• El dólar estadounidense, mixto en todos los ámbitos, encuentra soporte en el repunte de los rendimientos estadounidenses.
  • Reino Unido: El Primer Ministro Johnson cambia a los miembros de su gabinete.
  • El GBP/USD mantiene las ganancias diarias, pero sigue sin poder romper 1.3900.

El GBP/USD tocó un nuevo máximo diario durante la sesión estadounidense en 1.3853 y luego retrocedió hacia 1.3820. Está rondando los 1.3840, en terreno positivo para el día. El cable continúa moviéndose lateralmente, con soporte alrededor de 1.3800 e incapaz de confirmar niveles por encima de 1.3900.

Reorganización de datos y gabinetes

El Primer Ministro del Reino Unido, Boris Johnson, hizo cambios en su gabinete. Liz Truss será la Secretaria de Relaciones Exteriores y Dominic Raab se convertirá en Secretario de Justicia. Robert Buckland, Robert Jenrick y Gavin Williams dejarán la oficina del Gabinete.

Más temprano el miércoles, los datos económicos del Reino Unido mostraron cifras de inflación más altas de lo esperado. En agosto el IPC subió 3.2% (anual). Los números aumentaron la libra solo modestamente.

“El próximo enfoque para la libra esterlina será la publicación de mañana de las ventas minoristas de agosto. Se espera que rebote en un 0.8% después de la caída del -2.4% intermensual registrada en julio. Ese número generó especulaciones de que gran parte de la demanda reprimida relacionada con el bloqueo en el Reino Unido ha seguido su curso. Los datos de mañana probablemente serán clave para establecer ese tono antes de la reunión de política del Banco de Inglaterra del 23 de septiembre”, escribieron analistas de Rabobank.

Niveles técnicos

                                                    

  • Silver is steady seesawing around $23.75, waiting for a catalyst.
  • Mixed market sentiment, but slightly downbeat, triggered by the Chinese economy’s deceleration.
  • XAG/USD daily and hourly charts support a bearish bias in the white metal.

Earlier in the New York session, XAG/USD reached a high of $23.91 but, as the New York stock market opened, the white metal retreated the move trading at $23.79 down a decent 0.27% at the time of writing.

The market sentiment remains mixed but slightly downbeat. During the Asian session, data showed that the Chinese economy keeps slowing down. China’s Retail Sales edged higher by 2.5% versus 7% forecasted by analysts. It was a huge miss caused by lockdown measures implemented in the country amid a Delta variant outbreak. Additionally, major European stock indices finished with losses in line with Asian markets, weighed by Chinese data, while three out of four US stock indexes post gains between 0.37% and 0.40%. 

Technical outlook

Daily chart

XAG/USD is still trading beneath the bottom-trendline of a bearish flag, keeping the downtrend intact. Moreover, the daily moving averages are above the spot price, putting a lid around $24.00. Nevertheless, silver has been trading within the $23.37-96 range in the last three sessions. A daily break below $23.37 will open the door for further losses, towards 2021 low, around $22.10.  

The Relative Strength Index is at 44.03 heading lower, supporting the downtrend.

1-hour chart

Zooming into the 1-hour chart, XAG/USD is trading between the 100 and the 50-simple moving average (SMA), lying at $23.84 and $23.76, respectively. The longer one, the 200-SMA is up at $24.10, confirming the bearish bias. A break below $23.66 could push the prices towards the September 13 lows around $23.37. A sustained break of that support level will pave the way towards August 20 swing lows around $22.87.

On the flip side, a break above the 100-SMA will push the price towards a key resistance area around $24.00 topped by the 200-SMA at $24.10.

The Relative Strength Index is around 46.94 heading lower, supporting the downward bias.

  • USD/JPY remains on track to post losses for second straight day.
  • Recovering US Treasury bond yields helped USD/JPY erase part of its daily losses.
  • Wall Street’s main indexes trade in the positive territory.

Following Tuesday’s decline, the USD/JPY pair stayed under bearish pressure in the first half of the day on Wednesday and dropped to a monthly low of 109.11 before staging a rebound. As of writing, the pair was down 0.25% on the day at 109.40.

10-year US T-bond yield gains traction

Earlier in the day, the broad-based USD weakness and falling US Treasury bond yields caused USD/JPY to continue to push lower. However, the benchmark 10-year US T-bond yield, which lost more than 1% earlier in the day, reversed its direction and was last seen rising 2.5% at 1.316%, helping USD/JPY erase a portion of its daily losses.

Meanwhile, the positive shift witnessed in market sentiment is making it difficult for the greenback to gather strength and capping USD/JPY’s upside. Currently, the S&P 500 Index is up 0.7% on the day and the US Dollar Index is posting modest losses at 92.55.

