20 Jul 2018

Daily  Market View

         

Daily  Market View

Friday, July 20, 2018
          U.S Stock Market

 

DJIA S & P 500 NASDAQ
25060 2805.75 7367.75
-0.53% -0.40% -0.37%

U.S stocks fell in midday trading yesterday, as major indexes consolidated their gains after a five-day rally that was driven largely by optimism over the strength of corporate earnings. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 120 points, or 0.4%. The blue-chip average is coming off its longest winning streak in two months. The S&P 500 slipped 9 points a 0.3% decline. The NASDAQ fell 22 points, or 0.3%. At current levels, the S&P is about 2.4% below its own record, while the Dow is 5.8% under its own. The muted action yesterday came as traders absorbed recent market-moving events, including Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s two-day congressional testimony, upbeat economic data and a raft of largely positive earnings. Initial jobless claims fell by 8,000 last week, dropping to their lowest level since late 1969. Separately, the Philly Fed manufacturing index rose 6 points to a reading of 25.7 in July, above expectations. Oil prices rebounded sharply after Saudi Arabia said it expects to see a drop in August exports, while gold prices slumped.

 

 

Major Economic Releases for Today
Period Event GMT Forecast Previous

jun

New Zealand Credit Card Spending (YoY) 03:00   3.7%

may

Japan All Industry Activity Index (MoM) 04:30 0.0% 1.0%

jun

German Producer Price Index (YoY) 06:00 3.0% 2.7%

jun

U.K Public Finances (PSNCR) (Pounds) 08:30   4.5b

jun

U.K Public Sector Net Borrowing 08:30 3.6b 3.4b

jun

U.K PSNB ex Banking Groups 08:30 5.0b 5.0b

may

Canada Retail Sales (MoM) 12:30 1.0% -1.2%

jun

Canada Consumer Price Index (YoY) 12:30 2.3% 2.2%

jul

Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count 17:00   1054
Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.53% yesterday. The best performers of the session on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were International Business Machines, which rose 3.27% or 4.72 points to trade at 149.24 at the close. Meanwhile, Walt Disney Company added 1.30% or 1.44 points to end at 112.13 and Home Depot Inc. was up 0.83% or 1.66 points to 202.63 in late trade. The worst performers of the session were The Travelers Companies Inc., which fell 3.71% or 4.82 points to trade at 125.18 at the close. American Express Company declined 2.73% or 2.81 points to end at 100.17 and Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. was down 1.86% or 1.23 points to 64.93.

 

 

NASDAQ 100

The tech heavy NASDAQ index fell 0.37% yesterday. The top performers on the NASDAQ were Schmitt Industries Inc. which rose 29.58% to 3.110, AC Immune Ltd which was up 21.48% to settle at 14.31 and Adomani Inc. which gained 20.62% to close at 0.78. The worst performers were Mersana Therapeutics Inc. which was down 31.59% to 11.26 in late trade, AGM Group Holdings Inc Class A which lost 19.30% to settle at 13.84 and Resources Connection Inc. which was down 17.20% to 14.20 at the close.

Oil

Crude dipped yesterday as concerns about mounting supply returned after a brief rally earlier in the session on comments that Saudi Arabia’s exports would fall in August. Crude prices fell from session highs reached after Saudi Arabia’s OPEC Governor Adeeb Al-Aama statement that the kingdom expects crude exports to drop by roughly 100,000 bpd in August as it limits excess production. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was 70 cents higher, or 1 percent, settling at $69.46. U.S crude prices had reached a session high of $70.17 earlier in the session before paring gains. Crude prices pulled back from highs earlier in the session as traders cashed in on profits, said John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital Management in New York. Prices, which had strengthened on news of Saudi Arabia’s planned export cuts, fell as the market’s focus returned to potential oversupply as Saudi Arabia, Russia and other major producers continue to lift output.

 
Precious and Base Metals

Gold sank to a one-year low yesterday as the dollar powered higher after comments from U.S. Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell which reaffirmed expectations for more interest rate rises in the world’s largest economy. Powell, in a closely watched two-day congressional testimony, said he believed the United States was on course for years more of steady growth, and carefully played down the risks to the U.S. economy of an escalating trade conflict. The Fed raised rates in June and policymakers indicated they expect two more rate increases this year. Powell said nothing in his testimony this week to undermine that, and said the economy was poised for several more years of growth. Gold is highly exposed to interest rates, particularly in the United States, as higher rates lift the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets and boost the dollar, in which gold is priced. Spot gold fell 0.7 percent to $1,217.95 per ounce, having earlier touched its lowest since July 2017 at $1,211.08. U.S. gold futures for August delivery were 0.9 percent lower at $1,216.56 an ounce. Gold is not being used as a safe haven right now despite the ongoing trade war, and the stronger dollar is dominating the story amidst the rate-rising environment. Gold is generally regarded as a safe and stable store of value during times of global uncertainty. The dollar rose to a one-year high against a basket of six major currencies, supported by bullish comments from Powell, which affirmed expectations for more interest rate increases this year. U.S. President Donald Trump said on Wednesday the United States may hammer out a trade deal with Mexico, and then do a separate one with Canada later, sowing fresh doubts about the future of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). Among other precious metals, silver was down 1.6 percent at $15.27 an ounce, its lowest since last July. Platinum was 2.2 percent lower at $795 an ounce, its lowest since 2008.

 

 

 

Traditional Agriculture

Soybean futures eased slightly in yesterday’s session amid a strengthening dollar as the market stepped back from the previous sessions near one-week top, though demand for U.S beans kept a floor under the market.

 

 

Futures Settlement Price Thursday, July 19, 2018
Instrument Contract Open High Low Settlement Net Change
DJIA DJM18 25167 25202 25031 25060 -95
S & P 500 SPM18 2814.5 2817.75 2800.25 2805.75 -10
NASDAQ 100 NDM18 7402 7415.75 7354.5 7367.75 -35
Hang Seng HSH18 28237 28310 27949 28032 -44
Nikkei 225 NKH18 22845 22895 22735 22795 -15
FTSE 100 FTH18 7612 7641 7595.5 7617 5.5
Gold GCJ18 1226.6 1228.9 1210.7 1222.3 -4.9
Silver SIK18 1556 1558 1517.5 1531 -25
Copper HGK18 276.6 277.85 267.3 271.55 -4.85
Crude Oil CLK18 67.91 68.75 66.59 67.99 0.1
Wheat WK18 491.5 505.25 490 503.25 8.75
Soybeans SK18 841.75 846.5 836.25 845.75 4
Corn CK18 346.25 351.5 344.75 350.5 3.75

 

 

Daily Swings  (The Pivot Levels)
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
DJM18 24822 24927 24993 25098 25164 25269 25335
SPM18 2780.58 2790.42 2798.08 2807.92 2815.58 2825.42 2833.08
NDM18 7281.67 7318.08 7342.92 7379.33 7404.17 7440.58 7465.42
HSH18 27523 27736 27884 28097 28245 28458 28606
NKH18 22562 22648 22722 22808 22882 22968 23042
FTH18 7549.17 7572.33 7594.67 7617.83 7640.17 7663.33 7685.67
GCJ18 1194.17 1202.43 1212.37 1220.63 1230.57 1238.83 1248.77
SIK18 1472.50 1495.00 1513.00 1535.50 1553.50 1576.00 1594.00
HGK18 256.07 261.68 266.62 272.23 277.17 282.78 287.72
CLK18 64.64 65.62 66.80 67.78 68.96 69.94 71.12
WK18 478.50 484.25 493.75 499.50 509.00 514.75 524.25
SK18 828.92 832.58 839.17 842.83 849.42 853.08 859.67
CK18 339.58 342.17 346.33 348.92 353.08 355.67 359.83

 

 Source: – News & Quotes (Courtesy:  Reuters)    

                                                                

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

 

 

 

 

20 Jul 2018

         

FOREX Newsletter

July 20, 2018

Pulse of the Market

·      U.S Department of Labor reported initial jobless claims dropped by 8,000 for the week ended July 14

·      The Philadelphia Fed said yesterday its manufacturing index rose to a reading of 25.7 in July

·      UK retail sales undershot expectations, denting the prospect for an August Bank of England rate hike

·      The Financial Conduct Authority advised banks yesterday to prepare for a no deal Brexit scenario

The Dollar reversed course against its rivals in yesterday’s trading session after U.S. President Trump said he was “not happy” about Federal Reserve rate hikes but downside was limited amid optimism over the U.S economy. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the green against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, fell by 0.08% to 94.75, after hitting a session high of 95.44. “I’m not happy about it,” President Donald Trump said about interest-rate increases during an interview with CNBC yesterday, claiming that “higher rates put us [United States] at a disadvantage.” Trump insisted, however, that he would let the “Fed do what they feel is best.” The comments scaled back some investor optimism over a faster pace of rate hikes which had followed bullish comments from Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell earlier in the week. Powell said gradual interest rate hikes would be “the best way forward” for the economy, citing stronger labor markets, and inflation that had met the Fed’s 2% objective. Downside in the dollar limited, however, as positive economic data reaffirmed investor expectations the economy remained on solid footing. The U.S. Department of Labor reported yesterday that initial jobless claims dropped by 8,000 to a seasonally adjusted 207,000 for the week ended July 14, beating economists’ forecast for a drop to 220,000. The Philadelphia Fed said Thursday its manufacturing index rose to a reading of 25.7 in July from 19.9 in June. GBP/USD fell 0.23% to $1.3039, after plunging below $1.30 earlier as UK retail sales undershot expectations, denting the prospect for an August Bank of England rate hike. Retail sales month over month fell by 0.5% in June, lower than the expected increase of 0.1%. Sales for May were revised upward from 1.3% to 1.4%. The core retail sales figure, which excludes automobiles and fuel, fell by 0.6% – lower than the expected drop of 0.3%. Overall retail sales growth for the second quarter came in at the strongest level since 2004 despite the fall in June. Safe-haven currencies were in demand as the yen and Swiss franc rose against the greenback on the back of renewed concerns about an escalation in the U.S.-China trade war.

