15 Ago 2018

FOREX Newsletter

     

FOREX Newsletter

August 15, 2018
 

 

Pulse of the Market

·      After a one day reprieve, investors returned to buying U.S Dollars yesterday

·      Investors are worried that Europe is ground zero for the next emerging market crisis

·      Sterling gave up earlier gains to end the day near its 1.2705 low

·      The performance of the commodity currencies was less consistent in yesterday’s session

   

 

Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
00:30 Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence (AUG) Medium     3.9%
01:30 China New Home Prices (MoM) (JUL) Medium     1.1%
08:30 U.K Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JUL) High   2.5% 2.4%
08:30 U.K Retail Price Index (YoY) (JUL) Low   3.4% 3.4%
08:30 U.K House Price Index (YoY) (JUN) Medium   2.6% 3.0%
11:00 U.S MBA Mortgage Applications (AUG 10) Medium      
12:30 U.S Empire Manufacturing (AUG) Low   20 22.6
12:30 U.S Retail Sales Advance (MoM) (JUL) High   0.1% 0.5%
13:00 Canada Existing Home Sales (MoM) (JUL) Medium     4.1%
13:15 U.S Industrial Production (MoM) (JUL) Medium   0.3% 0.6%
13:15 U.S Manufacturing (SIC) Production (JUL) Medium   0.3% 0.8%
14:00 U.S NAHB Housing Market Index (AUG) Medium   67 68
14:30 DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (AUG 10) Medium      
20:00 U.S Net Long-term TIC Flows (JUN) Medium     $45.6b
23:50 Japan Trade Balance (JUL) Medium   -¥41.2b ¥721.4b

 

Euro

The single currency fell yesterday despite Eurozone growth was better than expected in the second quarter, flash estimates from the European statistics office Eurostat showed, in a sign that the negative effect of global trade tensions might be seen only later in the year. Industrial output in the in 19-country currency bloc fell sharply in June. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1328 and a high of 1.1428 before closing the day around 1.1345 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen pair has been paring gains against the US Dollar since the start of this trading week with USD/JPY testing initial resistance yesterday in early US trade. Keep in mind we get the release of US Advanced Retail Sales tomorrow with University of Michigan confidence surveys on tap this Friday. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 110.56 and a high of 111.29 before closing the day around 111.15 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound fell in a response to UK labor market data which showed a sharp and unexpected dip in the country’s unemployment rate. UK’s unemployment rate was recorded at 4.0% by the Office for National Statistics; markets were expecting it to remain stuck at 4.2%. This represents the lowest unemployment rate since 1975. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.2702 and a high of 1.2825 before closing the day at 1.2722 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar strengthened against its U.S counterpart yesterday as the currency rebounded from a near three-week low the day before, supported by higher global stock prices and the ebbing threat from a collapse of the Turkish lira. Investors have worried that a crisis in Turkey could spread to other emerging market countries. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.3054 and a high of 1.3134 before closing the day at 1.3060 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar gained earlier in the session yesterday following a surprise increase in Australian business confidence. The NAB data release wasn’t entirely positive, however, and with risk aversion, still rife the Australian Dollar’s gains were reversed sharply and the Australian Dollar ended the day lower. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7222 and a high of 0.7281 before closing the day at 0.7234 in the New York session.

 

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is also issuing a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 27 and lies below the neutral zone. In general, the pair has lost 0.19%.

 

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish tone and MACD is also indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 23 reading and lies below the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has gained 0.04%.

  

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is also indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 32 reading and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.04%.

  

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bearish tone and MACD is issuing a bullish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 52 and lies above the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.23%.

  

 Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish stance and MACD is also indicating a bearish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 19 and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.26%.

 

Appendix

  

FOREX Closing Prices for August 14, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.1409 1.1428 1.13287 1.13458 -0.0066
USD/JPY 110.665 111.296 110.569 111.158 0.4330
GBP/USD 1.27649 1.28256 1.27027 1.27221 -0.0048
USD/CHF 0.99295 0.99489 0.98992 0.99432 0.0011
USD/CAD 1.31289 1.31342 1.30544 1.30601 -0.0076
EUR/JPY 126.272 126.968 125.785 126.109 -0.2360
GBP/JPY 141.284 142.449 140.979 141.436 0.0510
CHF/JPY 111.403 112.059 111.287 111.815 0.3300
AUD/JPY 80.465 80.783 80.182 80.485 -0.0320
EUR/GBP 0.89364 0.89438 0.88943 0.89179 -0.0021
EUR/CHF 1.1329 1.13525 1.12637 1.12797 -0.0055
GBP/CHF 1.26839 1.27261 1.26253 1.26534 -0.0034

 

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1208 1.1268 1.1307 1.1368 1.1406 1.1467 1.1506
USD/JPY 109.99 110.28 110.72 111.01 111.45 111.73 112.17
GBP/USD 1.2552 1.2627 1.2675 1.2750 1.2798 1.2873 1.2920
USD/CHF 0.9862 0.9881 0.9912 0.9930 0.9962 0.9980 1.0011
USD/CAD 1.2952 1.3003 1.3032 1.3083 1.3111 1.3163 1.3191
EUR/JPY 124.42 125.10 125.61 126.29 126.79 127.47 127.97
GBP/JPY 139.32 140.15 140.79 141.62 142.26 143.09 143.73
CHF/JPY 110.61 110.95 111.38 111.72 112.15 112.49 112.93
AUD/JPY 79.58 79.88 80.18 80.48 80.78 81.08 81.39
EUR/GBP 0.8844 0.8869 0.8894 0.8919 0.8943 0.8968 0.8993
EUR/CHF 1.1156 1.1210 1.1245 1.1299 1.1334 1.1387 1.1422
GBP/CHF 1.2510 1.2567 1.2610 1.2668 1.2711 1.2769 1.2812

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

 

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

15 Ago 2018

Daily Market View

   

Daily Market View

Wednesday, August 15, 2018
          U.S Stock Market

 

DJIA S & P 500 NASDAQ
25292 2841.00 7458.00
+0.45% +0.64% +0.65%

U.S stocks bounced back to close higher yesterday, with the S&P 500 snapping its longest losing streak since March as the worst of the panic over Turkey’s currency crisis abated, allowing investors to focus on a healthy domestic economy and strong corporate results. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 112.22 points, or 0.5%, supported by rallies in shares of Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. and McDonald’s Corp. The S&P 500 index climbed 18.03 points, or 0.6%, halting a four-day skid, and the NASDAQ gained 51.19 points, or 0.7%, after briefly slipping into negative territory early in the session.  Market participants focused on signs that Turkey is trying to stem a tumble in its currency that has slashed a third of its value over the past two weeks. On Monday, Turkey’s central bank pledged to provide “all the liquidity” the country’s financial institutions needed. The National Federation of Independent Business’ small-business optimism index rose 0.7 points in July to 107.9.

 

Major Economic Releases for Today
Period Event GMT Forecast Previous

jul

China New Home Prices (MoM) 01:30   1.1%

jul

U.K Consumer Price Index (YoY) 08:30 2.5% 2.4%

jun

U.K House Price Index (YoY) 08:30 2.6% 3.0%

aug

U.S MBA Mortgage Applications 11:00    

jul

U.S Retail Sales Advance (MoM) 12:30 0.1% 0.5%

jul

Canada Existing Home Sales (MoM) 13:00   4.1%

jul

U.S Industrial Production (MoM) 13:15 0.3% 0.6%

aug

U.S NAHB Housing Market Index 14:00 67 68

aug

DOE U.S Crude Oil Inventories 14:30    
Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.45% yesterday. The best performers of the session on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc., which rose 3.28% or 2.18 points to trade at 68.66 at the close. Meanwhile, McDonald’s Corporation added 1.57% or 2.48 points to end at 160.62 and Dow DuPont Inc. was up 1.46% or 0.97 points to 67.56 in late trade. The worst performers of the session were Intel Corporation, which fell 0.68% or 0.33 points to trade at 48.12 at the close. Johnson & Johnson declined 0.57% or 0.74 points to end at 129.48 and Home Depot Inc. was down 0.54% or 1.05 points to 193.09.

 

 

 

NASDAQ 100

The tech heavy NASDAQ index added 0.65% yesterday. The top performers on the NASDAQ Composite were Wins Finance Holdings Inc. which rose 50.82% to 92.00, Truett-Hurst Inc. which was up 40.00% to settle at 1.960 and Regulus Therapeutics Inc. which gained 33.42% to close at 0.265. The worst performers were OptiNose which was down 28.97% to 13.85 in late trade, NF Energy Saving Corporation which lost 25.47% to settle at 3.9500 and Ability Inc. which was down 24.04% to 4.55 at the close.

