10 Sep 2018

Daily Market View

   

Daily Market View

Monday, September 10, 2018
          U.S Stock Market

 

DJIA S & P 500 NASDAQ
25961 2874.75 7439.00
-0.31% -0.22% -0.25%

Wall Street’s major indexes fell on Friday as U.S President Donald Trump raised the possibility of additional tariffs on Chinese imports and Apple Inc. indicated that some of its products could be subjected to such levies. U.S. stocks were lower for most of Friday’s session but dipped further in the last half-hour of trading on reports that Apple products, including the Apple Watch and AirPods, would be slapped with duties. Apple shares, which had been in positive territory for most of the session, ended 0.8 percent lower. The company provided those details in response to the White House’s proposed tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports. A comment period for those tariffs ended on Thursday night. Earlier on Friday, White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said Trump would not make any decisions on those tariffs until officials evaluated public comments. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 79.33 points, or 0.31 percent, the S&P 500 lost 6.37 points, or 0.22 percent and the NASDAQ dropped 20.19 points, or 0.25 percent.

 

Major Economic Releases for Today
Period Event GMT Forecast Previous

        aug

China New Yuan Loans CNY     1450.0b

aug

China Producer Price Index (YoY) 01:30   4.6%

aug

China Consumer Price Index (YoY) 01:30   2.1%

aug

Japan Bankruptcies (YoY) 04:30   -1.68%

jul

U.K Visible Trade Balance (Pounds) 08:30   -£11383

jul

U.K Trade Balance 08:30   -£1861

jul

U.K Industrial Production (YoY) 08:30   1.1%

jul

U.K Gross Domestic Product (MoM) 08:30   0.1%

jul

U.S Consumer Credit 19:00   $10.211b
Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.31% on Friday. The best performers of the session on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were Exxon Mobil Corp, which rose 1.70% or 1.37 points to trade at 81.83 at the close. Meanwhile, Pfizer Inc. added 1.01% or 0.42 points to end at 42.20 and American Express Company was up 0.65% or 0.68 points to 106.08 in late trade. The worst performers of the session were Intel Corporation, which fell 1.71% or 0.81 points to trade at 46.45 at the close. The Travelers Companies Inc. declined 1.30% or 1.71 points to end at 130.09 and United Technologies Corporation was down 1.13% or 1.51 points to 132.01.

 

NASDAQ 100

The tech heavy NASDAQ index fell 0.25% on Friday. The top performers on the NASDAQ were Netlist Inc. which rose 91.84% to 0.282, Intellipharmaceutics International which was up 34.10% to settle at 0.409 and Interlink Electronics Inc. which gained 21.71% to close at 4.99. The worst performers were Mercantil Bank Holding Corp Class B which was down 44.23% to 10.00 in late trade, eGain Corporation which lost 31.24% to settle at 8.750 and Advaxis Inc. which was down 28.67% to 1.02 at the close.

Oil

Oil prices fell on Friday for the third straight session, weighed down by a strong dollar, weakness in the equity markets, and Tropical Storm Gordon’s smaller-than-expected impact on U.S. Gulf Coast oil production. U.S crude futures fell 49 cents to $67.28 per barrel. For the week, WTI was set to lose more than 3.5 percent, and Brent was on track to fall 1.6 percent. Oil prices had posted gains early in the week as the approach of Gordon forced the closure of Gulf of Mexico oil platforms and threatened refineries on the Gulf Coast. The storm ultimately weakened and moved away from oil-producing areas and energy companies restarted operations shut-in as a precautionary measure. The dollar rose against a basket of other currencies after a report showed U.S. job growth surged in August and that wages notched their largest annual increase in more than nine years. The jobs data raised concerns about the possibility of faster interest rate hikes, which in turn pressured equities markets.

 

 

Precious and Base Metals

Gold fell on Friday as the Dollar resumed its rally versus a currency basket after stronger than expected payrolls data cemented expectations of a third interest rate increase in September this year. A stronger dollar makes dollar-priced gold costlier for non-U.S. investors. U.S. job growth accelerated in August, with wages notching up their largest annual increase in nine years, strengthening views the economy was so far weathering the Trump administration’s escalating trade war with China. The greenback has soared this year on escalating U.S.-Sino trade tensions, though it has lost some steam this week to rival safe haven currencies like the yen and Swiss franc even as investors brace for new U.S. tariffs on China. A public consultation period for proposed U.S. tariffs on an additional $200 billion of Chinese imports ended on Friday and tariffs could go into effect at any moment, though there is no clear timetable. Spot gold fell 0.1 percent to $1,198.40, after it hit a near one-week high on Thursday at $1,206.98. U.S. gold futures were flat at $1,203.80 an ounce. Gold has tumbled about 12 percent from a peak of $1,365.23 in April, though present levels have invoked a lot of physical buying in Asia. Indicating possible headwinds for the dollar was an overnight report that bolstered the yen after suggesting U.S. President Donald Trump would next take up trade issues with Japan. Battered emerging market currencies have also recovered their poise versus the dollar. The stronger yen versus the dollar is leading to some buying in gold. The recent low of around $1,160 in August is really the bottom in gold for now. Spot silver was up 0.4 percent at $14.2 per ounce. The global platinum market will be oversupplied by 295,000 ounces this year as both supply and demand of the auto catalyst metal fall by 2 percent, the World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) said on Thursday.

 

 

Traditional Agriculture

Soybean futures firmed on technical buying on Friday but gains were kept in check by expectations for a bumper U.S harvest in the coming weeks and concerns about exports, traders said. Corn settled in positive territory, with traders focused on the good demand for the yellow grain. Wheat futures dropped for the fourth day in a row but closed above session lows.

 

Futures Settlement Price Friday, September 07, 2018
Instrument Contract Open High Low Settlement Net Change
DJIA DJM18 25917 25963 25915 25961 -60
S & P 500 SPM18 2872.5 2875.75 2870.25 2874.75 -4
NASDAQ 100 NDM18 7432 7439.5 7427 7439 -17.75
Hang Seng HSH18 26853 26860 26815 26828 -152
Nikkei 225 NKH18 22290 22390 22275 22390 -120
FTSE 100 FTH18 7279.5 7288.5 7270.5 7287 -53.5
Gold GCJ18 1201 1201.4 1198.9 1200.2 -4.9
Silver SIK18 1419 1419 1414 1415.5 -1.5
Copper HGK18 262.4 262.65 261.3 262.2 -1.35
Crude Oil CLK18 67.54 67.74 67.48 67.73 -0.12
Wheat WK18 509 511.5 508.75 511.25 -2.25
Soybeans SK18 841.25 844.25 840.5 843.75 4.5
Corn CK18 364.5 366.75 364.5 366.75 0.75

 

 

Daily Swings  (The Pivot Levels)
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
DJM18 25882 25898 25930 25946 25978 25994 26026
SPM18 2865.92 2868.08 2871.42 2873.58 2876.92 2879.08 2882.42
NDM18 7418.33 7422.67 7430.83 7435.17 7443.33 7447.67 7455.83
HSH18 26764 26789 26809 26834 26854 26879 26899
NKH18 22198 22237 22313 22352 22428 22467 22543
FTH18 7257.50 7264.00 7275.50 7282.00 7293.50 7300.00 7311.50
GCJ18 1196.43 1197.67 1198.93 1200.17 1201.43 1202.67 1203.93
SIK18 1408.33 1411.17 1413.33 1416.17 1418.33 1421.17 1423.33
HGK18 260.10 260.70 261.45 262.05 262.80 263.40 264.15
CLK18 67.30 67.39 67.56 67.65 67.82 67.91 68.08
WK18 506.75 507.75 509.50 510.50 512.25 513.25 515.00
SK18 837.67 839.08 841.42 842.83 845.17 846.58 848.92
CK18 363.00 363.75 365.25 366.00 367.50 368.25 369.75

