Day: 16th September 2020

16 Sep 2020

Discurso de Powell: Tomará algún tiempo alcanzar la meta de inflación del 2%

Tras la decisión del Comité Federal de Mercado Abierto (FOMC) de mantener la tasa de política sin cambios dentro del rango objetivo de 0-0,25%, Jerome Powell, presidente de la Junta de Gobernadores del Sistema de la Reserva Federal, presenta sus comentarios sobre las perspectivas de política.

Declaraciones clave

“Hemos restaurado el funcionamiento del mercado y fomentado condiciones financieras más acomodaticias”.

“La postura política actual es apropiada, pero tenemos la flexibilidad para hacer más cuando sea apropiado”.

“La política monetaria no es la primera línea de defensa para mantener la estabilidad financiera”.

“La orientación de los legisladores muestra confianza en la capacidad de alcanzar la meta de inflación del 2%”.

“Se espera que la economía se recupere rápidamente ahora, pero que la holgura de la economía más adelante ejerza una presión a la baja sobre la inflación”.

“La Fed tardará algún tiempo en alcanzar la meta del 2% y la holgura de la economía ejercerá una presión a la baja sobre la inflación”.

“Los funcionarios de la Fed esperan que la tasa de crecimiento económico sea rápida al principio y luego disminuya a un ritmo más normal”.

16 Sep 2020

Discurso de Powell: La actividad económica general se mantiene muy por debajo de los niveles prepandémicos

Tras la decisión del Comité Federal de Mercado Abierto (FOMC) de mantener la tasa de política sin cambios dentro del rango objetivo de 0-0,25%, Jerome Powell, Presidente de la Junta de Gobernadores del Sistema de la Reserva Federal, presenta sus comentarios sobre las perspectivas de política.

Declaraciones clave 

“No perderé de vista a los millones que siguen sin trabajo”.

“La actividad económica general se mantiene muy por debajo de los niveles prepandémicos y el camino sigue siendo incierto”.

“La pandemia ha dejado una huella significativa en la inflación”.

“La demanda más débil en los sectores afectados por la pandemia ha mantenido bajos los precios al consumidor y la inflación está por debajo del objetivo de la Fed”.

“A pesar de los precios más altos de algunos bienes de consumo, la inflación general sigue siendo moderada”.

 

16 Sep 2020

Discurso de Powell: El gasto de los hogares parece haber recuperado alrededor del 75% de su caída

Tras la decisión del Comité Federal de Mercado Abierto (FOMC) de mantener la tasa de política sin cambios dentro del rango objetivo de 0-0.25%, Jerome Powell, presidente de la Junta de Gobernadores del Sistema de la Reserva Federal, presenta sus comentarios sobre las perspectivas de política.

Declaraciones clave 

“La Fed está firmemente comprometida con la consecución de objetivos de máxima estabilidad de precios y empleo”.

“Los miembros del FOMC tuvieron cambios importantes en la declaración de política”.

“La actividad económica se ha recuperado desde el nivel deprimido del segundo trimestre y el gasto de los hogares se ha recuperado tres cuartas partes del descenso anterior”.

“Viendo señales de mejora en la inversión empresarial”.

16 Sep 2020

EUR/USD cae a mínimos de una semana tras las palabras de Powell

El EUR/USD ha reaccionado con un fuerte rebote al anuncio de la Fed de mantener sus tasas en el rango del 0.0%-0.25%. En primera instancia ha subido a 1.1854, pero posteriormente ha perdido casi 65 pips, deslizándose a la zona 1.1790, nuevo mínimo de 7 días. 

El Comité Federal de Mercado Abierto (FOMC) anunció este miércoles que deja la tasa de interés de referencia, el rango objetivo para los fondos federales, sin cambios en 0% -0.25% como se esperaba ampliamente.

En sus Proyecciones económicas actualizadas, el FOMC dijo que espera que el Producto Interno Bruto (PIB) se contraiga a un ritmo más suave, 3.7%, que el pronóstico anterior de 6.5% en 2020, y prevé que el desempleo sea de 7.6% a fin de año, en comparación con 9.3% en la proyección de junio.

Además, la entidad pronostica que los tipos de interés no se moverán de un promedio del 0.1% al menos hasta 2023 e incluso 2024.

Jerome Powell, presidente de la entidad, ha asegurado que la Fed está firmemente comprometida con el logro de objetivos de máxima estabilidad de precios y empleo. También ha apuntado que la actividad económica se ha recuperado desde el nivel deprimido del segundo trimestre y el gasto de los hogares se ha recuperado tres cuartas partes del descenso anterior, aunque sigue muy por debajo de los niveles pre-pandemia.

