• El repunte del GBP/JPY se extiende a nuevos máximos de cinco meses en 155.70.
  • La libra sigue cotizando en las expectativas de alza del Banco de Inglaterra.
  • GBP/JPY podría llegar a 159.80 – Credit Suisse.

La GBP se ha apreciado por sexto día consecutivo el jueves, rompiendo el nivel de 155.00 para acercarse a máximos de tres años justo por encima de 156.00. Permanece ofrecido por la debilidad del yen el jueves, después de haber ganado casi un 4% en lo que va de octubre.

Las expectativas de subida de tipos del BoE están respaldando el repunte de la libra esterlina

La libra esterlina sigue cotizando en un tono firme, con los inversores valorando una subida de tipos de interés por parte del Banco de Inglaterra a principios del próximo año. Los crecientes precios de la energía han empujado la inflación anual a niveles casi el doble del objetivo del Banco de Inglaterra para la estabilidad de precios en el Reino Unido, y algunos funcionarios del Banco están comenzando a sugerir la posibilidad de acelerar el plan de normalización de la política monetaria.

Además, un apetito algo mayor por el riesgo el jueves ha sopesado los activos seguros, como el yen japonés, favoreciendo divisas más riesgosas como la libra esterlina. Los principales mercados de valores del mundo están registrando avances sustanciales, y los índices estadounidenses cotizan muy por encima del 1% en el momento de redactar este informe.

El Dow Jones subió un 1.49% al alza, con los índices S&P y Dow Jones avanzan un 1.62% y un 1.68% respectivamente con resultados trimestrales optimistas que compensan las preocupaciones sobre las presiones inflacionarias y los cuellos de botella de la cadena de suministro que frustran la recuperación económica.

GBP/JPY podría extender su rally hacia 159.80 – Credit Suisse

Desde un punto de vista técnico, el par parece estar listo para extender su rally a niveles cercanos a 160.00, según el equipo de análisis de divisas de Credit Suisse: “Con una base importante ya establecida en febrero de 2021, buscamos una ruptura por encima de 156.62 a refuerza aún más la perspectiva positiva, con una resistencia próxima en 159.80″.

Niveles técnicos

                         

  • The euro resumes its downtrend to hit 19-month lows at 0.8450.
  • The pound remains bid on BoE hike expectations.
  • A sustained move below 0.8437 would accelerate the downtrend – Credit Suisse.

The euro has resumed its negative trend against the British pound on Thursday, hitting prices below 0.8470 for the first time since last August, to test 19 month-lows at 0.8450, which so far has resisted the pressure.

The pound remains firm on BoE tightening expectations

The British pound maintains a firm tone, buoyed by market expectations of a BoE rate hike early next year, and probably further tightening to follow to tackle inflationary pressures. Surging energy prices have pushed yearly inflation to levels almost twice the Bank of England’s target for price stability which has prompted some Bank officials to admit the possibility of accelerating the monetary policy normalization plan.

Furthermore, the European Union’s proposal to scrap custom checks for products arriving in Northern Ireland from Britain has eased fears about another stand-off with the Union, which has increased demand for the pound.

EUR/GBP: Breach of 0.8437 would accelerate the downtrend – Credit Suisse

According to the Credit Suisse’s FX Analysis team expect the 0.8449/37 support area to hols although, they warn about the possibility of downward acceleration if such level is broken: “Whilst we would again look for a fresh hold at 0.8449/37 and swing higher in the channel, a sustained move below 0.8437 would mark an acceleration in the downtrend, then exposing the key lows of 2019 and 2020 at 0.8281/39.”

Technical levels to watch

 

 

  • USD/CHF recovers from a 120 pip drop from the European session.
  • Lower US T-bond yields capped the recovery of the USD/CHF pair.
  • USD/CHF: A daily close above the Wednesday low increases the odds for another leg-up.

The USD/CHF trims Thursday’s losses barely declines 0.09%, trading at 0.9234 during the New York session at the time of writing. The Swiss franc strengthened against the greenback earlier in the European session, sending the pair tumbling towards Thursday’s daily low at 0.9198. However, despite still below the day’s open, the buck is staging a comeback and jumped almost 120 pips from the daily lows.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index, which measures the greenback’s performance against a basket of its peers, is slumping 0.05%, at 93.97, underpinned by the US T-bond 10-year yield struggling to hold to the 1.5’% threshold, sits at 1.519%, down three basis points.

