• La libra continúa entre las monedas más fuertes del mercado.
  • El dólar mixto a la espera de la presentación de Powell.

El par GBP/USD subió hasta 1.4098, llegando al nivel más alto desde 2018. Luego emprendió un retroceso, manteniéndose sobre 1.4050 y cerca de los máximos. La libra se mantiene fuerte, con suba frente a casi todas las monedas.

Los datos de empleo del Reino Unido mostraron cifras mixtas, con la tasa de desempleo en 5.1% y un crecimiento en el empleo por debajo de las expectativas. De todas formas, las cifras no tuvieron un impacto en el mercado. La libra sigue fuerte, anotando nuevos máximos contra el euro y el dólar.

El apoyo sigue estando en la base del proceso de vacunación en el Reino Unido, que se espera que le permita a dicha economía regresar antes que la de los otros países europeos a la normalidad.

El dólar el martes muestra resultados mixtos, operando en sentido lateral. El DXY regresó sobre 90.00, pero con una modesta recuperación. Los rendimientos de los bonos del Tesoro se muestran relativamente estables.

Lo que está ocurriendo con el mercado de bonos será seguramente uno de los temas que le pregunten a Jerome Powell, el presidente de la Reserva Federal cuando exponga en su presentación semestral ante el Congreso para hablar sobre economía y política monetaria. Además de esto, en EE.UU. se publicará el reporte de confianza del consumidor de Conference Board, el índice de la Fed de Richmond y datos e precios de viviendas.

Niveles técnicos

 

EUR/USD has retreated from the highs after US yields resumed their gains. All eyes are now on Jerome Powell, Chair of the Federal Reserve, who testifies before Congress later in the day and may propel the euro higher. Meanwhile, the technical picture looks bullish, FXStreet’s Analyst Yohay Elam briefs. 

Key quotes

“Fed Chair Powell testifies before Congress and markets are eagerly awaiting his comments on the Fed’s bond-buying scheme. Does the bank continue seeing the current increase in yields as a healthy sign of vaccine-led growth down the road? Dismissing these recent moves would hurt stocks, which need low-interest rates to thrive. On the other hand, if Powell says the Fed is ready to push yields lower, concerns of overheating and inflation may cause the bank a new headache.”

“Erring on the side of caution will likely push the greenback lower, allowing EUR/USD to hit new highs. However, even Powell’s power has its limits.”

“Euro/dollar is benefiting from significant upside momentum on the 4-hour chart and trades above the 50, 100 and 200 Simple Moving Averages. Moreover, the Relative Strength Index is below 70, outside overbought conditions.” 

“Resistance awaits at the daily high of 1.2180, followed closely by 1.2190, a peak earlier in the year, and then 1.2220.”

“Support is at the daily low of 1.2140, followed by 1.2110, which is a separator of ranges and also where the 50 and 200 SMAs hit the price.”

 

US equities markets have continued to perform well, fueled by upbeat earnings and vaccination news. However, that’s often when surprises arise. A correction would be welcome at this point, as sentiment and positioning have reached extreme levels, as Mike Wilson, Chief Investment Officer and Chief US Equity Strategist for Morgan Stanley notes.

Key quotes

“Fourth quarter earnings proved to be terrific for most companies. With 419 companies in the S&P 500 reporting so far, earnings per share have come in 18% higher than the consensus estimate. Sales have been just 3% higher on average, suggesting our operating leverage theme is really playing out. Fourth quarter sales actually grew 1% year over year. When combined with a lower unemployment cost and other operating expenses, profit margins have moved to near all-time highs. In short, the recession is over for corporate profits.”

“After a slow start, the vaccination process has picked up nicely. In addition, there is some evidence that the first shot of the vaccine could provide 75% effectiveness against symptoms of any kind. Meanwhile, new cases are falling more rapidly than expected, and several leading health experts are even saying we may achieve herd immunity as early as April.”

“At this point, it seems like nothing can slow this bull market. However, that’s exactly when surprises usually arise. We see two potential risks to be thinking about as we exit February. First, is the risk associated with interest rates rising sharply as bond markets simply catch up to what other asset prices are already reflecting. Second is the risk that some of the positive operating leverage that we’ve been witnessing in company earnings reports starts to go in reverse.”

“With this macro backdrop, we continue to favor areas in the market that are reasonably priced or can benefit from rising rates and inflation. Areas like banks, materials and energy. We also favor reopening beneficiaries in the consumer and business services sectors, as markets begin to digest a faster return to normal activities.”

