13 Dic 2018

Daily Market View

Daily Market View

Thursday, December 13, 2018
          U.S Stock Market

 

DJIA S & P 500 NASDAQ
24555 2651.00 6765.50
+0.31% +0.32% +0.50%

U.S stocks advanced as the outlook for trade took a positive turn and confidence grew that the British prime minister will defeat a challenge to her leadership. The S&P 500 rose as much as 1.9 percent before an afternoon slump that cut the advance by more than half. The slide marks the fourth straight day that investors have sold an early rally, continuing a trend that’s a stark reversal from months where traders bought any meaningful dip. Oil’s retreat coincided with the move, amid reports that deep discord exists among OPEC members ahead of planned output cuts. The early gains came as signs emerged that trade tensions would ease, first after the arrested Huawei executive was granted bail and then when President Donald Trump suggested he could use his influence to calm that situation as part of a deal with China. For its part, China hinted that it would ease access to local markets. Treasuries and the dollar both slipped as data showed a key measure of U.S inflation picked up as expected in November.

 

Major Economic Releases for Today
Period Event GMT Forecast Previous

 

Summit of EU Leaders      

nov

U.K RICS House Price Balance 00:01 -10.0% -10.0%

nov

German Consumer Price Index (YoY) 07:00 2.3% 2.3%

dec

SNB Sight Deposit Interest Rate 08:30 -0.75% -0.75%

 

SNB’s Jordan Speaks at Press Conference in Bern 09:00    

dec

European Central Bank Rate Decision 12:45 0.00% 0.00%

oct

Canada New Housing Price Index (YoY) 13:30 0.1% 0.2%

dec

U.S Initial Jobless Claims 13:30 225k 231k

nov

U.S Monthly Budget Statement 19:00 -$197.0b -$100.5b
Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.64%. The best performers of the session were DowDuPont Inc., which rose 2.05% or 1.09 points to trade at 54.35 at the close. Meanwhile, American Express Company added 1.97% or 2.08 points to end at 107.48 and Caterpillar Inc. was up 1.73% or 2.13 points to 125.37 in late trade. The worst performers of the session were Verizon Communications Inc., which fell 2.72% or 1.60 points to trade at 57.25 at the close. Exxon Mobil Corp declined 0.86% or 0.66 points to end at 76.02 and Walmart Inc. was down 0.79% or 0.74 points to 93.11.

NASDAQ 100

The NASDAQ index added 0.95%. The top performers on the NASDAQ were Teligent Inc. which rose 30.80% to 1.805, Staffing 360 Solutions Inc. which was up 28.79% to settle at 1.700 and EyeGate Pharmaceuticals Inc. which gained 28.30% to close at 0.513. The worst performers were Synergy Pharmaceuticals Inc. which was down 52.80% to 0.160 in late trade, Yangtze River Port and Logistics Ltd which lost 23.34% to settle at 4.86 and Neurotrope Inc. which was down 23.03% to 3.8100 at the close.

Oil

U.S crude oil inventories fell less than expected last week, the Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report yesterday. The EIA data showed that crude oil inventories decreased by 1.21 million barrels in the week to Dec. 7. That was compared to forecasts for a stockpile draw of 2.99 million barrels, after a drop of 7.32 million barrels in the previous week, amounting to a second straight weekly decline. The EIA report also showed that gasoline inventories rose by 2.09 million barrels, compared to expectations for a build of 2.46 million barrels, while distillate stockpiles unexpectedly decreased by 1.48 million barrels, compared to forecasts for a gain of 1.80 million. Ahead of the release, oil prices had already been climbing after the American Petroleum Institute’s weekly report said on Tuesday that U.S. crude inventories fell by 10.2 million barrels last week. Oil has also been supported this week by the supply loss in Libya, which declared force majeure on exports from the country’s largest oilfield on Sunday.

 

Precious and Base Metals

Gold prices edged higher yesterday as the dollar slipped and expectations for the number of U.S interest rate hikes next year dimmed, increasing the appeal of non-interest yielding bullion. Spot gold was up 0.1 percent at $1,244.40 per ounce. U.S gold futures settled up $2.80, or 0.22 percent, at $1,250. The dollar was weaker against a basket of currencies after data showed U.S consumer prices were unchanged in November, supporting the view that underlying inflation remained firm, but not enough to push the Federal Reserve to take a more aggressive stance. We are seeing a bit of support from a weaker dollar across the commodities complex. In addition to that, we are seeing an ongoing outflow of funds from equities and that money flow into alternative assets continues to support the precious metals complex. Investors kept an eye out for developments around U.S-China trade talks, and on Brexit after lawmakers in British Prime Minister Theresa May’s Conservatives gathered enough support to trigger a no-confidence vote in her leadership yesterday. The safe-haven assets continue to be well supported in this environment and that along with some recent comments from the Fed on changing their potential path on interest rates has also been supportive. Markets are not expecting more than one rate hike from the U.S central bank next year, after a likely interest rate increase at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Dec. 18-19. Next week’s FOMC meeting is going to be the last major economic event of the year. The gold market has started to price in the ‘one and done’ interest rate scenario. Dollar-denominated bullion earlier this week touched its highest level in five months at $1,250.55 per ounce as chances of slower interest rate hikes reduced the opportunity cost of holding the yellow metal. Indicative of investor interest in gold, holdings of SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, rose to the highest level since late August on Tuesday.

 

 

Traditional Agricultures

Soybean futures hit a 4-1/2-month high yesterday as China bought U.S soybeans for the first time since U.S President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping met in early December.

 

 

 

Futures Settlement Price Wednesday, December 12, 2018
Instrument Contract Open High Low Settlement Net Change
DJIA DJM18 24347 24842 24334 24555 141
S & P 500 SPM18 2632.5 2686.25 2631.5 2651 10.5
NASDAQ 100 NDM18 6686.25 6871.5 6683.25 6765.5 50.75
Hang Seng HSH18 26028 26270 25991 26233 520
Nikkei 225 NKH18 21260 21625 21230 21620 550
FTSE 100 FTH18 6855.5 6903.5 6826.5 6851.5 20.5
Gold GCJ18 1248.2 1252.2 1246.9 1250.4 2.3
Silver SIK18 1465 1488 1462 1482.5 18.5
Copper HGK18 276.35 277.9 275.55 276.35 0
Crude Oil CLK18 51.92 52.79 50.91 51.16 -0.77
Wheat WK18 522.5 528.5 521.25 526 5.5
Soybeans SK18 915.5 927.5 915 919.5 4.75
Corn CK18 384.5 387.25 384 384.75 0.25

 

 

Daily Swings  (The Pivot Levels)
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
DJM18 23804 24069 24312 24577 24820 25085 25328
SPM18 2571.50 2601.50 2626.25 2656.25 2681.00 2711.00 2735.75
NDM18 6487.08 6585.17 6675.33 6773.42 6863.58 6961.67 7051.83
HSH18 25780 25886 26059 26165 26338 26444 26617
NKH18 20963 21097 21358 21492 21753 21887 22148
FTH18 6740.50 6783.50 6817.50 6860.50 6894.50 6937.50 6971.50
GCJ18 1242.17 1244.53 1247.47 1249.83 1252.77 1255.13 1258.07
SIK18 1441.00 1451.50 1467.00 1477.50 1493.00 1503.50 1519.00
HGK18 272.95 274.25 275.30 276.60 277.65 278.95 280.00
CLK18 48.57 49.74 50.45 51.62 52.33 53.50 54.21
WK18 514.75 518.00 522.00 525.25 529.25 532.50 536.50
SK18 901.33 908.17 913.83 920.67 926.33 933.17 938.83
CK18 380.17 382.08 383.42 385.33 386.67 388.58 389.92

 

 Source: – News & Quotes (Courtesy:  Reuters)                                                                    

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

 

 

 

 

13 Dic 2018

FOREX Newsletter

FOREX Newsletter

December 13, 2018


 

Pulse of the Market

·      U.S consumer inflation reports softened in November, but matched the estimates

·      The ongoing U.S-China trade war has had a chilling effect on the Japanese manufacturing sector

·      The likely outcome of Friday’s summit are a blow to German Finance Minister Olaf Scholz

·      The Canadian Dollar gained against the U.S Dollar, boosted by higher oil prices

 

The U.S Dollar was lower yesterday, as inflation data underlined expectations that the Federal Reserve will slow its pace of rate hikes in 2019. The Labor Department said its consumer price index was unchanged from a month earlier, slowing from the 0.3% increase seen in October. Analysts had forecast a 0.1% increase. The U.S Dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of six major currencies, fell 0.3% to 97.09. The dollar has been under pressure recently amid expectations that the Fed will pause its pace of interest rate hikes next year, despite an expected rate increase next week. The British pound has rallied amid speculation Theresa May can survive the vote of confidence against her, lowering the chances of a hard Brexit leader winning control of the ruling Conservative party. In the latest twist for sterling in a turbulent week, the pound rose to $1.2620 against the dollar and €1.1121 against the euro, as more than 150 Conservative MPs said they would vote for the PM. Business leaders reacted angrily to the fresh turmoil in Westminster, saying the latest uncertainty was bad for the economy. The US Dollar has been grinding higher against the Japanese yen for some time, but every time we get close to the ¥114 level, we pull back a bit and it looks likely that the uptrend underneath should continue to offer support. Ultimately, this is a market that should eventually make a decision, but it may not be until 2019 that it happens. Japanese Core Machinery Orders rebounded with a gain of 7.6%, but fell short of the forecast of 10.2%. Japanese PPI continues to lose ground, and dropped from 2.9% to 2.3%. This missed the estimate of 2.4%. The Canadian Dollar was boosted by higher oil prices and investor optimism over trade negotiations between the United States and China. Canada exports many commodities, including oil, and runs a current account deficit, so its economy stands to benefit if the outlook improves for the global flow of trade and capital.