 

   

 

Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
03:00 New Zealand Credit Card Spending (YoY) (JUN) Medium     3.7%
04:30 Japan All Industry Activity Index (MoM) (MAY) Medium   0.0% 1.0%
06:00 German Producer Price Index (YoY) (JUN) Low   3.0% 2.7%
08:00 Euro-Zone Current Account n.s.a. (euros) (MAY) Low     26.2b
08:30 U.K Public Finances (PSNCR) (Pounds) (JUN) Medium     4.5b
08:30 U.K Central Government NCR (JUN) Medium     6.9b
08:30 U.K Public Sector Net Borrowing (JUN) Medium   3.6b 3.4b
08:30 U.K PSNB ex Banking Groups (JUN) Medium   5.0b 5.0b
12:00 U.S Fed’s Bullard Speaks on Economy and Monetary Policy Low      
12:30 Canada Retail Sales (MoM) (MAY) Medium   1.0% -1.2%
12:30 Canada Consumer Price Index n.s.a. (MoM) (JUN) Medium   0.0% 0.1%
12:30 Canada Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JUN) High   2.3% 2.2%
17:00 Baker Hughes U.S Rig Count (JUL 20) Medium     1054

 

 

Euro

The single currency gained in yesterday’s trading session as the Dollar fell from a one-year peak yesterday after U.S. President Donald Trump expressed concern about a strong currency, which he said puts the United States at a disadvantage. The five-year growth run has been supported by exceptionally loose monetary policy. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1573 and a high of 1.1677 before closing the day around 1.1640 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen pair fell from a one-year peak on Thursday after U.S. President Donald Trump expressed concern about a strong currency, which he said puts the United States at a disadvantage. The greenback also gave back some of its gains against the Chinese Yuan, which had earlier dropped to a one-year low against the dollar. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 112.04 and a high of 113.15 before closing the day around 112.45 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound dropped below the $1.30 level on Thursday as a result of an unexpected drop in consumer spending in June, further sliming the chances of a Bank of England rate hike in August. Retail sales month over month fell by 0.5% in June, lower than the expected increase of 0.1%. Sales for May were revised upward from 1.3% to 1.4%.  Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.2955 and a high of 1.3081 before closing the day at 1.3012 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar fell to a three-week low against a strong U.S Dollar yesterday, hammered by weaker commodity prices and lingering uncertainty about global trade after President Donald Trump said the United States wants to negotiate bilateral deals with Canada and Mexico. Lower commodity prices weighed on the commodity-based Canadian currency. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.3157 and a high of 1.3287 before closing the day at 1.3270 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar rose broadly earlier in yesterday’s session after official data appeared to show the 2018 slowdown in Aussie jobs growth coming to an end in June but fell later in the day. Australia’s economy created 59,900 new jobs during the recent month, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, up from 13,400 in May and far ahead of the consensus for an increase of 16,700. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7320 and a high of 0.7439 before closing the day at 0.7355 in the New York session.

 

 
Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is issuing a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 59 and lies above the neutral zone. In general, the pair has lost 0.31%.

 

 

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish tone and MACD is also indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 44 reading and lies below the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.75%.

 

 

 

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 51 reading and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.90%.

 

  

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 70 and lies above the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has gained 0.45%.

 

 

 

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading above 14, 50 and below 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish stance and MACD is indicating a bullish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 35 and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.41%.

Appendix

  

FOREX Closing Prices for July 19, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.16379 1.1677 1.15736 1.16403 0.0003
USD/JPY 112.838 113.15 112.042 112.45 -0.3700
GBP/USD 1.30675 1.30815 1.29556 1.30126 -0.0055
USD/CHF 0.99929 1.00415 0.99569 0.99894 0.0002
USD/CAD 1.31665 1.32872 1.31577 1.32701 0.0104
EUR/JPY 131.324 131.408 130.705 130.918 -0.4110
GBP/JPY 147.467 147.575 146.136 146.342 -1.1100
CHF/JPY 112.88 112.98 112.446 112.534 -0.3930
AUD/JPY 83.45 83.895 82.557 82.698 -0.7480
EUR/GBP 0.89046 0.89529 0.8901 0.8944 0.0040
EUR/CHF 1.16288 1.16376 1.16114 1.16301 0.0005
GBP/CHF 1.30597 1.3065 1.29847 1.30001 -0.0054

 

 

 

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1480 1.1527 1.1584 1.1630 1.1687 1.1734 1.1790
USD/JPY 110.84 111.44 111.94 112.55 113.05 113.66 114.16
GBP/USD 1.2826 1.2891 1.2952 1.3017 1.3078 1.3142 1.3203
USD/CHF 0.9866 0.9911 0.9950 0.9996 1.0035 1.0081 1.0120
USD/CAD 1.3060 1.3109 1.3189 1.3238 1.3319 1.3368 1.3448
EUR/JPY 129.91 130.31 130.61 131.01 131.32 131.71 132.02
GBP/JPY 144.35 145.25 145.79 146.68 147.23 148.12 148.67
CHF/JPY 111.79 112.12 112.33 112.65 112.86 113.19 113.39
AUD/JPY 80.87 81.71 82.21 83.05 83.54 84.39 84.88
EUR/GBP 0.8860 0.8881 0.8912 0.8933 0.8964 0.8985 0.9016
EUR/CHF 1.1589 1.1600 1.1615 1.1626 1.1641 1.1653 1.1668
GBP/CHF 1.2888 1.2936 1.2968 1.3017 1.3049 1.3097 1.3129

 

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

 

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

19 Jul 2018

Daily Market View

Daily Market View

Thursday, July 19, 2018
          U.S Stock Market

 

DJIA S & P 500 NASDAQ
25155 2815.75 7402.75
+0.32% +0.22% -0.01%

U.S stocks mostly held ground in positive territory after an anecdotal account of business conditions in the Fed’s districts painted a picture of a tightening labor market and one attentive to escalating trade spats between the U.S and its global trade partners. The S&P 500 index saw a tentative gain of 4 points, or 0.1%, with only three of its 11 main sectors trading higher. Financials and industrials were leading gains, both by at least 1%, while consumer-staples names led losses, down 0.7%, at last check. The NASDAQ meanwhile, traded near break-even levels, a day after notching its third all-time high of the month. The Dow advanced by 65 points, or 0.3%. If the blue-chip benchmark closes up a fifth day in a row in the green, it would mark its longest winning period since the eight-day period ended May 14. The Fed’s Beige Book revealed a domestic strong economy that was rapidly expanding but one running out of room to grow much faster as shortages of skilled workers and rising costs of raw materials risked impeding another leg further for the economy.

 

Major Economic Releases for Today
Period Event GMT Forecast Previous

2Q

Australia NAB Business Confidence 01:30   7

jun

Australia Employment Change 01:30 16.5k 12.0k

jun

Australia Unemployment Rate 01:30 5.4% 5.4%

jun

U.K Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel (YoY) 08:30 3.7% 4.4%

jul

U.S Initial Jobless Claims 12:30 221k 214k

jul

U.S Continuing Claims 12:30 1725k 1739k

jul

U.S Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook 12:30 21.5 19.9

jun

U.S Leading Index 14:00 0.5% 0.2%

jun

Japan National Consumer Price Index (YoY) 23:30 0.8% 0.7%
Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.32% to hit a new 1-month high yesterday. The best performers of the session on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were UnitedHealth Group Incorporated, which rose 2.05% or 5.13 points to trade at 255.42 at the close. Meanwhile, American Express Company added 1.81% or 1.83 points to end at 102.98 and Caterpillar Inc. was up 1.56% or 2.17 points to 141.12 in late trade. The worst performers of the session were McDonald’s Corporation, which fell 1.14% or 1.82 points to trade at 157.93 at the close. Nike Inc. declined 1.14% or 0.88 points to end at 76.59 and Johnson & Johnson was down 1.01% or 1.31 points to 127.80.

 

NASDAQ 100

The tech heavy NASDAQ index lost 0.01%. The top performers on the NASDAQ Composite were Precipio Inc. which rose 30.90% to 0.4778, Staffing 360 Solutions Inc. which was up 29.24% to settle at 3.050 and Vermillion Inc. which gained 22.39% to close at 0.710. The worst performers were CTi Biopharma Corp which was down 43.36% to 2.260 in late trade, China Customer Relations Centers Inc. which lost 22.07% to settle at 8.79 and Medigus Ltd ADR which was down 16.33% to 3.690 at the close.

Oil

Oil prices ended higher yesterday, finding support from a bigger-than-expected decline in gasoline stocks, despite a surprise climb in domestic crude supplies and record weekly production. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, August West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1%, or 68 cents, to settle at $68.76 a barrel after an intraday low of $67.04. The Energy Information Administration reported Wednesday that domestic crude supplies climbed 5.8 million barrels for the week ended July 13. Analysts surveyed by S&P Global Platts had forecast a fall of 3 million barrels, while the American Petroleum Institute on Tuesday reported a rise of 629,000 barrels. The report also showed that domestic production climbed by 100,000 barrels a day to 11 million barrels a day. That’s the highest weekly level on record, based on EIA data dating back to at least 1985. Gasoline stockpiles declined by 3.2 million barrels for the week.