 

 Source: – News & Quotes (Courtesy:  Reuters)                                                                    

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

 

10 Sep 2018

FOREX Newsletter

FOREX Newsletter

September 10, 2018

 

  Pulse of the Market

·      U.S average hourly earnings rose 0.4% last month, the strongest pace of growth in nearly a year

·      Euro and sterling were also victims of risk aversion and U.S Dollar strength

·      On Friday Canada lost 51K jobs last month data showed

·      The Australian and New Zealand dollars hit a 2-year low and further losses are likely

 

The U.S Dollar traded higher against all of the major currencies on Friday on the back of a stronger jobs report and President Trump’s threat of fresh tariffs on China and Japan. Stocks extended their slide and unless the President retracts his threats, further losses are likely which means more risk aversion and losses for the major currencies. Friday’s non-farm payrolls report guarantees a Fed hike on September 26th. Not only were there more than 200K jobs created in the month of August but wages are growing! Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% last month, the strongest pace of growth in nearly a year. Between the record highs in U.S stocks last month and the pickup in earnings, next week’s retail sales could surprise to the upside as well. Comments from U.S. policymakers have also been hawkish with Fed Presidents Mester, Rosengren and Kaplan looking for the policy rate to move towards neutral. The greenback should extend its gains versus EUR, AUD and other major currencies, but the outlook for USD/JPY is tricky. USD/JPY dropped as safe haven carry flows returned home after President Trump hinted that Japan could be the target for their next trade fight. He’s focused on reducing deficits and in a phone interview with the Wall Street Journal he said they may not be happy “as soon as I tell them how much they have to pay.” Late Friday, he also tightened the noose on China by threatening to impose another $267B in tariffs. These threats make it very difficult for stocks and USD/JPY rise. Euro and sterling were also victims of risk aversion and U.S Dollar strength. Sterling had traded above 1.30 on the back of positive Brexit comments from the EU but it gave up all of its gains to end the day in negative territory. There’s a Bank of England monetary policy announcement in the week ahead but Brexit negotiations and data should have a greater impact on the currency because having just raised rates in August, they are in no position to tighten again. The market is also not pricing in another rate hike from the BoE until the middle of next year. The Euro ended the week near its 2 week lows on the back of softer German data. Italian yields fell every day this past week so Italy is less of a problem but there’s very little reason for the ECB, who also has a policy meeting next week to change their neutral bias.

 

Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
  China New Yuan Loans CNY (AUG) High     1450.0b
01:30 China Producer Price Index (YoY) (AUG) Medium     4.6%
01:30 China Consumer Price Index (YoY) (AUG) High     2.1%
04:30 Japan Bankruptcies (YoY) (AUG) Medium     -1.68%
08:30 U.K Visible Trade Balance (Pounds) (JUL) Medium     -£11383
08:30 U.K Trade Balance (JUL) Medium     -£1861
08:30 U.K Industrial Production (YoY) (JUL) Medium     1.1%
08:30 U.K Manufacturing Production (YoY) (JUL) Medium     1.5%
08:30 Euro-Zone Sentix Investor Confidence (SEP) Low     14.7
08:30 U.K Gross Domestic Product (MoM) (JUL) Medium     0.1%
19:00 U.S Consumer Credit (JUL) Medium     $10.211b

Euro

The single currency finished in the middle of the pack last week. Thursday’s ECB meeting should bring little new information as the policy was preset for the next year back at the June meeting; a mention of European banks’ exposure to Turkish borrowers would excite markets. For the second week in a row, the Euro finished lower against the U.S Dollar. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1555 and a high of 1.1560 before closing the day around 1.1555 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen pair was sharply higher on Friday and erased weekly losses on the back of a rally of the US Dollar across the board following US employment data and comments from Fed’s Kaplan. The US economy added 201K jobs during August, above the 191K expected. The number that boosted the greenback was the rise in average hourly earnings. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 110.90 and a high of 111.03 before closing the day around 111.01 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound recorded a rare weekly advance on the Euro and other currencies in the wake of comments pertaining to the Irish border question from the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier. Barnier has said he is open to “other backstops” for the Irish border question, while newswires report he now believes negotiations are 90% complete. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.2916 and a high of 1.2922 before closing the day at 1.2916 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar weakened against its U.S counterpart and fell nearly 1 per cent for the week after data showed the economy unexpectedly shed jobs in August. Canada’s economy lost 51,600 jobs in August, the biggest decline since January, as losses in part-time work overtook gains in full-time employment, data from Statistics Canada showed. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.3169 and a high of 1.3179 before closing the day at 1.3171 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar has shed almost 13 per cent against the US currency since late January, and the downtrend became further entrenched at the weekend in the wake of the latest US jobs data and President Donald Trump’s decision to ratchet global trade tensions ever higher. That threat came even as the top U.S and Canadian negotiators were meeting in Washington. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7096 and a high of 0.7202 before closing the day at 0.7106 in the New York session.

 

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 56 and lies above the neutral zone. In general, the pair has lost 0.32%.

 

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and below 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish tone and MACD is indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 51 reading and lies above the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has gained 0.18%.

 

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading above 14 and below 50, 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 39 reading and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.99%.

 

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bearish tone and MACD is also issuing a bearish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 55 and lies above the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.50%.

 

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bullish stance and MACD is indicating a bearish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 33 and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.30%.

 

Appendix

  

FOREX Closing Prices for September 07, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.1559 1.15607 1.1555 1.15551 -0.0067
USD/JPY 110.975 111.03 110.909 111.015 0.2840
GBP/USD 1.29203 1.29222 1.29161 1.29169 -0.0011
USD/CHF 0.96893 0.96919 0.96838 0.96866 0.0036
USD/CAD 1.31767 1.3179 1.31695 1.31719 0.0032
EUR/JPY 128.323 128.339 128.205 128.291 -0.4150
GBP/JPY 143.379 143.455 143.315 143.414 0.2560
CHF/JPY 114.532 114.584 114.492 114.571 -0.1370
AUD/JPY 78.814 78.90 78.814 78.892 -0.7850
EUR/GBP 0.89436 0.89461 0.89424 0.89433 -0.0045
EUR/CHF 1.1202 1.12034 1.11936 1.11944 -0.0022
GBP/CHF 1.25201 1.25204 1.25119 1.25139 0.0037

   

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1547 1.1551 1.1553 1.1557 1.1559 1.1563 1.1565
USD/JPY 110.82 110.86 110.94 110.98 111.06 111.11 111.18
GBP/USD 1.2909 1.2912 1.2915 1.2918 1.2921 1.2925 1.2927
USD/CHF 0.9675 0.9679 0.9683 0.9687 0.9691 0.9696 0.9699
USD/CAD 1.3158 1.3164 1.3168 1.3173 1.3177 1.3183 1.3187
EUR/JPY 128.08 128.14 128.22 128.28 128.35 128.41 128.49
GBP/JPY 143.19 143.25 143.33 143.39 143.47 143.53 143.61
CHF/JPY 114.42 114.46 114.51 114.55 114.61 114.64 114.70
AUD/JPY 78.75 78.78 78.84 78.87 78.92 78.95 79.01
EUR/GBP 0.8938 0.8940 0.8942 0.8944 0.8945 0.8948 0.8949
EUR/CHF 1.1181 1.1187 1.1191 1.1197 1.1201 1.1207 1.1210
GBP/CHF 1.2502 1.2507 1.2510 1.2515 1.2519 1.2524 1.2527

 

 

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

 

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

07 Sep 2018

Daily Market View

   

Daily Market View

Friday, September 07, 2018
          U.S Stock Market

 

DJIA S & P 500 NASDAQ
26021 2878.75 7456.75
-0.10% -0.04% -0.09%

The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ finished lower for a third session yesterday on mounting concerns about contagion from a handful of struggling emerging economies on top of unresolved trade tension. Technology stocks again weighed on the U.S market while energy shares also fell on weak crude prices. The S&P 500 index shed 10.55 points, or 0.4%, and the NASDAQ slid 72.45 points, or 0.9%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average erased earlier losses to rise 20.88 points. The energy sector sank 1.9%, the weakest performer of the day, while tech lost 0.8%. Turmoil in Argentina and Turkey, as their currencies continue to sink on deteriorating confidence, is dragging on the global market as investors fear a spillover effect on other healthier emerging markets and beyond. On the trade front, the U.S. and Canada continued high-stakes negotiations in the effort to revamp the North American Free Trade Agreement, which President Donald Trump said he is prepared to move forward with even without Canada’s participation.

