07 Dec 2018

FOREX Newsletter

FOREX Newsletter

December 07, 2018

 

Pulse of the Market

·      The U.S Dollar weakened against major peers yesterday as U.S Treasury yields tumbled

·      Market sentiment was dampened by disappointing ADP payrolls data and higher jobless claims

·      Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz said the economy was weaker than forecast

·      The Australian Dollar slipped for a third straight day on fears of renewed US-China trade tensions

The U.S Dollar was lower yesterday as the arrest of a Huawei executive spooked investors and disappointing jobs data dampened sentiment. The U.S Dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of six major currencies, fell 0.46% to 96.56. Meng Wanzhou, the chief financial officer at the Chinese smartphone company Huawei was arrested in Canada on an extradition request by the U.S, which had been investigating whether or not she violated sanctions against Iran. The arrest happened just one week after President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping agreed to a 90-day trade truce. Investors fear it could derail any potential trade talks between the two countries. Japanese Yen gained after the news as the Yen tends to benefit during geopolitical or financial stress as Japan is the world’s biggest creditor nation and there is an assumption that Japanese investors will repatriate funds should a crisis materialize. Market sentiment was also dampened by disappointing ADP payrolls data and higher than expected jobless claims. Data showed private employers hired fewer workers than expected in November, pointing to a moderation in the pace of job growth. The U.S trade deficit jumped to a 10-year high in October as soybean exports dropped further and imports of consumer goods rose to a record high, suggesting the Trump administration’s tariff-related measures to shrink the trade gap likely have been ineffective. Sterling was 0.42 percent higher on the day even as worry over how a British Parliament vote on Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit deal next week remained in focus. The Canadian dollar fell against its U.S counterpart to a nearly 18-month low, as Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz said the economy was weaker than forecast and predicted low oil prices would cut growth. Poloz, speaking a day after the central bank kept interest rates on hold, repeated that more tightening would be needed.

 

Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
00:00 Japan Labor Cash Earnings (YoY) (OCT) Medium   1.0% 1.1%
05:00 Japan Leading Index CI (OCT) Medium   104.9 104.3
07:00 German Industrial Production n.s.a. and w.d.a. (YoY) (OCT) Medium   2.1% 0.8%
09:30 U.K BoE/TNS Inflation Next 12 Mths (NOV) High     3.0%
10:00 Euro-Zone Government Expenditure (QoQ) (3Q) Medium   0.3% 0.4%
10:00 Euro-Zone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY) (3Q) Medium   1.7% 1.7%
13:30 Canada Unemployment Rate (NOV) High   5.8% 5.8%
13:30 Canada Net Change in Employment (NOV) High   10.0k 11.2k
13:30 U.S Change in Non-farm Payrolls (NOV) High   198k 250k
13:30 U.S Change in Private Payrolls (NOV) Medium   200k 246k
13:30 U.S Unemployment Rate (NOV) High   3.7% 3.7%
13:30 U.S Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (NOV) Medium   3.1% 3.1%
15:00 U.S U. of Mich. Sentiment (DEC) High   97 97.5
18:00 Baker Hughes U.S Rig Count (DEC 7) Medium     1076
20:00 U.S Consumer Credit (OCT) Medium   $15.000b $10.923b

Euro

The single currency gained yesterday against the U.S Dollar as the European Commission has adopted a recommendation to promote the wider use of the euro in international energy agreements and transactions. The aim is to strengthen the role of the single currency on the international financial system. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1319 and a high of 1.1411 before closing the day around 1.1376 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen pair weakened yesterday as U.S Treasury yields tumbled and traders scaled back expectations on the number of rate hikes the Federal Reserve would implement amid weakening economic data and heightened market volatility. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield hit a three-month trough of 2.845 percent. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 112.21 and a high of 113.18 before closing the day around 112.65 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound posted gains in yesterday’s session. There were no major indicators in the U.K. In the U.S, job employment numbers were soft. ADP nonfarm payrolls plunged to 179 thousand, well off the estimate of 196 thousand. This was the lowest level since May. Unemployment claims edged lower to 231 thousand. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.2697 and a high of 1.2808 before closing the day at 1.2780 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar fell against its U.S counterpart yesterday to a nearly 18-month low, as Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz said the economy was weaker than forecast and predicted low oil prices would cut growth. Poloz’s comments were likely to reinforce market expectations that the pace of future rate hikes will ease off.  Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.3352 and a high of 1.3442 before closing the day at 1.3380 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar slipped for a third straight session as fears of renewed US-China trade tensions spooked stock markets, while investors toyed with the idea of possible rate cuts at home. Australian two-year bond yields dived to their lowest in nine months at 1.93 per cent. Yesterday’s helping of domestic data did nothing to alter the mood Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7189 and a high of 0.7272 before closing the day at 0.7221 in the New York session.

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is issuing a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 45 and lies below the neutral zone. In general, the pair has lost 0.19%.

 

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish tone and MACD is also indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 41 reading and lies below the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.06%.

 

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 44 reading and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.91%.

  

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and below 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bearish tone and MACD is issuing a bullish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 57 and lies above the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.13%.

 

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish stance and MACD is also indicating a bearish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 38 and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.10%.

 

Appendix

  

FOREX Closing Prices for December 06, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.13428 1.14112 1.13196 1.13761 0.0033
USD/JPY 113.183 113.189 112.213 112.655 -0.5200
GBP/USD 1.27316 1.28084 1.26977 1.27802 0.0049
USD/CHF 0.99751 0.99882 0.98927 0.99262 -0.0049
USD/CAD 1.33545 1.34423 1.3352 1.33802 0.0028
EUR/JPY 128.386 128.422 127.649 128.15 -0.2430
GBP/JPY 144.126 144.144 143.225 144.022 -0.0870
CHF/JPY 113.434 113.481 112.872 113.457 0.0350
AUD/JPY 82.24 82.285 80.899 81.492 -0.7490
EUR/GBP 0.89069 0.89259 0.88849 0.88958 -0.0012
EUR/CHF 1.13147 1.13199 1.12786 1.12929 -0.0023
GBP/CHF 1.27011 1.2718 1.26481 1.2689 -0.0013

 

 

 

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1235 1.1277 1.1327 1.1369 1.1418 1.1461 1.1510
USD/JPY 111.21 111.71 112.18 112.69 113.16 113.66 114.13
GBP/USD 1.2605 1.2651 1.2716 1.2762 1.2827 1.2873 1.2937
USD/CHF 0.9788 0.9840 0.9883 0.9936 0.9979 1.0031 1.0074
USD/CAD 1.3250 1.3301 1.3341 1.3392 1.3431 1.3482 1.3521
EUR/JPY 126.95 127.30 127.73 128.07 128.50 128.85 129.27
GBP/JPY 142.53 142.88 143.45 143.80 144.37 144.72 145.29
CHF/JPY 112.45 112.66 113.06 113.27 113.67 113.88 114.28
AUD/JPY 79.45 80.17 80.83 81.56 82.22 82.94 83.60
EUR/GBP 0.8838 0.8861 0.8879 0.8902 0.8920 0.8943 0.8961
EUR/CHF 1.1233 1.1256 1.1274 1.1297 1.1316 1.1338 1.1357
GBP/CHF 1.2582 1.2615 1.2652 1.2685 1.2722 1.2755 1.2792

 

 

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

 

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

06 Dec 2018

FOREX Newsletter

FOREX Newsletter

December 06, 2018

 

Pulse of the Market

·      Resurgent fears over the U.S-China trade war sapped demand for riskier assets

·      The Pound remained on the back foot as debate on the government’s Brexit plan continued

·      The Canadian dollar weakened to one-and-a-half-year low against its U.S counterpart

·      Australia’s Q/Q growth fell to 0.3% while domestic demand came in weak

The Dollar was little changed against a currency basket yesterday as resurgent fears over the U.S-China trade war sapped demand for riskier assets, while the pound remained on the back foot as a parliamentary debate on the government’s Brexit plan continued. Wall Street slumped on Tuesday after a series of tweets by U.S President Donald Trump dented investor confidence that a full resolution to the U.S.-China trade conflict will be reached during a 90-day trade truce. Trump threatened to impose higher tariffs on China soon unless they make concessions, exacerbating fears over the outlook for global growth. Worries about U.S bond markets signaling an impending recession also weighed on market sentiment. The U.S dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of six major currencies, was at 96.93. Trading volumes were low, with U.S markets closed for a national day of mourning for President George H. W. Bush. Major currencies retraced some of Tuesday’s action today, as investors processed President Donald Trump’s latest comments on China trade. Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar dropped to a six-month low versus its U.S rival, following a Bank of Canada policy update. While it was expected for the BOC to keep its benchmark interest rates unchanged — with the overnight rate at 1.75% — the central bank’s comments on an anticipated loss of economic momentum in the fourth quarter, as well as weaker oil prices threw the Canadian dollar also referred to colloquially as the loonie, into a tailspin. Reduced business investment on the back of trade tensions over the summer, impacted the outlook for the last three months of the year, the BOC said. U.S-China trade relations remained front and center today after tweets by President Donald Trump on Tuesday caused some turbulence. The Australian dollar fell significantly, after recent ABS figures revealed Australia’s Gross Domestic Product slowed in September, missing expectations.

