16 Окт 2018

FOREX Newsletter

FOREX Newsletter

October 16, 2018

 

Pulse of the Market

·      The U.S Dollar dipped yesterday after retail sales data for September missed expectations

·      U.S retail sales barely rose in September as a rebound in motor vehicle purchases

·      Safe haven Japanese yen and the Swiss franc gained yesterday as European stocks tumbled

·      The Canadian Dollar strengthened to its highest in five days against its U.S counterpart

The U.S Dollar fell in yesterday’s trading session after retail sales data for September missed economists’ expectations, and as benchmark U.S Treasury yields consolidated after last week hitting their highest level in seven years. U.S. retail sales barely rose in September as a rebound in motor vehicle purchases was offset by the biggest drop in spending at restaurants and bars in nearly two years. Retail sales edged up only 0.1 percent in the month. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast an increase of 0.6 percent. We had softer than expected retail sales that was another leg of dollar selling. It comes after data last week showed that U.S. consumer prices rose less than expected in September, held back by a slower increase in the cost of rent and falling energy prices, as underlying inflation pressures appeared to cool. Higher 10-year Treasury yields, which on Tuesday shot to 3.26 percent, helped to boost the greenback last week. With yields now having retraced to 3.15 percent, investors are looking for fresh impetus for dollar buying. Safe haven currencies the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc gained on Monday as European stocks tumbled to 22-month lows, with rising tensions between Western powers and Saudi Arabia adding to a cocktail of concerns that battered global stocks last week. Saudi Arabia has been under pressure since a prominent Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi, a critic of Riyadh and a U.S. resident, disappeared on Oct. 2 after visiting the Saudi consulate in Istanbul. Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Bavarian sister party also said on Monday it would back political stability in Berlin after suffering big losses in a regional election which their far-right foes hailed as “an earthquake” that would rock the coalition government. The Japanese Yen hit a one-month high and the Swiss franc rallied yesterday as rising geopolitical tension and further falls in equity markets left investors skittish at the start of the week. Canadian Dollar gained yesterday as Canadian business sentiment remains at elevated levels, with companies expecting to ramp up investment to build new capacity and accommodate demand. The central bank has hiked interest rates four times since July 2017 to leave its policy rate at 1.50 per cent.

 

 

Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
00:30 RBA Meeting Minutes (OCT 2) Medium      
01:30 China Producer Price Index (YoY) (SEP) Medium   3.6% 4.1%
01:30 China Consumer Price Index (YoY) (SEP) High   2.5% 2.3%
08:30 U.K Claimant Count Rate (SEP) Medium     2.6%
08:30 U.K Jobless Claims Change (SEP) Medium     8.7k
09:00 German ZEW Survey Current Situation (OCT) Medium   74.4 76
09:00 German ZEW Survey Expectations (OCT) High   -12 -10.6
09:00 Euro-Zone ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) (OCT) High     -7.2
13:15 U.S Industrial Production (MoM) (SEP) Medium   0.2% 0.4%
13:15 U.S Manufacturing (SIC) Production (SEP) Medium   0.2% 0.2%
14:00 U.S NAHB Housing Market Index (OCT) Medium   67 67
20:00 U.S Net Long-term TIC Flows (AUG) Medium     $74.8b

 

Euro

The single currency was higher in yesterday’s trading session. On the release front, there were no Eurozone events. In the U.S, the focus was on retail sales reports. The week ended on a high note, with solid inflation numbers in Germany. Inflation climbed 2.3% in September on a year-to-year basis, its strongest gain since November 2011. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1541 and a high of 1.1604 before closing the day around 1.1577 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen hit a one-month high as rising geopolitical tension and investor anxiety about the global economy left investors skittish at the start of the week. Equity markets fell on worries the ongoing U.S trade dispute is hitting China’s economy. Analysts expect the yen to strengthen as a downturn in equities catalyzes safe-haven demand for the yen. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 111.60 and a high of 112.21 before closing the day around 111.75 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound capped losses following a weekend of fruitless Brexit talks on conviction that the U.K. and the European Union would eventually reach a deal to avoid a chaotic divorce. The risks to any bullish sterling views include leaders not agreeing on the Brexit divorce terms. Both the U.K. and the EU have stepped up contingency planning in case negotiations fail. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.3094 and a high of 1.3179 before closing the day at 1.3150 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar strengthened to its highest in five days against its U.S counterpart yesterday, after a quarterly business survey by the Bank of Canada supported bets for another interest rate hike from the central bank as soon as next week. Canadian business optimism remained at near-record levels in the third quarter. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.2952 and a high of 1.3049 before closing the day at 1.2987 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar strengthened against all major currencies except the Japanese yen. Last week, the Australian dollar ended the week higher against the US dollar after rebounding from the bottom-end of its trading range. Notably, week-over-week trading volumes in Australian dollar futures accelerated for the third week in a row.  Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7097 and a high of 0.7147 before closing the day at 0.7138 in the New York session.

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading below 14 and above 50, 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is also issuing a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 43 and lies below the neutral zone. In general, the pair has lost 0.20%.

 

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading below 14 and above 50, 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish tone and MACD is also indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 49 reading and lies below the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.38%.

 

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is also indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 41 reading and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.13%.

 

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bullish tone and MACD is issuing a bearish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 42 and lies below the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has gained 0.18%.

  

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish stance and MACD is indicating a bullish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 61 and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.50%.

 

Appendix

  

FOREX Closing Prices for October 15, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.15494 1.16047 1.15416 1.15779 0.0021
USD/JPY 112.141 112.217 111.606 111.75 -0.4210
GBP/USD 1.30978 1.31799 1.30941 1.31508 -0.0001
USD/CHF 0.99132 0.99166 0.98461 0.98693 -0.0048
USD/CAD 1.30225 1.3049 1.29527 1.29872 -0.0041
EUR/JPY 129.53 129.775 129.102 129.394 -0.2620
GBP/JPY 146.899 147.403 146.481 146.974 -0.5660
CHF/JPY 113.091 113.481 112.741 113.214 0.1370
AUD/JPY 79.7 79.937 79.448 79.668 -0.1050
EUR/GBP 0.88156 0.88239 0.87938 0.88015 0.0016
EUR/CHF 1.14502 1.14621 1.14125 1.14262 -0.0036
GBP/CHF 1.29856 1.30016 1.29436 1.29791 -0.0065

  

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1482 1.1512 1.1545 1.1575 1.1608 1.1638 1.1671
USD/JPY 110.89 111.25 111.50 111.86 112.11 112.47 112.72
GBP/USD 1.3018 1.3056 1.3103 1.3142 1.3189 1.3227 1.3275
USD/CHF 0.9768 0.9807 0.9838 0.9877 0.9909 0.9948 0.9979
USD/CAD 1.2847 1.2900 1.2944 1.2996 1.3040 1.3093 1.3136
EUR/JPY 128.40 128.75 129.07 129.42 129.75 130.10 130.42
GBP/JPY 145.58 146.03 146.50 146.95 147.42 147.87 148.35
CHF/JPY 112.07 112.41 112.81 113.15 113.55 113.89 114.29
AUD/JPY 78.94 79.20 79.43 79.68 79.92 80.17 80.41
EUR/GBP 0.8759 0.8776 0.8789 0.8806 0.8819 0.8837 0.8849
EUR/CHF 1.1356 1.1384 1.1405 1.1434 1.1455 1.1483 1.1504
GBP/CHF 1.2890 1.2917 1.2948 1.2975 1.3006 1.3033 1.3064

 

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

16 Окт 2018

Daily Market View

Daily Market View

Tuesday, October 16, 2018
          U.S Stock Market

 

DJIA S & P 500 NASDAQ
25196 2748.75 7075.75
+0.23% +0.07% -0.25%

U.S stocks dropped earlier in the session yesterday as rising tensions between Western powers and Saudi Arabia added to worries over rising borrowing costs and the impact of tariffs following the three indexes’ biggest weekly declines in over seven months. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 7.53 points, or 0.03 percent, at the open. The S&P 500 opened lower by 3.30 points, or 0.12 percent. The NASDAQ dropped 23.57 points, or 0.31 percent at the opening bell. U.S retail sales barely rose in September as a rebound in motor vehicle purchases was offset by the biggest drop in spending at restaurants and bars in nearly two years. But other details of the report from the Commerce Department on Monday were upbeat and suggested that consumer spending ended the third quarter with strong momentum, which should provide a boost to economic growth despite anticipated drags from weak exports and a struggling housing market. Retail sales in September rose 4.7 percent from a year ago.

 

Major Economic Releases for Today
Period Event GMT Forecast Previous

sep

China Producer Price Index (YoY) 01:30 3.6% 4.1%

sep

China Consumer Price Index (YoY) 01:30 2.5% 2.3%

sep

U.K Claimant Count Rate 08:30   2.6%

sep

U.K Jobless Claims Change 08:30   8.7k

oct

German ZEW Survey Expectations 09:00 -12 -10.6

oct

Euro-Zone ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) 09:00   -7.2

sep

U.S Industrial Production (MoM) 13:15 0.2% 0.4%

oct

U.S NAHB Housing Market Index 14:00 67 67

aug

U.S Net Long-term TIC Flows 20:00   $74.8b
Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.35%. The best performers of the session on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc., which rose 1.66% or 1.22 points to trade at 74.72 at the close. Meanwhile, Procter & Gamble Company added 1.35% or 1.07 points to end at 80.13 and Walt Disney Company was up 0.74% or 0.83 points to 113.44 in late trade. The worst performers of the session were Cisco Systems Inc., which fell 2.28% or 1.04 points to trade at 44.67 at the close. Apple Inc. declined 2.14% or 4.75 points to end at 217.36.