 

Major Economic Releases for Today
Period Event GMT Forecast Previous

        jul

Japan Labor Cash Earnings (YoY) 00:00 2.4% 3.3%

aug

Switzerland Unemployment Rate 05:45 2.4% 2.4%

jul

German Trade Balance 06:00 19.5b 21.8b

aug

BoE/TNS Inflation Next 12 Mths 08:30   2.9%

aug

Canada Unemployment Rate 12:30 5.9% 5.8%

aug

Canada Net Change in Employment 12:30 5.0k 54.1k

aug

U.S Change in Non-Farm Payrolls 12:30 195k 157k

aug

U.S Unemployment Rate 12:30 3.8% 3.9%

aug

U.S Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) 12:30 2.7% 2.7%
Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.08%. The best performers of the session on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were Boeing Co, which rose 1.32% or 4.59 points to trade at 351.27 at the close. Meanwhile, Visa Inc. added 1.28% or 1.83 points to end at 144.50 and Merck & Company Inc. was up 1.11% or 0.76 points to 69.38 in late trade. The worst performers of the session were Chevron Corp, which fell 3.10% or 3.69 points to trade at 115.23 at the close. Apple Inc. declined 1.66% or 3.77 points to end at 223.10 and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. was down 1.28% or 3.04 points to 234.52.

 

NASDAQ 100

The tech heavy NASDAQ index lost 0.91% yesterday. The top performers on the NASDAQ Composite were Gemphire Therapeutics Inc. which rose 42.04% to 2.23, Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc. which was up 37.52% to settle at 19.39 and WSI Industries Inc. which gained 33.01% to close at 6.850. The worst performers were Iovance Biotherapeutics Inc. which was down 24.78% to 12.750 in late trade, Mercantil Bank Holding Corp Class A which lost 19.80% to settle at 20.25 and Dicerna Pharmaceuticals Inc. which was down 18.11% to 13.020 at the close.

Oil

Crude futures reversed course, falling more than $1 a barrel yesterday after U.S data showed gasoline inventories rose last week, overshadowing a bullish drawdown in crude. U.S crude inventories fell more than expected last week as refining runs increased, while gasoline and distillate inventories rose, the EIA said yesterday. Stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, and delivery hub for U.S crude futures rose by 549,000 barrels, EIA said. The slow climb back of crude oil levels at Cushing is somewhat bearish, and the absence of Chinese buyers of U.S crude oil is depressing export volumes. U.S WTI crude futures fell $1.40 to $67.32 a barrel, a two percent loss. Earlier in the session, WTI had traded higher, encouraged by a weaker dollar and evidence of strong U.S fuel demand. Emerging market stocks, bonds and currencies have plunged in recent weeks in response to financial crises in places like Turkey, South Africa and Venezuela.

 

Precious and Base Metals

Gold clawed higher yesterday, propelled by a weaker dollar, short-covering and physical buying in Asia. Worries about new U.S. trade tariffs on China cast a cloud over the market, however. We’re seeing a little bit of a relief rally for the precious metals. The relief bounce and gold’s strong oversold conditions are leading some investors to short-cover. The bottom is very close because I think the U.S. dollar is close to reaching the top, together with the peak of the U.S economy. Spot gold gained 0.3 percent at $1,199.68 per after rising 0.5 percent in the previous session. U.S gold futures for December delivery settled up $3, or 0.3 percent, at $1,204.30 per ounce. Gold has tumbled more than 12 percent from a peak of $1,365.23 in April. The price levels have recently sparked a lot of physical buying, not just in active gold-buying countries like India and China but also in Southeast Asia for investment purposes, traders and analysts said. India’s gold imports more than doubled in August to their highest level in 15 months as lower prices prompted manufacturers to replenish inventory. China’s yuan weakened against the dollar on Thursday as investors braced for more sweeping tariffs expected soon from Washington, making gold expensive for buyers in the world’s biggest consumer. Gold has been under pressure for most of this year on rising interest rates, global trade tensions, and an emerging-market currency crisis, with investors parking their money in the dollar, undermining the metal’s safe-haven status. The dollar fell against a basket of six major currencies. Markets will closely watch a U.S. employment report due on Friday for clues about the pace of interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve. This week’s non-farm payrolls data could strengthen the dollar further and push gold down. But it is likely to take support near $1,140. Spot silver lost percent at $14.14 per ounce. The metal hit an over 2-1/2-year low at $13.97 early this week.

 

 

Traditional Agriculture

Wheat futures fell for the third day in a row to their lowest in more than seven weeks yesterday on expectations that U.S supplies will continue to struggle to gain traction on the global export market. Corn futures ended firm, supported by bargain buying.

 

 

Futures Settlement Price Thursday, September 06, 2018
Instrument Contract Open High Low Settlement Net Change
DJIA DJM18 25976 26092 25892 26021 51
S & P 500 SPM18 2888.5 2892.75 2867.75 2878.75 -9.5
NASDAQ 100 NDM18 7530.75 7544 7407.5 7456.75 -74.25
Hang Seng HSH18 26971 27218 26764 26980 -118
Nikkei 225 NKH18 22530 22540 22430 22510 -45
FTSE 100 FTH18 7379 7398.5 7307.5 7340.5 -56.5
Gold GCJ18 1202.6 1212.4 1200.4 1205.1 3
Silver SIK18 1421.5 1432.5 1412 1417 -3.5
Copper HGK18 261.95 267.15 261 263.55 1.5
Crude Oil CLK18 68.6 68.96 66.97 67.85 -0.75
Wheat WK18 522 524.25 512.25 513.5 -8
Soybeans SK18 839 842.5 834.5 839.25 1.75
Corn CK18 365.75 367.25 363.25 366 1.5

 

 

Daily Swings  (The Pivot Levels)
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
DJM18 25711 25802 25911 26002 26111 26202 26311
SPM18 2841.75 2854.75 2866.75 2879.75 2891.75 2904.75 2916.75
NDM18 7258.33 7332.92 7394.83 7469.42 7531.33 7605.92 7667.83
HSH18 26303 26533 26757 26987 27211 27441 27665
NKH18 22337 22383 22447 22493 22557 22603 22667
FTH18 7208.17 7257.83 7299.17 7348.83 7390.17 7439.83 7481.17
GCJ18 1187.53 1193.97 1199.53 1205.97 1211.53 1217.97 1223.53
SIK18 1388.00 1400.00 1408.50 1420.50 1429.00 1441.00 1449.50
HGK18 254.50 257.75 260.65 263.90 266.80 270.05 272.95
CLK18 64.90 65.94 66.89 67.93 68.88 69.92 70.87
WK18 497.08 504.67 509.08 516.67 521.08 528.67 533.08
SK18 827.00 830.75 835.00 838.75 843.00 846.75 851.00
CK18 359.75 361.50 363.75 365.50 367.75 369.50 371.75

