11 Dic 2018

FOREX Newsletter

 

FOREX Newsletter

 December 11, 2018

 

Pulse of the Market

·      The Greenback strengthened versus a basket of currencies yesterday that includes the Euro

·      Sentix research group said its investor sentiment index for the euro zone slid to -0.3 from 8.8

·      British Prime Minister Theresa May postponed a parliamentary vote on her Brexit deal

·      Japan’s current account surplus dropped sharply to JPY 1.21 trillion, down from 1.33 trillion

 

The U.S Dollar was higher yesterday, as the pound tumbled amid reports that UK Prime Minister is cancelling a vote on Tuesday on the Brexit draft proposal. The pound slid to its weakest level in nearly 1-1/2 years against the dollar on Monday as British Prime Minister Theresa May postponed a parliamentary vote on her Brexit deal, rekindling doubts about U.K.’s departure from the European Union in March. The greenback enjoyed a mild recovery following its steepest weekly drop versus a basket of currencies in three months last week, as traders reduced their expectations that the Federal Reserve might pause its interest rate hikes sooner than previously thought. On Sunday Chinese officials summoned the U.S. ambassador to Beijing to protest the arrest of the chief financial officer of Chinese electronics giant Huawei, Meng Wanzhou, in Canada. U.S officials are investigating her role in the company’s operations in Iran. The arrest of Meng has added to tensions between the two biggest economic countries in the world. U.S President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed on Dec. 1 to a 90-day truce on trade tariffs. Still, U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said on Sunday there is a “hard deadline”, noting U.S.-China trade negotiations need to reach a successful end by March 1. The euro hit a three-month peak versus the pound at 90.47 pence. It was last up 0.77 percent at 90.22 pence. The Japanese yen was down in yesterday’s trading session. On the release front, Japan’s current account surplus dropped sharply to JPY 1.21 trillion, down from 1.33 trillion. This missed the estimate of JPY 1.29 trillion. Japanese Final GDP declined 0.6%, missing the estimate of 0.5%. In the U.S, JOLTS Job Openings improved to 7.08 million, but was well short of the estimate of 7.22 million. Today, Japan releases manufacturing data, while the U.S releases Producer Price Index reports. The new trading week started with dismal Japanese data, as Final GDP in the third quarter declined 0.6%.

 

 

Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
00:30 Australia NAB Business Confidence (NOV) Medium     4
00:30 Australia House Price Index (YoY) (3Q) Low   -2.0% -0.6%
06:00 Japan Machine Tool Orders (YoY) (NOV) Medium     -0.7%
09:30 U.K Claimant Count Rate (NOV) Medium     2.7%
09:30 U.K Jobless Claims Change (NOV) Medium     20.2k
09:30 U.K Average Weekly Earnings (3M/YoY) (OCT) Medium   3.0% 3.0%
09:30 U.K Employment Change 3M/3M (OCT) Medium   25k 23k
10:00 German ZEW Survey Current Situation (DEC) Medium   55 58.2
10:00 German ZEW Survey Expectations (DEC) High   -25 -24.1
10:00 Euro-Zone ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) (DEC) High     -22
11:00 U.S NFIB Small Business Optimism (NOV) Low   107 107.4
13:30 U.S PPI Final Demand (YoY) (NOV) Low   2.5% 2.9%
19:15 RBNZ’s Orr at Parliament Committee on Annual Report High      
23:50 Japan Machine Orders (YoY) (OCT) Medium   5.0% -7.0%

 

