• Libra entre los mejores en Europa, en un día tranquilo para los mercados
  • La libra permanece respaldado por la media móvil de 20 días.

El GBP/USD está subiendo el martes después de haber caído durante los tres días de negociación anteriores. Durante la sesión estadounidense, publicó un nuevo máximo diario en 1.3078 y luego retrocedió modestamente, manteniéndose por encima de 1.3060.

El dólar estadounidense está registrando pérdidas modestas en todos los ámbitos afectados por una caída en los rendimientos estadounidenses y no puede beneficiarse de datos económicos estadounidenses mejores de lo esperado. En Wall Street, las acciones son mixtas. El resurgimiento de los casos de COVID-19 está creando preocupaciones entre los participantes del mercado.

Sin titulares sobre el Brexit, la libra se comportó mejor en Europa. La moneda sigue siendo impulsada por especulaciones sobre tipos negativos del Banco de Inglaterra, casos de COVID-19 y Brexit. “Estamos cada vez más seguros de que el aumento de la libra derivado de la confirmación de un acuerdo del Brexit probablemente sea modesto. Ayer fue un buen ejemplo de algunas buenas noticias que no lograron dar mucho impulso a la GBP. La decisión de Michel Barnier de permanecer en negociaciones en Londres hasta mañana fue vista como una señal positiva por el gobierno del Reino Unido, pero no logró registrarse en los mercados de divisas ”, explicaron los analistas de MUFG Bank.

Niveles para mirar

La corrección desde niveles cercanos a 1.3200 del GBP/USD encontró soporte por encima del promedio móvil de 20 días que se ubica en 1.2980. Un cierre diario claramente por debajo sugeriría más pérdidas en el futuro con el próximo fuerte soporte visto en 1.2860 seguido por el mínimo de octubre en 1.2815.

Por el lado positivo, 1.3080 es nuevamente un nivel de resistencia a considerar, seguido por la fuerte barrera de 1.3150; un cierre por encima apuntaría a más fuerza por venir para la libra.

Niveles técnicos 

                                        

  • AUD/USD comenzó a subir en la sesión americana.
  • El índice del dólar estadounidense extendió su caída diaria hacia 92.80.
  • La confianza del consumidor en los EE.UU. se debilitó modestamente en octubre.

El par AUD/USD pasó la primera mitad del día fluctuando en territorio positivo cerca de 0.7130 y comenzó a subir en la última hora con el dólar teniendo dificultades para encontrar demanda. Al momento de escribir, el par subió un 0.28% en el día a 0.7142.

La debilidad generalizada del USD durante la sesión estadounidense parece estar dando un impulso al AUD/USD. Después de comenzar el día con pocos cambios, los principales índices de Wall Street comenzaron a subir para señalar un cambio positivo en la confianza del mercado. Por el momento, los índices Nasdaq Composite y S&P 500 han subido un 0.95% y un 0.2%, respectivamente, mientras que el índice del dólar estadounidense está perdiendo un 0.3% a 92.79.

Mientras tanto, los datos de EE.UU. mostraron que el índice de confianza del consumidor de Conference Board se redujo a 100,9 en octubre desde 101.3 en septiembre. Como nota positiva, el índice de fabricación de la Fed de Richmond mejoró de 21 a 29 en octubre y los pedidos de bienes duraderos aumentaron un 1.9% en septiembre.

El enfoque cambia a las cifras de inflación de Australia

Más temprano en el día, el vicegobernador del Banco de la Reserva de Australia (RBA), Guy Debelle, se abstuvo de comentar sobre la posibilidad de medidas de relajación adicionales en la próxima reunión del RBA. Sin embargo, Debelle señaló que es probable que el impacto negativo del brote de coronavirus en Victoria sea menor de lo que se temía.

El miércoles, los participantes del mercado seguirán de cerca el informe de inflación de Australia. Con una vista previa de estos datos, “el índice de precios al consumidor medio recortado (IPC) del RBA se espera en un 0.3% intertrimestral desde un -0.1% y un 1.1% interanual desde un 1.2% en el segundo trimestre”, señaló la analista jefe de FXStreet, Valeria Bednarik. “Si las cifras no cumplen con las expectativas del mercado, se podría dar por sentado un recorte de la tasa de efectivo al 0.1% para la próxima reunión, el 4 de noviembre, con el AUD/USD probablemente cayendo hacia 0.7000”.

Niveles técnicos

                                                              

An indicator from the Conference Board showed that consumer confidence declined in October. According to analysts at Wells Fargo is could be because of rising coronavirus cases and lost momentum in the labor market.

Key Quotes: 

“Consumer confidence fell less than half a point to 100.9 in October from a downwardly revised level of 101.3 the month prior. Rising case counts and lost momentum in the labor market could be headwinds in months ahead.”

“While COVID was the catalyst for the collapse in confidence earlier this year, it is not clear that it remains the key driver in shaping consumer confidence now.”

“The share of those describing jobs as “hard to get” edged slightly lower to 19.9 from 20.3, though the jobless rate remains high. After a sharp rebound initially, the recent loss of momentum in the labor market prevents a more robust confidence surge.”

