish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 60 and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.29%.

 

Appendix

  

FOREX Closing Prices for October 01, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.16032 1.16235 1.15622 1.15766 -0.0025
USD/JPY 113.735 114.043 113.708 113.908 0.2420
GBP/USD 1.30298 1.31149 1.30102 1.30388 0.0009
USD/CHF 0.98116 0.98541 0.98053 0.98364 0.0019
USD/CAD 1.28384 1.286 1.278 1.28109 -0.0105
EUR/JPY 131.984 132.439 131.714 131.904 0.0240
GBP/JPY 148.213 149.392 148.186 148.55 0.4310
CHF/JPY 115.888 116.15 115.66 115.772 0.0170
AUD/JPY 82.144 82.368 82.035 82.253 0.2130
EUR/GBP 0.89033 0.8913 0.88582 0.88768 -0.0025
EUR/CHF 1.13865 1.1426 1.13621 1.13906 0.0000
GBP/CHF 1.27852 1.2882 1.27738 1.28289 0.0037

 

 

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1490 1.1526 1.1551 1.1587 1.1613 1.1649 1.1674
USD/JPY 113.39 113.55 113.73 113.89 114.06 114.22 114.40
GBP/USD 1.2890 1.2950 1.2994 1.3055 1.3099 1.3159 1.3204
USD/CHF 0.9761 0.9783 0.9810 0.9832 0.9859 0.9881 0.9907
USD/CAD 1.2694 1.2737 1.2774 1.2817 1.2854 1.2897 1.2934
EUR/JPY 130.87 131.29 131.60 132.02 132.32 132.74 133.05
GBP/JPY 146.82 147.50 148.03 148.71 149.23 149.92 150.44
CHF/JPY 115.08 115.37 115.57 115.86 116.06 116.35 116.55
AUD/JPY 81.74 81.89 82.07 82.22 82.40 82.55 82.74
EUR/GBP 0.8798 0.8828 0.8852 0.8883 0.8907 0.8937 0.8962
EUR/CHF 1.1296 1.1329 1.1360 1.1393 1.1424 1.1457 1.1488
GBP/CHF 1.2666 1.2720 1.2774 1.2828 1.2883 1.2936 1.2991

 

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

01 Окт 2018

FOREX Newsletter

FOREX Newsletter

October 01, 2018

 

Pulse of the Market

·      The last week of the third quarter was another good one for the U.S Dollar

·      The Euro was hit hard after the newly elected government decided on a 2.4% deficit target for 2019

·      This week is an important one for the British pound because there’s a Tory Party Conference

·      Canada failed to reach a trade deal with the US this past week

The Greenback climbed to 13-month highs against the Japanese Yen and renewed its rally versus the Swiss Franc, euro and Australian Dollar. Interest rate differentials played a major role in the dollar’s rise as the Federal Reserve raised interest for the third time this year. There were a lot of big stories that affected currencies this month including trade wars, Brexit and Italy’s debt crisis. The Japanese Yen was hit hard but the biggest losers were the euro and Swiss Franc. Sterling was the most resilient but trader positioning was the only reason for the currency’s steady performance. As we look ahead, many of the events that affected currency trade in September will continue to rattle the forex market in October. The UK has a Tory Conference this weekend, Italy’s Economy Minister Giovanni Tria could still resign while US-Canada trade negotiations continue. This means that while some of the major currencies found a bottom in late August or early September, they are still at risk of further losses in the third quarter. The market’s focus on the direction of U.S. monetary policy is the one thing that could change in October. After raising interest rates by 25bp at their last meeting, the Federal Reserve is not expected to change policy for another 2.5 months. One of the main reasons why the dollar is strong is because the Fed’s dot plot moved in favor of another rate hike in December. In June, only half of the Fed Presidents saw 4 rate hikes this year but now 75% of them support an additional move before year-end. As a result, investors have priced in a 72% chance of another quarter point lift in rates. The biggest problem for the euro is Italy. The single currency was hit hard on Friday after the newly elected populist government decided on a 2.4% deficit target for 2019. Both the EU and the country’s finance minister had hoped to keep the budget between 1.6% and 2% of GDP, but the coalition defied their wishes by agreeing on a much higher budget deficit. In response, Italian stocks collapsed and yields spiked higher. The euro was the casualty of these moves because investors are worried that this decision will lead to more trouble for Italy. While the new deficit target is still below the EU’s 3% limit, the decision to go against Finance Minister Tria’s recommendation could prompt his resignation. As an independent economist, his appointment was a move to reassure the markets so a resignation could cripple the government.