The data from the US showed on Wednesday that the NY Fed’s Empire State Manufacturing Index improved to 34.3 in September from 18.3 in August.

On the other hand, Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said on Wednesday that they will further relax monetary policy such as by reducing interest rates if necessary. Nevertheless, this comment had little to no impact on the JPY’s performance against its rivals.

There won’t be any high-tier data releases from Japan on Thursday and August Retail Sales data from the US will be looked upon for fresh impetus later in the day.

Technical levels to watch for

 

European Central Bank (ECB) chief economist Philip Lane said on Wednesday that he is happy that the accommodative monetary policy is helping to build core inflation in the euro area, as reported by Reuters.

Lane reiterated that the current policy instruments are working. “It’s not a good idea to identify the monetary policy stance with the volume of asset purchases because the mappings from the volume of asset purchase to the monetary policy stance essentially goes through the yield curve,” he further explained. 

Market reaction

The EUR/USD pair showed no immediate reaction to these remarks and it was last seen posting small daily gains at 1.1812.

US Industrial production rose 0.4% in August showed a report released on Tuesday. A rebound in utilities production offset a drop in mining activity and helped boost the headline figure, explained analysts at Wells Fargo. 

Key Quotes: 

“Industrial production increased just 0.4% in August which was a notch below the half a percent increase that had been expected. This gain, however, was enough to lift total industrial production back above its pre-pandemic, February 2020 level. Last month’s initially reported gain of 0.9% was pared to an increase of 0.8%. Supply chain problems are not improving even though demand in the factory sector remains quite strong.”

“The headline print would have been an even bigger miss had it not been for a 3.3% bounce back in utilities output after that category fell sharply in July. Mining output was the soft spot, falling 0.6% on the month. But manufacturing output was also pretty soft in August with a gain there of only 0.2%, just half the 0.4% that had been expected. That said, the Federal Reserve estimated that Hurricane Ida subtracted 0.2 percentage points from overall manufacturing output during the month.”

“The trends in production reflect what we’ve seen in spending where durable goods outlays have generally outpaced spending on shorter-lived goods primarily consumed in the service sector. Amid the pivot to services, we see scope for nondurables production to eventually outpace durables production. Still, that trend reversal may have to wait until after businesses have rebuilt depleted stockpiles. Capacity utilization for manufacturing increased 0.1 percentage point in August to 76.7%. Capacity utilization rates for all three sectors remained below their long-run averages.”
 

Data released on Tuesday showed inflation rose above expectation in August. Analysts at CIBC, hold the view that the Bank of Canada will stay the course, continuing to suggest that much of the latest rise in inflationary pressures is transitory.

Key Quotes: 

“Canadian inflation climbed even higher-than-expected in August, but that might represent the summit of the mountain. Base effects are set to fade further and the fourth wave will likely create another headwind for services prices this fall and winter. As a result, the Bank of Canada will stay the course, continuing to suggest that much of this latest rise in inflationary pressures is transitory and simply making up for weakness last year.”

“Despite the inflation rate rising to 4.1%, the level of prices is only just barely above what it would have been if prices had run at the Bank of Canada’s 2% target since the pandemic began. That means much of the increases over the past year are just making up for weakness early in the pandemic. With the latest readings still suggesting that much of the recent acceleration is transitory and due to base effects, supply chain shortages and surging reopening demand, central bankers will stick to the script of keeping rates on hold until late next year. Monetary policymakers will be particularly cautious given that the fourth wave is likely to cause disruptions for the economy once again.”
 

  • US Dollar mixed across the board, finds support from rebound in US yields.
  • UK: PM Johnson changes members of his Cabinet.
  • GBP/USD holds onto daily gains, remains unable to break 1.3900.

The GBP/USD printed a fresh daily high during the American session at 1.3853 and then pulled back toward 1.3820. It is hovering around 1.3840, in positive ground for the day. Cable continues to move sideways, with support around 1.3800 and unable to confirm levels above 1.3900.

Data and cabinet reshuffle

UK Primer Minister Boris Johnson made changes to his cabinet. Liz Truss will be the Foreign Secretary, and Dominic Raab will become Justice Secretary. Robert Buckland, Robert Jenrick and Gavin Williams will leave the Cabinet office.

Earlier on Wednesday, economic data from the UK showed higher than expected inflation numbers. In August the CPI rose 3.2% (YoY). The numbers boosted the pound only modestly.

“The next focus for GBP will be tomorrow’s release of August retail sales.  This is expected to bounce by 0.8% m/m after the -2.4% m/m plunge registered in July.  That number prompted speculation that much of the lockdown related pent up demand in the UK has run its course.  Tomorrow’s data will likely be key in setting that tone ahead of the September 23 BoE policy meeting”, wrote analysts at Rabobank.

Technical levels