 

Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
00:30 Australia Trade Balance (OCT) Medium   A$3000m A$3017m
07:00 German Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) (OCT) Medium   -3.1% -2.2%
12:30 U.S Challenger Job Cuts (YoY) (NOV) Low     153.6%
13:15 U.S ADP Employment Change (NOV) Medium   195k 227k
13:30 U.S Trade Balance (OCT) Medium   -$55.0b -$54.0b
13:30 U.S Initial Jobless Claims (DEC 1) Medium   225k 234k
13:30 U.S Continuing Claims (NOV 24) Medium   1695k 1710k
15:00 Canada Ivey Purchasing Managers Index s.a. (NOV) Low     61.8
15:00 U.S ISM Non-Manufacturing/Services Composite (NOV) High   59 60.3
15:00 U.S Factory Orders (OCT) Medium   -2.0% 0.7%
15:00 U.S Durable Goods Orders (OCT) Medium   -2.4% -4.4%
16:00 DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (NOV 30) Medium     3577k
23:30 Japan Overall Household Spending (YoY) (OCT) Medium   1.1% -1.6%
23:45 U.S Powell Gives Brief Welcome Remarks at Housing Conference High      

Euro

The single currency ended the day almost unchanged after falling earlier in the session. The EU commission presented its plan to reduce the dollar’s overwhelming dominance of the global economy and to strengthen the role of the euro, particularly for energy transactions. European capitals are increasingly frustrated with the global dominance of the dollar. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1309 and a high of 1.1359 before closing the day around 1.1343 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen lost ground yesterday. There were no data indicators in Japan or the U.S. Today, the focus will be on employment data will be in focus, with the release of ADP nonfarm payrolls and unemployment claims. We’ll also get a look at ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI. Japan will release household spending and average cash earnings. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 112.96 and a high of 113.22 before closing the day around 113.17 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound rose against the Dollar and the euro yesterday as traders priced in an increased chance of the UK staying in the EU following a disastrous day for the prime minister. An unprecedented string of three defeats for the government and a key decision on Brexit from Europe’s top court sent sterling up. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.2670 and a high of 1.2796 before closing the day at 1.2731 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar weakened to one-and-a-half-year low against its U.S counterpart yesterday as investors slashed expectations for further interest rate hikes from the Bank of Canada after a dovish interest rate announcement from the central bank. The Bank of Canada kept its benchmark interest rate on hold at 1.75 per cent. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.3250 and a high of 1.3397 before closing the day at 1.3352 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar fell significantly, after recent ABS figures revealed Australia’s Gross Domestic Product slowed in September, missing expectations. Q/Q growth fell to 0.3%, and was expected to come in at 0.6%, while domestic demand came in weak. The Australian dollar against the greenback crashed upon the news. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7258 and a high of 0.7354 before closing the day at 0.7273 in the New York session.

 

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is issuing a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 47 and lies below the neutral zone. In general, the pair has gained 0.38%.

 

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish tone and MACD is also indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 43 reading and lies below the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has gained 0.51%.

  

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 52 reading and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.58%.

  

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and below 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 56 and lies above the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.10%.

  

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish stance and MACD is also indicating a bearish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 40 and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.16%.

 

Appendix

  

FOREX Closing Prices for December 05, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.1341 1.13599 1.13095 1.13432 0.0002
USD/JPY 112.75 113.223 112.963 113.175 0.4150
GBP/USD 1.27151 1.27964 1.26703 1.27317 0.0017
USD/CHF 0.99718 1.00066 0.99686 0.99752 0.0003
USD/CAD 1.32612 1.3397 1.32504 1.33527 0.0093
EUR/JPY 127.887 128.468 127.766 128.393 0.4850
GBP/JPY 143.385 144.515 143.244 144.109 0.7280
CHF/JPY 113.037 113.469 112.915 113.422 0.3860
AUD/JPY 82.72 82.961 82.14 82.241 -0.4830
EUR/GBP 0.8921 0.893 0.88728 0.89077 -0.0009
EUR/CHF 1.13108 1.1329 1.13092 1.13162 0.0004
GBP/CHF 1.26791 1.27601 1.26702 1.27016 0.0020

 

 

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1265 1.1287 1.1315 1.1338 1.1366 1.1388 1.1416
USD/JPY 112.76 112.86 113.02 113.12 113.28 113.38 113.54
GBP/USD 1.2543 1.2607 1.2669 1.2733 1.2795 1.2859 1.2921
USD/CHF 0.9922 0.9945 0.9960 0.9983 0.9998 1.0021 1.0036
USD/CAD 1.3123 1.3187 1.3270 1.3333 1.3416 1.3480 1.3563
EUR/JPY 127.25 127.51 127.95 128.21 128.65 128.91 129.35
GBP/JPY 142.13 142.69 143.40 143.96 144.67 145.23 145.94
CHF/JPY 112.51 112.71 113.07 113.27 113.62 113.82 114.18
AUD/JPY 81.11 81.63 81.93 82.45 82.75 83.27 83.58
EUR/GBP 0.8820 0.8846 0.8877 0.8904 0.8934 0.8961 0.8991
EUR/CHF 1.1287 1.1298 1.1307 1.1318 1.1327 1.1338 1.1347
GBP/CHF 1.2571 1.2621 1.2661 1.2711 1.2751 1.2801 1.2841

 

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

05 Dec 2018

FOREX Newsletter

FOREX Newsletter

December 05, 2018

 

Pulse of the Market

·      Safe-haven buying emerged after President Trump’s tweet raised fears that trade war was not over

·      Falling Treasuries were blamed for the leg lower in the greenback earlier in the session

·      The Pound Fell as Prime Minister Theresa May’s government was found in contempt of parliament

·      Goldman Sachs said it continued to recommend investors position for a “tactical bounce in USD/CAD

The U.S Dollar rose from lows against its rivals yesterday after the plunge in U.S Treasury yields stalled. Safe-haven buying emerged after President Donald Trump’s tweets raised fears that the trade war was not over. The U.S dollar index, which measures the greenback against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, fell by 0.11% to 96.86, but was above a session low of 96.31. Trump said in a tweet he was “Tariff Man,” reminding investors that he was not afraid to re-escalate trade tensions with China, scaling back optimism from a day earlier, prompting support for Treasuries and helping the greenback move off lows. Falling Treasuries were blamed for the leg lower in the greenback earlier in the session, as fears of an economic recession grew after short-dated Treasury rates rose above longer-dated rates, referred to as an inversion of the Treasury yield curve, a signal of a potential economic recession. Yields on two maturities at the front of the Treasury curve rose above longer-dated 5-year notes overnight Tuesday for the first time in more than a decade. The pound, meanwhile, reversed its gains from earlier after Prime Minister Theresa May’s government was found in contempt of parliament for refusing to release its full legal advice on Brexit. GBP/USD fell from a session high of $1.2839, which had followed hopes that Brexit could be canceled after a top European Officer said that UK should be able to unilaterally cancel its withdrawal from the EU. USD/CAD rose 0.45% to $1.3256 a day ahead of Bank of Canada’s interest rate decision, widely expected to remain unchanged at 1.75%. Ahead of the rate decision, Goldman Sachs said it continued to recommend investors position for a “tactical bounce in CAD vs. USD going into year-end,” citing expectations the Bank of Canada will continue to keep a January rate hike on the table. The markets were delighted with the results of a weekend meeting between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping at the G-20 summit.

 

Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
00:30 Nikkei Japan PMI Services (NOV) Medium     52.4
00:30 Australia Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (3Q) High   3.3% 3.4%
01:45 Caixin China PMI Services (NOV) Medium   50.8 50.8
08:55 Markit Germany Services PMI (NOV) Low   53.3 53.3
09:00 Markit Eurozone Services PMI (NOV) Low   53.1 53.1
09:30 Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI (NOV) Medium   52.5 52.2
10:00 Euro-Zone Retail Sales (YoY) (OCT) Medium   2.0% 0.8%
12:00 U.S MBA Mortgage Applications (NOV 30) Medium     5.5%
13:15 U.S ADP Employment Change (NOV) Medium   195k 227k
14:45 Markit US Services PMI (NOV) Low   54.4 54.4
15:00 Bank of Canada Rate Decision (DEC 5) High   1.75% 1.75%
15:00 U.S ISM Non-Manufacturing/Services Composite (NOV) High   59 60.3
15:30 DOE U.S Crude Oil Inventories (NOV 30) Medium     3577k
19:00 U.S Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book Medium      

 

Euro

The single currency traded sharply higher earlier in yesterday’s session but ended the day slightly lower. EU finance ministers agreed yesterday to give the euro zone ESM bailout fund new responsibilities, but delayed decisions on a euro zone budget and a deposit guarantee scheme after failing to reach an agreement. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1317 and a high of 1.1417 before closing the day around 1.1341 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen traded higher yesterday. The markets were delighted with the results of meeting between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping at the G-20 summit. Trump had threatened to raise tariffs on all Chinese products from 10 percent to 25 percent on December 1, but the Chinese convinced Trump to hold off on the tariffs until March 1. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 112.55 and a high of 113.64 before closing the day around 112.76 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound traded higher at the start of the session following an unexpected piece of legal advice. The advocate general of the European Court of Justice said earlier today that the British government has the unilateral right to withdraw its notice of intent to leave the European Union. However, GBP ended the day lower against the U.S Dollar. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.2656 and a high of 1.2837 before closing the day at 1.2714 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar edged higher in yesterday’s Asian trading hours, after sharp gains at the start of the week. On the release front today, the Bank of Canada is expected to maintain the benchmark rate at 1.75%. The Canadian dollar started the week with sharp gains after the U.S and China agreed to a truce in the tariff war. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.3161 and a high of 1.3264 before closing the day at 1.3259 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar has touched a multi-month peak in a knee jerk reaction to a pause in the Sino-US trade dispute, though there was plenty of caution about the prospects of a lasting peace. The White House said President Donald Trump told Chinese President Xi Jinping that he would not boost tariffs on US$200 billion of Chinese goods on January 1 if Beijing agreed to buy an unspecified amount of US goods. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7324 and a high of 0.7391 before closing the day at 0.7334 in the New York session.

