24 Ago 2018

FOREX Newsletter

      

FOREX Newsletter

August 24, 2018

 

Pulse of the Market

·      The main focus will be the Federal Reserve’s annual economic symposium at Jackson Hole today

·      There was no specific driver for the slide in the British pound

·      Economic activity in the Eurozone expanded at a faster pace in August according to the PMIs

·      Political troubles in Australia sent the Australian dollar tumbling more than 1%

The U.S Dollar is back but the Australian Dollar is in trouble. After falling in the front of the week, the greenback regained momentum yesterday to trade higher against all of the major currencies. Nothing came out of trade talks between the U.S. and China – both parties moved ahead with tariffs on $16B worth of goods so the focus shifts to the Federal Reserve’s annual economic symposium at Jackson Hole. It’s a 3-day meeting that begins tonight and all of the major speeches will be made today starting with Jerome Powell’s remarks. This will be his first symposium as Fed Chair. We know BoC Governor Poloz will be attending but BoJ Governor Kuroda will be skipping the event and its not clear whether BoE Governor Carney, who did not attend last year will appear at the event. Earlier this week, President Trump sent the Dollar tumbling when he lamented about Fed tightening. It is not the first time that we’ve heard the President criticize his Fed Chief and it won’t be his last. However, the best way for Powell to handle Trump’s comments is to ignore them. There’s no winning in going against his boss or agreeing with him which would suggest that the central bank has lost its independence. So the only response is no response at all. The Fed may slow down tightening, but it won’t be because of Presidential pressure. On the other hand, Powell could have a lot to say about trade and the global economic outlook which is slowing. According to the FOMC minutes, even before Jackson Hole, policymakers were worried about trade, housing, and emerging markets. If Powell suggests that this could affect the U.S’ economy outlook, the Dollar could take a hit. Investors will be looking for any indication of a possible slowing of Fed tightening. Not only could it be necessary because of slower growth but the yield curve is at risk of inverting which is troubling for many businesses and policymakers. Meanwhile, political troubles in Australia sent the Australian Dollar tumbling more than 1%. Prime Minister Turnbull faces another leadership challenge tonight or over the weekend after his own party pulled their support. Adding fuel to the fire was the Australian government’s decision to ban Chinese maker Huawei from participating in the build-out of the 5G infrastructure on security grounds. The news is sure to further aggravate the already shaky Sino-Australian relations and could be a source of constant pressure on Aussie. The pair dropped below the .7300 figure and appears poised for a test of .7200. The recovery in the U.S. dollar also sent euro and sterling lower but the euro was the day’s most resilient currency thanks to comments from BUBA President Jens Weidmann and economic data.

 

 

 

Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
06:00 German Domestic Demand (2Q) Low   0.6% 0.4%
06:00 German Gross Domestic Product n.s.a. (YoY) (2Q) Medium   2.3% 2.3%
08:30 U.K BBA Loans for House Purchase (JUL) Medium   40500 40541
12:30 U.S Durable Goods Orders (JUL) High   -0.5% 0.8%
12:30 U.S Durables Ex Transportation (JUL) Medium   0.5% 0.2%
14:00 U.S Fed Hosts Annual Jackson Hole Central Banking Symposium High      
14:00 U.S Powell to Discuss Economy and Monetary Policy at Jackson Hole High      
17:00 Baker Hughes U.S Rig Count (AUG 24) Medium      

 

Euro

The single currency turned lower against the US Dollar Thursday after ISH Markit surveys revealed a further slowdown in the Eurozone’s manufacturing sector during August, suggesting the continental economy is yet to rebound from the slowdown seen at the start of the year. IHS Markit’s Eurozone manufacturing PMI fell to 54.6 in August. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1528 and a high of 1.1598 before closing the day around 1.1537 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen pair has posted broad gains in yesterday’s session. In the U.S, employment claims edged lower to 210 thousand, beating the estimate of 215 thousand. New Home Sales fell to 627 thousand, well short of the estimate of 641 thousand. This was the second housing report in as many days to miss expectations.  Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 110.50 and a high of 111.29 before closing the day around 111.27 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound dropped against the dollar and euro in yesterday’s trading session, after Brexit secretary Dominic Raab unveiled the first of his department’s contingency plans for a no-deal exit from the EU. As it has been stated by European officials that the Brexit talks are heading into their final chapter. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.2803 and a high of 1.2917 before closing the day at 1.2811 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar weakened, pulling back from a two-week high the day before, as the greenback rose broadly ahead of a speech today by Fed Chairman. The U.S dollar snapped a five-day losing streak, as a new round of U.S-Chinese punitive trade tariffs boosted the greenback and the annual Federal Reserve conference began in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.  Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.2990 and a high of 1.3096 before closing the day at 1.3079 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar fell sharply as leadership jostling reached fever pitch in yesterday’s session, undermining confidence in the government and Australian assets in the eyes of global investors. Markets are used to political turmoil and dysfunction in Australia, but certain developments may have prompted a knee-jerk reaction yesterday, Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7238 and a high of 0.7354 before closing the day at 0.7247 in the New York session.

 

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 51 and lies above the neutral zone. In general, the pair has gained 0.13%.

 

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bullish tone and MACD is also indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 42 reading and lies below the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.16%.

  

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 39 reading and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.18%.

  

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 64 and lies above the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has gained 0.27%.

 

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish stance and MACD is also indicating a bearish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 27 and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.51%.

 

Appendix

  

FOREX Closing Prices for August 23, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.15955 1.15981 1.15285 1.15378 -0.0061
USD/JPY 110.556 111.298 110.5 111.27 0.7010
GBP/USD 1.29078 1.29174 1.2803 1.28111 -0.0103
USD/CHF 0.98302 0.98647 0.98202 0.98599 0.0028
USD/CAD 1.29926 1.30969 1.29905 1.30793 0.0079
EUR/JPY 128.209 128.744 127.894 128.392 0.1680
GBP/JPY 142.708 142.986 142.398 142.55 -0.2270
CHF/JPY 112.423 112.939 112.354 112.82 0.3430
AUD/JPY 81.227 81.31 80.54 80.626 -0.6470
EUR/GBP 0.8982 0.90216 0.89682 0.90059 0.0024
EUR/CHF 1.14008 1.14057 1.13626 1.13785 -0.0024
GBP/CHF 1.26896 1.26967 1.26228 1.26308 -0.0065

 

 

 

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1442 1.1485 1.1512 1.1555 1.1581 1.1624 1.1651
USD/JPY 109.95 110.22 110.75 111.02 111.55 111.82 112.34
GBP/USD 1.2656 1.2729 1.2770 1.2844 1.2885 1.2958 1.2999
USD/CHF 0.9787 0.9804 0.9832 0.9848 0.9876 0.9893 0.9921
USD/CAD 1.2908 1.2949 1.3014 1.3056 1.3121 1.3162 1.3227
EUR/JPY 127.09 127.49 127.94 128.34 128.79 129.19 129.64
GBP/JPY 141.72 142.06 142.30 142.64 142.89 143.23 143.48
CHF/JPY 111.88 112.12 112.47 112.70 113.05 113.29 113.64
AUD/JPY 79.57 80.06 80.34 80.83 81.11 81.60 81.88
EUR/GBP 0.8922 0.8945 0.8976 0.8999 0.9029 0.9052 0.9082
EUR/CHF 1.1316 1.1339 1.1359 1.1382 1.1402 1.1425 1.1445
GBP/CHF 1.2530 1.2576 1.2604 1.2650 1.2677 1.2724 1.2751

 

 

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

 

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

24 Ago 2018

 Daily Market View

 

Daily Market View

Friday, August 24, 2018
          U.S Stock Market

 

DJIA S & P 500 NASDAQ
25668 2857.75 7424.25
-0.30% -0.17% -0.13%

Stocks fell yesterday as an ongoing trade war between the U.S and China and worries of renewed legal issues for President Donald Trump dampened investor sentiment. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 76.62 points as Caterpillar lagged. The closed 0.2 percent lower with materials falling more than 0.6 percent. The NASDAQ slipped 0.1 percent. Caterpillar and Boeing, two bellwethers of global trade, fell 2 percent and 0.7 percent, respectively. Deere shares also dipped 1 percent. Tech shares Alibaba and Netflix fell 3.2 percent and 1.5 percent, respectively, giving up earlier gains. Tariffs on $16 billion worth of Chinese import-product categories took effect yesterday. Beijing retaliated with its own fresh tariffs on $16 billion worth of imports. The U.S and China held talks on Wednesday that continued into Thursday, but observers did not have high hopes after Trump said he did not “anticipate much” to be resolved, in an interview with Reuters.

 

Major Economic Releases for Today
Period Event GMT Forecast Previous

         2Q

German Domestic Demand 06:00 0.6% 0.4%

2q

German Gross Domestic Product n.s.a. (YoY) 06:00 2.3% 2.3%

jul

U.K BBA Loans for House Purchase 08:30 40500 40541

jul

U.S Durable Goods Orders 12:30 -0.5% 0.8%

jul

U.S Durables Ex Transportation 12:30 0.5% 0.2%

jun

Mexico Economic Activity IGAE (YoY) 13:00 1.6% 2.23%

 

Fed Hosts Annual Jackson Hole Central Banking Symposium 14:00    

jun

U.S Powell to Discuss Economy and Monetary Policy at Jackson Hole 14:00    

aug

Baker Hughes U.S Rig Count 17:00    
Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.30% yesterday. The best performers of the session on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were Visa Inc., which rose 0.68% or 0.96 points to trade at 142.10 at the close. Meanwhile, Home Depot Inc. added 0.60% or 1.19 points to end at 200.16 and Microsoft Corporation was up 0.47% or 0.50 points to 107.56 in late trade. The worst performers of the session were Caterpillar Inc., which fell 2.03% or 2.84 points to trade at 136.79 at the close. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. declined 1.25% or 3.00 points to end at 236.34 and Exxon Mobil Corp was down 1.10% or 0.88 points to 79.08.

