20 Sep 2018

Daily Market View

 

 Daily Market View

 Thursday, September 20, 2018
          U.S Stock Market

 

DJIA S & P 500 NASDAQ
26433 2909.75 7497.00
+0.60% -0.04% -0.15%

U.S stocks closed mostly higher yesterday as investors took escalating trade tensions in stride to instead focus on improving economic fundamentals even as a weak technology sector hobbled the NASDAQ. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 158.80 points, or 0.6%, leaving it less than 1% from its all-time closing high. It has been 163 trading days since the Dow’s last record, its longest such stretch since a period of 288 days that occurred between May 2015 and July 2016, according to the Dow Jones Data Group. The S&P 500 added 3.64 points, or 0.1%, within 0.3% of its record. Financials were the best-performing stocks, rallying 1.8% as the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 3.081%, its highest since May 17. The NASDAQ bucked the trend to fall 6.07 points. Trading on Wall Street has been relatively subdued now that earnings season is largely over and there have been few major economic indicators released this week. That has left an opening for markets to be driven by the latest developments on trade.

 

 

Major Economic Releases for Today
Period Event GMT Forecast Previous

sep

SNB Sight Deposit Interest Rate 07:30 -0.75% -0.75%

sep

SNB 3-Month Libor Lower Target Range 07:30 -1.25% -1.25%

sep

SNB 3-Month Libor Upper Target Range 07:30 -0.25% -0.25%

aug

U.K Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel (YoY) 08:30 2.3% 3.7%

sep

U.S Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook 12:30 15.8 11.9

sep

U.S Initial Jobless Claims 12:30 210k 204k

 

EU Informal Meeting of Heads of State Summit Press Conference 13:15    

sep

Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence 14:00 -2.0 -1.9

aug

U.S Existing Home Sales (MoM) 14:00 0.8% -0.7%
Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.61% to hit new 6-months high. The best performers of the session on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were Goldman Sachs Group Inc., which rose 2.92% or 6.69 points to trade at 235.58 at the close. Meanwhile, JPMorgan Chase & Co added 2.90% or 3.32 points to end at 117.62 and Caterpillar Inc. was up 2.48% or 3.69 points to 152.76 in late trade. The worst performers of the session were Verizon Communications Inc., which fell 1.64% or 0.89 points to trade at 53.50 at the close. Microsoft Corporation declined 1.33% or 1.51 points to end at 111.70 and Nike Inc was down 0.97% or 0.83 points to 84.43.

 

 

 

NASDAQ 100

The tech-heavy NASDAQ index declined 0.08% yesterday. The top performers on the NASDAQ Composite were Altimmune Inc. which rose 285.48% to 16.460, New Age Beverages Corp which was up 54.96% to settle at 4.37 and Molecular Templates Inc. which gained 52.44% to close at 6.2500. The worst performers were Realm Therapeutics PLC ADR which was down 21.88% to 5.00 in late trade, Vital Thera which lost 22.90% to settle at 0.33 and Ameri Holdings Inc. which was down 18.08% to 1.45 at the close.

 

 

Oil

U.S oil futures rose to a more than two-month high yesterday, bolstered by a fifth weekly crude inventory drawdown and strong domestic gasoline demand, amid ongoing supply concerns over U.S sanctions on Iran that come into force in November. Crude inventories fell 2.1 million barrels in the week to Sept. 14 to 394.1 million barrels, the lowest level since February 2015 EIA data showed. Analysts had forecast a decrease of 2.7 million barrels. U.S crude futures ended yesterday’s session up $1.27, or 1.8 percent, at $71.12, its best closing price since early July. The rise came after the U.S Energy Information Administration said crude and gasoline stockpiles fell last week. Crude inventories fell 2.1 million barrels last week to 394.1 million barrels, the lowest level since February 2015, EIA data showed. Gasoline stocks fell 1.7 million barrels versus forecasts for a 100,000-barrel drop. Gasoline consumption usually picks up in the summer.

 

 

 

Precious and Base Metals

Gold prices held steady today, after rising in the previous session, as the dollar softened amid easing Sino-U.S. trade tensions and investors wait on direction from next week’s U.S Federal Reserve meeting. Spot gold was little changed at $1,203.86, after rising 0.5 percent in the previous session. U.S. gold futures were up 0.1 percent at $1,209 an ounce. Investors are awaiting next week’s Federal Reserve meeting. The U.S. central bank is widely expected to raise benchmark interest rates and shed light on the path for future rate hikes. Higher rates dent demand for non-interest yielding gold and in turn boost the dollar in which it is priced. The dollar index was hovering near a seven-week low against a basket of major currencies. China said on Wednesday it will not stoop to the competitive devaluation of its currency, hours after it hit back with a softer punch than the one landed by the United States in their escalating tariff dispute. On Tuesday, Beijing added $60 billion of U.S. products to its import tariff list in retaliation for President Donald Trump’s planned levies on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods. The tariffs, however, were seen to be at lower levels than some had feared, easing some concerns after the months-long trade battle between the world’s leading economies threatened to dim global growth prospects. Investors have been buying the dollar in the belief the United States has less to lose from the dispute. But a spot of weakness in the dollar indicated that worries over trade tensions have eased. U.S homebuilding increased more than expected in August, a positive sign for the housing market which has underperformed the broader economy amid rising interest rates for home loans. India should not tamper with its gold import duty or impose other restrictions to support the rupee, the World Gold Council said on Wednesday, as the government considers ways to cut “non-necessary” imports to stem an outflow of dollars.

 

 

 

Traditional Agriculture

Soybean futures rose roughly two percent yesterday, rebounding a day after the most active contract fell to a 10-year low as the harvest of a likely record-large U.S crop got underway. Wheat futures climbed on technical buying and tightening global supplies.

 

 

 

Futures Settlement Price Wednesday, September 19, 2018
Instrument Contract Open High Low Settlement Net Change
DJIA DJM18 26285 26474 26236 26433 158
S & P 500 SPM18 2907.25 2913.25 2900.5 2909.75 3
NASDAQ 100 NDM18 7499.75 7516.75 7442.25 7497 1.25
Hang Seng HSH18 27215 27488 27056 27406 371
Nikkei 225 NKH18 23650 23685 23495 23525 225
FTSE 100 FTH18 7313 7344.5 7276.5 7340.5 35
Gold GCJ18 1202.3 1210.7 1202.3 1208.5 5.9
Silver SIK18 1417 1436.5 1416.5 1426 9
Copper HGK18 273.55 275.3 271.7 272.75 -1
Crude Oil CLK18 69.43 71.04 69.32 70.99 1.57
Wheat WK18 512.75 523 511.75 522 11.75
Soybeans SK18 814.5 830.25 813 829.5 16
Corn CK18 343 346.5 342.75 345.25 2.5

 

 

Daily Swings  (The Pivot Levels)
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
DJM18 26050 26143 26288 26381 26526 26619 26764
SPM18 2889.67 2895.08 2902.42 2907.83 2915.17 2920.58 2927.92
NDM18 7379.42 7410.83 7453.92 7485.33 7528.42 7559.83 7602.92
HSH18 26713 26885 27145 27317 27577 27749 28009
NKH18 23262 23378 23452 23568 23642 23758 23832
FTH18 7228.50 7252.50 7296.50 7320.50 7364.50 7388.50 7432.50
GCJ18 1195.23 1198.77 1203.63 1207.17 1212.03 1215.57 1220.43
SIK18 1396.17 1406.33 1416.17 1426.33 1436.17 1446.33 1456.17
HGK18 267.60 269.65 271.20 273.25 274.80 276.85 278.40
CLK18 68.14 68.73 69.86 70.45 71.58 72.17 73.30
WK18 503.58 507.67 514.83 518.92 526.08 530.17 537.33
SK18 801.00 807.00 818.25 824.25 835.50 841.50 852.75
CK18 339.42 341.08 343.17 344.83 346.92 348.58 350.67

 

 Source: – News & Quotes (Courtesy:  Reuters)                                                                    

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

 

 

 

 

20 Sep 2018

FOREX Newsletter

   

FOREX Newsletter

September 20, 2018
 

 

  Pulse of the Market

·      U.S current account deficit narrowed in the second quarter while housing starts jumped 9.2%

·      Brexit and trade headlines took currencies on a rollercoaster ride yesterday

·      The British Pound will remain in play today with UK retail sales scheduled for release

·      USD/CAD jumped following reports that trade deal between U.S and Canada is unlikely this week

 

The U.S Dollar ended the day lower against most of the major currencies despite a sharp rise in U.S yields and better than expected U.S data. The current account deficit narrowed in the second quarter while housing starts jumped 9.2%. These numbers easily offset the -5.7% drop in building permits. We need to look no further than risk appetite for an explanation as to why the dollar performed so poorly today. The strong performance of U.S. stocks along and the continued recovery in the Australian dollar tell us that no one is worried about the trade war. The U.S imposed tariffs on $200B of Chinese goods and China responded with levies on about $60B of U.S goods. Retaliation is not a step in the right direction but China imposed only a 5% and 10% penalty of U.S. imports, which is lower than the 5% to 25% levels previously proposed. To the market’s relief, this is also the first time that Beijing did not match Washington’s tariffs dollar by dollar. Brexit and trade headlines took currencies on a rollercoaster ride yesterday. At the start of the NY session, GBP/USD dropped 90 pips in one minute on reports by the Times of London that UK Prime Minister May plans to reject the European Union’s improved Brexit offer. Earlier this week, the EU seemed to be willing to agree on the UK rather than EC inspectors at the border but the UK refuses to accept the EU’s insistence on customs checks in the Irish Sea if there isn’t a free trade agreement after Brexit. The Irish border has been the biggest hang-up in negotiations and the possible rejection of the EU’s offer reignited concerns about a no-deal Brexit and even a second referendum. For most of the month, we heard about possible concessions from the EU and reports of progress in Brexit talks but starting last week, the tone from the UK began to change. The UK government suggested that they’ve done all they can and the EU needs to stop revisiting previous positions. GBP/USD remains in play today with UK retail sales scheduled for release. While consumer and producer price growth was stronger than expected, Thursday’s report could fall short of expectations. Spending increased significantly last month so there’s potential for a pullback especially after the British Retail Consortium reported a decline.