 

Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
00:00 Australia Consumer Inflation Expectation (DEC) Medium 3.6%
00:01 U.K RICS House Price Balance (NOV) Medium -10.0% -10.0%
07:00 German Consumer Price Index (YoY) (NOV) Medium 2.3% 2.3%
08:30 SNB Sight Deposit Interest Rate (DEC 13) High -0.75% -0.75%
09:00 SNB’s Jordan Speaks at Press Conference in Bern High
12:45 European Central Bank Rate Decision (DEC 13) High 0.00% 0.00%
12:45 ECB Marginal Lending Facility (DEC 13) High 0.25% 0.25%
12:45 ECB Deposit Facility Rate (DEC 13) High -0.40% -0.40%
13:30 Canada New Housing Price Index (YoY) (OCT) Medium 0.1% 0.2%
13:30 U.S Export Price Index (YoY) (NOV) Medium 3.1%
13:30 U.S Import Price Index ex Petroleum (MoM) (NOV) Medium 0.0% 0.2%
13:30 U.S Initial Jobless Claims (DEC 8) Medium 225k 231k
19:00 U.S Monthly Budget Statement (NOV) Medium -$197.0b -$100.5b
23:50 Japan Tankan Large Manufacturing Index (4Q) Medium 18 19

Euro

The single currency gained in yesterday’s session. European Union leaders will ditch proposals to use a euro zone budget for economic stabilization and restrict any funds to long-standing EU goals of convergence among their economies and increasing competitiveness, draft summit conclusions showed yesterday. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1313 and a high of 1.1386 before closing the day around 1.1366 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen posted small gains yesterday. On the release front, Japanese Core Machinery Orders rebounded with a gain of 7.6%, but fell short of the forecast of 10.2%. Japanese PPI continues to lose ground, and dropped from 2.9% to 2.3%. In the U.S, consumer inflation reports softened in November, but matched the estimates. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 113.12 and a high of 113.50 before closing the day around 113.26 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound rallied amid speculation Theresa May can survive the vote of confidence against her, lowering the chances of a hard Brexit leader winning control of the ruling Conservative party. Sterling rose by more than 1% against the dollar and by 0.8% against the euro yesterday after Tory rebels triggered the vote on May’s leadership of their party. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.2475 and a high of 1.2670 before closing the day at 1.2625 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar strengthened against its U.S. counterpart, boosted by higher oil prices and investor optimism over trade negotiations between the United States and China. U.S. President Donald Trump, in an interview with Reuters, said that trade talks with Beijing were under way by telephone, with more meetings likely between U.S and Chinese officials.  Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.3320 and a high of 1.3395 before closing the day at 1.3348 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar rose along with global equities as tentative signs of easing Sino-US trade tensions whetted risk appetite. A gauge of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan jumped 0.9 per cent while US stock futures were upbeat too. Risk appetite got a boost after U.S President Donald Trump said trade talks with Beijing were already underway, with more meetings likely among US and Chinese officials. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7196 and a high of 0.7236 before closing the day at 0.7217 in the New York session.

 

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 50 and lies below the neutral zone. In general, the pair has gained 0.38%.

 

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bullish tone and MACD is indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 41 reading and lies below the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has gained 1.00%.

  

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is also indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 48 reading and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.09%.

 

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and below 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bearish tone and MACD is issuing a bullish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 61 and lies above the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.67%.

 

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bullish stance and MACD is indicating a bearish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 37 and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 1.15%.

 

Appendix

  

FOREX Closing Prices for December 12, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.13153 1.1386 1.13137 1.13669 0.0051
USD/JPY 113.356 113.502 113.121 113.265 -0.0900
GBP/USD 1.2485 1.26704 1.24753 1.26256 0.0139
USD/CHF 0.9931 0.99637 0.99112 0.99331 0.0002
USD/CAD 1.339 1.33951 1.332 1.33485 -0.0039
EUR/JPY 128.29 128.842 128.275 128.764 0.4910
GBP/JPY 141.536 143.421 141.497 142.992 1.4210
CHF/JPY 114.111 114.362 113.796 113.994 -0.1190
AUD/JPY 81.628 82.029 81.589 81.736 0.0750
EUR/GBP 0.90612 0.90673 0.89668 0.90005 -0.0061
EUR/CHF 1.12397 1.12952 1.12325 1.1292 0.0053
GBP/CHF 1.24002 1.258 1.23961 1.25432 0.0142

  

 

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1253 1.1283 1.1325 1.1356 1.1397 1.1428 1.1470
USD/JPY 112.71 112.92 113.09 113.30 113.47 113.68 113.85
GBP/USD 1.2315 1.2395 1.2510 1.2590 1.2706 1.2786 1.2901
USD/CHF 0.9856 0.9884 0.9908 0.9936 0.9961 0.9989 1.0013
USD/CAD 1.3239 1.3279 1.3314 1.3355 1.3389 1.3430 1.3464
EUR/JPY 127.85 128.06 128.41 128.63 128.98 129.19 129.55
GBP/JPY 139.93 140.71 141.85 142.64 143.78 144.56 145.70
CHF/JPY 113.17 113.48 113.74 114.05 114.31 114.62 114.87
AUD/JPY 81.10 81.34 81.54 81.78 81.98 82.22 82.42
EUR/GBP 0.8855 0.8911 0.8956 0.9012 0.9056 0.9112 0.9157
EUR/CHF 1.1189 1.1211 1.1251 1.1273 1.1314 1.1336 1.1377
GBP/CHF 1.2249 1.2323 1.2433 1.2506 1.2617 1.2690 1.2801

 

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

12 Dic 2018

Daily Market View

Daily Market View

Wednesday, December 12, 2018
          U.S Stock Market

 

DJIA S & P 500 NASDAQ
24414 2640.50 6714.75
+0.47% +0.54% +0.70%

U.S stocks recouped losses to trade higher yesterday in a volatile session as investors weighted mounting political tension in the nation’s capital against renewed optimism over U.S-China trade talks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 25 points, or 0.1%, while the S&P 500 index gained 5 points, or 0.2% and the NASDAQ climbed 20 points, or 0.3%. A contentious meeting between President Donald Trump and Democratic leaders Chuck Schumer and Nancy Pelosi over border security, with Trump threatening to shut down government, battered already fragile sentiment, sending stocks lower at midday. Equities subsequently moved back into positive territory. Stocks had charged higher at the opening bell after the U.S. and China launched formal trade talks with a phone call. The initial conversation included Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, U.S Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Chinese vice Premier Liu He, where they discussed changes to fundamental Chinese economic policies.

 

Major Economic Releases for Today
Period Event GMT Forecast Previous

oct

Japan Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) 04:30 0.8% -1.1%

oct

Euro-Zone Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY) 10:00 0.8% 0.9%

dec

U.S MBA Mortgage Applications 12:00   2.0%

nov

U.S Consumer Price Index (YoY) 13:30 2.2% 2.5%

nov

U.S Consumer Price Index Ex Food and Energy (YoY) 13:30 2.2% 2.1%

nov

U.S Real Avg Weekly Earnings (YoY) 13:30   0.9%

nov

U.S Real Avg Hourly Earnings (YoY) 13:30   0.7%

dec

DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories 15:30   -7323k

nov

U.S Monthly Budget Statement 19:00 -$197.0b -$100.5b
Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones fell 0.22%. The best performers of the session were Nike Inc., which rose 1.46% or 1.06 points to trade at 73.57 at the close. Meanwhile, Verizon Communications Inc. added 1.00% or 0.58 points to end at 58.85 and Procter & Gamble Company was up 0.95% or 0.88 points to 93.91 in late trade. The worst performers of the session were The Travelers Companies Inc., which fell 1.65% or 2.03 points to trade at 120.97 at the close. Boeing Co declined 1.32% or 4.32 points to end at 322.03 and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. was down 1.14% or 2.03 points to 176.80.

 

NASDAQ 100

The NASDAQ index added 0.16%. The top performers were Draper Oakwood Technology Acquisition Inc. which rose 60.09% to 10.23, Myos Rens Technology Inc. which was up 58.88% and Corcept Therapeutics Incorporated which gained 32.28% to close at 17.170. The worst performers were Destination Maternity Corporation which was down 24.94% to 3.01 in late trade, SeaChange International Inc. which lost 22.47% to settle at 1.38 and Ocean Power Technologies Inc. which was down 21.57% to 0.320 at the close.

 

Oil

Oil prices rose yesterday, recovering some of the previous session’s losses with the help of a slightly weaker dollar and an outage hurting Libyan production. Yesterday’s recovery in global equities eased some pressure on oil, but the U.S stock market turned negative around midday. Crude futures pared gains as stocks fell. U.S crude futures rose 65 cents, or 1.3 percent, to $51.65 a barrel, after earlier rising more than 2 percent to $52.43. Global stocks have fallen by more than 5 percent so far this month on worries about the impact of a U.S trade dispute with China on economic growth. Any slowdown would hurt oil demand. Yesterday’s dip in the U.S Dollar offered some respite. A weaker dollar makes crude cheaper for holders of other currencies. A further boost came from a shutdown in production in Libya, where the National Oil Company (NOC) declared force majeure on Monday on exports from the El Sharara oilfield, the country’s biggest, which was seized last weekend by a militia group.

