According to Imre Speizer, analyst at Westpac, the early Oct rise in NZD/USD from 0.6204 to 0.6337 has the potential to extend to the 0.6400 area over the next week.
“Speculators appear to be extremely short the NZD, according to CFTC futures data (chart across), providing one source of support. However good US-China trade news is probably required to give the NZD a meaningful lift near term.”
“Next week’s CPI data will need to be quite weak to surprise the RBNZ which has forecast a fall in the annual pace from 1.7% to 1.3%.”
“Multi-month, though, we remain bearish, targeting 0.6130 which was the 2015 low. We expect the NZD to be weighed down by slowing economic growth which is likely to persist until year-end. At the same time, we expect the USD to benefit from trade wars and global risks.”