Oil

Crude erased earlier rally as the strengthening greenback diminished the appeal of dollar-denominated commodities amid expectations of swelling supplies at a key U.S storage complex. Futures slid 0.2 percent in New York yesterday as the Dollar advanced for a fourth session. An industry-funded tally of American crude inventories is expected to show that stockpiles towed at the Cushing, Oklahoma, pipeline nexus expanded for the first time in three months. The U.S benchmark crude has averaged just below $68 a barrel this month as trade tensions between the U.S and China imperiled global energy demand. At the same time, American sanctions threaten to disrupt Iranian oil exports, potentially creating a shortfall other nations may be ill-equipped to fill. West Texas Intermediate crude for September delivery slipped 16 cents to settle at $67.04 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

 

Precious and Base Metals

Gold rose from near 18-month lows yesterday, with futures breaking back above the key $1,200 level as the dollar softened and some analysts said the precious metal may have fallen too far. The dollar, in which gold is priced, was a touch lower against a basket of its peers as the Turkish lira regained its footing, easing concerns of knock-on disruption to global markets. Still, safe-haven buying due to the financial turmoil in Turkey helped bring gold off its lows. Spot gold gained 0.04 percent at $1,193.71 per ounce. In the previous session, it hit $1,191.35, its lowest since Jan. 30, 2017. U.S. December gold futures settled up $1.80, or 0.2 percent, at $1,200.70 per ounce. A lot of investors got very disappointed because they thought that gold would be the safe haven in trade conflict and also with Turkey and emerging markets and it wasn’t. Gold, which is down about 8 percent this year, has faced a slate of headwinds in 2018, including rising U.S. interest rates, a soaring dollar and failure to capitalize on its traditional role as a hedge against risk amid global uncertainty. Instead, investors have opted for U.S. Treasuries, seen as the ultimate safe haven, which meant they had to buy dollars. A washout down to $1,150 is in the cards before you get any type of support. There is no reason to be bullish about gold. Some investors see the high level of shorts and low positioning in ETFs as an indication that gold is due for a turnaround as it is oversold. Gold is a proven inflation hedge and a safe-haven asset in the case of shocks to economic growth, and we believe that current weakness presents an opportunity to benefit from the recovery of this undervalued sector. The next support for gold is at $1,180, a January 2017 low. Spot platinum rose 0.3 percent at $800.50 per ounce, after dropping 3.6 percent to a three-week low at $791.50 on Monday. Silver rose from an over 13-month low of $14.94 in the previous session, increasing 0.7 percent to $15.05.

 

 

Traditional Agricultures

Wheat futures rose more than 1 percent yesterday, rebounding from a near three-week low, as the U.S Department of Agriculture pegged the condition of the crop below market expectations, escalating concerns about global production.

 

Futures Settlement Price Tuesday, August 14, 2018
Instrument Contract Open High Low Settlement Net Change
DJIA DJM18 25220 25331 25190 25299 82
S & P 500 SPM18 2826.5 2843.5 2825.75 2841.5 15.5
NASDAQ 100 NDM18 7420 7464.25 7396.75 7459 42
Hang Seng HSH18 27896 27896 27440 27641 -232
Nikkei 225 NKH18 22060 22335 22010 22330 410
FTSE 100 FTH18 7612 7633.5 7590 7623.5 -20.5
Gold GCJ18 1200.8 1205.6 1198.7 1201.4 0.7
Silver SIK18 1499 1509 1496.5 1507 6.5
Copper HGK18 273.2 273.95 267.65 268.9 -5.05
Crude Oil CLK18 67.39 68.33 66.55 66.71 -0.76
Wheat WK18 535 544 532 542.25 7.25
Soybeans SK18 856 869 852 869 10.5
Corn CK18 356.5 362.75 356.25 362.75 5.5

 

 

Daily Swings  (The Pivot Levels)
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
DJM18 25075 25132 25216 25273 25357 25414 25498
SPM18 2812.58 2819.17 2830.33 2836.92 2848.08 2854.67 2865.83
NDM18 7348.25 7372.50 7415.75 7440.00 7483.25 7507.50 7550.75
HSH18 26966 27203 27422 27659 27878 28115 28334
NKH18 21790 21900 22115 22225 22440 22550 22765
FTH18 7554.33 7572.17 7597.83 7615.67 7641.33 7659.17 7684.83
GCJ18 1191.30 1195.00 1198.20 1201.90 1205.10 1208.80 1212.00
SIK18 1486.83 1491.67 1499.33 1504.17 1511.83 1516.67 1524.33
HGK18 260.08 263.87 266.38 270.17 272.68 276.47 278.98
CLK18 64.28 65.42 66.06 67.20 67.84 68.98 69.62
WK18 522.83 527.42 534.83 539.42 546.83 551.42 558.83
SK18 840.67 846.33 857.67 863.33 874.67 880.33 891.67
CK18 351.92 354.08 358.42 360.58 364.92 367.08 371.42

 

 Source: – News & Quotes (Courtesy:  Reuters)                                                                    

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

13 Ago 2018

Daily  Market View

   

Daily  Market View

Monday, August 13, 2018
          U.S Stock Market

 

DJIA S & P 500 NASDAQ
25332 2837.25 7427.25
-0.77% -0.71% -0.67%

U.S stocks fell on Friday as a deepening crisis in Turkey dragged on bank stocks and triggered fears that it could spread to other global economies. At the heart of the crisis was a slump in the Turkish lira, which worsened after President Donald Trump doubled tariffs on steel and aluminum imported from the country. The currency crisis is actually a banking crisis as Turkey owes so much money to so many different banks, that they risk a potential contagion. As long as Trump is going to be willy-nilly with tariffs, there’s going to be a lot of uncertainty and markets thrive on certainty. Citigroup, the most global of the major U.S. banks, fell 2.3 percent. JPMorgan, Wells Fargo and Bank of America were all down about 1 percent. Investors fled to safe-haven assets, pushing the dollar to a 13-month high and weighing on U.S. bond yields that slipped to a three-week low. Shares of trade-sensitive companies declined, with Boeing, 3M, and Caterpillar down between 2.3 percent and 4 percent.

 

Major Economic Releases for Today
Period Event GMT Forecast Previous

aug

Switzerland Total Sight Deposits 08:00    

aug

Switzerland Domestic Sight Deposits 08:00    

 

U.S to Sell 3-Month Bills 15:30    

 

U.S to Sell 6-Month Bills 15:30    

aug

ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Index 23:30    
Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.77% on Friday. The best performers of the session on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were Walmart Inc., which rose 1.31% or 1.17 points to trade at 90.18 at the close. Meanwhile, Chevron Corp added 0.66% or 0.81 points to end at 123.34 and Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. was up 0.48% or 0.32 points to 66.49 in late trade. The worst performers of the session were Intel Corporation, which fell 2.57% or 1.29 points to trade at 48.85 at the close. Caterpillar Inc. declined 1.88% or 2.60 points to end at 135.92 and Dow DuPont Inc. was down 1.85% or 1.28 points to 67.74.

 

 

 

NASDAQ 100

The tech heavy NASDAQ index fell 0.67% in Friday’s trading session. The top performers of the sesseion on the NASDAQ Composite were Chiasma Inc. which rose 40.00% to 1.75, Trade Desk Inc. which was up 37.13% to settle at 127.93 and Sonoma Pharmaceuticals Inc. which gained 32.18% to close at 2.300. The worst performers were Aralez Pharmaceuticals Inc. which was down 83.14% to 0.06 in late trade, Gemphire Therapeutics Inc. which lost 44.95% to settle at 1.80 and Endologix Inc. which was down 36.92% to 2.99 at the close.

Oil

Crude-oil prices finished sharply higher in Friday’s trading session, but the benchmark notched an overall decline for the week as a forecast for rising global crude demand, and supply boosts from Russia, offset lingering concerns about trade tensions cutting global consumption of energy products. Crude oil prices just posted their longest losing streak in three years, registering six straight weeks of declines, and one veteran oil watcher says there could be much more volatility ahead. Crude oil traders will stay focused on a plethora of bearish factors currently weighing on the market in the week ahead, after U.S. crude prices suffered their sixth straight weekly loss last week – their worst losing streak since August 2015. Brent meanwhile suffered its fifth week of declines in six, as investors worried that global trade disputes, most notably between the U.S and China, could slow economic growth and hurt demand for energy.

 

 

Precious and Base Metals

Gold prices were on track for their fifth consecutive weekly fall on Friday as the dollar surged to its strongest in more than a year, making bullion more expensive for buyers with other currencies. Investors rushed to the safety of the greenback as the Turkish lira collapsed as much as 14 percent on Friday to a record low, Russia’s Rouble crumbled to a two-year low and the euro and pound touched their weakest levels in a year. With the turmoil in Turkey spreading to other markets, gold – traditionally used as a safe investment in times of uncertainty – also saw some extra interest, but this was overpowered by the effect of the strong dollar. There is a battle going on between the strengthening dollar and some safe-haven demand emerging from the contagion risk following the collapse of the lira. Spot gold was down 0.2 percent at $1,210.15 an ounce, with the dollar 0.6 percent stronger against a basket of major currencies. U.S. gold futures were 0.2 percent lower at $1,218 an ounce. Gold has tumbled more than 11 percent from an April high to a one-year low of $1,204 last week as the dollar rallied to 13-month highs and investors exited gold positions and began to speculate on lower prices. Holdings of gold at exchange-traded funds (ETFs) tracked by Reuters have fallen by 3.7 million ounces, or 6.3 percent, since late May to the lowest in almost a year. Speculators have meanwhile expanded their net short position on the Comex exchange to the biggest ever recorded, helping to drive prices lower. Adding to the pressure on gold are expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will raise interest rates next month, bolstering the dollar and U.S bond yields and damaging the appeal of non-yielding gold. If gold rises, investors could be forced to liquidate short positions, which would lift prices. But this is unlikely to happen until gold reaches around $1,230. Silver was down 0.3 percent at $15.36 an ounce. Silver and palladium were on track for small weekly losses, while platinum was up slightly on the week.

