14 Nov 2018

FOREX Newsletter

 

FOREX Newsletter

November 14, 2018

 

Pulse of the Market

·      Investor confidence has eroded by bitter trade tensions between the United States and China

·      The euro edged up from a 16-month low yesterday as some investors consolidated positions

·      Sterling increased, despite worry that the UK could leave the European Union without a deal

·      The Canadian dollar fell following a drop in the price of gold and oil weighed on the market

The U.S Dollar was lower yesterday, but still remained near a 16-month high in anticipation of Federal Reserve rate hikes. The U.S Dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of six major currencies, fell 0.29% to 97.10, but remained near Monday’s high of 97.52. The greenback continued to push higher amid expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise rates in December and beyond, as the U.S economy gains strength. Meanwhile trade tensions eased, amid news that China’s trade negotiator could head to Washington ahead of a meeting between U.S President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping at the G20 summit in Argentina later this month. White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow confirmed that the two countries were in talks yesterday, saying negotiations were “very positive,” Reuters reported. The euro and sterling rose on Tuesday following comments from a British official that signaled Britain and the European Union are close to clinching an agreement for the nation to leave the economic bloc as negotiators seek to avoid missing a deadline. A stronger Euro and sterling spurred profit-taking in the dollar, which reached a 16-month peak against a basket of currencies on Monday. Uncertainty over the terms of Brexit has bogged down both currencies as a deal is required to keep business open between the EU and the world’s fifth-biggest economy. The euro’s gain was limited by concerns about Italy’s budget proposals and downbeat German investor sentiment data. Sterling reversed much of Monday’s loss against the dollar. The Can adian dollar was lower yesterday, as a drop in the price of gold and oil weighed on the market. Oil prices were down yesterday after United States President Donald Trump pressured OPEC to not cut supply to prop up the market. Nervousness and uncertainty on the part of investors is never good news for the Canadian dollar, as the minor currency is dependent on risk appetite.

 

IMP Actual Forecast Prior
00:30 Australia Wage Price Index (YoY) (3Q) Medium   2.3% 2.1%
02:00 China Retail Sales (YoY) (OCT) Medium   9.2% 9.2%
02:00 China Industrial Production (YoY) (OCT) Medium   5.8% 5.8%
04:30 Japan Industrial Production (YoY) (SEP) Medium     -2.9%
07:00 German Gross Domestic Product n.s.a. (YoY) (3Q) High   1.2% 2.3%
09:30 U.K Consumer Price Index (YoY) (OCT) High   2.5% 2.4%
09:30 U.K House Price Index (YoY) (SEP) Medium   3.2% 3.2%
10:00 Euro-Zone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY) (3Q) High   1.7% 1.7%
10:00 Euro-Zone Employment (YoY) (3Q) Medium     1.5%
12:00 U.S MBA Mortgage Applications (NOV 9) Medium     -4.0%
13:30 U.S Consumer Price Index (YoY) (OCT) High   2.5% 2.3%
13:30 U.S Real Avg Hourly Earning (YoY) (OCT) Medium     0.5%
23:00 U.S Fed’s Powell to Discuss Economy at Dallas Fed Event High      
23:50 Japan Housing Loans (YoY) (3Q) Medium     2.7%

 

Euro

The single currency edged up from a 16-month low on Tuesday as some investors consolidated positions but concerns about Italy’s budget proposals, poor German data and Brexit negotiations sapped broad appetite for the single currency. The euro has been pegged back by a series of negative headlines but it’s still struggling to gain momentum.  Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1215 and a high of 1.1292 before closing the day around 1.1288 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen pair traded just below a 16-month high versus a basket of peers, benefiting from safe-haven flows as investors shunned riskier assets because of political uncertainties in Europe and fears of a global economic slowdown. Investor confidence has been eroded by bitter trade tensions between the United States and China. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 113.56 and a high of 114.12 before closing the day around 113.79 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound gained sharply after the UK and EU agreed on the text for a Brexit divorce deal. Prime Minister Theresa May will present the draft withdrawal agreement to her senior ministers on Wednesday for discussion and then decide on the next steps, her office said in a statement that confirmed several British media reports. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.2839 and a high of 1.3045 before closing the day at 1.2972 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar edged held near the multi-month low touched on Monday. Canada exports many commodities, including oil, and runs a current account deficit, so its economy could benefit from an improved outlook for the flow of trade and capital. U.S crude prices were down 2.1 per cent at $58.68 a barrel, extending their recent decline. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.3212 and a high of 1.3261 before closing the day at 1.3231 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar benefited from the development and is now trading as the strongest ones. On the other hand, Yen and Dollar turned softer, paring Monday’s strong gains. Though for the week so far, New Zealand Dollar is the strongest, followed by US Dollar and Canadian. Asian stocks gapped sharply lower follow steep fall in US equities yesterday. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7162 and a high of 0.7222 before closing the day at 0.7194 in the New York session.

 

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is issuing a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 43 and lies below the neutral zone. In general, the pair has gained 0.64%.

 

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish tone and MACD is indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 53 reading and lies above the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has gained 0.90%.

  

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 60 reading and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.59%.

  

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bullish tone and MACD is issuing a bearish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 34 and lies below the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.33%.

  

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish stance and MACD is indicating a bullish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 57 and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.54%.

 

Appendix

  

FOREX Closing Prices for November 13, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.12163 1.12921 1.12158 1.12889 0.0072
USD/JPY 113.831 114.128 113.561 113.797 -0.0200
GBP/USD 1.28473 1.30454 1.28395 1.29725 0.0125
USD/CHF 1.01074 1.01268 1.00676 1.00687 -0.0039
USD/CAD 1.32436 1.32612 1.32129 1.32317 -0.0013
EUR/JPY 127.702 128.73 127.479 128.498 0.8180
GBP/JPY 146.255 148.701 145.968 147.57 1.3200
CHF/JPY 112.582 113.061 112.424 112.983 0.4070
AUD/JPY 81.619 82.342 81.354 82.115 0.4790
EUR/GBP 0.87279 0.87403 0.86542 0.87005 -0.0029
EUR/CHF 1.13387 1.13852 1.13339 1.13653 0.0027
GBP/CHF 1.29877 1.31503 1.29731 1.30567 0.0070

   

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1163 1.1189 1.1239 1.1266 1.1315 1.1342 1.1392
USD/JPY 112.96 113.26 113.53 113.83 114.10 114.40 114.66
GBP/USD 1.2654 1.2747 1.2860 1.2952 1.3065 1.3158 1.3271
USD/CHF 0.9989 1.0029 1.0049 1.0088 1.0108 1.0147 1.0167
USD/CAD 1.3161 1.3187 1.3209 1.3235 1.3258 1.3284 1.3306
EUR/JPY 126.49 126.98 127.74 128.24 128.99 129.49 130.24
GBP/JPY 143.39 144.68 146.13 147.41 148.86 150.15 151.59
CHF/JPY 111.95 112.19 112.58 112.82 113.22 113.46 113.86
AUD/JPY 80.54 80.95 81.53 81.94 82.52 82.93 83.51
EUR/GBP 0.8570 0.8612 0.8656 0.8698 0.8742 0.8784 0.8829
EUR/CHF 1.1286 1.1310 1.1338 1.1361 1.1389 1.1413 1.1440
GBP/CHF 1.2793 1.2883 1.2970 1.3060 1.3147 1.3237 1.3324

 

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

13 Nov 2018

 Daily Market View

Daily Market View

Tuesday, November 13, 2018
          U.S Stock Market

 

DJIA S & P 500 NASDAQ
25386 2728.50 6836.00
-1.65% -1.29% -2.01%

U.S stock indexes dropped, led by technology shares, as Apple Inc. tumbled on signs of weak iPhone demand. The dollar rose, and the pound slid as the U.K’s premier fought to save her Brexit divorce plan. Oil fluctuated. The S&P 500 Index and Dow Jones Industrial Average started the week lower, while the NASDAQ 100 dropped for the third day and the Russell 2000 small-cap benchmark erased its gains for the year. Major suppliers for Apple fell as investors fretted about one of the most important product lines in the technology sector, and U.S chip stocks followed suit. General Electric Co. extended a rout after its chief executive officer’s attempt to reassure investors fell flat. California utilities plunged as wildfires swept the state. The Dollar rallied versus most of its major peers. Crude oil had advanced as OPEC and its allies started laying the groundwork to cut supply in 2019. Investors have a lot on their plate right now, from deciding whether the recent earnings season was a peak to watching Brussels.

 

Major Economic Releases for Today
Period Event GMT Forecast Previous

oct

Australia NAB Business Confidence 00:30   6

oct

German Consumer Price Index (YoY) 07:00 2.5% 2.5%

oct

U.K Claimant Count Rate 09:30   2.6%

oct

U.K Jobless Claims Change 09:30   18.5k

sep

U.K Average Weekly Earnings (3M/YoY) 09:30 3.0% 2.7%

nov

German ZEW Survey Expectations 10:00 -26 -24.7

nov

Euro-Zone ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) 10:00   -19.4

oct

U.S Monthly Budget Statement 19:00 -$103.5b -$63.2b

3Q

Japan Gross Domestic Product Annualized s.a. (QoQ) 23:50 -0.9% 3.0%
Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 2.32%. The best performers of the session on the Dow Jones were Verizon Communications Inc., which rose 0.44% or 0.26 points to trade at 58.72 at the close. Meanwhile, Coca-Cola Company added 0.38% or 0.19 points to end at 49.87 and Procter & Gamble Company was up 0.31% or 0.29 points to 92.70 in late trade. The worst performers of the session were Goldman Sachs Group Inc., which fell 7.46% or 16.60 points to trade at 206.05 at the close. Apple Inc. declined 5.04% or 10.30 points to end at 194.17 and Home Depot Inc. was down 3.53% or 6.56 points to 179.43.