 

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is issuing a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 43 and lies below the neutral zone. In general, the pair has lost 0.86%.

 

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish tone and MACD is also indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 38 reading and lies below the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.83%.

  

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 56 reading and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 1.03%.

 

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and below 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 59 and lies above the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.05%.

 

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish stance and MACD is also indicating a bearish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 37 and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.09%.

 

Appendix

  

FOREX Closing Prices for December 04, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.13523 1.14173 1.13171 1.13417 -0.0010
USD/JPY 113.626 113.642 112.557 112.76 -0.8790
GBP/USD 1.2723 1.28378 1.26566 1.27147 -0.0007
USD/CHF 0.99773 0.9989 0.99285 0.99726 -0.0005
USD/CAD 1.31966 1.32644 1.31616 1.32598 0.0064
EUR/JPY 128.992 129.018 127.596 127.908 -1.1080
GBP/JPY 144.58 144.734 142.817 143.381 -1.1960
CHF/JPY 113.833 113.859 112.838 113.036 -0.8210
AUD/JPY 83.606 83.635 82.536 82.724 -0.8620
EUR/GBP 0.89201 0.8943 0.88878 0.89165 -0.0004
EUR/CHF 1.13278 1.13462 1.13037 1.1312 -0.0015
GBP/CHF 1.26958 1.27546 1.2644 1.26816 -0.0012

 

 

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1200 1.1259 1.1300 1.1359 1.1400 1.1459 1.1501
USD/JPY 111.25 111.90 112.33 112.99 113.42 114.07 114.50
GBP/USD 1.2454 1.2555 1.2635 1.2736 1.2816 1.2918 1.2997
USD/CHF 0.9877 0.9903 0.9938 0.9963 0.9998 1.0024 1.0059
USD/CAD 1.3090 1.3126 1.3193 1.3229 1.3296 1.3331 1.3398
EUR/JPY 125.91 126.75 127.33 128.17 128.75 129.60 130.17
GBP/JPY 140.64 141.73 142.55 143.64 144.47 145.56 146.39
CHF/JPY 111.61 112.22 112.63 113.24 113.65 114.27 114.67
AUD/JPY 81.20 81.87 82.30 82.97 83.39 84.06 84.49
EUR/GBP 0.8833 0.8861 0.8889 0.8916 0.8944 0.8971 0.8999
EUR/CHF 1.1253 1.1278 1.1295 1.1321 1.1338 1.1363 1.1380
GBP/CHF 1.2522 1.2583 1.2632 1.2693 1.2743 1.2804 1.2853

 

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

30 Nov 2018

FOREX Newsletter

FOREX Newsletter

November 30, 2018

 

Pulse of the Market

·      U.S personal income and spending grew more than expected but jobless claims increased

·      Currency movements were restrained by concerns about the upcoming G20 meeting

·      Concerns about the impact of the tariffs forced investors to ignore better labor data from Germany

·      The Australian dollar ended the day higher while the New Zealand dollar sold off

The U.S dollar dropped sharply on the back of Fed Chair Powell’s comments on interest rates. USD/JPY extended slightly lower but GBP/USD retreated and EUR/USD was unchanged. Powell’s view that rates are just under neutral levels is a sign that they intend to slow their pace of tightening next year. However, in yesterday’s note, we pointed out that Fed futures did not change by much because Powell simply said what the market was waiting to hear. Investors had already downplayed expectations for tightening next year with the futures market only pricing in 1 full rate hike in 2019. Yesterday’s U.S. economic reports did nothing to confirm or deny the central bank’s caution – personal income and spending grew more than expected but jobless claims increased and pending home sales fell sharply. Meanwhile, the FOMC minutes did not help the dollar. Currency movements were also restrained by concerns about the upcoming G20 meeting. President Trump sits down with President Xi today and we have no idea how the talks will go. The biggest turnaround yesterday was in the euro. At the start of the NY session, euro was one of the weakest currencies because there were reports that the US would levy tariffs on EU autos before Christmas. Concerns about the impact of the tariffs forced investors to ignore better labor data from Germany and stronger Eurozone confidence. Shortly after the NY open, however, the European Commission denied those reports and the EUR/USD u-turned for a rally to 1.14. The other big story was oil. Before the NY session began, the price of crude fell below the critical $50 mark. In response USD/CAD traded above 1.33. However Russia’s talk of output cuts reversed the slide and sent prices sharply higher (crude ended the day up 2%) and as a result, USD/CAD gave up its gains to end the day unchanged. Canada will be in focus today with quarterly and monthly GDP numbers due for release.

 

Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
00:01 U.K GfK Consumer Confidence (NOV) Medium   -11 -10
01:00 China Non-manufacturing PMI (NOV) Medium   53.8 53.9
01:00 China Manufacturing PMI (NOV) High   50.2 50.2
05:00 Japan Consumer Confidence Index (NOV) Medium   43.2 43
05:00 Japan Housing Starts (YoY) (OCT) Medium   -0.1% -1.5%
07:00 German Retail Sales (YoY) (OCT) Medium   1.4% -2.6%
07:00 U.K Nationwide House Px n.s.a. (YoY) (NOV) Medium   1.7% 1.6%
08:00 Switzerland KOF Leading Indicator (NOV) Medium   99.5 100.1
10:00 Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate (OCT) Medium   8.0% 8.1%
10:00 Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index Core (YoY) (NOV) High   1.1% 1.1%
11:00 Italian Gross Domestic Product w.d.a. (YoY) (3Q) Medium   0.8% 0.8%
13:30 Canada Quarterly Gross Domestic Product Annualized (3Q) High   2.0% 2.9%
13:30 Canada Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (SEP) High   2.3% 2.5%
14:45 U.S Chicago Purchasing Manager (NOV) Medium   58.5 58.4
18:00 Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count (NOV 30) Medium     1079

 

Euro

The single currency traded higher yesterday. Euro zone economic sentiment continued to deteriorate in November but less than predicted, thanks to an unexpected rise in optimism in the industry, data showed yesterday. Economic sentiment in the 19 countries sharing the euro eased to 109.5 in November from 109.7 in October. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1347 and a high of 1.1400 before closing the day around 1.1392 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen posted gains yesterday. On the release front, Japanese retail sales jumped 3.5%, its highest level since December 2017. In the U.S., the Core PCE Price Index dropped to 0.1%, shy of the estimate of 0.2%. Personal Spending improved to 0.6%, above the estimate of 0.4%. On the labor front, unemployment claims jumped to 234 thousand. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 113.17 and a high of 113.64 before closing the day around 113.46 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound fell against the U.S Dollar as Theresa May was grilled by a Commons committee over her Brexit deal. The Prime Minister defended her withdrawal agreement in front of the House of Commons liaison committee just a day after the Bank of England’s bleak no-deal forecast, in which GDP, house prices and the pound itself would fall sharply. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.2753 and a high of 1.2847 before closing the day at 1.2785 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar edged higher, building on gains from the day before as oil prices rallied and data showed that Canada ran a smaller-than-expected current account deficit in the third quarter. The country’s current account deficit narrowed to $10.34 billion in the third quarter from a revised $16.68 billion deficit in the second quarter. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.3251 and a high of 1.3310 before closing the day at 1.3281 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar closed slightly higher yesterday. New figures released by The Australian Bureau of Statistics have barely moved the Australian dollar against the greenback, despite better than expected CAPEX data. ABS figures show an uptick in September private capital expenditure (CAPEX) with the CAPEX slipping 0.5%. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7293 and a high of 0.7342 before closing the day at 0.7310 in the New York session.

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 51 and lies above the neutral zone. In general, the pair has gained 0.06%.

 

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish tone and MACD is indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 45 reading and lies below the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.47%.

 

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is also indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 60 reading and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.01%.

 

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and below 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 59 and lies above the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has gained 0.53%.

  

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bullish stance and MACD is indicating a bearish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 41 and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.07%.