 

 

Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
07:30 SNB Sight Deposit Interest Rate (SEP 20) High   -0.75% -0.75%
07:30 SNB 3-Month Libor Lower Target Range (SEP 20) High   -1.25% -1.25%
07:30 SNB 3-Month Libor Upper Target Range (SEP 20) High   -0.25% -0.25%
08:30 U.K Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel (YoY) (AUG) Medium   2.3% 3.7%
12:30 U.S Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook (SEP) Medium   15.8 11.9
12:30 U.S Initial Jobless Claims (SEP 15) Medium   210k 204k
12:30 U.S Continuing Claims (SEP 08) Medium   1705k 1696k
13:15 EU Informal Meeting of Heads of State Summit Press Conference High      
14:00 U.S Leading Index (AUG) Medium   0.50% 0.6%
14:00 Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence (SEP) Medium   -2.0 -1.9
14:00 U.S Existing Home Sales (MoM) (AUG) Medium   0.8% -0.7%
23:30 Japan National Consumer Price Index (YoY) (AUG) High   1.1% 0.9%

 

Euro

The single currency traded higher against the U.S Dollar yesterday. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi called for a euro-area fund to complement monetary policy, renewing his plea to governments to strengthen the currency bloc before another crisis strikes. Heads of state are due to meet in Brussels for a summit next month. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1648 and a high of 1.1713 before closing the day around 1.1671 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen gained slightly against the U.S Dollar as investors appeared little shaken by the latest round of tariffs announced by China and the U.S. China and the U.S plunged deeper into a trade war after President Donald Trump levied tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods. Beijing retaliated with duties on about $60 billion worth of U.S. goods. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 112.14 and a high of 112.48 before closing the day around 112.25 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound got another shot in the arm after the latest measure of consumer inflation was released this morning, which revealed a surprisingly strong reading for the month of August. According to the ONS, the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) jumped to 2.7% year-on-year in August compared to 2.5% previously, while core CPI rose to 2.1% versus 1.9% last. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.3096 and a high of 1.3213 before closing the day at 1.3142 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar strengthened to its highest in nearly three weeks as investors grew optimistic that a deal to renew the NAFTA trade pact would be reached before an Oct. 1 deadline. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said he wanted to see flexibility from the United States if the two sides are to reach a deal on the North American Free Trade Agreement. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.2897 and a high of 1.3013 before closing the day at 1.2915 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar has continued its rebound to a three-week high, despite an increase in US interest rates, and also gained against other major currencies. It seems global investors are betting that the US-China trade war will not be as bad as they initially feared. After all, both the tariffs imposed by Washington and Beijing on each other were less severe than they had previously warned. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7211 and a high of 0.7273 before closing the day at 0.7261 in the New York session.

 

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is issuing a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 62 and lies above the neutral zone. In general, the pair has lost 0.02%.

 

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and below 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bullish tone and MACD is also indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 66 reading and lies above the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.09%.

 

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading above 14 and below 50, 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is also indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 57 reading and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.54%.

 

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bearish tone and MACD is also issuing a bearish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 42 and lies below the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has gained 0.07%.

  

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bullish stance and MACD is also indicating a bullish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 54 and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.25%.

 

Appendix

  

FOREX Closing Prices for September 19, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.16659 1.17135 1.16487 1.1671 0.0006
USD/JPY 112.338 112.428 112.142 112.258 -0.0820
GBP/USD 1.31392 1.32134 1.30961 1.31428 -0.0002
USD/CHF 0.96447 0.96986 0.96324 0.96701 0.0027
USD/CAD 1.29783 1.30131 1.28977 1.29156 -0.0056
EUR/JPY 131.096 131.659 130.757 131.045 -0.0240
GBP/JPY 147.618 148.508 147.177 147.557 -0.1300
CHF/JPY 116.447 116.55 115.721 116.056 -0.4040
AUD/JPY 81.066 81.629 80.988 81.514 0.4350
EUR/GBP 0.88781 0.89176 0.88596 0.8878 0.0006
EUR/CHF 1.12543 1.1325 1.12465 1.12869 0.0036
GBP/CHF 1.2675 1.27718 1.26704 1.27101 0.0032

  

 

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1577 1.1613 1.1642 1.1678 1.1707 1.1743 1.1772
USD/JPY 111.84 111.99 112.12 112.28 112.41 112.56 112.70
GBP/USD 1.2971 1.3033 1.3088 1.3151 1.3205 1.3268 1.3323
USD/CHF 0.9569 0.9601 0.9635 0.9667 0.9702 0.9733 0.9768
USD/CAD 1.2756 1.2827 1.2871 1.2942 1.2987 1.3058 1.3102
EUR/JPY 129.75 130.25 130.65 131.15 131.55 132.06 132.45
GBP/JPY 145.66 146.42 146.99 147.75 148.32 149.08 149.65
CHF/JPY 114.84 115.28 115.67 116.11 116.50 116.94 117.33
AUD/JPY 80.48 80.74 81.13 81.38 81.77 82.02 82.41
EUR/GBP 0.8795 0.8827 0.8853 0.8885 0.8911 0.8943 0.8969
EUR/CHF 1.1169 1.1208 1.1247 1.1286 1.1326 1.1365 1.1404
GBP/CHF 1.2562 1.2616 1.2663 1.2717 1.2764 1.2819 1.2866

 

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

19 Sep 2018

Daily Market View

           

Daily Market View

Wednesday, September 19, 2018
          U.S Stock Market

 

DJIA S & P 500 NASDAQ
26275 2906.75 7495.75
+0.88% +0.70% +0.97%

 

U.S stocks vaulted higher yesterday, with investors shrugging off escalating trade tensions to instead focus on an economy that remains strong by many measures. The gains were led by consumer-discretionary and technology shares, two sectors that had slumped in the previous session. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied 246 points, or 1%, roughly 1.2% away from its record high. The S&P 500 index advanced 21 points, or 0.8% and the NASDAQ climbed 80 points, or 1%. Stocks had declined Monday, marking the biggest one-day drop for the S&P since mid-August and the worst session for the NASDAQ since late July. President Donald Trump late Monday said he would impose new tariffs on about $200 billion in Chinese goods. He also threatened additional penalties as part of his campaign to pressure Beijing to change its commercial practices. Crude-oil prices saw strong gains and gold settled lower. The U.S. dollar index was moderately higher.

 

 

Major Economic Releases for Today
Period Event GMT Forecast Previous

sep

BOJ Rate Decision   -0.10% -0.10%

aug

U.K Consumer Price Index (YoY) 08:30 2.4% 2.5%

aug

U.K Retail Price Index (YoY) 08:30 3.2% 3.2%

jul

U.K House Price Index (YoY) 08:30 2.8% 3.0%

sep

U.S MBA Mortgage Applications 11:00    

aug

U.S Housing Starts (MoM) 12:30 5.7% 0.9%

aug

U.S Building Permits (MoM) 12:30 0.5% 1.5%

 

ECB’s Draghi speaks in Berlin 13:00    

sep

DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories 14:30    
Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.71% to hit a new 6-months high. The best performers of the session on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were Nike Inc., which rose 2.40% or 2.00 points to trade at 85.26 at the close. Meanwhile, Boeing Co added 2.14% or 7.62 points to end at 363.58 and Caterpillar Inc. was up 1.95% or 2.85 points to 149.07 in late trade. The worst performers of the session were DowDuPont Inc., which fell 1.15% or 0.79 points to trade at 68.03 at the close. Coca-Cola Company declined 0.84% or 0.39 points to end at 45.93 and Verizon Communications Inc. was down 0.57% or 0.31 points to 54.39.

 

 

 

NASDAQ 100

The NASDAQ index climbed 0.76%. The top performers on the NASDAQ Composite were Realm Therapeutics PLC ADR which rose 77.78% to 6.40, Viking Therapeutics Inc. which was up 87.30% to settle at 19.460 and Vital Thera which gained 70.09% to close at 0.43. The worst performers were SAExploration Holdings Inc. which was down 26.17% to 5.980 in late trade, Helios and Matheson Analytics Inc. which lost 20.00% to settle at 0.012 and China Internet Nationwide Financial Services Inc. which was down 19.64% to 9.00 at the close.

 

 

Oil

Oil futures rose more than 1 percent yesterday on signs that OPEC would not be prepared to raise output to address shrinking supplies from Iran, and as Saudi Arabia signaled an informal target near current levels. U.S. crude futures rose 94 cents to settle at $69.85 a barrel, a 1.36 percent gain. Ministers from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and non-OPEC producers meet on Sunday to discuss compliance with output policies. OPEC sources have told Reuters no immediate action was planned and producers would discuss how to share a previously agreed output increase. Bloomberg reported on Tuesday, citing unnamed Saudi sources, that the kingdom was currently comfortable with prices above $80 per barrel, at least for the short term. Bloomberg reported that while Saudi Arabia had no desire to push prices higher than $80, it may no longer be possible to avoid it. U.S sanctions affecting Iran’s petroleum sector are due to come into force from Nov. 4.