 

 

NASDAQ 100

The NASDAQ fell 0.88%. Top performers were Flex Pharma Inc. which rose 79.25%, Globus Maritime Ltd which was up 41.30% to settle at 6.5000 and Auris Medical Holding AG which gained 40.82% to close at 1.380. The worst performers were Soligenix Inc. which was down 26.21% to 1.0700 in late trade, Sears Holdings Corporation which lost 23.83% to settle at 0.31 and China Internet Nationwide Financial Services Inc. which was down 22.63% to 2.77 at the close.

 

 

Oil

Oil prices steadied yesterday as tension over the disappearance of a prominent Saudi journalist stoked supply worries, balancing concerns over the long-term demand outlook. Crude markets were also supported in the wake of data that showed South Korea did not import any oil from Iran in September for the first time in six years, before U.S sanctions against the Middle Eastern country take effect in November. Yesterday, Trump said he had spoken with King Salman about Khashoggi and that he was sending Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to meet the king immediately. Trump also told reporters he believes “rogue killers” may have been responsible for Khashoggi’s disappearance. The comment from the president eased nerves in the oil market by opening a potential pathway for the royal family to escape culpability. It takes some of the angst out of the market that had been built up over the weekend. Saudi Arabia has been under pressure since Khashoggi, a critic of Riyadh and a U.S. resident, disappeared on Oct. 2 after visiting the Saudi consulate in Istanbul.

 

 

 

Precious and Base Metals

Gold rose more than 1 percent yesterday to its highest in about 2-1/2 months as investors sought refuge in the metal after mounting tensions between Western powers and Saudi Arabia compounded jitters in global stock markets. Spot gold was up 1 percent at $1,230.05 per ounce, having touched its highest since July 26 at $1,233.26. U.S gold futures rose 1 percent to $1,234.20. Gold has now got a stronger tailwind from a flight to safety from risky assets. Gold’s next moves will depend on how long this sell-off continues. Global stocks were under pressure, with European shares hitting 22-month lows on the back of a raft of factors including a U.S.-China trade dispute, rising tensions between Saudi Arabia and western powers, stalled Brexit negotiations and concerns over an economic slowdown in China. The International Monetary Fund said last week that risks to the global financial system, which have risen over the past six months, could increase sharply if pressures in emerging markets escalate or global trade relations worsen. On the technical front, gold broke above the 100-day moving average at around $1,227. A close above that could provide additional support. Other indicators, such as inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs), suggest chances of a further rebound in prices. Holdings of the largest gold-backed ETF, SPDR Gold, rose nearly 2 percent last week. That was its biggest weekly inflow since January, with the fund having registered declines of more than 4 million ounces since hitting a peak in late April. Gold, usually seen as a safe store of value during political and economic uncertainty, remains about 10 percent down from its April peak, with investors opting for the dollar as the U.S.-China trade war unfolded against a background of higher U.S. interest rates. Speculators meanwhile extended their net short position on Comex gold by 29,881 contracts to 103,009 contracts, CFTC data showed last week, based on the week up to Oct. 9.

 

 

 

 

Traditional Agricultures

Soybeans recovered after the most actively traded contract last week fell to its lowest price in nearly 10 years. Bargain buying and improving export demand helped lift soybean futures for a second consecutive session.

 

 

Futures Settlement Price Monday, October 15, 2018
Instrument Contract Open High Low Settlement Net Change
DJIA DJM18 25337 25468 25108 25196 -121
S & P 500 SPM18 2769.75 2778.5 2745.25 2748.75 -19.75
NASDAQ 100 NDM18 7176.5 7177.75 7060.25 7075.75 -97
Hang Seng HSH18 25538 25644 25326 25340 -346
Nikkei 225 NKH18 22535 22540 22165 22210 -445
FTSE 100 FTH18 6965.5 7015.5 6932 6992.5 8.5
Gold GCJ18 1224.7 1236.6 1223.9 1230.2 8.6
Silver SIK18 1466.5 1479 1461.5 1470.5 7.5
Copper HGK18 281.1 283.9 277.2 278 -2.1
Crude Oil CLK18 72.18 72.35 70.82 71.69 0.32
Wheat WK18 518.5 525 514.5 525 8.25
Soybeans SK18 868.75 891.5 863.25 891.25 24
Corn CK18 373 378.25 371.5 377.75 4.5

 

 

Daily Swings  (The Pivot Levels)
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2
DJM18 24687 24897 25047 25257 25407 25617 25767
SPM18 2703.25 2724.25 2736.50 2757.50 2769.75 2790.75 2803.00
NDM18 6913.92 6987.08 7031.42 7104.58 7148.92 7222.08 7266.42
HSH18 24911 25119 25229 25437 25547 25755 25865
NKH18 21695 21930 22070 22305 22445 22680 22820
FTH18 6861.00 6896.50 6944.50 6980.00 7028.00 7063.50 7111.50
GCJ18 1211.17 1217.53 1223.87 1230.23 1236.57 1242.93 1249.27
SIK18 1444.17 1452.83 1461.67 1470.33 1479.17 1487.83 1496.67
HGK18 268.80 273.00 275.50 279.70 282.20 286.40 288.90
CLK18 69.36 70.09 70.89 71.62 72.42 73.15 73.95
WK18 507.50 511.00 518.00 521.50 528.50 532.00 539.00
SK18 844.25 853.75 872.50 882.00 900.75 910.25 929.00
CK18 366.67 369.08 373.42 375.83 380.17 382.58 386.92

 

 Source: – News & Quotes (Courtesy:  Reuters)                                                                    

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

15 Окт 2018

 

Daily Market View

 Monday, October 15, 2018
          U.S Stock Market

 

DJIA S & P 500 NASDAQ
25317 2768.50 7172.75
+1.15% +1.42% +2.29%

U.S stocks rallied in an extremely choppy session, following a turbulent few days that saw concern over higher interest rates drive the S&P 500 down to levels not seen since early July and unsettle equity markets across the globe. It is clear that the US markets hold the key for the direction of indices over the next few weeks. The technology sector led the rally on following steep falls earlier in the week. Financials lagged behind the wider market, even after quarterly earnings from a number of investment banks exceeded expectations. One factor behind the equity sell-off this week, during which the S&P 500 registered its biggest one-day drop since February, was the recent rise in Treasury yields, which reflected optimism for the US economy and expectations that the Federal Reserve would continue raising interest rates. Market participants have become more confident that the US central bank will keep lifting borrowing costs at the current quarterly pace throughout next year. The currency markets were largely becalmed throughout the bout of equity volatility.

 

 

Major Economic Releases for Today
Period Event GMT Forecast Previous

aug

Japan Capacity Utilization (MoM) 04:30   -0.6%

aug

Japan Industrial Production (YoY) 04:30   0.6%

oct

Switzerland Total Sight Deposits 08:00    

sep

U.S Retail Sales Advance (MoM) 12:30 0.5% 0.1%

oct

U.S Empire Manufacturing 12:30   19

sep

U.S Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas 12:30   0.2%

sep

Canada Existing Home Sales (MoM) 13:00   0.9%

aug

U.S Business Inventories 14:00   0.6%

3Q

New Zealand Consumer Price Index (YoY) 21:45   1.5%
Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.15% on Friday. The best performers of the session on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were Visa Inc., which rose 4.73% or 6.33 points to trade at 140.06 at the close. Meanwhile, Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. added 3.67% or 2.60 points to end at 73.50 and Cisco Systems Inc. was up 3.60% or 1.59 points to 45.71 in late trade. The worst performers of the session were JPMorgan Chase & Co, which fell 1.09% or 1.18 points to trade at 106.95 at the close. The Travelers Companies Inc. declined 0.53% or 0.66 points to end at 123.65 and Chevron Corp was down 0.56% or 0.66 points to 117.77.

 

 

 

NASDAQ 100

The tech heavy NASDAQ index gained 2.29%. The top performers on the NASDAQ Composite were Corium International Inc. which rose 52.83% to 12.700, Auris Medical Holding AG which was up 44.12% to settle at 0.980 and Youngevity International Inc. which gained 40.74% to close at 13.300. The worst performers were Immune Design Corp which was down 33.69% to 1.85 in late trade, Intelli-pharmaceutics International Inc. which lost 21.00% to settle at 0.640 and Kelly Services B Inc. which was down 20.00% to 17.600 at the close.

 

 

Oil

Crude oil futures gained on Friday after falling by more than $2/b Thursday. Recent falls in the US dollar index stemming from a weaker global equities market helped crude prices stabilize, sources said. However, there were some bearish headlines. The International Energy Agency on Friday cut its estimates of global oil demand this year and next by 100,000 b/d each, while raising its estimate of this year’s growth in non-OPEC supply to 2.2 million b/d following what it called “relentless” growth in global production. In its latest monthly oil market report, the IEA cuts its estimates of global demand to 1.3 million b/d for this year and 1.4 million b/d next year, citing currency depreciations, trade disputes and a revision to its data on China. China’s crude oil imports edged up by a modest 0.5% year on year in September to 9.09 million b/d, but the rate of growth could rise in October as both state-run and independent refiners have lifted throughout to meet robust demand.

