07 Dec 2018

FOREX Newsletter

FOREX Newsletter

December 07, 2018

 

Pulse of the Market

·      The U.S Dollar weakened against major peers yesterday as U.S Treasury yields tumbled

·      Market sentiment was dampened by disappointing ADP payrolls data and higher jobless claims

·      Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz said the economy was weaker than forecast

·      The Australian Dollar slipped for a third straight day on fears of renewed US-China trade tensions

The U.S Dollar was lower yesterday as the arrest of a Huawei executive spooked investors and disappointing jobs data dampened sentiment. The U.S Dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of six major currencies, fell 0.46% to 96.56. Meng Wanzhou, the chief financial officer at the Chinese smartphone company Huawei was arrested in Canada on an extradition request by the U.S, which had been investigating whether or not she violated sanctions against Iran. The arrest happened just one week after President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping agreed to a 90-day trade truce. Investors fear it could derail any potential trade talks between the two countries. Japanese Yen gained after the news as the Yen tends to benefit during geopolitical or financial stress as Japan is the world’s biggest creditor nation and there is an assumption that Japanese investors will repatriate funds should a crisis materialize. Market sentiment was also dampened by disappointing ADP payrolls data and higher than expected jobless claims. Data showed private employers hired fewer workers than expected in November, pointing to a moderation in the pace of job growth. The U.S trade deficit jumped to a 10-year high in October as soybean exports dropped further and imports of consumer goods rose to a record high, suggesting the Trump administration’s tariff-related measures to shrink the trade gap likely have been ineffective. Sterling was 0.42 percent higher on the day even as worry over how a British Parliament vote on Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit deal next week remained in focus. The Canadian dollar fell against its U.S counterpart to a nearly 18-month low, as Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz said the economy was weaker than forecast and predicted low oil prices would cut growth. Poloz, speaking a day after the central bank kept interest rates on hold, repeated that more tightening would be needed.

 

Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
00:00 Japan Labor Cash Earnings (YoY) (OCT) Medium   1.0% 1.1%
05:00 Japan Leading Index CI (OCT) Medium   104.9 104.3
07:00 German Industrial Production n.s.a. and w.d.a. (YoY) (OCT) Medium   2.1% 0.8%
09:30 U.K BoE/TNS Inflation Next 12 Mths (NOV) High     3.0%
10:00 Euro-Zone Government Expenditure (QoQ) (3Q) Medium   0.3% 0.4%
10:00 Euro-Zone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY) (3Q) Medium   1.7% 1.7%
13:30 Canada Unemployment Rate (NOV) High   5.8% 5.8%
13:30 Canada Net Change in Employment (NOV) High   10.0k 11.2k
13:30 U.S Change in Non-farm Payrolls (NOV) High   198k 250k
13:30 U.S Change in Private Payrolls (NOV) Medium   200k 246k
13:30 U.S Unemployment Rate (NOV) High   3.7% 3.7%
13:30 U.S Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (NOV) Medium   3.1% 3.1%
15:00 U.S U. of Mich. Sentiment (DEC) High   97 97.5
18:00 Baker Hughes U.S Rig Count (DEC 7) Medium     1076
20:00 U.S Consumer Credit (OCT) Medium   $15.000b $10.923b

Euro

The single currency gained yesterday against the U.S Dollar as the European Commission has adopted a recommendation to promote the wider use of the euro in international energy agreements and transactions. The aim is to strengthen the role of the single currency on the international financial system. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1319 and a high of 1.1411 before closing the day around 1.1376 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen pair weakened yesterday as U.S Treasury yields tumbled and traders scaled back expectations on the number of rate hikes the Federal Reserve would implement amid weakening economic data and heightened market volatility. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield hit a three-month trough of 2.845 percent. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 112.21 and a high of 113.18 before closing the day around 112.65 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound posted gains in yesterday’s session. There were no major indicators in the U.K. In the U.S, job employment numbers were soft. ADP nonfarm payrolls plunged to 179 thousand, well off the estimate of 196 thousand. This was the lowest level since May. Unemployment claims edged lower to 231 thousand. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.2697 and a high of 1.2808 before closing the day at 1.2780 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar fell against its U.S counterpart yesterday to a nearly 18-month low, as Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz said the economy was weaker than forecast and predicted low oil prices would cut growth. Poloz’s comments were likely to reinforce market expectations that the pace of future rate hikes will ease off.  Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.3352 and a high of 1.3442 before closing the day at 1.3380 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar slipped for a third straight session as fears of renewed US-China trade tensions spooked stock markets, while investors toyed with the idea of possible rate cuts at home. Australian two-year bond yields dived to their lowest in nine months at 1.93 per cent. Yesterday’s helping of domestic data did nothing to alter the mood Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7189 and a high of 0.7272 before closing the day at 0.7221 in the New York session.

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is issuing a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 45 and lies below the neutral zone. In general, the pair has lost 0.19%.

 

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish tone and MACD is also indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 41 reading and lies below the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.06%.

 

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 44 reading and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.91%.

  

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and below 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bearish tone and MACD is issuing a bullish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 57 and lies above the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.13%.

 

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish stance and MACD is also indicating a bearish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 38 and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.10%.

 

Appendix

  

FOREX Closing Prices for December 06, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.13428 1.14112 1.13196 1.13761 0.0033
USD/JPY 113.183 113.189 112.213 112.655 -0.5200
GBP/USD 1.27316 1.28084 1.26977 1.27802 0.0049
USD/CHF 0.99751 0.99882 0.98927 0.99262 -0.0049
USD/CAD 1.33545 1.34423 1.3352 1.33802 0.0028
EUR/JPY 128.386 128.422 127.649 128.15 -0.2430
GBP/JPY 144.126 144.144 143.225 144.022 -0.0870
CHF/JPY 113.434 113.481 112.872 113.457 0.0350
AUD/JPY 82.24 82.285 80.899 81.492 -0.7490
EUR/GBP 0.89069 0.89259 0.88849 0.88958 -0.0012
EUR/CHF 1.13147 1.13199 1.12786 1.12929 -0.0023
GBP/CHF 1.27011 1.2718 1.26481 1.2689 -0.0013

 

 

 

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1235 1.1277 1.1327 1.1369 1.1418 1.1461 1.1510
USD/JPY 111.21 111.71 112.18 112.69 113.16 113.66 114.13
GBP/USD 1.2605 1.2651 1.2716 1.2762 1.2827 1.2873 1.2937
USD/CHF 0.9788 0.9840 0.9883 0.9936 0.9979 1.0031 1.0074
USD/CAD 1.3250 1.3301 1.3341 1.3392 1.3431 1.3482 1.3521
EUR/JPY 126.95 127.30 127.73 128.07 128.50 128.85 129.27
GBP/JPY 142.53 142.88 143.45 143.80 144.37 144.72 145.29
CHF/JPY 112.45 112.66 113.06 113.27 113.67 113.88 114.28
AUD/JPY 79.45 80.17 80.83 81.56 82.22 82.94 83.60
EUR/GBP 0.8838 0.8861 0.8879 0.8902 0.8920 0.8943 0.8961
EUR/CHF 1.1233 1.1256 1.1274 1.1297 1.1316 1.1338 1.1357
GBP/CHF 1.2582 1.2615 1.2652 1.2685 1.2722 1.2755 1.2792

 

 

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

 

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

07 Dec 2018

Daily Market View

Daily Market View

Friday, December 07, 2018
          U.S Stock Market

 

DJIA S & P 500 NASDAQ
24907 2691.50 6825.75
-1.57% -1.41% -0.61%

A rout on Wall Street deepened yesterday after news of the arrest of a top executive at Chinese telecommunications giant Huawei stoked fears it could hinder progress in U.S.-China trade talks. The Dow dropped more than 600 points, or 2.4 percent, in early trading. The decline represents a continuation of Tuesday’s 800-point plunge in the blue-chip index before trading was closed Wednesday in observance of a national day of mourning for former President George H.W. Bush. Other indices also lost ground yesterday. The S&P 500 index fell more than 1 percent, while the tech-heavy NASDAQ index slipped 0.8 percent. The news of Huawei CFO Meng Wanzhou’s arrest sent shares sharply lower on fears of rising tensions between China and the U.S. The incident heightens concerns that the trade truce between President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping won’t hold, pushing the two economic powers into a trade war. Meanwhile, oil prices dropped as OPEC countries gathered yesterday for a two-day meeting.

 

 

Major Economic Releases for Today
Period Event GMT Forecast Previous

nov

BoE/TNS Inflation Next 12 Mths 09:30   3.0%

3Q

Euro-Zone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY) 10:00 1.7% 1.7%

nov

Canada Unemployment Rate 13:30 5.8% 5.8%

nov

Canada Net Change in Employment 13:30 10.0k 11.2k

nov

U.S Change in Non-farm Payrolls 13:30 198k 250k

nov

U.S Unemployment Rate 13:30 3.7% 3.7%

nov

U.S Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) 13:30 3.1% 3.1%

dec

U.S U. of Mich. Sentiment 15:00 97 97.5

oct

U.S Consumer Credit 20:00 $15.000b $10.923b
Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.32%. The best performers of the session on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were Cisco Systems Inc., which rose 2.20% or 1.04 points to trade at 48.39 at the close. Meanwhile, International Business Machines added 1.90% or 2.31 points to end at 123.91 and Visa Inc. was up 1.74% or 2.41 points to 141.05 in late trade. The worst performers of the session were Boeing Co, which fell 3.09% or 10.60 points to trade at 331.90 at the close. JPMorgan Chase & Co declined 1.90% or 2.04 points to end at 105.19 and Exxon Mobil Corp was down 1.31% or 1.04 points to 78.39.