 

 

 

Precious and Base Metals

Gold prices inched higher yesterday as the dollar eased following news that China would retaliate against a new round of U.S tariffs on its goods. U.S. President Donald Trump said he was imposing 10 percent tariffs on about $200 billion worth of imports from China, and threatened duties on about $267 billion more if China retaliated against the U.S. action. While the greenback has benefited from safe-haven flows as the China-U.S. trade conflict has escalated in recent months, investors are starting to worry about the broader impact of the tariffs on the U.S. economy. A weaker dollar generally boosts the price of dollar-denominated gold, which has been losing out on safe-haven flows to the greenback. Spot gold was 0.1 percent higher at $1,201.93 an ounce in choppy trade. U.S. gold futures were steady at $1,205.20 an ounce. Gold is reflecting the choppiness that we are seeing in the dollar. Gold prices were hovering below massive resistance between $1,205-$1,215 ranges. Gold prices have declined more than 12 percent from April, hurt by the intensifying trade dispute between the United States and China and as rising U.S. interest rates diminished demand for non-interest-bearing bullion. Investors are eyeing a meeting by the U.S. Federal Reserve next week at which interest rates are widely expected to be raised. Any comments about the 2019 monetary policy could be a new significant driver for the precious metal. Equity and base metals shrugged off signs that the trade war was ratcheting higher. Investors trimmed their net short position in Comex gold and silver in the week to Sept. 11, U.S. data showed. One of the big problems that gold is facing is that it is trying to battle a mountain of pessimism. The speculative positioning in gold is down to its lowest levels since 2001, gold is not behaving like the haven that it is supposed to be.

 

 

 

 

Traditional Agriculture

Soybean futures fell to a nearly 10-year low yesterday as the U.S Department of Agriculture said the harvest of U.S crops was rapidly advancing, pressuring market sentiment already soured amid a trade war between Washington and Beijing. The USDA said the U.S corn harvest was 9 percent complete, near an average of analyst estimates for 10 percent and ahead of the five-year average of 6 percent.

 

 

Futures Settlement Price Tuesday, September 18, 2018
Instrument Contract Open High Low Settlement Net Change
DJIA DJM18 26066 26329 25963 26275 203
S & P 500 SPM18 2890.25 2912.5 2878.25 2906.75 15.75
NASDAQ 100 NDM18 7434.5 7534.5 7393.25 7495.75 60.25
Hang Seng HSH18 26709 27165 26601 27035 148
Nikkei 225 NKH18 22920 23315 22875 23300 320
FTSE 100 FTH18 7269.5 7321 7268 7305.5 41.5
Gold GCJ18 1206 1208 1200.1 1202.6 -3.3
Silver SIK18 1420.5 1425.5 1409 1417 -3
Copper HGK18 265 273.95 258.85 273.75 8.75
Crude Oil CLK18 68.76 70.38 68.5 69.7 0.97
Wheat WK18 507.75 514 506 510.25 4.5
Soybeans SK18 821 825 812 813.5 -9.25
Corn CK18 347.5 348.25 342.25 342.75 -5

 

Daily Swings  (The Pivot Levels)
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
DJM18 25683 25823 26049 26189 26415 26555 26781
SPM18 2851.58 2864.92 2885.83 2899.17 2920.08 2933.42 2954.33
NDM18 7273.25 7333.25 7414.50 7474.50 7555.75 7615.75 7697.00
HSH18 26138 26370 26702 26934 27266 27498 27830
NKH18 22572 22723 23012 23163 23452 23603 23892
FTH18 7222.33 7245.17 7275.33 7298.17 7328.33 7351.17 7381.33
GCJ18 1191.23 1195.67 1199.13 1203.57 1207.03 1211.47 1214.93
SIK18 1392.33 1400.67 1408.83 1417.17 1425.33 1433.67 1441.83
HGK18 248.65 253.75 263.75 268.85 278.85 283.95 293.95
CLK18 66.79 67.65 68.67 69.53 70.55 71.41 72.43
WK18 498.17 502.08 506.17 510.08 514.17 518.08 522.17
SK18 795.67 803.83 808.67 816.83 821.67 829.83 834.67
CK18 334.58 338.42 340.58 344.42 346.58 350.42 352.58

 

 Source: – News & Quotes (Courtesy:  Reuters)                                                                    

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

 

 

 

 

19 Sep 2018

FOREX Newsletter

         

FOREX Newsletter

September 19, 2018
 

 

Pulse of the Market

·      Investors weighed the latest escalation in the tit-for-tat tariff dispute between the U.S and China

·      Investors grew nervous about Italy’s chances of passing a budget within the EU guidelines

·      The Canadian Dollar was boosted yesterday by rising crude oil prices

·      The Australian economy relies heavily on exporting raw materials particularly to China

The U.S Dollar was flat against other currencies yesterday as China announced retaliation tariffs against the U.S. China said it would impose new tariffs on U.S. goods worth $60 billion, effective Sept. 24, Reuters reported. The new tariffs are in response to U.S. tariffs on Monday of 10% on $200 billion in Chinese goods, which will go up to 25% at the end of the year. President Donald Trump tweeted that “there will be great and fast economic retaliation against China if our farmers, ranchers and/or industrial workers are targeted!” He previously stated that the U.S. would impose tariffs on another $267 billion of additional imports if China retaliates. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of six major currencies, inched up 0.02% to 94.11. Elsewhere, the dollar rose against the safe-haven yen, with USD/JPY up 0.43% to 112.36. In times of uncertainty, investors tend to invest in Japanese yen, which is considered a safe asset during periods of risk aversion. The best performing currency on Monday was sterling, which rose to its strongest level against the U.S. dollar in 6 weeks. The market is operating on the assumption that a Brexit deal in one form or another will be made. The Irish border is the biggest hang-up but there are reports that the EU is more willing to accept the idea that border inspectors come from the UK. While encouraging, Prime Minister May said today that it is time for the EU to respond to their proposal and not just fall back on previous positions which suggest that negotiations may not be moving as well as the market believes. This is a big week for the UK with inflation and retail sales scheduled for release. We believe that price pressures will accelerate given the uptick in shop prices reported by the British Retail Consortium and the increase in input/output costs reported by manufacturing and service sector PMIs. EUR/USD, in particular, benefitted from positive comments by the Bundesbank. Despite the recent downturn in German data, the Bundesbank expects German growth to improve significantly with the upswing intact.

 

Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
  BOJ 10-Yr Yield Target (SEP 19) High   0.00% 0.00%
  BOJ Rate Decision (SEP 19) High   -0.10% -0.10%
00:30 Australia Westpac Leading Index (MoM) (AUG) Medium     0.01%
05:45 Switzerland SECO September 2018 Economic Forecasts Low      
08:30 U.K Consumer Price Index (YoY) (AUG) High   2.4% 2.5%
08:30 U.K Retail Price Index (YoY) (AUG) Low   3.2% 3.2%
08:30 U.K House Price Index (YoY) (JUL) Medium   2.8% 3.0%
11:00 U.S MBA Mortgage Applications (SEP 14) Medium      
12:30 U.S Housing Starts (MoM) (AUG) Medium   5.7% 0.9%
12:30 U.S Building Permits (MoM) (AUG) Medium   0.5% 1.5%
13:00 ECB’s Draghi speaks in Berlin High      
14:30 DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (SEP 14) Medium      
22:45 New Zealand Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (2Q) High   2.5% 2.7%

 

Euro

The single currency advanced against the U.S Dollar on Monday, amid optimism over prospects for a Brexit deal with the European Union, while the safe-haven yen gained against the greenback as the United States was set to announce his latest plan on China tariffs after the markets close. Britain is due to leave the EU on March 29, 2019. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1650 and a high of 1.1723 before closing the day around 1.1665 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen is weakening considerably against the U.S Dollar by mid-September, while the Japanese government is trying to calm the market down. The Minister of Finance Taro Aso said yesterday the BOJ monetary policy is going to stay the same so as to reach the 2% inflation target, but this will require some time. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 111.64 and a high of 112.37 before closing the day around 112.34 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound eased away from a 6-week peak as traders exercise caution ahead of this week’s EU summit. There had been some encouraging signs from EU negotiators that a Brexit deal could be brokered within the next two months which helped to prop up the Pound. Ahead of the EU summit, traders will eye today’s release of a slew of data.  Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.3116 and a high of 1.3170 before closing the day at 1.3144 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar strengthened against its U.S counterpart yesterday as oil prices rose and domestic manufacturing data supported the view that the Bank of Canada will raise interest rates further in October. Canadian factory sales grew by 0.9 per cent in July from June on higher sales in the transportation equipment industry. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.2969 and a high of 1.3062 before closing the day at 1.2972 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar extended a recent recovery yesterday as traders respond to an optimistic Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) update while global markets breathe a collective sigh of relief over the scope of the latest U.S tariffs against China. Gains were cemented and then expanded by the release of the Reserve Bank of Australia minutes from its 4 September meeting. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7142 and a high of 0.7221 before closing the day at 0.7213 in the New York session.

 

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is issuing a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 61 and lies above the neutral zone. In general, the pair has gained 0.32%.

 

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and below 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bullish tone and MACD is also indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 67 reading and lies above the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has gained 0.36%.

  

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading above 14 and below 50, 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is also indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 54 reading and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 1.03%.

 

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bearish tone and MACD is also issuing a bearish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 40 and lies below the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.05%.

  

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bullish stance and MACD is also indicating a bullish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 50 and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.12%.