 

 

Precious and Base Metals

Gold prices eased on Friday, the session after their biggest daily gain in more than two years, coming under pressure as the U.S Dollar climbed and global stocks rebounded from a six-day rout. Spot gold was down 0.5 percent at $1,217.81 an ounce. On Thursday, bullion jumped about 2.5 percent on safe-haven buying during an equities selloff. Thursday’s peak of $1,226.27 was the highest since July 31. Spot gold was on track for its biggest weekly gain in seven weeks, up about 1.3 percent for the week. U.S gold futures settled down $5.6, or 0.46 percent, at $1,222. A rally in the U.S Dollar is putting downward pressure on gold on Friday. The dollar index rose as global equities rebounded from a multiday selloff, boosted by strong export data in China. Event-driven rallies usually don’t last long, a rebound in equities was one of the main factors weighing on gold. We need more (ammunition) for gold to move further as it has been very well abandoned with only a few central banks buying besides some retail buyers. Gold remains down about more than 10 percent from its April peak, pressured by a strong dollar as the U.S.-China trade war unfolds while the Federal Reserve has raised U.S. interest rates. The Fed hiked rates last month for the third time this year and is expected to raise them again in December. Gold is going to be dictated by the U.S. Federal Reserve. As long as interest rates continue to move higher, it’s going to continue to apply a lot of downward pressure on the precious complex. During Thursday’s surge, bullion broke above the narrow trading range of the past 1-1/2 months. Gold is trading fairly close to the 100-day moving average at $1,228. There should be plenty of resistance, but a close above that level could signal a move higher.

 

 

Traditional Agricultures

Wheat prices jumped on tightening global supplies. Soybean futures rose for a second straight session on Friday on short-covering and follow-through buying after a government report the prior day forecast a smaller-than-expected U.S harvest. Corn also advanced after the U.S Department of Agriculture (USDA) unexpectedly cut its U.S. corn yield outlook in a monthly report on Thursday and as traders braced for possible further cuts to the agency’s crop outlook.

 

 

Futures Settlement Price Friday, October 12, 2018
Instrument Contract Open High Low Settlement Net Change
DJIA DJM18 25210 25542 24991 25317 127
S & P 500 SPM18 2748.25 2784.75 2732.25 2768.5 22
NASDAQ 100 NDM18 7040.25 7197 7034 7172.75 140.75
Hang Seng HSH18 25440 25783 25258 25686 502
Nikkei 225 NKH18 22635 22710 22410 22655 35
FTSE 100 FTH18 7018.5 7046 6925.5 6984 48
Gold GCJ18 1226.6 1227.2 1219.1 1221.6 -5.8
Silver SIK18 1459.5 1471 1453 1463 3.5
Copper HGK18 277.5 283.25 277.4 280.1 2.5
Crude Oil CLK18 70.95 71.97 70.61 71.37 0.41
Wheat WK18 508 518.5 508 516.75 9.25
Soybeans SK18 859.75 867.75 858 867.25 9.25
Corn CK18 368.5 373.5 368.25 373.25 4.5

 

 

Daily Swings  (The Pivot Levels)
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2
DJM18 24474 24732 25025 25283 25576 25834 26127
SPM18 2686.42 2709.33 2738.92 2761.83 2791.42 2814.33 2843.92
NDM18 6909.17 6971.58 7072.17 7134.58 7235.17 7297.58 7398.17
HSH18 24843 25051 25368 25576 25893 26101 26418
NKH18 22173 22292 22473 22592 22773 22892 23073
FTH18 6803.83 6864.67 6924.33 6985.17 7044.83 7105.67 7165.33
GCJ18 1209.97 1214.53 1218.07 1222.63 1226.17 1230.73 1234.27
SIK18 1435.67 1444.33 1453.67 1462.33 1471.67 1480.33 1489.67
HGK18 271.40 274.40 277.25 280.25 283.10 286.10 288.95
CLK18 69.30 69.96 70.66 71.32 72.02 72.68 73.38
WK18 499.83 503.92 510.33 514.42 520.83 524.92 531.33
SK18 851.17 854.58 860.92 864.33 870.67 874.08 880.42
CK18 364.58 366.42 369.83 371.67 375.08 376.92 380.33

 

 

 

 Source: – News & Quotes (Courtesy:  Reuters)                                                                    

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

 

 

 

 

15 Окт 2018

FOREX Newsletter

October 15, 2018

 

Pulse of the Market

·      In 2 trading days, the Dow Jones lost more than 1,300 points and the S&P500 fell over 5%

·      The real test for the Dollar comes this week when retail sales and the FOMC minutes are scheduled

·      The Euro found a bottom this past week but it is too soon to declare victory for the bulls

·      Last week’s softer GDP and trade balance report had very little impact on the British Pound

The U.S Dollar fell because investors are looking at the decline in stocks as a U.S Dollar story. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 75bp this year and is expected to tighten again in December. For next year, the market is starting to price in 3 rounds of tightening as even the dovish of doves (Fed President Evans) feel that the central bank needs to take rates 50bp above neutral. No one including the Fed really knows what the neutral rate is but earlier this month Fed Chair Powell said we are a “long way from neutral” which suggests that it is at least 3% so 50bp above neutral would mean 3.5%. While getting to this rate will take some time, investors are worried that these rate hikes will create an economic crisis. We know that rising rates is a big problem for the housing market but trade wars combined with higher interest rates makes businesses and investors more conservative which could lead to lasting weakness in U.S equities. The past 2 years have been great for U.S stocks and the recent decline gives investors a good reason to lighten up on their positions. For all of these reasons, buyers may not return as quickly because U.S interest rates were 75bp lower in February and Brexit was viewed as the UK’s problem. However, the meltdown in equities shouldn’t change the course for currencies because a contraction in the U.S economy is bad for all countries. If the sell-off in stocks is rooted in the prospect of higher U.S interest rates, then rising yields in U.S. should keep the dollar attractive. The Fed should still be the most aggressive central bank next year and for now, the signs of weakness in the U.S economy have been minimal. Inflation and consumer confidence surprised to the downside last week but price pressures are strong according to the Fed. The real test for the Dollar comes this week when retail sales and the FOMC minutes are scheduled for release. The primary focus for sterling is Brexit and data is only a distraction. This week’s softer GDP and trade balance report had very little impact on the currency. Instead GBP rallied at the start of the week after the EU’s Chief Brexit negotiator Barnier said they could have a deal next week and fell at the end on reports that Prime Minister won’t agree to be trapped in a customs union. The clock is ticking and a deal is drawing close but having been burned by false hopes, investors are ignoring the conflicting headlines and waiting for official confirmation. When a deal is announced, GBP will soar but until that happens investors are skeptical. Employment, inflation and retail sales data are scheduled for release this week.

 

Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
04:30 Japan Industrial Production (YoY) (AUG) Medium     0.6%
08:00 Switzerland Total Sight Deposits CHF (OCT 12) Low      
12:30 U.S Retail Sales Advance (MoM) (SEP) High   0.5% 0.1%
12:30 U.S Empire Manufacturing (OCT) Low     19
12:30 U.S Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas (SEP) Medium     0.2%
12:30 U.S Retail Sales Control Group (SEP) Medium     0.1%
13:00 Canada Existing Home Sales (MoM) (SEP) Medium     0.9%
14:00 U.S Business Inventories (AUG) Medium     0.6%
21:45 New Zealand Consumer Price Index (YoY) (3Q) High     1.5%

 

Euro

The single currency weathered the worst of the acute breakdown in risk appetite last week, even as concerns about Italy linger. The economic calendar remains mostly barren, and the current environment in financial markets means that minor data releases will most likely be overlooked. The Euro finished in the middle of the pack last week. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1533 and a high of 1.1609 before closing the day around 1.1557 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen was the best performing major currency last week as global equity markets were slammed. The Japanese Yen was one of the beneficiaries during the global equity market selloff last week, posting gains against every major currency en route to its best week of the year since mid-February. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 111.86 and a high of 112.47 before closing the day around 112.17 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound ended lower after lack of a concrete breakthrough in Brexit negotiations. The pound may surge toward a five-month high if the U.K and the European Union agree on a divorce deal this week. The summit is seen as a key moment for the negotiations, with May set to have dinner with her European counterparts on Wednesday. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.3144 and a high of 1.3256 before closing the day at 1.3151 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar was little changed against a broadly stronger greenback as oil and stock prices rebounded, but the loonie lost ground for the week as investors worried about threats to the global growth outlook. For the week, the loonie was down 0.7 percent as investors worried that higher bond yields and trade conflicts could hurt global economic growth. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.3000 and a high of 1.3050 before closing the day at 1.3028 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar failed to make new lows despite gloomy news flow. All of the factors that have weighed on it over the past year remained very much in place. Some of them even intensified. The huge differential in monetary policy between a still-tightening Federal Reserve and a Reserve Bank of Australia stuck in post-crisis accommodation mode was as obvious as ever.  Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7100 and a high of 0.7137 before closing the day at 0.7111 in the New York session.

 

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading below 14 and above 50, 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is also issuing a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 42 and lies below the neutral zone. In general, the pair has lost 0.27%.

 

 Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading below 14 and above 50, 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish tone and MACD is also indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 51 reading and lies above the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.60%.

  

Aussie-Yen

 

Currently, the cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is also indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 40 reading and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.11%.

 

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bullish tone and MACD is issuing a bearish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 38 and lies below the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has gained 0.31%.

 

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish stance and MACD is indicating a bullish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 66 and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.35%.