NASDAQ 100

The NASDAQ index gained 0.42%. The top performers on the NASDAQ were TheStreet Inc. which rose 35.53% to 2.060, Uxin Ltd which was up 31.47% to settle at 3.76 and Remark Holdings Inc. which gained 31.39% to close at 1.800. The worst performers were Conatus Pharmaceuticals Inc. which was down 56.89% to 1.940 in late trade, Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp which lost 25.36% to settle at 3.150 and Hexindai Inc. which was down 25.33% to 2.24 at the close.

Oil

Oil prices tumbled about 3 percent yesterday as OPEC reportedly agreed to cut production, but ended its closely-watched meeting without a decision on how much crude the cartel will take off the market. OPEC agreed in principle to cut production during a meeting at its headquarters in Vienna, Austria yesterday, two sources told Reuters. However, the cartel delayed a decision on specific quotas until it consults Russia today. OPEC began capping supply in partnership with Russia and several other nations last year in order to end a punishing downturn in oil prices. However, Moscow has not yet specified how much it will cut production during the fresh round of supply caps that is now under consideration. U.S crude oil ended yesterday’s session down $1.40, or 2.7 percent, at $51.49, bouncing from a session low of $50.08. Oil prices briefly pared losses after government data showed U.S crude stockpiles fell by 7.3 million barrels in the week through Nov. 30. Oil prices have fallen more than 30 percent over the last two months.

 

 

Precious and Base Metals

Gold prices edged lower yesterday in range-bound trade as investors booked profits and the dollar strengthened, while palladium fell from a record high hit in the previous session. Spot gold fell 0.2 percent to $1,235.57 per ounce, while U.S gold futures were 0.1 percent lower at $1,240.8 per ounce. Gold has been near key levels of $1,240, so there might be some technical-level profit-taking. A meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and U.S nonfarm payroll data expected on Friday are keeping gold investors on guard. U.S Federal Reserve policymakers are to gather at a Dec. 18-19 meeting, at which the central bank is widely expected to raise interest rates. Although a rate hike is already priced in, markets will be closely watching the meeting for clues on rate-hike timings in 2019. The dollar held steady as a spike in risk aversion pressured equities and U.S. Treasury yields. The spread between the two-year and five-year Treasury yields inverted this week and the two-year/10-year spread was at its flattest in more than a decade amid a sharp fall in long-term rates. A yield curve inversion indicates higher borrowing cost in short term, so for safe-haven assets in the longer run it’s going to be very positive. Meanwhile, palladium prices stayed near gold’s after outshining the yellow metal for the first time since 2002 on Wednesday, with prices soaring by around 50 percent in less than four months to record levels. Spot palladium dropped 2.3 percent to $1,215.43 per ounce, still hovering near its record high hit in the previous session. The market now awaits today’s U.S nonfarm payrolls data for November, which is expected to show unemployment remains at 3.7 percent. Investors are seen adopting a cautious stance ahead of the U.S jobs report which could offer insight over the health of the U.S labor force. Amongst other metals, silver fell 0.9 percent to $14.37 per ounce.

 

Traditional Agricultures

Soybean futures fell for the first time in five sessions yesterday. Corn followed soybeans lower, although declines were largely offset by solid export demand. Wheat was pressured by muted export demand as rival suppliers such as Russia continue to challenge U.S grain in global markets.

 

Futures Settlement Price Thursday, December 06, 2018
Instrument Contract Open High Low Settlement Net Change
DJIA DJM18 25132 25135 24253 24907 -249
S & P 500 SPM18 2713 2713.75 2621 2691.5 -26.25
NASDAQ 100 NDM18 6834.25 6853.75 6629.75 6825.75 -22.5
Hang Seng HSH18 26487 26487 26001 26154 -605
Nikkei 225 NKH18 21740 21745 21220 21390 -490
FTSE 100 FTH18 6859 6879 6669.5 6783 -132
Gold GCJ18 1243.5 1249.6 1239.8 1242.8 0.4
Silver SIK18 1457 1457.5 1440.5 1452.5 -3.5
Copper HGK18 277.05 277.15 270.8 274.8 -2.4
Crude Oil CLK18 52.9 53.26 50.05 51.68 -1.21
Wheat WK18 517.75 517.75 509.75 515.25 -2.25
Soybeans SK18 910.25 911.75 896.5 909 -4.25
Corn CK18 383.75 384.25 379.75 382.5 -1.5

 

Daily Swings  (The Pivot Levels)
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
DJM18 23513 23883 24395 24765 25277 25647 26159
SPM18 2544.33 2582.67 2637.08 2675.42 2729.83 2768.17 2822.58
NDM18 6461.75 6545.75 6685.75 6769.75 6909.75 6993.75 7133.75
HSH18 25455 25728 25941 26214 26427 26700 26913
NKH18 20633 20927 21158 21452 21683 21977 22208
FTH18 6465.83 6567.67 6675.33 6777.17 6884.83 6986.67 7094.33
GCJ18 1228.73 1234.27 1238.53 1244.07 1248.33 1253.87 1258.13
SIK18 1425.83 1433.17 1442.83 1450.17 1459.83 1467.17 1476.83
HGK18 265.00 267.90 271.35 274.25 277.70 280.60 284.05
CLK18 46.86 48.45 50.07 51.66 53.28 54.87 56.49
WK18 502.75 506.25 510.75 514.25 518.75 522.25 526.75
SK18 884.50 890.50 899.75 905.75 915.00 921.00 930.25
CK18 375.58 377.67 380.08 382.17 384.58 386.67 389.08

 

 Source: – News & Quotes (Courtesy:  Reuters)                                                                    

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

 

 

 

 

06 Dec 2018

FOREX Newsletter

FOREX Newsletter

December 06, 2018

 

Pulse of the Market

·      Resurgent fears over the U.S-China trade war sapped demand for riskier assets

·      The Pound remained on the back foot as debate on the government’s Brexit plan continued

·      The Canadian dollar weakened to one-and-a-half-year low against its U.S counterpart

·      Australia’s Q/Q growth fell to 0.3% while domestic demand came in weak

The Dollar was little changed against a currency basket yesterday as resurgent fears over the U.S-China trade war sapped demand for riskier assets, while the pound remained on the back foot as a parliamentary debate on the government’s Brexit plan continued. Wall Street slumped on Tuesday after a series of tweets by U.S President Donald Trump dented investor confidence that a full resolution to the U.S.-China trade conflict will be reached during a 90-day trade truce. Trump threatened to impose higher tariffs on China soon unless they make concessions, exacerbating fears over the outlook for global growth. Worries about U.S bond markets signaling an impending recession also weighed on market sentiment. The U.S dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of six major currencies, was at 96.93. Trading volumes were low, with U.S markets closed for a national day of mourning for President George H. W. Bush. Major currencies retraced some of Tuesday’s action today, as investors processed President Donald Trump’s latest comments on China trade. Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar dropped to a six-month low versus its U.S rival, following a Bank of Canada policy update. While it was expected for the BOC to keep its benchmark interest rates unchanged — with the overnight rate at 1.75% — the central bank’s comments on an anticipated loss of economic momentum in the fourth quarter, as well as weaker oil prices threw the Canadian dollar also referred to colloquially as the loonie, into a tailspin. Reduced business investment on the back of trade tensions over the summer, impacted the outlook for the last three months of the year, the BOC said. U.S-China trade relations remained front and center today after tweets by President Donald Trump on Tuesday caused some turbulence. The Australian dollar fell significantly, after recent ABS figures revealed Australia’s Gross Domestic Product slowed in September, missing expectations.

 

Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
00:30 Australia Trade Balance (OCT) Medium   A$3000m A$3017m
07:00 German Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) (OCT) Medium   -3.1% -2.2%
12:30 U.S Challenger Job Cuts (YoY) (NOV) Low     153.6%
13:15 U.S ADP Employment Change (NOV) Medium   195k 227k
13:30 U.S Trade Balance (OCT) Medium   -$55.0b -$54.0b
13:30 U.S Initial Jobless Claims (DEC 1) Medium   225k 234k
13:30 U.S Continuing Claims (NOV 24) Medium   1695k 1710k
15:00 Canada Ivey Purchasing Managers Index s.a. (NOV) Low     61.8
15:00 U.S ISM Non-Manufacturing/Services Composite (NOV) High   59 60.3
15:00 U.S Factory Orders (OCT) Medium   -2.0% 0.7%
15:00 U.S Durable Goods Orders (OCT) Medium   -2.4% -4.4%
16:00 DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (NOV 30) Medium     3577k
23:30 Japan Overall Household Spending (YoY) (OCT) Medium   1.1% -1.6%
23:45 U.S Powell Gives Brief Welcome Remarks at Housing Conference High      

Euro

The single currency ended the day almost unchanged after falling earlier in the session. The EU commission presented its plan to reduce the dollar’s overwhelming dominance of the global economy and to strengthen the role of the euro, particularly for energy transactions. European capitals are increasingly frustrated with the global dominance of the dollar. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1309 and a high of 1.1359 before closing the day around 1.1343 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen lost ground yesterday. There were no data indicators in Japan or the U.S. Today, the focus will be on employment data will be in focus, with the release of ADP nonfarm payrolls and unemployment claims. We’ll also get a look at ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI. Japan will release household spending and average cash earnings. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 112.96 and a high of 113.22 before closing the day around 113.17 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound rose against the Dollar and the euro yesterday as traders priced in an increased chance of the UK staying in the EU following a disastrous day for the prime minister. An unprecedented string of three defeats for the government and a key decision on Brexit from Europe’s top court sent sterling up. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.2670 and a high of 1.2796 before closing the day at 1.2731 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar weakened to one-and-a-half-year low against its U.S counterpart yesterday as investors slashed expectations for further interest rate hikes from the Bank of Canada after a dovish interest rate announcement from the central bank. The Bank of Canada kept its benchmark interest rate on hold at 1.75 per cent. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.3250 and a high of 1.3397 before closing the day at 1.3352 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar fell significantly, after recent ABS figures revealed Australia’s Gross Domestic Product slowed in September, missing expectations. Q/Q growth fell to 0.3%, and was expected to come in at 0.6%, while domestic demand came in weak. The Australian dollar against the greenback crashed upon the news. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7258 and a high of 0.7354 before closing the day at 0.7273 in the New York session.