 

NASDAQ 100

The tech heavy NASDAQ index declined 0.13%. The top performers on the NASDAQ Composite were Obalon Therapeutics Inc. which rose 52.00% to 2.66, TMSR Holding Company Ltd which was up 33.61% to settle at 4.81 and Lantronix Inc. which gained 19.67% to close at 5.050. The worst performers were Helios and Matheson Analytics Inc. which was down 32.44% to 0.020 in late trade, PAVmed Inc. which lost 19.57% to settle at 1.11 and Akorn Inc. which was down 17.56% to 14.93 at the close.

Oil

Oil prices steadied yesterday as the escalating trade war between the United States and China weighed on demand expectations a day after prices jumped on a big draw in U.S crude inventories. U.S. light crude was 3 cents lower at $67.83 a barrel. Options activity showed some traders were guarding against the possibility of a sharp slide in U.S crude prices. The market is trying to balance the worries about decreased global demand growth and how much extra oil the Saudis and Russians are going to put on. The U.S.-China trade dispute deepened, with the imposition of 25 percent tariffs on $16 billion worth of each other’s goods. The world’s two largest economies have imposed tariffs on a combined $100 billion of products since early July, and Washington is holding hearings on proposed duties on another $200 billion worth of Chinese imports. China is almost certain to respond. U.S commercial crude oil inventories fell 5.8 million barrels last week.

 

Precious and Base Metals

Gold prices slid yesterday, under pressure from a stronger dollar as a prominent U.S. Federal Reserve official reaffirmed the central bank’s intention to raise interest rates and punitive trade tariffs between the United States and China kicked in. Bullion failed to confirm its brief break on Wednesday through $1,200 an ounce, a key psychological level, as the dollar resumed its ascent a day later. With the dollar stronger again, gold was sliding yesterday. Spot gold declined 0.7 percent to $1,187.30 per ounce. Prices hit their highest since Aug. 13 at $1,201.51 in the previous session. U.S. gold futures for December delivery settled down $9.30, or 0.8 percent, at $1,194 per ounce, as the dollar rose against a basket of major currencies. The Fed’s latest policy meeting minutes suggested it is on course to raise interest rates further after two hikes this year, denting demand for non-interest-yielding gold. Meanwhile, trade tariffs imposed by the United States and China on each other kicked in on Thursday, benefiting the safe-haven U.S. currency. Amid shocks to the global financial system caused by the trade war, investors have opted for the safety of U.S. Treasuries and the U.S. currency, making dollar-denominated gold more expensive for holders of other currencies. Trade tariffs could add to inflation possibilities. Everything is pointing towards inflation returning in the market. When or if companies start to raise prices is still unknown. The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell last week but sales of new single-family homes unexpectedly declined in July. Markets are awaiting Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s comments today at the central bank’s annual meeting in Jackson Hole, Wyoming for any change in its interest rate stance, especially after U.S. President Donald Trump’s attack on its monetary policy this week. Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President Esther George said on Thursday that the Fed will move ahead with rate hikes. Spot silver dropped 1.2 percent to $14.56 an ounce, touching $14.49, a one-week low.

 

 

Traditional Agriculture

Wheat heading lower for a fourth straight session on technical selling and disappointing weekly U.S export sales. The USDA reported export sales of U.S wheat in the latest week at 239,800 tonnes.

 

 

Futures Settlement Price Thursday, August 23, 2018
Instrument Contract Open High Low Settlement Net Change
DJIA DJM18 25729 25764 285605 25668 -51
S & P 500 SPM18 2861.75 2869.5 2854.75 2857.75 -3.75
NASDAQ 100 NDM18 7433 7474.5 7411 7424.25 -8.75
Hang Seng HSH18 27913 27977 27575 27687 -171
Nikkei 225 NKH18 22375 22445 22355 22410 95
FTSE 100 FTH18 7553 7597 7534.5 7536.5 -25.5
Gold GCJ18 1202.5 1203.1 1190 1191.6 -11.2
Silver SIK18 1472.5 1473.5 1444 1446 -29.5
Copper HGK18 266.6 266.8 261.25 264.35 -2.8
Crude Oil CLK18 68.04 68.09 67.29 67.82 -0.36
Wheat WK18 527.25 530.75 515.25 522 -5
Soybeans SK18 854.5 861.25 841.75 842 -16.5
Corn CK18 352.5 354.5 346 346.25 -7

 

 

Daily Swings  (The Pivot Levels)
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
DJM18 458768 372187 198927 112346 -60914 -147495 -320755
SPM18 2837.08 2845.92 2851.83 2860.67 2866.58 2875.42 2881.33
NDM18 7335.17 7373.08 7398.67 7436.58 7462.17 7500.08 7525.67
HSH18 27114 27344 27516 27746 27918 28148 28320
NKH18 22272 22313 22362 22403 22452 22493 22542
FTH18 7452.50 7493.50 7515.00 7556.00 7577.50 7618.50 7640.00
GCJ18 1173.60 1181.80 1186.70 1194.90 1199.80 1208.00 1212.90
SIK18 1406.00 1425.00 1435.50 1454.50 1465.00 1484.00 1494.50
HGK18 255.92 258.58 261.47 264.13 267.02 269.68 272.57
CLK18 66.58 66.93 67.38 67.73 68.18 68.53 68.98
WK18 499.08 507.17 514.58 522.67 530.08 538.17 545.58
SK18 815.92 828.83 835.42 848.33 854.92 867.83 874.42
CK18 334.83 340.42 343.33 348.92 351.83 357.42 360.33

 

 

 Source: – News & Quotes (Courtesy:  Reuters)                                                                    

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

 

 

 

 

21 Ago 2018

Daily  Market View

    

Daily  Market View

Tuesday, August 21, 2018
          U.S Stock Market

 

DJIA S & P 500 NASDAQ
25761 2859.00 7388.00
+0.13% +0.08% +0.13%

U.S stocks closed higher for a third session yesterday as a pair of billion-dollar deals reaffirmed confidence that the U.S economy continues its steady expansion. Optimism that progress would be made toward resolving contentious trade disputes between the U.S and China also bolstered sentiment.  The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 89.37 points, or 0.4%, with Nike Inc. rising 3.1% to hit a 52-week high. The S&P 500 index climbed 6.92 points, or 0.2%, led by materials and energy sectors. The NASDAQ Index reversed earlier losses to advance 4.68 points. U.S. equities rose sharply last week, on hopes for improving trade relations, as well as signs of stabilization in Turkey’s currency market. The Dow jumped 1.4%, a move that took it to its highest close since February. The S&P 500 added 0.6% and is within 1% of its record. The NASDAQ dipped 0.3% over the course of last week, but it is also within striking distance of its record. However, this week will also see the imposition of 25% tariffs on $16 billion worth of Chinese imports.

 

 

Major Economic Releases for Today
Period Event GMT Forecast Previous

        aug

RBA Meeting Minutes 01:30    

jul

New Zealand Credit Card Spending (YoY) 03:00   5.7%

jul

Japan Nationwide Dept Sales (YoY) 05:30   3.1%

jul

Japan Machine Tool Orders (YoY) 06:00   13.0%

jul

U.K Public Finances (PSNCR) (Pounds) 08:30   13.3b

jul

U.K Central Government NCR 08:30   13.6b

jul

U.K Public Sector Net Borrowing 08:30 -2.2b 4.5b

jun

Canada Wholesale Trade Sales (MoM) 12:30 0.7% 1.2%

2Q

New Zealand Retail Sales Ex Inflation (QoQ) 22:45 0.3% 0.1%
Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.35% to hit new 6-months high yesterday. The best performers of the session on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were Nike Inc., which rose 3.05% or 2.43 points to trade at 82.18 at the close. Meanwhile, Johnson & Johnson added 1.79% or 2.41 points to end at 136.88 and Merck & Company Inc. was up 1.61% or 1.11 points to 70.17 in late trade. The worst performers of the session were Walmart Inc., which fell 1.89% or 1.85 points to trade at 96.00 at the close. Intel Corporation declined 1.27% or 0.60 points to end at 46.50 and Apple Inc. was down 0.97% or 2.12 points to 215.46.

 

NASDAQ 100

The tech heavy NASDAQ index climbed 0.06% yesterday. The top performers on the NASDAQ Composite were Seven Stars Cloud Group Inc. which rose 52.53% to 3.020, China Commercial Credit Inc. which was up 30.53% to settle at 0.7700 and Grindrod Shipping Holdings Ltd which gained 30.34% to close at 11.60. The worst performers were NF Energy Saving Corporation which was down 21.26% to 4.3700 in late trade, Aralez Pharmaceuticals Inc. which lost 19.58% to settle at 0.03 and Zion Oil & Gas Inc. which was down 16.85% to 1.530 at the close.

Oil

Oil prices edged higher today as U.S fuel markets were seen to be tightening while looming American sanctions against Iran were expected to cut supply out of global markets. U.S West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures for September delivery were up 27 cents, or 0.4 percent. Traders said U.S. markets were lifted by a tightening outlook for fuel markets in the coming months. Inventories in the United States for refined products such as diesel and heating oil for this time of year are at their lowest in four years. This is occurring just ahead of the peak demand period for these fuels, with diesel needed for tractors to harvest crops and the arrival of colder weather during the Northern Hemisphere autumn raising consumption of heating oil. Outside the United States, markets focused on U.S. sanctions against Iran, which from November will target its oil sector. The impact of the Iran sanctions is not yet clear.