 

Appendix

  

FOREX Closing Prices for October 12, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.15867 1.1609 1.1533 1.15571 -0.0035
USD/JPY 112.108 112.478 111.861 112.171 0.0240
GBP/USD 1.32281 1.3256 1.31446 1.31515 -0.0082
USD/CHF 0.98941 0.99284 0.98802 0.99172 0.0025
USD/CAD 1.30292 1.305 1.30003 1.30283 -0.0002
EUR/JPY 129.897 130.477 129.334 129.656 -0.3560
GBP/JPY 148.338 148.981 147.138 147.54 -0.8840
CHF/JPY 113.244 113.648 112.883 113.077 -0.2530
AUD/JPY 79.807 80.131 79.467 79.773 -0.0900
EUR/GBP 0.87574 0.87929 0.87435 0.87857 0.0027
EUR/CHF 1.14688 1.14899 1.14468 1.14627 -0.0006
GBP/CHF 1.3097 1.31132 1.30217 1.30444 -0.0046

 

  

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1448 1.1490 1.1524 1.1566 1.1600 1.1642 1.1676
USD/JPY 111.25 111.55 111.86 112.17 112.48 112.79 113.10
GBP/USD 1.3001 1.3073 1.3112 1.3184 1.3223 1.3295 1.3335
USD/CHF 0.9841 0.9860 0.9889 0.9909 0.9937 0.9957 0.9985
USD/CAD 1.2953 1.2977 1.3002 1.3026 1.3052 1.3076 1.3102
EUR/JPY 128.02 128.68 129.17 129.82 130.31 130.97 131.45
GBP/JPY 144.95 146.04 146.79 147.89 148.63 149.73 150.48
CHF/JPY 111.99 112.44 112.76 113.20 113.52 113.97 114.29
AUD/JPY 78.79 79.13 79.45 79.79 80.11 80.45 80.78
EUR/GBP 0.8706 0.8725 0.8755 0.8774 0.8805 0.8823 0.8854
EUR/CHF 1.1400 1.1423 1.1443 1.1466 1.1486 1.1510 1.1529
GBP/CHF 1.2915 1.2968 1.3006 1.3060 1.3098 1.3151 1.3189

 

 

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

 

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

12 Окт 2018

Daily Market View

Daily Market View

Friday, October 12, 2018
          U.S Stock Market

 

DJIA S & P 500 NASDAQ
25190 2746.50 7032.00
-2.13% -2.06% -1.25%

U.S stocks extended declines yesterday, with the Dow briefly approaching a 700-point slide, as investors continue to test the resiliency of risk markets amid the biggest global sell-off since February. The CBOE’s key risk indicator, known by its trading symbol, jumped to a February high of 28.8 points as the Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled more than 545 points in the final hours of the trading session, taking its two-day decline past 1,300 points. The S&P 500 was also pulled lower in the downdraft, falling 57.31 points, or 2.14%, taking the broadest measure of U.S stock prices below its 200-day moving average, a key measure that investors use to gauge market direction. The NASDAQ was more than 93 points down to slide into what is known as correction territory, a condition traders use to describe market that has fallen more than 10% from a recent peak. Energy stocks were the leading declines after a bigger-than-expected rise in crude inventories, which is extending declines for global crude prices amid persistent concerns over the health of the world economy.

 

Major Economic Releases for Today
Period Event GMT Forecast Previous

aug

Australia Home Loans (MoM) 00:30 -1.0% 0.4%

aug

Australia Value of Loans (MoM) 00:30   1.3%

aug

Japan Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) 04:30 0.3% 0.1%

sep

German Consumer Price Index (YoY) 06:00 2.3% 2.3%

aug

Euro-Zone Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY) 09:00 -0.3% -0.1%

sep

Canada Teranet/National Bank HPI (YoY) 12:30   1.4%

sep

U.S Import Price Index ex Petroleum (MoM) 12:30 -0.1% -0.2%

sep

U.S Import Price Index (YoY) 12:30 3.1% 3.7%

sep

U.S Export Price Index (YoY) 12:30   3.6%
Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 2.13% to hit a new 1-month low yesterday. The best performers of the session on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were Microsoft Corporation, which fell 0.24% or 0.25 points to trade at 105.91 at the close. Meanwhile, Dow DuPont Inc. fell 0.57% or 0.34 points to end at 58.98 and Nike Inc. was down 0.57% or 0.43 points to 74.51 in late trade. The worst performers of the session were Pfizer Inc., which fell 3.82% or 1.70 points to trade at 42.81 at the close. Exxon Mobil Corp declined 3.45% or 2.92 points to end at 81.60 and Chevron Corp was down 3.40% or 4.17 points to 118.43.

 

 

 

NASDAQ 100

The tech heavy NASDAQ index lost 1.25%. The top performers on the NASDAQ Composite were Avenue Therapeutics Inc. which rose 60.48% to 3.37, Auris Medical Holding AG which was up 36.00% to settle at 0.680 and Mercantil Bank Holding Corp Class B which gained 21.57% to close at 7.44. The worst performers were China Internet Nationwide Financial Services Inc. which was down 44.28% to 3.02 in late trade, Sears Holdings Corporation which lost 29.70% to settle at 0.34 and MagneGas Corp which was down 27.20% to 0.266 at the close.

 

Oil

Oil prices slumped to more than two-week lows yesterday as global stock markets fell, with investor sentiment made more bearish by a bigger-than-expected U.S crude inventories build. Crude inventories climbed by 6 million barrels in the week to Oct. 5, the U.S Energy Information Administration reported, compared with analyst expectations for an increase of 2.6 million barrels. U.S light crude ended yesterday’s session down $2.20, or 3 percent, to $70.97. The contract lost 2.4 percent in the previous session. U.S crude inventories rose 6 million barrels last week, the EIA said, more than double analysts’ expectations of a 2.6 million-barrels increase. The stockpiles rose for the third consecutive week as refineries continued to reduce production for seasonal maintenance. Refinery crude runs fell by 352,000 barrels per day as utilization rates dropped 1.6 percentage points, the EIA data showed.

 

Precious and Base Metals

Gold rose more than 1 percent to near three-week highs yesterday, climbing above $1,200 per ounce as sliding global stock markets prompted risk-wary investors to seek out the metal, with a weaker dollar also supporting prices. Spot gold gained 1.3 percent to $1,209.30 an ounce, having hit its highest since Sept. 21, at $1,210.34. U.S gold futures added 1.4 percent to $1,210 an ounce. European stocks fell in line with a slump on Wall Street, pointing to growing risk aversion across global markets. Gold is finding a bit of support from the global sell-off seen in equities. If this sell-off persists, we will start seeing more of a move to gold as a safe-haven asset. Rising U.S. yields and general strength in the dollar have meant that investors have largely ignored gold. But people are seeing fairly good value at current levels on the back of some macro concerns. Wednesday’s dive on Wall Street prompted U.S President Donald Trump to lash out against the U.S Federal Reserve for raising interest rates. The Fed increased rates last month for the third time this year and is widely expected to hike again in December. Gold has fallen more than 12 percent since hitting a peak in April, with investors increasingly switching to the safety of the greenback as the U.S.-China trade war unfolded against a backdrop of rising U.S. interest rates. But prices have managed to stay above a 1-1/2-year low of $1,059.96 hit mid-August, propped up by limited safe-haven buying at lower levels linked to concerns over economic growth and inflationary pressure from soaring oil prices. The weakness in the dollar and to some extent the fear in the equity carnage have spooked the shorts. Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, rose 1.21 percent to 738.99 tonnes on Wednesday, the first gain in holdings since July and the biggest inflow since March. Spot silver rose 1.4 percent to $14.43 an ounce.

 

 

 

Traditional Agricultures

Soybean futures fell for a third consecutive session yesterday as ample global supplies and concerns that a Sino-U.S. trade war could escalate kept prices near their lowest since the start of the month. Corn futures gained in yesterday’s session, while wheat fell for a second session.

 

 

Futures Settlement Price Thursday, October 11, 2018
Instrument Contract Open High Low Settlement Net Change
DJIA DJM18 25458 25677 24891 25190 -320
S & P 500 SPM18 2776.25 2798.5 2712.25 2746.5 -34.25
NASDAQ 100 NDM18 7010.5 7137.25 6907.54 7032 2
Hang Seng HSH18 25367 25455 25119 25184 -975
Nikkei 225 NKH18 22635 22635 22410 22510 -110
FTSE 100 FTH18 7013 7050 6894.5 6936 -129.5
Gold GCJ18 1197.5 1229.7 1194.4 1227.4 29.5
Silver SIK18 1432 1463.5 1426.5 1459.5 29
Copper HGK18 274.85 281.6 271.25 277.6 2.8
Crude Oil CLK18 72.65 72.72 70.47 70.96 -1.65
Wheat WK18 509.75 520.5 506.25 507.5 -2.75
Soybeans SK18 852 863.5 846.75 858 5.5
Corn CK18 361.5 372.5 359.75 368.75 6.5

 

Daily Swings  (The Pivot Levels)
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
DJM18 24042 24467 24828 25253 25614 26039 26400
SPM18 2620.08 2666.17 2706.33 2752.42 2792.58 2838.67 2878.83
NDM18 6684.23 6795.89 6913.94 7025.60 7143.65 7255.31 7373.36
HSH18 24714 24917 25050 25253 25386 25589 25722
NKH18 22177 22293 22402 22518 22627 22743 22852
FTH18 6714.83 6804.67 6870.33 6960.17 7025.83 7115.67 7181.33
GCJ18 1169.33 1181.87 1204.63 1217.17 1239.93 1252.47 1275.23
SIK18 1399.17 1412.83 1436.17 1449.83 1473.17 1486.83 1510.17
HGK18 261.68 266.47 272.03 276.82 282.38 287.17 292.73
CLK18 67.80 69.13 70.05 71.38 72.30 73.63 74.55
WK18 488.08 497.17 502.33 511.42 516.58 525.67 530.83
SK18 831.92 839.33 848.67 856.08 865.42 872.83 882.17
CK18 348.75 354.25 361.50 367.00 374.25 379.75 387.00

 

 Source: – News & Quotes (Courtesy:  Reuters)                                                                    

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

 

 

 

 

12 Окт 2018

FOREX Newsletter

FOREX Newsletter

October 12, 2018

 

Pulse of the Market

·      The Labor Department said yesterday that U.S consumer price index rose 0.1% last month