USD/CHF Price Forecast: Technical outlook

Daily chart

The USD/CHF is in an uptrend, depicted by the daily chart, showing the daily moving averages (DMA’s) located below the spot price, acting as dynamic support levels. In fact, Thursday’s price action briefly broke below the 50-DMA, which lies at 0.9215 but bounced off, approaching Wednesday’s low of 0.9235.

For dollar buyers to resume the upward trend, they need a daily close above the Wednesday low. In that outcome, the USD/CHF will find its first resistance at 0.9300. A breach of the latter could push the pair towards the confluence of the March 9 and the September 30 highs around the 0.9375-0.9368 area, which was unsuccessfully tested two times.

On the other hand, failure at the Wednesday low could send the pair tumbling towards the 50-DMA. A sustained break below that level could push the USD/CHF towards the 100 and the 200-DMA, at 0.9166 and 0.9132, respectively.

The Relative Strenght Index (RSI) is at 47, edging slightly low, indicating that USD/CHF could have another leg down.

KEY ADDITIONAL LEVELS TO WATCH

 

  • NZD/USD holds in positive territory as the US dollar slides.
  • Inflation risks are supporting the currency complex and the NZ dollar.
  • US PPI does not meet the consensus but inflation concerns are rampant.  

At the time of writing, NZD/USD is trading at 0.7025 and up almost 1% on the day after rising from a low of 0.6958 to a high of 0.7040.  The US dollar continues to underperform despite the strong US Consumer Price Index data and hawkish Federal Reserve minutes which outlined more detail around the central bank’s intentions to start to taper, perhaps as soon as November. The greenback was touching a 10-day low as rising risk appetite put a brake on the safe-haven currency’s recent rally, while the Aussie and Kiwi dollars gained.

US dollar sinks further on profit-taking

Expectations that the US Federal Reserve would tighten monetary policy more quickly than previously expected amid an improving economy and surging inflation had fuelled a rise in the greenback since early September. Profit-taking has ensued and improved risk sentiment has also dented the greenback.

Additionally, Producer price growth slowed in September to the lowest level this year as airline passenger service costs plunged. The seasonally adjusted producer price index rose 0.5%, compared with a 0.7% gain in August, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Thursday. The latest print was the lowest since December and came in line with the consensus on Econoday.

In other data, a Labor Department report showed US Consumer Prices rose solidly in September, and they are likely to rise further amid a surge in energy prices, potentially pressuring the Fed to act sooner to normalise policy. The Fed’s September meeting minutes yesterday also showed that a growing number of policymakers were worried that high inflation could persist. The dollar index is flat at the time of writing on the day at 93.999 but met its lowest since Oct 5 at 93.759. On Tuesday this week, it had reached a one-year high at 94.563.

Commodity currencies bid on the inflation hedge

The markets are concerned about the nature of the global inflation cycle and its persistence. With these global factors dominating, commodity currencies can benefit from the inflation hedge. In this regard, next week’s NZ CPI data will be a key domestic event. 

NZD/USD technical analysis

The price on the weekly chart is on the verge of a fresh bullish impulse but the flag’s resistance is not far off. A break there could lead to a significant rally while, otherwise, the will be prospects of a lower low to the channel’s support. 

 

  • Bullion prices reach fresh one-month highs at $1,800.
  • US dollar weakness and inflation concerns boost gold’s rally.
  • XAU/USD: Next targets might be $1,807 and $1,830.

Gold futures’ appreciated for the third consecutive day on Thursday, favored by a somewhat softer dollar, to reach fresh one-month highs at $1,800 before consolidating above $1,790.

Gold rallies further as the USD loses ground

Bullion ticked up about $1 to it $1,800 for the first time since mid-September, on the back of a retreating US dollar, weighed by a flattening US yields curve. Long Term Treasury yields have retreated sharply over the last three days, with the yield of the 10-year note down to 1.52% after peaking above 1.60% earlier this week, while shorter-term yields surge to multi-month lows amid expectations that the Fed will soon announce the end of its QE program.