 

Trading gold to the downside, stochastics on XAU/USD overbought [Video]

Yesterday we looked at gold from the fundamental standpoint and the market still sees downward pressure even though price has risen above $1800. From the technical view, we see price at the upper trend line in this bearish run so we will wait for confirmation before going short. Read more…

 

Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD’s recovery appears limited ahead of Powell

The retreat in the US Treasury yields from yearly tops and rising inflation expectations worldwide render supportive for the inflation-hedge gold (XAU/USD). Although markets weigh in the prospects of passage of US President Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion, which could limit the advance in the metal. Also, the XAU bulls could turn cautious ahead of the Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony on the Semi-annual Monetary Policy Report before the Senate Banking Committee due later this Tuesday.

Powell is likely to reiterate his dovish stance, exerting additional downside pressure on the US dollar. Meanwhile, the market optimism-driven by encouraging vaccine developments could likely bode ill for the safe-haven gold. Read more…

Gold

Gold Futures: Recovery poised to advance further

Open interest in god futures markets increased by around 1.9K contracts and reversed six consecutive daily pullbacks on Monday, according to flash data from CME Group. In the other direction, volume resumed the downtrend and shrunk by around 32.5K contracts.

Prices of the ounce troy of gold met decent support in the $1,760 region so far. The rebound from that level managed to regain the key $1,800 mark per ounce and now looks to re-visit recent tops in the $1,860 zone on the back of Monday’s rising open interest. Read more…

Gold

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said on Tuesday that he is very optimistic that England will fully re-open on June 21 but added that it’s not a guarantee. 

Johnson further noted that there are deep and complex issues to explore around the vaccine certification while saying that it’s can’t be discriminatory. “British Cabinet Minister Michael Gove will review the use of vaccine certification,” the PM added. 

Market reaction

The UK’s FTSE 100 Index showed no immediate reaction to these remarks and was last seen losing 0.45% on a daily basis at 6,582.

The data from the UK showed on Tuesday that the Confederation of British Industry’s (CBI) Retail Sales Balance in February rose to -45 from -50 in January. This reading came in worse than the market expectation of -38.

Commenting on the data, “with lockdown measures still in place, trading conditions remain extremely difficult for retailers,” said Ben Jones, principal economist at the CBI, as reported by Reuters. “Record growth in internet shopping suggests that retailers’ investments in on-line platforms and click-and-collect services may be paying off, but the re-opening of the sector can’t come soon enough to protect jobs and breathe life back into the sector.”

Market reaction

The GBP/USD pair edged slightly lower after this report and was last seen gaining 0.13% on the day at 1.4080.

  • El NZD/USD está moviéndose dentro de un rango relativamente estrecho el martes.
  • El índice del dólar estadounidense DXY registra ganancias diarias modestas por encima de 90.00.
  • Los inversores esperan el testimonio del presidente del FOMC, Jerome Powell, a las 15:00 GMT.

El par NZD/USD cerró por tercer día consecutivo en positivo y tocó su nivel más alto desde abril de 2018 en 0.7345 el lunes. Con la acción del precio volviéndose moderada el martes, el par parece haber entrado en una fase de consolidación. En el momento de escribir, el par pierde un 0.08% en el día en 0.7325.

La venta del USD se toma un descanso antes del testimonio de Powell

La presión de venta generalizada alrededor del dólar estadounidense ha dado un impulso al NZD/USD al comienzo de la semana. El índice del dólar estadounidense DXY ha caído por debajo del nivel de 90.00 por primera vez en más de un mes durante la sesión asiática del martes, pero ha registrado un modesto repunte. Por el momento, el índice DXY sube un 0.13% en 90.13.

Más tarde en el día, la publicación del índice de confianza del consumidor del Conference Board y el índice manufacturero del Banco de la Reserva Federal de Richmond centrará la atención de los inversores para un nuevo impulso.

Más importante aún, los participantes del mercado seguirán de cerca el testimonio semestral del presidente del FOMC, Jerome Powell, ante el Comité Bancario del Senado.

Los comentarios de Powell sobre el último repunte observado en los rendimientos de los bonos del Tesoro de EE.UU. y las preocupaciones sobre un aumento descontrolado de la inflación podrían aumentar la volatilidad en la segunda mitad del día. Si Powell minimiza las preocupaciones sobre la inflación y reafirma la postura moderada de la Fed, el dólar podría tener dificultades para encontrar demanda y permitir que el NZD/USD recupere su tracción.

