• El oro tiene el mejor año desde 2010, subiendo 350$ o un 22%.
  • El XAU/USD continúa probando el nivel 1.900$, una resistencia crítica a corto plazo.

El oro está a punto de terminar el año con un sesgo alcista, probando la barrera de los 1.900$, respaldado por una caída del dólar estadounidense. Ganó un 22% durante el año y alcanzó un récord de 2.075$ en agosto. Luego retrocedió, alcanzando niveles por debajo de 1.800$.

El repunte de XAU/USD desde el mínimo de noviembre cerca de 1.760$ enfrenta una fuerte resistencia en 1.900$. Una ruptura por encima podría abrir las puertas a más ganancias. El gráfico diario apunta al alza en el oro, pero aunque por debajo de 1.900$, las ganancias se consideran limitadas. Una caída por debajo de 1.875$ dólares debilitaría las perspectivas.

En diciembre, el metal subió más del 6% luego de caer durante los cuatro meses anteriores en una corrección de niveles récord. Reanudó el alza y consolidó las ganancias de 2020. Es el mejor año para el oro desde 2010.

Otros metales también han tenido un gran año, con la plata ganando más del 45%, el paladio en un 20% y el platino en un 11%.

Niveles técnicos

               

  • Gold have the best year since 2010, rising $350 or 22%.
  • XAU/USD continues to test the $1900 area, a critical short-term resistance.

Gold is about to end the year with a bullish bias, testing the $1900 barrier, supported by a US dollar decline. It gained 22% over the year and hit a record high at $2075 back in August. It then pulled back, hitting levels under $1800.

The rally of XAU/USD from the November low near $1760 faces a strong resistance at $1900. A break above could open the doors to more gain. The daily chart points to the upside in gold, but while below $1900, gains are seen as limited. A slide under $1875 would weaken the outlook.

In December, the metal rose more than 6% after falling during the previous four months on a correction from record-high levels. It resumed the upside and consolidated 2020 gains. It is the best year for gold since 2010.

Other metals also have a great year, with silver gaining more than 45%, Palladium by 20%, and Platinum by 11%.

Technical levels

 

  • El EUR/USD registra pérdidas diarias modestas el jueves.
  • La obtención de beneficios antes de las vacaciones de Año Nuevo parece estar pesando sobre el EUR.

El EUR/USD ha subido más del 2% por segundo mes consecutivo en diciembre.
Después de cerrar los cuatro días de negociación anteriores en territorio positivo, el par EUR/USD bajó ligeramente el último día de 2020 y se vio por última vez perdiendo un 0.26% en el día en 1.2265. En noviembre, el par ganó más del 2% y avanza un 2.8% en diciembre. Para el año, el EUR/USD ha subido un 9.3%.

Más temprano en el día, los datos de los EE.UU. mostraron que las solicitudes iniciales de desempleo cayeron en 19.000 a 787.000 en la semana que terminó el 26 de diciembre y fueron mucho mejores que las expectativas del mercado de 833.000. Sin embargo, la reacción del mercado a este informe fue en gran medida silenciosa.

El índice del dólar estadounidense, que rastrea el desempeño del dólar frente a una canasta de seis monedas principales, prácticamente no ha cambiado en el día en 89.67.

“Los alcistas se desanimarán si el par pierde el umbral de 1.2000, pero no se rendirán a menos que el par caiga por debajo de 1.1600 en el primer trimestre del año, ya que volverá a niveles por debajo de la línea de tendencia a largo plazo”, dice FXStreet. Analista jefe Valeria Bednarik. “En tal caso, entrarán en juego mínimos más bajos, con el par listo para extender su declive hacia 1.0351, el mínimo de varias décadas registrado en diciembre de 2016”.

Niveles técnicos

               

  • GBP/USD is finishing the year on the front foot amid a weaker USD.
  • Sterling traders continue to mull the themes of UK lockdowns, vaccination and continued Brexit negotiations into 2021.

GBP/USD is finishing the year on the front foot, with the pair crossing above the 1.3650 mark for the first time since May 2018 and printing highs during the European morning session in the 1.3680s. No particular news or theme is behind the upside, as sterling traders continue to juggle the themes of Covid-19 spread and lockdowns (will the UK go into national lockdown in January), vaccine distribution (how quickly can the UK achieve herd immunity) and Brexit (though a bare-bones deal has been agree and no deal avoided, what next for the UK’s service sector, for which nothing has yet been agreed).