 

 

 Source: – News & Quotes (Courtesy:  Reuters)                                                                    

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

 

 

 

07 Sep 2018

FOREX Newsletter

 

FOREX Newsletter

September 07, 2018
 

 

Pulse of the Market

·      Today’s U.S Non-Farm Payrolls report will have a significant impact on USD/JPY

·      German yields have been under pressure all day and factory orders tumbled in July

·      The British Pound remained resilient as investors look forward to Brexit progress

·      Labor market numbers are also due for release from Canada in today’s session

Today’s non-farm payrolls report is very important with a Federal Reserve rate hike expected later this month. The jobs report is crucial to shaping expectations for the Fed meeting. With the market pricing in 96.3% chance of a hike, the U.S economy would have to report job losses for the central bank to pass on tightening this month. However, the question is not if the Fed would hike but whether it would be a dovish or hawkish hike. If the jobs report is strong with average hourly earnings rising by 0.3% or more, investors will expect the central bank to be optimistic, leaving the door open to another hike in December. If payrolls rise by fewer than 150K jobs and wage growth slows to 0.2% or worse, the selloff in the greenback would be more significant with EUR/USD potentially squeezing above the 100-day SMA at 1.1710. Data hasn’t been great with German factory orders falling sharply but Italian yields continue to fall, which is good news for the euro. USD/JPY sold off sharply yesterday despite stronger service sector activity and improved jobless claims. There are at least 4 reasons to explain the pair’s move. To start USD/JPY began the NY session under pressure after the Bank of Japan admitted that the idea of reducing the number of days they would buy bonds is akin to tapering. Secondly, investors are nervous about China-US trade talks. Treasury yields were also under pressure throughout the day and when 111.10 broke, stops were triggered and USD/JPY extended its losses quickly. Today’s NFP report will have a significant impact on USD/JPY. Good data will take the pair back above 111 while bad data could cause it to extend its losses to 110.00. Sterling extended its gains versus the dollar while EUR/USD hit 1.1659 before turning lower. There was no specific reason for the reversal in sterling but for the euro, German yields have been under pressure all day and factory orders tumbled in July. Sterling remained resilient as investors look forward to Brexit progress. The Swiss Franc has been unusually strong and is the day’s best-performing currency next to the yen. Stronger than expected GDP contributes to today’s gains but investors are also actively unwinding their short franc positions from the beginning of the year.

 

 

Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
00:00 Japan Labor Cash Earnings (YoY) (JUL) Medium   2.4% 3.3%
05:45 Switzerland Unemployment Rate (AUG) Medium   2.4% 2.4%
06:00 German Trade Balance (JUL) Medium   19.5b 21.8b
06:00 German Industrial Production n.s.a. and w.d.a. (YoY) (JUL) Medium   2.6% 2.5%
08:30 BoE/TNS Inflation Next 12 Mths (AUG) High     2.9%
09:00 Euro-Zone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY) (2Q) Medium   2.2% 2.2%
12:30 Canada Unemployment Rate (AUG) High   5.9% 5.8%
12:30 Canada Net Change in Employment (AUG) High   5.0k 54.1k
12:30 U.S Change in Non-Farm Payrolls (AUG) High   195k 157k
12:30 U.S Unemployment Rate (AUG) High   3.8% 3.9%
12:30 U.S Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (AUG) Medium   2.7% 2.7%
17:00 Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count (SEP 7) Medium   $3115.00b  

 

Euro

The single currency has avoided falling closer to its worst levels though, thanks to some decent Eurozone data. As uncertainties about US trade protectionism worsened again this week, the Euro to US Dollar exchange rate has spent most of the week trending lower. EUR/USD may be on track to see another week of minimal movement. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1604 and a high of 1.1657 before closing the day around 1.1621 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen posted considerable gains yesterday. In economic news, unemployment claims dropped to 203 thousand, beating the estimate of 214 thousand. However, ADP Nonfarm Payrolls disappointed with a reading of 163 thousand. This was well below the forecast of 195 thousand. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI climbed to 58.5. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 110.50 and a high of 111.51 before closing the day around 110.73 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound overturned earlier losses to record a strong gain against the Dollar and other major currencies late in the mid-week session as the currency’s Brexit yo-yo continues. It appears a report about the potential softening of demands made by the EU, combined with comments from chief EU negotiator Michel Barnier, are behind the move. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.2894 and a high of 1.2960 before closing the day at 1.2927 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar strengthened against the greenback yesterday, recovering from a nearly seven-week low earlier in the day after a senior Bank of Canada official said the central bank had discussed the pace at which it could raise interest rates. On Wednesday, the Bank of Canada left its policy rate on hold at 1.50 per cent. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.3125 and a high of 1.3224 before closing the day at 1.3140 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar fell earlier in yesterday’s session but reversed its losses after official data showed the economy growing at its fastest pace for nearly six years during the second quarter, as continued financial instability in the emerging world and a “risk-off” mood in markets overshadowed better domestic news flow for investors. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7164 and a high of 0.7209 before closing the day at 0.7197 in the New York session.

 

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 56 and lies above the neutral zone. In general, the pair has lost 0.76%.

 

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and below 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish tone and MACD is indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 51 reading and lies above the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.52%.

  

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading above 14 and below 50, 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 39 reading and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.63%.

 

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bearish tone and MACD is also issuing a bearish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 55 and lies above the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.23%.

  

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bullish stance and MACD is indicating a bearish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 33 and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.49%.

 

Appendix

 

FOREX Closing Prices for September 06, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.16294 1.16578 1.1604 1.16219 -0.0007
USD/JPY 111.497 111.513 110.501 110.731 -0.7770
GBP/USD 1.2903 1.29601 1.28945 1.29274 0.0023
USD/CHF 0.97159 0.97204 0.96486 0.96503 -0.0065
USD/CAD 1.3179 1.32241 1.31258 1.314 -0.0035
EUR/JPY 129.684 129.814 128.473 128.706 -0.9800
GBP/JPY 143.879 144.212 142.919 143.158 -0.7460
CHF/JPY 114.728 114.91 114.378 114.708 -0.0290
AUD/JPY 80.146 80.254 79.534 79.677 -0.5080
EUR/GBP 0.90103 0.9017 0.89724 0.89886 -0.0021
EUR/CHF 1.12994 1.13092 1.12153 1.12162 -0.0084
GBP/CHF 1.25384 1.25533 1.24715 1.24766 -0.0062

 

 

 

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1544 1.1574 1.1598 1.1628 1.1652 1.1682 1.1706
USD/JPY 109.31 109.90 110.32 110.92 111.33 111.93 112.34
GBP/USD 1.2829 1.2862 1.2895 1.2927 1.2960 1.2993 1.3026
USD/CHF 0.9554 0.9601 0.9626 0.9673 0.9698 0.9745 0.9769
USD/CAD 1.3004 1.3065 1.3103 1.3163 1.3201 1.3262 1.3299
EUR/JPY 126.84 127.66 128.18 129.00 129.52 130.34 130.86
GBP/JPY 141.35 142.14 142.65 143.43 143.94 144.72 145.23
CHF/JPY 113.89 114.13 114.42 114.67 114.95 115.20 115.48
AUD/JPY 78.67 79.10 79.39 79.82 80.11 80.54 80.83
EUR/GBP 0.8924 0.8948 0.8968 0.8993 0.9013 0.9037 0.9058
EUR/CHF 1.1091 1.1153 1.1185 1.1247 1.1279 1.1341 1.1372
GBP/CHF 1.2366 1.2419 1.2448 1.2500 1.2529 1.2582 1.2611