 

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is issuing a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 47 and lies below the neutral zone. In general, the pair has gained 0.38%.

 

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish tone and MACD is also indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 43 reading and lies below the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has gained 0.51%.

  

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 52 reading and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.58%.

  

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and below 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 56 and lies above the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.10%.

  

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish stance and MACD is also indicating a bearish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 40 and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.16%.

 

Appendix

  

FOREX Closing Prices for December 05, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.1341 1.13599 1.13095 1.13432 0.0002
USD/JPY 112.75 113.223 112.963 113.175 0.4150
GBP/USD 1.27151 1.27964 1.26703 1.27317 0.0017
USD/CHF 0.99718 1.00066 0.99686 0.99752 0.0003
USD/CAD 1.32612 1.3397 1.32504 1.33527 0.0093
EUR/JPY 127.887 128.468 127.766 128.393 0.4850
GBP/JPY 143.385 144.515 143.244 144.109 0.7280
CHF/JPY 113.037 113.469 112.915 113.422 0.3860
AUD/JPY 82.72 82.961 82.14 82.241 -0.4830
EUR/GBP 0.8921 0.893 0.88728 0.89077 -0.0009
EUR/CHF 1.13108 1.1329 1.13092 1.13162 0.0004
GBP/CHF 1.26791 1.27601 1.26702 1.27016 0.0020

 

 

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1265 1.1287 1.1315 1.1338 1.1366 1.1388 1.1416
USD/JPY 112.76 112.86 113.02 113.12 113.28 113.38 113.54
GBP/USD 1.2543 1.2607 1.2669 1.2733 1.2795 1.2859 1.2921
USD/CHF 0.9922 0.9945 0.9960 0.9983 0.9998 1.0021 1.0036
USD/CAD 1.3123 1.3187 1.3270 1.3333 1.3416 1.3480 1.3563
EUR/JPY 127.25 127.51 127.95 128.21 128.65 128.91 129.35
GBP/JPY 142.13 142.69 143.40 143.96 144.67 145.23 145.94
CHF/JPY 112.51 112.71 113.07 113.27 113.62 113.82 114.18
AUD/JPY 81.11 81.63 81.93 82.45 82.75 83.27 83.58
EUR/GBP 0.8820 0.8846 0.8877 0.8904 0.8934 0.8961 0.8991
EUR/CHF 1.1287 1.1298 1.1307 1.1318 1.1327 1.1338 1.1347
GBP/CHF 1.2571 1.2621 1.2661 1.2711 1.2751 1.2801 1.2841

 

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

06 Dec 2018

Daily Market View

Daily Market View

Thursday, December 06, 2018
          U.S Stock Market

 

DJIA S & P 500 NASDAQ
25156 2717.75 6848.25
+0.10% +0.24% +0.40%

U.S stock futures closed higher yesterday, pointing to a slight rebound from the steep losses seen in regular trading. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures climbed 110 points, indicating a gain of 113.93 points. S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 futures also pointed to slight gains. U.S stock futures closed earlier on Tuesday out of respect for former President George H.W. Bush’s funeral. The U.S stock market was also closed yesterday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 799.36 points on Tuesday, while the S&P 500 dropped more than 3 percent. The NASDAQA, meanwhile, fell 3.8 percent to close in correction territory. The yield on the three-year Treasury note surpassed its five-year counterpart on Monday. When a so-called yield curve inversion happens — short-term yields trading above longer-term rates — a recession could follow, though it is often years away after the signal triggers. Stocks began falling to their lows of the day after Jeffrey Gundlach, CEO of Doubleline Capital, told Reuters this inversion signals that the economy “is poised to weaken.”

 

 

Major Economic Releases for Today
Period Event GMT Forecast Previous

nov

U.S Challenger Job Cuts (YoY) 12:30   153.6%

oct

U.S Trade Balance 13:30 -$55.0b -$54.0b

dec

U.S Initial Jobless Claims 13:30 225k 234k

nov

U.S Continuing Claims 13:30 1695k 1710k

nov

U.S ISM Non-Manufacturing/Services Composite 15:00 59 60.3

oct

U.S Factory Orders 15:00 -2.0% 0.7%

oct

U.S Durable Goods Orders 15:00 -2.4% -4.4%

nov

DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories 16:00   3577k

 

U.S Powell Gives Brief Welcome Remarks at Housing Conference 23:45    
Dow Jones Industrial Average

Dow Jones futures fell earlier in the session, after the arrest of the CFO of Chinese telecom gear giant Huawei. Canada’s arrest, at the behest of the U.S, enraged China. Investors can find parallels to the current choppy stock market rally from this past spring and summer. But there are key differences that aren’t encouraging. Long-term support lines are acting as resistance. Stock market rallies are short-lived, while the stock market struggles to make higher highs. Apple and FANG stocks Facebook, Amazon.com, Netflix and Google parent Alphabet are all in worse shape than earlier this year.

 

NASDAQ 100

The tech-heavy NASDAQ index fell nearly 4 percent on Tuesday, with tech stocks like Apple, Amazon, Alphabet and Facebook weighing most heavily. The losses extend pain periods for Apple, which has seen downturn in recent weeks, and Facebook, which is suffering a down year on the heels of several scandals.

Oil

Oil prices edged higher yesterday as global investors’ awaited clarity on a possible, but far-from-assured, output cut by major producers gathering in Vienna. The Joint OPEC-Non-OPEC Ministerial Monitoring Committee, or JMMC, which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries member Saudi Arabia and nonmember Russia, met yesterday. It recommended a production cut from the September-October output levels, Oman’s oil minister told reporters, according to Dow Jones. The minister also said Russia agreed on the need for an output cut. OPEC will hold its official meeting today, with another key meeting between the group’s members and nonmember allies to be held Friday. Saudi Arabia’s oil minister had cast fresh doubt on whether that production-cut agreement would be reached by OPEC, plus Russia and other producers, in Vienna today, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing news reports from the region. West Texas Intermediate crude for January delivery tacked on 15 cents, or 0.3%, at $53.40 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract tumbled 22% in November, the biggest monthly fall since October 2008.

 

 

Precious and Base Metals

Gold prices edged lower yesterday, a day after hitting their highest level in more than five weeks, as comments from a Federal Reserve official kept alive the prospect of gradually rising U.S interest rates. Meanwhile, palladium hit a new record high of $1,263.44 an ounce, widening its premium over gold to around $25, helped by a sustained supply deficit and increased speculative interest. It was 2.1 percent higher at $1,259.05 per ounce. Spot gold was down 0.1 percent at $1,237.31 per ounce, after hitting its highest since Oct. 26 at $1,241.86 on Tuesday. U.S gold futures were down 0.3 percent at $1,243.20 per ounce. The U.S Federal Reserve talking about the gradual increase in rates is going against some of the expectations that have been building up recently. The U.S central bank has increased interest rates three times this year but concerns about weaker growth have stoked bets that the Fed will end its tightening campaign sooner than previously thought. However, New York Fed President John Williams on Tuesday said the Federal Reserve should expect to continue raising interest rates “over the next year or so” even while it pays close attention to possible risks highlighted by financial markets. The central bank is widely expected to raise rates at its policy meeting on Dec. 18-19 and investors are keeping a close eye on signals for the future path of interest rates next year. Higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion. World stocks tumbled to one-week lows yesterday, as declines by long-dated U.S. bond yields and a renewal of trade concerns stoked fears of a downturn in the United States, the world’s biggest economy, and pressured the dollar. Gold prices have recovered about 7 percent from 19-month lows hit in mid-August. The momentum certainly appears to be with the bulls at the moment, especially if the dollar remains under pressure in the aftermath of the trade war truce. Spot silver was steady at$14.52 per ounce.

 

 

Traditional Agricultures

Soybeans inched lower, consolidating after multi-month highs this week as investors sought clues as to whether a truce between Washington and Beijing in their trade dispute would revive U.S soybean sales to China.