 

Traditional Agricultures

Soybean futures dropped more than 4 percent on Friday after the USDA projected larger-than-expected crop yields in the United States and said U.S and global stocks of the oilseed would swell to record highs.

 

 

Futures Settlement Price Friday, August 10, 2018
Instrument Contract Open High Low Settlement Net Change
DJIA DJM18 25474 25487 25212 25332 -165
S & P 500 SPM18 2852.25 2852.75 2826 2837.25 -16.75
NASDAQ 100 NDM18 7471 7472.25 7390.25 7427.25 -48.75
Hang Seng HSH18 28483 28575 28169 28210 -329
Nikkei 225 NKH18 22545 22605 22240 22295 -310
FTSE 100 FTH18 7695.5 7697 7632.5 7644 -85
Gold GCJ18 1220 1224.6 1212.9 1218.8 -1.5
Silver SIK18 1544.5 1545 1528 1528.5 -18.5
Copper HGK18 276.35 277.45 273.1 274.2 -2.75
Crude Oil CLK18 66.7 67.83 66.11 67.59 0.82
Wheat WK18 563.5 573.75 545.5 546.25 -18.5
Soybeans SK18 890.25 891 849.75 850.25 -43
Corn CK18 367.5 369.5 356.5 357.5 -12

 

 

Daily Swings  (The Pivot Levels)
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
DJM18 24925 25069 25200 25344 25475 25619 25750
SPM18 2797.83 2811.92 2824.58 2838.67 2851.33 2865.42 2878.08
NDM18 7305.58 7347.92 7387.58 7429.92 7469.58 7511.92 7551.58
HSH18 27655 27912 28061 28318 28467 28724 28873
NKH18 21790 22015 22155 22380 22520 22745 22885
FTH18 7554.17 7593.33 7618.67 7657.83 7683.17 7722.33 7747.67
GCJ18 1201.23 1207.07 1212.93 1218.77 1224.63 1230.47 1236.33
SIK18 1505.67 1516.83 1522.67 1533.83 1539.67 1550.83 1556.67
HGK18 268.03 270.57 272.38 274.92 276.73 279.27 281.08
CLK18 64.80 65.46 66.52 67.18 68.24 68.90 69.96
WK18 508.33 526.92 536.58 555.17 564.83 583.42 593.08
SK18 795.08 822.42 836.33 863.67 877.58 904.92 918.83
CK18 339.83 348.17 352.83 361.17 365.83 374.17 378.83

 

 Source: – News & Quotes (Courtesy:  Reuters)                                                                    

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

 

 

 

 

13 Ago 2018

FOREX Newsletter

     

 FOREX Newsletter

 August 13, 2018
 

 

Pulse of the Market

·      Retail sales is the only piece of market moving data on the U.S calendar this week

·      Sterling weakness has been one of the most consistent trends in the FOREX market this month

·      The single currency has been trending lower since the beginning of the second quarter

·      Wild swings in oil and key economic reports failed to have an impact on the Canadian Dollar

The U.S Dollar gained because investors are flocking into the safety of the Greenback. While the stronger Dollar is a growing problem for countries around the world, so far it hasn’t taken a significant toll on the U.S economy. A strong currency is supposed to hurt exports, drive inflation lower, cause businesses to curtail hiring but so far we haven’t seen any evidence of that. Inflation growth is still strong with year over year core CPI growth rising to its highest level since 2008 last month. Job growth is healthy, wages are on the rise and consumer confidence is steady. The only place we’ve seen an impact is corporate earnings. A retail sale, which is the only piece of market moving data on the U.S. calendar this week, should be slightly weaker but strong enough to allow the Fed to raise interest rates. For the first time in over a year EUR/USD is trading below 1.15. The single currency has been trending lower since the beginning of the second quarter and has come close to testing this support level on numerous occasions. The meltdown in Turkey was the straw that broke the camel’s back, opening the door to the deeper slide towards 1.12. There wasn’t much Eurozone data released over the past week but the few reports we had were far from impressive as factory orders and industrial production in Germany tumbled. The calendar heats up in the week ahead with Q2 GDP, CPI and ZEW scheduled for release. However all that will take a backseat to Turkey’s troubles. According to data from the Bank of International Settlements, Spanish lenders are the most exposed followed by Italian and French banks. Over the last year the Lira has lost 33% of its value and its cost of servicing its debt has risen to the highest level in 9 years. If Turkey’s economy crumbles more migrants could be headed to the EU, making Turkey a political and economic crisis for the region. From a fundamental and technical perspective, the euro is vulnerable to additional losses. Sterling weakness has been one of the most consistent trends in the forex market this month. GBP/USD fell every day this past week despite stronger trade, industrial production and Q2 GDP data. Investors are growing more concerned about the risk of a no-deal Brexit, worried about UK bank exposure to Turkish debt and more certain that the turmoil in the financial markets will keep monetary policy unchanged for the rest of the year. The UK government has 7 months to strike a deal with the European Union or risk damaging morale and delaying business investments by extending negotiations. With a number of important economic reports on the calendar, sterling will remain in focus in the week ahead. The latest employment, inflation, and consumer spending numbers are scheduled for release and given the extent of GBP/USD’s decline this month, if any of them surprise to the upside, we could see a furious short squeeze. All 3 of the commodity currencies traded lower on Friday.

 

 

Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
08:00 Switzerland Total Sight Deposits CHF (AUG 10) Low      
08:00 Switzerland Domestic Sight Deposits CHF (AUG 10) Low      
15:30 U.S. to Sell 3-Month Bills Low      
15:30 U.S. to Sell 6-Month Bills Low      
23:30 ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Index (AUG 12) Low      

 

Euro

 

The single currency plunged against the U.S Dollar. The single currency broke sharply following reports that the ECB is concerned over the impact of a weak Turkish Lira on European banks. According to the Financial Times, the Lira’s depreciation could hurt European banks such as Spain’s BBVA, Italy’s UniCredit, and France’s BNP Paribas in particular. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1386 and a high of 1.1535 before closing the day around 1.1412 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen pair was under pressure last week on trade tensions and on revelations the Bank of Japan is under pressure to move away from its accommodative policy. Early in the week, the Yen was supported by solid domestic data. Late in the week, geopolitical tensions sparked a flight-to-safety rally into the Japanese Yen. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 110.49 and a high of 111.15 before closing the day around 110.77 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound continues to get punished for all things Brexit and of course an inability of Conservative Party members in the U.K to get it together and present a united front. People are starting to price in the idea of a “no deal Brexit”, so things are becoming much more negative. At this point, the trade of the century might be buying the Pound at low levels. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.2721 and a high of 1.2835 before closing the day at 1.2768 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar weakened to a more than two-week low against the greenback on Friday as the threat of an economic crisis in Turkey spreading to other countries rattled global financial markets, offsetting stronger-than-expected domestic jobs data. Canadian government bond prices were higher across a flatter yield curve in sympathy with U.S Treasuries. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.3038 and a high of 1.3151 before closing the day at 1.3129 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar broke sharply last week amid expectations that domestic interest rates would remain at historical lows longer-than-expected and rising geopolitical turmoil that dampened demand for higher-yielding currencies. The Australian Dollar weakened as the central bank showed no intention of raising rates over the near future. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7278 and a high of 0.7378 before closing the day at 0.7296 in the New York session.

 

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is also issuing a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 29 and lies below the neutral zone. In general, the pair has lost 1.27%.

  

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish tone and MACD is also indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 23 reading and lies below the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.72%.

 

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is also indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 35 reading and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 1.33%.

  

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bearish tone and MACD is issuing a bullish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 55 and lies above the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.60%.

 

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish stance and MACD is indicating a bullish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 22 and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.28%.

 

 

Appendix

  

FOREX Closing Prices for August 10, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.15268 1.15351 1.13867 1.14125 -0.0116
USD/JPY 111.072 111.151 110.498 110.777 -0.3180
GBP/USD 1.28254 1.28351 1.27212 1.27684 -0.0058
USD/CHF 0.99338 0.99733 0.99267 0.99514 0.0014
USD/CAD 1.30477 1.3151 1.30389 1.31291 0.0077
EUR/JPY 128.049 128.089 125.987 126.444 -1.6220
GBP/JPY 142.468 142.556 140.914 141.459 -1.0240
CHF/JPY 111.782 111.833 111.052 111.284 -0.5380
AUD/JPY 81.892 81.966 80.584 80.831 -1.0860
EUR/GBP 0.89854 0.89902 0.89241 0.8936 -0.0054
EUR/CHF 1.14546 1.14589 1.13374 1.1358 -0.0098
GBP/CHF 1.274 1.27697 1.26469 1.27076 -0.0036

 

 

 

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1206 1.1296 1.1354 1.1445 1.1503 1.1593 1.1651
USD/JPY 109.81 110.16 110.47 110.81 111.12 111.46 111.77
GBP/USD 1.2601 1.2661 1.2715 1.2775 1.2829 1.2889 1.2943
USD/CHF 0.9881 0.9904 0.9928 0.9950 0.9974 0.9997 1.0021
USD/CAD 1.2950 1.2994 1.3062 1.3106 1.3174 1.3218 1.3286
EUR/JPY 123.49 124.74 125.59 126.84 127.69 128.94 129.80
GBP/JPY 139.09 140.00 140.73 141.64 142.37 143.29 144.01
CHF/JPY 110.17 110.61 110.95 111.39 111.73 112.17 112.51
AUD/JPY 78.91 79.75 80.29 81.13 81.67 82.51 83.05
EUR/GBP 0.8844 0.8884 0.8910 0.8950 0.8976 0.9016 0.9042
EUR/CHF 1.1189 1.1263 1.1311 1.1385 1.1432 1.1506 1.1554
GBP/CHF 1.2524 1.2585 1.2646 1.2708 1.2769 1.2831 1.2892