 

 

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

 

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

05 Sep 2018

Daily Market View

   

Daily Market View

Wednesday, September 05, 2018
          U.S Stock Market

 

DJIA S & P 500 NASDAQ
25992 2899.00 7640.50
-0.08% -0.20% -0.23%

Stocks fell yesterday as trade tensions between the U.S and key partners increased to start off the one of the toughest parts of the year for equity investors. The S&P 500 pulled back 0.3 percent with telecom and materials lagging. The NASDAQ dropped 0.4 percent, led by a decline in Facebook shares, which counterbalanced a gain in Amazon that made it the second U.S.-company to reach $1 trillion in market cap. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 20 points as Nike and Verizon lagged. Last week, the U.S. and Canada failed to secure an agreement to replace the current NAFTA pact by last Friday’s deadline. While a deal has been arranged with Mexico, President Donald Trump tweeted over the weekend that there was “no political necessity to keep Canada in the new NAFTA deal.” Trump added that Congress shouldn’t intervene in the talks, and claimed that if it did, he would “simply terminate NAFTA entirely.” Trade talks with Canada are however expected to reignite this week.

 

Major Economic Releases for Today
Period Event GMT Forecast Previous

        aug

Nikkei Japan PMI Services 00:30   51.3

         2Q

Australia Gross Domestic Product (YoY) 01:30 2.8% 3.1%

aug

Caixin China PMI Services 01:45 52.6 52.8

aug

Markit Germany Services PMI 07:55 55.2  

aug

Markit Eurozone Services PMI 08:00 54.4  

aug

Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI 08:30 53.9 53.5

jul

Euro-Zone Retail Sales (YoY) 09:00 1.3% 1.2%

jul

U.S Trade Balance 12:30 -$50.0b -$46.3b

sep

Bank of Canada Rate Decision 14:00 1.50% 1.50%
Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.05%. The best performers of the session on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were Home Depot Inc., which rose 2.15% or 4.31 points to trade at 205.08 at the close. Meanwhile, Boeing Co added 1.01% or 3.46 points to end at 346.25 and American Express Company was up 0.97% or 1.03 points to 107.01 in late trade. The worst performers of the session were Nike Inc., which fell 3.16% or 2.60 points to trade at 79.60 at the close. Verizon Communications Inc. declined 2.17% or 1.18 points to end at 53.19 and Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. was down 1.37% or 0.94 points to 67.62.

 

NASDAQ 100

NASDAQ lost 0.23%. The top performers on the were Mercantil Bank Holding Corp Class B which rose 1000.00% to 200.00, Mercantil Bank Holding Corp Class A which was up 518.00% to settle at 58.03 and MannKind Corp which gained 89.09% to close at 2.080. The worst performers were Aeglea Bio Therapeutics Inc. which was down 15.46% to 9.24 in late trade, Apricus Biosciences Inc. which lost 15.15% to settle at 0.280.

Oil

Oil prices rose earlier in the session yesterday as the market prepared for potential supply disruptions due to a hurricane forecast to hit the U.S Gulf Coast, but gains were changed in losses by a report that Cushing, Oklahoma, stockpiles rose last week. U.S West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell after hitting a session high of $71.40. U.S markets were closed on Monday for Labor Day. Oil jumped earlier after the evacuation of two Gulf of Mexico oil platforms in preparation for Tropical Storm Gordon. The storm was expected to become a hurricane before it makes landfall as a Category 1 hurricane near the Mississippi-Alabama border. Vessel traffic along the U.S. Gulf Coast on Tuesday was under restrictions ahead of Gordon. The Gulf of Mexico is home to 17 percent of U.S. crude oil production and 5 percent of natural gas output daily, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Prices pulled back from earlier highs after Cushing, Oklahoma, crude inventories rose nearly 754,000 barrels from Aug. 24 to Friday.

 

 

Precious and Base Metals

Gold slipped yesterday as concerns over an escalating trade war between the United States and China battered emerging market currencies and prompted investors to seek perceived safety in the dollar. A stronger greenback makes dollar-priced gold costlier for non-U.S. investors. The U.S. dollar index rallied as the public comment period on a U.S. proposal for new tariffs on Chinese goods is set to end on Thursday, after which Washington can follow through on plans to impose tariffs on $200 billion more of Chinese imports. Emerging market currencies such as the Argentine peso, Turkish lira, South African rand, Brazilian real, Indonesian rupiah and Indian rupee sank as investors’ fear these export-oriented economies will be caught in the escalating trade war. The dollar’s status as the chief reserve currency makes it the primary beneficiary of trade conflicts. As long as the dollar focus remains strong, upside potential seems limited for gold. The Chinese Yuan has been the major driver for weakness in gold and it has stabilized over the past couple of weeks after the central bank signaled they’re prepared to stabilize it. Spot gold lost 0.6 percent at $1,193.78 an ounce, earlier sinking to $1,189.20, a 2-1/2-week low. U.S gold futures for December delivery fell $7.50, or 0.6 percent, at $1,199.20 per ounce. Silver hit a 2-1/2 year low of $13.97 an ounce, later partly recovering to trade 2.2 percent down at $14.14. Gold has lost about 8 percent this year amid rising U.S. interest rates, trade disputes, and the Turkish currency crisis, with investors parking their money in the dollar. Gold and silver should bottom out at the current level as they should attract physical buying amid the ongoing festival season in India. Dull economic activities may result in some safe haven buying in China. Gold could find support around $1,180 per ounce. Platinum was down 1.40 percent at $772.50 per ounce, earlier hitting $761.80, its lowest since Aug.

 

 

Traditional Agriculture

Wheat futures dropped 2.5 percent yesterday to a one-week low after Russia’s agriculture ministry said it had no plans to restrict grain exports from the world’s biggest wheat supplier. Soybeans ended slightly firmer after trading in both positive and negative territory during the session.

 

 

Futures Settlement Price Tuesday, September 04, 2018
Instrument Contract Open High Low Settlement Net Change
DJIA DJM18 26024 26039 25963 25992 -37
S & P 500 SPM18 2907.5 2909 2899 2899 -9.5
NASDAQ 100 NDM18 7680.75 7684 7640.5 7640.5 -41.5
Hang Seng HSH18 27544 27885 27448 27885 234
Nikkei 225 NKH18 22780 22800 22610 22780 60
FTSE 100 FTH18 7498.5 7528 7430 7446 -41
Gold GCJ18 1206.3 1207.3 1197.4 1197.4 -9.9
Silver SIK18 1452 1453.5 1420 1420 -34.5
Copper HGK18 265.45 266.4 260.45 260.45 -5.5
Crude Oil CLK18 70.09 70.11 69.44 69.44 -0.73
Wheat WK18 536.75 542 531.75 531.75 -14.5
Soybeans SK18 843.25 844.5 841 844.5 -0.25
Corn CK18 365.25 369 365 369 3

 

 

Daily Swings  (The Pivot Levels)
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
DJM18 25881 25922 25957 25998 26033 26074 26109
SPM18 2885.67 2892.33 2895.67 2902.33 2905.67 2912.33 2915.67
NDM18 7582.50 7611.50 7626.00 7655.00 7669.50 7698.50 7713.00
HSH18 27157 27302 27594 27739 28031 28176 28468
NKH18 22470 22540 22660 22730 22850 22920 23040
FTH18 7310.00 7370.00 7408.00 7468.00 7506.00 7566.00 7604.00
GCJ18 1184.20 1190.80 1194.10 1200.70 1204.00 1210.60 1213.90
SIK18 1375.33 1397.67 1408.83 1431.17 1442.33 1464.67 1475.83
HGK18 252.52 256.48 258.47 262.43 264.42 268.38 270.37
CLK18 68.55 68.99 69.22 69.66 69.89 70.33 70.56
WK18 518.08 524.92 528.33 535.17 538.58 545.42 548.83
SK18 838.67 839.83 842.17 843.33 845.67 846.83 849.17
CK18 362.33 363.67 366.33 367.67 370.33 371.67 374.33