Furthermore, increasing concerns about the growing inflationary pressures are starting to translate into higher demand for gold, a traditional inflation hedge. Chinese producer prices surged to a 26-year high in September with a 10.7% increase year-on-year, which has reactivated concerns about the risks of stagflation. Earlier this week, US Consumer Prices accelerated to a 13-year high, confirming persistent consumer inflation and increasing pressure on the Federal Reserve to start normalizing its monetary policy.

XAU/USD, aimed to $1,807 on track to $1,830

From a technical perspective, gold prices have regained bullish momentum to attempt an assault to $1,807 (Sept. 15 high) ahead of $1.830 July and September’s peak. If that level is surpassed, the next potential target might be June 8 and 11 highs at $1,905.

On the downside, the pair remains supported above previous weeks’ highs at $1,70, with next potential support areas at $1,745 (October 6 low) and below here, a key support area at $1,725 (September 29, 30 low).

Technical levels to watch

 

 

  • La caída del EUR/USD en 1.1600 amenaza con llevar la moneda única a nuevos mínimos anuales.
  • El sentimiento de riesgo del mercado pesa sobre las monedas de refugio seguro, como el dólar estadounidense.
  • Los miembros del BCE coinciden con las presiones alcistas de la inflación como “transitorias”.
  • Bóstico de la Fed: La inflación parece ser la última más debido a las cadenas de suministro.
  • Daly de la Fed: Los cuellos de botella son la principal causa del aumento de los precios.

El EUR/USD se desploma durante la sesión de Nueva York, operando en 1.1588, bajando un 0.04% en el momento de escribir este artículo. A principios de la sesión asiática, la moneda única subió a un nuevo máximo semanal en 1.1624, recuperando los umbrales de 1.1600. Sin embargo, cuando los operadores europeos llegaron a sus escritorios, el euro descendió agresivamente, y los vendedores empujaron al par por debajo de 1.1600.

El sentimiento de riesgo del mercado ha mantenido a monedas de refugio seguro como el dólar estadounidense presionadas a la baja. Las monedas más riesgosas como el AUD, el CAD y el NZD superan al dólar. Sin embargo, las actuales divergencias entre el Banco Central Europeo y la Reserva Federal, lista para iniciar la reducción gradual de los bonos, pesan sobre la moneda compartida.

Durante la sesión europea, algunos miembros del BCE cruzaron los cables. Klass Knot dijo que las perspectivas de inflación para la zona euro están de nuevo en marcha. En el mismo tono, Christine Lagarde, presidenta del Banco Central Europeo, dijo que continúan considerando que el repunte de la inflación se debe en gran medida a factores temporales.

Dicho esto, la mayoría de los formuladores de políticas del BCE parecen adherirse a la narrativa “transitoria”, contrariamente a lo que los miembros de la Reserva Federal han expresado recientemente.

Al otro lado del charco, el jueves, el presidente de la Reserva Federal de Atlanta, Raphael Bostic, dijo que la inflación parece ser el último anhelo debido a la cadena de suministro y la escasez de mano de obra. En el mismo tono, y al mismo tiempo, la presidenta de San Francisco, Mary Duly, dijo que los cuellos de botella son la principal causa del aumento de precios. Agregó que la inflación disminuiría a medida que mejorara la crisis de COVID-19.

Las solicitudes iniciales de desempleo en EE.UU. aumentaron a 293.000 mejor que las 319.000 esperadas

En la agenda económica europea, no hay nada que informar. En lo que respecta a EE. UU., Las Solicitudes Iniciales de Desempleo aumentaron a 293.000 mejor que las 319.000 previstas por los analistas, lo que arrojó noticias positivas sobre el mercado laboral. Además, el índice de precios al productor de EE.UU. aumentó un 8.6% menos que el 8.7% estimado, mientras que excluyendo alimentos y energía, se expandió un 6.8% por debajo del 7.1% esperado.

Niveles técnicos

 

             

  • El AUD/USD rompe por encima de 0.7400 por primera vez en un mes.
  • El sentimiento de riesgo en el mercado hace que los inversores se vuelvan hacia activos de mayor riesgo, lo que impulsa al AUD.
  • Las solicitudes iniciales de desempleo en los EE.UU. cayeron por debajo de 300.000.

El AUD sube un 0.58% y opera en 0.7423 durante la sesión americana en el momento de escribir este artículo. El sentimiento del mercado es optimista, reflejado en la subida de los índices bursátiles europeos y estadounidenses. Los datos macroeconómicos positivos de Estados Unidos sobre el mercado laboral y los precios pagados por los productores estadounidenses impulsan el apetito por el riesgo de los inversores.