 

Precious and Base Metals

Gold firmed yesterday as expectations that the U.S Federal Reserve may slow its interest rate hike trajectory next year weighed on the dollar and stoked interest in bullion, which as a non-yielding asset tends to suffer from rising rates. Spot gold was up 0.3 percent at $1,247.68 per ounce. It touched its highest since July 11 at $1,250.55 in the prior session. U.S. gold futures were 0.3 percent higher at $1,253.10 per ounce. Fed funds futures pricing has been reducing the market expectations for hikes over the next 18 months and that has been coming through in a slightly softer dollar and a stronger gold price. As real interest rates in the U.S. approach a neutral level, we think the Fed is going to get incrementally cautious and won’t be hiking rates in such a metronomic fashion. In light of that, we think prices could rally back into the high $1,200s. The U.S Federal Reserve is widely expected to raise rates at its Dec. 18-19 meeting, but the market is focusing on how much further it might lift rates next year. Based on prices of Fed fund futures, traders now see a 73 percent chance of a rate hike next week, and just a 49 percent chance of a further hike by the end of next year. Investors also kept a close eye on developments surrounding Britain’s departure from the European Union after the country’s prime minister postponed a vote on her deal. Postponing the vote – probably until mid-January – means that the UK government has even less time for the entire Brexit procedure. Most importantly, it means continued uncertainty, which should keep demand for gold at a high level. Meanwhile, hedge funds and money managers trimmed their net short positions in Comex gold contracts in the week to Dec. 4, data showed on Monday. There remains significant scope for the market to further increase long positions and to further reduce short positions. A weaker dollar, driven by moderating Fed policy, could provide the market with the necessary impetus.

 

Traditional Agricultures

Soybean futures turned higher yesterday as traders’ anticipated potential Chinese purchases of U.S agricultural products, and shrugged off a bearish monthly global soy inventories report from the U.S Department of Agriculture.

 

Futures Settlement Price Tuesday, December 11, 2018
Instrument Contract Open High Low Settlement Net Change
DJIA DJM18 24480 24821 24229 24414 -73
S & P 500 SPM18 2643.75 2677.75 2621 2640.5 -2.5
NASDAQ 100 NDM18 6694.5 6808.5 6650.75 6714.75 15.5
Hang Seng HSH18 25653 25857 25561 25713 3
Nikkei 225 NKH18 21255 21255 20990 21070 -10
FTSE 100 FTH18 6778.5 6859 6742 6831 62.5
Gold GCJ18 1250 1254.8 1245.7 1248.1 -1.4
Silver SIK18 1462 1481 1459.5 1464 -4.5
Copper HGK18 273.25 278.05 272.6 276.35 3.3
Crude Oil CLK18 50.86 52.39 50.67 51.93 1.06
Wheat WK18 524.25 528.75 517.25 520.5 -4.5
Soybeans SK18 907.75 916.75 905.75 914.75 5.25
Corn CK18 383 385.5 380.75 384.5 1

 

 

Daily Swings  (The Pivot Levels)
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
DJM18 23563 23896 24155 24488 24747 25080 25339
SPM18 2558.33 2589.67 2615.08 2646.42 2671.83 2703.17 2728.58
NDM18 6483.08 6566.92 6640.83 6724.67 6798.58 6882.42 6956.33
HSH18 25268 25414 25564 25710 25860 26006 26156
NKH18 20690 20840 20955 21105 21220 21370 21485
FTH18 6645.33 6693.67 6762.33 6810.67 6879.33 6927.67 6996.33
GCJ18 1235.17 1240.43 1244.27 1249.53 1253.37 1258.63 1262.47
SIK18 1433.83 1446.67 1455.33 1468.17 1476.83 1489.67 1498.33
HGK18 267.83 270.22 273.28 275.67 278.73 281.12 284.18
CLK18 49.22 49.94 50.94 51.66 52.66 53.38 54.38
WK18 504.08 510.67 515.58 522.17 527.08 533.67 538.58
SK18 897.08 901.42 908.08 912.42 919.08 923.42 930.08
CK18 376.92 378.83 381.67 383.58 386.42 388.33 391.17

 

 Source: – News & Quotes (Courtesy:  Reuters)                                                                    

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

 

12 Dic 2018

FOREX Newsletter

FOREX Newsletter

December 12, 2018

 

Pulse of the Market

·      The core producer price index in U.S increased more than expected in November

·      German Chancellor Angela Merkel said the European Union would not renegotiate its Brexit deal

·      Japanese indicators continue to have a bad week as manufacturing data also disappointed

·      The Canadian Dollar edged higher against the U.S Dollar as oil prices and stocks rose

The U.S Dollar inched higher yesterday, as a leading indicator of inflation rose, increasing pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise rates. The U.S Dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of six major currencies, rose 0.13% to 97.31. The core producer price index increased more than expected in November. The Federal Reserve keeps its eye on this data because, when producers pay more for goods, they are more likely to pass price increases on to the consumer. The Dollar has been under pressure recently amid expectations that the Fed will pause its rate of interest rate hikes and trade tensions between the U.S and China. Meanwhile, the pound pared back earlier gains after German Chancellor Angela Merkel said the European Union would not renegotiate its Brexit deal. UK Prime Minister Theresa May pushed back a planned Parliament vote on the draft of the Brexit deal in the hopes of striking a better deal with Brussels. The Dollar was slightly lower against the safe-haven Japanese yen. In times of uncertainty, investors tend to invest in the Japanese yen, which is considered a safe asset during periods of risk aversion. Japanese indicators continue to have a bad week. The BSI Manufacturing Index slipped to 5.5 in the third quarter, down from 6.5 in the second quarter. Preliminary Machine Tool Orders nosedived, with a reading of -16.5 percent. This was the sharpest decline since July 2016. Earlier this week, Final GDP in the third quarter declined 0.6%. This was the second decline this year. On an annualized basis, the economy declined by 2.5% in Q3, after a gain of 2.8% in the second quarter. This was the worst downturn since 2014. The Euro declined yesterday, with EUR/USD dipping 0.24% to 1.132. The Euro could strengthen should European Central Bank President Mario Draghi stick this week to indications that monetary policy could be tightened next year, just as the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate path is thrown into doubt.

 

 

Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
04:30 Japan Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) (OCT) Medium   0.8% -1.1%
10:00 Euro-Zone Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY) (OCT) Medium   0.8% 0.9%
12:00 U.S MBA Mortgage Applications (DEC 7) Medium     2.0%
13:30 Canada Teranet/National Bank HPI (YoY) (NOV) Low     2.8%
13:30 U.S Consumer Price Index (YoY) (NOV) High   2.2% 2.5%
13:30 U.S Consumer Price Index Ex Food and Energy (YoY) (NOV) High   2.2% 2.1%
13:30 U.S Real Avg. Weekly Earnings (YoY) (NOV) Medium     0.9%
13:30 U.S Real Avg. Hourly Earnings (YoY) (NOV) Medium     0.7%
15:30 DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (DEC 7) Medium     -7323k
15:30 U.S DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory (DEC 7) Low     1729k
15:30 DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (DEC 7) Low     1699k
19:00 U.S Monthly Budget Statement (NOV) Medium   -$197.0b -$100.5b
23:50 Japan Buying Foreign Bonds (Yen) (DEC 7) Low     ¥1053.5b
23:50 Japan Buying Foreign Stocks (Yen) (DEC 7) Low     -¥75.0b

Euro

The single currency fell in yesterday’s trading session. Euro zone authorities are scrutinizing proposals for a synthetic common bond aimed at strengthening banks’ immunity to financial shocks but the process will take time given the asset’s complexity, ECB governing council member Philip Lane said yesterday. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1304 and a high of 1.1398 before closing the day around 1.1315 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen ended almost unchanged yesterday, after posting considerable gains earlier in the session. On the release front, Japanese manufacturing data disappointed. In the U.S, PPI came in at 0.1%, above the estimate of 0.0%. Core PPI dropped to 0.3%, but beat the estimate of 0.1%. Later in the day, the U.S releases CPI reports. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 112.98 and a high of 113.44 before closing the day around 113.35 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound rebound came to an abrupt halt yesterday after a report that colleagues of Prime Minister Theresa May believed they had sufficient numbers to mount a no-confidence vote in her leadership. The British pound fell to a new 20-month low, down more than half a percent on the day, after earlier trading above $1.26. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.2478 and a high of 1.2637 before closing the day at 1.2486 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar edged higher against its U.S counterpart yesterday as oil prices and stocks rose amid hopes of an easing in the China-U.S. trade war. Canada is a major exporter of commodities, including oil, and runs a current account deficit so its economy could benefit from an improved outlook for the global flow of trade or capital.   Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.3375 and a high of 1.3421 before closing the day at 1.3388 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar gained yesterday. While risk-sentiment has been weaker since last week due to fears that US-China trade tensions are worsening rather than lessening, the risk correlated Aussie strengthened yesterday. Rather than this being caused by any positive data, the Australian Dollar’s gains were mainly caused by weakness in rivals Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7182 and a high of 0.7223 before closing the day at 0.7202 in the New York session.

 

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is issuing a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 46 and lies below the neutral zone. In general, the pair has lost 0.32%.

 

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish tone and MACD is also indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 33 reading and lies below the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.56%.

 

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 47 reading and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.25%.

 

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and below 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 71 and lies above the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has gained 0.25%.

  

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish stance and MACD is also indicating a bearish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 25 and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.31%.