 

 

 

Futures Settlement Price Wednesday, December 05, 2018
Instrument Contract Open High Low Settlement Net Change
DJIA DJM18 25023 25188 25003 25156 110
S & P 500 SPM18 2699.5 2720.5 2698 2717.75 16
NASDAQ 100 NDM18 6795.5 6861.25 6791.75 6848.25 45.75
Hang Seng HSH18 26784 26942 26720 26759 -507
Nikkei 225 NKH18 21645 21975 21630 21880 -155
FTSE 100 FTH18 6965.5 6978 6908.5 6915 -25
Gold GCJ18 1243.8 1244.6 1238.75 1242.4 -1.2
Silver SIK18 1459.5 1461 1448 1456 -3
Copper HGK18 275.85 277.7 274.5 277.2 1.35
Crude Oil CLK18 52.56 54.4 52.12 52.89 0.33
Wheat WK18 521.25 521.75 513.25 517.5 -4.5
Soybeans SK18 909.75 916.25 908 913.25 2
Corn CK18 383 386.25 382.25 384 -0.25

 

 

Daily Swings  (The Pivot Levels)
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
DJM18 24858 24931 25043 25116 25228 25301 25413
SPM18 2681.17 2689.58 2703.67 2712.08 2726.17 2734.58 2748.67
NDM18 6736.75 6764.25 6806.25 6833.75 6875.75 6903.25 6945.25
HSH18 26450 26585 26672 26807 26894 27029 27116
NKH18 21337 21483 21682 21828 22027 22173 22372
FTH18 6820.17 6864.33 6889.67 6933.83 6959.17 7003.33 7028.67
GCJ18 1233.38 1236.07 1239.23 1241.92 1245.08 1247.77 1250.93
SIK18 1436.00 1442.00 1449.00 1455.00 1462.00 1468.00 1475.00
HGK18 272.03 273.27 275.23 276.47 278.43 279.67 281.63
CLK18 49.59 50.86 51.87 53.14 54.15 55.42 56.43
WK18 504.75 509.00 513.25 517.50 521.75 526.00 530.25
SK18 900.50 904.25 908.75 912.50 917.00 920.75 925.25
CK18 378.08 380.17 382.08 384.17 386.08 388.17 390.08

 

 Source: – News & Quotes (Courtesy:  Reuters)                                                                    

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

 

 

 

 

05 Dec 2018

FOREX Newsletter

FOREX Newsletter

December 05, 2018

 

Pulse of the Market

·      Safe-haven buying emerged after President Trump’s tweet raised fears that trade war was not over

·      Falling Treasuries were blamed for the leg lower in the greenback earlier in the session

·      The Pound Fell as Prime Minister Theresa May’s government was found in contempt of parliament

·      Goldman Sachs said it continued to recommend investors position for a “tactical bounce in USD/CAD

The U.S Dollar rose from lows against its rivals yesterday after the plunge in U.S Treasury yields stalled. Safe-haven buying emerged after President Donald Trump’s tweets raised fears that the trade war was not over. The U.S dollar index, which measures the greenback against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, fell by 0.11% to 96.86, but was above a session low of 96.31. Trump said in a tweet he was “Tariff Man,” reminding investors that he was not afraid to re-escalate trade tensions with China, scaling back optimism from a day earlier, prompting support for Treasuries and helping the greenback move off lows. Falling Treasuries were blamed for the leg lower in the greenback earlier in the session, as fears of an economic recession grew after short-dated Treasury rates rose above longer-dated rates, referred to as an inversion of the Treasury yield curve, a signal of a potential economic recession. Yields on two maturities at the front of the Treasury curve rose above longer-dated 5-year notes overnight Tuesday for the first time in more than a decade. The pound, meanwhile, reversed its gains from earlier after Prime Minister Theresa May’s government was found in contempt of parliament for refusing to release its full legal advice on Brexit. GBP/USD fell from a session high of $1.2839, which had followed hopes that Brexit could be canceled after a top European Officer said that UK should be able to unilaterally cancel its withdrawal from the EU. USD/CAD rose 0.45% to $1.3256 a day ahead of Bank of Canada’s interest rate decision, widely expected to remain unchanged at 1.75%. Ahead of the rate decision, Goldman Sachs said it continued to recommend investors position for a “tactical bounce in CAD vs. USD going into year-end,” citing expectations the Bank of Canada will continue to keep a January rate hike on the table. The markets were delighted with the results of a weekend meeting between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping at the G-20 summit.

 

Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
00:30 Nikkei Japan PMI Services (NOV) Medium     52.4
00:30 Australia Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (3Q) High   3.3% 3.4%
01:45 Caixin China PMI Services (NOV) Medium   50.8 50.8
08:55 Markit Germany Services PMI (NOV) Low   53.3 53.3
09:00 Markit Eurozone Services PMI (NOV) Low   53.1 53.1
09:30 Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI (NOV) Medium   52.5 52.2
10:00 Euro-Zone Retail Sales (YoY) (OCT) Medium   2.0% 0.8%
12:00 U.S MBA Mortgage Applications (NOV 30) Medium     5.5%
13:15 U.S ADP Employment Change (NOV) Medium   195k 227k
14:45 Markit US Services PMI (NOV) Low   54.4 54.4
15:00 Bank of Canada Rate Decision (DEC 5) High   1.75% 1.75%
15:00 U.S ISM Non-Manufacturing/Services Composite (NOV) High   59 60.3
15:30 DOE U.S Crude Oil Inventories (NOV 30) Medium     3577k
19:00 U.S Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book Medium      

 

Euro

The single currency traded sharply higher earlier in yesterday’s session but ended the day slightly lower. EU finance ministers agreed yesterday to give the euro zone ESM bailout fund new responsibilities, but delayed decisions on a euro zone budget and a deposit guarantee scheme after failing to reach an agreement. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1317 and a high of 1.1417 before closing the day around 1.1341 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen traded higher yesterday. The markets were delighted with the results of meeting between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping at the G-20 summit. Trump had threatened to raise tariffs on all Chinese products from 10 percent to 25 percent on December 1, but the Chinese convinced Trump to hold off on the tariffs until March 1. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 112.55 and a high of 113.64 before closing the day around 112.76 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound traded higher at the start of the session following an unexpected piece of legal advice. The advocate general of the European Court of Justice said earlier today that the British government has the unilateral right to withdraw its notice of intent to leave the European Union. However, GBP ended the day lower against the U.S Dollar. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.2656 and a high of 1.2837 before closing the day at 1.2714 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar edged higher in yesterday’s Asian trading hours, after sharp gains at the start of the week. On the release front today, the Bank of Canada is expected to maintain the benchmark rate at 1.75%. The Canadian dollar started the week with sharp gains after the U.S and China agreed to a truce in the tariff war. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.3161 and a high of 1.3264 before closing the day at 1.3259 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar has touched a multi-month peak in a knee jerk reaction to a pause in the Sino-US trade dispute, though there was plenty of caution about the prospects of a lasting peace. The White House said President Donald Trump told Chinese President Xi Jinping that he would not boost tariffs on US$200 billion of Chinese goods on January 1 if Beijing agreed to buy an unspecified amount of US goods. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7324 and a high of 0.7391 before closing the day at 0.7334 in the New York session.

 

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is issuing a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 43 and lies below the neutral zone. In general, the pair has lost 0.86%.

 

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish tone and MACD is also indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 38 reading and lies below the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.83%.

  

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 56 reading and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 1.03%.

 

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and below 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 59 and lies above the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.05%.

 

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish stance and MACD is also indicating a bearish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 37 and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.09%.

 

Appendix

  

FOREX Closing Prices for December 04, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.13523 1.14173 1.13171 1.13417 -0.0010
USD/JPY 113.626 113.642 112.557 112.76 -0.8790
GBP/USD 1.2723 1.28378 1.26566 1.27147 -0.0007
USD/CHF 0.99773 0.9989 0.99285 0.99726 -0.0005
USD/CAD 1.31966 1.32644 1.31616 1.32598 0.0064
EUR/JPY 128.992 129.018 127.596 127.908 -1.1080
GBP/JPY 144.58 144.734 142.817 143.381 -1.1960
CHF/JPY 113.833 113.859 112.838 113.036 -0.8210
AUD/JPY 83.606 83.635 82.536 82.724 -0.8620
EUR/GBP 0.89201 0.8943 0.88878 0.89165 -0.0004
EUR/CHF 1.13278 1.13462 1.13037 1.1312 -0.0015
GBP/CHF 1.26958 1.27546 1.2644 1.26816 -0.0012

 

 

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1200 1.1259 1.1300 1.1359 1.1400 1.1459 1.1501
USD/JPY 111.25 111.90 112.33 112.99 113.42 114.07 114.50
GBP/USD 1.2454 1.2555 1.2635 1.2736 1.2816 1.2918 1.2997
USD/CHF 0.9877 0.9903 0.9938 0.9963 0.9998 1.0024 1.0059
USD/CAD 1.3090 1.3126 1.3193 1.3229 1.3296 1.3331 1.3398
EUR/JPY 125.91 126.75 127.33 128.17 128.75 129.60 130.17
GBP/JPY 140.64 141.73 142.55 143.64 144.47 145.56 146.39
CHF/JPY 111.61 112.22 112.63 113.24 113.65 114.27 114.67
AUD/JPY 81.20 81.87 82.30 82.97 83.39 84.06 84.49
EUR/GBP 0.8833 0.8861 0.8889 0.8916 0.8944 0.8971 0.8999
EUR/CHF 1.1253 1.1278 1.1295 1.1321 1.1338 1.1363 1.1380
GBP/CHF 1.2522 1.2583 1.2632 1.2693 1.2743 1.2804 1.2853

 

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

05 Dec 2018

Daily Market View

Daily Market View

Wednesday, December 05, 2018
          U.S Stock Market

 

DJIA S & P 500 NASDAQ
25046 2701.75 6802.50
-3.10% -3.24% -3.80%

U.S stocks plunged, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbling almost 800 points, as a litany of concerns wiped out the rally in risk assets. Trade-sensitive shares sank as angst mounted that the U.S and China made no meaningful progress on the trade front this weekend. Financial shares got hammered as the yield curve continued to flatten, with the latest nudge from a hawkish comment by a Federal Reserve official. Losses accelerated and trading volumes in S&P 500 futures spiked after contracts for broke below their 200-day moving average. Adding to the risk aversion was news that U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May’s push to avoid a so-called “hard Brexit” may be at risk. President Donald Trump suggested Tuesday that he could extend a 90-day truce in his trade war with China, while his top White House economic adviser backtracked from the president’s announcement that Beijing had agreed to reduce tariffs on U.S.-made cars. Traders are even starting to bet that the Fed will cut interest rates as soon as 2020.