 

Appendix

  

FOREX Closing Prices for September 18, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.16822 1.17231 1.16507 1.16653 -0.0016
USD/JPY 111.838 112.371 111.645 112.34 0.5130
GBP/USD 1.31589 1.31705 1.31168 1.31445 -0.0013
USD/CHF 0.96228 0.96541 0.95982 0.96434 0.0020
USD/CAD 1.30357 1.30622 1.29696 1.2972 -0.0068
EUR/JPY 130.685 131.476 130.276 131.069 0.4130
GBP/JPY 147.178 147.891 146.759 147.687 0.5340
CHF/JPY 116.203 116.886 115.956 116.46 0.2910
AUD/JPY 80.28 81.093 79.744 81.079 0.8240
EUR/GBP 0.88759 0.89071 0.88689 0.88721 -0.0005
EUR/CHF 1.12433 1.12605 1.12205 1.12507 0.0007
GBP/CHF 1.26639 1.26857 1.26036 1.26785 0.0015

   

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1564 1.1607 1.1636 1.1680 1.1709 1.1752 1.1781
USD/JPY 111.14 111.39 111.87 112.12 112.59 112.84 113.32
GBP/USD 1.3064 1.3090 1.3117 1.3144 1.3171 1.3198 1.3225
USD/CHF 0.9554 0.9576 0.9610 0.9632 0.9666 0.9688 0.9722
USD/CAD 1.2848 1.2909 1.2940 1.3001 1.3033 1.3094 1.3126
EUR/JPY 129.20 129.74 130.40 130.94 131.60 132.14 132.80
GBP/JPY 145.87 146.31 147.00 147.45 148.13 148.58 149.26
CHF/JPY 115.05 115.50 115.98 116.43 116.91 117.36 117.84
AUD/JPY 78.84 79.29 80.18 80.64 81.53 81.99 82.88
EUR/GBP 0.8820 0.8845 0.8858 0.8883 0.8897 0.8921 0.8935
EUR/CHF 1.1187 1.1204 1.1227 1.1244 1.1267 1.1284 1.1307
GBP/CHF 1.2544 1.2574 1.2626 1.2656 1.2708 1.2738 1.2790

 

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

17 Sep 2018

Daily Market View

   

Daily Market View

Monday, September 17, 2018
          U.S Stock Market

 

DJIA S & P 500 NASDAQ
26159 2906.50 7544.75
+0.03% +0.03% -0.05%

 

U.S stocks posted a late rally to close mostly higher for a fifth consecutive day, led by gains in the financial and energy sectors. The dollar strengthened after U.S. 10-year note yields briefly climbed past 3 percent. The S&P 500 and Dow finished just in the green after slumping midday, when Bloomberg News reported that President Donald Trump instructed aides to proceed with tariffs on about $200 billion more in Chinese products. Financial markets were whipsawed this week by conflicting reports on the status of trade relations between the world’s two largest economies. The NASDAQ closer lower though up for the week. The push for additional tariffs is despite the U.S. Treasury secretary’s attempt to restart talks with Beijing to resolve the trade war, according to four people familiar with the matter. From cooling U.S. inflation to central-bank meetings in Europe, the U.K. Turkey and Russia, it was a busy week for investors.

 

 

Major Economic Releases for Today
Period Event GMT Forecast Previous

sep

Switzerland Total Sight Deposits CHF 08:00    

aug

Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index Core (YoY) 09:00   1.0%

aug

Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (YoY) (AUG F) 09:00   2.1%

jul

Canada International Securities Transactions (Canadian dollar) 12:30   11.55b

sep

U.S Empire Manufacturing 12:30   25.6

aug

Canada Existing Home Sales (MoM) 13:00   1.9%

 

U.S to Sell 3-Month Bills 15:30    

 

U.S to Sell 6-Month Bills 15:30    

sep

Australia ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Index 23:30    
Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.03% to hit a new 6-month high. The best performers of the session on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were United Technologies Corporation, which rose 1.68% or 2.28 points to trade at 137.80 at the close. Meanwhile, Boeing Co added 1.22% or 4.34 points to end at 359.80 and Chevron Corp was up 0.93% or 1.08 points to 117.38 in late trade. The worst performers of the session were Walt Disney Company, which fell 1.27% or 1.41 points to trade at 109.26 at the close. Apple Inc. declined 1.14% or 2.57 points to end at 223.84 and McDonald’s Corporation was down 0.96% or 1.56 points to 160.84.

 

 

 

NASDAQ 100

The tech heavy NASDAQ index fell 0.05% on Friday. The top performers on the NASDAQ Composite were My Size Inc. which rose 28.57% to 1.35, Champions Oncology Inc. which was up 24.76% to settle at 10.5800 and Kandi Technologies Group Inc. which gained 23.38% to close at 4.750. The worst performers were Altimmune Inc. which was down 27.34% to 5.450 in late trade, Vital Thera which lost 29.75% to settle at 0.35 and Agile Thrpe which was down 25.36% to 0.36 at the close.

 

 

Oil

Oil prices pulled back on Friday amid concerns additional U.S tariffs would be placed on China, trading mixed after a rally triggered by worries of more sanctions on Iran. Crude futures were on track to end the week up about 1.6 percent. Traders said a rally on Friday was sparked by reports Secretary of State Michael Pompeo was going to give a press conference on new sanctions on Iran. It increases the odds that there will be less oil coming out of there. The gains from the expected news conference were curbed after reports U.S. President Donald Trump instructed aides to proceed with tariffs on about $200 billion more of Chinese products. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures settled up 40 cents at $68.99 a barrel after dropping 2.5 percent on Thursday. U.S. energy companies last week added oil rigs for a second week in a row. Drillers added two oil rigs in the week bringing the total count up to 749.

 

 

 

Precious and Base Metals

Gold turned negative on Friday, as the U.S. dollar rose against the Chinese yuan after U.S. President Donald Trump reportedly told aides to proceed with tariffs on Chinese imports. Trump has directed aides to place tariffs on about $200 billion of Chinese goods, according to a person familiar with the matter. Bloomberg News first reported Trump’s action. After the latest U.S.-China tariff development, the dollar index extended earlier gains against a basket of currencies, including the yuan, while the S&P 500 declined. Spot gold lost 0.5 percent at $1,195.21 per ounce, having hit its highest since Aug. 28 at $1,212.65 on Thursday. It has risen more than 0.1 percent so far this week, on track for its first weekly gain in three. U.S. gold futures for December delivery settled down $7.10, or 0.6 percent, at $1,201.10 per ounce. The months-long trade tension between Washington and Beijing has prompted investors to buy the U.S. dollar, in the belief that the United States has less to lose from the dispute. Gold has shown a close correlation to the currency of China, the biggest gold-consuming nation, analysts say. Meanwhile, investors widely expect another U.S. interest rate increase. Higher rates make gold less attractive since it does not pay interest but cost money to store and insure. Gold prices have declined about 12 percent from a peak of $1,365.23 in April amid the intensifying global trade tensions and rising U.S. interest rates. In other precious metals, spot silver dropped 0.4 percent at $14.10 per ounce, headed for a 0.1 percent weekly increase. Palladium declined 0.4 percent at $978.30 and was poised for a 0.1 percent weekly decline. Platinum declined 0.9 percent at $793 an ounce after touching a one-month high at $812.30 on Thursday, to end the week up about 1.9 percent. We’ve seen some traders dipping their toes back in platinum, which is at a near record discount to gold.

 

 

 

 

Traditional Agriculture

Wheat futures jumped three percent on Friday, rebounding from an eight-week low on a round of technical buying and short-covering ahead of the weekend. The gains in wheat pulled corn futures slightly higher but expectations for a bumper U.S. harvest stifled rally attempts.

 

 

 

Futures Settlement Price Friday, September 14, 2018
Instrument Contract Open High Low Settlement Net Change
DJIA DJM18 26155 26234 26076 26159 2
S & P 500 SPM18 2904.5 2912.25 2896.75 2906.5 1.5
NASDAQ 100 NDM18 7563 7598.25 7515 7544.75 -19.25
Hang Seng HSH18 27228 27340 26999 27247 264
Nikkei 225 NKH18 22780 22980 22780 22980 350
FTSE 100 FTH18 7307 7323 7280 7308.5 19
Gold GCJ18 1206.5 1213.5 1197.4 1200.4 -5.8
Silver SIK18 1420 1430.5 1408 1412.5 -6
Copper HGK18 267.6 269.85 263.4 264.5 -3.05
Crude Oil CLK18 68.76 69.87 67.91 68.94 0.17
Wheat WK18 496.5 513.75 496.25 510.75 14.75
Soybeans SK18 833.75 837.5 829.25 830 -3.5
Corn CK18 350 352 349.25 351 1

 

 

Daily Swings  (The Pivot Levels)
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
DJM18 25921 25998 26079 26156 26237 26314 26395
SPM18 2882.58 2889.67 2898.08 2905.17 2913.58 2920.67 2929.08
NDM18 7423.83 7469.42 7507.08 7552.67 7590.33 7635.92 7673.58
HSH18 26710 26854 27051 27195 27392 27536 27733
NKH18 22647 22713 22847 22913 23047 23113 23247
FTH18 7241.67 7260.83 7284.67 7303.83 7327.67 7346.83 7370.67
GCJ18 1177.93 1187.67 1194.03 1203.77 1210.13 1219.87 1226.23
SIK18 1381.00 1394.50 1403.50 1417.00 1426.00 1439.50 1448.50
HGK18 255.53 259.47 261.98 265.92 268.43 272.37 274.88
CLK18 65.98 66.95 67.94 68.91 69.90 70.87 71.86
WK18 482.58 489.42 500.08 506.92 517.58 524.42 535.08
SK18 818.75 824.00 827.00 832.25 835.25 840.50 843.50
CK18 346.75 348.00 349.50 350.75 352.25 353.50 355.00

 

 

