After having witnessed a volatile session a day before, Bitcoin, the world’s dominant cryptocurrency, stalled its recent upmove just shy of $ 8200 mark. The spot is now in a consolidative mode so far this session, defending a minor bid on $ 8100 barrier.

The Asian rebound can be attributed to the news that J P Morgan is reportedly getting into the bitcoin futures trading. The Wall Street Journal report said citing a person familiar with the situation: “J.P. Morgan is considering whether to provide its clients access to CME’s new bitcoin product through its futures-brokerage unit.”

Bitcoin was sold-off in Asia on Tuesday and fell as low as $ 7790 on reports of a $ 31 million theft of another cryptocurrency Tether, which sparked concerns over the security of digital coins. The digital currency staged a solid comeback and rallied hard to refresh record highs at $ 8380 in the US last session before reversing sharply to just under $ 8000 mark on the back of profit-taking. At the time of writing, BTC/USD gains +0.62% to $ 8140 levels, looking to test $ 8100 once again. Bitcoin has had a stellar year, rising more than 730%.

Meanwhile, the second most traded digital currency is Ethereum, ETH/USD, outperforming its rival Bitcoin. Ethereum market capitalization sits at $ 35 billion and trades at $ 364, up +1.30% on the day, after having found solid support just ahead of $ 350.

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Analysts at TDS note that Australia’s Q3 construction work done surged 15.7%/qtr, driven by a significant 33% jump in engineering.

Key Quotes

“This jump was on the back of imported LNG plants and while the construction data reflects the value of the asset when delivered, the only part that gets reflected in GDP is the value of work done on that asset in the qtr. As a result the jump in engineering is not expected to add to GDP. Looking at the other components, housing construction was softer for the 3rd straight qtr, —0.2%.”

“Non-residential building construction rose 1% on the qtr, confirming strength in non-mining business investment, while public sector engineering was up 6%/qtr, consistent with the focus by state governments to focus on infrastructure. Overall today’s number has little impact on Q3 GDP.”

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In view of analysts at ANZ, after a strong run, the September quarter Retail Trade Survey of Australia looks set to provide a softer signal and they have pencilled in a 0.2% q/q fall in total sales volumes.

Key Quotes

“In many ways, a softer result just reflects a natural pull-back after Q2’s figures were boosted by tourist spending associated with the World Masters Games and British and Irish Lions rugby tour. In Q2, food and beverage services was the largest contributor to the increase (+4.2% q/q), with accommodation (+6.1% q/q) and liquor retailing (+7.8% q/q) also up strongly. However, we suspect there will also be some underlying softness as well. While the labour market is clearly still performing well, which should continue to support spending growth overall, the weaker housing market is likely to have had some impact.”

“Certainly, the underlying trend in recent ECT figures has been on the soft side. How the consumer fares against a cross current of reasonable income growth but soft housing market is arguably going to be one of the most important factors determining the strength of the broader economy over the next couple of years.”

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FX option expiries for Nov 22 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below.

EUR/USD: $1.1500-02(E1.2bn), $1.1650(E600mn), $1.1700(E688mn), $1.1750(E971mn), $1.1775(E357mn), $1.1800-05(E1.12bn), $1.1825-30(E1.18bn), $1.1845(E382mn), $1.1900(E1.57bn)

GBP/USD: $1.2900(Gbp492mn), $1.3250(Gbp279mn)

USD/JPY: Y112.00($1.4bn), Y112.70-80($585mn), Y113.00($680mn), Y113.15($309mn)

AUD/USD: $0.7600(A$555mn), $0.7730-40(A$1.2bn), $0.8080(A$1.53bn)

USD/CAD: Nov22 C$1.2545-50($996mn), C$1.2780($980mn)

EUR/GBP: Gbp0.8900(E387mn)

EUR/JPY: Y130.25(E400mn)

USD/CNY: Cny6.6160($636mn), Cny6.6200($540mn), Cny6.6500($1.02bn)

AUD/NZD: N$1.1220-25(A$396mn), N$1.1300(A$862mn)

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Following the strong Q2 outcome, analysts at TDS expect Australia’s Q3 sales volumes to be flat given weak credit card purchases in recent months. 