 

 

Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
07:15 Switzerland Retail Sales Real (YoY) (AUG) Medium     -0.3%
07:30 Switzerland PMI Manufacturing (SEP) Medium     64.8
08:30 U.K Net Consumer Credit (AUG) Medium     0.8b
08:30 U.K Mortgage Approvals (AUG) Medium     64.8k
08:30 Markit UK PMI Manufacturing s.a. (SEP) Medium     52.8
09:00 Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate (AUG) Medium     8.2%
13:30 RBC Canadian Manufacturing PMI (SEP) High     56.8
14:00 U.S Construction Spending (MoM) (AUG) Medium     0.1%
14:00 U.S ISM Manufacturing (SEP) High   60 61.3
14:00 U.S ISM Employment (SEP) High     58.5
14:00 U.S ISM Prices Paid (SEP) Medium     72.1

 

 

Euro

The single currency slipped below $1.16 on Friday for the first time in two weeks after Italy’s government agreed on a budget seen by some investors as defying Brussels. The single currency recorded its biggest one-day decline for nearly two months on Thursday as the battle over fiscal policy intensified in the euro zone’s third largest economy. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1568 and a high of 1.1649 before closing the day around 1.1601 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen pair gained following the divergence between the monetary policies of the hawkish U.S Fed and the dovish Bank of Japan helped drive the Dollar/Yen to its highest level since December 21. The widely expected Fed rate hike last week also widened the spread between U.S Government bond yields and Japanese Government bond yields. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 113.30 and a high of 113.67 before closing the day around 113.66 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound moved over momentum inspired from Brexit headlines and US Greenback’s strength due to a silent macro calendar on UK market. Pound longs finally gave up to dollar’s strength, and the GBP/USD pair broke below the 1.3100 level. Negotiations on Brexit aren’t going nearly as swimmingly as many people were expecting only a few weeks ago. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.2998 and a high of 1.3088 before closing the day at 1.3029 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar notched its largest gain in two months on Friday after faster-than-expected growth of the domestic economy boosted expectations of an interest rate hike from the BOC in October. It left the loonie as the best performing G10 currency on Friday despite the expected release of the text of the Trump administration’s trade agreement. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.2907 and a high of 1.3046 before closing the day at 1.2915 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar was pressured all week by rising U.S interest rates, solid U.S economic data and lower demand for risky assets. With the Fed raising rates for a third time this year and signaling more to come, the spread between U.S interest rates and Australian interest rates continued widen, making the U.S Dollar a more attractive investment. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7200 and a high of 0.7239 before closing the day at 0.7218 in the New York session.

 

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is issuing a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 59 and lies above the neutral zone. In general, the pair has lost 0.06%.

 

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bullish tone and MACD is also indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 60 reading and lies above the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.09%.

 

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is also indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 60 reading and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.44%.

  

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bearish tone and MACD is issuing a bullish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 45 and lies below the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has gained 0.03%.

  

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bullish stance and MACD is also indicating a bullish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 58 and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.11%.

 

Appendix

  

FOREX Closing Prices for September 28, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.16386 1.16498 1.15683 1.16014 -0.0038
USD/JPY 113.368 113.674 113.301 113.666 0.3040
GBP/USD 1.30739 1.30885 1.29985 1.30294 -0.0047
USD/CHF 0.97711 0.98173 0.97356 0.9817 0.0046
USD/CAD 1.30425 1.30468 1.29078 1.29155 -0.0124
EUR/JPY 131.962 132.284 131.157 131.88 -0.0820
GBP/JPY 148.213 148.617 147.515 148.119 -0.1350
CHF/JPY 115.991 116.417 115.678 115.755 -0.2400
AUD/JPY 81.671 82.173 81.60 82.04 0.3620
EUR/GBP 0.88993 0.89126 0.88708 0.89018 0.0003
EUR/CHF 1.13742 1.13966 1.12787 1.13903 0.0016
GBP/CHF 1.2776 1.27968 1.26947 1.27918 0.0014

  