 

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

 

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

10 Ago 2018

FOREX Newsletter

 

FOREX Newsletter

August 10, 2018
 

 

  Pulse of the Market

·      Excluding food and energy, U.S producer price index rose 0.1% data showed yesterday

·      Sterling has been the weakest currency this quarter and now there’s scope for a move to 1.2775

·      The New Zealand Dollar fell to its lowest level in 2.5 years against the greenback

·      USD/CAD is clearly waiting for a catalyst to break out which could be Canadian employment report

The U.S Dollar traded higher against all of the major currencies yesterday despite softer than expected inflation data. Economists were looking for price pressures to grow at a slower pace in July but instead PPI stagnated due to lower food and energy costs. Excluding food and energy, producer prices rose 0.1%. This is anemic but it is in no surprise because the U.S Dollar hit multi-month highs last month and its strength pushed inflation lower. Oil prices also fell in July, leading to a drop in energy costs. Jobless claims were better than expected but the improvement was overshadowed by PPI. Nonetheless, the sell-off in USD/JPY was nominal. The initial move was only 10 pips with the pair dropping another 10-20 pips during the NY session before stabilizing. The rally in the greenback against other major currencies like the euro and sterling also took a while to occur. The consumer price report is due for release today and it should have a much more significant impact on the greenback. Unfortunately, given the weakness of PPI, CPI growth could miss especially with gas prices declining in July. If inflation on the consumer level falls short of expectations, USD/JPY could break 110.70 and hit a fresh 1 month low. EUR/USD tested and rejected 1.16 today. The move was driven primarily by U.S Dollar strength but the ECB’s concerns about intensifying global risks did not help the currency. Aside from the U.S Dollar, sterling and the loonie will also be in play today. Starting with the pound it has now been 8 days since we’ve seen a rally in GBP/USD. Sterling has been the weakest currency this quarter. However given how much GBP has fallen, there could be a furious short squeeze on any hint of good news. So far the market is not buying the talk of more amenable Brexit terms from the EU but if today’s second quarter GDP numbers beat expectations, it could be the perfect catalyst for a relief rally.

 

 

Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
  China New Yuan Loans CNY (JUL) High   1200.0b 1840.0b
01:30 RBA Quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy Medium      
08:30 U.K Visible Trade Balance (Pounds) (JUN) Medium   -£11900 -£12362
08:30 U.K Industrial Production (YoY) (JUN) Medium   0.7% 0.8%
08:30 U.K Manufacturing Production (YoY) (JUN) Medium   1.0% 1.1%
08:30 U.K Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (2Q) High   1.3% 1.2%
12:30 Canada Hourly Earnings Permanent Employees (YoY) (JUL) Medium   3.6% 3.5%
12:30 Canada Full Time Employment Change (JUL) Medium     9.1
12:30 Canada Net Change in Employment (JUL) High   17.0k 31.8k
12:30 Canada Unemployment Rate (JUL) High   5.9% 6.0%
12:30 U.S Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JUL) High   2.9% 2.9%
12:30 U.S Consumer Price Index Ex Food and Energy (YoY) (JUL) High   2.3% 2.3%
12:30 U.S Real Avg Hourly Earnings (YoY) (JUL) Medium     0.0%
17:00 Baker Hughes U.S Rig Count (AUG 10) Medium      
18:00 U.S Monthly Budget Statement (JUL) Medium     -$74.9b

 

Euro

The single currency traded lower against the U.S Dollar yesterday as investors increase their bets supporting the notion that the U.S will win the trade war versus China and that the strong economy will continue to make the dollar a more attractive investment. A trade through 1.1530 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1524 and a high of 1.1618 before closing the day around 1.1528 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen edged up to its strongest level against the dollar in nine days yesterday’s in Asian session ahead of trade talks between the United States and Japan and speculation over when the Japanese central bank will exit its ultra-easy monetary policy. The yen has fallen about 4 percent against the dollar over the past six months. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 110.68 and a high of 111.16 before closing the day around 111.09 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound steadied near 11-month lows yesterday after a decline this week that was fueled by investor fears Britain will leave the European Union without an agreement on its future relationship with the bloc. The recent slide began after the UK trade minister, Liam Fox, warned over the weekend that he saw a 60 percent chance of a no-deal Brexit. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.2817 and a high of 1.2909 before closing the day at 1.2826 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar fell yesterday awaiting employment data to be released today. The diplomatic row between Canada and Saudi Arabia continues as both nations are standing their ground. Oil prices have halted their skid as concerns on Iranian supplies following the reactivation of the US sanctions and a curb in demand if China and the US trade dispute is not resolved. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.2998 and a high of 1.3061 before closing the day at 1.3052 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar has traded steadily against the US Dollar (USD) today, with neither currency dominating. Demand for both currencies has fallen today following the news that China is seeking to impose fresh tariffs against the US in the ongoing trading conflict. The Australian Dollar has a chance to rally before the weekend Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7379 and a high of 0.7451 before closing the day at 0.7382 in the New York session.

 

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is also issuing a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 37 and lies below the neutral zone. In general, the pair has lost 0.61%.

 

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish tone and MACD is also indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 27 reading and lies below the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.35%.

  

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is also indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 44 reading and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.69%.

  

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bearish tone and MACD is issuing a bullish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 64 and lies above the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.26%.

  

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish stance and MACD is indicating a bullish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 24 and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.42%.

 

Appendix

  

FOREX Closing Prices for August 09, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.16092 1.16181 1.15245 1.15286 -0.0083
USD/JPY 110.947 111.165 110.689 111.095 0.1020
GBP/USD 1.288 1.29099 1.28173 1.28261 -0.0057
USD/CHF 0.99319 0.99492 0.98928 0.99371 0.0003
USD/CAD 1.30156 1.30619 1.2998 1.3052 0.0028
EUR/JPY 128.807 128.986 128.019 128.066 -0.7870
GBP/JPY 142.899 143.467 142.325 142.483 -0.5020
CHF/JPY 111.671 112.067 111.433 111.822 0.0780
AUD/JPY 82.3 82.614 81.867 81.917 -0.5700
EUR/GBP 0.90106 0.90287 0.89789 0.89895 -0.0024
EUR/CHF 1.15306 1.15346 1.14483 1.14558 -0.0077
GBP/CHF 1.27933 1.28153 1.27301 1.27438 -0.0054

 

  

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1402 1.1463 1.1496 1.1557 1.1590 1.1651 1.1683
USD/JPY 110.33 110.51 110.80 110.98 111.28 111.46 111.75
GBP/USD 1.2700 1.2759 1.2792 1.2851 1.2885 1.2944 1.2978
USD/CHF 0.9847 0.9870 0.9904 0.9926 0.9960 0.9983 1.0016
USD/CAD 1.2949 1.2973 1.3013 1.3037 1.3077 1.3101 1.3141
EUR/JPY 126.76 127.39 127.73 128.36 128.70 129.32 129.66
GBP/JPY 140.91 141.62 142.05 142.76 143.19 143.90 144.33
CHF/JPY 110.85 111.14 111.48 111.77 112.12 112.41 112.75
AUD/JPY 80.90 81.39 81.65 82.13 82.40 82.88 83.15
EUR/GBP 0.8920 0.8949 0.8969 0.8999 0.9019 0.9049 0.9069
EUR/CHF 1.1338 1.1393 1.1425 1.1480 1.1511 1.1566 1.1597
GBP/CHF 1.2626 1.2678 1.2711 1.2763 1.2796 1.2848 1.2881

 

 

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

 

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

10 Ago 2018

Daily Market View

   

Daily Market View

Friday, August 10, 2018
          U.S Stock Market

 

DJIA S & P 500 NASDAQ
25490 2853.50 7475.00
-0.29% +0.14% +0.04%

U.S stocks closed mostly lower yesterday as weak energy and industrial shares weighed on the market, but the NASDAQ bucked the trend to rise for an eighth straight session, logging its best winning streak since October. Closing numbers for key benchmarks, however, do not tell the full story, with the S&P 500 having spent most of the day in positive territory and then retreating toward the closing bell along with the NASDAQ, trimming its gains as the tech sector turned weak. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 74.52 points, 0.3%, while the S&P 500 shed 4.12 points, or 0.1%. The NASDAQ Index edged up 3.46 points. For the week, the Dow is set to gain 0.2%, the S&P 500 is on pace to advance 0.5% and the NASDAQ is on track for a weekly return of 1%. Trading in recent sessions has mostly been a tug of war between concerns about the continuing trade dispute between the U.S and China and positive sentiment over strong corporate earnings against a healthy economic backdrop.