 

Appendix

  

FOREX Closing Prices for November 29, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.13694 1.14003 1.13473 1.1392 0.0028
USD/JPY 113.641 113.648 113.172 113.463 -0.1980
GBP/USD 1.28234 1.28479 1.27536 1.27856 -0.0036
USD/CHF 0.99373 0.99751 0.99158 0.99553 0.0020
USD/CAD 1.32727 1.33103 1.3251 1.32818 0.0008
EUR/JPY 129.207 129.283 128.651 129.269 0.0820
GBP/JPY 145.743 145.787 144.492 145.066 -0.6790
CHF/JPY 114.326 114.384 113.602 113.93 -0.4350
AUD/JPY 83.012 83.184 82.712 83.026 0.0110
EUR/GBP 0.88634 0.89184 0.88576 0.89077 0.0047
EUR/CHF 1.12988 1.13465 1.12873 1.13437 0.0049
GBP/CHF 1.27419 1.27502 1.26756 1.27306 -0.0009

  

 

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1306 1.1327 1.1359 1.1380 1.1412 1.1433 1.1465
USD/JPY 112.73 112.95 113.21 113.43 113.68 113.90 114.16
GBP/USD 1.2649 1.2701 1.2744 1.2796 1.2838 1.2890 1.2932
USD/CHF 0.9863 0.9889 0.9922 0.9949 0.9982 1.0008 1.0041
USD/CAD 1.3192 1.3222 1.3252 1.3281 1.3311 1.3340 1.3370
EUR/JPY 128.22 128.44 128.85 129.07 129.48 129.70 130.12
GBP/JPY 143.15 143.82 144.44 145.12 145.74 146.41 147.03
CHF/JPY 112.78 113.19 113.56 113.97 114.34 114.75 115.12
AUD/JPY 82.29 82.50 82.76 82.97 83.24 83.45 83.71
EUR/GBP 0.8810 0.8834 0.8871 0.8895 0.8932 0.8955 0.8992
EUR/CHF 1.1246 1.1267 1.1305 1.1326 1.1364 1.1385 1.1424
GBP/CHF 1.2613 1.2644 1.2687 1.2719 1.2762 1.2793 1.2837

 

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

29 Nov 2018

FOREX Newsletter

      

FOREX Newsletter

 November 29, 2018

 

Pulse of the Market

·      Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said that interest rates are just below neutral

·      Investors are also focused on the G20 summit in Buenos Aires on Friday and Saturday

·      Euro zone members aim to agree reforms to make their currency union more resilient

·      The Canadian dollar weakened to a five-month low against its U.S. counterpart yesterday

The U.S Dollar tumbled from two-week highs yesterday after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said that interest rates are just below neutral, raising expectations that the U.S. central bank is closer to the end of its rate hike cycle. Powell said the policy rate, at 2-2.25 percent, is now “just below” the broad range of estimates of neutral, which in September was 2.5-3.5 percent. That contrasts with comments on Oct. 3 when Powell said the Fed might raise rates past neutral, adding that they are probably “a long way” from that point. The Fed has not raised the rates in order to gain ground on neutral between Oct. 3 and today, so therefore his view of the economy has declined. The dollar has been under pressure in recent weeks on signs that the Fed might reduce the pace of rate increases amid slowing global growth, peak corporate earnings and the escalating trade tensions. U.S President Donald Trump has also expressed frustration with Fed rate hikes. Trump said in a Washington Post interview on Tuesday that he was “not even a little bit happy” with the Fed chairman and that the central bank’s policies are hurting the economy. Minutes from the Fed’s Nov. 7-8 meeting, to be released today, will next be evaluated for further indications of how many more times the U.S central bank is likely to hike interest rates. Investors are also focused on the G20 summit in Buenos Aires on Friday and Saturday, where Trump and his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, are scheduled to discuss contentious trade matters. German Finance Minister Olaf Scholz said yesterday he wants euro zone reforms to include changing the European Stability Mechanism bailout fund to a European Monetary Fund (EMF) to support members’ states when needed. The British Pound was already higher before the government’s analysis of Brexit scenarios report was released yesterday. The beleaguered currency actually managed to climb further higher – hitting the $1.28.

 

 

Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
06:45 Switzerland Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (3Q) High   2.9% 3.4%
07:45 French Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (3Q) Medium   1.5% 1.5%
08:55 German Unemployment Change (000’s) (NOV) High   -10k -11k
08:55 German Unemployment Claims Rate s.a. (NOV) High   5.1% 5.1%
09:30 U.K Net Consumer Credit (OCT) Medium   1.0b 0.8b
09:30 U.K Net Lending Sec. on Dwellings (OCT) Medium   3.5b 3.9b
09:30 U.K Mortgage Approvals (OCT) Medium   64.5k 65.3k
10:00 Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence (NOV) Low   -3.9 -3.9
13:00 German Consumer Price Index (YoY) (NOV) High   2.4% 2.5%
13:30 U.S Personal Income (OCT) Medium   0.4% 0.2%
13:30 U.S Personal Spending (OCT) Medium   0.4% 0.4%
13:30 U.S PCE Core (YoY) (OCT) High   2.1% 2.0%
13:30 U.S Initial Jobless Claims (NOV 24) Medium   220k 224k
15:00 U.S Pending Home Sales (YoY) (OCT) Medium   -2.8% -3.4%
19:00 U.S FOMC Meeting Minutes (NOV 08) High      

 

Euro

The single currency gained as Euro zone members aim to agree reforms to make their currency union more resilient when they meet next week. German Finance Minister Olaf Scholz said he wanted to promote a euro zone budget as part of the EU budget to help investment, economic convergence and stability in the euro zone. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1265 and a high of 1.1386 before closing the day around 1.1364 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen pair ticked lower in the Wednesday session. On the release front, U.S. Preliminary GDP for the third quarter gained 3.5%, just shy of the estimate of 3.6%. This follows an identical gain of 3.5% in the Advanced GDP release. Today promises to be a busy day, as the U.S releases three key indicators. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 113.42 and a high of 114.01 before closing the day around 113.66 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound ticked higher yesterday. On the release front, the BoE released its financial stability report. In the U.S, the key event was Preliminary GDP, which gained 3.5% in Q3. This follows an identical gain of 3.5% in the Advanced GDP release in October. Today, the U.K releases Net Lending to Individuals as well as GfK Consumer Confidence. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.2730 and a high of 1.2845 before closing the day at 1.2821 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar weakened to a five-month low against its U.S counterpart yesterday as oil prices declined and ahead of the potential signing of a new North American trade pact this week. The price of oil was pressured yesterday by rising U.S inventories and doubts over whether an OPEC-led output cut will be agreed next week. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.3239 and a high of 1.3357 before closing the day at 1.3274 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar gained as the market waited for some clarity to emerge on Sino-US trade, while soft economic data at home had only a fleeting impact. US President Donald Trump is open to reaching a deal over dinner on Saturday with Chinese leader Xi Jinping but is ready to hike tariffs if there is no breakthrough, White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said on Tuesday. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7219 and a high of 0.7326 before closing the day at 0.7308 in the New York session.

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is issuing a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 52 and lies below the neutral zone. In general, the pair has gained 0.61%.

 

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish tone and MACD is indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 49 reading and lies below the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has gained 0.50%.

 

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is also indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 61 reading and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 1.02%.

 

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and below 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bearish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 54 and lies above the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has gained 0.03%.

 

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish stance and MACD is also indicating a bearish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 41 and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.11%.

 

Appendix

  

FOREX Closing Prices for November 28, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.12903 1.1386 1.12657 1.13644 0.0078
USD/JPY 113.761 114.018 113.423 113.661 -0.1130
GBP/USD 1.27374 1.28453 1.27305 1.28212 0.0077
USD/CHF 0.99876 1.00042 0.99237 0.99357 -0.0049
USD/CAD 1.32935 1.33575 1.32398 1.32741 -0.0020
EUR/JPY 128.432 129.235 128.226 129.187 0.7800
GBP/JPY 144.938 145.811 144.836 145.745 0.7190
CHF/JPY 113.892 114.383 113.763 114.365 0.4480
AUD/JPY 82.171 83.155 82.14 83.015 0.8390
EUR/GBP 0.88635 0.88744 0.88086 0.88609 0.0002
EUR/CHF 1.12764 1.13145 1.12588 1.12945 0.0019
GBP/CHF 1.27186 1.27893 1.27145 1.274 0.0015

 

 

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1171 1.1218 1.1291 1.1339 1.1412 1.1459 1.1532
USD/JPY 112.79 113.11 113.38 113.70 113.98 114.30 114.57
GBP/USD 1.2638 1.2684 1.2753 1.2799 1.2868 1.2914 1.2982
USD/CHF 0.9824 0.9874 0.9905 0.9955 0.9985 1.0035 1.0066
USD/CAD 1.3106 1.3173 1.3223 1.3290 1.3341 1.3408 1.3459
EUR/JPY 127.52 127.87 128.53 128.88 129.54 129.89 130.55
GBP/JPY 144.14 144.49 145.12 145.46 146.09 146.44 147.07
CHF/JPY 113.34 113.55 113.96 114.17 114.58 114.79 115.20
AUD/JPY 81.37 81.76 82.39 82.77 83.40 83.79 84.42
EUR/GBP 0.8756 0.8782 0.8822 0.8848 0.8887 0.8914 0.8953
EUR/CHF 1.1208 1.1234 1.1264 1.1289 1.1320 1.1345 1.1375
GBP/CHF 1.2632 1.2673 1.2707 1.2748 1.2781 1.2823 1.2856

 

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

28 Nov 2018

FOREX Newsletter

FOREX Newsletter

November 28, 2018

 

  Pulse of the Market

·      The U.S Conference Board’s consumer confidence gauge fell to a reading of 135.7 in November