 

 

 

NASDAQ 100

The NASDAQ index lost 2.78%. The top performers on the NASDAQ were Apptio Inc. which rose 51.51% to 37.65, Magnegas Applied Technology Solutions Inc. which was up 28.93% to settle at 0.361 and Globus Maritime Ltd which gained 24.60% to close at 7.8500. The worst performers were Infinity Pharmaceuticals Inc. which was down 45.42% to 1.31 in late trade, Hudson Technologies Inc. which lost 40.33% to settle at 0.722 and Lumentum Holdings Inc. which was down 32.98% to 37.50 at the close.

 

 

Oil

U.S crude prices turned negative as U.S President Donald Trump said he hoped there would be no oil output reductions, after Saudi Arabia said OPEC was considering cutting supply next year, citing softening demand. U.S crude fell 18 cents a barrel to trade at $60.01 a barrel. If the decline holds, the contract is on track for its eleventh consecutive daily loss, the most on record since trading on the contract began in 1983. “Hopefully, Saudi Arabia and OPEC will not be cutting oil production,” Trump wrote on Twitter. “Oil prices should be much lower based on supply!” U.S crude turned negative and extended losses after the tweet. Oil prices had strengthened earlier in the session, after Saudi Arabia said the OPEC and its partners believed demand was softening enough to warrant an output cut of 1 million barrels per day next year. Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said OPEC and its allies agree that technical analysis shows a need to cut oil supply next year by around 1 million bpd from October levels.

 

 

Precious and Base Metals

Gold fell for a seventh straight session yesterday, hitting its lowest in a month as the dollar jumped to 16-month highs on the back of political uncertainty in Europe and the U.S. Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance on interest rates. Spot gold fell 0.3 percent to $1,206.22 per ounce, having touched a one-month low of $1,203.36 earlier in the session. U.S gold futures edged 0.1 percent lower to $1,207.9 per ounce. The main driver has been some renewed dollar strengthening due to political uncertainty in UK and Italy. Gold is facing a bit of an uphill struggle due to the dollar strength. The metal posted its biggest weekly drop since August last week after the Fed reaffirmed its monetary tightening stance, seen as a negative for non-yielding bullion. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was up 0.5 percent yesterday. The currency benefited from a broader move away from riskier assets due to U.S-Sino trade tensions, China’s economic slowdown, Brexit uncertainty, and the standoff between Rome and the European Union over Italy’s budget plan. It was also underpinned by the Fed’s hawkish stance on interest rates. The U.S central bank last week indicated it planned to raise rates next month and remained on track for two more potential hikes by mid-2019 on the back of an upbeat economy and rising wage pressures. Higher U.S rates tend to boost the dollar and Treasury yields, adding pressure on greenback-denominated, non-yielding bullion. It seems like the bears are back in control. The precious metal has fallen more than 11 percent from its April peak, with investors piling into the dollar as the U.S.-China trade war unfolded against a background of higher U.S interest rates. Meanwhile, hedge funds and money managers cut their net short position in gold by 8,136 contracts to 37,486 contracts in the week to Nov. 6, data showed on Friday. In other precious metals, silver was flat at $14.15 per ounce, having touched its lowest since Sept. 18 at $14.06 in the previous session.

 

 

 

 

Traditional Agricultures

Wheat futures fell to a one-week low on Friday on concerns about export demand and a strengthening Dollar. Corn followed wheat lower on technical selling but soybeans turned higher on firming cash markets.

 

 

Futures Settlement Price Monday, November 12, 2018
Instrument Contract Open High Low Settlement Net Change
DJIA DJM18 25974 26094 25331 25386 -583
S & P 500 SPM18 2778.5 2795.25 2722.25 2728.5 -50.25
NASDAQ 100 NDM18 7026 7103 6825.75 6836 -194.5
Hang Seng HSH18 25447 25748 25447 25548 85
Nikkei 225 NKH18 22130 22320 22035 22245 -40
FTSE 100 FTH18 7140 7154.5 7022.5 7027 -72
Gold GCJ18 1210.5 1211.7 1200.4 1200.5 -7.8
Silver SIK18 1415.5 1416.5 1415 1416 3.5
Copper HGK18 273 273.1 267.7 268.45 0
Crude Oil CLK18 60.89 61.41 58.79 58.98 -1.34
Wheat WK18 501.5 520.25 501 519 17.75
Soybeans SK18 885.75 886.75 879.25 883 -3.25
Corn CK18 368 372 367.75 370.75 1.25

 

 

Daily Swings  (The Pivot Levels)
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
DJM18 24350 24841 25113 25604 25876 26367 26639
SPM18 2629.08 2675.67 2702.08 2748.67 2775.08 2821.67 2848.08
NDM18 6462.92 6644.33 6740.17 6921.58 7017.42 7198.83 7294.67
HSH18 25113 25280 25414 25581 25715 25882 26016
NKH18 21795 21915 22080 22200 22365 22485 22650
FTH18 6849.50 6936.00 6981.50 7068.00 7113.50 7200.00 7245.50
GCJ18 1185.40 1192.90 1196.70 1204.20 1208.00 1215.50 1219.30
SIK18 1413.67 1414.33 1415.17 1415.83 1416.67 1417.33 1418.17
HGK18 261.00 264.35 266.40 269.75 271.80 275.15 277.20
CLK18 55.42 57.11 58.04 59.73 60.66 62.35 63.28
WK18 487.33 494.17 506.58 513.42 525.83 532.67 545.08
SK18 871.75 875.50 879.25 883.00 886.75 890.50 894.25
CK18 364.08 365.92 368.33 370.17 372.58 374.42 376.83

 

 Source: – News & Quotes (Courtesy:  Reuters)                                                                    

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

 

13 Nov 2018

FOREX Newsletter

FOREX Newsletter

November 13, 2018

 

Pulse of the Market

·      The post-FOMC USD upsurge helps regain positive traction in yesterday’s session

·      Sterling fell after reports that May had canceled a cabinet meeting to approve a Brexit deal

·      The euro was under pressure amid an ongoing row between Brussels and Rome

·      The Canadian Dollar was supported in yesterday’s session by a bounce in the price of oil

The U.S Dollar remained near a 16-month high yesterday, as concerns over Brexit and political issues in Italy weighed on the pound and euro. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of six major currencies, surged 0.47% to 97.19, not far from a session high of 97.36, the most since June 2017. The greenback surged amid expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise rates in December and beyond. An equity selloff also helped boost demand for the dollar, as Wall Street opened lower. Still, trading was expected to be slower, with the U.S bond market was closed because of the Veterans Day holiday. The Euro fell to the lowest level in more than sixteen months yesterday as investors continue to bet against the region’s growth prospects amid a budget standoff between Italy’s populist government and European Union officials and the increasing threat of a so-called Hard Brexit from the bloc by the United Kingdom next year. Italy’s parliamentary watchdog warned yesterday that the government’s budget deficit target, which EU officials have already described as an “unprecedented” violation of currency area rules, is unlikely to be met next year as economic growth slows and borrowing increases, throwing the current standoff between Rome and Brussels deeper into crisis. Sterling was pushed lower after reports that Prime Minister Theresa May had cancelled a cabinet meeting to approve a Brexit deal. The move makes it unlikely that a meeting with the European Union will happen by the end of the month to discuss the UK leaving in March. GBP/USD fell 0.59% as traders fear a no-deal Brexit is immediate. The Canadian dollar edged higher against a broadly stronger U.S dollar yesterday, supported by a bounce in the price of oil, but remained close to the multi-month low touched on Friday. The price of oil, one of Canada’s major exports, rose by about 1 per cent yesterday, set for its largest one-day increase in about a month after Saudi Arabia said OPEC and its partners believed demand was softening enough to warrant an output cut of 1 million barrels per day.

 

 

Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
00:30 Australia NAB Business Confidence (OCT) Medium     6
07:00 German Consumer Price Index (YoY) (OCT) Medium   2.5% 2.5%
09:30 U.K Claimant Count Rate (OCT) Medium     2.6%
09:30 U.K Jobless Claims Change (OCT) Medium     18.5k
09:30 U.K Average Weekly Earnings (3M/YoY) (SEP) Medium   3.0% 2.7%
09:30 U.K Employment Change 3M/3M (SEP) Medium   25k -5k
10:00 German ZEW Survey Current Situation (NOV) Medium   65 70.1
10:00 German ZEW Survey Expectations (NOV) High   -26 -24.7
10:00 Euro-Zone ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) (NOV) High     -19.4
11:00 U.S NFIB Small Business Optimism (OCT) Low   108 107.9
19:00 U.S Monthly Budget Statement (OCT) Medium   -$103.5b -$63.2b
23:30 Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence (NOV) Medium     1.0%
23:50 Japan Gross Domestic Product Annualized s.a. (QoQ) (3Q) High   -0.9% 3.0%

 

Euro

The single currency fell to the lowest level in more than sixteen months yesterday as investors continue to bet against the region’s growth prospects amid a budget standoff between Italy’s populist government and European Union officials and the increasing threat of a so-called Hard Brexit from the bloc by the United Kingdom next year. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1214 and a high of 1.1329 before closing the day around 1.1216 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen pair built on its positive momentum further beyond the 114.00 handle and spiked to fresh one-month tops in the last hour, albeit quickly retreated few pips thereafter. After Friday’s brief pause, the pair caught some aggressive bids at the start of a new trading week and the strong up-move was fueled by the ongoing US Dollar bullish momentum. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 113.64 and a high of 114.18 before closing the day around 113.81 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound has endured a torrid start to the new week as Brexit headlines prompt traders to become more cautious on the prospects of the E.U and U.K agreeing a Brexit deal before the end of the year. The currency was in the red against all major competitors as the optimism seen over recent weeks starts to wash away. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.2825 and a high of 1.2944 before closing the day at 1.2848 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar edged higher against a broadly stronger U.S Dollar yesterday, supported by a bounce in the price of oil, but remained close to the multi-month low touched on Friday. The price of oil, one of Canada’s major exports, rose by about 1 per cent yesterday, set for its largest one-day increase in about a month. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.3108 and a high of 1.3247 before closing the day at 1.3244 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar has eased after global growth resurfaced, weighing on risk-sensitive assets including equities. The currency was also dragged down by a broadly stronger US dollar after the US Federal Reserve last week reaffirmed its plans to raise interest rates in December and beyond. A run of disappointing data from China have hurt risk sentiment. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7185 and a high of 0.7235 before closing the day at 0.7190 in the New York session.