 

Precious and Base Metals

Gold prices climbed on the back of a weaker dollar today, extending gains into a third session, after U.S President Donald Trump said he was “not thrilled” with the Federal Reserve for raising interest rates. Spot gold was up 0.3 percent at $1,193.92 an ounce after gaining 0.5 percent in the previous session. U.S. gold futures were up 0.5 percent at $1,200.6 an ounce. Trump’s remarks are having a negative effect on the U.S. dollar, and in turn, lending support to gold prices. The dollar sagged against major peers and the yen today after Trump criticized his own appointee, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, for raising interest rates. Gold is highly sensitive to rising U.S. rates, as these increases the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion while boosting the dollar, in which it is priced. The U.S central bank has raised rates twice this year and targets two more hikes, with the next one slated in September. However, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic on Monday said he was maintaining his expectation for one more interest rate hike this year. Meanwhile, investors looked ahead to the release of Fed’s August meeting minutes on Wednesday and the bank’s annual policy symposium at Jackson Hole later this week. Until there is a sustained sell-off in the dollar, speculators will be more prone to sell upticks in gold. In equity markets, Asian stocks rose on Tuesday, supported by hopes that Beijing and Washington would dial back trade hostilities ahead of a U.S.-China meeting this week, but comments from Trump about manipulation of the yuan and the Federal Reserve policy capped gains. Among other precious metals, spot silver climbed 0.3 percent to $14.75 an ounce. Platinum rose 0.6 percent to $798.50, while palladium remained steady at $910.50. Copper rebounded from three straight weekly declines as U.S-China trade tensions eased and a jump in orders for the metal pointed to stronger demand.

 

 

Traditional Agriculture

Wheat futures fell three per cent yesterday on expectations of a pickup in Russian wheat exports in the next few months as shippers try to get ahead of potential export curbs, traders said, while soybeans clung to modest advances. Corn followed wheat lower yesterday.

 

 

Futures Settlement Price Monday, August 20, 2018
Instrument Contract Open High Low Settlement Net Change
DJIA DJM18 25699 25788 25660 25761 83
S & P 500 SPM18 2851.5 2860.5 2850 2859 6.25
NASDAQ 100 NDM18 7390.25 7420.5 7351.25 7388 -0.25
Hang Seng HSH18 27194 27549 27135 27520 379
Nikkei 225 NKH18 22240 22265 22125 22180 -90
FTSE 100 FTH18 7548.5 7608 7547 7583 28
Gold GCJ18 1190.8 1197.5 1189.6 1197.5 13.1
Silver SIK18 1475 1482 1461.5 1475.5 11
Copper HGK18 265.3 268.2 264.15 267.05 3.7
Crude Oil CLK18 65.12 65.59 64.81 65.51 0.21
Wheat WK18 558.25 559 540.25 543.25 -16.5
Soybeans SK18 886.5 894.25 880.25 883.5 0.25
Corn CK18 363.75 365.25 359.25 363 -2

 

 

Daily Swings  (The Pivot Levels)
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
DJM18 25557 25608 25685 25736 25813 25864 25941
SPM18 2842.00 2846.00 2852.50 2856.50 2863.00 2867.00 2873.50
NDM18 7283.42 7317.33 7352.67 7386.58 7421.92 7455.83 7491.17
HSH18 26840 26987 27254 27401 27668 27815 28082
NKH18 21975 22050 22115 22190 22255 22330 22395
FTH18 7489.67 7518.33 7550.67 7579.33 7611.67 7640.33 7672.67
GCJ18 1184.33 1186.97 1192.23 1194.87 1200.13 1202.77 1208.03
SIK18 1443.50 1452.50 1464.00 1473.00 1484.50 1493.50 1505.00
HGK18 260.68 262.42 264.73 266.47 268.78 270.52 272.83
CLK18 64.24 64.52 65.02 65.30 65.80 66.08 66.58
WK18 517.25 528.75 536.00 547.50 554.75 566.25 573.50
SK18 863.75 872.00 877.75 886.00 891.75 900.00 905.75
CK18 353.75 356.50 359.75 362.50 365.75 368.50 371.75

 

 

 

 Source: – News & Quotes (Courtesy:  Reuters)                                                                    

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

 

 

 

 

21 Ago 2018

FOREX Newsletter

   

FOREX Newsletter

August 21, 2018
 

 

Pulse of the Market

·      President Trump complained about the Fed’s rate hikes at a Hamptons fundraiser this weekend

·      China – U.S trade talks and the Jackson Hole summit could affect all of the major currencies

·      As for Brexit, investors don’t expect any significant progress with the deadline quickly approaching

·      The rally in the Euro was driven by the combination of U.S Dollar selling and short covering

The U.S Dollar started this new trading week with another day of losses. The greenback either held steady or extended its slide against all of the major currencies. While there were no buyers at the start of the NY session, the selling only gained momentum on reports that President Trump complained about the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes at a Hamptons fundraiser this weekend. This is the second time that we’ve heard the President lament about Fed tightening and theoretically, his views are not supposed to affect monetary policy. However, if the central bank raises interest rates next month but fails to commit to a fourth hike, there’s no doubt that some market participants will attribute that to pressure from the President regardless of whether its true. Yet, the real reason why the dollar was down yesterday is because Treasury yields continued to fall and Fed President Bostic said he favors only 3 rate hikes this year, encouraging traders to cover their short positions in euro, sterling and other beta currencies.  The market’s reaction to President Trump’s comments gave investors a taste of what could drive FX flows this week. There are no major U.S economic reports on the calendar and the only pieces of potentially market moving data from other parts of the world are Eurozone PMIs along with Canada and New Zealand’s retail sales reports. As for Brexit, we don’t expect any significant progress but with the October deadline quickly approaching, a lack of positive developments could be perceived as negative for the currency. About 2 years ago, the European Commission’s Chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier gave the UK 18 months to negotiate the terms of exit. The European Union, on the other hand, see the deadline as a way to get the UK to bend so as the clock ticks, not only could the deadline get pushed to November but the chance of no deal increases exponentially. None of this is good for sterling and this explains the restrained rally in GBP/USD despite hefty short positions and decent data. Euro, on the other hand, closed at 1.15. The rally was driven by the combination of U.S. Dollar selling, short covering and the relief that Italian bond yields fell sharply after rising steadily for the past 2 months. According to last week’s CFTC data, speculators are short euros for the first time in over a year. While this may not be surprising or seem significant, it is a big change from April, when euro positions were net long and at their highest level in 2 decades.

 

 

 

Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
01:30 RBA Meeting Minutes (AUG 7) Medium      
03:00 New Zealand Credit Card Spending (YoY) (JUL) Medium 3.2%   5.7%
05:30 Japan Nationwide Dept Sales (YoY) (JUL) Medium -6.1%   3.1%
05:30 Japan Tokyo Dept Store Sales (YoY) (JUL) Medium -4.5%   6.9%
06:00 Japan Machine Tool Orders (YoY) (JUL) Low 13.1%   13.0%
08:30 U.K Public Finances (PSNCR) (Pounds) (JUL) Medium     13.3b
08:30 U.K Central Government NCR (JUL) Medium     13.6b
08:30 U.K Public Sector Net Borrowing (JUL) Medium   -2.2b 4.5b
12:30 Canada Wholesale Trade Sales (MoM) (JUN) Low   0.7% 1.2%
22:45 New Zealand Retail Sales Ex Inflation (QoQ) (2Q) Medium   0.3% 0.1%

 

Euro

The single currency has been somewhat noisy during the session but in a good way. The market had beaten this currency down but it seems like fears about the Turkish lira and contagion are starting to drop off a bit. That’s a good sign, and it seems as if the attitudes of traders around the world is the step back a bit. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1393 and a high of 1.1483 before closing the day around 1.1483 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen pair finished lower last week for the fourth week out of five as investors pumped money in the Japanese Yen due to safe-haven buying related to the financial crisis in Turkey and its impact on emerging markets. Falling U.S Treasury yields helped tighten the spread between U.S. Government bond yields and Japanese Government bond yields. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 110.00 and a high of 110.66 before closing the day around 110.08 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

 

The British Pound continues to get punished for all things Brexit and of course an inability of Conservative Party members in the U.K to get it together and present a united front. People are starting to price in the idea of a “no deal Brexit”, so things are becoming much more negative. At this point, the trade of the century might be buying the Pound at low levels. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.2727 and a high of 1.2797 before closing the day at 1.2797 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar rose to a 10-day high against its U.S counterpart yesterday, as oil prices climbed and U.S President Donald Trump said he disagreed with the U.S Federal Reserve’s decision to raise interest rates. The U.S Dollar fell against a basket of major currencies as Trump showed his displeasure with Fed tightening. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.3037 and a high of 1.3090 before closing the day at 1.3046 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar finished higher last week. Aussie was driven sharply lower early in the last week by a stronger U.S Dollar before reversing to the upside. Some of the pressure came from spillover selling related to the previous week’s dovish monetary policy statements. There were also concerns raised over a weakening China economy. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7293 and a high of 0.7342 before closing the day at 0.7340 in the New York session.

 

 

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is issuing a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 38 and lies below the neutral zone. In general, the pair has lost 0.05%.

 

  

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bullish tone and MACD is indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 29 reading and lies below the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.07%.

 

 

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 41 reading and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.08%.

 

  

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 62 and lies above the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has gained 0.02%.

 

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish stance and MACD is also indicating a bearish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 29 and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.03%.