Month, quarter and year-end portfolio flows appear to again be distorting the price action on the final trading day of the year; amid a lack of any catalysts, EUR is the G10’s underperforming currency, which is holding the Dollar Index flat (EUR/USD makes up 50% of the basket of USD major exchange rates that make up the index), though the USD is underperforming versus the majority of its major counterparts. GBP is one beneficiary of the weaker US dollar. Over the coming hours, trading conditions are likely to significantly die down given market participants leaving early for New Year’s Eve celebrations.

Sterling’s 2020…

It was a tumultuous year for pound sterling. After a strong finish to the year in 2019 on the back of a decisive Conservative general election victory that handed the party a 364 seat majority in Parliament (and avoided the market’s worst-case scenario of a Jeremy Corbyn led Labour Party victory), things quickly went south as the Covid-19 epidemic went global. By mid-March, GBP/USD has slumped more than 12% to more than multi-decade lows beneath 1.1500 and EUR/GBP had appreciated more than 10% to above 0.9400.

By the start of Q2 2020, GBP was well off these extreme levels, as the swift response from global fiscal and monetary authorities to the pandemic breathed life back into the more risk-sensitive such as GBP, AUD, NZD, CAD, the Scandis and Emerging Market FX. The subsequent wave of USD weakness that has carried through into the end of the year (driven the USD bearish combination of extraordinarily dovish Fed action, Joe Biden’s election victory and vaccine optimism) has lifted GBP/USD to the 1.3600 and into positive territory on the year. The pair looks to close out the year with gains of slightly more than 4.0%.

But Sterling has struggled to regain its poise versus the euro; EUR/GBP looks set to close out the year with gains of around 5.5% and EUR/GBP trading close to the 0.9000 level. Though the EU and UK managed to agree a bare-bones trade deal at the last minute and in doing so avoided the disastrous no-deal outcome, price action (i.e. the fact that EUR/GB remains elevated) suggests that markets are not overly impressed with the deal, that does not even yet cover access of the UK’s service sector (which accounts for 80% of GDP) to the EU market. Perhaps markets are of the view that the deal undermines the UK’s relatively economic standing versus the Eurozone.

The UK’s much faster rollout of Covid-19 vaccines will test this narrative; if the UK achieves herd immunity well ahead of the EU (perhaps as early as Q2 2020), the UK could be in for a period of relative outperformance versus the EU that might be bearish for EUR/GBP. It must not be forgotten, however, that another reason for EUR/GBP appreciation in 2020 was to do with the removal of EU breakup risk premia that was priced out when the bloc agreed on its next-generation Recovery Fund that would be funded by jointly issued EU debt. As these funds get dished out in 2021, though this might not immediately spur economic activity, it might spur continued improvements in confidence in the EU project’s long-term viability.

 

  • EUR/USD is posting modest daily losses on Thursday.
  • Profit-taking ahead of the New Year holiday seems to be weighing on the EUR.
  • EUR/USD is up more than 2% for the second straight month in December.

After closing the previous four trading days in the positive territory, the EUR/USD pair edged slightly lower on the last day of 2020 and was last seen losing 0.26% on the day at 1.2265. In November, the pair gained more than 2% and is advancing 2.8% in December. For the year, EUR/USD is up 9.3%.

Earlier in the day, the data from the US showed that Initial Jobless Claims fell by 19,000 to 787,000 in the week ending December 26 and came in much better than the market expectation of 833,000. Nevertheless, the market reaction to this report was largely muted.

The US Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback’s performance against a basket of six major currencies, is virtually unchanged on the day at 89.67.

EUR/USD 2021 outlook

EUR/USD Price Forecast 2021: Euro-dollar long-term bullish breakout points to 1.2750.

“Bulls will get discouraged if the pair loses the 1.2000 threshold, but won’t give up unless the pair falls below 1.1600 in the first quarter of the year, as it will return to levels below the long-term trend line,” says FXStreet Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik. “In such a case, lower lows will come into play, with the pair poised to extend its decline towards 1.0351, the multi-decade low posted in December 2016.”

Technical levels to watch for

 

  • Euro recorta ganancias semanales frente al yen el jueves.
  • EUR/JPY va camino a cerrar el año con una suba del 3.65%

El EUR/JPY  está cayendo el jueves tras subir en los tres días previos y llegar  máximos en un año y medio en 127.22. En la sesión americana la cotización está operando en 126.33, el nivel más bajo desde el lunes.

La presión bajista se intensificó ante una corrección luego de que el euro no consiguiera sostenerse por encima de 127.00. El descenso tomó ritmo con la caída por debajo de 126.50, que era un soporte de corto plazo relevante.