 

 

Major Economic Releases for Today
Period Event GMT Forecast Previous

 

RBA Quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy 01:30    

jun

U.K Trade Balance 08:30 -£2500 -£2790

jun

U.K Industrial Production (YoY) 08:30 0.7% 0.8%

2Q

U.K Gross Domestic Product (YoY) 08:30 1.3% 1.2%

jul

Canada Net Change in Employment 12:30 17.0k 31.8k

jul

Canada Unemployment Rate 12:30 5.9% 6.0%

jul

U.S Consumer Price Index (YoY) 12:30 2.9% 2.9%

jul

U.S Real Avg Hourly Earnings (YoY) 12:30   0.0%

jul

U.S Monthly Budget Statement 18:00   -$74.9b
Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.29% yesterday. The best performers of the session on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were Dow DuPont Inc., which rose 2.01% or 1.36 points to trade at 69.02 at the close. Meanwhile, UnitedHealth Group Incorporated added 1.07% or 2.78 points to end at 261.59 and Nike Inc. was up 0.94% or 0.76 points to 81.26 in late trade. The worst performers of the session were Procter & Gamble Company, which fell 1.15% or 0.95 points to trade at 81.40 at the close. 3M Company declined 1.14% or 2.36 points to end at 204.78 and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. was down 1.10% or 2.59 points to 233.78.

 

 

 

NASDAQ 100

The tech heavy NASDAQ index climbed 0.04% yesterday. The top performers on the NASDAQ Composite were Carver Bancorp Inc. which rose 84.22% to 7.240, TMSR Holding Company Ltd which was up 55.69% to settle at 6.50 and Citius Pharmaceuticals Inc. which gained 48.25% to close at 1.690. The worst performers were Maiden Holdings Ltd which was down 41.33% to 4.40 in late trade, iPass Inc. which lost 29.31% to settle at 0.2750 and Ultra Petroleum Corp which was down 25.44% to 1.260 at the close.

 

 

Oil

Crude prices settled slightly lower yesterday, extending the previous session’s losses as the escalating China-U.S. trade dispute casts doubt over the outlook for oil demand. Brent crude futures fell 21 cents to settle at $72.07 a barrel. U.S crude fell 13 cents to $66.81 a barrel. Both benchmarks tumbled more than 3 percent on Wednesday after U.S. data showed a smaller-than-expected weekly draw in crude inventories and a surprise build of 2.9 million barrels in gasoline supplies. Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast a 1.7 million-barrel draw in gasoline stocks. The trade war is rattling global markets. Investors fear any slowdown in the world’s two largest economies would slash demand for commodities. Oil traders were also worried about Chinese demand. Crude imports picked up in July after two months of decline, but were still among the lowest this year.

 

 

Precious and Base Metals

Gold prices were mostly steady in range-bound Asian trade yesterday, after gaining for two straight sessions, with a strong dollar weighing on upside momentum. Spot gold was up 0.1 percent at $1,214.23 an ounce, having gained 0.2 percent in the previous session.  U.S. gold futures were up 0.1 percent at $1,222.2 an ounce. The U.S. dollar yesterday stabilized versus the yen after earlier in the session dropping to a two-week low ahead of trade talks between the United States and Japan and amid speculation over when the Bank of Japan will exit its ultra-easy monetary policy. The greenback was steady versus the Yuan and up 0.1 percent against other major rivals. There’s no major event that’s driving gold prices…It’s going to be trading in a very tight range. It seems that people are still thinking the rate hike is going to come, so gold is not really a good investment for now. If there are expectations of faster rate hikes or higher inflation, then gold prices will see further downside pressure. The U.S. Federal Reserve has raised benchmark interest rates two times so far this year and targets two more hikes in the near-term with the next one slated to come in September. Higher U.S. rates tend to boost the dollar and treasury yields, adding pressure on greenback-denominated, non-yielding gold. The U.S. economy is strong enough to warrant further interest rate increases by the central bank, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said on Wednesday. China late on Wednesday said would it slap additional tariffs of 25 percent on $16 billion worth of U.S. imports, in retaliation to news the United States plans to begin collecting 25 percent extra in tariffs on $16 billion of Chinese goods from Aug. 23. Gold prices can benefit from uncertainty, as the metal is traditionally seen as a safe place to park assets, alongside the yen. Holdings in SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, fell 0.18 percent to 786.08 tonnes on Wednesday, hitting the lowest since August 2017. In other precious metals, silver rose 0.2 percent to $15.41 an ounce.

 

 

Traditional Agricultures

Corn fell in yesterday’s trading session as better than expected ratings of U.S crops from the U.S Department of Agriculture (USDA) weighed on prices.

 

 

 

 

Futures Settlement Price Thursday, August 09, 2018
Instrument Contract Open High Low Settlement Net Change
DJIA DJM18 25507 25600 25474 25497 -38
S & P 500 SPM18 2853.5 2862.75 2852 2854 -1.5
NASDAQ 100 NDM18 7462.25 7505 7458.5 7476 4.75
Hang Seng HSH18 28140 28654 28080 28539 298
Nikkei 225 NKH18 22555 22620 22475 22605 -35
FTSE 100 FTH18 7735 7735.5 7690.5 7729 17
Gold GCJ18 1221.3 1225.3 1218.2 1220.3 -1.7
Silver SIK18 1542 1551 1536.5 1547 1.5
Copper HGK18 275.55 281.8 275.05 276.95 0.95
Crude Oil CLK18 66.76 67.38 66.46 66.77 -0.08
Wheat WK18 569.25 573.25 561.5 564.75 -5.75
Soybeans SK18 897.5 903 891 893.25 -7
Corn CK18 370.25 372.25 366.25 369.5 -2.25

 

 

Daily Swings  (The Pivot Levels)
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
DJM18 25321 25398 25447 25524 25573 25650 25699
SPM18 2839.00 2845.50 2849.75 2856.25 2860.50 2867.00 2871.25
NDM18 7408.17 7433.33 7454.67 7479.83 7501.17 7526.33 7547.67
HSH18 27621 27850 28195 28424 28769 28998 29343
NKH18 22368 22422 22513 22567 22658 22712 22803
FTH18 7656.17 7673.33 7701.17 7718.33 7746.17 7763.33 7791.17
GCJ18 1210.13 1214.17 1217.23 1221.27 1224.33 1228.37 1231.43
SIK18 1524.17 1530.33 1538.67 1544.83 1553.17 1559.33 1567.67
HGK18 267.32 271.18 274.07 277.93 280.82 284.68 287.57
CLK18 65.44 65.95 66.36 66.87 67.28 67.79 68.20
WK18 548.00 554.75 559.75 566.50 571.50 578.25 583.25
SK18 876.50 883.75 888.50 895.75 900.50 907.75 912.50
CK18 360.42 363.33 366.42 369.33 372.42 375.33 378.42

 

 

 Source: – News & Quotes (Courtesy:  Reuters)                                                                    

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

 

 

 

 

09 Ago 2018

Daily Market View

       

 Daily Market View

 Thursday, August 09, 2018
          U.S Stock Market

 

DJIA S & P 500 NASDAQ
25535 2855.50 7471.25
-0.03% +0.11% +0.18%

Stocks were little changed yesterday as China unveiled new tariffs on U.S. goods, while a in Disney shares also kept the broader market’s gains in check. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 31 points, with Disney as the biggest laggard. The S&P 500 rose 0.1 percent as financials underperformed. The NASDAQ traded marginally lower. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced a 25 percent charge on $16 billion worth of U.S goods. The goods being targeted by China include vehicles such as large passenger cars and motorcycles. Various fuels are on the list, as well as fiber optical cables. China’s announcement comes after the U.S Trade Representative’s office released a finalized list of $16 billion worth in Chinese goods that will be hit with tariffs. The U.S charges will take effect on Aug. 23. The latest U.S. list brings the total worth of Chinese goods facing a 25 percent tariff to $50 billion. Shares of big exporters Caterpillar and Boeing fell 1.7 percent and 0.8 percent, respectively.

 

 

Major Economic Releases for Today
Period Event GMT Forecast Previous

jul

China Producer Price Index (YoY) 01:30 4.5% 4.7%

jul

China Consumer Price Index (YoY) 01:30 2.0% 1.9%

jul

Switzerland Unemployment Rate 05:45 2.4% 2.4%

jul

Japan Machine Tool Orders (YoY) 06:00   11.4%

jul

ECB Publishes Economic Bulletin 08:00    

jul

Canada Housing Starts 12:15 219.5k 248.1k

aug

U.S Initial Jobless Claims 12:30 220k  

jul

U.S Producer Price Index Final Demand (YoY) 12:30 3.4% 3.4%

2Q

Japan Gross Domestic Product Annualized s.a. (QoQ) 23:50 1.4% -0.6%
Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.18%. The best performers of the session on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were McDonald’s Corporation, which rose 1.85% or 2.88 points to trade at 158.92 at the close. Meanwhile, Pfizer Inc. added 1.40% or 0.57 points to end at 41.41 and American Express Company was up 0.79% or 0.81 points to 102.78 in late trade. The worst performers of the session were Walt Disney Company, which fell 2.21% or 2.58 points to trade at 113.98 at the close. Caterpillar Inc. declined 1.88% or 2.67 points to end at 139.71 and Chevron Corp was down 1.04% or 1.30 points to 123.88.

 

NASDAQ 100

The NASDAQ index gained 0.06%. The top performers on the NASDAQ Composite were Ability Inc. which rose 124.49% to 6.60, China Bak Battery Inc. which was up 40.98% to settle at 0.719 and Strongbridge Biopharma plc which gained 31.11% to close at 5.9000. The worst performers were ReShape Lifesciences Inc. which was down 79.89% to 0.0661 in late trade, Extreme Networks Inc. which lost 32.03% to settle at 6.090 and Egalet Corp which was down 29.84% to 0.41 at the close.