 

 

Appendix

 

 

FOREX Closing Prices for August 20, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.14352 1.14836 1.1393 1.14836 0.0042
USD/JPY 110.499 110.665 110.002 110.084 -0.4560
GBP/USD 1.27432 1.27978 1.27276 1.27971 0.0045
USD/CHF 0.99507 0.99667 0.99089 0.99166 -0.0039
USD/CAD 1.30551 1.30904 1.30374 1.30463 -0.0016
EUR/JPY 126.374 126.441 126.052 126.4 -0.0610
GBP/JPY 140.828 141.195 140.694 140.865 -0.0920
CHF/JPY 111.016 111.21 110.915 111.03 -0.0240
AUD/JPY 80.788 80.921 80.559 80.79 -0.0660
EUR/GBP 0.89716 0.89743 0.89377 0.89743 0.0002
EUR/CHF 1.138 1.1386 1.13516 1.1386 -0.0004
GBP/CHF 1.26819 1.27094 1.26637 1.26918 -0.0004

 

 

 

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1333 1.1363 1.1423 1.1453 1.1514 1.1544 1.1604
USD/JPY 109.17 109.59 109.84 110.25 110.50 110.91 111.16
GBP/USD 1.2680 1.2704 1.2751 1.2774 1.2821 1.2844 1.2891
USD/CHF 0.9837 0.9873 0.9895 0.9931 0.9953 0.9989 1.0010
USD/CAD 1.2973 1.3005 1.3026 1.3058 1.3079 1.3111 1.3132
EUR/JPY 125.77 125.91 126.15 126.30 126.54 126.69 126.93
GBP/JPY 140.14 140.42 140.64 140.92 141.14 141.42 141.64
CHF/JPY 110.60 110.76 110.89 111.05 111.19 111.35 111.48
AUD/JPY 80.23 80.39 80.59 80.76 80.95 81.12 81.32
EUR/GBP 0.8913 0.8926 0.8950 0.8962 0.8987 0.8999 0.9023
EUR/CHF 1.1329 1.1340 1.1363 1.1375 1.1397 1.1409 1.1432
GBP/CHF 1.2622 1.2643 1.2667 1.2688 1.2713 1.2734 1.2759

 

 

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

 

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

20 Ago 2018

Daily Market View

   

Daily Market View

Monday, August 20, 2018
          U.S Stock Market

 

DJIA S & P 500 NASDAQ
25678 2852.75 7388.25
+0.43% +0.33% +0.13%

The U.S stock market is well on its way to better-than-average gains this year, but a quick glance at overseas markets reveals a more sobering story. Global stock markets are having a tough 2018. While the S&P 500 is up more than 6 percent and less than 1 percent away from new highs. Although some have speculated that fears of slower economic growth in China may be partly responsible for feeble stock performance there, Hong Kong and Shanghai are by no means alone. Ever since the Federal Reserve began unwinding its massive balance sheet and hiking interest rates, the U.S. dollar has gradually climbed against a basket of other currencies. All else equal, higher interest rates in a country increase the value of that country’s currency as foreigners flock to take advantage of better yields. A weak dollar tends to juice emerging markets as debt denominated in U.S. dollars becomes easier to repay with local-currency revenue. A stronger greenback, on the other hand, can drive investors back to the dollar.

 

 

Major Economic Releases for Today
Period Event GMT Forecast Previous

        aug

New Zealand Dairy Auction Whole Milk Powder MT     $2958

jul

German Producer Price Index (YoY) 06:00   3.0%

jul

Japan Convenience Store Sales (YoY) 07:00   1.1%

aug

Switzerland Domestic Sight Deposits CHF 08:00    

jun

Euro-Zone Construction Output w.d.a. (YoY) 09:00   1.8%

 

Fed’s Bostic Speaks on U.S. Economic Outlook in Tennessee 15:00    

 

U.S. to Sell 3-Month Bills 15:30    

jul

New Zealand Net Migration s.a. (JUL) 22:45   4840

aug

ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Index 23:30    
Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.43% to hit a new 3-month high. The best performers of the session on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were Caterpillar Inc., which rose 2.25% or 3.06 points to trade at 139.32 at the close. Meanwhile, Apple Inc. added 2.00% or 4.26 points to end at 217.58 and Pfizer Inc. was up 1.59% or 0.66 points to 42.08 in late trade. The worst performers of the session were Walmart Inc., which fell 0.80% or 0.79 points to trade at 97.85 at the close. Nike Inc. declined 0.39% or 0.31 points to end at 79.74 and McDonald’s Corporation was down 0.35% or 0.57 points to 161.16.

 

NASDAQ 100

The tech heavy NASDAQ index gained 0.13% on Friday. The top performers on the NASDAQ Composite were Izea Inc. which rose 33.33% to 1.4600, Sigma Designs Inc. which was up 24.24% to settle at 0.25 and Bellerophon Therapeutics Inc. which gained 22.81% to close at 0.798. The worst performers were Zion Oil & Gas Inc. which was down 27.13% to 1.840 in late trade, Boxlight Corp Class A which lost 18.78% to settle at 3.98 and US Energy Corp which was down 15.69% to 0.8600 at the close.

Oil

Crude prices rose on Friday, but declined on the week on worries that oversupply would weigh on the U.S market while trade disputes and slowing global economic growth would dampen demand for oil. U.S crude declined for the seventh consecutive week, and global benchmark Brent was dropped for a third week. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures (WTI) rose 45 cents, or 0.7 percent, to $65.91, after touching a session high of $66.39. For the week, Brent was down 1.4 percent, and U.S crude fell 2.6 percent. Falling prices have weighed on funds with oil exposure. Money managers cut their net long U.S crude futures and options positions to the lowest in nearly two months in the week to Aug. 14, the U.S Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said. U.S government data this week showed a large buildup in crude inventories, with production also increased. Investors remain cautious as Wednesday’s surprise gain in U.S. stockpiles remained fresh in their minds.

 

 

Precious and Base Metals

Gold recovered some ground on Friday as a weakening U.S Dollar relieved pressure on prices, but the precious metal remained near 19-month lows and looked poised for its biggest weekly drop since May 2017. Spot gold added 0.31 percent to $1,177.21 ounce but was down 2.7 percent this week in its sixth consecutive weekly loss. On Thursday, it touched $1,159.96, the lowest since January 2017. U.S. gold futures for December delivery settled up 20 cents, or 0.02 percent, at $1,184.20 per ounce. The markets are much oversold and the dollar is overbought. From a 13-month high on Wednesday against a basket of six major currencies, the dollar has weakened against the currencies of key gold markets, the eurozone and China, helping gold regain its footing.  I expect the dollar to peak in the coming weeks … Gold should bottom out here. Gold has tumbled 14 percent from its April high as a rally in the greenback made dollar-priced bullion more expensive for buyers using other currencies. Investors seeking a safe place to store assets amid trade disputes and a Turkish currency crisis have preferred the dollar to gold, undermining the reputation of bullion as a safe haven. But news of planned U.S.-China trade talks and a partial recovery of Turkey’s lira have steadied investors’ nerves slightly. Bets on lower prices on the Comex exchange continue to build and now outweigh bets on higher prices by the largest quantity ever recorded. Meanwhile, silver gained 0.3 percent to $14.66 an ounce, but was down more than 4 percent on the week, the biggest weekly loss since February. On Thursday it touched its lowest since February 2016. Platinum increased 0.2 percent to $778.40 an ounce and was set for its biggest weekly drop since November 2015 of about 6 percent. It hit a 10-year low on Thursday. Palladium gained 1.1 percent to $898.90 per ounce but was down 1.4 percent this week having struck a one-year low.

 

 

Traditional Agriculture

Wheat futures jumped to their highest prices in more than a week on Friday on concerns that top-exporter Russia may curb grain exports. Russia will consider restricting 2018-19 shipments once they reach 30 million tonnes, following a request from the meat-producing region.

 

 

Futures Settlement Price Friday, August 17, 2018
Instrument Contract Open High Low Settlement Net Change
DJIA DJM18 25575 25729 25504 25678 86
S & P 500 SPM18 2843.25 2857 2835 2852.75 7.75
NASDAQ 100 NDM18 7382 7406.5 7321.5 7388.25 -2
Hang Seng HSH18 27210 27328 27001 27141 103
Nikkei 225 NKH18 22250 22325 22220 22270 120
FTSE 100 FTH18 7550 7572.5 7504 7555 17.5
Gold GCJ18 1180.4 1187.1 1178.5 1184.4 3.7
Silver SIK18 1462.5 1474 1456.5 1464.5 2
Copper HGK18 260.55 263.85 259.85 263.35 2.6
Crude Oil CLK18 65.43 66.35 65.27 66.01 0.58
Wheat WK18 541.75 562.5 534.75 559.75 18.5
Soybeans SK18 885.75 886.25 870.5 883.25 -2
Corn CK18 364.5 367.5 361.5 365 0

 

 

Daily Swings  (The Pivot Levels)
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
DJM18 25320 25412 25545 25637 25770 25862 25995
SPM18 2817.50 2826.25 2839.50 2848.25 2861.50 2870.25 2883.50
NDM18 7252.67 7287.08 7337.67 7372.08 7422.67 7457.08 7507.67
HSH18 26658 26830 26985 27157 27312 27484 27639
NKH18 22113 22167 22218 22272 22323 22377 22428
FTH18 7446.67 7475.33 7515.17 7543.83 7583.67 7612.33 7652.17
GCJ18 1170.97 1174.73 1179.57 1183.33 1188.17 1191.93 1196.77
SIK18 1438.50 1447.50 1456.00 1465.00 1473.50 1482.50 1491.00
HGK18 256.85 258.35 260.85 262.35 264.85 266.35 268.85
CLK18 64.32 64.80 65.40 65.88 66.48 66.96 67.56
WK18 514.42 524.58 542.17 552.33 569.92 580.08 597.67
SK18 858.00 864.25 873.75 880.00 889.50 895.75 905.25
CK18 355.83 358.67 361.83 364.67 367.83 370.67 373.83