 

Major Economic Releases for Today
Period Event GMT Forecast Previous

nov

Nikkei Japan PMI Services 00:30 52.4

3Q

Australia Gross Domestic Product (YoY) 00:30 3.3% 3.4%

nov

Caixin China PMI Services 01:45 50.8 50.8

oct

Euro-Zone Retail Sales (YoY) 10:00 2.0% 0.8%

nov

U.S MBA Mortgage Applications 12:00 5.5%

nov

U.S ADP Employment Change 13:15 195k 227k

dec

Bank of Canada Rate Decision 15:00 1.75% 1.75%

nov

U.S ISM Non-Manufacturing/Services Composite 15:00 59 60.3

nov

DOE U.S Crude Oil Inventories 15:30 3577k
Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 3.10%. The best performers of the session on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were Procter & Gamble Company, which fell 0.01% or 0.01 points to trade at 93.31 at the close. Meanwhile, Verizon Communications Inc. fell 0.12% or 0.07 points to end at 58.09 and Johnson & Johnson was down 0.12% or 0.18 points to 146.03 in late trade. The worst performers of the session were Caterpillar Inc., which fell 6.93% or 9.63 points to trade at 129.32 at the close. Boeing Co declined 4.85% or 17.46 points to end at 342.50 and Intel Corporation was down 4.75% or 2.38 points to 47.75.

 

NASDAQ 100

The NASDAQ index lost 3.80%. The top performers on the NASDAQ Composite were Pernix Therapeutics Holdings Inc. which rose 41.63% to 0.575, American Electric Technologies Inc. which was up 37.96% to settle at 1.490 and Novelion Therapeutics Inc. which gained 32.65% to close at 1.300. The worst performers were Determine Inc. which was down 25.04% to 0.494 in late trade, ConforMIS Inc. which lost 22.46% to settle at 0.56 and Smaaash Entertainment Inc. which was down 19.64% to 2.67 at the close.

Oil

Oil prices pared gains in a volatile trade yesterday as fears flared that demand would stall due to a trade war between the U.S and China, and as Russia remained a stumbling block to a deal to cut global crude supply. U.S President made clear he would revert to tariffs on China if the two sides could not resolve their differences. The comments put a damper on market enthusiasm that drove oil about 4 percent higher on Monday after Trump and Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping agreed at a meeting of the Group of 20 industrialized nations to pause an escalating trade dispute. In Monday’s session, expectations of a production cut by the OPEC and its allies, when they meet on Thursday and Friday in Vienna, had also supported prices. OPEC and its allies are working towards a deal to reduce oil output by at least 1.3 million barrels per day, four sources said yesterday, adding that Russia’s resistance to a significant production cut was so far the main stumbling block.

 

Precious and Base Metals

Gold rose to its highest in more than five weeks yesterday as the dollar sagged after the United States and China agreed a 90-day pause on fresh trade tariffs, while palladium hit a record high, leaving it about $4 short of parity with bullion. Palladium rose more than 2 percent to $1,231.50 per ounce, after scaling an all-time high of $1,235. The market is structurally in a significant deficit, so there are clearly concerns about that. We’ve got a lot momentum and positive investor sentiment flowing into the market at the moment. The metal, used mainly used in emissions-reducing auto catalysts for vehicles, has gained about 48 percent since mid-August, but not all analysts think the price is justified. The high price premium on palladium is not justified in our opinion because car sales have been fairly weak on all key markets of late. U.S. tariffs have been threatened on imports of cars and car parts from the European Union. Meanwhile, spot gold rose for the second straight session, up 0.6 percent at $1,238.90. Prices touched $1,241.10 earlier in the session, their highest since Oct. 26. U.S. gold futures were up 0.4 percent at $1,244.70 per ounce. The dollar weakened against its major peers, pressured by a thaw in trade tensions between Washington and Beijing, making gold cheaper for holders of other currencies. Primarily it is the weaker dollar that is providing assistance and that will be the key driver in the short term. However, it is going to find it difficult to sustain the current rally unless there is even more dollar weakness, simply because the overall investor sentiment for riskier assets has improved and that would prove to be a drag in the short term. The temporary freeze on further hostilities in the trade war sparked a global rally in equity markets on Monday. Global trade tensions over the past few months have seen investors opt for the safety of the U.S currency rather than bullion, a traditional safe haven asset. Among other precious metals, spot silver rose 1 percent to $14.52 per ounce.

 

 

Traditional Agricultures

Soybeans were little changed yesterday as dealers awaited concrete indications that China will resume its huge imports of U.S soy halted by the trade war between the two countries. Corn and wheat are being undermined by the lack of strength in soybeans.

 

Futures Settlement Price Tuesday, December 04, 2018
Instrument Contract Open High Low Settlement Net Change
DJIA DJM18 25835 25837 25016 25046 -800
S & P 500 SPM18 2789.75 2790.25 2697 2701.75 -89.25
NASDAQ 100 NDM18 7054.25 7055 6788 6802.5 -256
Hang Seng HSH18 27108 27292 27037 27266 -15
Nikkei 225 NKH18 22590 22600 22015 22035 -570
FTSE 100 FTH18 7055 7098.5 6924.5 6940 -153
Gold GCJ18 1243.8 1244.4 1239.2 1240.2 -3.4
Silver SIK18 1459.5 1461 1449 1452 -7
Copper HGK18 275.85 276.95 275.5 276.1 0.25
Crude Oil CLK18 53.1 54.52 52.41 52.56 -0.49
Wheat WK18 521.25 521.75 519.5 520.25 -1.75
Soybeans SK18 903.25 912.5 899.25 911.25 5.75
Corn CK18 383 383.75 382.5 383.5 -0.75

 

Daily Swings  (The Pivot Levels)
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2
DJM18 23941 24479 24762 25300 25583 26121 26404
SPM18 2575.83 2636.42 2669.08 2729.67 2762.33 2822.92 2855.58
NDM18 6441.67 6614.83 6708.67 6881.83 6975.67 7148.83 7242.67
HSH18 26850 26943 27105 27198 27360 27453 27615
NKH18 21248 21632 21833 22217 22418 22802 23003
FTH18 6702.83 6813.67 6876.83 6987.67 7050.83 7161.67 7224.83
GCJ18 1232.93 1236.07 1238.13 1241.27 1243.33 1246.47 1248.53
SIK18 1435.00 1442.00 1447.00 1454.00 1459.00 1466.00 1471.00
HGK18 273.97 274.73 275.42 276.18 276.87 277.63 278.32
CLK18 49.70 51.05 51.81 53.16 53.92 55.27 56.03
WK18 517.00 518.25 519.25 520.50 521.50 522.75 523.75
SK18 889.58 894.42 902.83 907.67 916.08 920.92 929.33
CK18 381.50 382.00 382.75 383.25 384.00 384.50 385.25

 

 Source: – News & Quotes (Courtesy:  Reuters)                                                                    

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

 

 

 

 

30 Nov 2018

Daily Market View

Friday, November 29, 2018
          U.S Stock Market

 

DJIA S & P 500 NASDAQ
25388 2743.75 6911.75
-0.26% -0.33% -0.30%

U.S stocks traded lower yesterday as investors’ hopes of a trade deal between China and the U.S dimmed. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 71 points, while the S&P 500 pulled back 0.3 percent. The NASDAQ fell 0.4 percent. The market fell to its low of the day — with the Dow dropping more than 160 points — after the South China reported that White House advisor Peter Navarro would be attending the dinner between President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping in Buenos Aires at the G-20. CNBC later confirmed Navarro’s attendance. News of his attendance dampened hopes that a trade deal could be hatched at the dinner given his longstanding hawkish tone on U.S-China trade. Earlier this month, Navarro said any deal between the U.S. and China would be on Trump’s terms, not Wall Street’s. These comments were later disavowed by Larry Kudlow, director of the National Economic Council. Trading in U.S stocks became even more volatile after Dow Jones reported, citing sources, the U.S and China were looking into a deal to de-escalate trade tensions.

 

Major Economic Releases for Today
Period Event GMT Forecast Previous

nov

China Manufacturing PMI 01:00 50.2 50.2

nov

Japan Consumer Confidence Index 05:00 43.2 43

oct

Japan Housing Starts (YoY) 05:00 -0.1% -1.5%

oct

German Retail Sales (YoY) 07:00 1.4% -2.6%

oct

Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate 10:00 8.0% 8.1%

nov

Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index Core (YoY) 10:00 1.1% 1.1%

sep

Canada Gross Domestic Product (YoY) 13:30 2.3% 2.5%

nov

U.S Chicago Purchasing Manager 14:45 58.5 58.4

nov

Baker Hughes U.S Rig Count 18:00   1079
Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.11%. The best performers of the session on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were Boeing Co, which rose 2.72% or 9.06 points to trade at 342.56 at the close. Meanwhile, Pfizer Inc. added 1.36% or 0.61 points to end at 45.51 and Merck & Company Inc. was up 0.88% or 0.68 points to 77.91 in late trade. The worst performers of the session were Intel Corporation, which fell 2.37% or 1.16 points to trade at 47.70 at the close. Visa Inc. declined 1.61% or 2.28 points to end at 139.10 and American Express Company was down 1.40% or 1.58 points to 111.31.