  • Gold bounces from $1,900 support area and returns to $1,910.
  • XAU/USD appreciates moderately as risk aversion eases.

Gold futures have found support right below the $1,900 area earlier today before inching up to $1,910, turning positive on daily charts. The precious metal lost ground, with the US dollar building up during the European session on Tuesday, to appreciate during the North American session with market sentiment improving moderately.

XAU/USD remains neutral around $1,900

From a wider perspective, bullion prices remain moving directionless within previous ranges, fluctuating both sides of the $1,900 level, with upside attempts capped around $1,910.

Investor’s concerns about the consequences of the second COVID-19 wave, with infections soaring in the US and in the major European economies, have crushed appetite for risk, boosting demand for the US dollar and weighing on the dollar-denominated gold.

Beyond that, renewed US-China tensions on the back of a potential sale of US missiles to Taiwan and the uncertainty about the upcoming presidential elections in the US have spooked traders away from risky assets.

The market mood seems to have improved somewhat during the US session, with US Durable Goods Orders September and Housing Prices increasing beyond expectations. Equity markets have experienced a moderate recovery and the US dollar has trimmed gains, which has offered some support for the yellow metal.

Technical levels to watch

 

 

  • La plata está registrando ganancias modestas después de cerrar en rojo durante tres días.
  • El precio podría tener dificultades para superar el obstáculo de $25.50 en el corto plazo.

Después de cerrar los tres días de negociación anteriores en territorio negativo, el par XAG/USD experimentó un rebote el martes y se vio por última vez ganando un 0.71% en el día a $24.45.

En ausencia de impulsores fundamentales significativos, este movimiento parece ser producto de la debilidad generalizada del USD y el panorama técnico permanece neutral a corto plazo. El índice de fuerza relativa (RSI) en el gráfico diario del XAG/USD se mantiene relativamente plano cerca de 50, lo que confirma la indecisión del par.

En el lado negativo, la SMA de 20 días parece haber formado un soporte para XAG/USD en $24.25. Con un cierre diario por debajo de ese nivel, el par podría extender su caída hacia la SMA de 100 días en $23.35 antes de $23 (nivel psicológico/38.2% del retroceso Fibonacci de la tendencia alcista de marzo a agosto).

Las resistencias, por otro lado, se alinean en $25 (nivel psicológico) y $25.50 (SMA de 50 días/23.6% de retroceso Fibonacci). A menos que el XAG/USD realice un cierre diario por encima de este último, los alcistas podrían tener dificultades para tomar el control del precio.

Gráfico diario 

Niveles técnicos adicionales

                                        

  • S&P 500 Index posts modest daily gains on Tuesday.
  • Franklin Resources Inc stocks fall sharply on disappointing earnings figures.
  • F5 Networks Inc shares post impressive gains on price target hikes.

The S&P 500 Index (SPX) opened little changed on Tuesday and seems to be having a difficult time making a decisive move in either direction. As of writing, the SPX was up 0.12% on a daily basis at 3,404.

S&P 500 top movers

Franklin Resources Inc (BEN: NYSE) reported quarterly adjusted earnings of 56 cents per share for the quarter ended in September. With this reading missing the market estimate of 69 cents per share, the company’s shares suffer heavy losses on Tuesday. At the moment, BEN is trading at $20.14, losing 11.8% on a daily basis. 

DexCom Inc (DXCM: NASDAQ), Eli Lilly and Co (LLY: NYSE) and Roper Technologies Inc (ROP: NYSE) shares are among other biggest daily percentage decliners, losing 8.9%, 6.1% and 6.2%, respectively. 

On the other hand, F5 Networks Inc (FFIV: NASDAQ) reported better-than-expected quarterly sales and noted that profit in the current quarter was expected to be above estimates on stronger software subscriptions. Following these developments, BofA Global Research, Credit Suisse and Cowen and Company hike their price targets for FFIV. As of writing, FFIV was up 8.66% on the day at $136.44.

  • EUR/USD recovery attempt loses steam below 1.1840.
  • The euro trims losses with USD pulling back as risk aversion eases.
  • EUR/USD: remains neutral on the short-term while below 1.1870.

The euro trimmed losses on the early US session on Tuesday, after trading lower in Europe, dropping to session lows at 1.1795.  The pair, however, seems unable to extend recover beyond 1.1840.

Concerns about the COVID-19 spread in Europe hurt the euro

The common currency appreciates about 0.2% on the day, regaining approximately half of the ground lost on Monday. The risk-averse sentiment seen at the weekly opening was reflected in sharp declines in equity markets and a strong US dollar.

EUR/USD retreated again on the European session on Tuesday, with the investors’ still wary that the surging numbers of coronavirus infections in Europe might derail the embryonic economic recovery. Beyond that, the uncertainty about the outcome of the US presidential elections has favoured safe assets further, in detriment of the euro.

The market sentiment seems to have brightened somewhat during the North American session with US macroeconomic data contributing to ease fears. Better than expected US durable goods orders and housing prices have brightened the mood, sending the safe-haven USD lower, which has helped the euro to bounce up.