·      The rout in global markets did little to lift demand for the safe-haven yen against the greenback

·      The Italian Senate approved the motion to push back the balanced budget from 2020 to beyond 2021

·      Pound gained as traders awaited a possible breakthrough in Brexit-deal negotiations

 

The U.S Dollar slumped against its rivals yesterday after data showed U.S inflation undershot economists’ expectations. The U.S dollar index, which measures the greenback against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, fell by 0.42% to 94.82. The Labor Department said on Thursday its consumer price index rose 0.1% last month, and 2.3% for the year through September, missing economists’ forecasts for a 2.4% rise. Inflation continues to underwhelm the Fed, but is unlikely to deter the pace of gradual rate hikes ahead. The greenback was also kept in check by a stronger euro, though analysts warned the single currency has limited room for upside amid contagion risks from Italy. The Italian Senate approved the motion to push back the balanced budget from 2020 to beyond 2021 after it introduced a higher-than-expected budget deficit target at 2.4%, raising the risk of backlash from Brussels. Some fear that a rift between Italy and bloc could see the country exit the European Union, but there’s little risk of an Italy. The Euro and British Pound extended yesterday’s advance as regional investors took their turn to react to firming hopes for an imminent Brexit deal. The anti-risk Japanese Yen remained well-supported as APAC bourses sank, picking up on a dismal lead from Wall Street. Meanwhile, commodity bloc currencies cautiously retraced earlier losses. The Yen as well as the Swiss Franc – a frequent beneficiary of regional haven demand – appear well-positioned to benefit. The Canadian Dollar appeared to stabilize yesterday amid a rout in financial markets that has forced the U.S greenback onto its back foot, although analysts at Scotiabank are saying the outlook for the Loonie has deteriorated of late. Scotiabank’s call comes on a day when the greenback is in retreat following a rout in bond prices that spooked stock markets across the globe, leading the carnage to spill over into currency markets. This has provided breathing space to the Loonie by stemming an earlier decline that had seen the USD/CAD rate cross over a key technical level, which some saw as likely to encourage further losses.  The Australian dollar traded sharply higher against all major currencies yesterday, almost reversing all the losses made on Wednesday. Despite the ongoing turmoil across global equity markets, the Australian dollar rebounded yesterday. Given Australia’s significant trading relationship with China, the aussie typically trades in line with developments in Chinese financial markets. For now, the currency is rallying despite significant weakness in most Chinese markets.

 

Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
00:30 Australia Home Loans (MoM) (AUG) Medium   -1.0% 0.4%
04:30 Japan Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) (AUG) Medium   0.3% 0.1%
06:00 German Consumer Price Index (YoY) (SEP) Medium   2.3% 2.3%
09:00 Euro-Zone Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY) (AUG) Medium   -0.3% -0.1%
12:30 Canada Teranet/National Bank HPI (YoY) (SEP) Low     1.4%
12:30 U.S Import Price Index ex Petroleum (MoM) (SEP) Medium   -0.1% -0.2%
12:30 U.S Import Price Index (YoY) (SEP) Low   3.1% 3.7%
12:30 U.S Export Price Index (YoY) (SEP) Medium     3.6%

 

Euro

The single currency rose sharply yesterday as the U.S Dollar continues to fall as U.S bond yields hovered at multiyear peaks. The bounce in the Euro offset the effects of an increase in U.S Treasury yields, putting pressure on the dollar. U.S. yields have increased on rising government debt supply and worries about higher inflation. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1519 and a high of 1.1598 before closing the day around 1.1591 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen pair fell to a near two-week low yesterday. The US dollar, usually seen as a safe haven in turbulent times, surprised some currency strategists on Thursday by losing ground after spooked investors drove US stocks to their worst fall in nearly eight months. The yen continues to show its colors as the markets favorite risk haven proxy. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 111.81 and a high of 112.51 before closing the day around 112.14 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound hovered near multi-day highs against the Dollar and multi-week highs against the Euro as markets continue to price in the prospect of a Brexit Withdrawal Agreement being agreed in coming days. The U.K and the E.U could agree the terms of their Brexit divorce by as early as Monday reports the Dow Jones newswire. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.3180 and a high of 1.3246 before closing the day at 1.3233 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar rose against its broadly weaker U.S counterpart, recovering from an earlier 12-day low as data showing a slowdown in U.S. inflation weighed on the yields of U.S government bonds. Treasury yields extended their fall as the inflation data dented expectations of a more aggressive pace in raising interest rates by the U.S. Federal Reserve. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.3012 and a high of 1.3069 before closing the day at 1.3030 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar traded higher against all major currencies yesterday. On Wednesday, the Australian dollar fell sharply against the US dollar. Notably, the currency found buyers at the bottom-end of its trading range. While trading volumes in Australian dollar futures accelerated relative to the previous session, the pair failed to make a new low. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7044 and a high of 0.7127 before closing the day at 0.7409 in the New York session.

 

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading below 14 and above 50, 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is also issuing a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 44 and lies below the neutral zone. In general, the pair has gained 0.55%.

 

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish tone and MACD is also indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 57 reading and lies above the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has gained 0.25%.

 

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is also indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 40 reading and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.90%.

 

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bearish tone and MACD is also issuing a bearish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 32 and lies below the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has gained 0.32%.

  

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading above 14, 50 and below 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bullish stance and MACD is also indicating a bullish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 71 and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.24%.

 

Appendix

  

FOREX Closing Prices for October 10, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.15228 1.1598 1.15192 1.15918 0.0074
USD/JPY 112.249 112.515 111.812 112.147 -0.1090
GBP/USD 1.31952 1.3246 1.31802 1.32335 0.0045
USD/CHF 0.98986 0.99206 0.98549 0.98926 -0.0008
USD/CAD 1.30558 1.30694 1.30128 1.30307 -0.0034
EUR/JPY 129.341 130.191 129.187 130.012 0.7130
GBP/JPY 148.119 148.756 147.791 148.424 0.3650
CHF/JPY 113.369 113.816 113.044 113.33 -0.0210
AUD/JPY 79.102 80.12 79.015 79.863 0.7140
EUR/GBP 0.87281 0.87715 0.87268 0.87585 0.0028
EUR/CHF 1.14063 1.14869 1.13895 1.14682 0.0064
GBP/CHF 1.30619 1.31021 1.3028 1.30903 0.0031

 

 

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1463 1.1491 1.1541 1.1570 1.1620 1.1648 1.1699
USD/JPY 111.10 111.46 111.80 112.16 112.50 112.86 113.21
GBP/USD 1.3128 1.3154 1.3194 1.3220 1.3260 1.3286 1.3325
USD/CHF 0.9792 0.9824 0.9858 0.9889 0.9924 0.9955 0.9990
USD/CAD 1.2949 1.2981 1.3006 1.3038 1.3062 1.3094 1.3119
EUR/JPY 128.40 128.79 129.40 129.80 130.41 130.80 131.41
GBP/JPY 146.93 147.36 147.89 148.32 148.86 149.29 149.82
CHF/JPY 112.21 112.62 112.98 113.40 113.75 114.17 114.52
AUD/JPY 78.11 78.56 79.21 79.67 80.32 80.77 81.42
EUR/GBP 0.8688 0.8708 0.8733 0.8752 0.8778 0.8797 0.8822
EUR/CHF 1.1312 1.1351 1.1410 1.1448 1.1507 1.1546 1.1604
GBP/CHF 1.2971 1.2999 1.3045 1.3073 1.3119 1.3148 1.3193

 

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

11 Окт 2018

Daily Market View

Daily Market View

Thursday, October 11, 2018
          U.S Stock Market

 

DJIA S & P 500 NASDAQ
25510 2780.75 7030.00
-0.15% -0.09% +0.08%

U.S stock indexes dropped sharply yesterday, and the S&P 500 was on pace for its worst day since June, as interest rates resumed their climb. Treasury yields have jumped over the last week, which has weighed on stocks around the world, and the 10-year yield once again touched its highest level in seven years yesterday. The rise in rates is weighing particularly heavily on areas of the market that had earlier been the biggest winners, and technology stocks had some of the morning’s steepest losses. The S&P 500 was down 1.4 percent. It’s on pace for its fifth straight decline and is close to its lowest level in two months. The Dow Jones industrial average lost 363, or 1.4 percent and the NASDAQ dropped 165, or 2.1 percent. Tech stocks and companies that sell non-essentials to consumers have been some of the top performers over the last year, nearly doubling the performance of the S&P 500. They’ve also dropped more than the rest of the market so far this month. Tech stocks in the S&P 500 fell 2.7 percent for the steepest loss among the 11 sectors that make up the index.

 

Major Economic Releases for Today
Period Event GMT Forecast Previous

 

Bank of England Credit Conditions & Bank Liabilities Surveys 08:30

aug

Canada New Housing Price Index (YoY) 12:30 0.5% 0.5%

sep

U.S Consumer Price Index (YoY) 12:30 2.4% 2.7%

sep

U.S Consumer Price Index Ex Food and Energy (YoY) 12:30 2.3% 2.2%

sep

U.S Real Avg Weekly Earnings (YoY) 12:30 0.5%

sep

U.S Real Avg Hourly Earning (YoY) 12:30 0.2%

oct

U.S Initial Jobless Claims 12:30 210k 207k

sep

U.S Continuing Claims 12:30 1650k

oct

DOE U.S Crude Oil Inventories 15:00 7975k
Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 3.15% to hit a new 1-month low. The best performers of the session on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were McDonald’s Corporation, which fell 0.86% or 1.46 points to trade at 168.37 at the close. Meanwhile, Procter & Gamble Company fell 0.92% or 0.76 points to end at 81.44 and Home Depot Inc. was down 1.05% or 2.05 points to 193.70 in late trade. The worst performers of the session were Nike Inc., which fell 6.81% or 5.48 points to trade at 74.94 at the close. Microsoft Corporation declined 5.43% or 6.10 points to end at 106.16 and Visa Inc. was down 4.77% or 6.79 points to 135.52.

