The resignation of chief economic advisor Gary Cohen (6 March) after disagreeing with steel and aluminum tariffs has led to a rise in influence of trade hawks in the White House, according to Greg Gibbs, Analyst at Amplifying Global FX Capital.

Key Quotes

“The firing of Secretary of State Tliierson (13-Mar), Resignation of National Security Advisor McMasters (23 Mar) both replaced with foreign policy hawks (State: Pompeo; NSA: Bolton).”

“The 20pt swing against the Republican Party and upset Democrat victory in the Pennsylvania special election (14-Mar).”

“A rise in calls for gun control since Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School Shooting in Parkland Florida on 14-Feb.”

“Former Russian spy poisoned by a nerve agent in London (4 Mar). UK expels 23 Russian diplomats (14 Mar). 20 other countries expel Russian diplomats, including the USA (26 Mar).  Trump calls to congratulate Putin on Russian Presidential election win (21 Mar).”

“Former FBI Director McCabe fired two days before his retirement (16 Mar); Trump sends out many tweets attacking Mueller investigation, claiming a deep state conspiracy.  Trump’s lawyer leading the contact with the Mueller investigation, Dowd, calls for Mueller investigation to be closed.  Dowd resigns, (22-Mar). Trump is reported to be finding it difficult to find a replacement.”

“Trump steel and aluminum tariff news (1 Mar), the response is widespread criticism from Republicans in Congress, US business and other countries.  Cohen resigns (6 Mar). Trump orders tariffs, but winds these back to exclude Canada and Mexico (8 Mar).  Further exemptions are provided to Argentian, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Mexico, EU and South Korea (21 Mar).”

“Rumours increase during March that the US plan wide-ranging tariffs against China.  Trump orders tariffs to apply to $50bn of Chinese imports, and restrictions on Chinese investment in US companies (22 Mar). China announces retaliatory tariffs on $3bn of US imports. Fears of a trade war cause a sharp fall in US and global equities after the 21/22 China Tariff news.”

“US strikes a new trade deal with South Korea (27 Mar) where US gains some concessions on auto trade.”

 

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