 

Appendix

  

FOREX Closing Prices for December 11, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.13534 1.13989 1.13049 1.13156 -0.0039
USD/JPY 113.32 113.447 112.988 113.355 0.0410
GBP/USD 1.25625 1.26374 1.24783 1.24864 -0.0074
USD/CHF 0.99028 0.99366 0.98611 0.99308 0.0029
USD/CAD 1.33981 1.34219 1.33759 1.3388 -0.0007
EUR/JPY 128.686 128.958 128.153 128.273 -0.4130
GBP/JPY 142.385 142.907 141.489 141.571 -0.8040
CHF/JPY 114.414 114.608 113.984 114.113 -0.3010
AUD/JPY 81.494 81.778 81.203 81.661 0.2040
EUR/GBP 0.90345 0.90677 0.90044 0.90613 0.0022
EUR/CHF 1.12432 1.12561 1.12228 1.12392 -0.0005
GBP/CHF 1.24395 1.24809 1.23914 1.24009 -0.0039

 

 

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1187 1.1246 1.1281 1.1340 1.1375 1.1434 1.1469
USD/JPY 112.62 112.80 113.08 113.26 113.54 113.72 114.00
GBP/USD 1.2272 1.2375 1.2431 1.2534 1.2590 1.2693 1.2749
USD/CHF 0.9807 0.9834 0.9882 0.9910 0.9958 0.9985 1.0033
USD/CAD 1.3323 1.3349 1.3369 1.3395 1.3415 1.3441 1.3461
EUR/JPY 127.16 127.66 127.96 128.46 128.77 129.27 129.57
GBP/JPY 139.65 140.57 141.07 141.99 142.49 143.41 143.91
CHF/JPY 113.24 113.61 113.86 114.24 114.49 114.86 115.11
AUD/JPY 80.74 80.97 81.32 81.55 81.89 82.12 82.47
EUR/GBP 0.8958 0.8981 0.9021 0.9044 0.9085 0.9108 0.9148
EUR/CHF 1.1189 1.1206 1.1223 1.1239 1.1256 1.1273 1.1289
GBP/CHF 1.2278 1.2335 1.2368 1.2424 1.2457 1.2514 1.2547

 

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

11 Dic 2018

FOREX Newsletter

 

FOREX Newsletter

 December 11, 2018

 

Pulse of the Market

·      The Greenback strengthened versus a basket of currencies yesterday that includes the Euro

·      Sentix research group said its investor sentiment index for the euro zone slid to -0.3 from 8.8

·      British Prime Minister Theresa May postponed a parliamentary vote on her Brexit deal

·      Japan’s current account surplus dropped sharply to JPY 1.21 trillion, down from 1.33 trillion

 

The U.S Dollar was higher yesterday, as the pound tumbled amid reports that UK Prime Minister is cancelling a vote on Tuesday on the Brexit draft proposal. The pound slid to its weakest level in nearly 1-1/2 years against the dollar on Monday as British Prime Minister Theresa May postponed a parliamentary vote on her Brexit deal, rekindling doubts about U.K.’s departure from the European Union in March. The greenback enjoyed a mild recovery following its steepest weekly drop versus a basket of currencies in three months last week, as traders reduced their expectations that the Federal Reserve might pause its interest rate hikes sooner than previously thought. On Sunday Chinese officials summoned the U.S. ambassador to Beijing to protest the arrest of the chief financial officer of Chinese electronics giant Huawei, Meng Wanzhou, in Canada. U.S officials are investigating her role in the company’s operations in Iran. The arrest of Meng has added to tensions between the two biggest economic countries in the world. U.S President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed on Dec. 1 to a 90-day truce on trade tariffs. Still, U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said on Sunday there is a “hard deadline”, noting U.S.-China trade negotiations need to reach a successful end by March 1. The euro hit a three-month peak versus the pound at 90.47 pence. It was last up 0.77 percent at 90.22 pence. The Japanese yen was down in yesterday’s trading session. On the release front, Japan’s current account surplus dropped sharply to JPY 1.21 trillion, down from 1.33 trillion. This missed the estimate of JPY 1.29 trillion. Japanese Final GDP declined 0.6%, missing the estimate of 0.5%. In the U.S, JOLTS Job Openings improved to 7.08 million, but was well short of the estimate of 7.22 million. Today, Japan releases manufacturing data, while the U.S releases Producer Price Index reports. The new trading week started with dismal Japanese data, as Final GDP in the third quarter declined 0.6%.

 

 

Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
00:30 Australia NAB Business Confidence (NOV) Medium     4
00:30 Australia House Price Index (YoY) (3Q) Low   -2.0% -0.6%
06:00 Japan Machine Tool Orders (YoY) (NOV) Medium     -0.7%
09:30 U.K Claimant Count Rate (NOV) Medium     2.7%
09:30 U.K Jobless Claims Change (NOV) Medium     20.2k
09:30 U.K Average Weekly Earnings (3M/YoY) (OCT) Medium   3.0% 3.0%
09:30 U.K Employment Change 3M/3M (OCT) Medium   25k 23k
10:00 German ZEW Survey Current Situation (DEC) Medium   55 58.2
10:00 German ZEW Survey Expectations (DEC) High   -25 -24.1
10:00 Euro-Zone ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) (DEC) High     -22
11:00 U.S NFIB Small Business Optimism (NOV) Low   107 107.4
13:30 U.S PPI Final Demand (YoY) (NOV) Low   2.5% 2.9%
19:15 RBNZ’s Orr at Parliament Committee on Annual Report High      
23:50 Japan Machine Orders (YoY) (OCT) Medium   5.0% -7.0%

 

Euro

The single currency fell as investor morale in the euro zone slumped to a four-year low in December as fears about trade conflicts, Italy’s budget row with the European Union and Brexit led to a collapse in sentiment, a survey showed. Sentix research group said its investor sentiment index for the euro zone slid to -0.3 from 8.8 in November. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1349 and a high of 1.1441 before closing the day around 1.1354 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen was down yesterday. On the release front, Japan’s current account surplus dropped sharply to JPY 1.21 trillion, down from 1.33 trillion. This missed the estimate of JPY 1.29 trillion. Japanese Final GDP declined 0.6%, missing the estimate of 0.5%. In the U.S, JOLTS Job Openings improved to 7.08 million. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 112.22 and a high of 113.34 before closing the day around 113.31 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound slid to its weakest level in nearly 1-1/2 years against the Dollar yesterday as British Prime Minister Theresa May postponed a parliamentary vote on her Brexit deal, rekindling doubts about U.K’s departure from the European Union in March. The greenback enjoyed a mild recovery following its steepest weekly drop. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.2504 and a high of 1.2757 before closing the day at 1.2560 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar edged lower against its U.S. counterpart yesterday as oil prices declined and the spread between Canada’s two- and five-year yields turned negative for the first time since September 2007. The five-year yield fell 0.6 basis points below the two-year yield. U.S crude prices were down 2.3 per cent at $51.4 a barrel.  Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.3290 and a high of 1.3414 before closing the day at 1.3395 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar continues to slide, falling to the lowest level in a month yesterday. A combination of heightened risk aversion and soft economic data from Australia, the United States and China has taken its toll on the Aussie dollar so far in December. Chinese CPI and PPI also undershot market expectations. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7176 and a high of 0.7224 before closing the day at 0.7185 in the New York session.

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is issuing a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 47 and lies below the neutral zone. In general, the pair has gained 0.15%.

 

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish tone and MACD is also indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 34 reading and lies below the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.81%.

 

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 44 reading and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.45%.

 

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and below 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 70 and lies above the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has gained 1.00%.

 

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish stance and MACD is also indicating a bearish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 24 and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 1.32%.

 

Appendix

  

FOREX Closing Prices for December 10, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.13923 1.14413 1.13491 1.13546 -0.0050
USD/JPY 112.624 113.349 112.221 113.314 0.6590
GBP/USD 1.27124 1.27576 1.25049 1.256 -0.0180
USD/CHF 0.99014 0.99098 0.98664 0.99015 0.0008
USD/CAD 1.33265 1.34143 1.32906 1.33953 0.0078
EUR/JPY 128.326 128.915 128.151 128.686 0.1960
GBP/JPY 143.193 143.683 141.15 142.375 -1.1690
CHF/JPY 113.714 114.454 113.565 114.414 0.5790
AUD/JPY 80.999 81.497 80.691 81.457 0.3680
EUR/GBP 0.89604 0.90855 0.89572 0.90389 0.0090
EUR/CHF 1.12835 1.13058 1.1234 1.12437 -0.0041
GBP/CHF 1.25894 1.26079 1.23769 1.24396 -0.0166

 

 

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1230 1.1289 1.1322 1.1382 1.1414 1.1474 1.1506
USD/JPY 111.45 111.83 112.57 112.96 113.70 114.09 114.83
GBP/USD 1.2205 1.2355 1.2457 1.2608 1.2710 1.2860 1.2963
USD/CHF 0.9832 0.9849 0.9875 0.9893 0.9919 0.9936 0.9962
USD/CAD 1.3195 1.3243 1.3319 1.3367 1.3443 1.3490 1.3567
EUR/JPY 127.49 127.82 128.25 128.58 129.02 129.35 129.78
GBP/JPY 138.59 139.87 141.12 142.40 143.66 144.94 146.19
CHF/JPY 112.95 113.26 113.83 114.14 114.72 115.03 115.61
AUD/JPY 80.13 80.41 80.93 81.22 81.74 82.02 82.55
EUR/GBP 0.8841 0.8899 0.8969 0.9027 0.9097 0.9156 0.9226
EUR/CHF 1.1145 1.1189 1.1217 1.1261 1.1288 1.1333 1.1360
GBP/CHF 1.2111 1.2244 1.2342 1.2475 1.2573 1.2706 1.2804

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

11 Dic 2018

Daily Market View

Daily Market View

Tuesday, December 11, 2018
          U.S Stock Market

 

DJIA S & P 500 NASDAQ
24487 2643.00 6699.25
-0.19% -0.16% +0.44%

U.S stocks dipped in yesterday’s mid trading session as the impact of a postponed Brexit vote in the UK and concerns over interest rates and tepid economic growth weighed on markets. Mounting fears that a loosely-held trade truce between the US and China could unravel in the wake of the arrest of Meng Wanzhou, the CFO of the smart phone maker Huawei, who is accused of working to dodge US sanctions on Iran also cast a pall over markets. In other news, Apple shares slipped by 2% but went on to recover to break-even levels at $168.74 on the back of an unfavorable legal ruling. In the latest twist in the long-standing legal battle between Apple and Qualcomm, a Chinese court has called for Qualcomm to receive an injunction against the iPhone maker, which bans some iPhone models in China. Apple is fighting to overturn the ruling via an appeal. As the mid trading session got rolling, the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index had pared back its losses somewhat, while the S&P 500 shed 10.4 points. After briefly turning positive, the tech-laden NASDAQ also lost 4 points.

