Analysts at Nomura offered a preview of the forthcoming key US data today.
“ADP private employment: Consistent with our forecast for the May employment report from the BLS, we expect ADP to report a 205k gain in May private payroll employment (Consensus: 190k).
Q1 GDP, second estimate: The first estimate of Q1 GDP came in at 2.3% q-o-q saar. Incoming data since then suggest the BEA will lower Q2 GDP growth to 2.1% q-o-q saar in its second release (Consensus: 2.3%). Annual revisions to manufacturers’ inventories by the Census Bureau lowered inventory buildup at factories in Q1. In addition, the advance release of the Quarterly Services Survey for Q1 suggests weaker-thanexpected consumer spending on services relative to the BEA’s assumptions, while business investment in intellectual properties may have been greater. Taken together, the net effect was likely negative.
Advance goods trade balance and inventories: The trade deficit narrowed in March as exports rose sharply and outpaced imports. Imports slowed in March, reverting gains in February. We think that a strong increase in goods exports in March likely reverted in April while goods imports rebounded, and we forecast a modest widening in the goods trade deficit to $69.8bn (Consensus: $71.0bn), from $68.3bn.
Fed Beige Book: The Beige Book prepared for the 12-13 June FOMC meeting is likely to show continued modest to moderate growth across the 12 districts. Incoming data indicate some pickup in consumer confidence during March and April, after disappointing readings in January and February. Moreover, while concerns about US trade policy regarding steel and aluminum tariffs will likely show up again in the June Beige Book, broader concerns about trade tensions with China may have abated somewhat. Tight labor markets and labor shortages likely persisted across most districts with price increases at a “moderate” pace, similar to April. Overall, the data for 2Q have so far been strong and we expect the June Beige Book to reflect that.”