Key Quotes

“A flat outcome will boost the dovish camp, but after an exceptionally strong H1 should be seen as the consumers remaining resilient.  Mkt range unusually wide at –1.0% to +0.8% although most of us are clustered at zero.”

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Nikkei 225 index pares gains.
USD weakens in tandem with USTs
Headed for a test of 200-DMA at 111.51.
US data and FOMC minutes hold the key.

The USD/JPY pair came under renewed selling pressure over the last hour, as the USD selling picked-up pace across the board, with the market still weighing cautious remarks by the Fed Chair Yellen on the inflation outlook.

USD/JPY:  Risk-off seeps back?

The latest leg down in the spot can be also attributed to fresh demand seen in the Yen after the BOJ sources reported that the Japanese central is gradually dropping hints that it could scale back the stimulus earlier than expected.

Also, amid negative US rates and the Japanese stocks paring gains, the safe-haven flows for the Yen got a boost, knocking-off the major to fresh two-day lows of 112.16, with all eyes set on the next support of 111.88 en route 111.51 (200-DMA).

Meanwhile, the Nikkei 225 index eases to 22,550 points, still up +0.60% while the 10-year Treasury yields lose -0.22% to 2.356, keeping the USD index broadly subdued near 93.80 levels.

The pair now looks forward to the US data flow, with the key durable goods and FOMC minutes on the cards, which will provide fresh direction on the USD.

USD/JPY Technical View

Jim Langlands at FX Charts writes: “The short-term momentum indicators are still looking mildly positive, and on the topside resistance will again be seen at 112.70, ahead of 113.00, a break of which could see the dollar head back towards 113.15 and possibly on to 113.30. The daily momentum indicators are still pointing lower though and at some stage, we could yet see another run to levels below 112.00. Decent support lies in the 111.50/70 area where it might be worth trying buy some dollars if we ever see it down there.”

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Despite bouncing a little in October, the pace of monthly net migrant inflows continues to slow in New Zealand, led, in part, by a higher numbers of departures, points out Phil Borkin, Senior Economist at ANZ.

Key Quotes

“Increased departures are being driven by non-New Zealand and Australian citizens. We think this reflects a natural cycling effect, and points to an ongoing rolling over in net inflows – even ahead of possible further policy restrictions.”

“Seasonally adjusted visitor arrivals rose in the month, but the pace of underlying growth is far more modest than we’ve seen over recent years.” 

“Key Points

In seasonally adjusted terms, a net inflow of 5,580 migrants was recorded in October. This is up from September’s 2-year low of 5,220. The 12-month running total remains strong at just under 71,000, but in 3-month annualised terms, the net inflow has fallen to below 65k for the first time since mid-2015. This cooling is reinforced by the Statistics NZ trend measure, which shows a monthly net inflow of 5,400, also the lowest since mid-2015. 
The recent easing in net inflows has been driven by a combination of rising departures and fewer arrivals. Long-term arrivals did bounce a little in October (+3.7% m/m sa), but they are still down from recent highs. Long-term departures also rose, and in trend terms are at the highest level since late 2013.
Interestingly, the lift in departures has been led by departures of non-New Zealand and Australian citizens. We believe this reflects the natural cycling effect of the large numbers of immigrants who perhaps arrived a few years ago on work or student visas now choosing or having to leave.
Visitor arrivals rose 1.9% m/m sa (+3.9% y/y). One-off events have clouded the picture of late, but even with the bounce in October, the rate of growth in tourist arrivals is slowing from the double-digit annual pace seen over much of 2016. We suspect this largely reflects capacity issues, and we are not necessarily negative on the sector, especially with the recently lower NZD likely to boost overall spending.”

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