 

Major Economic Releases for Today
Period Event GMT Forecast Previous

nov

Australia NAB Business Confidence 00:30   4

nov

Japan Machine Tool Orders (YoY) 06:00   -0.7%

nov

U.K Claimant Count Rate 09:30   2.7%

nov

U.K Jobless Claims Change 09:30   20.2k

dec

German ZEW Survey Expectations 10:00 -25 -24.1

dec

Euro-Zone ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) 10:00   -22

nov

U.S NFIB Small Business Optimism 11:00 107 107.4

nov

U.S PPI Final Demand (YoY) 13:30 2.5% 2.9%

 

RBNZ’s Orr at Parliament Committee on Annual Report 19:15    
Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones added 0.14%. The best performers of the session were Microsoft Corporation, which rose 2.64% or 2.77 points to trade at 107.59 at the close. Meanwhile, Intel Corporation added 2.10% or 0.97 points to end at 47.21 and International Business Machines was up 1.50% or 1.79 points to 121.13 in late trade. The worst performers of the session were JPMorgan Chase & Co, which fell 1.87% or 1.93 points to trade at 101.36 at the close. Exxon Mobil Corp declined 1.42% or 1.10 points to end at 76.54 and Nike Inc. was down 1.13% or 0.83 points to 72.51.

 

 

NASDAQ 100

The NASDAQ index added 0.74%. The top performers on the NASDAQ Composite were Xperi Corp which rose 43.74% to 18.37, Innovate Biopharmaceuticals Inc. which was up 38.39% to settle at 3.10 and NutriSystem Inc. which gained 27.72% to close at 43.68. The worst performers were Tivity Health Inc. which was down 31.91% to 27.65 in late trade, Draper Oakwood Technology Acquisition Inc Class A which lost 28.82% to settle at 6.43 and Axovant Sciences Ltd which was down 27.49% to 1.24 at the close.

 

Oil

Oil prices fell 3 percent yesterday, echoing the weakness in global stock markets as the focus returned to demand growth concerns. Crude prices erased the gains they made on Friday following an OPEC-led decision to cut output. Losses in Europe and Asia extended to Wall Street on new signs the U.S-China trade spat was impacting world economic growth. The market was also weighed down by confusion stemming from British Prime Minister’s postponement of a parliamentary vote on her Brexit deal and sluggish data from the world’s largest economies including the U.S, China, Japan and Germany in recent days. U.S West Texas Intermediate crude ended yesterday’s session down $1.61, or 3.1 percent, at $51 a barrel. Prices rose on Friday after OPEC and some non-OPEC producers including heavyweight Russia said they would cut oil supply by 1.2 million barrels per day. A steep increase in the pace of crude supply growth this year has made a number of analysts wary about the prospect of demand being sufficient to mop up extra oil.

 

Precious and Base Metals

Gold held near a five-month peak yesterday as a slide in global shares pushed investors to seek shelter in bullion, while waning expectations of U.S interest rate hikes next year also underpinned the metal’s appeal. Spot gold inched down 0.1 percent to $1,246.58 per ounce, having touched $1,250.55, a peak since July 11, earlier in the session. U.S gold futures were steady at $1,252.20 per ounce. Losses in global stock markets snowballed on Monday on worries over slowing growth and fears that a rise in U.S.-China tensions could torpedo chances of a trade deal. It’s really encouraging that gold has risen to $1,250 level at the same time when equities were soft and this really underpins gold’s role as a safe haven. However, capping gold’s gains was a slightly firmer dollar, which consolidated losses after last week posting its biggest weekly drop in more than three months as weak U.S data lowered expectations of more interest rate increases. The U.S. Federal Reserve is widely expected to raise interest rates at its Dec. 18-19 meeting, but the focus is on how many rate hikes will follow in 2019. Gold tends to gain when rate hike expectations recede because lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion and weigh on the dollar, in which it is priced. The $1,250 pivot remains in play and should create a support for gold. Gold last week posted its best weekly gain since March and has recovered about 8 percent from 19-month lows hit in mid-August. The main trend remains bullish, with investor interest still on the rise as shown by the exchange-traded fund (ETF) sector too, and expectations for a dovish Fed in 2019-2020 are certainly boosting the appeal of the precious metal. Holdings in SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed ETF, rose 0.20 percent to 759.73 tonnes on Friday. Among other precious metals, spot silver slipped 0.9 percent to $14.49 per ounce, while palladium was up 0.1 percent at $1,225.31.

 

 

Traditional Agricultures

Soybean and wheat futures fell in yesterday’s trading session on positioning ahead of a monthly U.S Department of Agriculture crop supply/demand report and uncertainty about the ongoing U.S-China trade dispute.

 

 

 

Futures Settlement Price Monday, December 10, 2018
Instrument Contract Open High Low Settlement Net Change
DJIA DJM18 24314 24515 23892 24487 74
S & P 500 SPM18 2625 2648.25 2582.5 2643 8.25
NASDAQ 100 NDM18 6595.25 6714.25 6535.25 6699.25 79.25
Hang Seng HSH18 25763 25829 25547 25710 -362
Nikkei 225 NKH18 21150 21240 21060 21080 -455
FTSE 100 FTH18 6736 6818 6712 6768.5 9.5
Gold GCJ18 1255.5 1255.6 1246.7 1249.5 -2.8
Silver SIK18 1469.5 1470 1468.5 1468.5 0
Copper HGK18 274 275.45 271.45 273.05 -2.65
Crude Oil CLK18 52.36 52.77 50.5 50.87 -1.83
Wheat WK18 529.75 530 524.25 525 -6
Soybeans SK18 912.25 916 908.25 909.5 -6.5
Corn CK18 384.5 385.5 383 383.5 -1.75

 

 

 

DJM18 23458 23675 24081 24298 24704 24921 25327
SPM18 2535.17 2558.83 2600.92 2624.58 2666.67 2690.33 2732.42
NDM18 6405.92 6470.58 6584.92 6649.58 6763.92 6828.58 6942.92
HSH18 25280 25413 25562 25695 25844 25977 26126
NKH18 20833 20947 21013 21127 21193 21307 21373
FTH18 6608.33 6660.17 6714.33 6766.17 6820.33 6872.17 6926.33
GCJ18 1236.70 1241.70 1245.60 1250.60 1254.50 1259.50 1263.40
SIK18 1466.50 1467.50 1468.00 1469.00 1469.50 1470.50 1471.00
HGK18 267.18 269.32 271.18 273.32 275.18 277.32 279.18
CLK18 47.72 49.11 49.99 51.38 52.26 53.65 54.53
WK18 517.08 520.67 522.83 526.42 528.58 532.17 534.33
SK18 898.75 903.50 906.50 911.25 914.25 919.00 922.00
CK18 380.00 381.50 382.50 384.00 385.00 386.50 387.50

 

 Source: – News & Quotes (Courtesy:  Reuters)                                                                    

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

 

 

10 Dic 2018

Daily Market View

 

 Daily Market View

 Monday, December 10, 2018
          U.S Stock Market

 

DJIA S & P 500 NASDAQ
24413 2634.75 6620.00
-2.24% -2.33% -3.05%

Stocks in the U.S wrapped up their worst week since March on trade war fears, a disappointing jobs report and a flattening yield curve that is often the red flag for an upcoming recession. Oil extended its rebound into a second week after OPEC agreed to reduce production. The S&P 500 Index fell 2.33 percent Friday led by Technology. Utilities outperformed, followed by Energy amid the news of OPEC’s agreement. On a weekly basis, the index dropped 4.6%, its worst setback since March, when the trade war began. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 2.24 percent and 4.5 percent for the week. The NASDAQ fell 3.05 percent, making it the clear underperformer. Technically it executed a Death Cross last week. The other key issue that unnerved investors was the U.S Treasury curve as the 3-year rates exceeded 5-year rates, raising fears of an inverted yield curve. The U.S added 155,000 new jobs last month. While this number significantly missed the 200,000 estimates, unemployment held steady at 3.7 percent.

