In view of analysts at TD Securities, Canadian retail sales are forecast to rise by 0.6% in August on another sizeable pickup in motor vehicle sales, leaving the ex-auto figure little changed for a second consecutive month.
“August was a record month for light truck sales, helped by ideal weather conditions, a recovering housing market, and robust labour market gains. This should more than offset the decline in passenger car sales while housing market strength should provide further support to durable goods via home furnishings.”
“Lower gasoline prices will exert a modest headwind to total retail sales, leaving the ex. autos and gas measure to post a modest increase, while a modest decline in overall consumer goods prices suggests a more substantial pickup in retail volumes to the benefit of industry-level GDP. This should come as relief for those concerned by the Q2 consumption slowdown, however, a muted performance across June/ July will weigh on any rebound in Q3.”