 

 

NASDAQ 100

The NASDAQ index declined 4.08%. The top performers on the NASDAQ were AcelRx Pharmaceuticals Inc. which rose 35.66% to 3.595, Easterly Acquisition Corp which was up 30.67% to settle at 13.59 and Imperva Inc. which gained 27.98% to close at 55.11. The worst performers were One Horizon Group Inc. which was down 35.90% to 0.2500 in late trade, Arbutus Biopharma Corp which lost 23.83% to settle at 4.570 and Intellipharmaceutics International Inc. which was down 21.80% to 1.040 at the close.

 

 

Oil

Oil prices fell yesterday after the IMF lowered its global economic growth forecasts, raising concerns that demand for oil products may slump as well. U.S crude was down by $1.18, or 1.6 percent, at $73.78 a barrel, after rising nearly 1 percent in the previous session. The International Monetary Fund downgraded its global economic growth forecasts for 2018 and 2019 on Tuesday. Trade wars and rising import tariffs have been taking a toll on commerce while emerging markets struggle with tighter financial conditions and capital outflows, the IMF said. But supply concerns are keeping the market on edge. In the United States, nearly 40 percent of daily crude oil production was lost from offshore U.S Gulf of Mexico wells on Tuesday because of platform evacuations and shut-ins ahead of Hurricane Michael. Michael has strengthened into an “extremely dangerous” Category 4 hurricane, according to the latest advisory from the U.S. National Hurricane Center.

 

 

Precious and Base Metals

Gold prices eased yesterday as U.S Treasury yields surged, with further bearish influence from a hawkish outlook for interest rates. Spot gold fell 0.2 percent to $1,187.41 per ounce. U.S gold futures were steady at $1,191.20 an ounce. U.S Treasury yields advanced, holding near multi-year highs after government data showed the U.S producer prices index (PPI) climbed in September, suggesting interest rates would be hiked at a faster pace to tame inflation. The higher yield environment and stronger dollar are providing a toxic mix for gold. The trend for yields has been bullish and they could rise further from here. It will be hard for gold to sustain any rallies in this environment. Higher Treasury yields can translate into more demand for the dollar since the currency is used to buy bonds, a traditional safe haven. This tends to dent the appeal of gold as a safe store of value and makes bullion more expensive for holders of other currencies, eroding demand. Gold has fallen over 13 percent since hitting a peak in April, with investors increasingly opting for the safety of the greenback as the U.S.-China trade war unfolded against a backdrop of rising U.S interest rates. Gold prices may struggle to rebound over the remainder of 2018. Strong U.S economic growth, concurrent monetary policy normalization by the U.S Federal Reserve and a strong dollar will all limit the attractiveness of holding gold as an investment. The Fed increased interest rates last month for the third time this year and is widely expected to hike again in December, with no suggestion its tightening policy will cease any time soon. Gold has held in a $34 range for the last 1-1/2 months, propped up by limited safe-haven buying at the lower end of the range, spurred by concerns over economic growth and inflationary pressure from soaring oil prices. Analysts said the upside could be limited by waning demand due to depreciating domestic currencies in major gold-consuming countries such as India. Spot silver fell 0.7 percent to $14.29.

 

 

 

 

Traditional Agricultures

Wheat ticked higher as fears of flooding in the U.S Plains after heavy rains supported the market although strong exports from Russia, the world’s biggest supplier, limited gains.

 

 

Futures Settlement Price Wednesday, October 10, 2018
Instrument Contract Open High Low Settlement Net Change
DJIA DJM18 26466 26519 25503 25510 -965
S & P 500 SPM18 2886.75 2891.25 2779.75 2780.75 -107
NASDAQ 100 NDM18 7394.5 7411.5 7027.25 7030 -367.25
Hang Seng HSH18 26176 26465 26109 26159 103
Nikkei 225 NKH18 23545 23590 23365 23550 70
FTSE 100 FTH18 7198.5 7208 7059 7065.5 -131
Gold GCJ18 1192.7 1198.1 1188.3 1197.9 5
Silver SIK18 1440.5 1444.5 1424.5 1430.5 -9
Copper HGK18 281.3 281.95 274.2 274.8 -6.45
Crude Oil CLK18 74.62 75.05 72.35 72.61 -2.02
Wheat WK18 516 517.5 510 510.25 -4.5
Soybeans SK18 862 864.25 847 852.5 -10
Corn CK18 364 365 361.75 362.25 -1.75

 

Daily Swings  (The Pivot Levels)
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
DJM18 24153 24828 25169 25844 26185 26860 27201
SPM18 2631.75 2705.75 2743.25 2817.25 2854.75 2928.75 2966.25
NDM18 6516.75 6772.00 6901.00 7156.25 7285.25 7540.50 7669.50
HSH18 25668 25888 26024 26244 26380 26600 26736
NKH18 23188 23277 23413 23502 23638 23727 23863
FTH18 6864.67 6961.83 7013.67 7110.83 7162.67 7259.83 7311.67
GCJ18 1181.63 1184.97 1191.43 1194.77 1201.23 1204.57 1211.03
SIK18 1401.83 1413.17 1421.83 1433.17 1441.83 1453.17 1461.83
HGK18 264.27 269.23 272.02 276.98 279.77 284.73 287.52
CLK18 68.92 70.64 71.62 73.34 74.32 76.04 77.02
WK18 500.17 505.08 507.67 512.58 515.17 520.08 522.67
SK18 827.67 837.33 844.92 854.58 862.17 871.83 879.42
CK18 357.75 359.75 361.00 363.00 364.25 366.25 367.50

 

 

 Source: – News & Quotes (Courtesy:  Reuters)                                                                    

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

 

 

11 Окт 2018

FOREX Newsletter

FOREX Newsletter

October 11, 2018

 

Pulse of the Market

·      A recent increase in bond yields has been driven this week by positive data

·      the euro was higher due to the fall in the greenback, recovering from a selloff

·      The pound was higher, amid reports that 80% of the treaty between the UK and the EU is done

·      The Canadian Dollar weakened to a 10-day low against its U.S. counterpart

The U.S Dollar was lower yesterday, amid fears that the Federal Reserve will increase interest rates higher than expected. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of six major currencies, slumped 0.21% to 95.16. A recent increase in bond yields has been driven this week by positive data that showed the Fed will increase rates in December and beyond. The yield on the benchmark United States 10-year note rose to 3.214% after reaching a seven-year high of 3.261% the day before, while the United States 30-Year Treasury bond was at 3.384%, not far from a four-year peak of 3.44%. Meanwhile, the euro was higher due to the fall in the greenback, recovering from a selloff as Italy’s populist government and the European Commission went head-to-head over the country’s budget. Brussels and Rome have been at odds over the country’s budget deficit plans for the next three years, which breach EC rules on running excessive deficits and high debt. The pound was higher, amid reports that 80% of the treaty between the UK and the European Union is done. GBP/USD rose 0.41% to 1.3197. The dollar slid lower against the yen, with USD/JPY down 0.26% to 112.66. In times of uncertainty, investors tend to invest in the Japanese yen, which is considered a safe asset during periods of risk aversion. The Canadian dollar weakened on Wednesday to a 10-day low against its U.S. counterpart, underperforming other G10 currencies, as the price of oil, one of Canada’s major exports, slumped. The loonie touched its weakest since Sept. 28 at 1.3046. U.S. crude oil futures settled 2.4 per cent lower as U.S. equity markets broadly fell, even though energy traders worried about shrinking supply from Iran due to U.S. sanctions and also kept an eye on Hurricane Michael, which closed nearly 40 per cent of U.S. Gulf of Mexico oil output. The modest rebound in the Australian dollar came to a shuddering halt yesterday, falling heavily as global investor risk sentiment took a turn for the worst. After drifting to as high as .7130 in Asian trade on the back a modest improvement in investor sentiment, the AUD/USD began to fall in European trade with losses accelerating as North American markets opened. More firm US economic data, and hawkish commentary from US Fed officials kept US bond yields at or near multi-year highs, adding to concern that the current pace of Fed tightening was likely to continue in the period ahead.

 

Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
00:00 Australia Consumer Inflation Expectation (OCT) Medium     4.0%
08:30 Bank of England Credit Conditions & Bank Liabilities Surveys High      
12:30 Canada New Housing Price Index (YoY) (AUG) Medium   0.5% 0.5%
12:30 U.S Consumer Price Index (YoY) (SEP) High   2.4% 2.7%
12:30 U.S Consumer Price Index Ex Food and Energy (YoY) (SEP) High   2.3% 2.2%
12:30 U.S Real Avg. Weekly Earnings (YoY) (SEP) Medium     0.5%
12:30 U.S Real Avg. Hourly Earning (YoY) (SEP) Medium     0.2%
12:30 U.S Initial Jobless Claims (OCT 6) Medium   210k 207k
12:30 U.S Continuing Claims (SEP 29) Medium     1650k
15:00 DOE U.S Crude Oil Inventories (OCT 5) Medium     7975k

 

Euro

The single currency gained yesterday, moving away from seven-week lows after a fall in U.S Treasury yields took some steam out of the U.S Dollar’s recent run. The rally in the U.S Dollar was paused yesterday in European trading session, although analysts said it was likely to prove a temporary reprieve for the euro.  Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1478 and a high of 1.1544 before closing the day around 1.1518 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen pair was back under pressure, with the exchange rate slipping to a fresh monthly-low of 112.76. USD/JPY struggles to hold its ground despite the limited reaction to the U.S Producer Price Index (PPI), which showed the headline reading slipping to 2.6% from 2.8% per annum in August but the broader outlook for dollar-yen remains supportive. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 112.23 and a high of 113.26 before closing the day around 112.25 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound continued its decent rally started on Tuesday despite data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), the UK economy displayed no signs of growth in August, missing expectations of a modest 0.1 per cent expansion. The report revealed Britain’s builders were hit particularly hard. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.3134 and a high of 1.3213 before closing the day at 1.3188 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar edged lower against its U.S counterpart as oil prices fell and U.S Treasury yields climbed toward multi-year peaks. Investors were worried that higher bond yields and trade conflicts could hurt global economic growth. On Tuesday, the IMF cut its world gross domestic product forecasts for the first time in two years. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.2924 and a high of 1.3066 before closing the day at 1.3065 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar struggles to benefit from improved consumer confidence. A modest rebound in October’s Westpac consumer confidence index offered limited support to the Australian Dollar (AUD), with the improvement failing to reverse the previous month’s slump. Confidence in the underlying health of the Australian economy remains limited. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7052 and a high of 0.7101 before closing the day at 0.7100 in the New York session.