·      President Trump said the Brexit agreement would hamper trade between the U.S and Britain

·      The British Pound fell after currency markets ignored positive UK data in favour of Brexit fears

·      Japanese officials will be keeping a close eye on the G-20 summit in Argentina later this week

 

The U.S Dollar rose against its rivals yesterday, shrugging off mostly bearish economic data, while a slump in the pound also lifted sentiment. The U.S dollar index, which measures the greenback against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, rose by 0.29% to 97.27. The S&P/Case-Shiller national house price index rose to a seasonally adjusted 0.3% in September, but rose just 5.1% compared to a year before, missing expectations for a 5.3% increase. The Conference Board’s consumer confidence gauge fell to a reading of 135.7 in November from 137.9 in last month, missing economists’ forecast for a reading of 135.9. Consumer sentiment is a leading indicator of consumer spending, which plays a major role in overall economic activity. The dollar was also swayed by remarks from Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Richard Clarida, who continued to back gradual rate hikes and said there were was no agreement on “how close” interest rates were to neutral. A slump in sterling helped the greenback hold gains after President Donald Trump said the Brexit agreement would hamper trade between the United States and Britain. Traders were also eyeing the Bank of England’s report on the economic impact of Brexit today. USD/JPY rose 0.17% to $113.78 as Wall Street rebounded from early-session weakness, reducing demand for safe-haven yen, even as White House chief economic advisor Larry Kudlow reportedly downplayed the prospect of U.S.-China trade deal at an upcoming G20 summit. The Canadian dollar edged lower against its U.S counterpart yesterday as concern about world trade tensions weighed on stocks and boosted the greenback. Canada exports many commodities, including oil, and runs a current account deficit, so its economy could be hurt if the global flow of trade or capital slows. The price of oil was supported by expectations that oil exporters would agree to cut output at an OPEC meeting next week.

 

 

Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
00:01 U.K BRC Shop Price Index (YoY) (NOV) Low     -0.2%
07:00 BOE Financial Stability Report and stress test results Medium      
09:00 Euro-Zone M3 Money Supply (YoY) (OCT) Low   3.5% 3.5%
12:00 U.S MBA Mortgage Applications (NOV 23) Medium     -0.1%
12:00 German GfK Consumer Confidence (DEC) Medium   10.5 10.6
13:30 U.S Advance Goods Trade Balance (OCT) High   -$77.0b -$76.3b
13:30 U.S Wholesale Inventories (MoM) (OCT) Medium   0.4% 0.4%
13:30 U.S Gross Domestic Product Annualized (QoQ) (3Q) High   3.5% 3.5%
13:30 U.S Personal Consumption (3Q) Medium   3.9% 4.0%
13:30 U.S Core PCE (QoQ) (3Q) Medium   1.6% 1.6%
15:00 U.S New Home Sales (MoM) (OCT) Medium   4.0% -5.5%
15:30 U.S Crude Oil Inventories (NOV 23) Medium 578.86k   4851k
17:00 U.S Fed’s Powell Speaks to Economic Club of New York High      
23:50 Japan Retail Trade (YoY) (OCT) Medium   2.7% 2.2%
23:50 Japan Large Retailers’ Sales (OCT) Medium   0.7% 0.4%

Euro

The single currency ceded ground to a resurgent Dollar, even after Italy’s government blinked in its budget standoff with the EU. The U.S Dollar on its front foot following President Donald Trump’s latest threats against China, and as markets grapple with a litany of political and economic risks looming over the Euro outlook. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1275 and a high of 1.1342 before closing the day around 1.1285 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen pair ticked higher yesterday. On the release front, Japanese SPPI ticked higher to 1.3%, above the estimate of 1.2%. It was a similar trend for BoJ Core CPI, the preferred inflation indicator for the Bank of Japan. The indicator edged higher to 0.6%, just above the forecast of 0.5%. This marked the highest level in seven months. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 113.39 and a high of 113.82 before closing the day around 113.77 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound fell against the U.S Dollar after currency markets ignored positive UK data in favor of Brexit fears. The CBI reported better retail trends in its Nov survey but sterling ignored the data and remains soft amid Brexit worries and following the verbal intervention of President Trump in the Brexit debate yesterday. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.2723 and a high of 1.2817 before closing the day at 1.2744 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar edged lower against its U.S counterpart yesterday as concern about world trade tensions weighed on stocks and boosted the greenback. The U.S. dollar rose to its highest level in almost two weeks against its major rivals, after President Donald Trump said he would push ahead with tariffs on Chinese goods.  Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.3233 and a high of 1.3326 before closing the day at 1.3294 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar stabilized following an overnight slump yesterday but the outlook is growing more uncertain because commodity price headwinds are now returning to haunt the currency. Iron ore fell by 6% overnight in China, with the hard commodity now in bear market territory, dragging the Aussie down with it. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7197 and a high of 0.7267 before closing the day at 0.7224 in the New York session.

 

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is issuing a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 46 and lies below the neutral zone. In general, the pair has lost 0.18%.

 

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish tone and MACD is indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 44 reading and lies below the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.29%.

  

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is also indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 55 reading and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.24%.

  

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and below 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bearish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 55 and lies above the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has gained 0.21%.

 

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish stance and MACD is also indicating a bearish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 38 and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.48%.

 

Appendix

  

FOREX Closing Prices for November 27, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.13259 1.13423 1.12759 1.12859 -0.0041
USD/JPY 113.566 113.824 113.396 113.774 0.2070
GBP/USD 1.28101 1.28179 1.27236 1.27445 -0.0063
USD/CHF 0.9983 1.00017 0.99736 0.99846 0.0000
USD/CAD 1.32498 1.3326 1.32333 1.32942 0.0042
EUR/JPY 128.629 128.824 128.332 128.407 -0.2340
GBP/JPY 145.475 145.554 144.572 145.026 -0.4210
CHF/JPY 113.724 113.963 113.492 113.917 0.1970
AUD/JPY 81.97 82.535 81.793 82.176 0.1960
EUR/GBP 0.88381 0.88857 0.88371 0.88585 0.0018
EUR/CHF 1.13074 1.13228 1.12716 1.1276 -0.0033
GBP/CHF 1.27897 1.27966 1.27071 1.27254 -0.0062

 

 

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1194 1.1235 1.1260 1.1301 1.1327 1.1368 1.1393
USD/JPY 113.08 113.24 113.51 113.66 113.93 114.09 114.36
GBP/USD 1.2612 1.2668 1.2706 1.2762 1.2800 1.2856 1.2895
USD/CHF 0.9943 0.9959 0.9972 0.9987 1.0000 1.0015 1.0028
USD/CAD 1.3150 1.3192 1.3243 1.3285 1.3336 1.3377 1.3428
EUR/JPY 127.73 128.03 128.22 128.52 128.71 129.01 129.20
GBP/JPY 143.57 144.07 144.55 145.05 145.53 146.03 146.51
CHF/JPY 113.15 113.32 113.62 113.79 114.09 114.26 114.56
AUD/JPY 81.06 81.43 81.80 82.17 82.54 82.91 83.29
EUR/GBP 0.8787 0.8812 0.8835 0.8860 0.8884 0.8909 0.8932
EUR/CHF 1.1206 1.1239 1.1257 1.1290 1.1309 1.1341 1.1360
GBP/CHF 1.2600 1.2654 1.2689 1.2743 1.2779 1.2833 1.2868

 

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

27 Nov 2018

FOREX Newsletter

FOREX Newsletter

November 27, 2018

 

Pulse of the Market

·      The U.S will publish CB Consumer Confidence, which is forecast to dip to 136.2 points

·      The euro gained against the dollar today on signs that Italy may cut its budget deficit target

·      Japanese Flash Manufacturing PMI dipped to 51.8, shy of the estimate of 53.0

·      The Pound steadied yesterday after Britain sealed a deal with the European Union

The Dollar inched down yesterday amid geopolitical tensions as investors pause ahead of a planned meeting between U.S.-China leaders later this week. The U.S dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of six major currencies, was down 0.04% to 96.785, retreating from one-week highs of 96.96 reached overnight. Trade worries weighed on the greenback, as investors wait for the G20 summit in Argentina on Friday. U.S President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are expected to meet on the sidelines to discuss a possible trade deal. The euro pared back earlier gains the dollar, with EUR/USD rising 0.12% to 1.1350, boosted by news that disagreements between Rome and Europe could be resolved. Italian Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini indicated that his government could lower its borrowing targets, which the European Commission had said is against EU fiscal rules. Broader optimism over the euro was also reflected in the latest weekly positioning data, where long dollar positions have been declining slightly for the week ending November 16. The pound was also higher, with GBP/USD up 0.20% to 1.2839. On Sunday, EU leaders approved the terms of the UK’s withdrawal from the bloc, the Brexit deal will have to pass a vote in the British parliament in early December. The dollar was higher against the safe-haven Japanese yen, with USD/JPY rising 0.41% to 113.43. In times of uncertainty, investors tend to invest in the Japanese yen, which is considered a safe asset during periods of risk aversion. The Canadian dollar strengthened against its U.S. counterpart on Monday, paring some of last week’s decline, as oil prices and stocks rallied. Stocks were boosted by robust sales in the holiday season, after a steep selloff on Wall Street in the previous session. Canada exports many commodities, including oil, and runs a current account deficit, so its economy could benefit from an improved outlook for the global flow of trade or capital. The price of oil recovered some of the previous session’s near-7 per cent fall. U.S crude prices were up 2.7 per cent at $51.77 a barrel. The loonie gained despite a report that General Motors Co. plans to announce it will significantly cut car production in North America and stop building some low-selling car models.