 
Precious and Base Metals

Gold prices steadied yesterday as the U.S dollar eased off a three-week high, following an earlier drop in bullion to a one-year low as bullish comments from U.S Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell boosted the greenback. The dollar came off a little bit later in trade, causing gold to go into positive territory, but I think it’s temporary. Gold has shed more than 10 percent since touching a peak of $1,365.23 an ounce in mid-April, weighed down by a stronger dollar and rising U.S interest rates. Spot gold was flat at $1,227.26 per ounce, after touching its weakest since July 14, 2017 at $1,220.81. U.S gold futures for August delivery settled up 60 cents, or 0.1 percent, at $1,227.90 per ounce. In this environment where we also see oil prices falling, and so less concern from investors about rising inflation, that’s another negative for the gold price. Gold is regarded as a hedge against inflation. The U.S. dollar slightly eased off a three-week high. It earlier rose across the board, after Powell gave an upbeat outlook for the U.S economy. Higher interest rates tend to boost the dollar and push up bond yields, making greenback-denominated gold more expensive for holders of other currencies and denting its appeal. Russia, which dropped off the list of U.S. Treasuries holders in May, may have increased gold purchases as a result of recent sanctions imposed by the United States on Russia, but that has yet to help bullion prices. Not so much of that is going to turn the market around. Longer-term, some analysts expect dollar strength to wane and possible geopolitical concerns and the heavy weight of gold bearish positions to help bullion recover. With the U.S dollar expected to eventually roll over and upside pressure to U.S bond yields easing, medium- to longer-term buying opportunities for gold should open up. Meanwhile, silver dipped 0.1 percent at $15.56 an ounce, after touching $15.38, its lowest since July 10 of last year. Platinum lost 0.2 percent at $814.20 an ounce, after earlier hitting a two-week low of $798.14.

 

 

 

 

Traditional Agriculture

Soybean futures touched their highest prices in about a week in yesterday’s trading session, as agricultural markets stabilized following recent drops to contract lows.

 

Futures Settlement Price Tuesday, July 18, 2018
Instrument Contract Open High Low Settlement Net Change
DJIA DJM18 25117 25193 25079 25155 51
S & P 500 SPM18 2812.75 2818 2806.75 2815.75 4.5
NASDAQ 100 NDM18 7424.25 7437.25 7381.5 7402.75 -17.75
Hang Seng HSH18 28403 28404 28008 28076 -112
Nikkei 225 NKH18 22865 22925 22775 22810 90
FTSE 100 FTH18 7598.5 7624.5 7586 7611.5 17.5
Gold GCJ18 1227.6 1228.8 1220.6 1227.2 0
Silver SIK18 1558/.5 1561 1540 1556 -1
Copper HGK18 274.35 277.05 271.55 276.4 2
Crude Oil CLK18 67.6 69.03 67.02 68.95 1.39
Wheat WK18 500.5 504.5 493.75 494.5 -3.5
Soybeans SK18 840.5 847 834.25 841.75 2.75
Corn CK18 346.5 348.5 345.75 346.75 1

 

 

Daily Swings  (The Pivot Levels)
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
DJM18 24978 25028 25092 25142 25206 25256 25320
SPM18 2797.75 2802.25 2809.00 2813.50 2820.25 2824.75 2831.50
NDM18 7321.33 7351.42 7377.08 7407.17 7432.83 7462.92 7488.58
HSH18 27525 27767 27921 28163 28317 28559 28713
NKH18 22598 22687 22748 22837 22898 22987 23048
FTH18 7551.67 7568.83 7590.17 7607.33 7628.67 7645.83 7667.17
GCJ18 1214.07 1217.33 1222.27 1225.53 1230.47 1233.73 1238.67
SIK18 1522.67 1531.33 1543.67 1552.33 1564.67 1573.33 1585.67
HGK18 267.45 269.50 272.95 275.00 278.45 280.50 283.95
CLK18 65.63 66.32 67.64 68.33 69.65 70.34 71.66
WK18 479.92 486.83 490.67 497.58 501.42 508.33 512.17
SK18 822.25 828.25 835.00 841.00 847.75 853.75 860.50
CK18 342.75 344.25 345.50 347.00 348.25 349.75 351.00

 Source: – News & Quotes (Courtesy:  Reuters)    

                                                                

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

19 Jul 2018

FOREX Newsletter

     

FOREX Newsletter

July 19, 2018

Pulse of the Market

·      U.S housing starts tumbled 12.3% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.173 million units

·      A slump in the British Pound to September lows limited U.S Dollar weakness

·      Weaker U.K inflation data dented expectations for a Bank of England rate hike

·      China’s Ministry of Commerce warned of further measures in response to aluminum and steel tariffs

The Dollar was unchanged against its rivals yesterday as gains on the back of a slump in the pound were offset by soft U.S economic data showing subdued housing market activity. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, rose by 0.04% to 94.77, down from a session high of 95.18. Housing starts slumped to a nine-month low as both higher mortgage rates and elevated costs for labor and materials weighed on the housing market, government figures showed yesterday. Housing starts tumbled 12.3% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.173 million units last month, the Commerce Department said. The report also highlighted a 2.2% decline in building permits to a rate of 1.273 million units. That was the lowest level since September 2017. Analysts, however, claimed the duo of weaker reports did not signal that the housing recovery had “shorted out.” While labor also remains in short supply and pricey, we believe the greatest impediment to homebuilding right now is that fewer projects pencil out. That said, the housing recovery has not shorted out. Market participants were also monitoring Fed Chairman Jay Powell’s testimony before the House Financial Services Committee yesterday. Reaction in currencies was muted as Powell offered little new insight on monetary policy. A slump in the pound to September lows limited dollar weakness as weaker U.K. inflation data dented expectations for a Bank of England rate hike despite calls from analysts insisting that inflation was strong enough to support an August rate hike. U.K. inflation data likely won’t deter the Bank of England from raising the interest rates in August. But a further fall in core inflation will make a second rate hike in 2018 unlikely. U.K. consumer prices rose 2.4%, unchanged from May and missing expectations of a 2.6% reading. Core inflation slipped to 1.9%, falling below the Bank of England’s 2% target. The greenback also gave up gains against safe-haven currencies such as the yen and Swiss franc after China’s Ministry of Commerce warned of further countermeasures in response to U.S. steel and aluminum tariffs.

 

   

 

Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
01:30 Australia NAB Business Confidence (2Q) Medium     7
01:30 Australia Employment Change (JUN) High   16.5k 12.0k
01:30 Australia Unemployment Rate (JUN) High   5.4% 5.4%
06:00 Japan Machine Tool Orders (YoY) (JUN) Low     11.4%
08:30 U.K Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel (YoY) (JUN) Medium   3.7% 4.4%
08:30 U.K Retail Sales Inc Auto Fuel (YoY) (JUN) Low   3.5% 3.9%
12:30 Canada ADP Publishes June Payrolls Report Low      
12:30 U.S Initial Jobless Claims (JUL 14) Medium   221k 214k
12:30 U.S Continuing Claims (JUL 07) Medium   1725k 1739k
12:30 U.S Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook (JUL) Medium   21.5 19.9
14:00 U.S Leading Index (JUN) Medium   0.5% 0.2%
23:30 Japan National Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JUN) High   0.8% 0.7%
23:30 Japan National Consumer Price Index Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) (JUN) Medium   0.8% 0.7%

 

 

Euro

The single currency fell and the yen slid to a six-month low as the dollar extended its rally following bullish comments from U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell about the strength of the U.S. economy. In his closely watched congressional testimony on Tuesday, Powell said he saw the United States on course for years more of steady growth. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1600 and a high of 1.1663 before closing the day around 1.1637 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen pair surged in yesterday’s trading session. The Fed is expected to have hiked a total of four times in 2018 to tackle rising inflationary pressures. The dollar index rose to 95.267, up 0.3 percent on the day and just below its 95.531 12-month high hit in June. The dollar rallied to as high as 113.14 against the yen, its strongest since January 9. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 112.69 and a high of 113.11 before closing the day around 112.82 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound extended Tuesday’s losses after the government narrowly won a vote on its Brexit proposal, underlining the political divisions that have hampered efforts to agree on a united front in negotiating with Brussels. The two-year Treasury yield, most sensitive to the market’s views on changes in Fed policy, has risen to a decade-high.  Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.3008 and a high of 1.3117 before closing the day at 1.3068 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar rose against the U.S dollar, reversing earlier losses after President Donald Trump said he may negotiate separate trade deals with Mexico and Canada. This is not the first time that Trump had suggested bilateral deals with Mexico and Canada, as he vowed to revamp the 24-year old North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.3159 and a high of 1.3257 before closing the day at 1.3166 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar was a shade lower, extending the retreat from Tuesday as the US dollar rose across the board, climbing to a six-month high against the yen, after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell gave an upbeat outlook for the US economy and reinforced views that the Fed was on track to steadily hike interest rates. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7341 and a high of 0.7405 before closing the day at 0.7392 in the New York session.

 

 

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 64 and lies above the neutral zone. In general, the pair has lost 0.21%.

 

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bullish tone and MACD is also indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 52 reading and lies above the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.38%.

 

 Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is also indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 61 reading and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.09%.

  

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bearish tone and MACD is also issuing a bearish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 65 and lies above the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has gained 0.16%.

    

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading above 14, 50 and below 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bullish stance and MACD is also indicating a bullish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 38 and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.45%.