Oil

Oil prices fell sharply yesterday, hammered by an escalating trade dispute between the United States and China, weak Chinese import data and a smaller-than-anticipated drop in American crude stockpiles. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures ended Wednesday’s session at a seven-week low, dropping $2.23, or 3.2 percent, to $66.94. WTI has now failed to break through $70 a barrel several times this week and fell through a recent low near $67 yesterday. China yesterday threatened to slap a 25 percent tariff on $16 billion of U.S. goods. The move came in response to the Trump administration’s plan to slap the same tariff on an equal amount of Chinese imports in the coming weeks. The mounting trade tension has raised concerns that global economic growth will slow, lowering demand for crude oil in the process. Weekly data on U.S crude stockpiles showed inventories fell by 1.4 million barrels in the week through Aug. 3.

 

Precious and Base Metals

Gold prices edged higher as the Dollar gave up early gains yesterday, but the precious metal is expected to remain weak on rising U.S interest rates and strong demand for U.S. Treasury bonds as a safe haven from global trade tensions. The Dollar, which hit a three-week high on Monday, lost ground versus a basket of currencies after hitting a key level of resistance. The Treasuries came off a bit and sent the dollar near unchanged for the day. Spot gold gained 0.2 percent at $1,213.14 per ounce, near $1,204 hit last week, its lowest since March 2017. U.S. gold futures settled up $2.70, or 0.2 percent, at $1,221 per ounce. Prices are down more than 10 percent since April. A stronger greenback makes dollar-denominated gold more expensive for holders of other currencies, subduing demand. This relationship is used by funds to generate buy and sell signals from numerical models. The Fed is going to raise rates further this year, that will push up the dollar, a negative for gold. The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to tighten credit twice more this year and three times in 2019. The next policy meeting is in September. Higher interest rates raise the opportunity cost of holding gold, which earns nothing and costs money to store and insure. An escalation in global trade tensions would trigger further moves into U.S. Treasuries, commonly regarded as the ultimate safe haven, said Fertig, noting that dollars are needed to buy Treasuries. Holdings of SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, are at their lowest since August 2017. Silver rose 0.6 percent to $15.42 an ounce, platinum gained 0.7 percent at $831.70. Palladium declined 0.6 percent to $900.90 per ounce.

 

 

Traditional Agriculture

Soybeans extended gains yesterday as lower than expected crop ratings raised doubts about U.S. harvest yields while expectations China will resume large-scale imports of U.S soybeans tempered worries about trade tensions. Wheat resumed a recent rally as the prospect of weather damage in major exporting zones such as Europe and Australia kept supply concerns in focus. Corn was also firm as weather problems in the wheat market raised the prospect that livestock producers could turn more to corn in feed rations.

 

Futures Settlement Price Wednesday, August 08, 2018
Instrument Contract Open High Low Settlement Net Change
DJIA DJM18 25613 25630 25517 25535 -61
S & P 500 SPM18 2860.25 2862.25 2853 2855.5 -4
NASDAQ 100 NDM18 7477.5 7495.25 7442.25 7471.25 -5.75
Hang Seng HSH18 28284 28369 28138 28241 42
Nikkei 225 NKH18 22630 22780 22585 22640 5
FTSE 100 FTH18 7661 7730.5 7646.5 7712 54
Gold GCJ18 1218.7 1223.6 1213.5 1222 3.4
Silver SIK18 1537.5 1546 1527.5 1545.5 8
Copper HGK18 275.25 277.35 273.55 276 0.8
Crude Oil CLK18 69.05 69.34 66.29 66.85 -2.21
Wheat WK18 568 577.5 564.25 570.5 2
Soybeans SK18 892 902.5 887.5 900.25 5.5
Corn CK18 370 373.25 369.75 371.75 1.5

 

 

Daily Swings  (The Pivot Levels)
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
DJM18 25378 25448 25491 25561 25604 25674 25717
SPM18 2842.33 2847.67 2851.58 2856.92 2860.83 2866.17 2870.08
NDM18 7390.92 7416.58 7443.92 7469.58 7496.92 7522.58 7549.92
HSH18 27899 28018 28130 28249 28361 28480 28592
NKH18 22362 22473 22557 22668 22752 22863 22947
FTH18 7578.17 7612.33 7662.17 7696.33 7746.17 7780.33 7830.17
GCJ18 1205.70 1209.60 1215.80 1219.70 1225.90 1229.80 1236.00
SIK18 1514.83 1521.17 1533.33 1539.67 1551.83 1558.17 1570.33
HGK18 270.12 271.83 273.92 275.63 277.72 279.43 281.52
CLK18 62.60 64.44 65.65 67.49 68.70 70.54 71.75
WK18 550.75 557.50 564.00 570.75 577.25 584.00 590.50
SK18 876.00 881.75 891.00 896.75 906.00 911.75 921.00
CK18 366.42 368.08 369.92 371.58 373.42 375.08 376.92

  

 Source: – News & Quotes (Courtesy:  Reuters)                                                                    

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

 

09 Ago 2018

FOREX Newsletter

FOREX Newsletter

August 09, 2018

 

  Pulse of the Market

·      The Dollar edged lower against a currency basket of currencies yesterday, sliding for a second day

·      The Euro hovered around the $1.16 yesterday but failed to capitalize on a pause in the Dollar’s rally

·      The recent rally in the Dollar has faded as investor concerns over global trade tensions waned

·      The BOJ board members had disagreed on how far interest rates should be allowed to move

The U.S Dollar edged higher yesterday as investors worried about trade tensions and examined the Bank of Japan’s recent shift in interest-rate policy. The euro hovered around the $1.16 mark on Wednesday but failed to capitalize on a pause in the dollar’s rally, while solid data out of China calmed nerves about recent Sino-U.S trade tensions. The dollar has weakened since hitting a three-week high on Monday, when the prospect of a full-blown trade war increased demand for the currency. Traders said the dollar needed a fresh impetus or an escalation in the trade tensions to move higher. The Chinese trade data, coupled with the PBOC moves, is helping quieting markets, with range-bound trading. The People’s Bank of China announced last week that it would impose a reserve requirement on FX forwards and wanted to see a stable Yuan. China’s currency has since recovered some of its losses but was 0.2 weaker at 6.8380 in offshore markets, still off last week’s 6.9125 lows. Traders say market sensitivity to trade war headlines has diminished and investors will want to see evidence the dispute is having real impact before they panic. In a reminder the dispute has not disappeared, however, the U.S. Trade Representative’s office said on Tuesday that the U.S would begin collecting 25 percent tariffs on another $16 billion of Chinese goods later this month. The yen rose half a percent after reports that Bank of Japan board members had disagreed on how far interest rates should be allowed to move from the central bank’s target. The Yen rose to 110.84, a one-week high. The pound fell to the lowest levels of the year yesterday as the currency was pressured lower by growing fears over the prospect of Britain exiting the European Union without a trade deal in place. Sentiment on the pound has soured after Britain’s International Trade Secretary Liam Fox said in an interview published in the Sunday Times newspaper there was a 60:40 chance that the UK would leave the European Union without an agreement.

 

 

Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
01:30 China Producer Price Index (YoY) (JUL) Medium 4.5% 4.7%
01:30 China Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JUL) High 2.0% 1.9%
05:45 Switzerland Unemployment Rate (JUL) Medium 2.4% 2.4%
06:00 Japan Machine Tool Orders (YoY) (JUL) Medium 11.4%
08:00 ECB Publishes Economic Bulletin (JUL) Medium
12:15 Canada Housing Starts (JUL) Medium 219.5k 248.1k
12:30 Canada New Housing Price Index (YoY) (JUN) Medium 0.7% 0.9%
12:30 U.S Initial Jobless Claims (AUG 4) Medium 220k
12:30 U.S Continuing Claims (JUL 28) Medium 1735k
12:30 U.S Producer Price Index Final Demand (YoY) (JUL) Low 3.4% 3.4%
13:00 Mexico CPI (YoY) (JUL) High 4.81% 4.65%
14:00 U.S Wholesale Inventories (MoM) (JUN) Low 0.0% 0.0%
14:00 U.S Wholesale Trade Sales (MoM) (JUN) Low 2.5%
23:50 Japan Gross Domestic Product Annualized s.a. (QoQ) (2Q) High 1.4% -0.6%

 

Euro

The single currency was steady against the Dollar in yesterday’s trading session but the currency will be increasingly vulnerable to losses over coming weeks as the new Italian government thrashes out its 2019 budget plan ahead of a possible showdown with EU fiscal hawks in Brussels toward the end of the year. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1571 and a high of 1.1626 before closing the day around 1.1611 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen pair fell as we continue to see a lot of noise in this market. The ¥111 level underneath does offer quite a bit of demand though that could turn things around and have the buyers jumping back in. The market of course continues to react to the trade war fears and the like, so this could be a bit of “Ground Zero” for reaction to the headlines.  Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 110.81 and a high of 111.41 before closing the day around 110.99 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound fell to the lowest level in more than nine months against the euro in yesterday’s session amid growing concern that the U.K could end up leaving the European Union with no agreement for future economic ties. Investors have turned more bearish on the U.K. currency as the Brexit deadline approaches. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.2851 and a high of 1.2958 before closing the day at 1.2883 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar weakened to a two-week low earlier in the session but pared its losses as investors decided that the impact on the currency of potential Canadian asset sales will be short-lived. The Saudi central bank and state pension funds have instructed their overseas asset managers to dispose of their Canadian equities, bonds and cash holdings. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.3004 and a high of 1.3117 before closing the day at 1.3024 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar gained yesterday, thanks to a recent RBA event. RBA Governor Philip Lowe has given a speech which has raised AUD trader confidence; Mr. Lowe stressed that the next interest rate change would likely be a hike instead of a cut. While Mr. Lowe didn’t indicate when interest rates could be increased, this assertion and his broadly positive outlook have enabled Aussie gains. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7381 and a high of 0.7437 before closing the day at 0.7435 in the New York session.