 

 

Major Economic Releases for Today
Period Event GMT Forecast Previous

nov

Japan Bankruptcies (YoY) 04:30   -0.4%

nov

Switzerland Unemployment Rate 06:45   2.4%

oct

German Trade Balance 07:00   18.4b

oct

U.K Trade Balance 09:30   -£27m

oct

U.K Industrial Production (YoY) 09:30   0.0%

oct

U.K Gross Domestic Product (MoM) 09:30   0.0%

nov

Canada Housing Starts 13:15   205.9k

oct

Canada Building Permits (MoM) 13:30   0.4%

oct

U.S JOLTS Job Openings 15:00   7009
Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2.24% on Friday. The best performers of the session on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were Johnson & Johnson, which fell 0.33% or 0.48 points to trade at 145.43 at the close. Meanwhile, Chevron Corp fell 0.36% or 0.42 points to end at 115.49 and Coca-Cola Company was down 0.59% or 0.29 points to 49.09 in late trade. The worst performers of the session were Intel Corporation, which fell 4.40% or 2.13 points to trade at 46.24 at the close. Cisco Systems Inc. declined 4.03% or 1.95 points to end at 46.44 and Microsoft Corporation was down 4.00% or 4.37 points to 104.82.

 

 

NASDAQ 100

The tech heavy NASDAQ index lost 3.05% on Friday. The top performers on the NASDAQ Composite were Domo Inc. which rose 30.52% to 20.40, Uxin Ltd which was up 24.47% to settle at 4.68 and Cronos Group Inc. which gained 21.72% to close at 12.7200. The worst performers were Viveve Medical Inc. which was down 27.42% to 1.3500 in late trade, United Natural Foods Inc. which lost 24.58% to settle at 14.88 and Akorn Inc. which was down 23.79% to 4.26 at the close.

 

 

Oil

Oil traders are likely to stay focused on global crude supplies in the week ahead, after members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies agreed to curb production starting in January. OPEC announced Friday that it will reduce overall production among its members by 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) during the first six months of 2019 in an effort to stave off a global glut in supplies and prop up prices. The producer club will curb output by 0.8 million bpd from October levels, while non-OPEC allies contribute an additional 0.4 million bpd of cuts, in a move to be reviewed at a meeting in April. Oil futures jumped sharply on Friday in reaction to the new production cut agreement. West Texas Intermediate crude surged $1.12, or roughly 2.2%, to close at $52.61 a barrel by close of trade on the New York Mercantile Exchange. For the week, WTI rose about 3.3%. Oil has taken a beating in recent weeks, with prices dropping more than 30% from their highs in early October, as swelling global inventories depressed sentiment.

 

 

Precious and Base Metals

Gold hit a five-month peak on Friday as the dollar slid following weaker-than-expected U.S jobs data, which added to expectations the U.S. Federal Reserve may go slow on interest rate hikes next year. Spot gold gained 0.7 percent to $1,245.74 per ounce, having hit $1,246.72 per ounce earlier, its highest since July 13. With a rise of nearly 2 percent this week, gold looked set to post its best gain since the week of March 23. U.S gold futures were also 0.6 percent higher at $1,251.30 per ounce. The non-farm payroll data came out lower than expected. It is a negative pick that is causing people to hedge a little bit more in gold and any shorts are probably covering and adding few longs to the market. The dollar eased against a basket of currencies on Friday after data showed U.S job growth slowed in November and monthly wages increased less than expected, suggesting some moderation in economic activity. Interest rate futures suggested traders see not more than one rate increase from the Fed next year, compared with previous expectations for possibly two rate hikes. With increased volatility and geopolitical risk, macro asset allocation is becoming more gold-positive again while we believe much of the dollar’s upward move is now behind us with rate hike expectations dropping. Gold, which is considered a safe investment during times of financial, economic and geopolitical uncertainty, has recovered about 7 percent from 19-month lows hit in mid-August. At this point it looks like the price of gold has a strong foundation at these levels and should remain in a bullish mode the rest of the year. Meanwhile, spot palladium rose 1.2 percent to $1,223.50 per ounce and was set to post its second straight weekly gain. The auto catalyst metal, however, drifted further away from an all-time high of $1,263.56 hit this week. Silver gained 0.7 percent to $14.57 per ounce and was headed for a weekly rise of more than 2 percent.

 

 

 

 

 

Traditional Agricultures

Soybean futures firmed for the fifth time in six sessions on Friday on solid weekly export sales data and short-covering ahead of the weekend as the market waited for signs that China may soon resume purchases from the United States. Corn also advanced and wheat climbed to a 5-1/2 week high.

 

 

Futures Settlement Price Friday, December 07, 2018
Instrument Contract Open High Low Settlement Net Change
DJIA DJM18 24921 25112 24295 24413 -494
S & P 500 SPM18 2694.25 2709.5 2623 2634.75 -56.75
NASDAQ 100 NDM18 6836.5 6855.75 6594.5 6620 -205.75
Hang Seng HSH18 26259 26303 26004 26072 -82
Nikkei 225 NKH18 21520 21660 21415 21535 145
FTSE 100 FTH18 6783.5 6869 6732.5 6759 -24
Gold GCJ18 1242.9 1252.8 1242.3 1252.3 9.5
Silver SIK18 1454 1470 1450 1468.5 16
Copper HGK18 275 277.5 274.15 275.7 0.9
Crude Oil CLK18 51.73 54.19 50.57 52.7 1.02
Wheat WK18 516 531.75 515 531 15.75
Soybeans SK18 910.25 917.5 907 916 7
Corn CK18 382 385.5 382 385.25 2.75

 

 

DJM18 23284 23790 24101 24607 24918 25424 25735
SPM18 2515.50 2569.25 2602.00 2655.75 2688.50 2742.25 2775.00
NDM18 6263.17 6428.83 6524.42 6690.08 6785.67 6951.33 7046.92
HSH18 25651 25827 25950 26126 26249 26425 26548
NKH18 21168 21292 21413 21537 21658 21782 21903
FTH18 6568.17 6650.33 6704.67 6786.83 6841.17 6923.33 6977.67
GCJ18 1234.97 1238.63 1245.47 1249.13 1255.97 1259.63 1266.47
SIK18 1435.67 1442.83 1455.67 1462.83 1475.67 1482.83 1495.67
HGK18 270.72 272.43 274.07 275.78 277.42 279.13 280.77
CLK18 47.16 48.87 50.78 52.49 54.40 56.11 58.02
WK18 503.33 509.17 520.08 525.92 536.83 542.67 553.58
SK18 899.00 903.00 909.50 913.50 920.00 924.00 930.50
CK18 379.50 380.75 383.00 384.25 386.50 387.75 390.00

 

 Source: – News & Quotes (Courtesy:  Reuters)                                                                    

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

 

 

 

 

10 Dic 2018

FOREX Newsletter

FOREX Newsletter

December 10, 2018

 

Pulse of the Market

·      The primary theme for the Dollar right now is risk aversion, which can be positive and negative

·      This week’s U.S inflation and retail sales report will be just as important as NFP

·      Keep an eye on US-China headlines as they will also influence risk appetite

·      Canada’s economy is on fire with a record breaking 94.1K jobs created in the month of November

The last month of the year kicked off with a bang but not in the way that many of us would have hoped. Equity markets sold off across the globe and in the world of currencies, the U.S and Australian Dollars were the worst performers. A convergence of negative news pressed both currencies lower but most of the concerns centered on China, which is why AUD fell the hardest. The week started with optimism after President Trump and President Xi reached a trade truce but things went south quickly when the U.S arrested Huawei’s CFO. Stocks crashed and President Trump tried to stem the slide by saying he had no knowledge of the arrest and that trade talks with China are going very well. Investors are skeptical and in a headline driven trading environment they are taking everything at face value. As we muddle through the conflicting headlines, what is clear is that uncertainty will remain in the weeks ahead as investors wait to see if the Huawei arrest really affects US-China trade talks. There’s also a big Brexit vote this week and the ECB meeting. Between these events and a continued focus on China, December will remain a jittery month for currencies. The primary theme in the FX market right now is risk aversion, which can be both positive and negative for the U.S Dollar. When markets sell off globally, money usually flows into the U.S Dollar and the Japanese Yen. With stocks poised for further losses, demand for the yen has been and should remain strong. However demand for the U.S Dollar depends on what is happening in the other currency’s home country. The latest US jobs report is proof that despite the pickup in manufacturing and service sector activity the momentum in the US economy is slowing. Only 155K jobs were created in November versus a forecast for a 198K increase. Payroll growth in October was also revised slightly lower but the concern is wages. Not only did average hourly earnings growth fall short of expectations, rising only 0.2% compared to a forecast of 0.3% but the prior month’s reading was also revised lower to 0.1%. This means that companies are hiring fewer workers, paying them less than expected and allowing them to bill fewer houses.