 Source: – News & Quotes (Courtesy:  Reuters)                                                                    

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

 

17 Sep 2018

FOREX Newsletter

     

FOREX Newsletter

September 17, 2018
 

 

Pulse of the Market

·      The Japanese Yen pair defied fundamentals on Friday to hit a 7-week high above 112

·      The momentum for EUR/USD shifted back to the downside with Friday’s reversal

·      Sterling turned lower on the back of U.S Dollar strength and conflicting Brexit headlines

·      Canadian Foreign Minister Freeland should be back next week to continue negotiations

The Greenback strengthened against all of the major currencies with Euro leading the slide. Retail sales grew at its slowest pace in 6 months but the dollar rallied because every policymaker who spoke on Friday said more tightening beyond September is needed. Even FOMC voter and Fed President Brainard who is traditionally a dove suggested that the Fed could continue to raise rates beyond the long term neutral rate. Evans who is not a voting member of the FOMC described the economy and labor market as very strong and suggested that 4 hikes for 2019 is still reasonable because he wouldn’t be surprised if inflation goes a little above 2%. Kaplan agreed that the U.S consumer is strong. Hawkish comments such as these drove 10 year Treasury yields above 3% on an intraday basis on Friday and this move took USD/JPY to its highs of the day above 112. The Federal Reserve is still expected to raise interest rates this month and that’s the only thing that matters. The trend is strong in USD/JPY and the pair could continue to rise but it will be vulnerable to the Bank of Japan’s outlook and trade headlines. No changes are expected but the BoJ has been actively engaged in stealth tapering and investors will be watching closely for any comments on these actions. The momentum for EUR/USD shifted back to the downside with Friday’s reversal. The Euro rallied after the ECB’s meeting on Thursday but today, there were reports that some policymakers wanted a more cautious tone that suggested the risks were tilted to the downside. Data was also weak with the Eurozone’s trade surplus shrinking to its smallest level in 4 years in July. The divergence between Draghi’s outlook and the performance of the economy makes next week’s inflation and economic activity reports very importantly. If CPI and PMIs also surprise to the downside, EUR/USD will fall to 1.15. However if Draghi is right and the PMIs show that the outlook for the economy remains bright, EUR/USD could squeeze back above 1.17. Sterling turned lower on the back of U.S Dollar strength and conflicting Brexit headlines. Brexit talks are moving in a positive direction but the Irish border is still the big problem. UK Brexit minister Davis thinks they are closing in on a deal but the EU denied the progress. Either way, Brexit headlines or UK data put sterling in focus next week with consumer prices and retail sales numbers scheduled for release. GBP/USD ended Friday at its lows, putting the pair at risk of testing 1.30. Meanwhile, Canada – U.S trade talks failed to yield any meaningful progress this week. Canadian Foreign Minister Freeland should be back next week to continue negotiations. The main issue is dairy–Canada restricts how much foreign milk is sold to the benefit of their local industry but the U.S. wants those restrictions relaxed so U.S producers could sell more milk and cheese to Canada. Although the Australian and New Zealand dollars hit fresh 2 year lows this last week.

 

 

 

Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
08:00 Switzerland Total Sight Deposits (SEP 14) Low      
09:00 Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (YoY) (AUG) Medium     2.1%
12:30 U.S Empire Manufacturing (SEP) Low     25.6
13:00 Canada Existing Home Sales (MoM) (AUG) Medium     1.9%
23:30 ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Index (SEP 16) Low      

 

 

Euro

The single currency rose to a two-week high on Friday after weaker-than-expected US inflation data continued to weigh on the dollar and a broader recovery in investment sentiment supported the Euro. But by the end of the day, the Euro ended sharply lower against the U.S Dollar. The ECB continues to aim for ending its QE program in December. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1619 and a high of 1.1720 before closing the day around 1.1622 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen pair finished sharply higher last week. Traders, for the most part, ignored reports of lower domestic inflation data and trade dispute concerns and primarily focused on the widening interest rate differential between U.S Government yields and Japanese bond yields. Technical factors also played a role in the Forex pair’s strength. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 111.73 and a high of 112.14 before closing the day around 111.97 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound has seen a minor rise against the US dollar today hitting a level of $1.313, the best exchange rate since the start of August. This improvement in the pound US dollar exchange rate is mainly down to US economic uncertainty, which has made the pound the more appealing currency of the two. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.3054 and a high of 1.3141 before closing the day at 1.3068 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar weakened against its U.S counterpart on Friday as the greenback rose broadly, but the loonie still had its best weekly performance in nearly three months. The U.S. dollar rose against a basket of currencies, rebounding from a near 1.5-month low, as upbeat U.S economic data. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.2980 and a high rekindled some investor appetite for the greenback.  of 1.3052 before closing the day at 1.3030 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar fell in Friday’s trading session. Blockbuster economic data bought the Australian Dollar some respite last week, but it might not be wise to hope for much more of this in coming sessions even if the long fall does not resume immediately. Official Gross Domestic Product numbers for the second quarter looked good. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7148 and a high of 0.7214 before closing the day at 0.7153 in the New York session.

 

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is issuing a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 57 and lies above the neutral zone. In general, the pair has lost 0.51%.

 

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and below 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bullish tone and MACD is also indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 62 reading and lies above the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.21%.

 

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading above 14 and below 50, 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is also indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 45 reading and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.41%.

 

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bearish tone and MACD is also issuing a bearish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 40 and lies below the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.29%.

  

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish stance and MACD is also indicating a bearish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 46 and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.10%.

 

Appendix

  

FOREX Closing Prices for September 14, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.16886 1.17202 1.16192 1.16227 -0.0066
USD/JPY 111.905 112.149 111.734 111.975 0.0660
GBP/USD 1.3107 1.31419 1.30548 1.30687 -0.0035
USD/CHF 0.96539 0.9674 0.96328 0.96691 0.0016
USD/CAD 1.2996 1.30521 1.29806 1.30305 0.0033
EUR/JPY 130.834 131.091 130.155 130.173 -0.6630
GBP/JPY 146.7 147.006 146.233 146.363 -0.3070
CHF/JPY 115.912 116.073 115.719 115.783 -0.1300
AUD/JPY 80.476 80.674 80.049 80.098 -0.3330
EUR/GBP 0.8916 0.8931 0.88901 0.88915 -0.0026
EUR/CHF 1.12843 1.13018 1.12395 1.12397 -0.0044
GBP/CHF 1.26553 1.26743 1.26189 1.26376 -0.0013

   

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1487 1.1553 1.1588 1.1654 1.1689 1.1755 1.1790
USD/JPY 111.34 111.54 111.76 111.95 112.17 112.37 112.59
GBP/USD 1.2948 1.3001 1.3035 1.3088 1.3122 1.3176 1.3209
USD/CHF 0.9602 0.9617 0.9643 0.9659 0.9684 0.9700 0.9726
USD/CAD 1.2919 1.2950 1.2990 1.3021 1.3062 1.3093 1.3133
EUR/JPY 128.92 129.54 129.86 130.47 130.79 131.41 131.73
GBP/JPY 145.29 145.76 146.06 146.53 146.84 147.31 147.61
CHF/JPY 115.29 115.50 115.64 115.86 116.00 116.21 116.35
AUD/JPY 79.25 79.65 79.87 80.27 80.50 80.90 81.12
EUR/GBP 0.8837 0.8863 0.8877 0.8904 0.8918 0.8945 0.8959
EUR/CHF 1.1157 1.1198 1.1219 1.1260 1.1281 1.1323 1.1343
GBP/CHF 1.2558 1.2588 1.2613 1.2644 1.2668 1.2699 1.2724

 

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

 

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

14 Sep 2018

Daily Market View

   

Daily Market View

Friday, September 14, 2018
          U.S Stock Market

 

DJIA S & P 500 NASDAQ
26012 2888.50 7485.50
+0.57% +0.53% +0.75%

U.S stocks made solid gains yesterday as Apple and Qualcomm led a rally in technology companies. Drugmakers and health insurers also rose. Apple changed course and rose a day after it introduced three new iPhone models and updates to the Apple Watch. Chipmakers recovered after a steep drop the day before. Stock indexes in Turkey and other emerging markets rose after the Turkish central bank raised interest rates sharply in response to the nation’s currency crisis. Technology stocks are edging higher after a four-day losing streak last week, their longest since April. Investors worried about the prospect of heavier regulation for companies like Facebook, Twitter, and Alphabet. The S&P 500 index gained 15.26 points or 0.5 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 147.07 points or 0.6 percent. The NASDAQ jumped 59.48 points or 0.7 percent. The Department of Labor said its index of consumer prices edged up 0.2 percent in August, and it’s risen 2.7 percent over the past year.

 

Major Economic Releases for Today
Period Event GMT Forecast Previous

aug

China Retail Sales (YoY) 02:00 8.8% 8.8%

jul

Japan Industrial Production (YoY) 04:30    

 

BOE’s Carney Speaks in Dublin 10:00    

aug

U.S Retail Sales Advance (MoM) 12:30 0.4% 0.5%

aug

U.S Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas 12:30 0.5% 0.6%

aug

U.S Import Price Index ex Petroleum (MoM) 12:30 -0.1% -0.1%

jul

U.S Business Inventories 14:00 0.5% 0.1%

sep

U.S U. of Mich. Sentiment 14:00 96.8 96.2

sep

Baker Hughes U.S Rig Count 17:00   1048
Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.57% to hit a new 6-month high yesterday. The biggest gainers of the session on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were Apple Inc., which rose 2.42% or 5.34 points to trade at 226.41 at the close. International Business Machines added 1.62% or 2.38 points to end at 148.95 and The Travelers Companies Inc. was up 1.53% or 1.94 points to 128.83 in late trade. Biggest losers included McDonald’s Corporation, which lost 1.42% or 2.34 points to trade at 162.40 in late trade. Home Depot Inc. declined 1.19% or 2.53 points to end at 209.45 and Exxon Mobil Corp shed 0.97% or 0.81 points to 82.32.