 

Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
  German Retail Sales (YoY) (OCT) Medium     -2.6%
11:00 U.K CBI Reported Sales (NOV) Low   10 5
14:00 U.S House Price Index (MoM) (SEP) Medium   0.4% 0.3%
14:00 U.S House Price Purchase Index (QoQ) (3Q) Medium     1.1%
14:00 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City (MoM) SA (SEP) Medium   0.25% 0.09%
14:00 S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 (YoY) (SEP) Medium   5.3% 5.49%
14:00 S&P/Case-Shiller US Home Price Index (YoY) (SEP) Medium     5.77%
15:00 U.S Consumer Confidence Index (NOV) High   136.0 137.9
15:00 U.S Conf. Board Present Situation (NOV) Medium     172.8
15:00 U.S Conf. Board Expectations (NOV) Low     114.6
19:30 U.S Fed’s Bostic, Evan and George Speak on Panel Low      
20:00 RBNZ Publishes Financial Stability Report Medium      

 

Euro

The single currency gained against the dollar on signs that Italy may cut its budget deficit target to satisfy the European Union, and as a rebound in oil prices helped to improve risk sentiment. The Euro gained despite data showing that German business morale fell by more than expected in November as the country’s exporters get caught up in a trade dispute. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1323 and a high of 1.1382 before closing the day around 1.1326 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen pair ticked higher yesterday. On the release front, Japanese Flash Manufacturing PMI dipped to 51.8, shy of the estimate of 53.0. This marked a 4-month low. There were no U.S indicators on the schedule. Today, Japan releases BoJ Core CPI, the preferred inflation indicator of the Bank of Japan. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 112.86 and a high of 113.63 before closing the day around 113.56 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound steadied after Britain sealed a deal with the European Union on quitting the bloc, with the currency’s gains curbed by doubts about whether Prime Minister Theresa May can get the agreement through a divided parliament. Sterling traders are focused on a parliamentary vote on the deal likely to take place in mid-December. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.2794 and a high of 1.2862 before closing the day at 1.2807 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar strengthened against its U.S counterpart yesterday, paring some of last week’s decline, as oil prices and stocks rallied. Canada exports many commodities, including oil, and runs a current account deficit, so its economy could benefit from an improved outlook for the global flow of trade or capital.  Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.3184 and a high of 1.3259 before closing the day at 1.3251 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar traded higher earlier in the session yesterday but ended the day slightly lower as the RBA described a deteriorating property market. The local currency last Friday has eased and was on track for its worst weekly performances since early October as a global sell-off in equities took the shine off risk assets. The Australian dollar, often traded as a liquid proxy for global trade prospects. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7222 and a high of 0.7274 before closing the day at 0.7224 in the New York session.

 

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is issuing a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 48 and lies below the neutral zone. In general, the pair has gained 0.53%.

 

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish tone and MACD is indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 47 reading and lies below the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has gained 0.53%.

  

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is also indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 54 reading and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.41%.

 

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and below 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bearish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 51 and lies above the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.02%.

 

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading above 14 and below 50, 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish stance and MACD is also indicating a bearish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 43 and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.04%.

 

Appendix

  

FOREX Closing Prices for November 26, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.13336 1.13823 1.13235 1.13266 -0.0007
USD/JPY 112.905 113.632 112.86 113.567 0.6600
GBP/USD 1.28221 1.28623 1.27942 1.28078 -0.0004
USD/CHF 0.99687 0.99915 0.99525 0.99841 0.0009
USD/CAD 1.32231 1.3259 1.31846 1.32518 0.0019
EUR/JPY 128.002 128.895 127.906 128.641 0.6720
GBP/JPY 144.753 145.716 144.626 145.447 0.7700
CHF/JPY 113.216 113.779 113.132 113.72 0.5620
AUD/JPY 81.634 82.35 81.553 81.98 0.3380
EUR/GBP 0.8839 0.88669 0.88344 0.88403 -0.0002
EUR/CHF 1.13044 1.13397 1.13001 1.13091 0.0002
GBP/CHF 1.27817 1.28295 1.27686 1.27869 0.0005

 

 

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1247 1.1285 1.1306 1.1344 1.1365 1.1403 1.1424
USD/JPY 112.30 112.58 113.07 113.35 113.85 114.13 114.62
GBP/USD 1.2712 1.2753 1.2781 1.2821 1.2849 1.2890 1.2917
USD/CHF 0.9922 0.9937 0.9961 0.9976 1.0000 1.0015 1.0039
USD/CAD 1.3130 1.3157 1.3205 1.3232 1.3279 1.3306 1.3353
EUR/JPY 127.08 127.49 128.07 128.48 129.06 129.47 130.04
GBP/JPY 143.72 144.17 144.81 145.26 145.90 146.35 146.99
CHF/JPY 112.66 112.90 113.31 113.54 113.96 114.19 114.60
AUD/JPY 80.78 81.16 81.57 81.96 82.37 82.76 83.17
EUR/GBP 0.8795 0.8815 0.8828 0.8847 0.8860 0.8880 0.8893
EUR/CHF 1.1253 1.1277 1.1293 1.1316 1.1333 1.1356 1.1372
GBP/CHF 1.2700 1.2734 1.2761 1.2795 1.2821 1.2856 1.2882

 

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

26 Nov 2018

FOREX Newsletter

FOREX Newsletter

November 26, 2018

 

Pulse of the Market

·      Risk aversion drove all of the major currencies lower against the U.S Dollar on Friday

·      For the UK, even if EU leaders approve the agreement PM May still needs to sell it to Parliament

·      Italy’s troubles continue to plague the euro which fell to fresh lows against the greenback

·      The Canadian dollar was hit the hardest although a large part of that was of decline in oil prices

 

The biggest story last week was the meltdown in equities that spilled over to currencies. U.S stocks turned negative for the year after erasing all of its gains. This is significant because less than 2 months ago, the S&P 500 was up about 9%. It lost all of that in a matter of a month, recovered briefly and is now back in the red. As a result risk aversion drove all of the major currencies lower against the U.S. dollar. The Canadian dollar was hit the hardest although a large part of that had to do with the decline in oil prices. The Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc were the best performers, which is natural under a risk averse environment while the Australian and New Zealand dollars were the worst. Looking ahead, the last week of November brings a renewed focus on Brexit and trade in the lead up to the EU’s Brexit summit and the G20 meeting. There’s also data on the calendar that could be market moving including Germany’s IFO and unemployment reports, the U.S’ confidence, trade, personal income, personal spending, Q3 GDP revisions, the Fed minutes, New Zealand’s trade balance and Chinese PMIs. Earlier in the week, sterling popped after Prime Minister May managed to secure a deal with the European Union but the agreement does not resolve many of the major issues that put the deal at risk. For the EU, Gibraltar, the Irish backstop and fishing rights are lingering problems that could scuttle the deal. Spain made it clear that they will reject any agreement that leaves them out out of talks involving the status of Gibraltar. Now the UK needs a majority (not all) of the 27 member states to support the agreement but given Spain’s role, the agreement will most likely be amended which could lead to further back and forth to satisfy their concerns. Meanwhile Italy’s troubles continue to plague the euro which fell to fresh lows against the greenback. Last week, the European Commission opened disciplinary measures against Italy for refusing to submit a budget proposal that complies with their rules. EU member states have 2 weeks to agree with the EC’s decision to begin the Excessive Deficit Procedure (EDP) and if they do, the EC will give Italy the opportunity to prepare a response on how they will rein their deficit in and bring it back into compliance with EU rules. Last but not least, the Canadian dollar has been hit hard by the decline in oil prices. Since peaking in the beginning of October, the price of crude has fallen more than 30% with prices dropping to a fresh 1 year low last week.

 

 

Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
00:30 Nikkei Japan PMI Manufacturing (NOV) Medium     52.9
09:00 German IFO Business Climate (NOV) Medium   102.3 102.8
09:00 German IFO Expectations (NOV) Medium   99.3 99.8
09:00 German IFO Current Assessment (NOV) Medium   105.6 105.9
09:30 U.K BBA Loans for House Purchase (OCT) Medium     38505
13:30 U.S Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index (OCT) Low     0.17
14:00 ECB’s Draghi Speak in European Parliament in Brussels High      
18:30 BOE Governor Carney, former Fed Chairman Greenspan Speak High      
21:45 New Zealand Trade Balance (OCT) Medium     -1560m

Euro

The single currency slumped half a percent in Friday’s trading session on signs that economic growth could be slowing across the euro zone with worries about Brexit and Italy’s budget negotiations also weighing on the single currency. Business growth in the euro zone slowed much faster than expected this month. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1326 and a high of 1.1419 before closing the day around 1.1333 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen pair put in a mixed performance last week before closing higher. The price action was a little skewed last week due to thin trading conditions because of bank holidays in the United States and Japan. The Forex pair started the week under pressure as investors continued to react to relatively flat U.S consumer inflation data. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 112.64 and a high of 112.99 before closing the day around 112.90 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound fell sharply against the U.S Dollar on Friday. The British Pound recovered some lost ground against the Euro ahead of the Sunday meeting of EU leaders in the wake of news the UK and the European Commissions had agreed a text on the Political Declaration on future trade negotiations. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.2796 and a high of 1.2880 before closing the day at 1.2812 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar weakened on Friday, as a further slide in the price of oil offset domestic data showing above-target inflation and increased retail sales. Canada’s annual inflation rate remained above the central bank’s target of 2 per cent for the ninth straight month in October and retail trade volumes climbed 0.5 per cent in September, data showed.  Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.3182 and a high of 1.3256 before closing the day at 1.3232 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar has eased and is on track for its worst weekly performances since early October as a global sell-off in equities took the shine off risk assets. It was down more than one per cent last week. The losses coincided with a global share rout as investors fretted about a possible slowdown in world growth amid policy tightening in the United States and the bitter Sino-US trade war.  Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7216 and a high of 0.7255 before closing the day at 0.7230 in the New York session.