 

Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
  China New Yuan Loans CNY (NOV) High     697.0b
00:30 Australia Home Loans (MoM) (OCT) Medium     -1.0%
04:30 Japan Bankruptcies (YoY) (NOV) Medium     -0.4%
06:45 Switzerland Unemployment Rate (NOV) Medium     2.4%
07:00 German Trade Balance (OCT) Medium     18.4b
09:30 U.K Trade Balance (OCT) Medium     -£27m
09:30 U.K Industrial Production (YoY) (OCT) Medium     0.0%
09:30 U.K Manufacturing Production (YoY) (OCT) Medium     0.5%
09:30 U.K Gross Domestic Product (MoM) (OCT) Medium     0.0%
13:15 Canada Housing Starts (NOV) Medium     205.9k
13:30 Canada Building Permits (MoM) (OCT) Medium     0.4%
15:00 U.S JOLTS Job Openings (OCT) Low     7009

 

Euro

The single currency gained in Friday’s trading session. Workers in the euro area are seeing the strongest pay gains in a decade, a rare piece of positive economic news for the European Central Bank as it heads toward scaling back extraordinary stimulus. Compensation per employee in the euro area grew an annual 2.5 percent in the third quarter. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1359 and a high of 1.1422 before closing the day around 1.1404 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen pair settled almost unchanged on Friday and marginally down for the week. The fundamental background suggests that the pair could break lower this week, as equities are set to remain under pressure, while the benchmark US 10-year Treasury yield fell from 3.02% to 2.85% last week. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 112.53 and a high of 112.90 before closing the day around 112.65 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound ended the week marginally below the previous week’s close, after UK political uncertainty dragged Sterling lower. In the coming week GBP/USD is forecast to continue its trend lower. The main data release for the U.S Dollar is inflation data out on Wednesday because of its impact on interest rates, a primary driver of currencies. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.2709 and a high of 1.2791 before closing the day at 1.2740 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar strengthened on Friday after domestic data showing a record increase in jobs caught the foreign exchange market by surprise, pressuring investors who had been short the loonie. The Canadian economy added 94,100 jobs in November on higher full-time hiring, and the unemployment rate dipped to a new all-time low of 5.6 per cent.  Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.3251 and a high of 1.3398 before closing the day at 1.3317 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar has fallen during most of the week but has found support at the crucial 0.72 level. The fact that it has broken above a major downtrend line and held above there is a bullish sign. I think this is due to the US and the Chinese calling a bit of a “cease-fire” in the trade war. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7196 and a high of 0.7240 before closing the day at 0.7197 in the New York session.

 

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is issuing a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 48 and lies below the neutral zone. In general, the pair has gained 0.27%.

 

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish tone and MACD is also indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 40 reading and lies below the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.33%.

   

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 42 reading and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.49%.

  

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and below 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 62 and lies above the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has gained 0.60%.

 

 Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish stance and MACD is also indicating a bearish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 32 and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.65%.

 

Appendix

  

FOREX Closing Prices for December 07, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.13743 1.14222 1.1359 1.14043 0.0028
USD/JPY 112.648 112.909 112.535 112.655 0.0000
GBP/USD 1.27803 1.2791 1.27092 1.27403 -0.0040
USD/CHF 0.99233 0.99414 0.9888 0.98935 -0.0033
USD/CAD 1.33785 1.33983 1.32514 1.33175 -0.0063
EUR/JPY 128.178 128.65 128.114 128.49 0.3400
GBP/JPY 144.008 144.198 143.21 143.544 -0.4780
CHF/JPY 113.473 113.874 113.38 113.835 0.3780
AUD/JPY 81.5 81.655 81.066 81.089 -0.4030
EUR/GBP 0.8895 0.89659 0.88934 0.89494 0.0054
EUR/CHF 1.12921 1.13077 1.12816 1.12843 -0.0009
GBP/CHF 1.26893 1.26987 1.25919 1.26059 -0.0083

 

  

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1305 1.1332 1.1368 1.1395 1.1431 1.1458 1.1495
USD/JPY 112.12 112.33 112.49 112.70 112.86 113.07 113.24
GBP/USD 1.2621 1.2665 1.2703 1.2747 1.2784 1.2829 1.2866
USD/CHF 0.9820 0.9854 0.9874 0.9908 0.9927 0.9961 0.9981
USD/CAD 1.3100 1.3176 1.3247 1.3322 1.3393 1.3469 1.3540
EUR/JPY 127.65 127.88 128.19 128.42 128.72 128.95 129.26
GBP/JPY 142.12 142.66 143.10 143.65 144.09 144.64 145.08
CHF/JPY 113.02 113.20 113.52 113.70 114.01 114.19 114.51
AUD/JPY 80.30 80.68 80.89 81.27 81.47 81.86 82.06
EUR/GBP 0.8834 0.8864 0.8907 0.8936 0.8979 0.9009 0.9052
EUR/CHF 1.1249 1.1265 1.1275 1.1291 1.1301 1.1317 1.1327
GBP/CHF 1.2459 1.2525 1.2566 1.2632 1.2672 1.2739 1.2779

 

 

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

 

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

07 Dic 2018

FOREX Newsletter

FOREX Newsletter

December 07, 2018

 

Pulse of the Market

·      The U.S Dollar weakened against major peers yesterday as U.S Treasury yields tumbled

·      Market sentiment was dampened by disappointing ADP payrolls data and higher jobless claims

·      Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz said the economy was weaker than forecast

·      The Australian Dollar slipped for a third straight day on fears of renewed US-China trade tensions

The U.S Dollar was lower yesterday as the arrest of a Huawei executive spooked investors and disappointing jobs data dampened sentiment. The U.S Dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of six major currencies, fell 0.46% to 96.56. Meng Wanzhou, the chief financial officer at the Chinese smartphone company Huawei was arrested in Canada on an extradition request by the U.S, which had been investigating whether or not she violated sanctions against Iran. The arrest happened just one week after President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping agreed to a 90-day trade truce. Investors fear it could derail any potential trade talks between the two countries. Japanese Yen gained after the news as the Yen tends to benefit during geopolitical or financial stress as Japan is the world’s biggest creditor nation and there is an assumption that Japanese investors will repatriate funds should a crisis materialize. Market sentiment was also dampened by disappointing ADP payrolls data and higher than expected jobless claims. Data showed private employers hired fewer workers than expected in November, pointing to a moderation in the pace of job growth. The U.S trade deficit jumped to a 10-year high in October as soybean exports dropped further and imports of consumer goods rose to a record high, suggesting the Trump administration’s tariff-related measures to shrink the trade gap likely have been ineffective. Sterling was 0.42 percent higher on the day even as worry over how a British Parliament vote on Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit deal next week remained in focus. The Canadian dollar fell against its U.S counterpart to a nearly 18-month low, as Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz said the economy was weaker than forecast and predicted low oil prices would cut growth. Poloz, speaking a day after the central bank kept interest rates on hold, repeated that more tightening would be needed.

 

Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
00:00 Japan Labor Cash Earnings (YoY) (OCT) Medium   1.0% 1.1%
05:00 Japan Leading Index CI (OCT) Medium   104.9 104.3
07:00 German Industrial Production n.s.a. and w.d.a. (YoY) (OCT) Medium   2.1% 0.8%
09:30 U.K BoE/TNS Inflation Next 12 Mths (NOV) High     3.0%
10:00 Euro-Zone Government Expenditure (QoQ) (3Q) Medium   0.3% 0.4%
10:00 Euro-Zone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY) (3Q) Medium   1.7% 1.7%
13:30 Canada Unemployment Rate (NOV) High   5.8% 5.8%
13:30 Canada Net Change in Employment (NOV) High   10.0k 11.2k
13:30 U.S Change in Non-farm Payrolls (NOV) High   198k 250k
13:30 U.S Change in Private Payrolls (NOV) Medium   200k 246k
13:30 U.S Unemployment Rate (NOV) High   3.7% 3.7%
13:30 U.S Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (NOV) Medium   3.1% 3.1%
15:00 U.S U. of Mich. Sentiment (DEC) High   97 97.5
18:00 Baker Hughes U.S Rig Count (DEC 7) Medium     1076
20:00 U.S Consumer Credit (OCT) Medium   $15.000b $10.923b

Euro

The single currency gained yesterday against the U.S Dollar as the European Commission has adopted a recommendation to promote the wider use of the euro in international energy agreements and transactions. The aim is to strengthen the role of the single currency on the international financial system. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1319 and a high of 1.1411 before closing the day around 1.1376 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen pair weakened yesterday as U.S Treasury yields tumbled and traders scaled back expectations on the number of rate hikes the Federal Reserve would implement amid weakening economic data and heightened market volatility. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield hit a three-month trough of 2.845 percent. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 112.21 and a high of 113.18 before closing the day around 112.65 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound posted gains in yesterday’s session. There were no major indicators in the U.K. In the U.S, job employment numbers were soft. ADP nonfarm payrolls plunged to 179 thousand, well off the estimate of 196 thousand. This was the lowest level since May. Unemployment claims edged lower to 231 thousand. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.2697 and a high of 1.2808 before closing the day at 1.2780 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar fell against its U.S counterpart yesterday to a nearly 18-month low, as Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz said the economy was weaker than forecast and predicted low oil prices would cut growth. Poloz’s comments were likely to reinforce market expectations that the pace of future rate hikes will ease off.  Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.3352 and a high of 1.3442 before closing the day at 1.3380 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar slipped for a third straight session as fears of renewed US-China trade tensions spooked stock markets, while investors toyed with the idea of possible rate cuts at home. Australian two-year bond yields dived to their lowest in nine months at 1.93 per cent. Yesterday’s helping of domestic data did nothing to alter the mood Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7189 and a high of 0.7272 before closing the day at 0.7221 in the New York session.

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is issuing a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 45 and lies below the neutral zone. In general, the pair has lost 0.19%.

 

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish tone and MACD is also indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 41 reading and lies below the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.06%.

 

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 44 reading and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.91%.

  

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and below 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bearish tone and MACD is issuing a bullish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 57 and lies above the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.13%.

 

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish stance and MACD is also indicating a bearish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 38 and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.10%.