 

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is issuing a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 40 and lies below the neutral zone. In general, the pair has lost 1.01%.

 

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish tone and MACD is indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 47 reading and lies below the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.94%.

 

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 58 reading and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.72%.

  

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bullish tone and MACD is issuing a bearish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 41 and lies below the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.07%.

 

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish stance and MACD is indicating a bullish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 50 and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.46%.

 

Appendix

  

FOREX Closing Prices for November 12, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.13249 1.13292 1.12141 1.12168 -0.0120
USD/JPY 113.832 114.189 113.641 113.817 0.0530
GBP/USD 1.29269 1.29449 1.28254 1.2848 -0.0128
USD/CHF 1.00543 1.01096 1.00538 1.01072 0.0054
USD/CAD 1.32034 1.3247 1.31805 1.32445 0.0055
EUR/JPY 128.935 129.164 127.63 127.68 -1.3060
GBP/JPY 147.164 147.555 146.045 146.25 -1.3810
CHF/JPY 113.179 113.319 112.505 112.576 -0.5510
AUD/JPY 82.178 82.479 81.62 81.636 -0.5890
EUR/GBP 0.87585 0.8772 0.87074 0.8729 -0.0006
EUR/CHF 1.1386 1.13971 1.13326 1.13382 -0.0061
GBP/CHF 1.29991 1.30503 1.29505 1.29869 -0.0060

  

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1062 1.1138 1.1178 1.1253 1.1293 1.1368 1.1408
USD/JPY 113.03 113.33 113.58 113.88 114.12 114.43 114.67
GBP/USD 1.2681 1.2753 1.2801 1.2873 1.2920 1.2992 1.3040
USD/CHF 1.0015 1.0034 1.0071 1.0090 1.0127 1.0146 1.0182
USD/CAD 1.3135 1.3158 1.3201 1.3224 1.3268 1.3291 1.3334
EUR/JPY 125.62 126.62 127.15 128.16 128.69 129.69 130.22
GBP/JPY 144.17 145.11 145.68 146.62 147.19 148.13 148.70
CHF/JPY 111.47 111.99 112.28 112.80 113.10 113.61 113.91
AUD/JPY 80.49 81.05 81.34 81.91 82.20 82.77 83.06
EUR/GBP 0.8636 0.8672 0.8700 0.8736 0.8765 0.8801 0.8829
EUR/CHF 1.1250 1.1291 1.1315 1.1356 1.1379 1.1420 1.1444
GBP/CHF 1.2842 1.2896 1.2942 1.2996 1.3041 1.3096 1.3141

 

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

08 Nov 2018

FOREX Newsletter

FOREX Newsletter

November 08, 2018

 

Pulse of the Market

·      The U.S Dollar edged lower yesterday with some investors tiptoeing back into riskier assets

·      The Federal Reserve started its two-day policy meeting yesterday

·      Democrats given greater ability to check any major initiatives from President Donald Trump

·      The British Pound increased to a three-week high, as optimism over Brexit talks helped it rise

The U.S Dollar was lower against other currencies yesterday, as Democrats gained control of the U.S House of Representatives and Republicans remained in charge of the Senate. The split Congress helped boost equities, while putting pressure on the dollar. The results were in line with forecasts and seen as a referendum on U.S. President Donald Trump’s term. Despite the split, Trump tweeted that the elections were a “tremendous success.” The U.S Dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of six major currencies, fell 0.41% to 95.72. Meanwhile the Federal Reserve starts its two-day policy meeting on Wednesday, but is not expected to announce any changes to monetary policy, ahead of a widely-anticipated rate hike in December. Traders pulled out of the safe-haven currency after the election results came in as expected. Some had worried that political instability might ensue if either party had won full control. The euro gained half a percent to trade at $1.148. The single currency changed hands more than 1 percent above this year’s trough of $1.1301 reached on Aug. 15. Sterling rose 0.38 percent, last at $1.316 buoyed by a BBC report that Britain is preparing for a Brexit agreement by the end of November. The Canadian dollar strengthened against its U.S counterpart yesterday, as the greenback broadly fell after U.S midterm congressional elections and as oil prices rose. The U.S Dollar slumped to its lowest in more than two weeks against a basket of major currencies after the election outcome of a split U.S. Congress raised expectations that any major fiscal policy boost to the economy is unlikely for now. The price of oil, one of Canada’s major exports, rebounded after a report said Russia and Saudi Arabia were discussing oil output cuts in 2019. Canadian government bond prices were mixed across a flatter yield curve in sympathy with U.S Treasuries. The 10-year climbed 2 Canadian cents to yield 2.532 per cent. The kiwi surged after its unemployment rate fell to a 10-year low of 3.9% compared to 4.5% previously.

 

Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
00:00 RBNZ’s Orr at Parliament Select Committee on MPS High      
00:01 U.K RICS House Price Balance (OCT) Medium   -2.0% -2.0%
02:00 Japan Tokyo Avg Office Vacancies (OCT) Low     2.33
04:30 Japan Bankruptcies (YoY) (OCT) Medium     -8.54%
06:45 Switzerland Unemployment Rate (OCT) Medium   2.4% 2.4%
07:00 German Trade Balance (SEP) Medium   20.0b 17.2b
09:00 ECB Publishes Economic Bulletin Medium      
13:15 Canada Housing Starts (OCT) Medium   196.5k 188.7k
13:30 Canada New Housing Price Index (YoY) (SEP) Medium   0.2% 0.4%
13:30 U.S Initial Jobless Claims (NOV 3) Medium   214k 214k
13:30 U.S Continuing Claims (OCT 27) Medium   1635k 1631k
19:00 U.S FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) (NOV 8) High   2.25% 2.25%
19:00 U.S FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) (NOV 8) High   2.00% 2.00%
19:00 U.S Interest Rate on Excess Reserves (NOV 9) High     2.20%

Euro

The single currency ended yesterday’s trading session higher against the U.S Dollar. Euro zone retail sales rose more than expected year-on-year in September, and August data was also revised upwards, signaling continued consumer demand, especially in online shopping, despite slowing economic growth, data showed on Wednesday. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 1.1393 and a high of 1.1498 before closing the day around 1.1424 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen traded mixed and ended the session almost unchanged as US-China trade tensions have persisted. A weakening in the Yuan, as well as strengthening US-China relations are pushing the yen higher. From a macroeconomic standpoint, the Bank of Japan’s ultra-loose monetary policy continues to remain at odds. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 112.92 and a high of 113.80 before closing the day around 113.50 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound soared in value yesterday after Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab gave a “thumbs up” following a key Brexit cabinet meeting at No.10. The pound greatly improved yesterday after it was rumored Brexit negotiations were going well, resulting in sterling reaching near its best exchange rate since mid-June. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.3071 and a high of 1.3172 before closing the day at 1.3124 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar posted gains yesterday. On the release front, Canada releases Ivey PMI, which is expected to improve to 50.9 points. There were no major U.S releases on the schedule. Today, Canada releases Housing Starts. In the U.S, the Fed will set the benchmark rate and release a rate statement. We’ll also get a look at unemployment claims. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.3053 and a high of 1.3156 before closing the day at 1.3110 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar climbed yesterday and on Tuesday after the Reserve Bank kept the official cash rate at a record low of 1.5 per cent. Aussie dollar all over the joint as US mid-terms play out. The Australian Dollar also benefitted from a US Dollar selloff. Investors are selling the US currency due to concerns that US President Donald Trump may have trouble passing new fiscal policy through Congress. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7211 and a high of 0.7298 before closing the day at 0.7282 in the New York session.

 

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 55 and lies above the neutral zone. In general, the pair has gained 0.08%.

 

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bullish tone and MACD is also indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 63 reading and lies above the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has gained 0.29%.

 

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is also indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 67 reading and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.48%.

 

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bearish tone and MACD is also issuing a bearish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 36 and lies below the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.19%.

 

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bullish stance and MACD is also indicating a bullish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 65 and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.17%.