DXY rompe por debajo de 94.00, respaldado por la caída de los rendimientos de los bonos del tesoro de EE.UU.

El índice del dólar estadounidense que mide el desempeño del dólar frente a una canasta de seis rivales se está deslizando un 0.03%, a 93.99, mientras que el rendimiento de los bonos Tesoro de EE.UU. a 10 años lucha por mantenerse en los niveles del día anterior, se ubica en 1.526%.

En cuanto a los datos, la agenda económica australiana presentó el informe de empleo, que mostró que la economía perdió 138.000 puestos de trabajo peor de lo esperado en septiembre, mientras que la tasa de desempleo subió al 4.6%.

En el frente estadounidense, las Solicitudes Iniciales de Desempleo de EE.UU. llegaron a 293.000 mejor que las 319.000 previstas por los analistas, brindando noticias positivas sobre el mercado laboral al tiempo que aumentan las posibilidades de que la Reserva Federal se reduzca al ritmo de la flexibilización cuantitativa. Además, el Índice de Precios al Productor de EE.UU. aumentó un 8.6% menos que el 8.7% estimado, mientras que excluyendo alimentos y energía, se expandió un 6.8% por debajo del 7.1% esperado.

Dicho esto, las noticias positivas durante el día beneficiaron a las monedas sensibles al riesgo, como el dólar australiano, que recuperó los umbrales de 0.7400. Sin embargo, el sentimiento del mercado oscilante debido a las condiciones económicas cambiantes podría poner un freno al AUD/USD.

Pronóstico del precio del AUD/USD: Perspectiva técnica
Gráfico diario

El AUD/USD cotiza por encima del promedio móvil de 100 días (DMA) en 0.7416, mientras que la DMA de 200 está por encima del precio al contado, lo que indica que la tendencia principal se inclina a la baja. Sin embargo, los indicadores de impulso con el Índice de Fuerza Relativa (RSI) en 64, apuntando más alto, sugieren que la tendencia a corto plazo se inclina al alza.

Para que los compradores del AUD/USD reanuden la tendencia alcista, necesitan un cierre diario por encima de la DMA de 100. En ese resultado, la primera resistencia sería el máximo del 3 de septiembre en 0.7478. Una ruptura de este último podría exponer niveles de soporte cruciales, el 6 de julio en 0.7599 y luego el nivel psicológico 0.7700.

  • USD/CAD suffers another drop on Thursday as USD sinks to a 10-day low.
  • The global energy crisis supports CAD as oil prices rise.
  • Canadian data also adds to the bullish case; Canadian factory sales rose.

USD/CAD is trading at 1.2370 and down some 0.57% after falling from a high of 1.2445 to a low of 1.2354 on Thursday so far. The Canadian dollar has strengthened to its highest level in more than three months against its US counterpart, as the energy crisis underpins the nation’s biggest exporting industry, oil. 

Rising energy prices support CAD

The price of oil, one of Canada’s major exports, rose after the International Energy Agency said that record natural gas prices would boost demand for oil and top oil producer Saudi Arabia dismissed calls for additional OPEC+ supply. IEA said the OPEC+ group is undersupplying the market by 700,000 barrels per day as it sticks to its schedule of monthly supply increases even as shortages of natural gas, LNG and coal boost oil demand

In its Monthly Oil Market report, the IEA said natural gas and coal shortages in Asia and Europe are raising oil demand by up to half a million barrels per day, while OPEC+ adds just 400,000 barrels per day monthly and US producers refrain from new drilling, pushing oil prices to seven-year highs. West Texas Intermediate crude was last seen up 0.91% to US$81.25 per barrel.

“The surge in prices has swept through the entire global energy chain, fueled by robust economic growth as the world emerges from the pandemic. Record coal and gas prices, as well as rolling black-outs, are prompting the power sector and energy-intensive industries to turn to oil to keep the lights on and operations humming. The higher energy prices are also adding to inflationary pressures that, along with power outages, could lead to lower industrial activity and a slowdown in the economic recovery,” the agency noted.

Meanwhile, in what was other welcomed news today, domestic manufacturing data added to evidence that economic activity picked up in the third quarter. Canadian factory sales rose 0.5% in August from July, on higher sales of petroleum and coal, chemicals and primary metals, Statistics Canada said.