 

 

NASDAQ 100

The tech-heavy NASDAQ index gained 0.75% yesterday. The top performers on the NASDAQ Composite were Impinj Inc. which rose 33.17% to 25.01, Yulong Eco-Materials Ltd which was up 30.71% to settle at 1.660 and Pinduoduo which gained 30.03% to close at 29.96. The worst performers were DHX Media Ltd which was down 40.74% to 0.80 in late trade, Dragon Victory International Ltd which lost 29.00% to settle at 1.42 and Oxbridge Re Holdings Ltd which was down 18.75% to 1.95 at the close.

 

 

Oil

Oil prices fell more than 2 percent, slipping back from four-month highs as investors focused on the risk that emerging market crises and trade disputes could dent demand even as supply tightens. The International Energy Agency warned that although the oil market was tightening at the moment and world oil demand would soon reach 100 million bpd in the next three months, global economic risks were mounting. U.S. crude settled down 2.5 percent at $68.62 barrel. This was the biggest single-day percentage drop in almost one month, correcting down from Wednesday’s jump in prices after the Energy Information Agency reported a 5.3 million-barrel drop in U.S. crude inventories, versus forecasts for 805,000-barrel drawdown. U.S companies in China are being hurt by tariffs in the growing trade war between Washington and Beijing, according to a survey, prompting U.S business lobbies to urge President Trump’s administration to reconsider its approach.

 

 

 

Precious and Base Metals

Gold prices slid yesterday as investors purchased riskier assets instead of seeking a safe haven in gold, amid hopes for a new round of U.S.-China trade talks. Spot gold declined 0.3 percent to $1,202.30 per ounce, after earlier hitting its highest level since Aug. 28 at $1,212.49. Bullion gained 0.7 percent in the previous session in its biggest single-day rise since Aug. 24. Gold pared gains as China became a focus point once again. U.S. gold futures for December delivery settled down $2.70, or 0.2 percent, at $1,208.20 per ounce. It’s a break of the correlation today between the dollar and gold. Even though the dollar is down, we’re not seeing that equate to higher prices in precious metals. The dollar index declined against a basket of major currencies after data showed U.S. consumer prices increased less than expected in August, paring traders’ outlook that domestic inflation is accelerating. A weaker dollar typically makes dollar-priced gold less expensive for holders of other currencies, but the correlation broke yesterday. The CPI data came after soft U.S. wholesale price data undermined the case for a faster pace of policy tightening by the Fed. The U.S. central bank is widely expected to raise benchmark interest rates at its September meeting.  Higher rates make gold less attractive since it does not pay interest and costs to store and insure.  In trade talks, senior U.S. officials sent an invitation to their Chinese counterparts to hold another bilateral trade meeting, raising speculation about a subtle shift in Washington’s policy. Months-long trade rift between Washington and Beijing has prompted investors to buy the U.S. dollar in the belief that the United States has less to lose from the dispute. This has driven investors toward record short positions in Comex gold and heavy liquidations in gold exchange-traded funds.  But yesterday, possible progress in the trade rift pressured the U.S. dollar. Gold prices have fallen nearly 12 percent since a peak in April amid intensifying global trade tensions and under pressure from rising U.S. interest rates.

 

 

 

 

Traditional Agriculture

Corn and wheat futures were weak, with corn weighed down by the U.S Agriculture Department’s forecast for record U.S yields this fall.

 

Futures Settlement Price Thursday, September 13, 2018
Instrument Contract Open High Low Settlement Net Change
DJIA DJM18 26002 26201 25978 26157 145
S & P 500 SPM18 2886.75 2907 2884.5 2905 16.5
NASDAQ 100 NDM18 7482.75 7582.5 7469.75 7564 78.5
Hang Seng HSH18 26719 27035 26602 26983 648
Nikkei 225 NKH18 22450 22695 22450 22630 180
FTSE 100 FTH18 7303.5 7318.5 7273.5 7289.5 -4.5
Gold GCJ18 1211.7 1217.7 1205 1206.2 -5.1
Silver SIK18 1427.5 1437.5 1418 1418.5 -9
Copper HGK18 268.4 271.75 267.3 267.55 -0.85
Crude Oil CLK18 70.2 70.24 68.32 68.77 -1.5
Wheat WK18 507.25 509.5 495 496 -10.25
Soybeans SK18 840.25 845.75 831.75 833.5 -5.75
Corn CK18 355 355.25 348.5 350 -2.25

 

 

Daily Swings  (The Pivot Levels)
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
DJM18 25800 25889 26023 26112 26246 26335 26469
SPM18 2868.17 2876.33 2890.67 2898.83 2913.17 2921.33 2935.67
NDM18 7382.25 7426.00 7495.00 7538.75 7607.75 7651.50 7720.50
HSH18 26279 26440 26712 26873 27145 27306 27578
NKH18 22243 22347 22488 22592 22733 22837 22978
FTH18 7224.17 7248.83 7269.17 7293.83 7314.17 7338.83 7359.17
GCJ18 1188.87 1196.93 1201.57 1209.63 1214.27 1222.33 1226.97
SIK18 1392.33 1405.17 1411.83 1424.67 1431.33 1444.17 1450.83
HGK18 261.53 264.42 265.98 268.87 270.43 273.32 274.88
CLK18 66.06 67.19 67.98 69.11 69.90 71.03 71.82
WK18 476.33 485.67 490.83 500.17 505.33 514.67 519.83
SK18 814.25 823.00 828.25 837.00 842.25 851.00 856.25
CK18 340.50 344.50 347.25 351.25 354.00 358.00 360.75

  

 Source: – News & Quotes (Courtesy:  Reuters)                                                                    

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

 

 

 

 

14 Sep 2018

FOREX Newsletter

           

FOREX Newsletter

September 14, 2018
 

 

Pulse of the Market

·      Consumer prices in the U.S rose less than expected, increasing 0.2% compared to a gain of 0.3%

·      Inflation numbers came just a day after data showed the producer price index fell 0.1% last month

·      The euro and sterling rallied after the Bank of England and European Central Bank kept rates steady

·      The ECB kept its deposit rate at -0.40% and expects its asset purchase program to end in December

Investors sent EUR/USD to its highest level this month on the back of the European Central Bank’s monetary policy announcement. Considering that Euro was trading strongly ahead of the rate decision, it didn’t take much for the currency pair to hit 1.17 and now that it has many traders are wondering if they should fade or follow the move. Market sentiment and positioning is very important when it comes to trading major event risks. Had the euro been hovering near this month’s low ahead of the rate decision, traders would have latched on to the central bank’s lower economic projections. However, the possibility of a GDP downgrade was leaked yesterday, giving investors the opportunity to discount the central bank’s move. The recent decline in Italian bond yields also helped euro stabilize this week. So when the softer US consumer price index was released, EUR/USD popped higher and extended its gains to 1.1700. Traders, who were looking for a reason to cover their shorts focused on the positive elements of Draghi’s comments. They were happy that he had anything positive to say at all and relieved there was no mention of the data disappointments in Germany and Italy. Sterling also traded higher today but not as a result of the Bank of England’s monetary policy announcement. GBP/USD actually weakened slightly after the central bank voted unanimously to leave interest rates unchanged. Their decision wasn’t a surprised considering that they had just raised interest rates in August. The BoE expects inflation to ease next year due to an energy price cap but pay could be stronger due to a healthy labor market. Ongoing tightening will be needed according to the central bank but future rate hikes will be limited and gradual. It wasn’t until the release of U.S CPI that GBP/USD started to strengthen. The pair eventually broke above 1.31 on the back of the ECB’s optimism and the general weakness of the U.S dollar. Looking ahead, Brexit negotiations continue to go well and we think that they will carry GBP/USD to 1.32. The Australian and New Zealand dollars stretched higher while the Canadian dollar held back. AUD and NZD benefitted from the general improvement in risk appetite and last night’s stronger than expected labor market report.

 

 

 

Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
02:00 China Retail Sales (YoY) (AUG) Medium   8.8% 8.8%
02:00 China Industrial Production (YoY) (AUG) Medium   6.1% 6.0%
04:30 Japan Industrial Production (YoY) (JUL) Medium      
10:00 BOE’s Carney Speaks in Dublin High      
12:30 U.S Retail Sales Advance (MoM) (AUG) High   0.4% 0.5%
12:30 U.S Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas (AUG) Medium   0.5% 0.6%
12:30 U.S Import Price Index ex Petroleum (MoM) (AUG) Medium   -0.1% -0.1%
12:30 U.S Export Price Index (YoY) (AUG) Medium     4.3%
13:15 U.S Industrial Production (MoM) (AUG) Medium   0.3% 0.1%
14:00 U.S Business Inventories (JUL) Medium   0.5% 0.1%
14:00 U.S U. of Mich. Sentiment (SEP) High   96.8 96.2
17:00 Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count (SEP 14) Medium     1048

 

Euro

The single currency has entered a period of correction off 2018 low, rallying up into an important zone. In fact, the major pair has just poked back above the very important resistance level for the first time since April, which if sustained, could officially result in this market transitioning from correction to uptrend. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1607 and a high of 1.1699 before closing the day around 1.1688 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen pair posted gains erasing the losses seen on Wednesday. In economic news, Japanese Core Machinery Orders jumped 11.0%, its sharpest gain since January 2016. Japanese PPI ticked lower to 3.0%, just shy of the forecast of 3.1%. In the U.S, key consumer inflation reports missed their mark. CPI came in at 0.2%, shy of the estimate of 0.3%. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 111.15 and a high of 111.98 before closing the day around 111.90 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound rallied to the highest level against the dollar since August as the U.K pledged to provide information that could help solve a stand-off with the European Union over the Irish border. Sterling has been buffeted by Brexit headlines in recent sessions, oscillating between gains and losses in volatile trading. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.3024 and a high of 1.3122 before closing the day at 1.3103 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar firmed to a two-week high against its U.S counterpart yesterday as tamer-than-expected U.S. inflation data weighed on the greenback, offsetting a pullback in crude oil prices. The greenback fell to a near 1-1/2-month low against a basket of currencies after data showed U.S consumer prices increased less than expected.  Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.2973 and a high of 1.3023 before closing the day at 1.2997 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar is paying for the sins of others as investors short the commodity-exposed currency to 2-1/2-year low as a hedge against risks to global trade, China and emerging markets. Yet having the world’s whipping boy currency is ironically just what Australia needs right now as it faces falling home prices, moribund wages and stubbornly low inflation. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7165 and a high of 0.7227 before closing the day at 0.7189 in the New York session.