 

Appendix

  

FOREX Closing Prices for November 07, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.14254 1.14983 1.13933 1.14247 0.0000
USD/JPY 113.376 113.8 112.928 113.501 0.0920
GBP/USD 1.30974 1.31727 1.30718 1.31246 0.0026
USD/CHF 1.0022 1.00492 0.99507 1.00211 -0.0002
USD/CAD 1.31194 1.31564 1.30537 1.31101 -0.0012
EUR/JPY 129.544 130.123 129.369 129.688 0.0990
GBP/JPY 148.488 149.205 148.308 148.985 0.4350
CHF/JPY 113.095 113.717 112.926 113.229 0.1130
AUD/JPY 82.108 82.663 81.839 82.556 0.3980
EUR/GBP 0.87198 0.87449 0.87013 0.87026 -0.0016
EUR/CHF 1.1452 1.14674 1.14355 1.14512 -0.0002
GBP/CHF 1.31289 1.31624 1.30806 1.31541 0.0023

  

 

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1274 1.1334 1.1379 1.1439 1.1484 1.1544 1.1589
USD/JPY 112.15 112.54 113.02 113.41 113.89 114.28 114.76
GBP/USD 1.2972 1.3022 1.3073 1.3123 1.3174 1.3224 1.3275
USD/CHF 0.9866 0.9909 0.9965 1.0007 1.0063 1.0106 1.0162
USD/CAD 1.2954 1.3004 1.3057 1.3107 1.3160 1.3209 1.3262
EUR/JPY 128.58 128.97 129.33 129.73 130.08 130.48 130.84
GBP/JPY 147.56 147.94 148.46 148.83 149.36 149.73 150.25
CHF/JPY 112.07 112.50 112.86 113.29 113.66 114.08 114.45
AUD/JPY 81.22 81.53 82.04 82.35 82.87 83.18 83.69
EUR/GBP 0.8644 0.8673 0.8688 0.8716 0.8731 0.8760 0.8775
EUR/CHF 1.1403 1.1419 1.1435 1.1451 1.1467 1.1483 1.1499
GBP/CHF 1.3021 1.3051 1.3102 1.3132 1.3184 1.3214 1.3266

 

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

08 Nov 2018

Daily Market View

   

Daily Market View

Thursday, November 08, 2018
          U.S Stock Market

 

DJIA S & P 500 NASDAQ
26181 2816.50 7218.50
+1.53% +1.64% +2.17%

U.S stock futures pointed to strong opening gains for Wall Street yesterday after the midterm elections handed Democrats the House of Representatives and saw Republicans reinforce their control of the Senate in a widely expected outcome. After an initial muted market reaction globally, futures for the three major Wall Street indexes powered higher along with European stocks, while the dollar dropped on lowered chances of further U.S fiscal stimulus. A Democrat-controlled House will hamper Trump’s pro-business agenda and could lead to uncertainty about his administration, but few worry about a reversal in already-enforced corporate tax cuts and deregulation measures that have played a large hand in the U.S market’s rally since the 2016 election. The results for the Republicans were no worse than feared and pointed to a political gridlock that was largely expected by investors, leaving them free to buy back into a market that had its worst month in seven years in October.

 

 

Major Economic Releases for Today
Period Event GMT Forecast Previous

 

RBNZ’s Orr at Parliament Select Committee on MPS 00:00    

oct

U.K RICS House Price Balance 00:01 -2.0% -2.0%

oct

Japan Bankruptcies (YoY) 04:30   -8.54%

oct

Switzerland Unemployment Rate 06:45 2.4% 2.4%

 

ECB Publishes Economic Bulletin 09:00    

oct

Canada Housing Starts 13:15 196.5k 188.7k

nov

U.S Initial Jobless Claims 13:30 214k 214k

nov

U.S FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) 19:00 2.25% 2.25%

nov

U.S FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) 19:00 2.00% 2.00%
Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2.13%. The biggest gainers of the session on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were Caterpillar Inc., which rose 4.46% or 5.77 points to trade at 135.10 at the close. UnitedHealth Group Incorporated added 4.21% or 11.09 points to end at 274.63 and Microsoft Corporation was up 3.94% or 4.24 points to 111.96 in late trade. Biggest losers included Procter & Gamble Company, which lost 0.24% or 0.22 points to trade at 91.29 in late trade. Walt Disney Company added 0.29% or 0.34 points to end at 117.05 and Coca-Cola Company gained 0.53% or 0.26 points to 49.37.

 

 

 

NASDAQ 100

The tech heavy NASDAQ index added 2.64%. The top performers on the NASDAQ Composite were Forward Pharma A S which rose 47.41% to 1.71, Tilray Inc. which was up 30.64% to settle at 139.60 and Idera Pharmaceuticals Inc. which gained 27.60% to close at 9.200. The worst performers were MiMedx Group Inc. which was down 41.16% to 3.66 in late trade, I-AM Capital Acquisition Co which lost 24.49% to settle at 7.00 and NCS Multistage Holdings Inc. which was down 34.94% to 8.10 at the close.

 

Oil

Oil prices fell yesterday, continuing their recent slide after surging U.S crude output hit another record and domestic inventories rose more than expected. In early trade, prices had risen after a report that Russia and Saudi Arabia are discussing whether to cut crude output next year. Then the U.S Energy Information Administration reported that domestic crude inventories rose 5.8 million barrels in the latest week, more than double analysts’ expectations. Crude output hit 11.6 million bpd, a weekly record, though analysts will watch to see if monthly data confirms that. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was down 44 cents at $61.77. WTI touched a nearly eight-month low at $61.20 yesterday, falling more than 20-percent from its recent high and briefly trading in bear market territory. The market has yet to prove that it can hold onto a rally, so the short-term mood is still very negative. Brent crude, the global benchmark, fell 49 cents to $71.64 a barrel.

 

 

Precious and Base Metals

Gold rose yesterday as U.S mid-term elections delivered a split Congress and pressured the dollar, with investors now turning their attention to a Federal Reserve meeting for clues on future interest rate hikes. Spot gold was up 0.4 percent at $1,230.68 per ounce, while U.S gold futures climbed 0.5 percent to $1,232.10 an ounce. This outcome of the mid-term elections was expected by the financial markets. It would have been a big thing if gold was surprised by that. The dollar index fell more than half a percent, making bullion more attractive for holders of other currencies, as a split Congress dampened expectations for a major fiscal policy boost to the economy. Democrats won control of the U.S House of Representatives, giving them the opportunity to block President Donald Trump’s push for a further round of tax cuts and deregulation – measures that have turbo-charged the U.S economy, stock markets and the dollar, and have kept the Fed on a policy-tightening path. This will presumably put paid to any further tax cuts, which means in the longer term that the Fed will need to implement fewer rate hikes, which per se will have a negative impact on the U.S dollar. President Trump may instead focus more on foreign policy, which is likely to generate additional uncertainty. Gold would profit long-term from both factors. Investors often turn to gold as insurance at times of financial and political uncertainty. Market participants will now keep a close eye on a two-day Fed meeting starting later in the day to gauge the outlook for U.S monetary policy. While the Fed is expected to keep interest rates steady, markets are waiting to see whether it offers clues about possible rate increases in December and in 2019. Meanwhile, holdings of the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, SPDR Gold Trust, fell for the third straight session to 756.70 tonnes on Tuesday. Among other precious metals, silver rose 0.9 percent to $14.67 per ounce.

 

 

 

 

Traditional Agricultures

Wheat inched higher on Wednesday as a fall in the dollar after the U.S midterm elections added support following concerns about U.S crop conditions. Price movements in grain markets were limited, with corn and soybeans little changed.

 

 

 

Futures Settlement Price Wednesday, November 07, 2018
Instrument Contract Open High Low Settlement Net Change
DJIA DJM18 25618 26188 25531 26181 538
S & P 500 SPM18 2756.75 2817.25 2744.75 2816.5 57.5
NASDAQ 100 NDM18 7011 7224.25 6971.5 7218.5 202.25
Hang Seng HSH18 26084 26520 25857 26157 124
Nikkei 225 NKH18 22185 22430 21985 22120 -70
FTSE 100 FTH18 7045.5 7128 7036.5 7127.5 85.5
Gold GCJ18 1228.5 1238.1 1224.1 1227.5 -0.7
Silver SIK18 1452 1471.5 1446 1455.5 4
Copper HGK18 273.1 277.25 272.8 274.25 1
Crude Oil CLK18 61.71 63.15 61.17 61.56 -0.17
Wheat WK18 512.5 513.75 506.75 509.75 -1.5
Soybeans SK18 885 888 876.5 879 -4.75
Corn CK18 3752 372.75 370.5 371.75 -1

 

 

Daily Swings  (The Pivot Levels)
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
DJM18 25088 25310 25745 25967 26402 26624 27059
SPM18 2695.92 2720.33 2768.42 2792.83 2840.92 2865.33 2913.42
NDM18 6799.17 6885.33 7051.92 7138.08 7304.67 7390.83 7557.42
HSH18 25173 25515 25836 26178 26499 26841 27162
NKH18 21482 21733 21927 22178 22372 22623 22817
FTH18 6975.17 7005.83 7066.67 7097.33 7158.17 7188.83 7249.67
GCJ18 1207.70 1215.90 1221.70 1229.90 1235.70 1243.90 1249.70
SIK18 1418.33 1432.17 1443.83 1457.67 1469.33 1483.17 1494.83
HGK18 267.83 270.32 272.28 274.77 276.73 279.22 281.18
CLK18 58.79 59.98 60.77 61.96 62.75 63.94 64.73
WK18 499.42 503.08 506.42 510.08 513.42 517.08 520.42
SK18 862.83 869.67 874.33 881.17 885.83 892.67 897.33
CK18 368.33 369.42 370.58 371.67 372.83 373.92 375.08

 

 

 Source: – News & Quotes (Courtesy:  Reuters)                                                                    

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

 

 

 

 

07 Nov 2018

Daily Market View

   

Daily Market View

Wednesday, November 07, 2018
          U.S Stock Market

 

DJIA S & P 500 NASDAQ
25643 2759.00 7016.25
+0.34% +0.24% +0.20%

U.S stocks rose yesterday, as strong earnings and easing of trade tensions lifted materials and industrial sectors but trading volumes were light as uncertainty about the outcome of U.S midterm elections kept investors on the sidelines. Financial markets are bracing for President Donald Trump’s Republican Party losing control of the House of Representatives, while retaining the Senate. A political gridlock between the White House and Congress could hinder Trump’s pro-business agenda and raise concerns about political instability, but most analysts say this may not be the worst outcome for the stock market. Many fear there could be a sharp selloff in shares if the Democrats sweep both the House and the Senate. In contrast, stocks may rally on hopes of more tax cuts if Republicans retain control of the House. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 141.44 points, or 0.56 percent, the S&P 500 .SPX was up 13.93 points, or 0.51 percent, the NASDAQ was up 49.99 points, or 0.68 percent.