 

 

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is also issuing a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 42 and lies below the neutral zone. In general, the pair has lost 0.4%.

 

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish tone and MACD is also indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 29 reading and lies below the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.77%.

  

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is also indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 50 reading and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.17%.

  

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bearish tone and MACD is issuing a bullish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 70 and lies above the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has gained 0.57%.

 

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish stance and MACD is indicating a bullish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 26 and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.63%.

 

Appendix

 

FOREX Closing Prices for August 08, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.15977 1.16268 1.15718 1.16115 0.0014
USD/JPY 111.359 111.419 110.818 110.993 -0.3720
GBP/USD 1.29372 1.29581 1.28519 1.28831 -0.0054
USD/CHF 0.99538 0.9969 0.99261 0.99342 -0.0020
USD/CAD 1.30518 1.31178 1.30044 1.30243 -0.0026
EUR/JPY 129.166 129.433 128.535 128.853 -0.3100
GBP/JPY 144.081 144.254 142.704 142.985 -1.1140
CHF/JPY 111.842 111.998 111.304 111.744 -0.1030
AUD/JPY 82.629 82.764 82.0748 82.487 -0.1370
EUR/GBP 0.89621 0.90151 0.89574 0.90132 0.0051
EUR/CHF 1.1544 1.15552 1.15252 1.15333 -0.0012
GBP/CHF 1.28792 1.28863 1.27904 1.27981 -0.0082

 

 

 

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1525 1.1548 1.1580 1.1603 1.1635 1.1658 1.1690
USD/JPY 110.13 110.48 110.73 111.08 111.34 111.68 111.94
GBP/USD 1.2731 1.2792 1.2837 1.2898 1.2944 1.3004 1.3050
USD/CHF 0.9874 0.9900 0.9917 0.9943 0.9960 0.9986 1.0003
USD/CAD 1.2866 1.2935 1.2980 1.3049 1.3093 1.3162 1.3207
EUR/JPY 127.55 128.04 128.45 128.94 129.35 129.84 130.24
GBP/JPY 140.82 141.76 142.37 143.31 143.92 144.86 145.47
CHF/JPY 110.67 110.99 111.37 111.68 112.06 112.38 112.75
AUD/JPY 81.43 81.75 82.12 82.44 82.81 83.13 83.50
EUR/GBP 0.8918 0.8938 0.8975 0.8995 0.9033 0.9053 0.9091
EUR/CHF 1.1491 1.1508 1.1521 1.1538 1.1551 1.1568 1.1581
GBP/CHF 1.2668 1.2729 1.2764 1.2825 1.2859 1.2921 1.2955

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

 

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

08 Ago 2018

Daily Market View

 

Daily Market View

Wednesday, August 08, 2018
          U.S Stock Market

 

DJIA S & P 500 NASDAQ
25596 2859.50 7477.00
+0.50% +0.28% +0.31%

U.S stocks closed higher yesterday as investors continued to brush aside anxiety over the trade war between the U.S and China and instead focus on positive corporate earnings. The NASDAQ rose for a sixth day in a row, its longest winning streak since March, led by Tesla Inc., which spiked following a tweet from Chief Executive Elon Musk that he was considering a move to take the company private, which was followed by confirmation from the company. The S&P 500 index rose 8.05 points, or 0.3%, gaining for a fourth session in a row as energy and industrial sectors led. The benchmark index is only 0.5% below its record close reached on Jan. 26. The Nasdaq Composite Index gained 23.99 points, or 0.3%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced for a third session, adding 126.73 points, or 0.5%. On the economic-data front, the latest report from the Labor Department showed there were 6.66 million job openings at the end of June, up fractionally from May’s levels and the third highest in history.

 

Major Economic Releases for Today
Period Event GMT Forecast Previous

jun

Australia Home Loans (MoM) 01:30 0.0% 1.1%

aug

RBA Governor Lowe Speech in Sydney 03:05    

jul

Japan Bankruptcies (YoY) 04:30   -2.26%

aug

U.S MBA Mortgage Applications 11:00    

jun

Canada Building Permits (MoM) 12:30 -1.2% 4.7%

aug

DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories 14:30    

aug

New Zealand RBNZ Official Cash Rate 21:00 1.75% 1.75%

jul

U.K RICS House Price Balance 23:01 3.0% 3.0%

jun

Japan Machine Orders (YoY) 23:50 10.0% 16.5%
Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.50% to hit new 3-months high yesterday. The best performers of the session on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were Caterpillar Inc., which rose 2.08% or 2.90 points to trade at 142.38 at the close. Meanwhile, Exxon Mobil Corp added 1.36% or 1.09 points to end at 81.27 and Nike Inc. was up 1.28% or 1.02 points to 80.53 in late trade. The worst performers of the session were Apple Inc., which fell 0.94% or 1.96 points to trade at 207.11 at the close. Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. declined 0.55% or 0.37 points to end at 67.05 and Pfizer Inc. was down 0.49% or 0.20 points to 40.84.

 

 

NASDAQ 100

The tech heavy NASDAQ index climbed 0.31% yesterday. The top performers on the NASDAQ Composite were Wins Finance Holdings Inc. which rose 96.79% to 120.00, iFresh Inc. which was up 71.25% to settle at 4.11 and Egalet Corp which gained 36.42% to close at 0.58. The worst performers were Bellerophon Therapeutics Inc. which was down 68.44% to 0.710 in late trade, Gemphire Therapeutics Inc. which lost 50.55% to settle at 3.63 and Luminex Corporation which was down 28.04% to 24.98 at the close.

Oil

Crude-oil prices finished higher in yesterday’s trading session, with reinstated U.S sanctions against Iran seen as a threat to global supplies, especially after Saudi Arabia’s production has also recently contracted. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate futures for September delivery rose 16 cents, or 0.2%, to $69.17 a barrel. The settlement marked the highest level for the most-active contract since July 30, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Brent crude for October the global benchmark was up 54 cents, or 0.7%, to $73.75 a barrel on London’s Intercontinental Exchange. Brent also booked its highest close in more than a week. Both contracts have gained for two of the past three sessions, moving within a relatively narrow range. The sanctions will remain in effect, U.S. officials said, unless Tehran meets a dozen stringent demands, including that it cease its support for militant groups in the Middle East and end its enrichment of uranium.

 

 

Precious and Base Metals

Gold climbed nearly 1 percent yesterday, having drifted near $1,200 an ounce this week, as the dollar fell versus the Yuan while investors focused on strong corporate earnings rather than China-U.S. trade tensions. At the moment gold is more sensitive to the Yuan than the dollar (index), so if the dollar is rallying but not against the Yuan, gold is stable. The correlation (with the Yuan) is almost one on one. Chinese shares jumped the most in more than two years on hopes of fresh government spending and amid a pause in trade tensions, while the dollar slid versus the Yuan and a currency basket. A weak dollar makes dollar-priced gold cheaper for non-U.S. investors. Spot gold was up 0.7 percent at $1,214.96 an ounce, while U.S. gold futures were up 0.5 percent at $1,223.20 an ounce. Gold has dropped nearly 12 percent since mid-April, largely failing to benefit from trade tensions that have directed safety flows into the dollar away from other traditional safe havens such as gold. World shares edged towards a six-month high amid the rally in Chinese stocks and strong corporate earnings, with investors setting aside for now a host of simmering global feuds including a U.S. move to re-impose some sanctions on Iran. Those sanctions include precious metals, U.S banknotes, steel and coal. We believe a reversal in gold prices is in the offing, as speculation of a trade war and Iranian sanctions are turning into reality. Further, record short investors positions in gold strengthen our conviction of a price recovery in H2. U.S. data from last week showed investors added 13,931 contracts to their net short position in the week to July 31, bringing it to 41,087 contracts, the biggest since records became publicly available in 2006. Silver rose 1.1 percent to $15.43 an ounce. Platinum gained 1.6 percent to $833.97 per ounce.

 

 

Traditional Agricultures

Wheat retreated after closing at a three-year high on Monday, weighed down by slow demand for U.S exports despite expected crop shortfalls in several major exporting countries. Soybean futures firmed on Tuesday after a weekly government survey lowered condition ratings for the U.S crop by more than expected, raising concern about a smaller harvest this autumn.