 

 

 Source: – News & Quotes (Courtesy:  Reuters)                                                                    

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

 

 

 

 

20 Ago 2018

FOREX Newsletter

FOREX Newsletter

August 20, 2018

 

  Pulse of the Market

·      Dollar fell against the major currencies following softer than expected U.S consumer confidence

·      Slightly weaker Eurozone trade and current account data had very little impact on the Euro

·      Of all the major currencies, Sterling experienced the weakest recovery

·      Canadian Dollar benefitted from stronger than expected consumer price growth

  

The second full week in August was a good one for the U.S Dollar. The greenback extended its gains against most of the major currencies but the rally is slowing as investors cover their shorts in EUR/USD, AUD/USD and other major currencies. Softer than expected U.S consumer confidence helped to fuel their recoveries but the prospect of 2 relatively quiet data weeks and the potential for a disruptive trade meeting between the U.S. and China also encouraged investors to reduce their short positions. The most important event risk next week will be the U.S. and China’s trade talks on August 21 and 22. If the talks go well, risk appetite will improve allowing deeply oversold currencies like the Australian dollar to recover. However if the U.S. and China continue to bump heads, we could see renewed losses for euro, sterling and Aussie along with gains for the U.S Dollar. U.S fundamentals are still sound and next week’s FOMC minutes will remind us that the Fed is on course to raise rates in September. So at most we expect the pullback in USD/JPY to take the pair to 109.90 or 110. After hitting a low of 1.13 on Wednesday, EUR/USD ended the week near 1.14. Like the U.S., slightly weaker Eurozone trade and current account data had very little impact on the currency. Eurozone PMIs are due for release in the week ahead and of all the economic reports on the calendar, these are the most important because previously, we’ve seen very little sign of trade tensions impacting the Eurozone economy but if the August numbers show a slowdown, euro will resume its slide. If the data shows that manufacturing and service sector activity continued to expand at a faster pace, EUR/USD could extend its gains to 1.15. Of all the major currencies, Sterling experienced the weakest recovery. With short positions at their highest level since May 2017, GBP/USD was at the greatest risk of a short covering rally. Consumer spending rose 3 times more than expected in July, year over year CPI growth accelerated to 2.5%, well above the central bank’s 2% target and the unemployment rate dropped to its lowest level in 43 years. There was a slowdown in wage growth and zero price growth on a month to month basis, but the improvements should have overshadowed the deterioration. Yet it did not, which shows how strong the selling pressure really is. The problem is that the risk of a no-deal Brexit is growing but taking a look at the GBP/USD daily chart – higher highs and higher lows suggest that a stronger recovery is brewing. If it happens, it would be driven by Brexit headlines or a deeper pullback in the U.S Dollar because there are no major UK economic reports for the rest of the month. All three of the commodity currencies traded higher today with the Canadian leading the gains.

 

 

Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
06:00 German Producer Price Index (YoY) (JUL) Low     3.0%
07:00 Japan Convenience Store Sales (YoY) (JUL) Low     1.1%
08:00 Switzerland Total Sight Deposits CHF (AUG 17) Low      
09:00 Euro-Zone Construction Output w.d.a. (YoY) (JUN) Low     1.8%
15:00 U.S Fed’s Bostic Speaks on U.S. Economic Outlook in Tennessee Low      
22:45 New Zealand Net Migration s.a. (JUL) Low     4840
23:30 ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Index (AUG 19) Low      

 

Euro

The single currency traded better against the U.S. Dollar on Friday. The single currency continues to be supported by the announcement of renewed trade talks between the United States and China later this month. Considering the limited impact on European banks, the recent sell-off in the Euro appears to have been overdone. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1365 and a high of 1.1443 before closing the day around 1.1441 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen pair was under pressure last week on trade tensions and on revelations the Bank of Japan is under pressure to move away from its accommodative policy. Early in the week, the Yen was supported by solid domestic data. Late in the week, geopolitical tensions sparked a flight-to-safety rally into the Japanese Yen. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 110.29 and a high of 111.03 before closing the day around 110.54 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound struggled during the last week, as we reached down to the next support level. People are starting to price in the idea of a “no deal Brexit”, so things are becoming much more negative. At this point, the trade of the century might be buying the British pound at low levels, but clearly you need a longer-term signal to start doing that. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.2695 and a high of 1.2752 before closing the day at 1.2752 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar strengthened against its U.S counterpart on Friday after data showed a surge in domestic inflation triggered increased bets on another Bank of Canada interest rate hike as soon as September. Canada’s annual inflation rate surged to 3.0 per cent in July, its highest in nearly seven years, versus 2.5 per cent the previous month. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.3049 and a high of 1.3167 before closing the day at 1.3062 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar broke sharply last week amid expectations that domestic interest rates would remain at historical lows longer than expected and rising geopolitical turmoil that dampened demand for higher-yielding currencies. The Australian Dollar weakened as the central bank showed no intention of raising rates over the near future. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7250 and a high of 0.7317 before closing the day at 0.7315 in the New York session.

 

 

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is issuing a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 34 and lies below the neutral zone. In general, the pair has gained 0.26%.

 

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bullish tone and MACD is indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 25 reading and lies below the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.01%.

 

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 40 reading and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.46%.

  

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 60 and lies above the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has gained 0.29%.

  

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish stance and MACD is also indicating a bearish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 30 and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.19%.

 

Appendix

  

FOREX Closing Prices for August 17, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.1375 1.14435 1.1365 1.14414 0.0066
USD/JPY 110.867 111.033 110.296 110.54 -0.3420
GBP/USD 1.27109 1.2752 1.26959 1.2752 0.0039
USD/CHF 0.99665 0.9976 0.9931 0.99558 -0.0010
USD/CAD 1.31553 1.31672 1.30497 1.30621 -0.0092
EUR/JPY 126.127 126.584 125.555 126.461 0.3220
GBP/JPY 140.985 141.143 140.202 140.957 -0.0160
CHF/JPY 111.206 111.29 110.787 111.054 -0.1620
AUD/JPY 80.468 80.938 80.071 80.856 0.3710
EUR/GBP 0.89465 0.89759 0.8934 0.89726 0.0026
EUR/CHF 1.13385 1.13921 1.13277 1.13899 0.0051
GBP/CHF 1.26656 1.26992 1.26485 1.26954 0.0023

  

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1311 1.1338 1.1390 1.1417 1.1468 1.1495 1.1547
USD/JPY 109.48 109.89 110.21 110.62 110.95 111.36 111.69
GBP/USD 1.2659 1.2677 1.2715 1.2733 1.2771 1.2789 1.2827
USD/CHF 0.9888 0.9909 0.9933 0.9954 0.9978 0.9999 1.0023
USD/CAD 1.2901 1.2976 1.3019 1.3093 1.3136 1.3211 1.3254
EUR/JPY 124.79 125.17 125.82 126.20 126.85 127.23 127.87
GBP/JPY 139.45 139.83 140.39 140.77 141.33 141.71 142.27
CHF/JPY 110.29 110.54 110.80 111.04 111.30 111.55 111.80
AUD/JPY 79.44 79.75 80.31 80.62 81.17 81.49 82.04
EUR/GBP 0.8904 0.8919 0.8946 0.8961 0.8988 0.9003 0.9030
EUR/CHF 1.1283 1.1306 1.1348 1.1370 1.1412 1.1434 1.1477
GBP/CHF 1.2612 1.2630 1.2663 1.2681 1.2714 1.2732 1.2764

 

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

17 Ago 2018

Daily Market View

       

Daily Market View

Friday, August 17, 2018
          U.S Stock Market

 

DJIA S & P 500 NASDAQ
25292 2841.00 7458.00
+1.61% +0.82% +0.45%

U.S stocks rose in a broad-based rally yesterday, helped by robust earnings from Wal-Mart and Cisco and easing trade worries after China and the United States said they would hold talks later this month. Wal-Mart shares surged 9.5 percent, the most on the S&P 500, after the retailer said U.S comparable sales grew the most in a decade and posted strong e-commerce sales. The S&P retailers’ index gained 0.63 percent. All of the 11 major S&P sectors were higher, with technology stocks up 0.79 percent. Cisco rose 4.6 percent after posting quarterly results and first-quarter sales forecast that topped Wall Street expectations. Second-quarter earnings have been stronger than expected, with 79.3 percent of the 463 S&P 500 that have reported so far beating analyst expectations. Department store chains were largely sitting out the rally, stung by Macy’s warning on margins on Wednesday and JC Penney’s weak results and lowered forecast.

 

 

Major Economic Releases for Today
Period Event GMT Forecast Previous

        jul

Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index Core (YoY) 09:00 1.1% 1.1%

jul

Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (YoY) 09:00 2.1% 2.0%

jul

Canada Consumer Price Index (YoY) 12:30 2.5% 2.5%

jul

U.S Leading Index 14:00 0.4% 0.5%

aug

U.S U. of Mich. Sentiment 14:00 98 97.9

aug

U.S U. of Mich. Current Conditions 14:00   114.4

aug

U.S U. of Mich. Expectations 14:00   87.3

aug

U.S U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation 14:00   2.9%

aug

Baker Hughes U.S Rig Count 17:00    
Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.58%. The best performers of the session on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were Walmart Inc., which rose 9.33% or 8.42 points to trade at 98.64 at the close. Meanwhile, Boeing Co added 4.28% or 14.21 points to end at 345.97 and Caterpillar Inc was up 3.23% or 4.26 points to 136.28 in late trade. The worst performers of the session were Intel Corporation, which fell 0.61% or 0.29 points to trade at 47.17 at the close. Walt Disney Company declined 0.31% or 0.35 points to end at 112.50 and Microsoft Corporation was down 0.02% or 0.02 points to 107.64.