 

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is issuing a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 42 and lies below the neutral zone. In general, the pair has lost 0.64%.

 

Sterling-Yen

 

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish tone and MACD is indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 43 reading and lies below the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.51%.

 

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is also indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 51 reading and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.31%.

 

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and below 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bearish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 52 and lies above the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.12%.

 

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading above 14 and below 50, 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish stance and MACD is also indicating a bearish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 42 and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.28%.

 

Appendix

  

FOREX Closing Prices for November 23, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.14049 1.14199 1.13262 1.13331 -0.0069
USD/JPY 112.931 112.99 112.641 112.907 -0.0170
GBP/USD 1.28761 1.28808 1.27969 1.28122 -0.0063
USD/CHF 0.99451 0.99784 0.99329 0.99748 0.0026
USD/CAD 1.31898 1.32562 1.31824 1.32324 0.0046
EUR/JPY 128.799 128.896 127.798 127.969 -0.8180
GBP/JPY 145.428 145.505 144.324 144.677 -0.7390
CHF/JPY 113.485 113.628 113.013 113.158 -0.2920
AUD/JPY 81.889 81.949 81.394 81.642 -0.2550
EUR/GBP 0.88548 0.8876 0.8868 0.88424 -0.0011
EUR/CHF 1.13401 1.13525 1.12951 1.13069 -0.0037
GBP/CHF 1.281 1.28204 1.27599 1.27821 -0.0036

  

 

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1206 1.1266 1.1300 1.1360 1.1393 1.1453 1.1487
USD/JPY 112.35 112.50 112.70 112.85 113.05 113.20 113.40
GBP/USD 1.2695 1.2746 1.2779 1.2830 1.2863 1.2914 1.2947
USD/CHF 0.9900 0.9917 0.9946 0.9962 0.9991 1.0008 1.0037
USD/CAD 1.3117 1.3150 1.3191 1.3224 1.3265 1.3297 1.3339
EUR/JPY 126.45 127.12 127.55 128.22 128.64 129.32 129.74
GBP/JPY 142.98 143.65 144.17 144.84 145.35 146.02 146.53
CHF/JPY 112.29 112.65 112.90 113.27 113.52 113.88 114.13
AUD/JPY 80.82 81.11 81.37 81.66 81.93 82.22 82.48
EUR/GBP 0.8840 0.8854 0.8848 0.8862 0.8856 0.8870 0.8864
EUR/CHF 1.1226 1.1261 1.1284 1.1318 1.1341 1.1376 1.1399
GBP/CHF 1.2694 1.2727 1.2755 1.2787 1.2815 1.2848 1.2876

 

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

23 Nov 2018

FOREX Newsletter

FOREX Newsletter

November 23, 2018

 

Pulse of the Market

·      Markets and banks in the U.S were closed yesterday for the Thanksgiving holiday

·      The U.S Dollar was slightly lower as safe-haven demand remained subdued after a rebound in stocks

·      The U.S Department of Labor reported Wednesday that initial jobless claims rose by 3,000

·      Cable gained after reports that negotiators have made another breakthrough on the path to Brexit

 

The U.S Dollar ticked lower against a currency basket yesterday as a cautiously optimistic mood in markets dampened safe haven demand, while the euro edged higher amid hopes for a resolution to the row over Italy’s budget. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of six major currencies, edged down to an overnight low of 96.44 and was at 96.47. The dollar had weakened slightly on Wednesday following reports that the Federal Reserve could pause its rate rise cycle as early as next spring. The Fed is expected to raise rates for a fourth time this year at its December meeting. The U.S Dollar pulled back against most of the major currencies on Wednesday except for the Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc. The resilience of USD/JPY continues to surprise considering that most of today’s U.S. economic reports missed expectations. Durable goods orders dropped -4.4%, jobless claims increased and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index was revised lower. While existing home sales beat, it is becoming very clear that the momentum in the U.S economy is easing. The British pound gained sharply yesterday after reports that UK and EU negotiators have made another breakthrough on the path to Brexit. European Council President Donald Tusk said on Thursday morning that a political declaration on the UK and EU’s future relationship “agreed at negotiators’ level and agreed in principle at political level.” Prior to Tusk’s comments, an EU official said on Thursday morning that a 20-page declaration had been finalized ahead of an EU summit on Sunday where Prime Minister Theresa May hopes to have the Brexit divorce deal signed off. The news, which marks another major step forward in the Brexit process, sent the pound flying higher, gaining as much as 1.1% against the dollar. The Euro was a touch higher, with EUR/USD gaining 0.16% to trade at 1.1402 amid hopes that the row between Italy’s government and the European Union over Rome’s 2019 budget, which is in breach of euro zone fiscal rules, can be resolved. The Canadian dollar edged higher yesterday as the greenback broadly fell and Canada’s government weighed a proposal which could help soften the blow from price discounts on heavy crude generated by pipeline congestion.

 

Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
00:30 Nikkei Japan PMI Manufacturing (NOV) Medium     52.9
07:00 German Gross Domestic Product w.d.a. (YoY) (3Q) Medium   1.1% 1.1%
08:30 Markit/BME Germany Manufacturing PMI (NOV) Medium   52.2 52.2
08:30 Markit Germany Services PMI (NOV) Medium   54.5 54.7
09:00 Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (NOV) Medium   52.0 52.0
09:00 Markit Eurozone Services PMI (NOV) Medium   53.6 53.7
13:30 Canada Retail Sales (MoM) (SEP) Medium   0.0% -0.1%
13:30 Canada Consumer Price Index (YoY) (OCT) High   2.2% 2.2%
14:45 Markit US Manufacturing PMI (NOV) Medium   55.8 55.7
14:45 Markit US Services PMI (NOV) Medium   55.0 54.8
14:45 Markit US Composite PMI (NOV) Medium     54.9

Euro

The single currency briefly rallied to the day’s highs in yesterday’s session after Britain and the European Union agreed in principle to a text setting out their future relationship before a summit on Sunday. However, gains were limited as focus turned on the minutes of the European Central Bank’s October meeting. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1379 and a high of 1.1432 before closing the day around 1.1401 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen ticked higher against the U.S Dollar in yesterday trading session. On the release front, Japanese National Core CPI posted a gain of 1.0%, unchanged from the previous release. This matched the forecast. Markets and banks in the U.S were closed for the Thanksgiving holiday and there are no U.S events on the schedule. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 112.86 and a high of 113.21 before closing the day around 112.92 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound has taken off after reports that UK and EU negotiators have made another breakthrough on the path to Brexit. European Council President Donald Tusk said yesterday morning that a political declaration on the UK and EU’s future relationship “agreed at negotiators’ level and agreed in principle at political level.” Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.2767 and a high of 1.2926 before closing the day at 1.2875 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar edged higher against its U.S counterpart yesterday as the greenback broadly fell and Canada’s government weighed a proposal which could help soften the blow from price discounts on heavy crude generated by pipeline congestion. Recent weakening in the price of U.S oil has added to headwinds for Canada’s oil patch. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.3179 and a high of 1.3242 before closing the day at 1.3186 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar is undervalued and its Kiwi counterpart trades at a premium to fair value, according to analysts at Westpac. AUD/USD is 2% below fair value, arguably carrying too much weight from Australian political risks and the US-China trade war. The Australian Dollar has been hit hard in 2018 by a combination of factors.  Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7232 and a high of 0.7266 before closing the day at 0.7252 in the New York session.

 

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is issuing a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 50 and lies below the neutral zone. In general, the pair has gained 0.06%.

 

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish tone and MACD is indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 46 reading and lies below the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has gained 0.67%.

 

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is also indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 54 reading and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.24%.

 

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and below 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bearish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 53 and lies above the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.63%.

  

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading above 14 and below 50, 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish stance and MACD is also indicating a bearish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 43 and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.89%.