El mandatario también aseguró que el nivel actual de compra de bonos es apropiado y dijo que “mi sensación es que es probable que se necesite más apoyo fiscal”, lo que parece insinuar que la pelota para obtener más apoyo está en la cancha del Congreso.

Niveles EUR/USD

Si el euro quiebra por debajo de 1.1800, aparecerá un nivel de soporte crítico en 1.1750, el mínimo mensual, que de ser roto despejará el camino para pérdidas adicionales.

Al alza, la resistencia inicial está en 1.1900. Más arriba esperaría 1.1920 y la barrera 1.1965, techo del 18 de agosto.

16 Sep 2020

USD/JPY se mueve modestamente ya que la Fed no logra inspirar volatilidad

  • El USD/JPY se mantiene por debajo de 105,00 después de la decisión de tipos y los anuncios del FOMC.
  • El precio hizo un yo-yo en un rango de 20 pips y ahora está en la conferencia de prensa.

Contexto fundamental: Nada inesperado de la Fed

La Reserva Federal de los EE.UU. busca lograr el máximo empleo, una inflación del 2% a largo plazo y dice que el camino económico depende del curso del brote de coronavirus. Esto ya se sabía antes de la reunión de hoy, ya que el presidente de la Fed, Jerome Powell, lo declaró en la reunión de Jackson Hole.

Continuaron diciendo “hasta que las condiciones del mercado laboral hayan alcanzado niveles consistentes con las evaluaciones del Comité de empleo máximo y la inflación haya aumentado al 2% y esté en camino de superar moderadamente el 2% durante algún tiempo”.

Por último, el diagrama de puntos ahora sugiere que la Fed puede no subir las tasas hasta 2023. Esto podría ser un poco más largo de lo que esperaban algunos analistas, pero podría ser consistente cuando la Fed vea que los niveles de empleo se recuperan.

Gráfico de 1 hora

El USD/JPY apenas se ha movido después de la decisión de tipos y el anuncio de política del FOMC. El precio fue a probar el mínimo anterior, pero luego volvió a subir casi instantáneamente. En todo caso, la presión parece estar a la baja, ya que la Fed anunció que pueden esperar más de lo que algunos analistas esperaban para subir las tasas.

Ambos indicadores siguen siendo bajistas ya que el histograma MACD está por debajo de cero y el índice de fuerza relativa está en una posición de sobreventa. 

Niveles técnicos

               

16 Sep 2020

USD/CAD contiues to tread dynamic trendline support, bulls eye 1.33 area

  • USD/CAD holds in consolidation as the US dollar attempts the upside, but fails to breakout.
  • Fed’s forward guidance leaves the US dollar hanging on the balance of improved risk sentiment.  
  • 1.33 on the cards if there is a bullish breakout of consolidation from dynamic trendline support. 

USD/CAD is currently trading at 1.3176 between a range of 1.3127 and a high of 1.3200 in a choppy consolidation of the correction of the daily impulse. 

The Federal Reserve event was unable to shake out any spot market dollar bulls that are eager for an upside correction.

We will have to wait to look at data collected since the Fed meeting as for how CTFC positing might have been affected by the event.

However, there was little to encourage a bullish bias for the greenback, given that the Fed consensus suggests that there will be no changes before 2024.

Meanwhile, there was some acknowledgement of improved economic conditions which seemed to have supported the dollar during Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s presser – rather counterintuitively though. 

CAD hangs in the balance of the US dollar and oil 

To date, the view that a reflationary Fed policy has been a dollar negative.

Such a policy should help to support stocks and commodities (CAD is correlated to commodities).

If there is a persistent sense of a recovery, then that should be a weight on the greenback. 

Oil breaks $40bbls

As for commodities, the price of oil has been on the march and broke the $40 handle in mid-North American markets on Wednesday as risk appetite improved.

In addition, the latest API data showed a heavy decline in oil inventories, while headlines have also suggested OPEC+ compliance was above 100% for August.

However, if oil now struggles to gain much further ground and if the US dollar dies indeed breakout to the upside, USD/CAD could be sent on its way to the 1.33 handle as per the technical analysis below:

USD/CAD levels

While al of the above points to a stronger Canadian dollar, the technical landscape on the charts remain negative, bullish USD/CAD.

As illustrated here, it has been a difficult environment to stay long of USD/CAD while the price has consolidated in sideways price action in anticipation of a breakout to the upside:

  • USD/CAD Price Analysis: Bulls pile back in with 1:3 R/R on the table

Original setup showed that the price was likely due an upside extension:

On the 40hour time frame, however, the price has just moved sideways in the creating of dynamic trendline support:

At this juncture, bulls may well be trapped, but a break of the current resistance structure will likely lead to the breakout that has been expected. 

However, failures at resistance and a break of the trendline support and support structure will invalidate such bullish prospects. 

