Retail Sales overview

Early Friday, the market sees preliminary readings of the Australia Retail Sales for October month at 00:30 GMT. Market consensus suggests an upbeat MoM print of +2.5% versus +1.3% prior readings, suggesting the sustained improvement in economic activity after positing the first positive figure in the last four months during September.

Given the recently strong inflation data crossing roads with the Aussie jobs report, not to forget the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) cautious optimism, today’s Retail Sales figures become all the more important for AUD/USD traders.

Ahead of the data, TD Securities said,

We expect retail sales to extend its turnaround in Oct, rising by 2.2% m/m (cons: 2.2%). The reopening in NSW should give a strong boost to spending but we are cautious on extrapolating overall strength as Vic’s restrictions only began to ease towards month-end. Nonetheless, we are optimistic on the consumer spending outlook over the next couple of months as year-end celebrations are likely to boost sales while further easing of restrictions and opening of international borders could give another leg up to spending domestically.

How could it affect AUD/USD?

AUD/USD remains on the back foot around a three-month low amid a quiet Asian session ahead of the key data. While an off in the US and a light calendar challenges momentum traders, the RBA v/s Fed battle keeps the Aussie pair sellers hopeful. Also weighing on the quote could be the recent coronavirus woes and the Sino-American tussles.

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) intent to wait for further details before announcing rate hike plans will join the Aussie data disappointment and fresh covid fears to weigh on the quote should the Retail Sales reverse the previous month’s expansion. However, the recent unlocks in Australia tame fears of any such downbeat figures. Hence, a corrective pullback can be witnessed if the scheduled figure arrive as better than expected.

Technically, a sustained trading below a three-month-old support line, now resistance around 0.7260, joins downbeat MACD signals and a bear cross of the 20-DMA to 100-DMA to keep AUD/USD sellers hopeful.

Key Notes

AUD/USD bears head towards Oct daily lows

AUD/USD Forecast: Lower lows hint at a new leg south towards yearly lows

About Australian Retail Sales

The Retail Sales released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is a survey of goods sold by retailers is based on a sampling of retail stores of different types and sizes and it”s considered as an indicator of the pace of the Australian economy. It shows the performance of the retail sector over the short and mid-term. Positive economic growth anticipates bullish trends for the AUD, while a low reading is seen as negative or bearish.

  • GBP/USD struggles to overcome the 2021 bottom, stays inside bearish chart pattern.
  • MACD conditions hint at seller’s exhaustion but bulls need validation from 50-SMA, falling resistance line from November 09.
  • 61.8% FE guards immediate downside amid oversold RSI conditions.

GBP/USD defends the 1.3300 threshold, taking rounds to the recently flashed yearly low during the early Asian session on Friday. In doing so, the cable stays inside a one-week-old falling trend channel.

Although the bearish channel keeps sellers hopeful, MACD and RSI conditions signal a corrective pullback targeting the channel’s upper line near 1.3340.

It’s worth noting that the quote’s upside momentum past 1.3340 need not only cross the 50-SMA level of 1.3415 but a 13-day-old falling trend line near 1.3435 to recall the GBP/USD buyers.

Following that, a run-up to the mid-November’s swing high close to 1.3515 can’t be ruled out.

Alternatively, 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of the pair’s moves between November 03 and 18, around 1.3300 offers strong immediate support to the GBP/USD prices.

Even if the sellers manage to conquer the psychological magnet, the stated channel’s lower line may act as an extra filter to the south, around 1.3275, before directing the quote towards the 78.6% FE level of 1.3240.

GBP/USD: Four-hour chart

Trend: Corrective pullback expected

 

  • El AUD/JPY desciende por segundo día consecutivo, a pesar del sentimiento de riesgo del mercado.
  • El jueves, el AUD/JPY se mantuvo moderado, sin una dirección clara.

El AUD/JPY cae durante el día, bajando un 0.15%, operando en 82.93 durante el día en el momento de escribir este artículo. A pesar de las escasas condiciones de liquidez, el sentimiento del mercado sigue siendo optimista ya que los mercados estadounidenses permanecen cerrados por el Día de Acción de Gracias. Los principales índices de futuros de acciones de EE.UU. suben entre un 0.11% y un 0.23%, continuando con el estado de ánimo del mercado observado en la sesión europea.

El jueves, durante la sesión nocturna, el par AUD/JPY se mantuvo apagado, operando en un rango, con la SMA de 50, 100 y 200 se encuentran dentro del área de 82.90-83.17, lo que implica que en el corto plazo el AUD/JPY está dentro del rango.

Dicho esto, el AUD/JPY a corto plazo se basaría principalmente en el sentimiento puro del mercado a menos que el Banco de la Reserva de Australia (RBA), que ha sido más moderado de lo esperado, cambie su postura moderada hacia una agresiva. Eso originaría flujos hacia el dólar australiano sin considerar tanto el sentimiento del mercado.

Pronóstico del precio del AUD/JPY: Perspectiva técnica

El AUD/JPY tiene un sesgo alcista, a pesar de la corrección en curso, que ha sido testigo de una prueba del promedio móvil de 50 días (DMA), que fue perforado el miércoles pero recuperado por los alcistas del AUD el jueves. En el momento de la publicación, la DMA de 50 se ubica en 82.98, un nivel que los alcistas del AUD deberían reclamar.

El resultado de un cierre diario por encima de 83.00 podría allanar el camino para una mayor subida. La primera resistencia que superarían los operadores del AUD/JPY sería el máximo del 19 de noviembre en 83.35, seguido por el máximo del ciclo del 16 de noviembre en 84.15.

Por otro lado, no recuperar 83.00 abriría la puerta hacia la DMA de 100 en 81.85, aunque encontraría algunos obstáculos en el camino hacia abajo, como el mínimo del 19 de noviembre en 82.15.

Niveles técnicos

                                 

“New Zealand’s economy is quite resilient,” said RBNZ Assistant Governor Christian Hawkesby during an interview with Bloomberg TV amid early Friday morning In Asia.

Key comments

We must lean against domestic price forces.

So far, the increase in expectations has been as expected.

Inflation expectations will be critical for us.

We’ve got a very tight labor market.

Covid in community is a downside risk.

Risks to the outlook are delicately balanced.

Market reaction

NZD/USD pays a little heed to the RBNZ official’s comments, taking rounds to 0.6860 following a drop to a fresh three-month low.