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 62 and lies above the neutral zone. In general, the pair has gained 1.17%.

 

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and below 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bullish tone and MACD is also indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 64 reading and lies above the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has gained 1.05%.

  

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading above 14 and below 50, 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is also indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above491 reading and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.86%.

  

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bearish tone and MACD is also issuing a bearish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 43 and lies below the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has gained 0.09%.

  

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish stance and MACD is also indicating a bearish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 48 and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.11%.

 

Appendix

  

FOREX Closing Prices for September 13, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.1625 1.16996 1.16077 1.16886 0.0064
USD/JPY 111.28 111.98 111.151 111.909 0.6670
GBP/USD 1.30428 1.31221 1.30245 1.31037 0.0059
USD/CHF 0.97055 0.97078 0.96499 0.96527 -0.0053
USD/CAD 1.29935 1.30233 1.29738 1.29976 0.0001
EUR/JPY 129.389 130.919 129.237 130.836 1.5070
GBP/JPY 145.167 146.793 144.991 146.67 1.5300
CHF/JPY 114.632 115.978 114.543 115.913 1.3370
AUD/JPY 79.757 80.77 79.671 80.431 0.6870
EUR/GBP 0.89113 0.89283 0.88911 0.89177 0.0008
EUR/CHF 1.12841 1.13133 1.12597 1.12835 -0.0003
GBP/CHF 1.26589 1.26869 1.26259 1.26506 -0.0014

  

 

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1539 1.1573 1.1631 1.1665 1.1723 1.1757 1.1815
USD/JPY 110.55 110.85 111.38 111.68 112.21 112.51 113.04
GBP/USD 1.2947 1.2986 1.3045 1.3083 1.3142 1.3181 1.3240
USD/CHF 0.9575 0.9612 0.9632 0.9670 0.9690 0.9728 0.9748
USD/CAD 1.2924 1.2949 1.2973 1.2998 1.3023 1.3048 1.3072
EUR/JPY 128.06 128.65 129.74 130.33 131.42 132.01 133.11
GBP/JPY 143.71 144.35 145.51 146.15 147.31 147.95 149.11
CHF/JPY 113.54 114.04 114.98 115.48 116.41 116.91 117.85
AUD/JPY 78.71 79.19 79.81 80.29 80.91 81.39 82.01
EUR/GBP 0.8859 0.8875 0.8896 0.8912 0.8934 0.8950 0.8971
EUR/CHF 1.1204 1.1232 1.1258 1.1286 1.1311 1.1339 1.1365
GBP/CHF 1.2561 1.2593 1.2622 1.2654 1.2683 1.2715 1.2744

 

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

13 Sep 2018

Daily Market View

 

Daily Market View

Thursday, September 13, 2018
          U.S Stock Market

 

DJIA S & P 500 NASDAQ
26012 2888.50 7485.50
+0.14% +0.08% -0.20%

U.S stocks traded lower yesterday as Apple Inc. unveiled new iPhones that continued the X series first launched last year. The S&P 500 and the Dow, which had earlier traded higher on a report that the U.S government is seeking new trade talks with China, retreated, joining the NASDAQ in negative territory. The S&P 500 index wove in and out of positive territory to fall 2 points or 0.1% and the NASDAQ shed 45 points, or 0.6%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average reversed direction to drop 35 points, a decline of 0.1%. The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ have risen for two straight sessions through Tuesday though that comes after a four-day skid. On the trade front, the U.S. has reached out to China for follow-up talks after negotiations last month concluded without results, The Wall Street Journal reported yesterday. The move is viewed as an effort to give Beijing another opportunity to resolve outstanding trade issues before the Trump administration slaps more tariffs on Chinese imports, the Journal said.

 

 

Major Economic Releases for Today
Period Event GMT Forecast Previous

aug

Australia Employment Change 01:30 18.0k -3.9k

sep

Bank of England Bank Rate 11:00 0.750% 0.750%

sep

BOE Asset Purchase Target 11:00 435b 435b

sep

European Central Bank Rate Decision 11:45 0.000% 0.000%

 

ECB President Draghi Holds Press Conference in Frankfurt 12:30    

aug

U.S Consumer Price Index (YoY) 12:30 2.8% 2.9%

sep

U.S Initial Jobless Claims 12:30 210k 203k

aug

U.S Real Avg Hourly Earning (YoY) 12:30   -0.1%

aug

U.S Monthly Budget Statement 18:00 -$185.0b -$107.7b
 

Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.11%. The best performers of the session on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc., which rose 2.39% or 1.64 points to trade at 70.38 at the close. Meanwhile, Boeing Co added 2.36% or 8.16 points to end at 353.41 and Caterpillar Inc. was up 1.58% or 2.25 points to 144.28 in late trade. The worst performers of the session were 3M Company, which fell 2.39% or 5.07 points to trade at 206.71 at the close. Apple Inc. declined 1.24% or 2.78 points to end at 221.07 and DowDuPont Inc. was down 1.20% or 0.84 points to 69.24.

 

 

NASDAQ 100

The NASDAQ index declined 0.23%. The top performers on the NASDAQ Composite were Inpixon which rose 68.80% to 0.2083, XBiotech Inc. which was up 26.62% to settle at 2.92 and Aoxin Tianli Group Inc. which gained 23.68% to close at 1.8799. The worst performers were Vital Thera which was down 92.86% to 0.45 in late trade, Netlist Inc. which lost 42.79% to settle at 0.369 and Auris Medical Holding AG which was down 28.49% to 0.311 at the close.

 

Oil

Oil futures settled higher yesterday, as a hefty decline in domestic crude supplies and uncertainty tied to the energy impact from Hurricane Florence combined to lift U.S prices past $70 a barrel. October futures U.S benchmark rose $1.12, or 1.6%, to settle at $70.37 a barrel. Prices based on the front-month contracts marked the highest settlement since July 20. The threat of Florence to the Carolinas and Virginia increased in recent days as the storm has grown over the Atlantic, prompting evacuation orders for more than 1 million people ahead of landfall for the major hurricane, which is expected to approach the coast of the Carolinas on Thursday. Concerns about the impending storm and expected disruptions to supply have underpinned recent crude-price gains. Evacuations ahead of the hurricane have caused a spike in gasoline, with some stations in the Carolinas running short of fuel. Analysts have also voiced concerns that the storm may cause disruptions to the flow of fuel through the key Colonial Pipeline.

 

Precious and Base Metals

Gold turned positive yesterday as the U.S dollar weakened against a basket of major currencies after hopes grew of concessions by Canada that would resolve disputes over reworking the North American Free Trade Agreement. Spot gold was up 0.8 percent at $1,206.94 per ounce, after hitting its lowest since Aug. 24 at $1,187.21 on Tuesday. U.S gold futures for December delivery settled up $8.70, or 0.7 percent, at $1,210.90 per ounce. The U.S. dollar index faded against a basket of major currencies as news emerged that Canada was ready to offer the United States limited access to the Canadian dairy market as a concession in negotiations to rework the North American Free Trade Agreement. The dollar is significantly weaker against major currencies today and commodities are supported across the board. Any type of resolution in the agreement is going to support those currencies. A trade conflict between Washington and Beijing had earlier prompted investors to buy the U.S. dollar in the belief that the United States has less to lose from the dispute. Gold has lost out to the dollar in a battle for safe-haven flows. The dollar index touched a three-week high of 95.74 last week. In addition, a sell-off in the Chinese yuan made the metal more expensive for buyers from the world’s top consumer of the metal. But yesterday’s reversal in the greenback made gold less expensive for holders of other currencies. Meanwhile, the U.S. central bank is widely expected to raise benchmark interest rates at its September meeting and expectations are growing for one more hike in December on positive economic data. Higher rates increase bond yields, making non-yielding bullion less attractive, and tend to boost the dollar, in which gold is priced. Gold has fallen more than 10 percent from a peak in April, under pressure from rising U.S. interest rates amid intensifying global trade tensions. Spot silver increased 0.9 percent at $14.21 per ounce, having touched $13.90 in the previous session, its lowest since January 2016.

 

 

 

Traditional Agriculture

Wheat recouped some of the last session’s steep losses which were triggered by a lack of demand for U.S cargoes and selling by investors. Soybean futures eased for a second session yesterday.