 

 

16 Sep 2020

Gold Price Analysis: XAU/USD needs to top $1,969 after the Fed’s blow – Confluence Detector

Gold has been suffering in response to the Federal Reserve’s decision. The world’s most powerful central bank only reiterated its commitment to low rates but refrained from pledging more bond-buying. The lack of new funds is weighing on the precious metal.

Moreover, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell seemed to signal that the next move depends on the federal government by saying that further stimulus would help.

XAU/USD dropped to around $1,950. Can it recover? 

The Technical Confluences Indicator is showing that gold continues facing fierce resistance at around $1,969, which is the convergence of the Bollinger Band 1h-Upper, the BB one-day Upper, the Pivot Point one-week Resistance 1, and the previous weekly high.

A minor hurlde awaits at $1,961, which is where the Simple Moving Averge 5-4h, the SMA 200-4h, the BB 1h-Middle, and the SMA 10-15m meet up.

Some support is at $1,952, which is the confluence of the Fibonacci 23.6% one-week and the previous 1h-low.

A more significant cushion is at $1,944, which is a juncture including the SMA 200-1h, the Fibonacci 38.2% one-month, and the PP one-day S1. 

Overall, the path of least resistance is down.

Key XAU/USD resistances and supports

Confluence Detector

The Confluence Detector finds exciting opportunities using Technical Confluences. The TC is a tool to locate and point out those price levels where there is a congestion of indicators, moving averages, Fibonacci levels, Pivot Points, etc. Knowing where these congestion points are located is very useful for the trader, and can be used as a basis for different strategies.

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16 Sep 2020

Powell speech: Inflation overshoots not expected to be large or permanent

Following the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) decision to keep the policy rate unchanged within the target range of 0-0.25%, Jerome Powell, Chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, is delivering his comments on the policy outlook.

Key quotes

“The whole Committee is supportive of the statement of longer-run goals and everyone sees need to address changes in the longer run economy.”

“Fed is the first major central bank to adopt this framework and there is no cookbook.”

“We understand we have to support this framework with our actions to earn credibility.”

“There are different ideas of how to do this but that is how it is when you have diverse views.”

“Further support to real estate market may require further action from Congress.”

“It is less intuitive for the public to understand that inflation can be too low.”

“Fed wants inflation to average 2% so the public will expect that and that will be built into interest rates.”

“We’re not looking to have high inflation, just for it to average 2%.”

“These won’t be large overshoots and they won’t be permanent.”

About Jerome Powell (via Federalreserve.gov)

Jerome H. Powell took office as Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System on February 5, 2018, for a four-year term. Mr. Powell also serves as Chairman of the Federal Open Market Committee, the System’s principal monetary policymaking body. Mr. Powell has served as a member of the Board of Governors since taking office on May 25, 2012, to fill an unexpired term. He was reappointed to the Board and sworn in on June 16, 2014, for a term ending January 31, 2028.

16 Sep 2020

Powell speech: Can have quite low unemployment without raising troubling inflation

Following the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) decision to keep the policy rate unchanged within the target range of 0-0.25%, Jerome Powell, Chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, is delivering his comments on the policy outlook.

Key quotes

“Policy will remain accommodative even after the Fed lifts off on rates.”

“Don’t know the connection between asset prices and financial stability is tight but Fed will continue to monitor risks.”

“The labour market has been recovering but is a long way from maximum employment.”

“Overall picture is clear but the labor market is a long way from recovering.”

“If you add back people who are out of the labour force, the unemployment rate would be 3 points higher than it is now.”

“There’s a lot to like about a tight job market especially when there is little inflation.”

“Fed would like to get back to a strong labour market where wages are moving up, labour force participation is moving up and inflation is performing with its framework.”

“We believe we can have quite low unemployment without raising troubling inflation.”

About Jerome Powell (via Federalreserve.gov)

Jerome H. Powell took office as Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System on February 5, 2018, for a four-year term. Mr. Powell also serves as Chairman of the Federal Open Market Committee, the System’s principal monetary policymaking body. Mr. Powell has served as a member of the Board of Governors since taking office on May 25, 2012, to fill an unexpired term. He was reappointed to the Board and sworn in on June 16, 2014, for a term ending January 31, 2028.

16 Sep 2020

S&P 500 Index: Fed sends stocks down with reluctance to add more support

The S&P  500 Index has dropped below the 3,400 point mark and is trading down on the day. US stocks have turned down after Federal Reserve Chairman said that the bank sees the current level of bond-buying as appropriate, conveying a message that no new support is needed. 

Powell also said signaled that additional fiscal support would be helpful to assist the economy. The Fed left rates unchanged and adjusted its language on inflation to the new policy shift. Maintaining low-interest rates had already been priced in by investors. 

The bank’s dot-plot pointed to a smaller contraction in 2020 but a slower growth rate in 2021.