Appendix

  

FOREX Closing Prices for July 18, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.16593 1.16635 1.16006 1.16372 -0.0022
USD/JPY 112.842 113.119 112.691 112.82 -0.0420
GBP/USD 1.3117 1.3117 1.30084 1.3068 -0.0045
USD/CHF 0.99996 1.00329 0.99809 0.99877 -0.0012
USD/CAD 1.31901 1.32573 1.31596 1.31664 -0.0022
EUR/JPY 131.575 131.753 130.86 131.329 -0.2710
GBP/JPY 148.036 148.207 146.84 147.452 -0.5620
CHF/JPY 112.821 112.991 112.625 112.927 0.0930
AUD/JPY 83.353 83.516 82.808 83.446 0.0760
EUR/GBP 0.88866 0.893 0.88721 0.89037 0.0014
EUR/CHF 1.1661 1.16673 1.16003 1.1625 -0.0036
GBP/CHF 1.31182 1.3137 1.30105 1.30541 -0.0059

  

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1541 1.1571 1.1604 1.1634 1.1667 1.1697 1.1730
USD/JPY 112.21 112.45 112.63 112.88 113.06 113.30 113.49
GBP/USD 1.2903 1.2956 1.3012 1.3064 1.3121 1.3173 1.3229
USD/CHF 0.9916 0.9949 0.9968 1.0001 1.0020 1.0053 1.0072
USD/CAD 1.3034 1.3097 1.3132 1.3194 1.3229 1.3292 1.3327
EUR/JPY 129.98 130.42 130.88 131.31 131.77 132.21 132.66
GBP/JPY 145.43 146.13 146.79 147.50 148.16 148.87 149.53
CHF/JPY 112.34 112.48 112.70 112.85 113.07 113.21 113.44
AUD/JPY 82.29 82.55 83.00 83.26 83.71 83.96 84.41
EUR/GBP 0.8816 0.8844 0.8874 0.8902 0.8932 0.8960 0.8990
EUR/CHF 1.1527 1.1564 1.1594 1.1631 1.1661 1.1698 1.1728
GBP/CHF 1.2871 1.2941 1.2997 1.3067 1.3124 1.3194 1.3250

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

 

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

18 Jul 2018

Daily Market View

         

Daily Market View

Wednesday, July 18, 2018
          U.S Stock Market

 

DJIA S & P 500 NASDAQ
25104 2811.25 7420.50
+0.31% +0.49% +0.70%

U.S stock rose yesterday, extending a recent upswing after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated the U.S. central bank wouldn’t move too quickly in changing monetary policy, and that it would be flexible in the face of changing conditions. Traders also digested the latest round of corporate earnings, which came in mixed but nevertheless showed strong growth. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 46 points, or 0.2%. The blue-chip average is on track for its fourth straight advance, as well as its eighth rise of the past nine sessions. The S&P 500 was up by 11 points, or 0.4%. The NASDAQ advanced by 46 points, or 0.6%, hitting its latest in a series of intraday records. The day’s gains were broad, with 10 of the 11 primary S&P 500 sectors higher on the day. Leading the move higher was the materials sector, which rose 1.4%, and technology stocks, up 0.8%. Appearing in front of the Senate Banking Committee, Powell said the “best way forward is to keep gradually raising the federal-funds rate for now.”

 

Major Economic Releases for Today
Period Event GMT Forecast Previous

jun

U.K Consumer Price Index (YoY) 08:30 2.6% 2.4%

may

U.K House Price Index (YoY) 08:30 3.7% 3.9%

jun

Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (YoY) 09:00 2.0% 1.9%

jul

U.S MBA Mortgage Applications 11:00   2.5%

jun

U.S Housing Starts (MoM) 12:30 -2.2% 5.0%

jun

U.S Building Permits (MoM) 12:30 2.2% -4.6%

 

U.S Fed Chairman Powell Appears Before House Panel 14:00    

jul

DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories 14:30   -12633k

 

U.S Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book 18:00    
Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.22% to hit a new 1-month high. The best performers of the session on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were Johnson & Johnson, which rose 3.54% or 4.42 points to trade at 129.11 at the close. Meanwhile, DowDuPont Inc. added 2.04% or 1.34 points to end at 67.06 and United Technologies Corporation was up 1.34% or 1.73 points to 130.71 in late trade. The worst performers of the session were UnitedHealth Group Incorporated, which fell 2.60% or 6.69 points to trade at 250.29 at the close. International Business Machines declined 1.35% or 1.97 points to end at 143.49 and Chevron Corp was down 0.87% or 1.07 points to 121.91.

 

 

NASDAQ 100

The NASDAQ index climbed 0.63%. The top performers were Ameri Holdings Inc. which rose 47.46% to 1.74, Riot Blockchain Inc. which was up 37.64% to settle at 6.2900 and Champions Oncology Inc. which gained 25.43% to close at 7.3000. The worst performers were Alliance MMA Inc. which was down 31.09% to 0.20 in late trade, MER Telemanagement Solutions Ltd which lost 27.46% to settle at 2.0600 and AVEO Pharmaceuticals Inc. which was down 24.21% to 2.1600 at the close.

 

Oil

Crude oil futures steadied yesterday as the focus turned to falling inventories in the United States and further output constraints in Venezuela and Libya. Supply disruptions in Venezuela returned to the forefront as two of the country’s four crude upgraders are scheduled to undergo maintenance in the next few weeks. The units have the ability to process a combined 700,000 barrels per day and are used to prepare extra-heavy oil for export. Every time there’s an update that the situation in Venezuela is, in fact, worsening, it props up the market. U.S crude settled up 2 cents at $68.08 a barrel. In addition to Venezuela’s falling output, traders are also looking at U.S. inventories, which are expected to decline 3.5 million barrels in the week to July 13, according to a preliminary Reuters poll. Oil prices have fallen by almost 10 percent over the past week as crude export terminals in Libya have reopened.

 
Precious and Base Metals

Gold declined more than 1 percent and hit its lowest in a year yesterday as the U.S dollar strengthened during testimony by U.S Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to the U.S Congress. Powell offered an upbeat view of the U.S. economy in an appearance before the Senate Banking Committee, with markets expecting two more interest rate increases this year amid a continued economic expansion. The dollar, in which gold is priced, gained against a basket of currencies during the testimony, making gold more expensive for non-U.S. investors. The dollar is really reacting to this ‘goldilocks’ effect of the economy and a slowly rising interest rate environment. That is usually a recipe for a stronger dollar. Higher interest rates make gold more expensive to own since bullion does not earn any interest or dividends, and costs money to store and insure. Spot gold was 1.1 percent lower at $1,226.91 per ounce, having earlier hit its lowest since last July at $1,225.58. The metal is down more than 5 percent for the year. U.S gold futures for August delivery settled down $12.40, or 1 percent, at $1,227.30 per ounce. The International Monetary Fund warned on Monday that escalating trade tensions following U.S. tariff actions threaten to depress medium-term growth prospects. The comments came as China reported slower second quarter growth, though Beijing said that would not affect its 2018 growth target. UBS economists lowered their estimates for Chinese growth to take into account trade war escalation. If China is slowing down, there will be consequences to global commodity consumption and that’s going to drag gold down as well. Chinese gold ETF liquidity has dropped a lot these days so that means people do not see any major breakthrough in either direction. Demand for gold in top-consumer China has been weak as an ongoing trade dispute with United States has weakened the local currency. Silver fell 0.9 percent to $15.60 an ounce, dipping to $15.51, its lowest since July 2017.

 

 

 

 

Traditional Agriculture

Soybean and corn futures rose in yesterday’s trading session after the U.S Department of Agriculture (USDA) said the condition of both crops in the United States is declining.

 

Futures Settlement Price Tuesday, July 17, 2018
Instrument Contract Open High Low Settlement Net Change
DJIA DJM18 25043 25139 24969 25104 63
S & P 500 SPM18 2795.75 2815.5 2789.75 2811.25 14.5
NASDAQ 100 NDM18 7319.5 7435.5 7292.25 7420.5 97.25
Hang Seng HSH18 28382 28468 28117 28188 -318
Nikkei 225 NKH18 22520 22810 22510 22720 120
FTSE 100 FTH18 7542.5 7620 7517 7594 36
Gold GCJ18 1240.7 1244.9 1225.7 1227.2 -13.6
Silver SIK18 1580 1587.5 1555 1557 -22.5
Copper HGK18 276.6 279.9 274.2 274.4 -2.3
Crude Oil CLK18 67.99 68.4 67 67.56 -0.41
Wheat WK18 490.25 504 487.25 498 9.75
Soybeans SK18 835.75 843 829.75 839 10.5
Corn CK18 345 348.25 343.75 345.75 4.25

 

 

Daily Swings  (The Pivot Levels)
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
DJM18 24832 24901 25002 25071 25172 25241 25342
SPM18 2769.75 2779.75 2795.50 2805.50 2821.25 2831.25 2847.00
NDM18 7186.75 7239.50 7330.00 7382.75 7473.25 7526.00 7616.50
HSH18 27696 27907 28047 28258 28398 28609 28749
NKH18 22250 22380 22550 22680 22850 22980 23150
FTH18 7431.00 7474.00 7534.00 7577.00 7637.00 7680.00 7740.00
GCJ18 1201.10 1213.40 1220.30 1232.60 1239.50 1251.80 1258.70
SIK18 1513.00 1534.00 1545.50 1566.50 1578.00 1599.00 1610.50
HGK18 266.73 270.47 272.43 276.17 278.13 281.87 283.83
CLK18 65.51 66.25 66.91 67.65 68.31 69.05 69.71
WK18 472.08 479.67 488.83 496.42 505.58 513.17 522.33
SK18 818.25 824.00 831.50 837.25 844.75 850.50 858.00
CK18 339.08 341.42 343.58 345.92 348.08 350.42 352.58