 

 

Futures Settlement Price Wednesday, September 12, 2018
Instrument Contract Open High Low Settlement Net Change
DJIA DJM18 26002 26160 25937 26012 13
S & P 500 SPM18 2890 2895.25 2879.5 2888.5 -1.25
NASDAQ 100 NDM18 7514.75 7539.5 7424.5 7485.5 -26.5
Hang Seng HSH18 26343 26432 26166 26335 32
Nikkei 225 NKH18 22700 22720 22525 22625 -35
FTSE 100 FTH18 7282 7324.5 7249.5 7294 16.5
Gold GCJ18 1203 1213.6 1197.5 1211.3 7.8
Silver SIK18 1415 1430.5 1409 1427.5 11.5
Copper HGK18 262.25 268.8 260.65 268.4 5.95
Crude Oil CLK18 69.85 71.23 69.46 70.27 0.4
Wheat WK18 519.25 529 500 506.25 -11.75
Soybeans SK18 830.75 844.5 821 839.25 7.5
Corn CK18 365.75 365.75 350.5 352.25 -14.25

 

 

Daily Swings  (The Pivot Levels)
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2
DJM18 25690 25813 25913 26036 26136 26259 26359
SPM18 2864.50 2872.00 2880.25 2887.75 2896.00 2903.50 2911.75
NDM18 7311.83 7368.17 7426.83 7483.17 7541.83 7598.17 7656.83
HSH18 25924 26045 26190 26311 26456 26577 26722
NKH18 22332 22428 22527 22623 22722 22818 22917
FTH18 7179.17 7214.33 7254.17 7289.33 7329.17 7364.33 7404.17
GCJ18 1185.23 1191.37 1201.33 1207.47 1217.43 1223.57 1233.53
SIK18 1392.67 1400.83 1414.17 1422.33 1435.67 1443.83 1457.17
HGK18 254.95 257.80 263.10 265.95 271.25 274.10 279.40
CLK18 67.64 68.55 69.41 70.32 71.18 72.09 72.95
WK18 465.50 482.75 494.50 511.75 523.50 540.75 552.50
SK18 801.83 811.42 825.33 834.92 848.83 858.42 872.33
CK18 331.33 340.92 346.58 356.17 361.83 371.42 377.08

 

 

 

 Source: – News & Quotes (Courtesy:  Reuters)                                                                    

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

 

 

 

 

13 Sep 2018

FOREX Newsletter

 

FOREX Newsletter

September 13, 2018
 

 

Pulse of the Market

·      A leading U.S inflation indicator dented expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike in December

·      The U.S Labor Department said its producer price index decreased 0.1% last month

·      In times of uncertainty, investors tend to invest in the Yen, which is considered a safe asset

·      The British Pound was lower amid ongoing Brexit concerns, with GBP/USD falling 0.13%

Today is a big day for euro and sterling. There are 2 monetary policy announcements on the calendar and the U.S. consumer price report. This means that not only will we learn how eager central banks in Europe are to tighten monetary policy but we’ll also see how much pressure there is for the Federal Reserve to continue raising interest rates. The U.S. dollar traded lower against all of the major currencies today after an unexpected decline in producer prices. PPI fell for the first time in 18 months as oil prices stabilized and the dollar strengthened. CPI could be vulnerable to the same forces, especially as gas prices held steady last month. With that in mind according to the Beige Book, a few Fed district reported an increase in inflation pressures. However the dollar did not respond well to the Fed’s report because even though they said prices are rising in some areas and the economy expanded at a moderate pace, most districts noted concern and uncertainty over trade. They also did not see significant wage growth despite the tightness of labor market. There’s no question that the Fed will raise rates later this month especially with input costs rising but if CPI falls short of expectations, it will give investors another excuse to sell dollars. Although USD/JPY is consolidating between 110.50 and 111.80, the greenback could retreat more significantly against other currencies. The euro benefitted from Brexit optimism but there’s talk the ECB could lower their growth forecasts on the heels of softer data. These expectations are reinforced by the latest Eurozone industrial production report, which showed activity dropping 0.8% in the month of July. The ECB has taken every opportunity to talk down the currency and with trade tensions rising they should share the same concerns as Fed districts. The central bank made it clear at recent meetings that they have no plans to raise interest rates until late next year and their outlook isn’t likely to change since recent data has been mixed.

 

 

 

Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
01:30 Australia Employment Change (AUG) High   18.0k -3.9k
01:30 Australia Unemployment Rate (AUG) High   5.3% 5.3%
06:00 German Consumer Price Index (YoY) (AUG) Medium   2.0% 2.00%
11:00 Bank of England Bank Rate (SEP 13) High   0.750% 0.750%
11:00 BOE Asset Purchase Target (SEP) High   435b 435b
11:45 European Central Bank Rate Decision (SEP 13) High   0.000% 0.000%
11:45 ECB Deposit Facility Rate (SEP 13) High   -0.400% -0.400%
12:30 ECB President Draghi Holds Press Conference in Frankfurt High      
12:30 Canada New Housing Price Index (MoM) (JUL) Low   0.1% 0.1%
12:30 U.S Consumer Price Index (YoY) (AUG) High   2.8% 2.9%
12:30 U.S Consumer Price Index Ex Food and Energy (YoY) (AUG) High   2.4% 2.4%
12:30 U.S Initial Jobless Claims (SEP 8) Medium   210k 203k
12:30 U.S Continuing Claims (SEP 1) Medium   1710k 1707k
12:30 U.S Real Avg Hourly Earning (YoY) (AUG) Medium     -0.1%
18:00 U.S Monthly Budget Statement (AUG) Medium   -$185.0b -$107.7b

 

Euro

The single currency rose yesterday in advance of the European Central Bank meeting, putting pressure on the dollar as traders remained worried about the trade friction between the United States and China. Traders sought to exit some bearish bets on the single currency, which fell earlier on reports that ECB policymakers will trim their growth forecasts. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1568 and a high of 1.1648 before closing the day around 1.1624 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen gained some ground in yesterday’s trading session against the U.S Dollar, with the USD/JPY pair down 0.17% to 111.46. On Sept. 10, Japan reported accelerated growth in the second quarter. The Japanese economy grew at an annualized 3% in the second quarter, the fastest pace in two years. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 111.09 and a high of 111.63 before closing the day around 111.24 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound oscillated between gains and losses in volatile trading as the market faced competing headlines about Brexit prospects. Sterling is struggling to hold on to a rally this week spurred by comments from European officials on the potential for a Brexit deal within weeks. Traders will next be watching for direction from the Bank of England. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.2977 and a high of 13078 before closing the day at 1.3044 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar edged higher, holding on to gains from the day before as oil prices rose and domestic data showed that industries operated at a lower-than-expected percentage of production capacity. The loonie was boosted on Tuesday by increased optimism that a deal to renew the North American Free Trade Agreement would be reached.  Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.2978 and a high of 1.3076 before closing the day at 1.2996 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar staged a riposte to short-sellers yesterday, rising broadly against rivals, in response to signs of a detente in the U.S. “trade war” with China and as traders took up positions ahead of the latest employment report. Australia’s Dollar was boosted Wednesday when the People’s Bank of China injected further stimulus into the domestic financial system. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7091 and a high of 0.7180 before closing the day at 0.7171 in the New York session.

 

 

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 50 and lies above the neutral zone. In general, the pair has lost 0.32%.

 

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and below 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish tone and MACD is indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 56 reading and lies above the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has gained 0.18%.

  

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading above 14 and below 50, 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 31 reading and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.99%.

  

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bearish tone and MACD is also issuing a bearish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 41 and lies below the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.50%.

  

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bullish stance and MACD is indicating a bearish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 50 and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.30%.

 

Appendix

  

FOREX Closing Prices for September 12, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.16033 1.16483 1.15687 1.16246 0.0020
USD/JPY 111.55 111.633 111.095 111.242 -0.3690
GBP/USD 1.30274 1.3078 1.29777 1.30444 0.0013
USD/CHF 0.9721 0.97479 0.96938 0.97055 -0.0016
USD/CAD 1.3064 1.30761 1.29781 1.29969 -0.0069
EUR/JPY 129.453 129.787 128.913 129.329 -0.1940
GBP/JPY 145.343 145.627 144.651 145.14 -0.3040
CHF/JPY 114.716 114.79 114.292 114.576 -0.2000
AUD/JPY 79.43 79.976 79.044 79.744 0.3270
EUR/GBP 0.89042 0.8935 0.88802 0.89097 0.0005
EUR/CHF 1.12811 1.13089 1.12665 1.1286 0.0003
GBP/CHF 1.26645 1.2701 1.26268 1.26646 -0.0003

 

 

 

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1500 1.1534 1.1579 1.1614 1.1659 1.1693 1.1739
USD/JPY 110.48 110.79 111.01 111.32 111.55 111.86 112.09
GBP/USD 1.2888 1.2933 1.2989 1.3033 1.3089 1.3134 1.3189
USD/CHF 0.9629 0.9662 0.9684 0.9716 0.9738 0.9770 0.9792
USD/CAD 1.2860 1.2919 1.2958 1.3017 1.3056 1.3115 1.3154
EUR/JPY 128.03 128.47 128.90 129.34 129.77 130.22 130.65
GBP/JPY 143.68 144.16 144.65 145.14 145.63 146.12 146.60
CHF/JPY 113.82 114.05 114.32 114.55 114.81 115.05 115.31
AUD/JPY 78.27 78.66 79.20 79.59 80.13 80.52 81.06
EUR/GBP 0.8827 0.8854 0.8882 0.8908 0.8936 0.8963 0.8991
EUR/CHF 1.1223 1.1245 1.1265 1.1287 1.1308 1.1330 1.1350
GBP/CHF 1.2553 1.2590 1.2627 1.2664 1.2701 1.2738 1.2776

 

 

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

 

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