 

Major Economic Releases for Today
Period Event GMT Forecast Previous

 

U.S Midterm Elections      

sep

Japan Labor Cash Earnings (YoY) 00:00 1.1% 0.9%

sep

German Industrial Production n.s.a. and w.d.a. (YoY) 07:00 0.2% -0.1%

oct

Markit Germany Construction PMI 08:30   50.2

sep

Euro-Zone Retail Sales (YoY) 10:00 0.8% 1.8%

nov

U.S MBA Mortgage Applications 12:00   -2.5%

nov

DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories 15:30   3217k

nov

RBNZ Official Cash Rate 20:00 1.75% 1.75%

sep

U.S Consumer Credit 20:00 $15.500b $20.078b
Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.68%. The biggest gainers of the session on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were International Business Machines, which rose 2.55% or 3.06 points to trade at 123.12 at the close. Caterpillar Inc. added 2.31% or 2.92 points to end at 129.33 and The Travelers Companies Inc. was up 1.64% or 2.07 points to 128.60 in late trade. Biggest losers included Nike Inc., which lost 1.24% or 0.96 points to trade at 76.57 in late trade. Pfizer Inc. declined 1.17% or 0.51 points to end at 43.01 and Intel Corporation shed 0.88% or 0.42 points to 47.25.

 

 

 

NASDAQ 100

The NASDAQ index added 0.64%. The top performers on the NASDAQ Composite were Boxlight Corp Class A which rose 92.71% to 3.70, Vericel Corp Ord which was up 44.28% to settle at 16.650 and Naked Brand Group Ltd which gained 43.36% to close at 2.050. The worst performers were OncoSec Medical Inc. which was down 49.82% to 0.873 in late trade, GreenSky LLC which lost 36.70% to settle at 9.28 and iPass Inc. which was down 34.64% to 1.1700 at the close.

 

 

Oil

Oil prices fell yesterday, briefly entering a bear market, after the United States took measures to allow some of Iran’s biggest customers to continue importing its oil without violating U.S sanctions against the Islamic Republic. The sanctions waivers have further eased concerns that the oil market will swing into a deficit of crude supplies. Expectations for weaker-than-anticipated global economic growth amid a continuing U.S.-China trade dispute and currency weakness in emerging markets is also raising questions about demand for oil. U.S West Texas Intermediate crude ended yesterday’s session down 89 cents, or 1.4 percent, to $62.21 a barrel. At the session low, WTI touched $61.31, falling more than 20 percent from last month’s nearly four-year high level of $76.90. The Trump administration on Monday reinstated sanctions on Iran’s energy, banking and shipping industries, marking the end of a 180-day grace period the United States set for oil buyers to wind down imports from Iran.

 

 

Precious and Base Metals

Gold prices were little changed yesterday ahead of the U.S midterm elections that may fuel interest in the metal as a hedge against risk if the result sparks volatility in the wider financial markets. Spot gold was largely unchanged at $1,231.20 per ounce, while U.S gold futures were up 0.1 percent at $1,233.8 per ounce. Investors are waiting for more clarity on the elections. They’re possibly waiting to get an idea of how the dollar will move, the U.S markets will get impacted. Opinion polls show strong chances the opposition Democratic Party may take over the House of Representatives after two years of wielding no practical political power in Washington, while Donald Trump’s Republican Party is likely to retain the Senate. With polls skewing toward Democrat gains we are beginning to see uncertainty-led volatility across the precious complex, underpinning price action towards $1,225, however lacking the follow through bid interest to test above $1,235. Bullion traders also awaited a meeting of the Federal Reserve due later this week to gauge the outlook for U.S monetary policy. There is an expectation of another rate hike from the Fed. But whatever rate hike is going to come has already been priced in gold. Higher U.S. interest rates tend to boost the dollar, putting pressure on gold prices by increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion. In the wider markets, the dollar held in tight ranges versus its major rivals on Tuesday, while Asian shares wavered with sentiment tempered ahead of the vote, the first major electoral test of President Donald Trump’s big tax cuts and hostile trade policies. Meanwhile, holdings of the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, SPDR Gold Trust, fell 0.23 percent to 757.29 tonnes on Monday. Among other precious metals, silver was flat at $14.63 per ounce and palladium was down 0.3 percent at $1,129.38. Platinum rose 0.2 percent to $865 per ounce. Prices had touched their highest since June 25 at $873 in the previous session.

 

 

 

 

Traditional Agricultures

Soybean futures rose yesterday as China said it was committed to resolve trade differences with the United States, a dispute which weakened demand for North American supplies.

 

 

Futures Settlement Price Tuesday, November 06, 2018
Instrument Contract Open High Low Settlement Net Change
DJIA DJM18 25438 25657 25362 25643 208
S & P 500 SPM18 2739 2760.75 2729.5 2759 20
NASDAQ 100 NDM18 6946.75 7034.25 6906.5 7016.25 69.5
Hang Seng HSH18 26030 26161 25795 26033 140
Nikkei 225 NKH18 22005 22195 21990 22190 285
FTSE 100 FTH18 7092.5 7098 7000.5 7042 -34
Gold GCJ18 1232.7 1237.3 12247 1228.2 -4.6
Silver SIK18 1464 1470.5 1447 1451.5 -20
Copper HGK18 275.25 277.65 272.5 273.25 -1.9
Crude Oil CLK18 62.71 63.25 61.28 61.73 -0.92
Wheat WK18 505.75 513.5 505.25 511.25 4.5
Soybeans SK18 886.25 888.75 878 883.75 -1.5
Corn CK18 373 374 371.5 372.75 -0.75

 

Daily Swings  (The Pivot Levels)
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2
DJM18 25156 25259 25451 25554 25746 25849 26041
SPM18 2707.50 2718.50 2738.75 2749.75 2770.00 2781.00 2801.25
NDM18 6809.33 6857.92 6937.08 6985.67 7064.83 7113.42 7192.58
HSH18 25466 25630 25832 25996 26198 26362 26564
NKH18 21850 21920 22055 22125 22260 22330 22465
FTH18 6898.17 6949.33 6995.67 7046.83 7093.17 7144.33 7190.67
GCJ18 1210.23 1217.47 1222.83 1230.07 1235.43 1242.67 1248.03
SIK18 1418.67 1432.83 1442.17 1456.33 1465.67 1479.83 1489.17
HGK18 266.13 269.32 271.28 274.47 276.43 279.62 281.58
CLK18 58.95 60.12 60.92 62.09 62.89 64.06 64.86
WK18 498.25 501.75 506.50 510.00 514.75 518.25 523.00
SK18 867.50 872.75 878.25 883.50 889.00 894.25 899.75
CK18 369.00 370.25 371.50 372.75 374.00 375.25 376.50

 

 

 Source: – News & Quotes (Courtesy:  Reuters)                                                                    

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

 

07 Nov 2018

FOREX Newsletter

FOREX Newsletter

November 07, 2018

 

Pulse of the Market

·      U.S Midterm elections kicked off yesterday, final results will be released today

·      The British Pound hit two-week highs amid optimism of a Brexit deal

·      Markit’s Euro Zone Composite Final Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to 53.1 in October

·      The Canadian Dollar edged lower against its U.S counterpart yesterday

The U.S Dollar was steady as investors paused, while U.S midterm elections kicked off. The U.S Dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of six major currencies, inched up 0.02% to 96.10. Midterm elections kicked off yesterday, with opinion polls showing the Democratic Party could win control of the House of Representatives, while the Republican Party is likely to hold onto the Senate. Preliminary results are expected during evening hours and final results are in the early morning today. The number of job openings in September decreased, according to data released yesterday. Still, the chances of a Federal Reserve rate hike in December are at 90.8%. The Fed kicks off a two-day policy meeting toda0079, but no policy change is expected. Sterling traded at a five-month high against the Euro yesterday as markets believe a deal covering terms of the U.K.’s withdrawal from the E.U is close to being reached. A key meeting of the U.K Cabinet delivered fresh speculation that the E.U and U.K are ready to move on a Brexit deal. Sterling was bid on the news. The currency was earlier supported after U.K Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab was was seen by reporters leaving the key Cabinet meeting striking an optimistic tone, saying it was “thumbs up”. Euro zone business growth slumped to a two-year low in October as growing trade tensions and tariffs, alongside rising political uncertainty, put a dent in exports and optimism, a survey showed yesterday. IHS Markit’s Euro Zone Composite Final Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), seen as a good guide to economic health, fell to 53.1 in October from September’s 54.1, its lowest since September 2016. It was however above a 52.7 flash estimate and still comfortably higher than the 50 mark which separates growth from contraction. Euro zone companies reported a disappointing start to the fourth quarter.