 

Appendix

  

FOREX Closing Prices for December 06, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.13428 1.14112 1.13196 1.13761 0.0033
USD/JPY 113.183 113.189 112.213 112.655 -0.5200
GBP/USD 1.27316 1.28084 1.26977 1.27802 0.0049
USD/CHF 0.99751 0.99882 0.98927 0.99262 -0.0049
USD/CAD 1.33545 1.34423 1.3352 1.33802 0.0028
EUR/JPY 128.386 128.422 127.649 128.15 -0.2430
GBP/JPY 144.126 144.144 143.225 144.022 -0.0870
CHF/JPY 113.434 113.481 112.872 113.457 0.0350
AUD/JPY 82.24 82.285 80.899 81.492 -0.7490
EUR/GBP 0.89069 0.89259 0.88849 0.88958 -0.0012
EUR/CHF 1.13147 1.13199 1.12786 1.12929 -0.0023
GBP/CHF 1.27011 1.2718 1.26481 1.2689 -0.0013

 

 

 

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1235 1.1277 1.1327 1.1369 1.1418 1.1461 1.1510
USD/JPY 111.21 111.71 112.18 112.69 113.16 113.66 114.13
GBP/USD 1.2605 1.2651 1.2716 1.2762 1.2827 1.2873 1.2937
USD/CHF 0.9788 0.9840 0.9883 0.9936 0.9979 1.0031 1.0074
USD/CAD 1.3250 1.3301 1.3341 1.3392 1.3431 1.3482 1.3521
EUR/JPY 126.95 127.30 127.73 128.07 128.50 128.85 129.27
GBP/JPY 142.53 142.88 143.45 143.80 144.37 144.72 145.29
CHF/JPY 112.45 112.66 113.06 113.27 113.67 113.88 114.28
AUD/JPY 79.45 80.17 80.83 81.56 82.22 82.94 83.60
EUR/GBP 0.8838 0.8861 0.8879 0.8902 0.8920 0.8943 0.8961
EUR/CHF 1.1233 1.1256 1.1274 1.1297 1.1316 1.1338 1.1357
GBP/CHF 1.2582 1.2615 1.2652 1.2685 1.2722 1.2755 1.2792

 

 

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

 

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

07 Dic 2018

Daily Market View

Daily Market View

Friday, December 07, 2018
          U.S Stock Market

 

DJIA S & P 500 NASDAQ
24907 2691.50 6825.75
-1.57% -1.41% -0.61%

A rout on Wall Street deepened yesterday after news of the arrest of a top executive at Chinese telecommunications giant Huawei stoked fears it could hinder progress in U.S.-China trade talks. The Dow dropped more than 600 points, or 2.4 percent, in early trading. The decline represents a continuation of Tuesday’s 800-point plunge in the blue-chip index before trading was closed Wednesday in observance of a national day of mourning for former President George H.W. Bush. Other indices also lost ground yesterday. The S&P 500 index fell more than 1 percent, while the tech-heavy NASDAQ index slipped 0.8 percent. The news of Huawei CFO Meng Wanzhou’s arrest sent shares sharply lower on fears of rising tensions between China and the U.S. The incident heightens concerns that the trade truce between President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping won’t hold, pushing the two economic powers into a trade war. Meanwhile, oil prices dropped as OPEC countries gathered yesterday for a two-day meeting.

 

 

Major Economic Releases for Today
Period Event GMT Forecast Previous

nov

BoE/TNS Inflation Next 12 Mths 09:30   3.0%

3Q

Euro-Zone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY) 10:00 1.7% 1.7%

nov

Canada Unemployment Rate 13:30 5.8% 5.8%

nov

Canada Net Change in Employment 13:30 10.0k 11.2k

nov

U.S Change in Non-farm Payrolls 13:30 198k 250k

nov

U.S Unemployment Rate 13:30 3.7% 3.7%

nov

U.S Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) 13:30 3.1% 3.1%

dec

U.S U. of Mich. Sentiment 15:00 97 97.5

oct

U.S Consumer Credit 20:00 $15.000b $10.923b
Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.32%. The best performers of the session on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were Cisco Systems Inc., which rose 2.20% or 1.04 points to trade at 48.39 at the close. Meanwhile, International Business Machines added 1.90% or 2.31 points to end at 123.91 and Visa Inc. was up 1.74% or 2.41 points to 141.05 in late trade. The worst performers of the session were Boeing Co, which fell 3.09% or 10.60 points to trade at 331.90 at the close. JPMorgan Chase & Co declined 1.90% or 2.04 points to end at 105.19 and Exxon Mobil Corp was down 1.31% or 1.04 points to 78.39.

NASDAQ 100

The NASDAQ index gained 0.42%. The top performers on the NASDAQ were TheStreet Inc. which rose 35.53% to 2.060, Uxin Ltd which was up 31.47% to settle at 3.76 and Remark Holdings Inc. which gained 31.39% to close at 1.800. The worst performers were Conatus Pharmaceuticals Inc. which was down 56.89% to 1.940 in late trade, Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp which lost 25.36% to settle at 3.150 and Hexindai Inc. which was down 25.33% to 2.24 at the close.

Oil

Oil prices tumbled about 3 percent yesterday as OPEC reportedly agreed to cut production, but ended its closely-watched meeting without a decision on how much crude the cartel will take off the market. OPEC agreed in principle to cut production during a meeting at its headquarters in Vienna, Austria yesterday, two sources told Reuters. However, the cartel delayed a decision on specific quotas until it consults Russia today. OPEC began capping supply in partnership with Russia and several other nations last year in order to end a punishing downturn in oil prices. However, Moscow has not yet specified how much it will cut production during the fresh round of supply caps that is now under consideration. U.S crude oil ended yesterday’s session down $1.40, or 2.7 percent, at $51.49, bouncing from a session low of $50.08. Oil prices briefly pared losses after government data showed U.S crude stockpiles fell by 7.3 million barrels in the week through Nov. 30. Oil prices have fallen more than 30 percent over the last two months.

 

 

Precious and Base Metals

Gold prices edged lower yesterday in range-bound trade as investors booked profits and the dollar strengthened, while palladium fell from a record high hit in the previous session. Spot gold fell 0.2 percent to $1,235.57 per ounce, while U.S gold futures were 0.1 percent lower at $1,240.8 per ounce. Gold has been near key levels of $1,240, so there might be some technical-level profit-taking. A meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and U.S nonfarm payroll data expected on Friday are keeping gold investors on guard. U.S Federal Reserve policymakers are to gather at a Dec. 18-19 meeting, at which the central bank is widely expected to raise interest rates. Although a rate hike is already priced in, markets will be closely watching the meeting for clues on rate-hike timings in 2019. The dollar held steady as a spike in risk aversion pressured equities and U.S. Treasury yields. The spread between the two-year and five-year Treasury yields inverted this week and the two-year/10-year spread was at its flattest in more than a decade amid a sharp fall in long-term rates. A yield curve inversion indicates higher borrowing cost in short term, so for safe-haven assets in the longer run it’s going to be very positive. Meanwhile, palladium prices stayed near gold’s after outshining the yellow metal for the first time since 2002 on Wednesday, with prices soaring by around 50 percent in less than four months to record levels. Spot palladium dropped 2.3 percent to $1,215.43 per ounce, still hovering near its record high hit in the previous session. The market now awaits today’s U.S nonfarm payrolls data for November, which is expected to show unemployment remains at 3.7 percent. Investors are seen adopting a cautious stance ahead of the U.S jobs report which could offer insight over the health of the U.S labor force. Amongst other metals, silver fell 0.9 percent to $14.37 per ounce.

 

Traditional Agricultures

Soybean futures fell for the first time in five sessions yesterday. Corn followed soybeans lower, although declines were largely offset by solid export demand. Wheat was pressured by muted export demand as rival suppliers such as Russia continue to challenge U.S grain in global markets.

 

Futures Settlement Price Thursday, December 06, 2018
Instrument Contract Open High Low Settlement Net Change
DJIA DJM18 25132 25135 24253 24907 -249
S & P 500 SPM18 2713 2713.75 2621 2691.5 -26.25
NASDAQ 100 NDM18 6834.25 6853.75 6629.75 6825.75 -22.5
Hang Seng HSH18 26487 26487 26001 26154 -605
Nikkei 225 NKH18 21740 21745 21220 21390 -490
FTSE 100 FTH18 6859 6879 6669.5 6783 -132
Gold GCJ18 1243.5 1249.6 1239.8 1242.8 0.4
Silver SIK18 1457 1457.5 1440.5 1452.5 -3.5
Copper HGK18 277.05 277.15 270.8 274.8 -2.4
Crude Oil CLK18 52.9 53.26 50.05 51.68 -1.21
Wheat WK18 517.75 517.75 509.75 515.25 -2.25
Soybeans SK18 910.25 911.75 896.5 909 -4.25
Corn CK18 383.75 384.25 379.75 382.5 -1.5

 

Daily Swings  (The Pivot Levels)
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
DJM18 23513 23883 24395 24765 25277 25647 26159
SPM18 2544.33 2582.67 2637.08 2675.42 2729.83 2768.17 2822.58
NDM18 6461.75 6545.75 6685.75 6769.75 6909.75 6993.75 7133.75
HSH18 25455 25728 25941 26214 26427 26700 26913
NKH18 20633 20927 21158 21452 21683 21977 22208
FTH18 6465.83 6567.67 6675.33 6777.17 6884.83 6986.67 7094.33
GCJ18 1228.73 1234.27 1238.53 1244.07 1248.33 1253.87 1258.13
SIK18 1425.83 1433.17 1442.83 1450.17 1459.83 1467.17 1476.83
HGK18 265.00 267.90 271.35 274.25 277.70 280.60 284.05
CLK18 46.86 48.45 50.07 51.66 53.28 54.87 56.49
WK18 502.75 506.25 510.75 514.25 518.75 522.25 526.75
SK18 884.50 890.50 899.75 905.75 915.00 921.00 930.25
CK18 375.58 377.67 380.08 382.17 384.58 386.67 389.08

 

 Source: – News & Quotes (Courtesy:  Reuters)                                                                    

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