 Source: – News & Quotes (Courtesy:  Reuters)        

                                                            

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

 

 

18 Jul 2018

FOREX Newsletter

       

FOREX Newsletter

July 18, 2018

Pulse of the Market

·      Fed Chair said strong growth should keep the central bank on track to keep raising interest rates

·      The euro slid against the firmer dollar, with EUR/USD losing 0.2% to trade at 1.1685

·      Prime Minister Theresa May facing threats from both sides of the Brexit divide

·      U.S industrial production rebounded in June, boosted by a sharp rebound in manufacturing

The U.S Dollar rose against its rivals yesterday, as Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell gave lawmakers a positive assessment of the economy, and expects to continue raising interest rates gradually. The U.S dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, rose by 0.52% to 94.76. In his semi-annual testimony to Congress yesterday, Powell said the “best way forward” is to continue raising rates, as the job market has strengthened and inflation has moved above the Fed’s 2% target. Powell largely echoed the Fed’s recent comments from its June meeting, when the Fed raised interest rates, and hinted at two further rate hikes for this year. Powell could offer further clues on monetary policy when he testifies before the House Financial Services Committee today. Rate Monitor Tool, 85.6% of traders expects the Fed to hike rates in September, and 56.2% of traders expect the Fed to hike rates again in December. Economic data showing U.S. industrial production rebounded in June, boosted by a sharp rebound in manufacturing, and gains in mining output, had a somewhat muted impact on the greenback. Industrial production – a measure of output at factories, mines and utilities – rose to a seasonally-adjusted 0.6% in June from a revised 0.5% decline the prior month, the Federal Reserve said Tuesday. This was slightly above the 0.5% rise forecast by economists. The Dollar’s move higher was also supported by a fall in both the pound and euro. Sterling came under pressure amid soft UK data and expectations that Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit bill could face another challenge in Parliament. The pound was broadly weaker, with GBP/USD falling 0.55% to 1.3164 as fresh political uncertainty weighed ahead of another crunch vote in the UK parliament later in the day, with Prime Minister Theresa May facing threats from both sides of the Brexit divide. On Monday, the International Monetary Fund warned that escalating trade tensions are threatening to derail the economic recovery, adding that financial markets seem complacent to the mounting risk. USD/CAD rose as a rise in expectations for a Bank of Canada rate hike on the back of bullish factory sales data failed to lift the loonie.

 

   

 

Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
08:30 U.K Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JUN) High 2.6% 2.4%
08:30 U.K Retail Price Index (YoY) (JUN) Low 3.5% 3.3%
08:30 U.K House Price Index (YoY) (MAY) Medium 3.7% 3.9%
09:00 Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JUN) Medium 2.0% 1.9%
11:00 U.S MBA Mortgage Applications (JUL 13) Medium 2.5%
12:30 U.S Housing Starts (MoM) (JUN) Medium -2.2% 5.0%
12:30 U.S Building Permits (MoM) (JUN) Medium 2.2% -4.6%
14:00 U.S Fed Chairman Powell Appears Before House Panel High
14:30 DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (JUL 13) Medium -12633k
18:00 U.S Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book Medium
23:50 Japan Trade Balance (JUN) Medium ¥531.2b -¥578.3b
23:50 Japan Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance (Yen) (JUN) Low ¥155.0b -¥296.8b

 

 

Euro

The single currency posted gains yesterday. In economic news, there were no events in the Eurozone. The U.S releases manufacturing and housing indicators. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell testifies before the Senate Banking Committee. Today, the Eurozone releases Final CPI and the U.S publishes building permits and housing starts. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1648 and a high of 1.1743 before closing the day around 1.1659 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen pair traded higher at 112.48 in yesterday’s session ahead of the Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s semi-annual testimony on the economy and monetary policy. Overall, the dollar index was weaker against a basket of six major currencies (-0.03%) and is set to post the third consecutive negative day. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 112.20 and a high of 112.90 before closing the day around 112.86 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound touched a session high of 1.3267 after the Office for National Statistics revised April’s average earnings index (including bonuses) from 2.5% to 2.6%. The pair, though, soon fell later in the day as the BoE chief Mark Carney highlighted during his testimony that a no-Brexit deal could be a risk to interest rates.  Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.3067 and a high of 1.3267 before closing the day at 1.3113 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar was mostly weaker yesterday. The loonie is currently selling off against the US dollar and the Euro. Falling WTI crude oil prices are catching up to the Canadian dollar. Given the lack of significant economic developments from Canada, the loonie traded as a function of broader developments in financial markets. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.3108 and a high of 1.3216 before closing the day at 1.3188 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar was subdued yesterday as the country’s central bank expressed concern about the impact of high household debt on the economy while the New Zealand dollar maintained recent ranges. The currency is now down more than 5 per cent since the start of the year when it traded above 80 US cents. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7374 and a high of 0.7436 before closing the day at 0.7384 in the New York session.

 

 

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 68 and lies above the neutral zone. In general, the pair has gained 0.08%.

 

 Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bullish tone and MACD is also indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 59 reading and lies above the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.38%.

 

 Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is also indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 60 reading and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 11%.

 

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bearish tone and MACD is also issuing a bearish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 61 and lies above the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has gained 0.49%.

 

 Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading above 14, 50 and below 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bullish stance and MACD is also indicating a bullish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 43 and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.58%.

 

Appendix

 

FOREX Closing Prices for July 17, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.17137 1.17433 1.16487 1.16597 -0.0050
USD/JPY 112.27 112.905 112.206 112.862 0.5950
GBP/USD 1.32324 1.32671 1.30674 1.31133 -0.0120
USD/CHF 0.99661 1.00003 0.99251 0.99994 0.0034
USD/CAD 1.31384 1.32168 1.31086 1.31884 0.0055
EUR/JPY 131.513 131.969 131.433 131.6 0.1060
GBP/JPY 148.579 149.066 147.553 148.014 -0.5650
CHF/JPY 112.622 113.234 112.53 112.834 0.2110
AUD/JPY 83.281 83.571 83.181 83.37 0.0890
EUR/GBP 0.88498 0.8913 0.88382 0.88899 0.0043
EUR/CHF 1.16728 1.16795 1.16379 1.16606 -0.0011
GBP/CHF 1.31897 1.32069 1.30685 1.31134 -0.0076

   

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1530 1.1589 1.1625 1.1684 1.1719 1.1779 1.1814
USD/JPY 111.71 111.96 112.41 112.66 113.11 113.36 113.81
GBP/USD 1.2832 1.2950 1.3031 1.3149 1.3231 1.3349 1.3431
USD/CHF 0.9874 0.9900 0.9950 0.9975 1.0025 1.0050 1.0100
USD/CAD 1.3018 1.3063 1.3126 1.3171 1.3234 1.3279 1.3342
EUR/JPY 130.83 131.13 131.37 131.67 131.90 132.20 132.44
GBP/JPY 145.84 146.70 147.36 148.21 148.87 149.72 150.38
CHF/JPY 111.79 112.16 112.50 112.87 113.20 113.57 113.91
AUD/JPY 82.79 82.98 83.18 83.37 83.57 83.76 83.96
EUR/GBP 0.8773 0.8806 0.8848 0.8880 0.8923 0.8955 0.8997
EUR/CHF 1.1598 1.1618 1.1639 1.1659 1.1681 1.1701 1.1722
GBP/CHF 1.2914 1.2991 1.3052 1.3130 1.3191 1.3268 1.3329

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

 

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

17 Jul 2018

FOREX Newsletter

           

FOREX Newsletter

July 17, 2018

Pulse of the Market

·      The U.S Commerce Department said yesterday that core retail sales rose 0.4% last month

·      The Empire State manufacturing index fell 2.4 points in July to a reading of 22.60

·      GBP fell ahead of slew of data this week which could determine the prospect of BOE rate hike

·      The Canadian Dollar rose against many of its rivals in yesterday’s trading session

The U.S Dollar was slightly lower against its rivals yesterday, as in-line U.S retail sales data, and slightly better than forecast regional manufacturing activity provided little impetus for upside in the greenback. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, fell by 0.14% to 94.31, down from a session high of 94.53. The Commerce Department said on Monday that core retail sales rose 0.4% last month, compared with an upwardly revised 1.4% increase for May. The retail sales control group – which has a larger impact on U.S. GDP – came in at 0.0% missing expectations for a 0.4% rise. The Empire State manufacturing index fell 2.4 points in July to a reading of 22.60, the New York Federal Reserve said yesterday. The dollar was also kept on the back foot by an uptick in safe-currencies like the yen and Swiss Franc amid fresh trade concerns after the U.S. filed complaints to the World Trade Organization (WTO) against China, Canada, EU, Mexico and Turkey in response to retaliatory tariffs.  The subdued start to the week for the greenback comes as traders awaited further clues on monetary policy as Fed chairman Jerome Powell is expected to testify on the economy and monetary policy before the U.S. Senate Banking Committee today. Ahead of Powell’s appearance, the Fed gave a positive assessment of the U.S. economy, insisting that strong labor markets and inflation would support the central bank’s plan to continue with gradual rate hikes. GBP/USD fell 0.02% to $1.3232, ahead of slew of data this week which could determine the prospect of an August Bank of England rate hike as average wage data is expected Tuesday, while inflation figures and retail sales are due later in the week. The Canadian dollar drifted higher yesterday, benefiting from the greenback’s overall weakness, but the outlook remained tilted to the downside amid global trade tensions with the United States and the European Union.