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1482 1.1525 1.1563 1.1607 1.1645 1.1688 1.1726
USD/JPY 113.05 113.17 113.42 113.55 113.79 113.92 114.17
GBP/USD 1.2899 1.2949 1.2989 1.3039 1.3079 1.3129 1.3169
USD/CHF 0.9681 0.9708 0.9763 0.9790 0.9844 0.9872 0.9926
USD/CAD 1.2728 1.2818 1.2867 1.2957 1.3006 1.3096 1.3145
EUR/JPY 130.14 130.65 131.26 131.77 132.39 132.90 133.52
GBP/JPY 146.45 146.98 147.55 148.08 148.65 149.19 149.75
CHF/JPY 114.74 115.21 115.48 115.95 116.22 116.69 116.96
AUD/JPY 81.13 81.36 81.70 81.94 82.28 82.51 82.85
EUR/GBP 0.8836 0.8853 0.8878 0.8895 0.8919 0.8937 0.8961
EUR/CHF 1.1196 1.1237 1.1314 1.1355 1.1432 1.1473 1.1550
GBP/CHF 1.2623 1.2659 1.2725 1.2761 1.2828 1.2863 1.2930

 

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

01 Окт 2018

Daily Market View

 

Daily Market View

Monday, October 01, 2018
          U.S Stock Market

 

DJIA S & P 500 NASDAQ
26490 2920.00 7663.500
+0.07%  0.00% +0.05%

U.S stocks ended virtually unchanged to cap the best quarterly advance in five years. The Dollar edged higher. The S&P 500 Index saw the best quarter since 2013, even as the benchmark experienced its first weekly loss in three weeks. Financial shares paced losses, while technology firms led gains. Facebook shares declined more than 2 percent after the tech giant said a security breach affected about 50 million users. Tesla Inc. tumbled the most in five years after securities regulators filed a lawsuit against Elon Musk’s carmaker. Oil had the longest run of weekly gains in four months as energy giants to Wall Street banks predicted the return of $100 crude on an impending supply crunch. The dollar erased earlier gains after data showed U.S consumer spending cooled in August, while the 10-year Treasury yield traded near 3.05 percent. In Europe, Italy’s populists won their battle to fund costly campaign promises, while infighting over Brexit is embroiling the U.K’s Conservative Party. The yen’s slide to the weakest level this year helped stoke Japanese stocks.

 

Major Economic Releases for Today
Period Event GMT Forecast Previous

aug

Switzerland Retail Sales Real (YoY) 07:15   -0.3%

sep

Switzerland PMI Manufacturing 07:30   64.8

aug

U.K Net Consumer Credit 08:30   0.8b

aug

U.K Mortgage Approvals 08:30   64.8k

sep

Markit UK PMI Manufacturing s.a. 08:30   52.8

aug

Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate 09:00   8.2%

sep

RBC Canadian Manufacturing PMI 13:30   56.8

sep

U.S ISM Manufacturing 14:00 60 61.3

sep

U.S ISM Employment 14:00   58.5
Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.07%. The best performers of the session on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were Intel Corporation, which rose 3.08% or 1.42 points to trade at 47.30 at the close. Meanwhile, Boeing Co added 1.23% or 4.51 points to end at 371.90 and Walt Disney Company was up 0.78% or 0.90 points to 116.94 in late trade. The worst performers of the session were Dow DuPont Inc., which fell 1.56% or 1.02 points to trade at 64.31 at the close. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. declined 1.54% or 3.50 points to end at 224.24 and JPMorgan Chase & Co was down 1.47% or 1.68 points to 112.84.

 

 

NASDAQ 100

The tech heavy NASDAQ index gained 0.05%. The top performers on the NASDAQ Composite were Sky Solar Holdings Adr Rep 8 which rose 47.39% to 0.678, AGM Group Holdings Inc. Class A which was up 34.21% to settle at 39.00 and New Age Beverages Corp which gained 30.81% to close at 5.35. The worst performers were Altimmune Inc. which was down 49.89% to 4.400 in late trade, Rxi Pharmaceuticals Corp which lost 28.22% to settle at 1.1700 and Monaker Group Inc. which was down 24.56% to 2.1501 at the close.

 

 

Oil

Oil posted the longest string of quarterly gains in more than a decade as impending supply disruptions threaten to fracture a global market with little margin for error. Futures rose 1.6 percent in New York on Friday while Brent racked up its fifth quarterly advance, a streak not seen since the first half of 2008. This historical echo comes as consumers once again eye supply disruptions and worry about the availability of backup supplies, just as they were a decade ago when the benchmark hit an all-time high above $147. The market is getting more nervous about Iranian sanctions especially on reports that Sinopec is cutting back” on purchases from the Persian Gulf nation. Oil has risen to the highest in almost four years in London after OPEC showed little enthusiasm for raising output despite President Donald Trump’s demand for lower prices. The world will need additional supplies as U.S sanctions dissuade major importers including India and South Korea from purchasing Iranian oil.