NZD/USD niveles técnicos

 

The USD/JPY pair is recovering from an intraday low of 104.92, trading around 105.30. USD/JPY has limited bullish potential and needs to advance beyond 105.60 to gain upside traction, Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet, reports.

Key quotes

“In the US, the focus will be on the Federal Reserve chief Jerome Powell, who will testify before Congress for the first time in the Biden era. The Semiannual Monetary Policy Report may include hints on the future of QE. Powell’s prepared remarks will be released ahead of his speech.”

“USD/JPY has a limited bullish scope in the near-term. The advance could gather momentum if the pair surpasses the 105.60 level.”

 

  • El AUD/USD tiene dificultades para capitalizar el repunte inicial a nuevos máximos de tres años.
  • Las condiciones de sobrecompra provocan una toma de ganancias en medio de un modesto repunte del USD.
  • Una debilidad por debajo del mínimo del día anterior anularía cualquier perspectiva positiva.

El par AUD/USD ha sido testigo de un modesto retroceso desde los máximos de tres años y ha caído por debajo del nivel redondo de 0.7900 durante la primera mitad de la sesión europea del martes.

Un cambio en el sentimiento de riesgo global ha proporcionado un modesto impulso al dólar estadounidense de refugio seguro y ha alejado los flujos monetarios del dólar australiano de mayor riesgo percibido. Esto, junto con las condiciones de sobrecompra en los gráficos a corto plazo, han provocado una cierta toma de ganancias en torno al par AUD/USD.

Por ahora, el par parece haber detenido tres días consecutivos de ganancias y ha caído al soporte marcado por el 23.6% de retroceso de Fibonacci del reciente movimiento positivo de 0.7724-0.7936. Una caída posterior por debajo del área mencionada podría provocar algunas ventas técnicas.

El par AUD/USD podría acelerar la caída correctiva hacia los mínimos del día anterior, alrededor de la región de 0.7855. Esto coincide con el 38.2% de retroceso de Fibonacci. En caso de romperse se manera decisiva anulará cualquier sesgo positivo y allanará el camino para una nueva caída correctiva a corto plazo.

El movimiento descendente prepararía el escenario para una caída hacia la prueba del 61.8% de Fibonacci, alrededor del nivel redondo de 0.7800. Esta región es seguida de cerca por el soporte en la zona horizontal de 0.7785-80 antes de que el par AUD/USD finalmente caiga al soporte de 0.7750-45.

Por otro lado, la región de 0.7935 (máximos de tres años) ahora se convierte en una fuerte resistencia inmediata. Los alcistas podrían esperar algunas compras de continuación antes de posicionarse para cualquier movimiento alcista adicional hacia la recuperación del nivel psicológico clave de 0.8000.

AUD/USD gráfico de 4 horas

AUDUSD

AUD/USD niveles técnicos

 

  • NZD/USD is fluctuating in a relatively tight range on Tuesday.
  • US Dollar Index is posting modest daily gains above 90.00.
  • Investors await FOMC Chairman Jerome Powell’s testimony at 1500 GMT.

The NZD/USD pair closed the third straight day in the positive territory and touched its highest level since April 2018 at 0.7345 on Monday. With the trading action turning subdued on Tuesday, the pair seems to have gone into a consolidation phase and was last seen losing 0.11% on the day at 0.7320.

USD selloff takes a break ahead of Powell’s testimony

The broad-based selling pressure surrounding the greenback provided a boost to NZD/USD at the start of the week. The US Dollar Index (DXY) dropped below 90.00 for the first time in more than a month during the Asian trading hours on Tuesday but staged a modest rebound. At the moment, the DXY is up 0.13% at 90.13.

Later in the day, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index and the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond’s Manufacturing Index will be looked upon for fresh impetus.

More importantly, FOMC Chairman Jerome Powell’s semi-annual testimony before the Senate Banking Committee will be watched closely by market participants.

Powell’s comments on the latest upsurge witnessed in US Treasury bond yields and concerns over an uncontrolled increase in inflation could ramp up the volatility in the second half of the day. If Powell downplays inflation worries and reaffirms the Fed’s dovish stance, the greenback could have a tough time finding demand and allow NZD/USD to regain its traction.

Technical levels to watch for