 

 

 

NASDAQ 100

The NASDAQ index fell 0.25%. The top performers on the NASDAQ were Adial Pharmaceuticals Inc. which rose 100.00% to 2.80, Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp which was up 83.42% to settle at 6.970 and Kirklands Inc. which gained 34.13% to close at 10.10. The worst performers were ShiftPixy Inc. which was down 32.35% to 2.99 in late trade, Bio Path Holdings Inc. which lost 26.57% and Cleantech Solutions International Inc. which was down 24.23%.

 

 

Oil

Oil reversed course and rose yesterday, after industry sources said Russia had accepted the need to cut production, together with OPEC. The price is still set for its biggest one-month fall in November since the depths of the financial crisis in 2008, having lost more than 22 percent so far. U.S crude futures rose 81 cents, or 1.6 percent, to $51.10, after earlier dropping below $50 for the first time in over a year. OPEC and non-OPEC producers meet in Vienna next week to discuss a new round of supply cuts of 1 million to 1.4 million bpd and possibly more to prop up prices. The Russian Energy Ministry held a meeting with the heads of domestic oil producers on Tuesday. Russian President Vladimir Putin, whose country is the world’s second biggest oil producer, said on Wednesday he was in touch with OPEC and ready to continue cooperation on supply if needed, but he was satisfied with an oil price of $60. U.S. crude inventories have hit their highest in a year, and are now only 80 million barrels below March 2017’s record 535 million barrels.

 

 

 

Precious and Base Metals

Gold rose yesterday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s comments boosted perception the central bank would go slow on interest rate hikes next year, while palladium was trading at record levels due to a shortage in supply. Spot gold was up 0.3 percent at $1,224.86 per ounce. U.S gold futures were steady at $1,224.1 per ounce. The hint from the Fed that they are closer to ending the current rate hike cycle caught the markets somewhat by surprise. Treasury yields and dollar dropped back, and that was quite supportive of gold. Higher interest rates increase bond yields and tend to make non-yielding bullion less attractive. They also tend to boost the dollar, in which gold is priced. Gold prices jumped as much as 1 percent after Powell’s speech on Wednesday, recovering from a two-week low of $1,210.65 hit earlier. But gains in the precious metal were limited as Powell’s dovish tone helped revive risk appetite, driving world stocks to their highest in more than two weeks, while the dollar and bond yields fell. Powell said the central bank’s policy rate is now “just below” estimates of a level that neither brakes nor boosts a healthy U.S. economy. Investors were waiting the release of the minutes of the U.S central bank’s November meeting for further clues on the Fed’s monetary tightening path. Palladium was down 0.1 percent at $1,182.50 per ounce, after earlier hitting a record high of $1,186.50. This is a very fundamental story of demand outstripping the supply. It’s been six or seven years of sustained market deficit, which has kept the market exceedingly tight. Spot silver was down 0.2 percent to $14.29 per ounce. Platinum rose 0.2 percent to $823 per ounce after falling to a seven-week low of $809.50 on Wednesday. Copper also extended gains yesterday as investors bought riskier assets on speculation U.S interest rates may be near a peak.

 

 

 

 

Traditional Agricultures

Wheat gained more ground on expectations of higher demand for U.S supplies as the Black Sea region runs of surpluses next year. Soybean futures were largely unchanged yesterday, as the market took a breather after strong gains in the last two sessions, ahead of trade talks between Washington and Beijing at the G20 meeting this week.

 

 

Futures Settlement Price Thursday, November 29, 2018
Instrument Contract Open High Low Settlement Net Change
DJIA DJM18 25316 25480 25204 25388 44
S & P 500 SPM18 2738.5 2754.5 2723.25 2743.75 1.75
NASDAQ 100 NDM18 6909 6943.25 6843.25 6911.75 -7.25
Hang Seng HSH18 26869 26948 26397 26463 -154
Nikkei 225 NKH18 22395 22435 22235 22245 10
FTSE 100 FTH18 7049 7080.5 7017.5 7046.5 -29
Gold GCJ18 1220.88 1228.87 1220.4 1224.09 3.21
Silver SIK18 14.306 14.369 14.244 14.284 -0.022
Copper HGK18 279 279.6 276.75 277.7 -1.2
Crude Oil CLK18 50.26 52.16 49.38 51.23 0.96
Wheat WK18 511.25 514 505.75 507.5 -3.75
Soybeans SK18 889.5 894 882.25 887.25 -2.5
Corn CK18 373 375.25 371.25 372.75 0

 

 

Daily Swings  (The Pivot Levels)
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
DJM18 24959 25081 25235 25357 25511 25633 25787
SPM18 2695.25 2709.25 2726.50 2740.50 2757.75 2771.75 2789.00
NDM18 6755.58 6799.42 6855.58 6899.42 6955.58 6999.42 7055.58
HSH18 25706 26052 26257 26603 26808 27154 27359
NKH18 21975 22105 22175 22305 22375 22505 22575
FTH18 6952.83 6985.17 7015.83 7048.17 7078.83 7111.17 7141.83
GCJ18 1211.57 1215.98 1220.04 1224.45 1228.51 1232.92 1236.98
SIK18 14.10 14.17 14.23 14.30 14.35 14.42 14.48
HGK18 273.58 275.17 276.43 278.02 279.28 280.87 282.13
CLK18 46.91 48.14 49.69 50.92 52.47 53.70 55.25
WK18 495.92 500.83 504.17 509.08 512.42 517.33 520.67
SK18 869.92 876.08 881.67 887.83 893.42 899.58 905.17
CK18 366.92 369.08 370.92 373.08 374.92 377.08 378.92

 

 Source: – News & Quotes (Courtesy:  Reuters)                                                                    

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

 

 

30 Nov 2018

FOREX Newsletter

FOREX Newsletter

November 30, 2018

 

Pulse of the Market

·      U.S personal income and spending grew more than expected but jobless claims increased

·      Currency movements were restrained by concerns about the upcoming G20 meeting

·      Concerns about the impact of the tariffs forced investors to ignore better labor data from Germany

·      The Australian dollar ended the day higher while the New Zealand dollar sold off

The U.S dollar dropped sharply on the back of Fed Chair Powell’s comments on interest rates. USD/JPY extended slightly lower but GBP/USD retreated and EUR/USD was unchanged. Powell’s view that rates are just under neutral levels is a sign that they intend to slow their pace of tightening next year. However, in yesterday’s note, we pointed out that Fed futures did not change by much because Powell simply said what the market was waiting to hear. Investors had already downplayed expectations for tightening next year with the futures market only pricing in 1 full rate hike in 2019. Yesterday’s U.S. economic reports did nothing to confirm or deny the central bank’s caution – personal income and spending grew more than expected but jobless claims increased and pending home sales fell sharply. Meanwhile, the FOMC minutes did not help the dollar. Currency movements were also restrained by concerns about the upcoming G20 meeting. President Trump sits down with President Xi today and we have no idea how the talks will go. The biggest turnaround yesterday was in the euro. At the start of the NY session, euro was one of the weakest currencies because there were reports that the US would levy tariffs on EU autos before Christmas. Concerns about the impact of the tariffs forced investors to ignore better labor data from Germany and stronger Eurozone confidence. Shortly after the NY open, however, the European Commission denied those reports and the EUR/USD u-turned for a rally to 1.14. The other big story was oil. Before the NY session began, the price of crude fell below the critical $50 mark. In response USD/CAD traded above 1.33. However Russia’s talk of output cuts reversed the slide and sent prices sharply higher (crude ended the day up 2%) and as a result, USD/CAD gave up its gains to end the day unchanged. Canada will be in focus today with quarterly and monthly GDP numbers due for release.

 

Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
00:01 U.K GfK Consumer Confidence (NOV) Medium   -11 -10
01:00 China Non-manufacturing PMI (NOV) Medium   53.8 53.9
01:00 China Manufacturing PMI (NOV) High   50.2 50.2
05:00 Japan Consumer Confidence Index (NOV) Medium   43.2 43
05:00 Japan Housing Starts (YoY) (OCT) Medium   -0.1% -1.5%
07:00 German Retail Sales (YoY) (OCT) Medium   1.4% -2.6%
07:00 U.K Nationwide House Px n.s.a. (YoY) (NOV) Medium   1.7% 1.6%
08:00 Switzerland KOF Leading Indicator (NOV) Medium   99.5 100.1
10:00 Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate (OCT) Medium   8.0% 8.1%
10:00 Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index Core (YoY) (NOV) High   1.1% 1.1%
11:00 Italian Gross Domestic Product w.d.a. (YoY) (3Q) Medium   0.8% 0.8%
13:30 Canada Quarterly Gross Domestic Product Annualized (3Q) High   2.0% 2.9%
13:30 Canada Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (SEP) High   2.3% 2.5%
14:45 U.S Chicago Purchasing Manager (NOV) Medium   58.5 58.4
18:00 Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count (NOV 30) Medium     1079

 

Euro

The single currency traded higher yesterday. Euro zone economic sentiment continued to deteriorate in November but less than predicted, thanks to an unexpected rise in optimism in the industry, data showed yesterday. Economic sentiment in the 19 countries sharing the euro eased to 109.5 in November from 109.7 in October. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1347 and a high of 1.1400 before closing the day around 1.1392 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen posted gains yesterday. On the release front, Japanese retail sales jumped 3.5%, its highest level since December 2017. In the U.S., the Core PCE Price Index dropped to 0.1%, shy of the estimate of 0.2%. Personal Spending improved to 0.6%, above the estimate of 0.4%. On the labor front, unemployment claims jumped to 234 thousand. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 113.17 and a high of 113.64 before closing the day around 113.46 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound fell against the U.S Dollar as Theresa May was grilled by a Commons committee over her Brexit deal. The Prime Minister defended her withdrawal agreement in front of the House of Commons liaison committee just a day after the Bank of England’s bleak no-deal forecast, in which GDP, house prices and the pound itself would fall sharply. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.2753 and a high of 1.2847 before closing the day at 1.2785 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar edged higher, building on gains from the day before as oil prices rallied and data showed that Canada ran a smaller-than-expected current account deficit in the third quarter. The country’s current account deficit narrowed to $10.34 billion in the third quarter from a revised $16.68 billion deficit in the second quarter. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.3251 and a high of 1.3310 before closing the day at 1.3281 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar closed slightly higher yesterday. New figures released by The Australian Bureau of Statistics have barely moved the Australian dollar against the greenback, despite better than expected CAPEX data. ABS figures show an uptick in September private capital expenditure (CAPEX) with the CAPEX slipping 0.5%. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7293 and a high of 0.7342 before closing the day at 0.7310 in the New York session.