 

Futures Settlement Price Tuesday, August 07, 2018
Instrument Contract Open High Low Settlement Net Change
DJIA DJM18 25470 25658 25458 25596 125
S & P 500 SPM18 2849.25 2863.5 2848 2859.5 9
NASDAQ 100 NDM18 7441.5 7486.25 7439.75 7477 32
Hang Seng HSH18 27803 28229 27767 28199 465
Nikkei 225 NKH18 22535 22645 22510 22635 150
FTSE 100 FTH18 7611.5 7692 7610.5 7658 54.5
Gold GCJ18 1215.9 1224 1215.5 1218.6 2.8
Silver SIK18 1530.5 1549 1529.5 1537.5 5.5
Copper HGK18 272.5 276.65 272.2 275.2 2.25
Crude Oil CLK18 68.87 69.79 68.77 69.06 0.09
Wheat WK18 575 585.75 563.75 568.5 -5.75
Soybeans SK18 886 897.25 885.75 894.75 11.5
Corn CK18 370 373 368.85 370.25 -1

 

 

Daily Swings  (The Pivot Levels)
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
DJM18 25283 25371 25483 25571 25683 25771 25883
SPM18 2835.00 2841.50 2850.50 2857.00 2866.00 2872.50 2881.50
NDM18 7402.58 7421.17 7449.08 7467.67 7495.58 7514.17 7542.08
HSH18 27439 27603 27901 28065 28363 28527 28825
NKH18 22413 22462 22548 22597 22683 22732 22818
FTH18 7533.50 7572.00 7615.00 7653.50 7696.50 7735.00 7778.00
GCJ18 1206.23 1210.87 1214.73 1219.37 1223.23 1227.87 1231.73
SIK18 1508.83 1519.17 1528.33 1538.67 1547.83 1558.17 1567.33
HGK18 268.27 270.23 272.72 274.68 277.17 279.13 281.62
CLK18 67.60 68.19 68.62 69.21 69.64 70.23 70.66
WK18 537.58 550.67 559.58 572.67 581.58 594.67 603.58
SK18 876.42 881.08 887.92 892.58 899.42 904.08 910.92
CK18 364.25 366.55 368.40 370.70 372.55 374.85 376.70

 Source: – News & Quotes (Courtesy:  Reuters)                                                                    

 

08 Ago 2018

FOREX Newsletter

   

FOREX Newsletter

August 08, 2018

 

Pulse of the Market

·      Trade uncertainty has boosted the Greenback in the last few months

·      U.S economic data showed U.S job openings undershot economists’ estimates

·      Sterling was higher despite worry over the possibility of a no-deal Brexit

·      The RBA statement was mixed with central bank downgrading its inflation outlook

The U.S Dollar fell against its rivals yesterday, pressured by a rise in the Chinese Yuan as the People’s Bank of China reportedly made a fresh attempt to steady the currency. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, rose by 0.22% to 94.99. The People’s Bank of China, PBoC, urged some lenders to prevent any “herd behavior” in the currency market, Bloomberg reported, citing people familiar with the matter. Some said the request from China’s central bank was an attempt at curbing large banks from initiating the same positions as clients, or engaging in “herd behavior,” amid a recent wave of bets against the yuan. The move helped stabilized the offshore yuan and arrived just days after the PBoC on Friday raised the cost of shorting the currency. A falling yuan runs the risk of large investment outflows from the China at a time of heightened concerns that President Donald Trump could up the trade-war ante with harsher trade penalties, stifling China’s economy. U.S. economic data showing U.S. job openings undershot economists’ estimates did little to help the greenback’s attempt at paring losses. The U.S. Labor Department’s latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report, a measure of labor demand, showed job openings in June came in at 6.66 million, missing expectations of 6.74 million. Elsewhere, a stronger euro also weighed on the dollar, despite a steeper-than-expected decline in German industrial production. Sterling was also higher, with GBP/USD rising 0.07% to 1.2952, despite worry over the possibility of a no-deal Brexit. The Australian dollar recovered with AUD/USD up 0.51% to 0.7425, while NZD/USD was up 0.09% to 0.6738. The loonie was lower against the greenback, with USD/CAD up 0.08% to 1.3014. Canada runs a current account deficit, so its economy could be hurt if the flow of trade or capital slows. The country is in talks with the United States and Mexico to revamp the North American Free Trade Agreement. Canadian government bond prices were lower across a flatter yield curve. The only event risk on the docket was the RBA rate decision which proved to be a non-mover as expected with the central bank holding rates steady for 19th consecutive month.

 

 

Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
01:30 Australia Home Loans (MoM) (JUN) Medium   0.0% 1.1%
03:05 RBA Governor Lowe Speech in Sydney (AUG 8) High      
04:30 Japan Bankruptcies (YoY) (JUL) Medium     -2.26%
05:00 Japan Eco Watchers Survey Current (JUL) Medium   47.8 48.1
11:00 U.S MBA Mortgage Applications (AUG 3) Medium      
12:30 Canada Building Permits (MoM) (JUN) Medium   -1.2% 4.7%
14:30 DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (AUG 3) Medium      
21:00 RBNZ Official Cash Rate (AUG 9) High   1.75% 1.75%
23:01 U.K RICS House Price Balance (JUL) Medium   3.0% 2.0%
23:50 Japan Housing Loans (YoY) (2Q) Medium     2.7%
23:50 Japan Machine Orders (YoY) (JUN) Medium   10.0% 16.5%

 

Euro

The single currency edged higher yesterday, bouncing from a near six-week low hit in the previous session, though major currencies remained trapped in broad ranges as investors hunted for fresh triggers in foreign exchange markets. Financial markets expect another 40 basis points in rate increases from the US Federal Reserve. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1549 and a high of 1.1606 before closing the day around 1.1597 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen was slightly higher against the US dollar, while weakening against all other major currencies. Yesterday, the yen ended the day slightly lower against the US dollar. Following last week’s Bank of Japan meeting, trading volumes in the yen have been falling for the last five trading sessions in a row.  Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 110.97 and a high of 111.46 before closing the day around 111.36 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound has stabilized a little after this week’s drop to an 11 month low on growing concerns about a no-deal Brexit. It has gained a little ground against the dollar – up 0.03% – but is still in negative territory against the euro – down 0.37%. On the economic front, UK house prices grew by 1.4% month on month in July. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.2921 and a high of 1.2971 before closing the day at 1.2937 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar strengthened to a nearly eight-week high against its U.S counterpart yesterday as oil prices rose and the greenback broadly fell. The price of oil, one of Canada’s major exports, was boosted by revived U.S. sanctions against major crude exporter Iran that could tighten global supply. U.S crude prices were up 0.8 per cent at $69.53 a barrel. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.2960 and a high of 1.3073 before closing the day at 1.3050 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar firmed against the US Dollar (USD) yesterday. This is the best level of AUD/USD trading in a week and comes from growing risk sentiment after a high-impact Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting. RBA officials left interest rates on hold at 1.5% as expected, but there were hints about a potential rate hike coming in 2019 or 2020. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7380 and a high of 0.7437 before closing the day at 0.7421 in the New York session.

 

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is also issuing a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 45 and lies below the neutral zone. In general, the pair has gained 0.34%.

 

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish tone and MACD is also indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 34 reading and lies below the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.09%.

  

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is also indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 52 reading and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.39%.

  

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bearish tone and MACD is issuing a bullish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 66 and lies above the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has gained 0.39%.

  

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading above 14, 50 and below 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish stance and MACD is indicating a bullish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 31 and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.21%.

 

 

Appendix

  

FOREX Closing Prices for August 07, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.15515 1.16067 1.15492 1.15972 0.0042
USD/JPY 111.387 111.46 110.973 111.365 -0.0500
GBP/USD 1.2942 1.29719 1.29219 1.29375 -0.0008
USD/CHF 0.99625 0.99671 0.99288 0.99538 -0.0013
USD/CAD 1.30008 1.3073 1.296 1.30507 0.0046
EUR/JPY 128.68 129.209 128.571 129.163 0.4370
GBP/JPY 144.168 144.414 143.783 144.099 -0.1250
CHF/JPY 111.783 111.935 111.621 111.847 0.0520
AUD/JPY 82.259 82.727 82.147 82.624 0.3170
EUR/GBP 0.89235 0.89641 0.89209 0.89617 0.0035
EUR/CHF 1.15099 1.15466 1.1509 1.1545 0.0028
GBP/CHF 1.28923 1.29116 1.28664 1.28798 -0.0027

 

 

 

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1505 1.1527 1.1562 1.1584 1.1620 1.1642 1.1677
USD/JPY 110.59 110.78 111.07 111.27 111.56 111.75 112.05
GBP/USD 1.2866 1.2894 1.2916 1.2944 1.2966 1.2994 1.3016
USD/CHF 0.9894 0.9912 0.9933 0.9950 0.9971 0.9988 1.0009
USD/CAD 1.2870 1.2915 1.2983 1.3028 1.3096 1.3141 1.3209
EUR/JPY 128.12 128.34 128.75 128.98 129.39 129.62 130.03
GBP/JPY 143.15 143.47 143.78 144.10 144.41 144.73 145.05
CHF/JPY 111.35 111.49 111.67 111.80 111.98 112.12 112.30
AUD/JPY 81.69 81.92 82.27 82.50 82.85 83.08 83.43
EUR/GBP 0.8891 0.8906 0.8934 0.8949 0.8977 0.8992 0.9020
EUR/CHF 1.1483 1.1496 1.1520 1.1534 1.1558 1.1571 1.1596
GBP/CHF 1.2815 1.2841 1.2860 1.2886 1.2905 1.2931 1.2951

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

 

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