 

Appendix

  

FOREX Closing Prices for November 22, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.13811 1.14326 1.13797 1.14016 0.0018
USD/JPY 113.052 113.218 112.866 112.924 -0.1300
GBP/USD 1.27736 1.2926 1.27679 1.28756 0.0101
USD/CHF 0.9945 0.99549 0.99199 0.99491 0.0005
USD/CAD 1.32296 1.32429 1.31796 1.31869 -0.0042
EUR/JPY 128.708 129.079 128.65 128.787 0.0730
GBP/JPY 144.433 145.924 144.236 145.416 0.9660
CHF/JPY 113.651 113.86 113.428 113.45 -0.2240
AUD/JPY 82.068 82.227 81.666 81.897 -0.1930
EUR/GBP 0.89091 0.8921 0.8839 0.88529 -0.0056
EUR/CHF 1.13204 1.13552 1.1317 1.13442 0.0023
GBP/CHF 1.27061 1.28313 1.26952 1.28177 0.0113

 

  

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1324 1.1352 1.1377 1.1405 1.1430 1.1458 1.1482
USD/JPY 112.44 112.65 112.79 113.00 113.14 113.35 113.49
GBP/USD 1.2629 1.2698 1.2787 1.2857 1.2945 1.3015 1.3103
USD/CHF 0.9893 0.9906 0.9928 0.9941 0.9963 0.9976 0.9998
USD/CAD 1.3100 1.3140 1.3163 1.3203 1.3227 1.3266 1.3290
EUR/JPY 128.17 128.41 128.60 128.84 129.03 129.27 129.46
GBP/JPY 142.77 143.50 144.46 145.19 146.15 146.88 147.84
CHF/JPY 112.87 113.15 113.30 113.58 113.73 114.01 114.16
AUD/JPY 81.07 81.37 81.63 81.93 82.19 82.49 82.76
EUR/GBP 0.8739 0.8789 0.8821 0.8871 0.8903 0.8953 0.8985
EUR/CHF 1.1284 1.1301 1.1322 1.1339 1.1361 1.1377 1.1399
GBP/CHF 1.2595 1.2645 1.2732 1.2781 1.2868 1.2918 1.3004

 

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

20 Nov 2018

FOREX Newsletter

FOREX Newsletter

November 20, 2018
 

 

Pulse of the Market

·      The U.S Dollar fell to fresh lows against the Euro, Swiss Franc, and Japanese Yen

·      The NAHB housing market index failed to rebound like economists anticipated

·      A weaker than expected Eurozone current account balance failed to stop the euro from rising

·      Sterling bulls put up a fight as the currency trades higher for the second day in a row

It is a holiday week in the United States but yesterday’s moves in forex shows how important it is to not mistake less participation with consolidation. The U.S Dollar fell to fresh lows against the Euro, Swiss Franc, and Japanese Yen as stocks resumed their slide. The forex market will trade continuously but equity and bond markets in the U.S will be closed on Thursday with half days for both on Friday. Currencies actually have a history of breaking out or reaching new milestones the week of Thanksgiving. Just take a look at the charts below. Last year, EUR/USD and GBP/USD hit a 1 month high Thanksgiving Day while USD/JPY fell to a 2 month low the day before Thanksgiving. In 2016, the EUR/USD dropped to an 11 month low the week of Thanksgiving while USD/JPY rose to a 7 month high. There was no meaningful movement in sterling that year. In 2015, EUR/USD and GBP/USD fell to a 7-month low the week of Thanksgiving as USD/JPY consolidated. Fundamentally, there’s not much on the U.S calendar this week and it seems like any weakness in second tier reports is being used as an excuse to continue selling dollars. Yesterday, the NAHB housing market index failed to rebound like economists anticipated and this was enough to send the dollar spiraling lower. With the momentum skewed to the downside, investors completely ignored Fed President and FOMC voter Williams’ positive outlook – he described the economy as doing very well with job growth good. Today’s housing starts and building permits reports are not expected to alter the dollar’s trend. Meanwhile a weaker than expected Eurozone current account balance failed to stop the Euro from rising. Not only did EUR/USD end Friday above the 20-day SMA for the first time since September but it’s now also trading above the 200-SMA on the 4 hour, something that it hasn’t done in 2 months. Of all the regions in the world, the Eurozone and Canada have the most important economic reports scheduled for release this week and they are all due on Friday. Recent evidence suggests that the Eurozone economy is slowing and there’s a very good chance the PMIs will confirm that. Sterling bulls are putting up a fight as the currency trades higher for the second day in a row. The focus is Brexit – Prime Minister May is still working on getting a deal approved by Parliament while Tory MPs are focused on getting enough letters submitted for a no confidence vote. There will be intensive discussions this week according to May and its unlikely that they will amount to anything.

 

Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
00:30 RBA Meeting Minutes (NOV 6) Medium      
07:00 German Producer Price Index (YoY) (OCT) Low   3.3% 3.2%
08:20 RBA’s Lowe gives speech in Melbourne High      
10:00 BOE’s Carney, Haldane, Cunliffe and Saunders Testify in London High      
13:30 U.S Housing Starts (MoM) (OCT) Medium   2.4% -5.3%
13:30 U.S Building Permits (MoM) (OCT) Medium   -0.8% -0.6%
18:00 Bank of Canada’s Wilkins Speech in Montreal Low      
23:30 Australia Westpac Leading Index (MoM) (OCT) Medium     -0.1%

 

Euro

The single currency traded higher. On the release front, there were no major events on the schedule. The Eurozone’s current surplus dropped sharply to EUR 16.9 billion, short of the forecast of EUR 24.2 billion. This marked the smallest surplus since July 2014. Today, the Eurozone releases PPI and the U.S publishes building permits and housing starts. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1392 and a high of 1.1463 before closing the day around 1.1452 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen pair posted slight losses yesterday. On the release front, Japan’s trade surplus rose to JPY 0.30 trillion, lower than the estimate of JPY 0.48 trillion. There are no major U.S. events on the schedule. The Bank of Japan has no plans to alter its ultra-accommodative monetary policy, as inflation remains well below the BoJ target of around 2 percent. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 112.40 and a high of 112.85 before closing the day around 112.53 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound edged higher against the U.S Dollar and the majority of its other peers at the start of this week’s session as a defiant Theresa May pushes ahead with her controversial Brexit plan. Mrs. May promoted the deal by outlining how it will allow the UK to control immigration and lead to migration becoming more skills-based. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.2792 and a high of 1.2882 before closing the day at 1.2849 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar edged lower against its U.S counterpart yesterday, straying close to the nearly four-month low touched last week, as oil prices slipped and global risk appetite remained in check. The price of oil, one of Canada’s major exports, fell by about 1 per cent in yesterday’s session, snapping a three-day streak of gains.  Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.3139 and a high of 1.3199 before closing the day at 1.3168 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar was under pressure to start the new trading week yesterday, pulling back from multi-month highs struck on Friday. Renewed trade tensions between the United States and China are behind the latest selloff, helping to partially offset more cautious language from leading U.S Federal Reserve officials. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7275 and a high of 0.7323 before closing the day at 0.7290 in the New York session.

 

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is issuing a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 49 and lies below the neutral zone. In general, the pair has gained 0.04%.

 

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish tone and MACD is indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 40 reading and lies below the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.14%.

 

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is also indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 56 reading and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.84%.

 

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and below 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bearish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 62 and lies above the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has gained 0.16%.

  

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading above 14 and below 50, 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish stance and MACD is also indicating a bearish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 39 and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.48%.

 

Appendix

  

FOREX Closing Prices for November 19, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.14149 1.14631 1.13926 1.14528 0.0036
USD/JPY 112.823 112.856 112.402 112.535 -0.3120
GBP/USD 1.28355 1.28822 1.27921 1.28493 0.0019
USD/CHF 0.99959 1.00053 0.99226 0.99337 -0.0061
USD/CAD 1.31539 1.31997 1.31391 1.31681 0.0018
EUR/JPY 128.804 129.044 128.443 128.898 0.0490
GBP/JPY 144.833 145.292 144.269 144.6 -0.2040
CHF/JPY 112.836 113.294 112.607 113.252 0.3770
AUD/JPY 82.502 82.591 81.841 82.064 -0.6930
EUR/GBP 0.88917 0.89308 0.88654 0.89105 0.0014
EUR/CHF 1.14166 1.1421 1.13684 1.13778 -0.0034
GBP/CHF 1.28334 1.28663 1.27413 1.27639 -0.0062

  

 

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1339 1.1366 1.1409 1.1436 1.1480 1.1507 1.1550
USD/JPY 111.89 112.14 112.34 112.60 112.79 113.05 113.25
GBP/USD 1.2710 1.2751 1.2800 1.2841 1.2890 1.2931 1.2980
USD/CHF 0.9820 0.9871 0.9902 0.9954 0.9985 1.0037 1.0068
USD/CAD 1.3078 1.3108 1.3138 1.3169 1.3199 1.3230 1.3259
EUR/JPY 127.95 128.19 128.55 128.80 129.15 129.40 129.75
GBP/JPY 143.13 143.70 144.15 144.72 145.17 145.74 146.19
CHF/JPY 112.12 112.36 112.81 113.05 113.50 113.74 114.18
AUD/JPY 80.99 81.42 81.74 82.17 82.49 82.92 83.24
EUR/GBP 0.8808 0.8837 0.8874 0.8902 0.8939 0.8968 0.9004
EUR/CHF 1.1305 1.1336 1.1357 1.1389 1.1410 1.1442 1.1462
GBP/CHF 1.2590 1.2666 1.2715 1.2791 1.2840 1.2916 1.2965

 

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.