La última jornada del 2020 está teniendo recorridos en rangos, las acciones operando en terreno mixto en Wall Street, y el euro con cierta debilidad. Esto último sumado al modesto descenso del USD/JPY, presionan a la baja al EUR/JPY.

Con respecto a un año atrás, el EUR/JPY sube 3.65%. Está terminando cerca de máximos en casi dos años luego de haber operado en marzo y abril en mínimos desde 2016. La recuperación de las bolsas fue el factor clave detrás del gran rebote del euro contra el yen.

La perspectiva técnica sigue a favor del euro, pero deberá de superar pronto y afirmarse sobre 127.00/20 para habilitar más subas, de lo contrario sería de esperar una corrección bajista.

Niveles técnicos

 

  • USD/CHF drifts into negative territory for the fourth consecutive session on Thursday.
  • A softer tone around the USD was seen as a key factor exerting pressure on the pair.
  • Better-than-expected US jobless claims data failed to provide any respite to the USD.

The USD/CHF pair refreshed multi-year lows during the early North American session, with bears now looking to extend the downward trajectory further below the 0.8800 mark.

The pair failed to capitalize on its intraday uptick, instead met with some fresh supply near the 0.8825 region and drifted into the negative territory for the fourth consecutive session on Thursday. The prevalent bearish sentiment surrounding the US dollar was seen as one of the key factors that capped the early attempted recovery move.

Investors remain convinced about the likelihood of more US financial aid package. This, along with expectations that the Fed will keep interest rates lower for a longer period, continued weighing on the buck. In fact, the USD Index fell to its lowest level since April 2018 and failed to gain any respite from upbeat Initial Jobless Claims data.

According to the US Department of Labor (DOL), the number of Americans filing for unemployment-related benefits fell to 787K during the week ending December 26. This was well below the 833K expected and the last week’s upwardly revised reading of 806K (803K reported previously), albeit did little to impress the USD bulls.

Meanwhile, indications of a subdued opening in the US equity markets did little to influence the Swiss franc’s safe-haven demand or provide any meaningful impetus. Nevertheless, the USD/CHF pair remains on track to post its lowest monthly close since April 2014 and end the year on a downbeat note, recording around 9% fall in 2020.

Technical levels to watch

 

  • Spot silver prices are off highs set during Asia Pacific trade and thus trade lower on the day.
  • The technical picture looks bullish, however, though further gains are likely to wait until January.
  • Spot silver was the best performing precious metal in 2020 after years of underperformance.

Spot silver (XAG/USD) prices broke to the upside of a short-term bull flag and longer-term pennant structure flagged in an article on Wednesday, with prices rallying as high as $26.70 in early Thursday Asia session trade before sliding back to current levels around $26.50. With the metal off its Asia Pacific highs, it currently trades with losses on the day of more than 1% or around 30 cents. However, note that prices found support at $26.30 upon the retest of the previously broken above the short-term bull flag and longer-term pennant, implying that further upside from current levels is likely.

However further upside might have to wait until January; markets have been incredibly quiet on the final trading day of the year, with much of Europe shut for Christmas Eve holidays and many market participants on both sides of the Atlantic away on vacation anyway. Year-end portfolio rebalancing flows have been distorting trade this week and have generally worked against the favour of the US dollar (and in favour of precious metals such as gold and silver) and there could be some fireworks at the final 4pm London Fix of the year (when global financial institutions will take the average over exchange rates over a two-minute window in order to value their international portfolios, hence why the time period can see some manipulation).

2020: Silver’s year…

Spot silver was the best performing of the four major precious metals and looks set to finish the year with gains of around 56.5%, significantly outstripping spot palladium’s gains of just over 30%, spot gold’s gains of just under 30% and spot platinum’s gains of around 19.5%. An unprecedented expansion of the money supply by major central banks across the globe (most notably, the Fed) amid the Covid-19 crisis was the main factor behind the impressive gains seen across precious metals markets. In terms of the reason behind silver’s outperformance, it seems as though some catch up following years of underperformance was at play.

At the start of the year, spot silver prices were over 60% down from their all-time highs set back in 2011. Meanwhile, spot gold was around 28% below its all-time highs set back in 2011. Of course, spot gold went on the smash through its 2011 highs and cross above the $2000 mark for the first time by Q3 2020. Whether spot silver can match this feet in 2021 seems unlikely, given it would need to appreciate more than 80% from current levels in the $26.00s to break above all-time highs close to $48.00. So while 2021 might not see new all-time highs for silver, if precious metals continue to do well, there is every chance that XAG/USD continues to be the best performer out of the bunch as it continues to unwind that prolonged period of underperformance seen throughout the 2010s.

XAG/USD four hour chart