EUR/USD: needs to break above 1.1870 to gain momentum

On the technical level, the euro-dollar remains neutral on the short-term, according to Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet: “The short-term picture is neutral, according to the 4-hour chart, as the EUR/USD pair remains unable to surpass a mildly bearish 20 SMA, now struggling around it. The longer moving averages remain below the current level, with limited directional strength. Technical indicators, in the meantime, are stuck to their midlines.”

Technical levels to watch

 

 

  • USD/CAD is finding support at an hourly trendline while the daily structure also holds up the bears.
  • The US election, BoC, COVID and the commodities markets are all factors to consider.

USD/CAD is currently trading at 1.3146, down 0.49% as it tests trend-line support with risk appetite returning.

On Monday, the currency touched its weakest intraday level since Oct. 16 at 1.3225.

However, on Tuesday, the Canadian dollar has been travelling north between a low of 1.3145 USD/CAD from a high of 1.3212. 

The commodities complex has bounced back to life as stocks and the oil prices rose. Canada runs a current account deficit and is a major producer of commodities, including oil, so the loonie tends to be sensitive to investor risk appetite.

The CRB index is trading over 1% higher and WTI is strongly up by over 2% and that is despite the fact that companies have shut down some US Gulf of Mexico oil output due to a hurricane as well as the rising Libyan supply.

Dr copper is lagging, however, with CFD’s on the industrial metal barely off the lows from the start of the week. 

Nonetheless, there is an improvement in risk appetite as the second wave COVID-19 news sinks in and is brushed off on Wall Street, at least. 

Markets are becoming more convinced a blue wave is happening, which is supportive for stocks and for the fight against COVID.

US elections are the main focus

In the FX space, investors may be reluctant to build positions before the US presidential election on Nov. 3rd.

Moreover, for CAD, we have the Bank of Canada which is due to make an interest rate decision and update its economic outlook on Wednesday.

Markets are expecting that the central bank will leave rates at a record low of 0.25% until its 2% inflation target is achieved sustainably.

The BoC has already been vocal and said that it does not expect the target to be met for at least two years.

The projections in the Monetary Policy Report will likely drive most of the market reaction. However, the probabilities of further stimulus by the BoC being rather low, so CAD volatility is unlikely. 

Canada’s August Gross Domestic Product numbers will also be out this week, on Friday.

”We look for GDP growth to slow to 0.8% MoM as the economic recovery stagnates in some sectors, leaving output 5% below pre-COVID levels,” analysts at TD Securities explained. 

”Monthly activity data has shown further deceleration in August but construction/real estate will provide a key source of strength.

USD/CAD levels

We may continue to see a range-bound situation between 1.31/1.32 level in the pair in the run-up to the US elections.

The daily chart above shows that there is strong weekly monthly support below the correct range.

On the upside, there are prospects of a break higher if the current resistance area is broken.

 

Data released on Tuesday showed Durable Goods Orders rose 1.9% in September surpassing expectations. Although aircraft orders lifted the headline figure, underlying details were strong as well with core orders up more than expected, mentioned analysts at Wells Fargo. 

Key Quotes: 

“Durable goods orders rose 1.9% in September, handily exceeding the 0.5% consensus estimate. Core orders, that exclude volatile components like aircraft and defense spending, also rose 1.0%.”

“Core capital goods shipments rose less than expected in September thus ending the third quarter on a soft note; that bodes poorly for Q4 equipment spending. The solid core orders numbers suggest that the softness in shipments may be short-lived.”

“Investment plans are on the upswing and there may arguably be some pent-up demand for capex since equipment spending peaked a full year before the pandemic.”

  • Pound among top performers in Europe, on a quiet day for markets
  • Cable remains supported by the 20-day moving average.

The GBP/USD is rising on Tuesday after falling during the previous three trading days. During the American session, it printed a fresh daily high at 1.3078 and then pulled back modestly, holding above 1.3060.

The US dollar is posting modest losses across the board affected by a decline in US yields and unable to benefit from better-than-expect US economic data. In Wall Street stocks are mixed. The resurgence in COVID-19 cases is creating concerns among market participants.

With no Brexit headlines, the pound outperformed in Europe. The currency continues to be driven by negative rates speculations from the Bank of England, COVID-19 cases and Brexit. “We are becoming increasingly confident that the lift the pound would derive from a Brexit deal being confirmed is likely to be modest. Yesterday was a good example of some good news failing to provide much lift at all for GBP. The decision of Michel Barnier to remain in negotiations in London through tomorrow was viewed as a positive sign by the UK government yet it failed to register in the FX markets”, explained MUFG Bank analysts.

Levels to watch

The correction from levels near 1.3200 in GBP/USD found support above the 20-day moving average that stands at 1.2980. A daily close clearly below would suggest more losses ahead with the next strong support seen at 1.2860 followed by the October low at 1.2815.

On the upside, 1.3080 is again a resistance level to consider, followed by the strong barrier of 1.3150; a close above would point to more strength ahead for the pound.