 

 

 Source: – News & Quotes (Courtesy:  Reuters)                                                                    

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

 

 

 

 

05 Sep 2018

FOREX Newsletter

     

FOREX Newsletter

September 05, 2018
 

 

·      ISM manufacturing data for August rose to a reading of 61.3, beating expectations of 57.6Pulse of the Market

·      Pound fell as Brexit-related worries and weaker U.K construction data weighed on the latter

·      Trade talks with Canada remained at an impasse after stalling on Friday

·      The Canadian Dollar weakened to a six-week low against its U.S. counterpart yesterday

The U.S Dollar extended gains against a currency basket yesterday as U.S markets re-opened after the Labor Day holiday, with trade tensions and market turmoil in Argentina and Turkey underpinning demand. The U.S Dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of six major currencies, was up 0.48% to 95.52, the highest level since August 24. Demand for the dollar was bolstered by the risk-off mood in markets amid fears over the impact on global growth from the Trump administration’s protectionist trade policies and strains in emerging markets. U.S. President Donald Trump said last week he was ready to implement tariffs on an additional $200 billion worth of imports from China as soon as Thursday, which would ratchet up the trade row with Beijing. Meanwhile, trade talks with Canada remained at an impasse after stalling on Friday, with Trump threatening to leave Canada out of a new deal already negotiated with Mexico. The dollar was higher against the yen, with USD/JPY rising 0.28%. The euro fell more than half a cent against the firmer dollar, with EUR/USD down 0.57%. The pound was also pressured lower, with GBP/USD sliding 0.23% as worries over the prospect of a no-deal Brexit continued to weigh. In emerging markets, Turkey’s lira was pressured lower amid lingering concerns over the country’s economic and currency crisis. U.S manufacturing business conditions surged in August to a 14-year high, according to a survey of industry executives. ISM manufacturing data for August rose to a reading of 61.3, beating expectations of 57.6. A reading above 50 in the ISM index indicates an expansion in manufacturing, which accounts for about 12% of the U.S. economy. The Trump administration could impose a 25% tariff on $200 billion worth of Chinese imported goods later this week. Reports surfaced last week, claiming Trump was considering moving ahead with the tariffs on China after the comment period expires on Thursday. The Canadian dollar fell against its U.S counterpart yesterday after President Donald Trump said the U.S and Mexico could move forward without Canada in a new NAFTA deal.

 

 

Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
00:30 Nikkei Japan PMI Services (AUG) Medium     51.3
01:30 Australia Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (2Q) High   2.8% 3.1%
01:45 Caixin China PMI Services (AUG) Medium   52.6 52.8
07:55 Markit Germany Services PMI (AUG) Low   55.2  
08:00 Markit Eurozone Services PMI (AUG) Low   54.4  
08:30 Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI (AUG) Medium   53.9 53.5
09:00 Euro-Zone Retail Sales (YoY) (JUL) Medium   1.3% 1.2%
11:00 U.S MBA Mortgage Applications (AUG 31) Medium      
12:30 U.S Trade Balance (JUL) Medium   -$50.0b -$46.3b
13:20 U.S Fed’s Bullard Speaks in New York Low      
14:00 Bank of Canada Rate Decision (SEP 5) High   1.50% 1.50%
23:50 Japan Foreign Buying Japan Bonds (AUG 31) Low      
23:50 Japan Foreign Buying Japan Stocks (AUG 31) Low      

 

Euro

The single currency fell despite the Euro zone producer prices rose slightly more than forecast in July, driven by expensive energy, data released yesterday by the European Union statistics agency showed. Eurostat said prices at factory gates in the 19 countries sharing the euro rose 0.4 percent month-on-month in July. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1583 and a high of 1.1619 before closing the day around 1.1583 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen pair extended gained yesterday, rising nearly half a percent, as concerns about a possible escalation in trade conflict between the United States and China prompted investors to dump emerging market currencies. The public comment period on a U.S proposal for new tariffs on Chinese goods is set to end on Thursday. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 110.88 and a high of 111.45 before closing the day around 111.45 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound fell yesterday following a drop in the most recent industry survey from the UK with the GBP/USD rate falling further to trade at its lowest level in over a week. However, it should be noted that this appears to be more a case of strength in the buck and a look at other GBP pairs reveals that the pound is actually little changed. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.2852 and a high of 1.2874 before closing the day at 1.2855 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar weakened to a six-week low yesterday amid an uncertain outlook for Canada’s trading arrangement with the United States and ahead of an interest rate decision this week by the Bank of Canada. Canada and the United States ended talks to revamp the NAFTA on Friday without reaching a deal. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.3087 and a high of 1.3189 before closing the day at 1.3189 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar suddenly fell as global markets absorb a rash of weak news about the Australian economy. The engine of Australia’s economy is sputtering a bit, and that is making our dollar suddenly unpopular. Retail sales figures came out on Monday and they fell short of expectations. Now, growth was not expected to shoot the lights out in the month of July. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7155 and a high of 0.7233 before closing the day at 0.7176 in the New York session.

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 54 and lies above the neutral zone. In general, the pair has gained 0.02%.

 

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and below 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish tone and MACD is indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 47 reading and lies below the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has gained 0.22%.

  

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading above 14 and below 50, 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 36 reading and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.20%.

  

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bearish tone and MACD is also issuing a bearish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 55 and lies above the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.20%.

  

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bullish stance and MACD is indicating a bearish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 32 and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.42%.

 

Appendix

 

FOREX Closing Prices for September 04, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.16185 1.16196 1.15832 1.15832 -0.0038
USD/JPY 111.035 111.459 110.881 111.459 0.3790
GBP/USD 1.287 1.28743 1.28523 1.28554 -0.0017
USD/CHF 0.96906 0.97455 0.96869 0.97455 0.0052
USD/CAD 1.3093 1.31898 1.30872 1.31898 0.0094
EUR/JPY 128.99 129.092 128.693 129.092 0.0280
GBP/JPY 142.987 143.289 142.634 143.289 0.3200
CHF/JPY 114.545 114.617 114.341 114.341 -0.2670
AUD/JPY 80.083 80.119 79.776 79.972 -0.1580
EUR/GBP 0.90259 0.90259 0.90108 0.90108 -0.0018
EUR/CHF 1.12596 1.12876 1.12458 1.12876 0.0024
GBP/CHF 1.24746 1.25283 1.2465 1.25283 0.0053

  

 

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1535 1.1559 1.1571 1.1595 1.1607 1.1632 1.1644
USD/JPY 110.50 110.69 111.07 111.27 111.65 111.84 112.23
GBP/USD 1.2825 1.2839 1.2847 1.2861 1.2869 1.2883 1.2891
USD/CHF 0.9648 0.9667 0.9706 0.9726 0.9765 0.9785 0.9824
USD/CAD 1.3019 1.3053 1.3121 1.3156 1.3224 1.3258 1.3327
EUR/JPY 128.43 128.56 128.83 128.96 129.23 129.36 129.62
GBP/JPY 142.20 142.42 142.85 143.07 143.51 143.73 144.16
CHF/JPY 113.97 114.16 114.25 114.43 114.53 114.71 114.80
AUD/JPY 79.45 79.61 79.79 79.96 80.14 80.30 80.48
EUR/GBP 0.8991 0.9001 0.9006 0.9016 0.9021 0.9031 0.9036
EUR/CHF 1.1218 1.1232 1.1260 1.1274 1.1302 1.1315 1.1343
GBP/CHF 1.2423 1.2444 1.2486 1.2507 1.2549 1.2571 1.2613