 

NASDAQ 100

The tech heavy NASDAQ index added 0.42%. The top performers on the NASDAQ Composite were JMU Ltd which rose 46.83% to 1.850, Sphere 3D Corp which was up 34.38% to settle at 0.311 and SAExploration Holdings Inc. which gained 28.89% to close at 0.580. The worst performers were Pain Therapeutics Inc. which was down 47.45% to 1.030 in late trade, Helios and Matheson Analytics Inc. which lost 37.50% to settle at 0.030 and ParkerVision Inc. which was down 32.11% to 0.2600 at the close.

Oil

Oil rose slightly as global markets steadied yesterday, recovering some of the previous day’s 2 percent slide, though a weakening outlook for crude demand kept prices in check. The oil market slid on Wednesday as data showing a large build in U.S. inventories fed concern about the fuel demand outlook, while crude was also pressured by broader selling of industrial commodities such as copper. China and the United States have implemented several rounds of tariffs and threatened further duties on exports worth hundreds of billions of dollars, which could knock global economic growth. The crisis gripping the Turkish lira has rattled emerging markets and reverberated across equities, bonds and raw materials. On the supply front, U.S data on Wednesday showed crude output rose by 100,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 10.9 million bpd in the week ending Aug. 10. Crude inventories increased by 6.8 million barrels, representing the largest weekly rise since March last year.

 

 

Precious and Base Metals

Gold prices bounced from 19-month lows yesterday, as the U.S Dollar slipped on news that China and the United States will hold trade talks this month, although sentiment remained negative. Gold futures settled slightly down as the U.S Dollar came off its lows later in the trading session, yet remained negative. Spot gold gained 0.3 percent at $1,177.80 an ounce, from an earlier low of $1,159.96, its weakest since January last year. U.S gold futures for December delivery settled down $1, or 0.1 percent, at $1,184 per ounce. The lower dollar index is helping gold and the fact that the Chinese sent a delegation over. There was heavy gold selling out of China last night. Once the selling was done, a short-covering rally ensued. The meeting between a Chinese delegation and U.S representative’s offers hope for progress in resolving the trade conflict that has unnerved financial and commodity markets in recent weeks. Political and economic uncertainty has seen investors opt for the safety of U.S. Treasuries and the U.S. currency, which when it rises makes dollar-denominated gold more expensive for holders of other currencies, potentially subduing demand. The underlying narratives of a strong dollar and relatively high U.S. interest rates still seem to be the predominant headwinds for gold. Higher interest rates raise the cost of holding gold, which earns nothing and needs money to store and insure. Meanwhile, silver gained 1.7 percent at $14.67 an ounce after earlier hitting the lowest since February 2016 at $14.30. Palladium added 6 percent at $893.30 an ounce, earlier hitting a more than 13-month low at $832. Platinum climbed 2.6 percent at $782.98 an ounce, after earlier sinking to its lowest since October 2008 at $751.25. A lower rand cuts cost for South African miners when expressed in dollars, which means they can keep producing and delaying the process of rebalancing the market.

 

 

Traditional Agricultures

Wheat and corn firm yesterday on soy rally and easing dollar. Soybean futures rebounded sharply yesterday as news that Beijing and Washington will hold fresh trade talks raised hopes that U.S soybean sales to top importer China will revive after being stalled by a tariff dispute.

 

 

Futures Settlement Price Thursday, August 16, 2018
Instrument Contract Open High Low Settlement Net Change
DJIA DJM18 25197 25605 25144 25592 395
S & P 500 SPM18 2822 2851.5 2817.25 2845 22.75
NASDAQ 100 NDM18 7378.5 7433.75 7363 7390.25 14.75
Hang Seng HSH18 26805 27360 26786 27038 -196
Nikkei 225 NKH18 22000 22225 21860 22150 -45
FTSE 100 FTH18 7514.5 7565 7496 7537.5 51.5
Gold GCJ18 1182.3 1188.8 1166.9 1180.7 -1.3
Silver SIK18 1443.5 1481.5 1430 1462.5 18.5
Copper HGK18 258.35 264.25 256.35 260.75 1.85
Crude Oil CLK18 64.9 65.48 64.39 65.43 0.46
Wheat WK18 531.25 547.25 530.5 541.25 8.25
Soybeans SK18 858.75 887.75 854.25 885.25 27.25
Corn CK18 360.75 367 360.25 365 2.75

 

 

Daily Swings  (The Pivot Levels)
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
DJM18 24828 24986 25289 25447 25750 25908 26211
SPM18 2790.08 2803.67 2824.33 2837.92 2858.58 2872.17 2892.83
NDM18 7286.83 7324.92 7357.58 7395.67 7428.33 7466.42 7499.08
HSH18 26189 26487 26763 27061 27337 27635 27911
NKH18 21567 21713 21932 22078 22297 22443 22662
FTH18 7431.67 7463.83 7500.67 7532.83 7569.67 7601.83 7638.67
GCJ18 1146.90 1156.90 1168.80 1178.80 1190.70 1200.70 1212.60
SIK18 1383.00 1406.50 1434.50 1458.00 1486.00 1509.50 1537.50
HGK18 248.75 252.55 256.65 260.45 264.55 268.35 272.45
CLK18 63.63 64.01 64.72 65.10 65.81 66.19 66.90
WK18 515.33 522.92 532.08 539.67 548.83 556.42 565.58
SK18 830.25 842.25 863.75 875.75 897.25 909.25 930.75
CK18 354.42 357.33 361.17 364.08 367.92 370.83 374.67

 

 

 Source: – News & Quotes (Courtesy:  Reuters)                                                                    

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

 

 

 

 

17 Ago 2018

FOREX Newsletter

       

 FOREX Newsletter

 August 17, 2018
 

 

    Pulse of the Market

·      Turkey secured a lifeline from Qatar and their steps to curb Lira selling are working

·      U.S data fell short of expectations but the impact was limited

·      Data had a very little impact on the Euro with the Eurozone’s trade balance declining slightly

·      Sterling seems very weak and had a very tough time rallying despite very good data

 

All of the major currencies traded higher as improved risk appetite drove traders back into high beta currencies. U.S Chief Economic Adviser Larry Kudlow confirmed that the trade talks with China will resume next week while U.S trade negotiator Lighthizer said he’s hopeful that there will be a breakthrough on NAFTA in the next few days. U.S data fell short of expectations but the impact was limited by the fact that these second-tier reports won’t affect Fed policy. President Trump also seems to have made a U-turn on Dollar policy. Demand for U.S Dollars is still very strong, which explains why Japanese Yen crosses performed particularly well yesterday. The Euro is still vulnerable to additional losses, having rejected a move above 1.14. Turkey is not out of the woods especially after Treasury Secretary Mnuchin threw out threats of more sanctions if the American pastor is not released. But investors are worried about Italy, who saw its markets go on a rollercoaster ride on the back of Turkey’s troubles. The Eurozone’s current account balance and revisions to July CPI data are due today and unless there is a big change, the impact should be limited as well. Sterling, on the other hand, is very weak. Unlike some other major currencies, it had a very tough time rallying despite very good data. Retail sales rose 0.7% in the month of July, 3 times more than anticipated. Excluding auto fuel, consumer spending growth was even stronger. This report should have sent GBP/USD sharply higher and while it did trigger a 30 pip knee-jerk rally, the pair nose-dived just as quickly. The selling pressure in the pound is very strong and there seem to be no signs of let up even though short positions are at their highest level since May 2017. As a result, the risk of a move down to 1.26 is significant. Along the same lines, EUR/GBP could revisit 90 cents. The Australian and New Zealand dollars extended their gains today while the Canadian dollar remained under pressure. After selling off aggressively this month, we believe AUD/USD has found a bottom. It is too early to say whether this will be a short or long-term bottom but either way, we see further gains ahead for the pair. Australia reported mixed labor market data. Job losses were reported but the market shrugged off the headline miss in favor of fulltime job growth and the best unemployment rate in 6 years. The Canadian Dollar, on the other hand, extended its losses ahead of today’s CPI report. While Canadian data has been pretty good, today’s report could surprise to the downside because price pressures eased in the manufacturing sector according to IVEY PMI.

 

 

Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
09:00 Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index Core (YoY) (JUL) Medium   1.1% 1.1%
09:00 Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JUL) Medium   2.1% 2.0%
12:30 Canada Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JUL) High   2.5% 2.5%
14:00 U.S Leading Index (JUL) Medium   0.4% 0.5%
14:00 U.S U. of Mich. Sentiment (AUG) High   98 97.9
14:00 U.S U. of Mich. Current Conditions (AUG) Low     114.4
14:00 U.S U. of Mich. Expectations (AUG) Low     87.3
17:00 Baker Hughes U.S Rig Count (AUG 17) Medium      

 

Euro

The single currency gained slightly in yesterday’s session. On the release front, the German Wholesale Price Index dropped to 0.0%, short of the estimate of 0.5%. The Eurozone trade surplus narrowed to EUR 16.7 billion, missing the estimate of EUR 17.0 billion. The euro has endured a rough August, losing 2.7 percent in that time. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1334 and a high of 1.1407 before closing the day around 1.1375 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen had an uneventful week and that trend continued yesterday. On the release front, Japan’s trade surplus with the US dropped 22.1% in July. It was a busy day for U.S indicators. Building Permits improved to 1.31 million, matching the estimate. Housing starts remained at 1.17 million, short of the estimate of 1.27 million. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 110.44 and a high of 111.10 before closing the day around 110.88 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound advanced against rivals yesterday as traders responded to official data showing spending on the high street rising faster than was expected during July, drawing a line under the surprise slump seen back in June. UK retail sales rose by 0.4% during July, up from the -0.5% contraction seen back in June  Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.2683 and a high of 1.2752 before closing the day at 1.2713 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar was nearly unchanged against its U.S counterpart yesterday after a planned oil pipeline from Alberta to Nebraska met with a setback, offsetting domestic data that showed a rise in factory sales. Canadian factory sales grew by 1.1 per cent in June from May, thanks largely to a rebound in petroleum and coal products. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.3111 and a high of 1.3172 before closing the day at 1.3154 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar correlation with the tumbling offshore Yuan reached the strongest on record in August as investors entwine the two nations’ fortunes. It’s a clear sign of Australia’s vulnerability to a slowdown in China that’s being exacerbated by U.S tariffs. Australia’s currency is under fire as the economy caps a 27th recession-free year amid accelerating growth. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7213 and a high of 0.7284 before closing the day at 0.7259 in the New York session.