 

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading below 14 and above 50, 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is also issuing a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 43 and lies below the neutral zone. In general, the pair has lost 0.37%.

 

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish tone and MACD is also indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 59 reading and lies above the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.26%.

  

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is also indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 37 reading and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 1.30%.

 

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bearish tone and MACD is also issuing a bearish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 26 and lies below the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.12%.

 

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading above 14, 50 and below 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bullish stance and MACD is also indicating a bullish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 72 and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.18%.

 

Appendix

  

FOREX Closing Prices for October 09, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.14889 1.1544 1.14784 1.1518 0.0029
USD/JPY 112.968 113.268 112.238 112.256 -0.6820
GBP/USD 1.31383 1.32139 1.31349 1.31885 0.0047
USD/CHF 0.99191 0.99323 0.98938 0.99004 -0.0017
USD/CAD 1.29459 1.30667 1.29243 1.3065 0.0121
EUR/JPY 129.797 130.477 129.274 129.299 -0.4780
GBP/JPY 148.418 149.279 148.034 148.059 -0.3790
CHF/JPY 113.857 114.195 113.329 113.351 -0.4910
AUD/JPY 80.193 80.563 79.056 79.149 -1.0450
EUR/GBP 0.8744 0.8749 0.87213 0.87307 -0.0011
EUR/CHF 1.13985 1.14417 1.13875 1.14039 0.0007
GBP/CHF 1.3034 1.31069 1.30269 1.30592 0.0024

  

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1417 1.1448 1.1483 1.1513 1.1549 1.1579 1.1614
USD/JPY 110.88 111.56 111.91 112.59 112.94 113.62 113.97
GBP/USD 1.3065 1.3100 1.3144 1.3179 1.3223 1.3258 1.3302
USD/CHF 0.9847 0.9870 0.9885 0.9909 0.9924 0.9947 0.9962
USD/CAD 1.2828 1.2876 1.2971 1.3019 1.3113 1.3161 1.3255
EUR/JPY 127.69 128.48 128.89 129.68 130.09 130.89 131.30
GBP/JPY 146.39 147.21 147.64 148.46 148.88 149.70 150.13
CHF/JPY 112.19 112.76 113.06 113.63 113.92 114.49 114.79
AUD/JPY 77.11 78.08 78.62 79.59 80.12 81.10 81.63
EUR/GBP 0.8691 0.8706 0.8718 0.8734 0.8746 0.8761 0.8774
EUR/CHF 1.1326 1.1357 1.1380 1.1411 1.1435 1.1465 1.1489
GBP/CHF 1.2942 1.2984 1.3022 1.3064 1.3102 1.3144 1.3182

 

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

10 Окт 2018

FOREX Newsletter

FOREX Newsletter

October 10, 2018

 

Pulse of the Market

·      With US yields reversing lower after hitting 9-year highs, USD/JPY took another trip below 113

·      No US economic reports were released yesterday and nothing specific triggered the reversal

·      After hitting 6 week lows, the euro ended the day unchanged against the U.S Dollar

·      The strongest currency was the British pound, which was trading purely on Brexit speculation

It was a rollercoaster ride in the foreign exchange market yesterday with currencies rebounding strongly after hitting fresh lows at the start of the NY session. We often see turnarounds yesterday but the abruptness of yesterday’s moves caught many investors by surprise. No US economic reports were released yesterday and nothing specific triggered the reversal. However EUR and GBP popped right after 14 GMT, a time when many options expire. This coincided with the unexpected resignation by UN Ambassador Nikki Haley so it is not clear whether investors perceived her resignation as a lack of confidence in the Trump Administration or it was all option related flow. Either way, option expirations and Haley’s resignation should only have a short term impact on currencies. Broader themes remain in play and that’s why the recoveries in euro and other high beta currencies may not last. With US yields reversing lower after hitting 9-year highs, USD/JPY took another trip below 113. Less hawkish comments from Fed President Kaplan didn’t help. While he believes that the central bank should be bringing interest rate towards neutral, he doesn’t seem to share his peers’ concerns that inflation could get out of hand and the Fed may not need to hike rates past neutral. He advocates gradual, patient rate increases. Meanwhile President Trump isn’t letting up on China. After hitting 6 week lows, the euro ended the day unchanged against the U.S dollar. For the second day in a row, Germany’s economic reports were disappointing. Although the trade surplus increased, exports and imports fell but the main focus was Italy and not data. In an attempt to stem the rise in Italian bond yields, Economy Minister Tria tried to reassure investors that they will bring their deficit back to target and pledged to do whatever it takes to contain the rise in yields if the spread between German and Italian yields hits 400 or 500 bp. It seems that these promises may have worked, at least in the short term because the recovery in EUR/USD coincided with a backup in Italian rates. The strongest currency yesterday was the British pound, which is trading purely on Brexit speculation. Reports by Dow Jones that the EU and UK are making progress sent GBP/USD above 1.31 but nothing official has been announced. The European Union is expected to present a trade offer to the UK today. Last but not least all 3 commodity currencies performed well yesterday.

 

Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
06:00 Japan Machine Tool Orders (YoY) (SEP) Medium 5.1%
08:30 U.K Trade Balance (AUG) Medium -£1150 -£111
08:30 U.K Visible Trade Balance (Pounds) (AUG) Medium -£10900 -£9973
08:30 U.K Industrial Production (YoY) (AUG) Medium 1.0% 0.9%
08:30 U.K Manufacturing Production (YoY) (AUG) Medium 1.1% 1.1%
08:30 U.K Gross Domestic Product (MoM) (AUG) Medium 0.1% 0.3%
11:00 U.S MBA Mortgage Applications (OCT 5) Medium 0.0%
12:30 Canada Building Permits (MoM) (AUG) Medium -0.5% -0.1%
12:30 U Producer Price Index Final Demand (YoY) (SEP) Low 2.7% 2.8%
23:01 U.K RICS House Price Balance (SEP) Medium 1.0% 2.0%

 

Euro

The single currency remained close to a 7-week trough as worries about the Italian budget persisted which raised new concerns within the European Union. The current concerns over a possible economic slowdown in Italy coupled with global stock market weakness has resulted in a sell off of the single currency. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1430 and a high of 1.1501 before closing the day around 1.1489 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen pair traded sideways after posting losses in the past three sessions. On the release front, Japanese current account surplus dropped to JPY 1.43 trillion, shy of the estimate of JPY 1.52 trillion. There are no major U.S events on the schedule. Today, the U.S publishes PPI and the U.S Treasury Currency report, a semi-annual publication. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 112.85 and a high of 113.37 before closing the day around 112.93 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound ended yesterday’s session higher but Earlier in the session the pound stumbled around half a per cent after Theresa May’s spokesman, James Slack, talked down the prospect of an imminent Brexit deal. Mr Slack was speaking to reporters and his words threw a wet blanket over expectations that a deal with the EU might be forthcoming. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.3031 and a high of 1.3148 before closing the day at 1.3141 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar lost ground against its U.S counterpart as the greenback broadly strengthened and the International Monetary Fund cut its forecast for global economic growth in 2018 and 2019. The IMF said that the U.S-China trade war was taking a toll and emerging markets were struggling with tighter liquidity and capital outflows. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.2933 and a high of 1.3001 before closing the day at 1.2944 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar eked out a modest bounce yesterday as the prospect of more Chinese stimulus lifted key commodity prices and squeezed short positions in the beaten-down currency. The rally was helped by gains in Chinese iron ore and coal futures on expectations Beijing would ramp up infrastructure spending to aid the economy. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7052 and a high of 0.7101 before closing the day at 0.7100 in the New York session.

 

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading below 14 and above 50, 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is also issuing a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 42 and lies below the neutral zone. In general, the pair has lost 0.25%.

 

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading below 14 and above 50, 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish tone and MACD is also indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 58 reading and lies above the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has gained 0.15%.

  

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 41 reading and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.11%.

  

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bearish tone and MACD is also issuing a bearish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 28 and lies below the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.39%.

  

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading above 14, 50 and below 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bullish stance and MACD is also indicating a bullish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 70 and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.36%.