 

Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
  U.S Midterm Elections High      
00:00 Japan Labor Cash Earnings (YoY) (SEP) Medium   1.1% 0.9%
00:00 Japan Real Cash Earnings (YoY) (SEP) Medium   -0.3% -0.6%
02:00 Reserve Bank of New Zealand 2-Year Inflation Expectation (4Q) Medium     2.04%
05:00 Japan Leading Index (SEP ) Medium   103.8 104.5
05:00 Japan Coincident Index (SEP) Medium   114.6 116.7
07:00 German Industrial Production n.s.a. and w.d.a. (YoY) (SEP) Medium   0.2% -0.1%
08:30 Markit Germany Construction PMI (OCT) Medium     50.2
10:00 Euro-Zone Retail Sales (YoY) (SEP) Medium   0.8% 1.8%
12:00 U.S MBA Mortgage Applications (NOV 2) Medium     -2.5%
15:30 DOE U.S Crude Oil Inventories (NOV 2) Medium     3217k
20:00 RBNZ Official Cash Rate (NOV 8) High   1.75% 1.75%
20:00 U.S Consumer Credit (SEP) Medium   $15.500b $20.078b
22:45 RBNZ’s Orr at Parliament Select Committee on Banking High      
23:50 Japan Machine Orders (YoY) (SEP) Medium   7.6% 12.6%
23:50 Japan Trade Balance – BOP Basis (Yen) (SEP) Medium   ¥332.5b -¥219.3b

 

Euro

The single currency ended yesterday’s trading session almost unchanged. Euro zone business growth slumped to a two-year low in October as growing trade tensions and tariffs, alongside rising political uncertainty, put a dent in exports and optimism, a survey showed on Tuesday. IHS Markit’s Euro Zone Composite Final PMI, fell to 53.1 in October. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 1.1390 and a high of 1.1436 before closing the day around 1.1425 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen pair quickly reversed around 30-35 pips from near one-month tops, albeit has managed to hold its neck just above the 113.00 handle. The pair sudden reversal since the early European session seemed rather unaffected by a goodish pickup in the US Dollar demand and could be solely attributed to reviving safe-haven demand. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 113.08 and a high of 113.47 before closing the day around 113.40 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound rocketed in an apparent response to Dominic Raab giving reporters a “thumbs up” after a crucial Brexit cabinet meeting at Downing Street. Brexit Secretary Mr. Raab alongside other cabinet Brexit supporters were reportedly pushing for the ability to be able to quit any proposed Irish backstop with a few months’ notice. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.3019 and a high of 1.3104 before closing the day at 1.3098 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar edged lower against its U.S counterpart yesterday, but stuck to a narrow trading range as Americans began casting votes in U.S. midterm congressional elections that could help shape prospects for the greenback. Investors were focused on whether congressional elections could disrupt the stellar run of the U.S dollar over recent months. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.3101 and a high of 1.3142 before closing the day at 1.3122 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar continued to be higher against its major counterparts in the European session on Tuesday, after the Reserve Bank of Australia kept its interest rate on hold and slightly upped its growth forecast for this year and next. The board of the Reserve Bank of Australia, governed by Philip Lowe, voted to maintain the cash rate at 1.50%. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7203 and a high of 0.7239 before closing the day at 0.7215 in the New York session.

 

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading below 14 and above 50, 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is issuing a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 52 and lies above the neutral zone. In general, the pair has gained 0.38%.

 

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bullish tone and MACD is indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 61 reading and lies above the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has gained 0.66%.

 

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is also indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 63 reading and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.70%.

 

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bearish tone and MACD is issuing a bullish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 34 and lies below the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.31%.

 

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bullish stance and MACD is indicating a bearish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 64 and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.27%.

 

Appendix

 

FOREX Closing Prices for November 06, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.14077 1.14364 1.13901 1.14251 0.0019
USD/JPY 113.178 113.479 113.082 113.409 0.2360
GBP/USD 1.3041 1.31048 1.30191 1.30984 0.0060
USD/CHF 1.00443 1.00537 1.00206 1.00234 -0.0019
USD/CAD 1.31072 1.31421 1.31013 1.31222 0.0014
EUR/JPY 129.125 129.616 128.83 129.589 0.4940
GBP/JPY 147.601 148.685 147.275 148.55 0.9670
CHF/JPY 112.652 113.157 112.532 113.116 0.4510
AUD/JPY 81.602 82.178 81.574 82.158 0.5700
EUR/GBP 0.87456 0.87526 0.87102 0.87191 -0.0027
EUR/CHF 1.14601 1.14681 1.14434 1.14529 -0.0003
GBP/CHF 1.30988 1.31427 1.30807 1.31313 0.0035

 

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1352 1.1371 1.1398 1.1417 1.1444 1.1464 1.1491
USD/JPY 112.77 112.93 113.17 113.32 113.56 113.72 113.96
GBP/USD 1.2958 1.2988 1.3043 1.3074 1.3129 1.3160 1.3215
USD/CHF 0.9978 0.9999 1.0011 1.0033 1.0045 1.0066 1.0078
USD/CAD 1.3061 1.3081 1.3102 1.3122 1.3142 1.3163 1.3183
EUR/JPY 128.29 128.56 129.07 129.35 129.86 130.13 130.65
GBP/JPY 146.25 146.76 147.66 148.17 149.07 149.58 150.48
CHF/JPY 112.09 112.31 112.71 112.94 113.34 113.56 113.96
AUD/JPY 81.16 81.37 81.76 81.97 82.37 82.57 82.97
EUR/GBP 0.8660 0.8685 0.8702 0.8727 0.8744 0.8770 0.8787
EUR/CHF 1.1417 1.1430 1.1442 1.1455 1.1466 1.1480 1.1491
GBP/CHF 1.3032 1.3056 1.3094 1.3118 1.3156 1.3180 1.3218

 

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

06 Nov 2018

Daily Market View

 

Daily Market View

Tuesday, November 06, 2018
          U.S Stock Market

 

DJIA S & P 500 NASDAQ
25435 2739.00 6946.75
+0.84% +0.71% -0.27%

U.S stocks are mostly higher yesterday as Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway leads gains in financial companies, while energy companies rise along with the prices of oil and natural gas. Technology and internet companies continue to struggle as Apple drops again. Asian indexes fell following weak economic data in China and a lack of progress in trade negotiations between the U.S. and China. Last week was the market’s best week since March. That came after a steep drop in October. The S&P 500 index added 8 points, or 0.3 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 146 points, or 0.6 percent. The NASDAQ sank 63 points, or 0.9 percent. Technology companies fell as investors worried about the trade dispute and about an increase in interest rates, which could erode the future profits of those companies. Smaller companies are vulnerable to higher interest rates because they tend to carry more debt. Japan’s Nikkei 225 index fell 1.5 percent and South Korea’s Kospi dropped 0.9 percent. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index fell 2.1 percent.

 

Major Economic Releases for Today
Period Event GMT Forecast Previous

 

U.S Midterm Elections      

nov

RBA Cash Rate Target 03:30 1.50% 1.50%

sep

German Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) 07:00 -2.8% -2.1%

oct

Markit Germany Services PMI 08:55 53.6 53.6

oct

Markit Eurozone Services PMI 09:00 53.3 53.3

sep

Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (YoY) 10:00 4.3% 4.2%

sep

Canada Building Permits (MoM) 13:30 0.3% 0.4%

sep

U.S JOLTS Job Openings 15:00 7125 7136

3Q

New Zealand Unemployment Rate 21:45 4.4% 4.5%
Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.76%. The best performers of the session on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were International Business Machines, which rose 3.80% or 4.39 points to trade at 120.06 at the close. Meanwhile, Chevron Corp added 3.67% or 4.21 points to end at 118.94 and McDonald’s Corporation was up 2.06% or 3.64 points to 180.39 in late trade. The worst performers of the session were Apple Inc., which fell 2.84% or 5.89 points to trade at 201.59 at the close. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. declined 0.42% or 0.97 points to end at 228.72 and Exxon Mobil Corp was down 0.38% or 0.32 points to 81.64.

 

 

NASDAQ 100

The tech heavy NASDAQ index fell 0.38%. The top performers were Therapix Biosciences Ltd which rose 37.31% to 9.20, Adomani Inc. which was up 37.20% to settle at 0.62 and Datawatch Corporation which gained 35.09% to close at 13.09. The worst performers were Clearside Biomedical Inc. which was down 62.77% to 2.0700 in late trade, Avadel Pharmaceuticals PLC which lost 23.88% to settle at 3.06 and Diana Containerships Inc. which was down 20.48% to 1.6700 at the close.

 

 

Oil

Oil prices were little changed after a steep five-day slump, as the U.S formally imposed punitive sanctions on Iran but granted eight countries temporary waivers allowing them to keep buying oil from the Islamic Republic. The sanctions are part of U.S President Donald Trump’s effort to curb Iran’s missile and nuclear programs and diminish its influence in the Middle East. Oil markets have been anticipating the sanctions for months. Prices have been under pressure as major producers including Saudi Arabia and Russia have ramped up output to near-record levels, while weak economic figures in China have cast doubt on the demand outlook. News of waivers on the sanctions limited price gains, and recent weakness in equities markets have fed concerns about global oil demand. U.S crude ended yesterday’s session 4 cents lower. The U.S has granted exemptions to eight countries; China, India, Greece, Italy, Taiwan, Japan, Turkey and South Korea, allowing them to temporarily continue buying Iranian oil.