US dollar pushed to a 10-day low

As for the US dollar, the DXY index that measures the greenback vs. a number of major rival currencies is down for the second straight day and trading back below 94. US rates are edging lower despite the firm Consumer Price Index print and the FOMC minutes showing imminent tapering. This is priced into the greenback which has suffered at the hands of lower yields and profit-taking as well as rising risk appetite. The DXY was touching a 10-day low on the day while the Aussie, CAD and Kiwi dollars gain in the inflation hedge. 

 

  • GBP/JPY’s rally extends to fresh five-month highs at 155.70.
  • The pound remains bid on BoE hike expectations.
  • GBP/JPY could reach 159.80 – Credit Suisse.

The British pound has appreciated for the sixth consecutive day on Thursday, breaching the 155.00 level to approach three-year highs right above 156.00. The remains bid against an ailing Japanese yen on Thursday, after having gained nearly 4% so far in October.  

BoE rate hike expectations are supporting the GBP rally

The sterling remains trading on a firm tone, with the investors pricing an interest rate hike by the Bank of England early next year. Surging energy prices have pushed yearly inflation to levels almost twice the BoE’s target for price stability in the UK, and some Bank officials are starting to suggest the possibility of accelerating the monetary policy normalization plan.

Furthermore, a somewhat higher appetite for risk on Thursday has weighed safe assets, like the Japanese yen, favoring riskier currencies such as the GBP. The world’s major stock markets are posting substantial advances, with the US indexes trading well above 1% at the time of writing.

The Dow Jones trades 1.49% up, while the S&P and Dow Jones Indexes advance 1.62% and 1.68% respectively with upbeat quarterly results offsetting concerns about inflationary pressures and supply chain bottlenecks thwarting the economic recovery.

GBP/JPY might extend its rally towards 159.80 – Credit Suisse

From a technical point of view, the pair seems ready to extend its rally to levels near 160.00, according to the FX analysis team at Credit Suisse: “With a major base already seen established in February 2021, we look for a break above 156.62 to further reinforce the positive outlook, with resistance seen next at 159.80.”

Technical levels to watch

 

 

  • EUR/USD failure at 1.1600 threatens to push the single currency to new yearly lows.
  • Risk-on market sentiment weighs on safe-haven currencies, like the US dollar.
  • ECB members coincide with inflation upside pressures as “transitory.”
  • Fed’s Bostic: Inflation appears to be the last longer because of supply chains.
  • Fed’s Daly: Bottlenecks are the leading cause of rising prices.

The EUR/USD slumps during the New York session, trading at 1.1588, down 0.04%  at the time of writing. Earlier in the Asian session, the single currency rose to a fresh weekly high at 1.1624, reclaiming the 1.1600 thresholds. However, as European traders got to their desks, the euro slid aggressively, with sellers pushing the pair beneath the 1.1600 figure. 

Risk-on market sentiment has kept safe-haven currencies like the US dollar downward pressured. Riskier currencies like the AUD, the CAD, and the NZD outperform the greenback. Nevertheless, ongoing central bank divergences between the European Central Bank and a Federal Reserve ready to start the bond taper weigh on the shared currency.

During the European session, some ECB members crossed the wires. Klass Knot said that the inflation outlook for the Eurozone is back on track. In the same tone, Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank, said that they continue to view inflation upswing as being largely driver by temporary factors. 

That said, most ECB policymakers seem to adhere to the “transitory” narrative, contrarily to what Federal Reserve members have been vocal about recently.

Across the pond, on Thursday, Atlanta’s Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic said that inflation appears to be the last longing because of supply chain and labor shortages. In the same tone, and at the same time, San Francisco President, Mary Duly, said that bottlenecks are the leading cause of rising prices. She added that inflation would subside as the COVID-19 crisis improved.

US Initial Jobless Claims rose to 293K better than the 319K expected

In the European economic docket, there is nothing to report. Concerning the US, the Initial Jobless Claims rose to 293K better than the 319K foreseen by analysts, delivering positive news regarding the labor market. Further, the US Producer Price Index increased by 8.6% less than the 8.7% estimated, while excluding food and energy, expanded 6.8% lower than the 7.1% expected.

KEY ADDITIONAL LEVELS TO WATCH