 

Appendix

  

FOREX Closing Prices for October 09, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.14881 1.15019 1.14308 1.14893 0.0000
USD/JPY 113.184 113.373 112.85 112.938 -0.2740
GBP/USD 1.30869 1.31483 1.30311 1.31418 0.0051
USD/CHF 0.99242 0.9954 0.99092 0.99175 -0.0005
USD/CAD 1.2955 1.30013 1.29332 1.29444 -0.0017
EUR/JPY 130.061 130.206 129.316 129.777 -0.3250
GBP/JPY 148.144 148.729 147.321 148.438 0.2150
CHF/JPY 114.026 114.08 113.642 113.842 -0.2210
AUD/JPY 80.088 80.26 79.792 80.194 0.0850
EUR/GBP 0.87776 0.87893 0.87313 0.87413 -0.0034
EUR/CHF 1.14008 1.14133 1.13668 1.13967 -0.0006
GBP/CHF 1.29871 1.3051 1.29557 1.30354 0.0046

  

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1375 1.1403 1.1446 1.1474 1.1517 1.1545 1.1588
USD/JPY 112.21 112.53 112.73 113.05 113.26 113.58 113.78
GBP/USD 1.2949 1.2990 1.3066 1.3107 1.3183 1.3224 1.3300
USD/CHF 0.9855 0.9882 0.9900 0.9927 0.9945 0.9972 0.9989
USD/CAD 1.2850 1.2892 1.2918 1.2960 1.2986 1.3028 1.3054
EUR/JPY 128.44 128.88 129.33 129.77 130.22 130.66 131.11
GBP/JPY 146.19 146.75 147.60 148.16 149.00 149.57 150.41
CHF/JPY 113.19 113.42 113.63 113.85 114.07 114.29 114.51
AUD/JPY 79.44 79.61 79.90 80.08 80.37 80.55 80.84
EUR/GBP 0.8661 0.8696 0.8719 0.8754 0.8777 0.8812 0.8835
EUR/CHF 1.1325 1.1346 1.1371 1.1392 1.1418 1.1439 1.1464
GBP/CHF 1.2882 1.2919 1.2977 1.3014 1.3072 1.3109 1.3168

 

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

10 Окт 2018

Daily Market View

Daily Market View

Wednesday, October 10, 2018
          U.S Stock Market

 

DJIA S & P 500 NASDAQ
26475 2887.75 7397.25
-0.15% -0.09% +0.08%

Global stocks extended declines yesterday, taking European markets past a six month and pulling U.S. equity futures into the red, following a downbeat assessment of world economic growth from the International Monetary Fund and a renewed rise in U.S. government bond yields ahead of a three-day series of auctions from the Treasury that will add $230 billion to an already-stressed bond market. The IMF said trade tensions between Washington and Beijing, alongside tighter financing conditions in emerging markets and uncertainty in Europe, will weigh on growth this year and next, while the bump from fiscal stimulus in the United States will fade just as higher borrowing costs begin to crimp consumer demand in the red-hot U.S economy. Technology stocks rebounded from a three-day rout but couldn’t lead the broader market higher. The NASDAQ 100 Index, which lost nearly 4 percent over the previous three sessions, was higher but retreated from a 1 percent increase earlier in the day.

 

Major Economic Releases for Today
Period Event GMT Forecast Previous

sep

Japan Machine Tool Orders (YoY) 06:00   5.1%

aug

U.K Trade Balance 08:30 -£1150 -£111

aug

U.K Visible Trade Balance (Pounds) 08:30 -£10900 -£9973

aug

U.K Industrial Production (YoY) 08:30 1.0% 0.9%

aug

U.K Manufacturing Production (YoY) 08:30 1.1% 1.1%

aug

U.K Gross Domestic Product (MoM) 08:30 0.1% 0.3%

oct

U.S MBA Mortgage Applications 11:00   0.0%

aug

Canada Building Permits (MoM) 12:30 -0.5% -0.1%

sep

U.S Producer Price Index Final Demand (YoY) 12:30 2.7% 2.8%
Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.21%. The best performers of the session on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were Walmart Inc., which rose 2.52% or 2.39 points to trade at 97.08 at the close. Meanwhile, Chevron Corp added 1.59% or 1.98 points to end at 126.82 and Apple Inc. was up 1.39% or 3.10 points to 226.87 in late trade. The worst performers of the session were DowDuPont Inc., which fell 3.67% or 2.32 points to trade at 60.84 at the close. United Technologies Corporation declined 2.66% or 3.71 points to end at 135.88 and Caterpillar Inc. was down 2.54% or 3.89 points to 149.46.

 

 

NASDAQ 100

The tech heavy NASDAQ index gained 0.03%. The top performers on the NASDAQ Composite were Youngevity International Inc. which rose 66.01% to 10.160, One Horizon Group Inc. which was up 65.25% to settle at 0.3900 and Agile Thrpe which gained 53.71% to close at 0.71. The worst performers were Trevena Inc. which was down 64.09% to 1.07 in late trade, Arbutus Biopharma Corp which lost 33.99% to settle at 6.000 and Affimed NV which was down 24.41% to 3.500 at the close.

 

 

Oil

Oil prices rose in yesterday’s trading session on growing evidence of falling crude exports from Iran and as nearly one-fifth of daily oil production was lost from offshore Gulf of Mexico wells due to Hurricane Michael. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude settled 67 cents, or nearly 1 percent, higher at $74.96. WTI hit $76.90, a nearly four-year high last week. The oil market mood is exceptionally bullish, with fears growing that the U.S demands for an Iran oil embargo could cause a significant supply shortfall. Iran’s crude exports fell further in the first week of October, according to tanker data and an industry source, as buyers sought alternatives ahead of U.S sanctions that take effect on Nov. 4. Iran exported 1.1 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude in that seven-day period, Refinitiv Eikon data showed. An industry source who also tracks exports said October shipments were so far below 1 million bpd. That is down from at least 2.5 million bpd in April.

 

 

 

Precious and Base Metals

Gold prices eased for a second session yesterday as a stronger dollar and bullish U.S interest rate outlook outweighed support from an earlier equity market sell-off. Spot gold was down 0.1 percent at $1,186.06 per ounce. On Monday, it fell 1.2 percent in its biggest one-day percentage fall since Aug. 15, also touching a more than one-week low of $1,183.19. U.S. gold futures edged 0.1 percent higher to $1,189.80. Europe battled to fend off a four-day losing streak for world stocks, after weary investors saw Asian shares stumble to a 17-month low and bond markets hit by a fresh bout of selling. Adding to the bleak outlook, the International Monetary Fund on Tuesday cut its global economic growth forecast for the first time since 2016, citing pressures from ongoing trade tussles between the United States and China. Some of the main themes in gold markets are the U.S. Federal Reserve rate hike, higher yields and dollar strength. At the same time, fragile emerging markets and higher oil prices will mitigate those headwinds. Gold has held in a $34 range for the last 1-1/2 months, which some analysts say suggests resilience, supported by concerns over economic growth in emerging markets and inflationary pressures from rising U.S. Treasury yields and soaring oil prices. Monday’s drop in prices triggered some physical demand for gold in China, the world’s biggest consumer. However, the metal has lost much of its safe-haven appeal this year with investors increasingly opting for the greenback instead, as expectations of further U.S interest rate hikes make gold less attractive. Higher interest rates boost the dollar and push bond yields up, putting pressure on gold by increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion. The monetary policy by the Fed is dominating the whole equation, putting downward pressure on gold. The Fed increased interest rates last month for the third time this year and is widely expected to hike again in December, with no suggestion the central bank’s tightening policy will end any time soon.

 

 

 

Traditional Agricultures

Soybean futures gained more ground to trade near last session’s six-week high as rains in parts of the U.S Midwest threatened to slow the harvest and reduce crop quality.

 

Futures Settlement Price Tuesday, October 09, 2018
Instrument Contract Open High Low Settlement Net Change
DJIA DJM18 26529 26559 26335 26475 -67
S & P 500 SPM18 2892.25 2899.75 2874.5 2887.75 -6
NASDAQ 100 NDM18 7390.75 7455 7336.75 7397.25 5.25
Hang Seng HSH18 26099 26338 26018 26056 -88
Nikkei 225 NKH18 23620 23620 23440 23480 -345
FTSE 100 FTH18 7213.5 7216.5 7149 7196.5 -31
Gold GCJ18 1191.4 1195.4 1186.4 1192.9 1.6
Silver SIK18 1440 1446 1427.5 1439.5 2
Copper HGK18 276.9 281.8 275 281.25 4.2
Crude Oil CLK18 74.17 75.24 73.97 74.63 0.45
Wheat WK18 512.5 520 511 514.75 1.25
Soybeans SK18 868.25 872 859 862.5 -6.25
Corn CK18 365.75 367.5 363.25 364 -2.25

 

 

Daily Swings  (The Pivot Levels)
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
DJM18 26130 26232 26354 26456 26578 26680 26802
SPM18 2849.67 2862.08 2874.92 2887.33 2900.17 2912.58 2925.42
NDM18 7219.42 7278.08 7337.67 7396.33 7455.92 7514.58 7574.17
HSH18 25617 25817 25937 26137 26257 26457 26577
NKH18 23227 23333 23407 23513 23587 23693 23767
FTH18 7090.67 7119.83 7158.17 7187.33 7225.67 7254.83 7293.17
GCJ18 1178.73 1182.57 1187.73 1191.57 1196.73 1200.57 1205.73
SIK18 1410.83 1419.17 1429.33 1437.67 1447.83 1456.17 1466.33
HGK18 270.10 272.55 276.90 279.35 283.70 286.15 290.50
CLK18 72.72 73.34 73.99 74.61 75.26 75.88 76.53
WK18 501.50 506.25 510.50 515.25 519.50 524.25 528.50
SK18 844.00 851.50 857.00 864.50 870.00 877.50 883.00
CK18 358.08 360.67 362.33 364.92 366.58 369.17 370.83

 

 Source: – News & Quotes (Courtesy:  Reuters)                                                                    

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