 

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

04 Sep 2018

FOREX Newsletter

FOREX Newsletter

September 04, 2018

 

  Pulse of the Market

·      The U.S Dollar held steady near one-week highs against a currency basket yesterday

·      The British Pound eased yesterday as a no-Brexit deal continued to weigh on the currency

·      Escalation of the trade war between the U.S and China weighed on market sentiment

·      Trade volumes remained thin, with U.S financial markets closed for the Labor Day holiday

The U.S Dollar consolidated near a one-week high against a basket of currencies yesterday as tensions around global trade and a continued selloff in emerging markets fueled demand for the greenback. U.S. President Donald Trump said on Saturday there was no need to keep Canada in the North American Free Trade Agreement and warned Congress not to meddle with the talks to revamp NAFTA or he would terminate the trilateral pact altogether. Trade tensions are broadly supporting the dollar, but the market is hardly very conducive of risk. The U.S currency’s status as the chief reserve currency makes it the primary beneficiary of concern over trade conflicts. Traders have bought the dollar against the British pound and the Canadian dollar among others. On a positioning basis, markets are firmly in the stronger dollar camp, with net outstanding positions holding just off the highest levels since January 2017, calculations by Reuters and Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. Investors are also jittery about emerging markets, many of which are seeing an exodus of capital. Countries such as Argentina and Turkey are already in crisis, with the Argentine peso falling more than 4 percent on the day against the dollar and the Turkish lira losing 2 percent. Pressures are building elsewhere too, with the Indonesian rupiah hitting a 20-year low and the Indian rupee at a record low. The euro slipped 0.11 percent against the dollar after data showed euro zone manufacturing growth slowing to a nearly two-year low in August as optimism dwindled due to the fears of an escalating global trade war. Sterling was the standout loser of the day as new concerns about Brexit negotiations and weak UK manufacturing data combined to push the British currency down 0.8 percent. Despite a busy week in term of economic data, political and geopolitical developments will remain the main driver in the FX market this week. In the US, August’s ISM manufacturing will be released today; ADP employment change will be published on Wednesday; August’s s ISM non-manufacturing PMI and durable goods orders will be released on Thursday; finally, the labor report is due on Friday.

 

 

 

Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
01:30 Australia Current Account Balance (Australian Dollar) (2Q) Medium   -A$11.0b -A$10.5b
04:30 RBA Cash Rate Target (SEP 4) High   1.50% 1.50%
07:15 Switzerland Consumer Price Index (YoY) (AUG) Medium   1.2% 1.2%
08:30 Markit/CIPS UK Construction PMI (AUG) Medium   54.9 55.8
09:00 Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (YoY) (JUL) Low   3.9% 3.6%
09:30 RBA Governor Lowe speaks in Perth High      
12:15 BOE’s Carney, Haldane, Tenreyro, and Saunders Speak in London High      
13:30 RBC Canadian Manufacturing PMI (AUG) High     56.9
13:45 Markit US Manufacturing PMI (AUG) Low   54.5  
14:00 U.S Construction Spending (MoM) (JUL) Medium   0.4% -1.1%
14:00 U.S ISM Manufacturing (AUG) High   57.6 58.1
14:00 U.S ISM Employment (AUG) High     56.5
14:00 U.S ISM Prices Paid (AUG) Medium   69.5 73.2

Euro

The single currency showed little movement in yesterday’s trading session. On the release front, Eurozone and German Final Manufacturing PMIs both softened in August but were within expectations. U.S. markets are closed for Labor Day. In today’s session, the U.S releases ISM Manufacturing PMI. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1587 and a high of 1.1626 before closing the day around 1.1621 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen was unchanged in thin holiday trade. In economic news, Japanese Capital Spending jumped 12.8% in the second quarter, crushing the estimate of 6.6%. This marked the strongest reading since 2007. Final Manufacturing PMI edged up to 52.5 points, matching the forecast. There was some good news from Japan’s inflation front on Thursday. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 110.83 and a high of 111.16 before closing the day around 111.08 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound underperformed against major rivals at the start of the new week as a barrage of fresh Brexit developments combine with some below-expectation manufacturing data. The manufacturing PMI for August read at 52.8, below market expectations for a number of 53.9; the data suggesting the sector is cooling much faster than many had anticipated. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.2853 and a high of 1.2931 before closing the day at 1.2872 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar fell except the British pound. Last week, the Loonie initially rallied thanks to rising hopes for a NAFTA deal. Following a US-Mexico trade deal, the loonie gave up all of its earlier gains. Looking at Trump’s latest tweets over the weekend, the US president said that There is no political necessity to keep Canada in the new NAFTA deal. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.3042 and a high of 1.3100 before closing the day at 1.3095 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar has tumbled to a 20-month low, and there are several reasons why it may drop even further this week. Adding to the downward pressure was Canada and the United States ending their negotiations last week without agreeing to a new trade deal. The Reserve Bank will announce its interest rate decision today, but hardly any economists are expecting a rate hike. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7164 and a high of 0.7221 before closing the day at 0.7209 in the New York session.

 

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 52 and lies above the neutral zone. In general, the pair has gained 0.07%.

 

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and below 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish tone and MACD is indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 46 reading and lies below the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.71%.

  

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading above 14 and below 50, 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 37 reading and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.26%.

  

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bearish tone and MACD is also issuing a bearish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 58 and lies above the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has gained 0.79%.

  

Sterling-Swiss

 

This cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bullish stance and MACD is indicating a bearish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 25 and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.67%.

 

Appendix

  

FOREX Closing Prices for September 03, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.15977 1.16265 1.15875 1.16214 0.0012
USD/JPY 111.127 111.169 110.832 111.08 -0.0260
GBP/USD 1.29239 1.29318 1.28533 1.28723 -0.0088
USD/CHF 0.96928 0.97058 0.96814 0.96937 0.0002
USD/CAD 1.30545 1.31006 1.30425 1.30959 0.0049
EUR/JPY 128.898 129.126 128.552 129.064 0.0910
GBP/JPY 143.632 143.692 142.813 142.969 -1.0240
CHF/JPY 114.618 114.655 114.248 114.608 -0.0610
AUD/JPY 79.893 80.232 79.491 80.13 0.2040
EUR/GBP 0.89718 0.90313 0.89681 0.90286 0.0071
EUR/CHF 1.12422 1.12697 1.12381 1.12637 0.0014
GBP/CHF 1.25281 1.25396 1.24671 1.24757 -0.0084

  

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1558 1.1573 1.1597 1.1612 1.1636 1.1651 1.1675
USD/JPY 110.55 110.69 110.89 111.03 111.22 111.36 111.56
GBP/USD 1.2761 1.2807 1.2840 1.2886 1.2918 1.2964 1.2997
USD/CHF 0.9657 0.9669 0.9681 0.9694 0.9706 0.9718 0.9730
USD/CAD 1.3001 1.3022 1.3059 1.3080 1.3117 1.3138 1.3175
EUR/JPY 128.13 128.34 128.70 128.91 129.28 129.49 129.85
GBP/JPY 141.75 142.28 142.62 143.16 143.50 144.04 144.38
CHF/JPY 113.95 114.10 114.35 114.50 114.76 114.91 115.17
AUD/JPY 78.93 79.21 79.67 79.95 80.41 80.69 81.15
EUR/GBP 0.8924 0.8946 0.8987 0.9009 0.9051 0.9073 0.9114
EUR/CHF 1.1213 1.1226 1.1245 1.1257 1.1276 1.1289 1.1308
GBP/CHF 1.2376 1.2422 1.2449 1.2494 1.2521 1.2567 1.2594