 

   

 

Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
01:30 RBA July Meeting Minutes Medium      
01:30 China New Home Prices (MoM) (JUN) Medium     0.8%
04:00 Japan Tokyo Condominium Sales (YoY) (JUN) Low     -5.4%
08:00 BOE’s Carney, Cunliffe, Stheeman Speak on Financial Stability High      
08:30 U.K Claimant Count Rate (JUN) Medium     2.5%
08:30 U.K Jobless Claims Change (JUN) Medium     -7.7k
08:30 U.K Average Weekly Earnings (3M/YoY) (MAY) Medium   2.5% 2.5%
08:30 U.K ILO Unemployment Rate 3Mths (MAY) Medium   4.2% 4.2%
08:30 U.K Employment Change 3M/3M (MAY) Medium   115k 146k
12:30 Canada Manufacturing Sales (MoM) (MAY) Low   0.5% -1.3%
13:15 U.S Industrial Production (MoM) (JUN) Medium   0.5% -0.1%
13:15 U.S Manufacturing (SIC) Production (JUN) Medium   0.6% -0.7%
14:00 U.S NAHB Housing Market Index (JUL) Medium   69 68
14:00 U.S Powell to Deliver Semi-Annual Testimony Before Senate Panel High      
20:00 U.S Net Long-term TIC Flows (MAY) Medium     $93.9b

Euro

The single currency posted gains yesterday. In economic news, the Eurozone trade surplus slipped to EUR 16.9 billion, short of the estimate of EUR 17.6 billion. This marked the lowest surplus since January 2017. In the U.S, the focus was on consumer spending reports. In today’s session, Federal Reserve Chair will testify before the Senate Banking Committee. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1674 and a high of 1.1724 before closing the day around 1.1709 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen pair slipped in yesterday’s trading session. The USD/JPY pair had a difficult time setting its next short-term direction yesterday amid a subdued trading action surrounding the FX markets. After advancing to mid-112 during the first half of the day, the USD/JPY pair lacked a follow-through as this move. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 112.21 and a high of 112.54 before closing the day around 112.26 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound has recorded slight gains. In North American trade, the pair traded 0.24% on the day. On the release front, British Rightmove HPI surprised with a decline of -0.1%, its first decline since December. In the U.S, core retail sales dropped to 0.4%, matching the estimate. Retail sales dropped to 0.5%, edging above 0.4%.  Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.3215 and a high of 1.3290 before closing the day at 1.3233 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar drifted higher against the U.S. currency yesterday, benefiting from the greenback’s overall weakness, but the outlook remained tilted to the downside amid global trade tensions with the United States and the European Union. Against other currencies, such as the euro and sterling, the Canadian mostly underperformed on the day. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.3107 and a high of 1.3158 before closing the day at 1.3133 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar depreciated against the dollar following the release of a slew of China data yesterday. China’s economy expanded 6.7% in the second quarter, its slowest pace since 2016, although the growth is still above the government’s target of “about 6.5%” growth for the year. While the official GDP readings were largely in line with market expectations. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7407 and a high of 0.7440 before closing the day at 0.7412 in the New York session.

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 66 and lies above the neutral zone. In general, the pair has gained 0.19%.

 

 Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bullish tone and MACD is also indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 64 reading and lies above the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.06%.

 

 Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is also indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 58 reading and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 07%.

 

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bearish tone and MACD is also issuing a bearish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 55 and lies above the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has gained 0.23%.

  

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading above 14, 50 and below 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bullish stance and MACD is also indicating a bullish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 52 and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.49%.

 

Appendix

 

FOREX Closing Prices for July 16, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.16796 1.1724 1.16742 1.17099 0.0028
USD/JPY 112.369 112.544 112.21 112.267 -0.0620
GBP/USD 1.32264 1.32909 1.32151 1.3233 0.0000
USD/CHF 1.00201 1.00228 0.9961 0.99653 -0.0050
USD/CAD 1.31575 1.31589 1.31074 1.31337 -0.0018
EUR/JPY 131.255 131.674 131.239 131.494 0.2520
GBP/JPY 148.642 149.287 148.495 148.579 -0.0920
CHF/JPY 112.108 112.684 112.095 112.623 0.4870
AUD/JPY 83.321 83.654 83.19 83.281 -0.0570
EUR/GBP 0.88284 0.88519 0.88145 0.88464 0.0021
EUR/CHF 1.17045 1.17118 1.16679 1.16715 -0.0029
GBP/CHF 1.32545 1.32641 1.31828 1.31895 -0.0065

  

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1632 1.1653 1.1681 1.1703 1.1731 1.1753 1.1781
USD/JPY 111.80 112.01 112.14 112.34 112.47 112.67 112.80
GBP/USD 1.3126 1.3171 1.3202 1.3246 1.3278 1.3322 1.3353
USD/CHF 0.9881 0.9921 0.9943 0.9983 1.0005 1.0045 1.0067
USD/CAD 1.3056 1.3082 1.3108 1.3133 1.3159 1.3185 1.3211
EUR/JPY 130.83 131.03 131.26 131.47 131.70 131.90 132.13
GBP/JPY 147.50 148.00 148.29 148.79 149.08 149.58 149.87
CHF/JPY 111.66 111.88 112.25 112.47 112.84 113.06 113.43
AUD/JPY 82.63 82.91 83.10 83.38 83.56 83.84 84.02
EUR/GBP 0.8786 0.8800 0.8823 0.8838 0.8861 0.8875 0.8898
EUR/CHF 1.1612 1.1640 1.1656 1.1684 1.1700 1.1728 1.1743
GBP/CHF 1.3079 1.3131 1.3160 1.3212 1.3241 1.3293 1.3323

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

 

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

17 Jul 2018

Daily  Market View

Tuesday, July 17, 2018

          U.S Stock Market

 

DJIA S & P 500 NASDAQ
25041 2796.75 7323.25
+0.18% -0.10% -0.26%

The Dow industrials bucked the trend of an otherwise downbeat session yesterday as upbeat economic data and a fresh round of quarterly results failed to stoke buying appetite. Investors also watched President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin convene for a summit in Helsinki, Finland but reaction to a joint conference with the two leaders was muted. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 44.95 points, a rise of 0.2%, thanks partly to gains in shares of components JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. The blue-chip benchmark has gained seven of the past eight sessions and 10 of the past 12. The S&P 500 index meanwhile, fell 2.88 points, a loss of 0.1%. Financials led the gains, rising 1.8%, but that advance was counterbalanced by losses in energy shares, which slid 1.2%, and materials and health-care sectors, which declined 0.8% and 0.7% respectively. The NASDAQ Index declined by 20.26 points, or 0.3%. U.S. retail sales rose 0.5% in June, as had been expected. Separately, the Empire State Index fell 2.4 points to 22.6 in July.

 

 

Major Economic Releases for Today
Period Event GMT Forecast Previous

jul

RBA July Meeting Minutes 01:30    

jun

China New Home Prices (MoM) 01:30   0.8%

 

BOE’s Carney, Cunliffe, Stheeman Speak on Financial Stability 08:00    

jun

U.K Claimant Count Rate 08:30   2.5%

jun

U.K Jobless Claims Change 08:30   -7.7k

may

U.K Average Weekly Earnings (3M/YoY) 08:30 2.5% 2.5%

jun

U.S Industrial Production (MoM) 13:15 0.5% -0.1%

jul

U.S NAHB Housing Market Index 14:00 69 68

 

U.S Powell to Deliver Semi-Annual Testimony Before Senate Panel 14:00    
Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.18% yesterday. The best performers of the session on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were JPMorgan Chase & Co, which rose 3.97% or 4.22 points to trade at 110.58 at the close. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. added 2.22% or 5.03 points to end at 231.44 and Cisco Systems Inc. was up 1.72% or 0.72 points to 42.50 in late trade. The worst performers of the session were Caterpillar Inc., which fell 1.90% or 2.67 points to trade at 138.08 at the close. Exxon Mobil Corp declined 0.98% or 0.82 points to end at 82.49 and Johnson & Johnson was down 0.98% or 1.24 points to 124.69.

 

NASDAQ 100

The tech heavy NASDAQ declined 0.26% yesterday. The top performers were MER Telemanagement Solutions Ltd which rose 79.75% to 2.8400, Coda Octopus Group Inc. which was up 64.44% to settle at 6.1500 and Genetic Technologies Ltd which gained 35.78% to close at 1.480. The worst performers were Innovate Biopharmaceuticals Inc. which was down 65.91% to 8.08 in late trade, Ability Inc. which lost 28.81% to settle at 5.05 and ShiftPixy Inc. which was down 27.92% to 3.33 at the close.

Oil

Oil prices extended early losses yesterday, dropping about $3 a barrel, after Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin said some crude importers may receive waivers to continue buying supplies from Iran, despite U.S. sanctions on the Middle Eastern country. Mnuchin told the reporters the Trump administration wants to avoid roiling global oil markets as it seeks to pressure Iran to make concessions on its nuclear program, ballistic missile tests and its role in regional conflicts. President Donald Trump withdrew the United States from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal and restored sanctions on Tehran in May. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices ended Monday’s session down $2.95, or 4.2 percent, at $68.06. WTI has fallen for two weeks in a row, dropping from a 3½-year high above $75 a barrel. The Trump administration sent oil prices soaring three weeks ago after a senior State Department official told reporters the agency had been pushing Europeans to cut their oil purchases from Iran to zero by Nov. 4.