 

 

 

Precious and Base Metals

Gold inched lower yesterday as investors took some profits following a recent rally, but the metal traded within a narrow range as caution set in ahead of the U.S congressional elections. Spot gold was down 0.1 percent at $1,230.76 per ounce, trading in an $8 range. U.S gold futures settled down $1, or 0.1 percent, at $1,232.30. The market is just quiet ahead of the U.S mid-term elections and people are waiting to see how it is going to play out after today. Analysts said some profit taking was also putting slight pressure on gold. Gold had quite a move over the past few weeks, we have seen a reduction in net-short positions because of uncertainties, but over the last week, we’ve seen a spurt again. So I think we’re seeing some profit taking. Investors will keep a close eye on the U.S. midterm elections which may fuel interest in bullion as a hedge against risk if the result sparks volatility in the wider financial markets. Opinion polls show strong chances that the Democratic Party may win control of the House of Representatives in the Nov. 6 midterm elections. Should the Democrats surprise, we would expect pressure on the dollar and a move higher in the metals complex. Republican control of the both the House and Senate should create selling pressure. Bullion traders also awaited this week’s Federal Reserve meeting to gauge the outlook for U.S monetary policy. No one expects the Fed to raise interest rates this week. It is most likely going to happen next month. Gold is going to have a hard time rallying into the next Fed meeting in December. Speculators raised their net short position in gold to a three-week high in the week ended Oct. 30, according to U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data. Also, highlighting investors’ bearish sentiment toward bullion were holdings of the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, SPDR Gold Trust which fell 0.23 percent to 759.06 tonnes on Friday. Elsewhere, silver fell 0.6 percent to $14.63 per ounce.

 

 

 

 

Traditional Agricultures

Soybeans ticked higher yesterday, rising for a fifth consecutive session as easing trade tensions between Washington and Beijing underpinned the market. Corn gained ground as traders positioned for lower North American production after recent adverse weather.

 

 

 

Futures Settlement Price Monday, November 05, 2018
Instrument Contract Open High Low Settlement Net Change
DJIA DJM18 25219 25463 25128 25435 195
S & P 500 SPM18 2722.25 2743.75 2712.75 2739 15
NASDAQ 100 NDM18 6971.5 6998 6864.75 6946.75 -31.75
Hang Seng HSH18 26012 26134 25715 25893 -597
Nikkei 225 NKH18 21925 22045 21860 21905 -380
FTSE 100 FTH18 7059.5 7114.5 7050.5 7076 -7
Gold GCJ18 1234 1235.8 1228.3 1232.8 -0.2
Silver SIK18 1471 1472 1470.5 1471.5 -2.5
Copper HGK18 281.25 281.25 274.45 275.15 -5.5
Crude Oil CLK18 62.94 64.1 62.49 62.65 -0.5
Wheat WK18 511 511.75 503.5 506.75 -1.75
Soybeans SK18 891 892.5 881.5 885.25 -2
Corn CK18 371.25 373.75 369.25 373.5 2.5

 

Daily Swings  (The Pivot Levels)
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
DJM18 24886 25007 25221 25342 25556 25677 25891
SPM18 2688.92 2700.83 2719.92 2731.83 2750.92 2762.83 2781.92
NDM18 6741.75 6803.25 6875.00 6936.50 7008.25 7069.75 7141.50
HSH18 25275 25495 25694 25914 26113 26333 26532
NKH18 21643 21752 21828 21937 22013 22122 22198
FTH18 6982.17 7016.33 7046.17 7080.33 7110.17 7144.33 7174.17
GCJ18 1221.30 1224.80 1228.80 1232.30 1236.30 1239.80 1243.80
SIK18 1469.17 1469.83 1470.67 1471.33 1472.17 1472.83 1473.67
HGK18 265.85 270.15 272.65 276.95 279.45 283.75 286.25
CLK18 60.45 61.47 62.06 63.08 63.67 64.69 65.28
WK18 494.67 499.08 502.92 507.33 511.17 515.58 519.42
SK18 869.33 875.42 880.33 886.42 891.33 897.42 902.33
CK18 366.08 367.67 370.58 372.17 375.08 376.67 379.58

 

 Source: – News & Quotes (Courtesy:  Reuters)                                                                    

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

 

06 Nov 2018

FOREX Newsletter

FOREX Newsletter

November 06, 2018

 

Pulse of the Market

·      The Dollar was lower after three weeks of gains as investors paused before the midterm elections

·      Sterling gained amid optimism that a deal between the UK and the EU will be reached soon

·      The euro inched slightly higher as the confrontation over Italy’s budget continued to put pressure

·      The Canadian Dollar strengthened against its U.S. counterpart yesterday as the oil prices rose

 

The Dollar paused after three consecutive weeks of gains as investors took profits before U.S midterm elections this week that may fuel a bout of volatility for global markets, with the British pound leading gains on Brexit deal breakthrough hopes. Notwithstanding a dollar selloff in the second half of last week, hedge funds added to their dollar holdings taking net long positions to its biggest levels since Dec. 2016 as latest data have encouraged more bullish bets. But market analysts warn that an unexpected outcome at the midterm elections could trigger a massive unwind of long dollar positions and undermine the greenback which has rallied more than 7 percent from April lows against its rivals. Today’s U.S. congressional election is widely expected to help the Democratic Party, who have a strong chance of winning control of the U.S. House of Representatives, with Republicans likely to keep the Senate. On the contrary, if the Republicans put up a strong showing, that could give President Trump a freer hand and he could step up his criticism of the Fed which may hurt the dollar. Speculators added to their net long U.S. dollar bets, taking the value of the net long dollar position to $26.74 billion in the week ended Oct. 30, nearing its highest level since Dec. 2016, according to latest futures data. The British pound was the big gainer as expectations grew that Britain and the European Union are inching closer to a deal. The currency was lifted by a report over the weekend that said an all-UK customs deal will be written into the legally binding agreement governing Britain’s withdrawal from the European Union. The euro inched forward with EUR/USD up 0.09%, as confrontation over Italy’s budget continued to pressure the single currency. Euro zone finance ministers called on Italy to change its 2019 budget before a deadline set for next week, confirming Rome was isolated in the bloc over its row on fiscal rules. As some ministers evoked risks for the euro from the budget dispute, Italy’s Finance Minister Giovanni Tria said he was working on a compromise, an Italian official said, stressing Rome was not considering a change to spending targets. The Australian and New Zealand dollars eased from more than one-month highs yesterday with trading expected to be volatile in a week

 

 

Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
  U.S Midterm Elections High      
03:30 RBA Cash Rate Target (NOV 6) High   1.50% 1.50%
07:00 German Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) (SEP) Medium   -2.8% -2.1%
08:55 Markit Germany Services PMI (OCT) Low   53.6 53.6
09:00 Markit Eurozone Services PMI (OCT) Low   53.3 53.3
10:00 Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (YoY) (SEP) Low   4.3% 4.2%
13:30 Canada Building Permits (MoM) (SEP) Medium   0.3% 0.4%
15:00 U.S JOLTS Job Openings (SEP) Low   7125 7136
21:30 Australia AiG Performance of Construction Index (OCT) Medium     49.3
21:45 New Zealand Unemployment Rate (3Q) High   4.4% 4.5%
21:45 New Zealand Employment Change (YoY) (3Q) High   2.0% 3.7%
23:50 Japan Official Reserve Assets (OCT) Low     $1259.7b

 

Euro

The single currency gained as Euro zone finance ministers called on Italy to change its 2019 budget before a deadline set for next week, confirming Rome was isolated in the bloc over its row on fiscal rules. As some ministers evoked risks for the euro from the budget dispute, Italy’s Finance Minister said he was working on a compromise. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 1.1353 and a high of 1.1422 before closing the day around 1.1405 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen pair dipped yesterday after three consecutive weeks of gains as investors took profits before U.S midterm elections this week that may fuel volatility in global markets. The U.S midterm congressional elections today are expected to help the Democratic Party win control of the U.S. House of Representatives. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 113.05 and a high of 113.32 before closing the day around 113.17 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound held near the day’s highs in yesterday trading session, up 0.51 percent at $1.3037 on a Sunday Times report that an all-UK customs deal will be written into the agreement governing Britain’s withdrawal from the EU. Prime Minister Theresa May’s office has dismissed the report as “speculation”. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.2962 and a high of 1.3053 before closing the day at 1.3038 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar strengthened yesterday as oil prices rose and Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz pushed back against critics who complain that economic forecasts from the central bank are too optimistic. Market volatility, a stronger U.S. dollar and higher yields for long-term bonds are signs that markets are becoming more normal. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.3068 and a high of 1.3113 before closing the day at 1.3107 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar eased from more than one-month highs with trading expected to be volatile in a week when both countries’ central banks hold policy meetings and US mid-term elections preoccupy financial markets. The Reserve Bank of Australia meets today when it is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 1.50 per cent for 27 consecutive policy meetings. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7180 and a high of 0.7213 before closing the day at 0.7209 in the New York session.

 

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading below 14 and above 50, 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is issuing a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 50 and lies below the neutral zone. In general, the pair has gained 0.12%.

 

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bullish tone and MACD is indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 58 reading and lies above the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has gained 0.53%.

  

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is also indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 61 reading and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.17%.

 

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bearish tone and MACD is issuing a bullish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 37 and lies below the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.39%.

 

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bullish stance and MACD is indicating a bearish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 63 and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.63%.