 

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is also issuing a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 30 and lies below the neutral zone. In general, the pair has gained 0.38%.

 

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish tone and MACD is also indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 25 reading and lies below the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has gained 0.24%.

 

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is also indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 34 reading and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.37%.

 

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bearish tone and MACD is issuing a bullish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 55 and lies above the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has gained 0.11%.

  

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish stance and MACD is also indicating a bearish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 27 and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.43%.

 

 

Appendix

 

FOREX Closing Prices for August 16, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.13446 1.14077 1.13344 1.13755 0.0029
USD/JPY 110.693 111.104 110.44 110.882 0.1270
GBP/USD 1.26966 1.27522 1.26836 1.27132 0.0015
USD/CHF 0.99374 0.99728 0.99914 0.99662 0.0029
USD/CAD 1.31397 1.31722 1.31116 1.31544 0.0011
EUR/JPY 125.602 126.467 125.26 126.139 0.4750
GBP/JPY 140.563 141.302 140.184 140.973 0.3440
CHF/JPY 111.361 111.783 111.166 111.216 -0.2650
AUD/JPY 80.11 80.797 79.806 80.485 0.2960
EUR/GBP 0.89337 0.89581 0.8932 0.89464 0.0010
EUR/CHF 1.1274 1.13454 1.12615 1.13384 0.0064
GBP/CHF 1.26182 1.26755 1.26024 1.26719 0.0054

 

 

 

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1264 1.1299 1.1337 1.1373 1.1411 1.1446 1.1484
USD/JPY 109.85 110.14 110.51 110.81 111.18 111.47 111.84
GBP/USD 1.2612 1.2648 1.2680 1.2716 1.2749 1.2785 1.2818
USD/CHF 0.9999 0.9995 0.9981 0.9977 0.9962 0.9958 0.9944
USD/CAD 1.3059 1.3085 1.3120 1.3146 1.3181 1.3207 1.3241
EUR/JPY 124.24 124.75 125.44 125.96 126.65 127.16 127.86
GBP/JPY 139.22 139.70 140.34 140.82 141.46 141.94 142.57
CHF/JPY 110.38 110.77 110.99 111.39 111.61 112.01 112.23
AUD/JPY 78.94 79.37 79.93 80.36 80.92 81.35 81.91
EUR/GBP 0.8907 0.8919 0.8933 0.8946 0.8959 0.8972 0.8985
EUR/CHF 1.1201 1.1231 1.1285 1.1315 1.1369 1.1399 1.1453
GBP/CHF 1.2551 1.2577 1.2624 1.2650 1.2697 1.2723 1.2771

 

 

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

 

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

16 Ago 2018

Daily Market View

   

Daily Market View

Thursday, August 16, 2018
          U.S Stock Market

 

DJIA S & P 500 NASDAQ
25197 2822.25 7375.50
-0.54% -0.81% -1.27%

U.S stock index futures dropped yesterday, with investors weighing the impact of Turkey’s currency crisis as well as the escalating tariff tensions between the United States and its trading partners. While the lira continues to pull back from record lows against the dollar, Turkey doubled tariffs on some U.S imports including alcohol, cars and tobacco in retaliation to U.S moves. Meanwhile, Beijing has lodged a complaint to the World Trade Organization to help determine the legality of U.S. tariff and subsidy policies. Adding to the downbeat sentiment was a slide in oil prices due to a gloomier global economic outlook and a report of rising U.S. crude inventories, even as U.S sanctions on Tehran threatened to curb Iranian crude oil supplies. Shares of oil producers Exxon and Chevron, both members of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, slipped. Retail stock will continue to be in focus as a report is expected to show U.S. retail sales rose 0.1 percent in July, lower than a 0.5 percent increase in June.

 

 

Major Economic Releases for Today
Period Event GMT Forecast Previous

        jul

Australia Employment Change 01:30 15.0k 50.9k

jul

Australia Unemployment Rate 01:30 5.4% 5.4%

jul

U.K Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel (YoY) 08:30 2.7% 3.0%

jun

Euro-Zone Trade Balance (euros) 09:00   16.5b

aug

U.S Initial Jobless Claims 12:30 215k  

aug

U.S Continuing Claims 12:30 1741k  

jul

U.S Housing Starts (MoM) 12:30 7.4% -12.3%

jul

U.S Building Permits (MoM) 12:30 1.4% -2.2%

aug

U.S Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook 12:30 22 25.7
Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.54% yesterday. The best performers of the session on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were Merck & Company Inc., which rose 1.35% or 0.90 points to trade at 67.36 at the close. Meanwhile, Procter & Gamble Company added 1.21% or 0.98 points to end at 82.29 and Pfizer Inc. was up 1.11% or 0.45 points to 41.16 in late trade. The worst performers of the session were Chevron Corp, which fell 3.79% or 4.64 points to trade at 117.94 at the close. Boeing Co declined 2.18% or 7.40 points to end at 331.74 and Caterpillar Inc. was down 2.15% or 2.90 points to 132.02.

 

NASDAQ 100

The tech heavy NASDAQ index fell 1.23% yesterday. The top performers on the NASDAQ Composite were Pain Therapeutics Inc. which rose 76.58% to 1.960, GWG Holdings Inc. which was up 36.54% to settle at 10.09 and Citius Pharmaceuticals Inc. which gained 24.06% to close at 1.650. The worst performers were Yogaworks Inc. which was down 41.40% to 1.09 in late trade, ParkerVision Inc. which lost 33.97% to settle at 0.3830 and ReShape Lifesciences Inc. which was down 33.41% to 0.0815 at the close.

Oil

Oil prices plunged in yesterday’s trading session after government data showed a big, unexpected jump in stockpiles of U.S crude, compounding pressure as the outlook for global economic growth darkened and the stock market slumped. U.S light crude ended Wednesday’s session down $2.03 a barrel, or 3 percent, at $65.01, its lowest closing prices since June 6. The contract hit an eight-week intraday low at $64.51. U.S commercial crude inventories rose by 6.8 million barrels in the week through Aug. 10, the Energy Information Administration reported. Analysts in a Reuters’ poll had forecast stockpiles would fall by 2.5 million barrels. The jump in stocks occurred as the nation’s crude imports surged by 1 million barrels a day, while its exports fell by more than 250,000 bpd. That offset record activity at American refineries, which ran at 98 percent capacity. Stocks at the closely watched U.S delivery hub at Cushing, Oklahoma rose by 1.6 million barrels.

 

 

Precious and Base Metals

Gold prices slipped to their lowest since January 2017 early yesterday, pressured as the U.S. dollar clung to its highest in 13 months. Spot gold was down 0.1 percent at $1,192.11 an ounce, after hitting its lowest since late January 2017 at $1,190.77. U.S gold futures were down 0.1 percent at $1,199.1 an ounce. Asian stocks sagged on Wednesday, failing to track Wall Street’s gains and with the dollar near a 13-month peak as concerns about Turkey’s financial crisis weighed on investor appetite, despite the lira’s move away from an all-time low. President Tayyip Erdogan said on Tuesday that Turkey would boycott electronic products from the United States, retaliating in a row with Washington that has helped drive the lira to record lows. U.S import prices were unchanged in July as a surge in the cost of fuels was offset by weak prices elsewhere; suggesting that a strong dollar was keeping imported inflation in check. Eurozone growth was better than expected in the second quarter, flash estimates showed on Tuesday, in a sign that the negative effects of global trade tensions might be seen only later in the year. The Chinese government is expediting plans to invest billions of dollars in infrastructure projects as its economy shows signs of cooling further, with investment growth slowing to a record low and consumers turning more cautious. SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, said its holdings fell 1.01 percent to 776.65 tonnes on Tuesday from 784.60 tonnes on Monday. South Africa’s Gold Fields said on Tuesday it plans to cut costs and 1,100 jobs at its struggling South Deep mine, sending its shares down more than 12 percent. Copper prices hit their lowest levels in 13 months yesterday and entered a bear market, potentially signaling an economic slowdown is happening around the world. Earlier this week, China reported weaker-than-expected industrial production and retail sales growth, raising worries that the second-largest economy in the world could be headed for a slowdown.

 

 

Traditional Agriculture

Soybeans, wheat, and corn fell in yesterday’s trading session on the back of a stronger Dollar and worries about U.S export prospects as bumper crops in the United States loom.

