05 Jul 2018

FOREX Newsletter

     

FOREX Newsletter

July 05, 2018

 

Pulse of the Market

·      Dollar remained range-bound before today’s release of minutes from the FOMC minutes

·      Weaker confidence in the euro zone overshadowed better-than-expected data on business activity

·      Sterling advanced as traders responded to a better-than-expected Markit Services PMI reading

·      The spotlight will be on the Federal Reserve today, with the release of the FOMC minutes

 

The U.S Dollar treaded water against a currency basket on Wednesday in thin trade with U.S. markets closed for the July 4th holiday. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of six major currencies, was trading at 94.38. With U.S markets shut, investors were turning their attention to what was set to be a busy end to the week, with minutes from the Federal Reserve’s June meeting due out today and the U.S. employment report for June scheduled for Friday. Investors remained cautious ahead of Friday’s deadline for the U.S. to impose a 25% tariff on Chinese imports, which Beijing has vowed to match with a levy on U.S. products. China’s Yuan rebounded overnight after China’s central bank pledged to keep the exchange rate “basically stable,” in a bid to calm markets which have been roiled by fears over the fallout of the escalating trade spat between Washington and Beijing. U.S. President Donald Trump is sticking to plans to penalize major trading partners, including the European Union, Mexico and Canada as part of his ‘America First’ policy that many investors fear will hit global growth. The euro was slightly lower, with EUR/USD slipping 0.13%. In the euro zone, data earlier in the day showed that private sector activity accelerated in June, indicating that the region’s economy regained some traction at the end of the second quarter. The dollar drifted lower against the yen, with USD/JPY dipping 0.07%. The pound edged higher, with GBP/USD up 0.11%. Sterling found support after data showing that activity in the UK service sector accelerated at the fastest pace in eight months in June. The report added to signs that the economy rebounded in the second quarter and kept the door open for an August rate hike by the Bank of England. The Canadian Dollar steadied against its U.S counterpart after touching its strongest intraday level in nearly three weeks, as oil prices pared some recent gains and a holiday in the United States restrained activity in currency markets.
 

 

Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
06:00 German Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) (MAY) Medium   1.7% -0.1%
07:15 Switzerland Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JUN) Medium   1.1% 1.0%
07:15 Switzerland CPI EU Harmonized (YoY) (JUN) Medium     1.0%
07:30 Markit Germany Construction PMI (JUN) Medium     53.9
08:10 Markit France Retail PMI (JUN) Low     50.7
08:10 Markit Germany Retail PMI (JUN) Medium     55.5
08:10 Markit Eurozone Retail PMI (JUN) Low     51.7
10:00 BOE Governor Carney Speaks in Newcastle High      
12:15 U.S ADP Employment Change (JUN) Medium   190k 178k
12:30 U.S Initial Jobless Claims (JUN 30) Medium   225k 227k
12:30 U.S Continuing Claims (JUN 23) Medium   1718k 1705k
14:00 U.S ISM Non-Manufacturing/Services Composite (JUN) High   58.2 58.6
15:00 DOE U.S Crude Oil Inventories (JUN 29) Medium     -9891k
18:00 FOMC Meeting Minutes (JUN 13) High      
Euro

The single currency fell as weaker confidence in the euro zone overshadowed better-than-expected data on business activity, while concern about Washington’s end-of-week deadline to impose tariffs on Chinese imports crimped trading. However, with Independence Day celebrations in the U.S discouraged traders from taking big positions. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1629 and a high of 1.1680 before closing the day around 1.1658 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen pair ticked lower yesterday. U.S banks and stock markets were closed for the Fourth of July and there were no U.S events. The sole Japanese event is the 30-year bond auction. Today, the U.S releases ADP nonfarm payrolls, unemployment claims and the FOMC minutes of the June policy meeting. Japan will release Household Spending. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 110.25 and a high of 110.59 before closing the day around 110.50 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound advanced against rivals such as the U.S Dollar and Euro mid-week as traders responded to a better-than-expected IHS Markit Services PMI reading, which showed momentum within the UK’s largest economic sector gathering pace in June which makes the likelihood of a Bank of England interest rate rise in August all the more likely.  Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.3169 and a high of 1.3247 before closing the day at 1.3231 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar steadied against its U.S. counterpart on Wednesday while holding near its strongest level in nearly three weeks, as oil prices rose and investors braced for a potential interest rate hike next week from the Bank of Canada. The price of oil was driven higher by a threat to supply from an Iranian commander and a drop in U.S crude inventories. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.3109 and a high of 1.3159 before closing the day at 1.3144 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar continued the rally which started after the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) interest rate decision. The AUD/USD pair is trading at 0.7408. The catalyst for the movement was the retail sales data for the month of May. In that month, the sales increased by 0.4%, which was better than the expected 0.3%. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7308 and a high of 0.7403 before closing the day at 0.7319 in the New York session.

 

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is also issuing a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 51 and lies above the neutral zone. In general, the pair has lost 0.10%.

 

  

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish tone and MACD is also indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 49 reading and lies below the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has gained 0.25%.

 

  

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 45 reading and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.07%.

 

 

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 52 and lies above the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.25%.

 

 

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish stance and MACD is indicating a bullish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 45 and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.35%.

 

Appendix

 

 

FOREX Closing Prices for July 04, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.16573 1.16804 1.16292 1.16581 0.0001
USD/JPY 110.584 110.594 110.258 110.508 -0.0660
GBP/USD 1.3192 1.32476 1.3169 1.32319 0.0040
USD/CHF 0.99224 0.99379 0.99034 0.99303 0.0008
USD/CAD 1.31368 1.31592 1.31096 1.31449 0.0007
EUR/JPY 128.937 128.94 128.478 128.804 -0.1290
GBP/JPY 145.881 146.34 145.543 146.217 0.3610
CHF/JPY 111.406 111.451 111.157 111.316 -0.0840
AUD/JPY 81.643 81.938 81.401 81.592 -0.0590
EUR/GBP 0.88339 0.88388 0.87978 0.88123 -0.0022
EUR/CHF 1.15684 1.15817 1.15471 1.15748 0.0007
GBP/CHF 1.30916 1.31458 1.30764 1.31387 0.0046

 

  

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1580 1.1605 1.1631 1.1656 1.1683 1.1707 1.1734
USD/JPY 109.98 110.12 110.31 110.45 110.65 110.79 110.98
GBP/USD 1.3106 1.3138 1.3185 1.3216 1.3263 1.3295 1.3342
USD/CHF 0.9875 0.9889 0.9910 0.9924 0.9944 0.9958 0.9979
USD/CAD 1.3067 1.3088 1.3117 1.3138 1.3166 1.3188 1.3216
EUR/JPY 128.08 128.28 128.54 128.74 129.00 129.20 129.47
GBP/JPY 144.93 145.24 145.73 146.03 146.52 146.83 147.32
CHF/JPY 110.87 111.01 111.17 111.31 111.46 111.60 111.75
AUD/JPY 80.81 81.11 81.35 81.64 81.89 82.18 82.42
EUR/GBP 0.8753 0.8775 0.8794 0.8816 0.8835 0.8857 0.8876
EUR/CHF 1.1519 1.1533 1.1554 1.1568 1.1589 1.1602 1.1623
GBP/CHF 1.3025 1.3051 1.3095 1.3120 1.3164 1.3190 1.3234

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

 

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.