 

Appendix

  

FOREX Closing Prices for November 05, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.3892 1.14224 1.13537 1.14058 0.0016
USD/JPY 113.191 113.32 113.056 113.173 -0.0180
GBP/USD 1.30006 1.30539 1.29627 1.3038 0.0070
USD/CHF 1.00253 1.00673 1.00224 1.00425 0.0009
USD/CAD 1.30992 1.31136 1.30687 1.31078 0.0009
EUR/JPY 128.924 129.302 128.577 129.095 0.1590
GBP/JPY 147.191 147.781 146.828 147.583 0.7740
CHF/JPY 112.875 112.892 112.459 112.665 -0.1070
AUD/JPY 81.389 81.683 81.215 81.588 0.1360
EUR/GBP 0.87572 0.87709 0.87348 0.8746 -0.0034
EUR/CHF 1.14223 1.14611 1.14184 1.1456 0.0027
GBP/CHF 1.30345 1.31055 1.30286 1.3096 0.0082

 

  

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1297 1.1325 1.1366 1.1394 1.1434 1.1463 1.1503
USD/JPY 112.78 112.92 113.05 113.18 113.31 113.45 113.57
GBP/USD 1.2891 1.2927 1.2983 1.3018 1.3074 1.3109 1.3165
USD/CHF 0.9976 0.9999 1.0021 1.0044 1.0066 1.0089 1.0111
USD/CAD 1.3035 1.3052 1.3080 1.3097 1.3125 1.3142 1.3170
EUR/JPY 127.96 128.27 128.68 128.99 129.41 129.72 130.13
GBP/JPY 146.06 146.44 147.01 147.40 147.97 148.35 148.92
CHF/JPY 112.02 112.24 112.45 112.67 112.89 113.11 113.32
AUD/JPY 80.84 81.03 81.31 81.50 81.78 81.96 82.24
EUR/GBP 0.8694 0.8714 0.8730 0.8751 0.8766 0.8787 0.8802
EUR/CHF 1.1387 1.1402 1.1429 1.1445 1.1472 1.1488 1.1515
GBP/CHF 1.2971 1.3000 1.3048 1.3077 1.3125 1.3154 1.3202

 

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

05 Nov 2018

Daily Market View

Daily Market View

Monday, November 05, 2018
          U.S Stock Market

 

DJIA S & P 500 NASDAQ
25240 2724.00 6978.50
-0.43% -0.63% -1.04%

U.S stocks slipped Friday as Apple absorbed its worst loss in more than four years. Thanks to gains over the previous three days, the S&P 500 index finished with its biggest weekly increase since March. Apple, the world’s largest technology company, forecast weak revenue in the current quarter and startled investors by saying it will stop disclosing quarterly iPhone sales. That pulled technology stocks lower. Other high-growth stocks held up well after the U.S and China said they had made some progress in trade talks, and Asian indexes surged on reports that China’s government plans to cut taxes. The Department of Labor said employers added 250,000 jobs in October, with no sign that hiring was going to slow down. The proportion of Americans with jobs is at its highest level since January 2009, and hourly wages also grew by the most since then. Along with high consumer confidence, those are all good signs for economic growth and consumer spending in the months to come. Bond yields surged following the strong jobs report as investors bet on continued economic growth.

 

Major Economic Releases for Today
Period Event GMT Forecast Previous

nov

New Zealand Dairy Auction Avg. Winning Price MT     $2,885

oct

Australia TD Securities Inflation (YoY) 00:00   2.1%

 

BOJ Kuroda speaks in Nagoya 01:00    

oct

Caixin China PMI Composite 01:45   52.1

oct

Caixin China PMI Services 01:45   53.1

oct

Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI 09:30   53.9

oct

Markit/CIPS UK Composite PMI 09:30   54.1

oct

Markit US Services PMI 14:45   54.7

oct

U.S ISM Non-Manufacturing/Services Composite 15:00 59.5 61.6
Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.43% on Friday. The best performers of the session on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were Chevron Corp, which rose 3.20% or 3.56 points to trade at 114.73 at the close. Meanwhile, Exxon Mobil Corp added 1.59% or 1.28 points to end at 81.95 and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. was up 1.20% or 2.72 points to 229.69 in late trade. The worst performers of the session were Apple Inc., which fell 6.63% or 14.74 points to trade at 207.48 at the close. Intel Corporation declined 2.30% or 1.11 points to end at 47.11 and Pfizer Inc. was down 1.69% or 0.74 points to 42.93.

 

 

 

 

 

NASDAQ 100

The tech heavy NASDAQ index fell 1.04% on Friday. The top performers on the NASDAQ Composite were Pacific Biosciences of California which rose 67.63% to 7.560, Shineco Inc. which was up 29.44% to settle at 1.02 and China Internet Nationwide Financial Services Inc. which gained 28.92% to close at 2.14. The worst performers were Puma Biotechnology Inc. which was down 48.01% to 20.07 in late trade, Trevena Inc. which lost 32.39% to settle at 0.71 and Inpixon which was down 32.03% to 5.0300 at the close.

 

 

 

Oil

The oil market’s two-year bull run is running into one of its biggest tests in months, facing a tidal wave of supply and growing worries about economic weakness sapping demand worldwide. After topping out at more than $75 and $85 a barrel just a month ago, both U.S crude and Brent benchmark futures have grappled with near-relentless selling. For a time, prices had some support on hopes that renewed U.S sanctions on Iran would force barrels off the market. That changed in the last week. The world’s three largest producers – Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United States – all indicated they were pumping at record or near-record levels, while the United States said it would allow waivers that could allow buyers to keep importing Iranian oil, lessening the threat of a supply crunch. The structure of the U.S crude futures curve had for several months indicated expectations for tighter supply, but future-dated contracts now suggest investors think markets could be awash in oil over the coming months.

 

 

Precious and Base Metals

Gold slipped on Friday as the U.S Dollar regained some ground on the back of strong American jobs data, putting the metal on track for its first weekly loss in five weeks. Spot gold was down 0.2 percent at $1,231.22 per ounce. The bullion was down 0.1 percent this week. U.S gold futures settled down $5.3, or 0.43 percent, at $1,233.30. The dollar index gained after data showed U.S job growth rebounded sharply in October and wages recorded their largest annual gain in 9-1/2 years. Strong data helped the dollar, which put some pressure on gold. The fact that the data is strong despite storm-related disruptions, suggests the economy is humming along strongly and that the Fed will continue to hike interest rates. The U.S Federal Reserve has raised interest rates three times this year and is widely expected to raise rates again in December. Gold is sensitive to higher U.S interest rates, which increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion while boosting the dollar, in which it is priced. Given the fact that we had a very strong rally yesterday, we are going to struggle towards the $1,240-$1,245 highs off this move unless we get a sustained downward movement on the dollar. Gold jumped about 1.5 percent in the previous session as the dollar retreated sharply from a 16-month high. Share on major world markets rallied on hopes that the United States and China were starting to repair their damaged trade relations. The return of risk appetite could be a bearish sign for gold, given how it’s benefited from its safe-haven status as of late. Attention is now turning to the U.S congressional elections on Nov. 6, which will determine whether the Republican or Democratic Party controls Congress, with some predicting increased market volatility on the outcome. Holdings in SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed ETF, rose to their highest since late August. Meanwhile, physical gold demand in India remained lackluster this week.

 

 

 

Traditional Agricultures

Soybean futures hit two-week peaks on Friday on signs of easing trade tensions between Washington and Beijing, but slipped from the highs after a White House official said he was less optimistic that a deal could be reached.

 

 

Futures Settlement Price Friday, November 02, 2018
Instrument Contract Open High Low Settlement Net Change
DJIA DJM18 25206 25681 25036 25240 -80
S & P 500 SPM18 2724.25 2766 2699.5 2724 -13.5
NASDAQ 100 NDM18 6984 7143 6911 6978.5 -98.5
Hang Seng HSH18 25807 26497 25764 26490 1154
Nikkei 225 NKH18 21685 22295 21650 22285 760
FTSE 100 FTH18 7157 7169 7045 7083 -12.5
Gold GCJ18 1235.1 1237.9 1231.1 1233 -2.1
Silver SIK18 1474 1491 1464.5 1474 0
Copper HGK18 272 281.15 270.2 280.65 8.85
Crude Oil CLK18 63.48 63.92 62.6 63.15 -0.35
Wheat WK18 507.5 509.25 502.25 508.5 2.25
Soybeans SK18 881 900.5 878.5 887.25 6.75
Corn CK18 366.75 372.5 364.75 371 4.75

 

 

Daily Swings  (The Pivot Levels)
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
DJM18 24312 24674 24957 25319 25602 25964 26247
SPM18 2627.17 2663.33 2693.67 2729.83 2760.17 2796.33 2826.67
NDM18 6646.67 6778.83 6878.67 7010.83 7110.67 7242.83 7342.67
HSH18 25271 25517 26004 26250 26737 26983 27470
NKH18 21213 21432 21858 22077 22503 22722 23148
FTH18 6905.00 6975.00 7029.00 7099.00 7153.00 7223.00 7277.00
GCJ18 1223.30 1227.20 1230.10 1234.00 1236.90 1240.80 1243.70
SIK18 1435.50 1450.00 1462.00 1476.50 1488.50 1503.00 1515.00
HGK18 262.57 266.38 273.52 277.33 284.47 288.28 295.42
CLK18 61.21 61.90 62.53 63.22 63.85 64.54 65.17
WK18 497.08 499.67 504.08 506.67 511.08 513.67 518.08
SK18 855.00 866.75 877.00 888.75 899.00 910.75 921.00
CK18 358.58 361.67 366.33 369.42 374.08 377.17 381.83

 

 

 Source: – News & Quotes (Courtesy:  Reuters)                                                                    

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