 
Precious and Base Metals

Gold steadied yesterday as weak physical demand in top-consuming regions and the expectation of higher U.S. interest rates weigh, despite the bullion-priced U.S dollar losing steam. Spot gold lost 0.2 percent at $1,239.11 per ounce. U.S gold futures for August delivery settled down $1.50, or 0.1 percent, at $1,239.70 per ounce. A lower U.S. currency makes dollar-denominated gold cheaper for holders of other currencies, which typically boosts bullion demand. However, low physical demand in top gold-consuming countries China and India and the continued expectation of the U.S. Federal Reserve to raise interest rates pressured bullion. It seems the second quarter Chinese figures are putting a damper on the metals. China’s economy expanded at a slower pace in the second quarter as Beijing’s efforts to contain debt hurt activity, while June factory output growth weakened to a two-year low. India’s gold imports fell for a sixth month in June to 44 tonnes as a drop in the rupee lifted local prices to their highest in nearly 21 months, curtailing demand. Indian and China retail consumption has been hindered by depreciating local FX. Investors may favor gold again, especially if trade friction rises further and becomes a more sizeable threat to economic growth and to the decade-long equity market Bull Run. The U.S. dollar fell as investors pared back long bets on the greenback and rebalanced their positions ahead of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s first congressional testimony today. He is expected to reiterate the Fed’s gradual monetary policy tightening. Gold does not earn any interest or dividends and costs money to store and insure. Meanwhile, holdings for the largest gold-backed exchange-traded-fund (ETF), New York’s SPDR Gold Trust, have fallen more than 8 percent since late April to less than 26 million ounces, showing fading investor interest in bullion. Silver lost 0.1 percent at $15.77 per ounce. Platinum slipped 0.2 percent at $824.10 an ounce. Palladium declined 2.2 percent at $916.47 an ounce.

 

 

Traditional Agriculture

Soybean futures jumped yesterday after dropping to their lowest prices in a decade earlier in the session, as the U.S-China trade dispute looms over agricultural markets.

 

Futures Settlement Price Monday, July 16, 2018
Instrument Contract Open High Low Settlement Net Change
DJIA DJM18 25017 25088 24960 25041 39
S & P 500 SPM18 2804.75 2808.75 2795 2796.75 -6.25
NASDAQ 100 NDM18 7398.5 7413 7321.25 7323.25 -68.75
Hang Seng HSH18 28613 28696 28296 28506 -48
Nikkei 225 NKH18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
FTSE 100 FTH18 7591 7609 7500.5 7558 -49
Gold GCJ18 1243.1 1245.5 1238.1 1240.8 -0.2
Silver SIK18 1585 1589 1575 1579.5 -0.5
Copper HGK18 278.45 279.75 274.4 276.7 -0.85
Crude Oil CLK18 70.7 70.84 67.55 67.97 -3.03
Wheat WK18 495.5 498 486.5 488.25 -7.5
Soybeans SK18 819.5 837.5 810.25 828.5 10.5
Corn CK18 339.25 345.25 338.5 341.5 1

 

 

Daily Swings  (The Pivot Levels)
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
DJM18 24843 24902 24971 25030 25099 25158 25227
SPM18 2777.83 2786.42 2791.58 2800.17 2805.33 2813.92 2819.08
NDM18 7200.25 7260.75 7292.00 7352.50 7383.75 7444.25 7475.50
HSH18 27903 28099 28303 28499 28703 28899 29103
NKH18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
FTH18 7394.17 7447.33 7502.67 7555.83 7611.17 7664.33 7719.67
GCJ18 1230.03 1234.07 1237.43 1241.47 1244.83 1248.87 1252.23
SIK18 1559.33 1567.17 1573.33 1581.17 1587.33 1595.17 1601.33
HGK18 268.80 271.60 274.15 276.95 279.50 282.30 284.85
CLK18 63.44 65.50 66.73 68.79 70.02 72.08 73.31
WK18 472.33 479.42 483.83 490.92 495.33 502.42 506.83
SK18 786.08 798.17 813.33 825.42 840.58 852.67 867.83
CK18 331.50 335.00 338.25 341.75 345.00 348.50 351.75

  Source: – News & Quotes (Courtesy:  Reuters)     

                                                               

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

 

16 Jul 2018

  Daily Market View

   

Daily Market View

Monday, July 16, 2018
          U.S Stock Market

 

DJIA S & P 500 NASDAQ
25002 2803.00 7392.00
+0.38% +0.11% +0.03%

The benchmark S&P 500 index hit a more than five-month high on Friday on gains in industrial stocks and energy companies, while the safe-haven Dollar flattened after touching a two-week high. Gold slipped to seven-month lows and Treasury prices gained after the Federal Reserve reinforced views of strong U.S. economic growth in a report to Congress, reinforcing expectations of higher interest rates. The U.S. central bank reiterated that it “expects that further gradual increases” in interest rates would be appropriate given “solid” growth. An absence of rhetoric about a U.S-China trade war helped industrial stocks, as did remarks on Thursday from U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, who said that the U.S and China might reopen trade talks. Despite the ominous headlines about a trade war with China, we’re comfortable with U.S. equities at current prices amid favorable macro trends and surging earnings growth. The Dow rose 94.52 points, or 0.38 percent, to 25,019.41, the S&P 500 gained 3.02 points, or 0.11 percent and the NASDAQ added 2.06 points, or 0.03 percent.

 

Major Economic Releases for Today
Period Event GMT Forecast Previous

jun

China Surveyed Jobless Rate 02:00   4.8%

2Q

China Gross Domestic Product (YoY) 02:00 6.7% 6.8%

jun

China Retail Sales (YoY) 02:00 8.8% 8.5%

may

Euro-Zone Trade Balance (euros) 09:00 17.6b 17.6b

jul

U.S Empire Manufacturing 12:30 21 25

jun

U.S Retail Sales Advance (MoM) 12:30 0.5% 0.8%

jun

Canada Existing Home Sales (MoM) 13:00 1.7% -0.1%

jun

New Zealand REINZ House Sales (YoY) 21:00   1.3%

2Q

New Zealand Consumer Price Index (YoY) 22:45 1.6% 1.1%
Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.38%. The best performers of the session on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were United Technologies Corporation, which rose 1.70% or 2.16 points to trade at 129.51 at the close. Meanwhile, Walt Disney Company added 1.61% or 1.74 points to end at 109.99 and Boeing Co was up 1.39% or 4.80 points to 350.83 in late trade. The worst performers of the session were Cisco Systems Inc., which fell 4.13% or 1.80 points to trade at 41.78 at the close. Johnson & Johnson declined 1.44% or 1.84 points to end at 125.92 and American Express Company was down 0.66% or 0.67 points to 100.48.

 

 

NASDAQ 100

The tech heavy NASDAQ index climbed 0.03%. The top performers on the NASDAQ Composite were ShiftPixy Inc. which rose 68.61% to 4.62, SenesTech Inc. which was up 20.74% to settle at 1.63 and Galmed Pharmaceuticals Ltd which gained 19.34% to close at 15.240. The worst performers were Auris Medical Holding AG which was down 47.14% to 0.296 in late trade, Izea Inc. which lost 26.17% to settle at 1.8900 and Helios and Matheson Analytics Inc. which was down 18.03% to 0.150 at the close.

Oil

Oil prices rose about 1 percent on Friday as strike actions in Norway and Iraq hit supplies, but futures were set for a second straight week of decline after Libyan ports reopened and on the view that Iran might still export some crude despite U.S. sanctions. Brent crude rose 88 cents to settle at $75.33 a barrel, a 1.18 percent gain. The global benchmark fell about 2.7 percent for the week. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose 68 cents to settle at $71.01 a barrel, but lost about 3.9 percent this week. The market pared gains late in the session on a Bloomberg report that the Trump administration is actively considering tapping in to the country’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which would add supply to the market. The United States holds a reserve of about 660 million barrels, enough for about three or four months of supply. Hundreds of workers on Norwegian offshore oil and gas rigs went on strike on Tuesday after rejecting a proposed wage deal.

 
Precious and Base Metals

Gold prices were muted on Friday, stuck in a tight trading range, as the dollar extended rally from the previous session when strong U.S inflation data and trade war concerns boosted demand for the greenback. Spot gold was down 0.1 percent at $1,245.54 an ounce. For the week, the metal was down 0.7 percent. The dollar has been a prime mover of gold prices. Market sentiments have been largely positive on the greenback as investors pivoted from the safe haven asset despite rising geopolitical risks. The dollar was buoyant near a 10-day peak versus a basket of currencies on Friday, supported by Treasury yields that edged higher on expectations the U.S. inflation rate will rise. U.S. consumer price data on Thursday showed a steady buildup of inflation that could keep the Federal Reserve on a path of gradual interest rate increases. A stronger dollar and higher U.S. rates reduce demand for non-interest bearing gold as the metal becomes more expensive for holders of other currencies. Elsewhere, the European Central Bank will keep rates at a record low for as long as needed to raise inflation, minutes of the bank’s latest meeting showed. Meanwhile, Most Asian share markets rose on Friday, but China’s markets wobbled as investors braced for the impact of broadening, tit-for-tat Chinese-U.S tariffs. The United States and China could reopen talks on trade but only if Beijing is willing to make significant changes, U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said on Thursday. The trade war issue is still creating a lot of uncertainty. If the situation continues and we’re not seeing any real movements in gold prices because of it, we might see prices actually move lower. During times of uncertainty gold prices can receive a boost as the metal is widely considered a safe-haven asset but bullion has failed to benefit from recent trade disputes. Holdings in SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, dropped 0.48 percent to 795.19 tonnes on Thursday.

 

 

Traditional Agricultures

Soybean futures slid to fresh lows on Friday and the most-active contract closed at the lowest in nearly a decade after a government report reinforced concerns that the trade dispute with China will dent exports and lead to a build-up in stocks.