 

 

 

Precious and Base Metals

Gold hit a fresh six-week low on Friday as the dollar firmed after upbeat U.S. economic data supported the Federal Reserve’s resolve for steady interest rate hikes, putting the metal on track for its longest monthly losing streak since January 1997. Gold was down about 1.6 percent in September, its sixth straight monthly loss. Spot gold rose 0.9 percent to $1,192.53 an ounce. The metal touched its lowest since Aug. 17 at $1,180.34 an ounce earlier in the session, dipping further from a six-week low of $1,181.61 hit on Thursday. U.S gold futures rose 0.7 percent at $1,196.10 an ounce. The dollar gained against its peers on Friday as data showed U.S. economic growth accelerated in the second quarter at its fastest pace in nearly four years. Another report showed durable goods rose 4.5 percent in August, rebounding from a revised 1.2 percent drop the month before. The short-term outlook is bearish for gold as the dollar may see some upside due to an ongoing trade war between China and the U.S. and the Federal Reserve interest rate hike outlook. The Fed raised interest rates on Wednesday and said it planned four more increases by the end of 2019 and another in 2020. Robust U.S. economic fundamentals despite an escalation in trade tariffs have done little to lift demand for the non-interest bearing asset. The outlook for gold prices in the current term remains dim as such in lieu of rising rates and yields amidst buoyant U.S. economic conditions. Gold is down more than 13 percent from an April high, largely because of the stronger dollar, which has been boosted by a vibrant U.S. economy and fears of a global trade war. Investors have bought the greenback instead of gold as a safe investment. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump’s accusation of Chinese meddling in the upcoming U.S. elections marks a new phase in an escalating pressure campaign against Beijing that Washington is pursuing on multiple fronts, senior U.S officials said on Thursday.

 

 

 

Traditional Agricultures

Grain futures slumped on Friday after the U.S Department of Agriculture said farmers and crop handlers had more supplies in storage than analysts expected. The bigger-than-expected inventories from previous harvests add to an oversupply.

 

 

Futures Settlement Price Friday, September 28, 2018
Instrument Contract Open High Low Settlement Net Change
DJIA DJM18 26497 26531 26345 26490 18
S & P 500 SPM18 2922.25 2925.25 2908 2920 0
NASDAQ 100 NDM18 7663 7676.25 7616.75 7663 5.5
Hang Seng HSH18 27817 27930 27645 27872 168
Nikkei 225 NKH18 24050 24285 23995 24145 305
FTSE 100 FTH18 7513 7515 7437 7465.5 -39
Gold GCJ18 1187 1197.1 1184.1 1195.7 9.4
Silver SIK18 1426.5 1474 1424.5 1469 43
Copper HGK18 277.45 281.3 276.3 280.55 2.9
Crude Oil CLK18 72.16 73.69 71.85 73.16 1
Wheat WK18 512 517.5 505 508.75 -4
Soybeans SK18 853.5 859 841.5 845 -9.5
Corn CK18 364.25 366.25 354.25 355.75 -8.5

 

 

Daily Swings  (The Pivot Levels)
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2
DJM18 26194 26269 26380 26455 26566 26641 26752
SPM18 2893.00 2900.50 2910.25 2917.75 2927.50 2935.00 2944.75
NDM18 7568.25 7592.50 7627.75 7652.00 7687.25 7711.50 7746.75
HSH18 27416 27531 27701 27816 27986 28101 28271
NKH18 23708 23852 23998 24142 24288 24432 24578
FTH18 7352.00 7394.50 7430.00 7472.50 7508.00 7550.50 7586.00
GCJ18 1174.50 1179.30 1187.50 1192.30 1200.50 1205.30 1213.50
SIK18 1388.17 1406.33 1437.67 1455.83 1487.17 1505.33 1536.67
HGK18 272.47 274.38 277.47 279.38 282.47 284.38 287.47
CLK18 70.27 71.06 72.11 72.90 73.95 74.74 75.79
WK18 490.83 497.92 503.33 510.42 515.83 522.92 528.33
SK18 820.50 831.00 838.00 848.50 855.50 866.00 873.00
CK18 339.25 346.75 351.25 358.75 363.25 370.75 375.25

 

 Source: – News & Quotes (Courtesy:  Reuters)                                                                    

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