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 51 and lies above the neutral zone. In general, the pair has gained 0.06%.

 

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish tone and MACD is indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 45 reading and lies below the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.47%.

 

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is also indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 60 reading and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.01%.

 

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and below 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 59 and lies above the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has gained 0.53%.

  

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bullish stance and MACD is indicating a bearish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 41 and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.07%.

 

Appendix

  

FOREX Closing Prices for November 29, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.13694 1.14003 1.13473 1.1392 0.0028
USD/JPY 113.641 113.648 113.172 113.463 -0.1980
GBP/USD 1.28234 1.28479 1.27536 1.27856 -0.0036
USD/CHF 0.99373 0.99751 0.99158 0.99553 0.0020
USD/CAD 1.32727 1.33103 1.3251 1.32818 0.0008
EUR/JPY 129.207 129.283 128.651 129.269 0.0820
GBP/JPY 145.743 145.787 144.492 145.066 -0.6790
CHF/JPY 114.326 114.384 113.602 113.93 -0.4350
AUD/JPY 83.012 83.184 82.712 83.026 0.0110
EUR/GBP 0.88634 0.89184 0.88576 0.89077 0.0047
EUR/CHF 1.12988 1.13465 1.12873 1.13437 0.0049
GBP/CHF 1.27419 1.27502 1.26756 1.27306 -0.0009

  

 

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1306 1.1327 1.1359 1.1380 1.1412 1.1433 1.1465
USD/JPY 112.73 112.95 113.21 113.43 113.68 113.90 114.16
GBP/USD 1.2649 1.2701 1.2744 1.2796 1.2838 1.2890 1.2932
USD/CHF 0.9863 0.9889 0.9922 0.9949 0.9982 1.0008 1.0041
USD/CAD 1.3192 1.3222 1.3252 1.3281 1.3311 1.3340 1.3370
EUR/JPY 128.22 128.44 128.85 129.07 129.48 129.70 130.12
GBP/JPY 143.15 143.82 144.44 145.12 145.74 146.41 147.03
CHF/JPY 112.78 113.19 113.56 113.97 114.34 114.75 115.12
AUD/JPY 82.29 82.50 82.76 82.97 83.24 83.45 83.71
EUR/GBP 0.8810 0.8834 0.8871 0.8895 0.8932 0.8955 0.8992
EUR/CHF 1.1246 1.1267 1.1305 1.1326 1.1364 1.1385 1.1424
GBP/CHF 1.2613 1.2644 1.2687 1.2719 1.2762 1.2793 1.2837

 

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

29 Nov 2018

FOREX Newsletter

      

FOREX Newsletter

 November 29, 2018

 

Pulse of the Market

·      Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said that interest rates are just below neutral

·      Investors are also focused on the G20 summit in Buenos Aires on Friday and Saturday

·      Euro zone members aim to agree reforms to make their currency union more resilient

·      The Canadian dollar weakened to a five-month low against its U.S. counterpart yesterday

The U.S Dollar tumbled from two-week highs yesterday after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said that interest rates are just below neutral, raising expectations that the U.S. central bank is closer to the end of its rate hike cycle. Powell said the policy rate, at 2-2.25 percent, is now “just below” the broad range of estimates of neutral, which in September was 2.5-3.5 percent. That contrasts with comments on Oct. 3 when Powell said the Fed might raise rates past neutral, adding that they are probably “a long way” from that point. The Fed has not raised the rates in order to gain ground on neutral between Oct. 3 and today, so therefore his view of the economy has declined. The dollar has been under pressure in recent weeks on signs that the Fed might reduce the pace of rate increases amid slowing global growth, peak corporate earnings and the escalating trade tensions. U.S President Donald Trump has also expressed frustration with Fed rate hikes. Trump said in a Washington Post interview on Tuesday that he was “not even a little bit happy” with the Fed chairman and that the central bank’s policies are hurting the economy. Minutes from the Fed’s Nov. 7-8 meeting, to be released today, will next be evaluated for further indications of how many more times the U.S central bank is likely to hike interest rates. Investors are also focused on the G20 summit in Buenos Aires on Friday and Saturday, where Trump and his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, are scheduled to discuss contentious trade matters. German Finance Minister Olaf Scholz said yesterday he wants euro zone reforms to include changing the European Stability Mechanism bailout fund to a European Monetary Fund (EMF) to support members’ states when needed. The British Pound was already higher before the government’s analysis of Brexit scenarios report was released yesterday. The beleaguered currency actually managed to climb further higher – hitting the $1.28.

 

 

Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
06:45 Switzerland Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (3Q) High   2.9% 3.4%
07:45 French Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (3Q) Medium   1.5% 1.5%
08:55 German Unemployment Change (000’s) (NOV) High   -10k -11k
08:55 German Unemployment Claims Rate s.a. (NOV) High   5.1% 5.1%
09:30 U.K Net Consumer Credit (OCT) Medium   1.0b 0.8b
09:30 U.K Net Lending Sec. on Dwellings (OCT) Medium   3.5b 3.9b
09:30 U.K Mortgage Approvals (OCT) Medium   64.5k 65.3k
10:00 Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence (NOV) Low   -3.9 -3.9
13:00 German Consumer Price Index (YoY) (NOV) High   2.4% 2.5%
13:30 U.S Personal Income (OCT) Medium   0.4% 0.2%
13:30 U.S Personal Spending (OCT) Medium   0.4% 0.4%
13:30 U.S PCE Core (YoY) (OCT) High   2.1% 2.0%
13:30 U.S Initial Jobless Claims (NOV 24) Medium   220k 224k
15:00 U.S Pending Home Sales (YoY) (OCT) Medium   -2.8% -3.4%
19:00 U.S FOMC Meeting Minutes (NOV 08) High      

 

Euro

The single currency gained as Euro zone members aim to agree reforms to make their currency union more resilient when they meet next week. German Finance Minister Olaf Scholz said he wanted to promote a euro zone budget as part of the EU budget to help investment, economic convergence and stability in the euro zone. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1265 and a high of 1.1386 before closing the day around 1.1364 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen pair ticked lower in the Wednesday session. On the release front, U.S. Preliminary GDP for the third quarter gained 3.5%, just shy of the estimate of 3.6%. This follows an identical gain of 3.5% in the Advanced GDP release. Today promises to be a busy day, as the U.S releases three key indicators. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 113.42 and a high of 114.01 before closing the day around 113.66 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound ticked higher yesterday. On the release front, the BoE released its financial stability report. In the U.S, the key event was Preliminary GDP, which gained 3.5% in Q3. This follows an identical gain of 3.5% in the Advanced GDP release in October. Today, the U.K releases Net Lending to Individuals as well as GfK Consumer Confidence. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.2730 and a high of 1.2845 before closing the day at 1.2821 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar weakened to a five-month low against its U.S counterpart yesterday as oil prices declined and ahead of the potential signing of a new North American trade pact this week. The price of oil was pressured yesterday by rising U.S inventories and doubts over whether an OPEC-led output cut will be agreed next week. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.3239 and a high of 1.3357 before closing the day at 1.3274 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar gained as the market waited for some clarity to emerge on Sino-US trade, while soft economic data at home had only a fleeting impact. US President Donald Trump is open to reaching a deal over dinner on Saturday with Chinese leader Xi Jinping but is ready to hike tariffs if there is no breakthrough, White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said on Tuesday. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7219 and a high of 0.7326 before closing the day at 0.7308 in the New York session.

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is issuing a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 52 and lies below the neutral zone. In general, the pair has gained 0.61%.

 

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish tone and MACD is indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 49 reading and lies below the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has gained 0.50%.

 

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is also indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 61 reading and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 1.02%.

 

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and below 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bearish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 54 and lies above the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has gained 0.03%.

 

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish stance and MACD is also indicating a bearish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 41 and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.11%.