 

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

04 Sep 2018

Daily Market View

 

Daily Market View

Tuesday, September 04, 2018
          U.S Stock Market

 

DJIA S & P 500 NASDAQ
26022 2908.00 7681.00
-0.09% +0.01% +0.26%

U.S equity futures climbed higher in yesterday’s trading session. Emerging markets were lower, with Argentina slumped the most, while investors assessed the complex outlook for international trade. The pound weakened as the U.K’s flagship Brexit proposal came under attack at home and in Brussels. Argentina and Turkey are proving the latest epicenters for crises that are denting sentiment across emerging economies, which have underperformed developed markets after a stronger dollar and tighter trade policies sent shock waves from China to Brazil. U.S. stocks remain a point of light, reaching record highs last month even as the Federal Reserve prepares to raise interest rates again later in September. Elsewhere, copper extended week’s losses and oil climbed. Futures on the Dow, S&P and NASDAQ were higher, with exchanges closed yesterday for the Labor Day holiday.

 

Major Economic Releases for Today
Period Event GMT Forecast Previous

        sep

RBA Cash Rate Target 04:30 1.50% 1.50%

        aug

Switzerland Consumer Price Index (YoY) 07:15 1.2% 1.2%

 

RBA Governor Lowe speaks in Perth 09:30    

 

BOE’s Carney, Haldane, Tenreyro, and Saunders Speak 12:15    

aug

RBC Canadian Manufacturing PMI 13:30   56.9

aug

U.S ISM Manufacturing 14:00 57.6 58.1

aug

U.S ISM Employment 14:00   56.5

aug

U.S ISM Prices Paid 14:00 69.5 73.2

aug

Australia AiG Performance of Service Index 22:30   53.6
Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.09% on Friday. The best performers of the session on the Dow Jones were Cisco Systems Inc., which rose 1.31% or 0.62 points to trade at 47.77 at the close. Meanwhile, Nike Inc. added 1.23% or 1.00 points to end at 82.20 and Apple Inc. was up 1.16% or 2.60 points to 227.63 in late trade. The worst performers of the session were Boeing Co, which fell 1.18% or 4.11 points to trade at 342.79 at the close. Chevron Corp declined 1.13% or 1.35 points to end at 118.46 and Coca-Cola Company was down 0.85% or 0.38 points to 44.57.

 

NASDAQ 100

The NASDAQ index added 0.26%. The top performers on the NASDAQ were American Outdoor Brands Corp which rose 43.60% to 14.03, and Midatech Pharma PLC which gained 29.11% to close at 0.858. The worst performers were Bridgeline Digital Inc. which was down 15.94% to 1.1600 in late trade, CPI Card Group Inc. which lost 15.51% to settle at 3.16 and Wins Finance Holdings Inc. which was down 13.90% to 70.00 at the close.

Oil

Oil prices rose yesterday, supported by concerns that falling Iranian output will tighten markets once U.S sanctions bite from November, but gains were limited by higher supply from OPEC and the United States. U.S. crude was 30 cents higher at $70.10. The two benchmarks have risen strongly over the last two weeks with Brent gaining more than 10 percent on expectations that global supply will tighten later this year. During the U.S trading day the markets saw thin volumes due to the U.S Labor Day Holiday. The Saudi-led coalition fighting in Yemen said on Monday it had intercepted and destroyed a ballistic missile fired at the southern Saudi city of Jizan by the Iranian-aligned Houthis, who said separately they were targeting a Saudi Aramco facility. U.S sanctions are already curbing exports from Iran. Exports from OPEC’s third-biggest producer are falling faster than expected and worse is to come ahead of a looming second wave of U.S sanctions. Production by the OPEC rose 220,000 barrels per day (bpd) in August to a 2018 high of 32.79 million bpd.

 

 

 

Precious and Base Metals

Gold prices steadied yesterday as the dollar held near a one-week high on worries over an escalation in trade conflicts between the United States and its trading partners. A firmer U.S currency makes dollar-priced gold more expensive for holders of other currencies, potentially sapping demand. Safe-haven demand for gold has this year been overshadowed by the metal’s relationship with the greenback. U.S President Donald Trump said on Saturday there was no need to keep Canada in the North American Free Trade Agreement and warned Congress not to meddle with negotiations or he would terminate the trilateral trade pact, which also includes Mexico. Meanwhile, Bloomberg News reported that Trump was prepared to quickly ramp up a trade war with China and had told aides he was ready to impose tariffs on $200 billion more in Chinese imports as soon as a public comment period on the plan ends on Thursday. For as long as the trade war fears that are helping Dollar strength continue, gold is going to come under pressure. Gold prices are down about 8 percent so far this year against a backdrop of rising U.S. interest rates, trade disputes, and the Turkish currency crisis, with investors parking their money in the U.S dollar. Spot gold was mostly unchanged at $1,200.47 an ounce, after touching an intra-day low of $1,195.36. U.S gold futures were flat at $1,206.70 an ounce. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, was barely changed at 95.171. There was some indication that the bearish sentiment in the market has started to shift slightly as there was a reduction in net short positions in the COMEX gold contracts in the week to Aug. 28, the first time in more than a month. Major U.S economic data due this week, such as a manufacturing survey today and an employment report on Friday, could influence gold’s moves as investors are looking for clues on the pace of U.S interest rate hikes. Meanwhile, liquidations continued in SPDR Gold, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund.

 

 

 

Traditional Agriculture

Corn and soybean futures rose as traders covered short positions ahead of a long holiday weekend, but both commodities posted monthly declines as prospects for large U.S harvests weighed on prices.

 

 

 

Futures Settlement Price Monday, September 03, 2018
Instrument Contract Open High Low Settlement Net Change
DJIA DJM18 26019 26077 25958 26029 6
S & P 500 SPM18 2906.25 2912.25 2902.25 2908.5 2.5
NASDAQ 100 NDM18 7669.25 7686.5 7658 7682 13.5
Hang Seng HSH18 27644 27782 27512 27651 -117
Nikkei 225 NKH18 22815 22850 22690 22720 -150
FTSE 100 FTH18 7430.5 7510.5 7430 7487 45
Gold GCJ18 1203.8 1209.4 1202.8 1207.3 0.4
Silver SIK18 1446.5 1458 1443.5 1454.5 -3
Copper HGK18 266.25 267.95 265.25 265.95 -1.8
Crude Oil CLK18 69.9 70.17 69.5 70.17 0.26
Wheat WK18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Soybeans SK18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Corn CK18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

 

 

Daily Swings  (The Pivot Levels)
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
DJM18 25847 25902 25966 26021 26085 26140 26204
SPM18 2893.08 2897.67 2903.08 2907.67 2913.08 2917.67 2923.08
NDM18 7636.00 7647.00 7664.50 7675.50 7693.00 7704.00 7721.50
HSH18 27245 27378 27515 27648 27785 27918 28055
NKH18 22497 22593 22657 22753 22817 22913 22977
FTH18 7360.67 7395.33 7441.17 7475.83 7521.67 7556.33 7602.17
GCJ18 1197.00 1199.90 1203.60 1206.50 1210.20 1213.10 1216.80
SIK18 1431.50 1437.50 1446.00 1452.00 1460.50 1466.50 1475.00
HGK18 262.12 263.68 264.82 266.38 267.52 269.08 270.22
CLK18 69.05 69.28 69.72 69.95 70.39 70.62 71.06
WK18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SK18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
CK18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

 

 Source: – News & Quotes (Courtesy:  Reuters)                                                                    

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.