Euro

The single currency fell as investor morale in the euro zone slumped to a four-year low in December as fears about trade conflicts, Italy’s budget row with the European Union and Brexit led to a collapse in sentiment, a survey showed. Sentix research group said its investor sentiment index for the euro zone slid to -0.3 from 8.8 in November. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1349 and a high of 1.1441 before closing the day around 1.1354 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen was down yesterday. On the release front, Japan’s current account surplus dropped sharply to JPY 1.21 trillion, down from 1.33 trillion. This missed the estimate of JPY 1.29 trillion. Japanese Final GDP declined 0.6%, missing the estimate of 0.5%. In the U.S, JOLTS Job Openings improved to 7.08 million. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 112.22 and a high of 113.34 before closing the day around 113.31 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound slid to its weakest level in nearly 1-1/2 years against the Dollar yesterday as British Prime Minister Theresa May postponed a parliamentary vote on her Brexit deal, rekindling doubts about U.K’s departure from the European Union in March. The greenback enjoyed a mild recovery following its steepest weekly drop. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.2504 and a high of 1.2757 before closing the day at 1.2560 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar edged lower against its U.S. counterpart yesterday as oil prices declined and the spread between Canada’s two- and five-year yields turned negative for the first time since September 2007. The five-year yield fell 0.6 basis points below the two-year yield. U.S crude prices were down 2.3 per cent at $51.4 a barrel.  Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.3290 and a high of 1.3414 before closing the day at 1.3395 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar continues to slide, falling to the lowest level in a month yesterday. A combination of heightened risk aversion and soft economic data from Australia, the United States and China has taken its toll on the Aussie dollar so far in December. Chinese CPI and PPI also undershot market expectations. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7176 and a high of 0.7224 before closing the day at 0.7185 in the New York session.

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is issuing a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 47 and lies below the neutral zone. In general, the pair has gained 0.15%.

 

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish tone and MACD is also indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 34 reading and lies below the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.81%.

 

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 44 reading and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.45%.

 

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and below 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 70 and lies above the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has gained 1.00%.

 

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish stance and MACD is also indicating a bearish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 24 and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 1.32%.

 

Appendix

  

FOREX Closing Prices for December 10, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.13923 1.14413 1.13491 1.13546 -0.0050
USD/JPY 112.624 113.349 112.221 113.314 0.6590
GBP/USD 1.27124 1.27576 1.25049 1.256 -0.0180
USD/CHF 0.99014 0.99098 0.98664 0.99015 0.0008
USD/CAD 1.33265 1.34143 1.32906 1.33953 0.0078
EUR/JPY 128.326 128.915 128.151 128.686 0.1960
GBP/JPY 143.193 143.683 141.15 142.375 -1.1690
CHF/JPY 113.714 114.454 113.565 114.414 0.5790
AUD/JPY 80.999 81.497 80.691 81.457 0.3680
EUR/GBP 0.89604 0.90855 0.89572 0.90389 0.0090
EUR/CHF 1.12835 1.13058 1.1234 1.12437 -0.0041
GBP/CHF 1.25894 1.26079 1.23769 1.24396 -0.0166

 

 

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1230 1.1289 1.1322 1.1382 1.1414 1.1474 1.1506
USD/JPY 111.45 111.83 112.57 112.96 113.70 114.09 114.83
GBP/USD 1.2205 1.2355 1.2457 1.2608 1.2710 1.2860 1.2963
USD/CHF 0.9832 0.9849 0.9875 0.9893 0.9919 0.9936 0.9962
USD/CAD 1.3195 1.3243 1.3319 1.3367 1.3443 1.3490 1.3567
EUR/JPY 127.49 127.82 128.25 128.58 129.02 129.35 129.78
GBP/JPY 138.59 139.87 141.12 142.40 143.66 144.94 146.19
CHF/JPY 112.95 113.26 113.83 114.14 114.72 115.03 115.61
AUD/JPY 80.13 80.41 80.93 81.22 81.74 82.02 82.55
EUR/GBP 0.8841 0.8899 0.8969 0.9027 0.9097 0.9156 0.9226
EUR/CHF 1.1145 1.1189 1.1217 1.1261 1.1288 1.1333 1.1360
GBP/CHF 1.2111 1.2244 1.2342 1.2475 1.2573 1.2706 1.2804

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

Disclaimer

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