 

Appendix

  

FOREX Closing Prices for November 28, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.12903 1.1386 1.12657 1.13644 0.0078
USD/JPY 113.761 114.018 113.423 113.661 -0.1130
GBP/USD 1.27374 1.28453 1.27305 1.28212 0.0077
USD/CHF 0.99876 1.00042 0.99237 0.99357 -0.0049
USD/CAD 1.32935 1.33575 1.32398 1.32741 -0.0020
EUR/JPY 128.432 129.235 128.226 129.187 0.7800
GBP/JPY 144.938 145.811 144.836 145.745 0.7190
CHF/JPY 113.892 114.383 113.763 114.365 0.4480
AUD/JPY 82.171 83.155 82.14 83.015 0.8390
EUR/GBP 0.88635 0.88744 0.88086 0.88609 0.0002
EUR/CHF 1.12764 1.13145 1.12588 1.12945 0.0019
GBP/CHF 1.27186 1.27893 1.27145 1.274 0.0015

 

 

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1171 1.1218 1.1291 1.1339 1.1412 1.1459 1.1532
USD/JPY 112.79 113.11 113.38 113.70 113.98 114.30 114.57
GBP/USD 1.2638 1.2684 1.2753 1.2799 1.2868 1.2914 1.2982
USD/CHF 0.9824 0.9874 0.9905 0.9955 0.9985 1.0035 1.0066
USD/CAD 1.3106 1.3173 1.3223 1.3290 1.3341 1.3408 1.3459
EUR/JPY 127.52 127.87 128.53 128.88 129.54 129.89 130.55
GBP/JPY 144.14 144.49 145.12 145.46 146.09 146.44 147.07
CHF/JPY 113.34 113.55 113.96 114.17 114.58 114.79 115.20
AUD/JPY 81.37 81.76 82.39 82.77 83.40 83.79 84.42
EUR/GBP 0.8756 0.8782 0.8822 0.8848 0.8887 0.8914 0.8953
EUR/CHF 1.1208 1.1234 1.1264 1.1289 1.1320 1.1345 1.1375
GBP/CHF 1.2632 1.2673 1.2707 1.2748 1.2781 1.2823 1.2856

 

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

29 Nov 2018

Daily Market View

Daily Market View

Thursday, November 29, 2018
          U.S Stock Market

 

DJIA S & P 500 NASDAQ
25344 2742.00 6919.00
+2.49% +2.30% +2.95%

U.S stock indexes rallied more than 1.5percent yesterday after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the policy rate was ‘just below’ neutral, easing worries of a faster pace of interest rate hikes next year. The Fed’s gradual interest-rate hikes are meant to balance risks as it tries to keep the economy on track, Powell said, but offered few clues on how much longer the U.S. central bank would raise interest rates in the face of a global slowdown and market volatility at home. Ten of the 11 major S&P sectors were higher. Markets also took heart from White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow’s comments on Tuesday that opened the possibility that the United States and China would reach a trade deal at the upcoming G20 Summit. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 477.47 points, or 1.93 percent, the S&P 500 was up 42.76 points, or 1.59 percent and the NASDAQ was up 142.77 points, or 2.02 percent. Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by a 3.45-to-1 ratioon the and by a 2.96-to-1 ratio on the NASDAQ.

 

 

Major Economic Releases for Today
Period Event GMT Forecast Previous

3Q

French Gross Domestic Product (YoY) 07:45 1.5% 1.5%

nov

German Unemployment Change (000’s) 08:55 -10k -11k

nov

German Consumer Price Index (YoY) 13:00 2.4% 2.5%

oct

U.S Personal Income 13:30 0.4% 0.2%

oct

U.S Personal Spending 13:30 0.4% 0.4%

oct

U.S PCE Core (YoY) 13:30 2.1% 2.0%

nov

U.S Initial Jobless Claims 13:30 220k 224k

oct

U.S Pending Home Sales (YoY) 15:00 -2.8% -3.4%

nov

U.S FOMC Meeting Minutes 19:00    
Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 2.50%. The best performers of the session on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were Caterpillar Inc., which rose 4.95% or 6.17 points to trade at 130.77 at the close. Meanwhile, Boeing Co added 4.86% or 15.47 points to end at 333.50 and Visa Inc. was up 4.02% or 5.47 points to 141.38 in late trade. The worst performers of the session were Verizon Communications Inc, which fell 0.97% or 0.59 points to trade at 60.06 at the close. United Technologies Corporation added 0.04% or 0.05 points to end at 122.73 and Dow DuPont Inc. was up 0.07% or 0.04 points to 57.22.

 

 

 

NASDAQ 100

The NASDAQ index gained 2.95%. The top performers on the NASDAQ were Gaming Partners which rose 70.80% to 13.13, Alliqua BioMedical Inc. which was up 60.24% to settle at 2.660 and Ferroglobe PLC which gained 25.56% to close at 2.26. The top performers on the NASDAQ Composite were Gaming Partners which rose 70.80% to 13.13, Alliqua BioMedical Inc. which was up 60.24% to settle at 2.660 and Ferroglobe PLC which gained 25.56% to close at 2.26.

 

 

Oil

Oil prices fell yesterday, continuing a recent run of losses, after U.S crude inventories rose for the 10th week in a row. The market also remains nervous over whether OPEC-led producing countries will reach an accord next week on output cuts. Saudi Arabia said yesterday it would not cut output alone and Nigeria stopped short of committing to a new push to curb supplies. U.S West Texas Intermediate crude fell $1.27, or 2.5 percent, to $50.29, the lowest settle price since early October 2017. U.S crude stockpiles rose by 3.6 million barrels in the week to Nov. 23, exceeding expectations. After falling to 2½-year lows in September, crude stocks have risen 14 percent with 10 straight weeks of increases. The market continues to come under pressure due to worries of a supply glut and slowing global demand growth. Crude’s drop since October is on a par with the 2008 price crash and steeper than that of 2014-2015, both of which prompted OPEC to agree output curbs to support the market.

 

 

 

Precious and Base Metals

Gold prices recovered from two-week lows, rising as much as 1 percent as the dollar fell after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell offered little clues on the pace of future interest rate hikes in a cautious speech. Meanwhile, palladium prices hit a fresh record high at $1,186.30 per ounce. While there was “a great deal to like” about U.S. prospects, the bank’s gradual interest-rate hikes are meant to balance risks as it tries to keep the economy on track, Powell said. Powell’s comments suggest that 2019 may be more of a wait-and-see approach and the assumption of any hikes may be premature. Spot gold was up 0.6 percent at $1,221.68 per ounce after rising as much as 1 percent to $1,226.24. Prices fell to its lowest level since Nov. 15 at $1,210.65 earlier in the session. U.S gold futures were up 0.7 percent at $1,222. Investors will also keep a close watch for the minutes from the central bank’s Nov. 7-8 meeting, scheduled to be released today, for indications on the rate hike trajectory in 2019. The Fed has raised rates three times this year. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, was down 0.3 percent after the Fed speech. Meanwhile, U.S President Donald Trump is likely to meet his Chinese counterpart on the sidelines of the G20 meeting later this week to discuss the trade dispute between the major economies. Bullion has largely lost out to the dollar as a safe haven asset this year as the U.S-China trade war unfolded against a backdrop of rising U.S interest rates. Silver rose 1.1 percent to $14.29 per ounce, while platinum fell 1.1 percent to $821.30, having earlier touched its lowest in more than a month, at $814.50. Copper edged higher yesterday after declining for three straight sessions, while other industrial metals moved in tight ranges amid uncertainty over the direction of the U.S.-China trade war.

 

Traditional Agricultures

Soybean futures rose yesterday on short-covering as investors waited to see if expected talks between Washington and Beijing at a G20 summit this week will defuse a trade dispute that has choked U.S soybean exports to China. Corn and wheat followed the firm tone, drawing additional support from a sharply weaker Dollar.

 

 

Futures Settlement Price Wednesday, November 28, 2018
Instrument Contract Open High Low Settlement Net Change
DJIA DJM18 24771 25367 24724 25344 601
S & P 500 SPM18 2686 2744.75 2681 2742 58.25
NASDAQ 100 NDM18 6724.5 6923 6709 6919 207
Hang Seng HSH18 26353 26717 26286 26608 356
Nikkei 225 NKH18 22075 22235 22035 22235 245
FTSE 100 FTH18 7058 7075.5 6987.5 7075.5 36.5
Gold GCJ18 1214.2 1227.4 1210.4 1220.8 6.6
Silver SIK18 1410 1435 1406 1427 18.5
Copper HGK18 271.55 280.2 271.4 278.9 7.45
Crude Oil CLK18 52.05 52.52 50.03 50.27 -1.79
Wheat WK18 497.75 500.5 494.25 497.25 -0.5
Soybeans SK18 876 894.5 873.75 889.75 14
Corn CK18 355.75 361 355.75 360.25 4.25

 

 

Daily Swings  (The Pivot Levels)
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
DJM18 24280 24502 24923 25145 25566 25788 26209
SPM18 2636.67 2658.83 2700.42 2722.58 2764.17 2786.33 2827.92
NDM18 6563.67 6636.33 6777.67 6850.33 6991.67 7064.33 7205.67
HSH18 25926 26106 26357 26537 26788 26968 27219
NKH18 21902 21968 22102 22168 22302 22368 22502
FTH18 6928.83 6958.17 7016.83 7046.17 7104.83 7134.17 7192.83
GCJ18 1194.67 1202.53 1211.67 1219.53 1228.67 1236.53 1245.67
SIK18 1381.33 1393.67 1410.33 1422.67 1439.33 1451.67 1468.33
HGK18 264.67 268.03 273.47 276.83 282.27 285.63 291.07
CLK18 46.87 48.45 49.36 50.94 51.85 53.43 54.34
WK18 487.92 491.08 494.17 497.33 500.42 503.58 506.67
SK18 856.75 865.25 877.50 886.00 898.25 906.75 919.00
CK18 351.75 353.75 357.00 359.00 362.25 364.25 367.50

 

 Source: – News & Quotes (Courtesy:  Reuters)                                                                    

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