 

 

 

Futures Settlement Price Wednesday, August 15, 2018
Instrument Contract Open High Low Settlement Net Change
DJIA DJM18 25308 25314 24952 25197 -102
S & P 500 SPM18 2841.75 2842.75 2803 2822.25 -19.25
NASDAQ 100 NDM18 7460.25 7464.25 7316.75 7375.5 -83.5
Hang Seng HSH18 27666 27673 27146 27234 -407
Nikkei 225 NKH18 22325 22350 22080 22195 -135
FTSE 100 FTH18 7604.5 7612.5 7449.5 7486 -131.5
Gold GCJ18 1201.2 1201.6 1179.8 1182 -19.4
Silver SIK18 1505 1506 1433.5 1444 -63
Copper HGK18 268.4 268.85 255.2 258.9 -10
Crude Oil CLK18 66.58 66.86 64.47 64.97 -1.74
Wheat WK18 541.5 542.25 528 533 -9.25
Soybeans SK18 870.25 872 855.75 858 -11
Corn CK18 362 363 358.5 362.25 -0.5

 

Daily Swings  (The Pivot Levels)
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
DJM18 24633 24792 24995 25154 25357 25516 25719
SPM18 2762.83 2782.92 2802.58 2822.67 2842.33 2862.42 2882.08
NDM18 7159.25 7238.00 7306.75 7385.50 7454.25 7533.00 7601.75
HSH18 26502 26824 27029 27351 27556 27878 28083
NKH18 21797 21938 22067 22208 22337 22478 22607
FTH18 7256.50 7353.00 7419.50 7516.00 7582.50 7679.00 7745.50
GCJ18 1152.20 1166.00 1174.00 1187.80 1195.80 1209.60 1217.60
SIK18 1343.83 1388.67 1416.33 1461.17 1488.83 1533.67 1561.33
HGK18 239.47 247.33 253.12 260.98 266.77 274.63 280.42
CLK18 61.62 63.04 64.01 65.43 66.40 67.82 68.79
WK18 512.33 520.17 526.58 534.42 540.83 548.67 555.08
SK18 835.58 845.67 851.83 861.92 868.08 878.17 884.33
CK18 355.00 356.75 359.50 361.25 364.00 365.75 368.50

 

 

 Source: – News & Quotes (Courtesy:  Reuters)                                                                    

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

 

 

 

 

16 Ago 2018

FOREX Newsletter

   

FOREX Newsletter

August 16, 2018
 

 

Pulse of the Market

·      U.S retail sales rose 0.5% last month, but June’s retail sales were revised downward

·      The Empire State manufacturing index rose 5.30 points in August to a reading of 25.60

·      Concerns over Turkey saw demand for the safe-haven yen and Swiss franc increase

·      The Canadian Dollar weakened against its U.S counterpart yesterday as oil prices fell

 

The U.S Dollar steadied against its rivals at 13-month highs yesterday, but gains were limited by rising demand for safe-haven yen on fears turmoil in Turkey could spill over into other markets. The U.S dollar index, which measures the greenback against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, rose by 0.05% to 96.60. The lira rose sharply against the dollar for the second-straight day as Turkey doubled tariffs on some U.S imports, including alcohol, cars and tobacco in retaliation for U.S moves. The rise in the lira did little to ease investor concerns as analysts warned that while Turkey may take measures to support the lira, the country’s economy would likely plunge into a recession. A recession is on the horizon in Turkey, but the depth of the recession depends on the measures taken. Lower growth, higher interest rates and on balance a weaker currency would still make it difficult for certain Turkish companies to fulfill their external debt obligations, but a national debt crisis would be avoided. Concerns over Turkey saw demand for the safe-haven yen and Swiss franc increase, keeping gains in the greenback in check. A duo of economic reports on retail sales and regional manufacturing pushed the dollar to an intraday high, but the greenback struggled to hold gains. The Commerce Department said on Wednesday that retail sales rose 0.5% last month, but June’s retail sales was revised downward. The retail sales control group — which has a larger impact on U.S GDP — rose 0.5%, beating expectations for a 0.4% rise. The Empire State manufacturing index rose 5.30 points in August to a reading of 25.60, the New York Federal Reserve said Wednesday. That was its highest reading in 10 months. Elsewhere, bargain hunters scooped up the euro as it plunged to one-year low intraday against the dollar. The Canadian Dollar weakened against its U.S counterpart yesterday as oil prices fell and a 13-month high for the greenback pressured emerging markets and global stocks. Resale’s of Canadian homes rose 1.9 percent in July from June, notching the third straight monthly rise but remaining below the highs seen in recent years, the Canadian Real Estate Association said.

 

 

 

Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
01:00 Australia Consumer Inflation Expectation (AUG) Medium     3.9%
01:30 Australia Employment Change (JUL) High   15.0k 50.9k
01:30 Australia Unemployment Rate (JUL) High   5.4% 5.4%
08:30 U.K Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel (YoY) (JUL) Medium   2.7% 3.0%
09:00 Euro-Zone Trade Balance s.a. (JUN) Low   16.5b 16.9b
12:30 Canada ADP Publishes July Payrolls Report Low      
12:30 Canada Manufacturing Sales (MoM) (JUN) Low   1.0% 1.4%
12:30 U.S Initial Jobless Claims (AUG 11) Medium   215k  
12:30 U.S Continuing Claims (AUG 4) Medium   1741k  
12:30 U.S Housing Starts (MoM) (JUL) Medium   7.4% -12.3%
12:30 U.S Building Permits (MoM) (JUL) Medium   1.4% -2.2%
12:30 U.S Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook (AUG) Medium   22 25.7
23:30 RBA Governor Semiannual Testimony High      

Euro

The single currency has fallen more than 5 percent in 2018, and analysts see the downward trend continuing even if the market turmoil in Turkey eases. As euro-area growth slows and rate differentials lead investors to unwind bullish euro positions from earlier in the year. The euro touched a 13-month low yesterday. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1299 and a high of 1.1353 before closing the day around 1.1347 in the New York session.

 

Yen

 

 

The Japanese Yen ended the session higher against the U.S Dollar. The currency is undervalued and especially sensitive to shifts in its central bank’s monetary policy – or hints of them – which suggests it may rise in the months ahead. The currency has been a popular go-to for investors fleeing the Turkish currency and emerging market crises. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 110.41 and a high of 111.41 before closing the day around 110.75 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound fell below $1.27 against the US dollar for the first time since June last year. Sterling – already weakened amid political turmoil over the government’s Brexit blueprint. The move was also attributed to the strength of the dollar. The drop against the dollar also comes on the back of weaker-than-forecast wage growth figures. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.2660 and a high of 1.2733 before closing the day at 1.2697 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar weakened against its U.S counterpart as oil prices fell and a 13-month high for the greenback pressured emerging markets and global stocks. The greenback rose as data showed U.S. retail sales grew more than forecast in July. The price of oil, one of Canada’s major exports, was pressured by data showing rising U.S. crude inventories. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.3048 and a high of 1.3172 before closing the day at 1.3143 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar fell yesterday after official data confirmed that wage and inflation pressures are still missing in action down under, while traders continue to shun the antipodean currency amid a testing geopolitical and global economic environment. Wage growth is a hot-button issue for the Australian Dollar. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7200 and a high of 0.7245 before closing the day at 0.7235 in the New York session.

 

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is also issuing a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 25 and lies below the neutral zone. In general, the pair has lost 0.35%.

  

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish tone and MACD is also indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 21 reading and lies below the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.57%.

  

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is also indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 30 reading and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.37%.

 

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bearish tone and MACD is issuing a bullish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 54 and lies above the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has gained 0.21%.

 

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish stance and MACD is also indicating a bearish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 18 and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.28%.

 

Appendix

  

FOREX Closing Prices for August 15, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.13427 1.13535 1.12996 1.1347 0.0001
USD/JPY 111.123 111.412 110.413 110.755 -0.4030
GBP/USD 1.27186 1.27336 1.266 1.26977 -0.0024
USD/CHF 0.99406 0.99807 0.99242 0.99367 -0.0006
USD/CAD 1.30605 1.31723 1.30482 1.31431 0.0083
EUR/JPY 126.061 126.348 124.88 125.664 -0.4450
GBP/JPY 141.346 141.745 139.869 140.629 -0.8070
CHF/JPY 111.763 111.917 110.939 111.481 -0.3340
AUD/JPY 80.424 80.541 79.671 80.189 -0.2960
EUR/GBP 0.89165 0.89373 0.88991 0.89368 0.0019
EUR/CHF 1.12762 1.13034 1.12412 1.12746 -0.0005
GBP/CHF 1.26441 1.26959 1.25896 1.26181 -0.0035

 

 

 

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1259 1.1279 1.1313 1.1333 1.1367 1.1387 1.1421
USD/JPY 109.31 109.86 110.31 110.86 111.31 111.86 112.31
GBP/USD 1.2587 1.2624 1.2661 1.2697 1.2734 1.2771 1.2808
USD/CHF 0.9857 0.9891 0.9914 0.9947 0.9970 1.0004 1.0027
USD/CAD 1.2946 1.2997 1.3070 1.3121 1.3194 1.3245 1.3318
EUR/JPY 123.45 124.16 124.91 125.63 126.38 127.10 127.85
GBP/JPY 137.87 138.87 139.75 140.75 141.63 142.62 143.50
CHF/JPY 110.00 110.47 110.97 111.45 111.95 112.42 112.93
AUD/JPY 78.86 79.26 79.73 80.13 80.60 81.00 81.47
EUR/GBP 0.8873 0.8886 0.8912 0.8924 0.8950 0.8963 0.8988
EUR/CHF 1.1181 1.1211 1.1243 1.1273 1.1305 1.1335 1.1367
GBP/CHF 1.2467 1.2528 1.2573 1.2635 1.2679 1.2741 1.2786

 

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

 

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