 

 

 

Futures Settlement Price Friday, July 13, 2018
Instrument Contract Open High Low Settlement Net Change
DJIA DJM18 24902 25026 24867 25002 110
S & P 500 SPM18 2798.5 2807.25 2793.25 2803 4.5
NASDAQ 100 NDM18 7381.75 7413.5 7367 7392 9.75
Hang Seng HSH18 28739 28763 28473 28554 67
Nikkei 225 NKH18 22365 22670 22360 22600 395
FTSE 100 FTH18 7625 7655 7595 7607 -3.5
Gold GCJ18 1246.9 1248.2 1236 1241 -6.4
Silver SIK18 1596.5 1600.5 1569 1580 -16.5
Copper HGK18 277.65 278.85 274.95 277.55 -0.1
Crude Oil CLK18 70.34 71.62 69.8 71 0.69
Wheat WK18 483.5 497.25 481 495.75 12
Soybeans SK18 835.5 837 811.25 818 -14.75
Corn CK18 345.25 346.25 338.75 340.5 -4.75

 

 

Daily Swings  (The Pivot Levels)
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2
DJM18 24745 24806 24904 24965 25063 25124 25222
SPM18 2781.08 2787.17 2795.08 2801.17 2809.08 2815.17 2823.08
NDM18 7321.67 7344.33 7368.17 7390.83 7414.67 7437.33 7461.17
HSH18 28140 28307 28430 28597 28720 28887 29010
NKH18 22107 22233 22417 22543 22727 22853 23037
FTH18 7523.00 7559.00 7583.00 7619.00 7643.00 7679.00 7703.00
GCJ18 1223.07 1229.53 1235.27 1241.73 1247.47 1253.93 1259.67
SIK18 1534.33 1551.67 1565.83 1583.17 1597.33 1614.67 1628.83
HGK18 271.48 273.22 275.38 277.12 279.28 281.02 283.18
CLK18 68.17 68.99 69.99 70.81 71.81 72.63 73.63
WK18 469.17 475.08 485.42 491.33 501.67 507.58 517.92
SK18 781.42 796.33 807.17 822.08 832.92 847.83 858.67
CK18 329.92 334.33 337.42 341.83 344.92 349.33 352.42

 Source: – News & Quotes (Courtesy:  Reuters)                                                                    

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

 

 

16 Jul 2018

FOREX Newsletter

         

FOREX Newsletter

July 16, 2018
 

 

Pulse of the Market

·      The Dollar dipped against a currency basket on Friday, pulling away from two week highs

·      Investors will be looking ahead to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s testimony on the economy

·      The Euro edged higher against the dollar in late trade, with EUR/USD rising 0.13% to 1.1686

·      The Sterling pushed higher late Friday, with GBP/USD gaining 0.23% to trade at 1.3235

The U.S Dollar dipped against a basket of currencies on Friday, fading from a two-week peak which was tied to news of a record Chinese trade surplus that may fuel U.S.-China trade tensions and that briefly spurred safe-haven bids for the greenback. The dollar’s pullback likely stemmed from modest gains on Wall Street and a drop-off in trading volume before the weekend. The U.S. dollar has been moving inversely with stocks. They could have restrained the dollar somewhat. An index that tracks the dollar against the yen, euro and four other currencies was down 0.07 percent to 94.740 after touching 95.241, which was the highest since June 29. The yen recovered from a six-month trough against the greenback after hitting a six-month low at 112.79 yen before recovering to 112.30 yen, up 0.2 percent on the day. The euro fell to a nine-day low at $1.1610 before ending flat at $1.1680. Despite the greenback’s stalling on Friday, prospects for a strong dollar remain intact. Trade war concerns amplify the downside risk on global growth. That tends to be positive for the dollar and puts a drag on other currencies. Upbeat comments on the U.S. economy from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell also stoked earlier demand for the dollar. U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said on Thursday that the United States and China might reopen trade talks, briefly easing concerns about the trade dispute. But data showing China’s trade surplus with the United States swelled to a record in June could further inflame tensions. U.S. President Donald Trump this week pledged to impose tariffs on $200 billion more in Chinese imports. Beijing has vowed to retaliate. Escalating trade tensions have not dented the U.S. economy, which on is its second longest expansion on record. On Thursday, Fed chief Powell said in a Marketplace radio interview he believes the U.S. economy remains in a “good place,” with recent government tax and spending programs likely to boost growth for perhaps three years. The Fed released its semiannual report on monetary policy before Powell’s testimony to Congress next Tuesday and Wednesday. The report showed solid U.S. economic growth and the Fed expecting to keep raising rates gradually.

 

   
Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
02:00 China Surveyed Jobless Rate (JUN) Medium     4.8%
02:00 China Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (2Q) High   6.7% 6.8%
02:00 China Retail Sales (YoY) (JUN) Medium   9.0% 8.5%
02:00 China Industrial Production (YoY) (JUN) Medium   6.5% 6.8%
09:00 Euro-Zone Trade Balance (euros) (MAY) Low     18.1b
12:30 U.S Retail Sales Advance (MoM) (JUN) High     0.8%
12:30 U.S Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas (JUN) Medium     0.8%
12:30 U.S Retail Sales Control Group (JUN) Medium     0.5%
13:00 Canada Existing Home Sales (MoM) (JUN) Medium   1.5% -0.1%
14:00 U.S Business Inventories (MAY) Medium     0.3%
22:45 New Zealand Consumer Price Index (YoY) (2Q) High     1.1%

 

Euro

The single currency fell earlier to an eight-day low on Friday as U.S inflation numbers boosted interest rate expectations and an easing in trade tensions between the United States and China supported the dollar. U.S. President’s comments on Brexit plan killing hopes of a U.S trade deal also knocked sterling lower, pushing the dollar up across the board. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1611 and a high of 1.1684 before closing the day around 1.1681 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen pair dipped on Friday, fading from a two-week peak which was tied to news of a record Chinese trade surplus that may fuel U.S.-China trade tensions and that briefly spurred safe-haven bids for the greenback. The dollar’s pullback likely stemmed from modest gains on Wall Street and a drop-off in trading volume before the weekend. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 112.25 and a high of 112.78 before closing the day around 112.32 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound rate got off to a rough start last week, with a surge in political uncertainty driving the pairing lower. This came in the wake of resignations of UK Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson and Brexit Secretary David Davis driving in protest over the Prime Ministers Brexit plans agreed to by the cabinet the previous week.  Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.3100 and a high of 1.3234 before closing the day at 1.3233 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar was little changed against its U.S. counterpart on Friday as oil prices rose, but for the week the loonie was on track to fall 0.6 per cent after broader gains for the greenback offset a Bank of Canada interest rate hike. The U.S. dollar faded from a two-week peak which was tied to news of a record Chinese trade surplus. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.3147 and a high of 1.3206 before closing the day at 1.3152 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar proved quite resilient to more gloomy trade headlines last week. News that the US was considering yet more tariffs on Chinese goods sapped the global risk appetite from which currencies such as the Aussie usually benefit. However, while AUD/USD certainly slipped, it didn’t fall very far and managed to rise again afterwards. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7366 and a high of 0.7420 before closing the day at 0.7419 in the New York session.

 

 

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 65 and lies above the neutral zone. In general, the pair has lost 0.07%.

 

 Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bullish tone and MACD is also indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 65 reading and lies above the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has gained 0.05%.

  

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is also indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 60 reading and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has closed unchanged.

 

 Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bearish tone and MACD is also issuing a bearish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 52 and lies above the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.10%.

 

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading above 14, 50 and below 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bullish stance and MACD is also indicating a bullish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 59 and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.15%.

 

Appendix

 

FOREX Closing Prices for July 13, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.1669 1.16846 1.16116 1.16816 0.0012
USD/JPY 112.491 112.781 112.257 112.329 -0.1920
GBP/USD 1.32038 1.32347 1.31008 1.3233 0.0029
USD/CHF 1.00205 1.00663 1.00127 1.00151 -0.0006
USD/CAD 1.3154 1.32064 1.31479 1.3152 0.0000
EUR/JPY 131.303 131.507 130.783 131.242 -0.0880
GBP/JPY 148.553 148.681 147.616 148.671 0.0710
CHF/JPY 112.235 112.436 111.832 112.136 -0.1220
AUD/JPY 83.317 83.573 82.961 83.338 -0.0030
EUR/GBP 0.88358 0.88642 0.88233 0.88257 -0.0009
EUR/CHF 1.16946 1.17064 1.16559 1.17007 0.0005
GBP/CHF 1.32328 1.32622 1.31577 1.32545 0.0020

 

 

 

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1561 1.1586 1.1634 1.1659 1.1707 1.1732 1.1780
USD/JPY 111.61 111.93 112.13 112.46 112.65 112.98 113.18
GBP/USD 1.3010 1.3056 1.3144 1.3190 1.3278 1.3323 1.3412
USD/CHF 0.9943 0.9978 0.9996 1.0031 1.0050 1.0085 1.0104
USD/CAD 1.3073 1.3110 1.3131 1.3169 1.3190 1.3227 1.3248
EUR/JPY 130.12 130.45 130.85 131.18 131.57 131.90 132.30
GBP/JPY 146.90 147.26 147.96 148.32 149.03 149.39 150.09
CHF/JPY 111.23 111.53 111.83 112.13 112.44 112.74 113.04
AUD/JPY 82.40 82.68 83.01 83.29 83.62 83.90 84.23
EUR/GBP 0.8770 0.8797 0.8811 0.8838 0.8852 0.8879 0.8893
EUR/CHF 1.1618 1.1637 1.1669 1.1688 1.1719 1.1738 1.1770
GBP/CHF 1.3083 1.3120 1.3187 1.3225 1.3292 1.3329 1.3396

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

 

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.