• El repunte del peso mexicano pierde impulso después de golpear la fuerte resistencia.
  • USD/MXN sesgado a la baja a pesar del repunte, pero es probable que haya cierta consolidación.

El USD/MXN hizo suelo el miércoles en 21.50, el nivel más bajo desde el 16 de marzo y luego se recuperó, borrando las pérdidas. Está a punto de terminar el día, rondando el nivel 21.75/80. El repunte del peso mexicano encontró resistencia en 21.50.

Las monedas de los mercados emergentes descendieron durante la sesión estadounidense, pero se mantuvieron respaldadas por el apetito de riesgo constructivo. El real brasileño superó nuevamente y el USD/BRL se acercó a 5.0.

El dólar cayó nuevamente en todos los ámbitos, con el DXY acercándose a 97.00. El dólar podría permanecer débil mientras continúa la recuperación del riesgo. Los datos económicos de Estados Unidos llegaron mejor de lo esperado, pero no tuvieron impacto en los mercados.

Perspectiva técnica

El repunte del USD/MXN se produce después de tres días consecutivos de caídas. Aún así, la tendencia apunta a la baja y una caída por debajo de 21.60 podría aumentar la presión bajista. El próximo fuerte soporte se ve en 21.30. Por el lado positivo, la resistencia inmediata se sitúa en 22.05/10.

La fuerte caída en el par y el rebote desde 21.50 podrían sugerir cierta consolidación. El USD/MXN cayó en once de las últimas doce sesiones de negociación, por lo que una corrección modesta o una consolidación parece estar atrasada.

Niveles técnicos

                                                           

 

  • Dow Jones unofficially closes up 522.55 points, or 2.03%, at 26,265.20.
  • NASDAQ unofficially closes up 68.36 points, or 0.71% , at 9,676.73.
  • S&P 500 unofficially closes up 40.73 points, or 1.32%, at 3,121.55.

US benchmarks were firmly bid again mid-week with risk assets rallying strongly again as the optimism about economic recovery keeps gathering momentum.

Easy monetary conditions are also helping to keep the bid alive and the news that German Chancellor Merkel’s coalition reached a deal on german stimulus package – Bloomberg was beneficial. Markets in Europe are also benefiting from expectations of further action from the ECB.

Meanwhile, the good news rolled over into the US session as data proved to be better than expected, or rather, not as bad. Markets also looked through geopolitical tensions. Consequently, the Dow Jones unofficially closed up 522.55 points, or 2.03%, at 26,265.20 while the NASDAQ unofficially ended up 68.36 points, or 0.71% at 9,676.73. S&P 500 unofficially added 40.73 points, or 1.32%, to close at 3,121.55.

US ADP surprised

ADP job losses were much less than expected in May. Jobs fell 2.76m compared with expectations of 9m.

“This could point to a shallower than anticipated downturn in the labour market, but it is quite another challenge for employment to recover from here. The euro area April unemployment rate rose to 7.3% from 7.1%, way below the 8.2% expected. But Eurostat does not count furloughed workers as unemployed or those who lost their jobs due to the lockdowns but unable to look for work,” analysts at ANZ Bank explained.

DJIA levels

 

  • AUD/USD is trading near its highest level since early January 2020.
  • The level to beat for bulls is the 0.6990 resistance. 
 

AUD/USD four-hour chart

 
AUD/USD breaks to fresh 5-month highs as the USD selloff remains unabated. The aussie is trading just below the 0.6990 resistance and above its main SMAs while the market capitalizes on the bullish momentum. However, the quote will need a clear break beyond the 0.6990 level for a potential run towards the 0.7183 resistance levels. On the other hand, support can emerge near the 0.6834 and 0.6749 levels.
 
 

Additional key levels

 

  • El EUR/USD continúa presionando al alza por encima de 1.1200 por los flujos de apetito de riesgo.
  • El índice del dólar estadounidense cae por debajo de 97.50 después de datos optimistas de EE.UU.
  • Se espera que el Banco Central Europeo amplíe el PEPP.

La amplia presión de venta que rodea al dólar permitió que el par EUR/USD extendiera su repunte hasta el séptimo día consecutivo el miércoles. Después de tocar su nivel más alto desde el 12 de marzo en 1.1250, el par ha entrado en una fase de consolidación y se vio por última vez que ganando un 0.6% en el día en 1.1235.

El USD de refugio seguro sigue teniendo dificultades para encontrar demanda en el entorno de apetito de riesgo. Aunque el índice del dólar estadounidense se mantuvo relativamente tranquilo cerca de 97.50 durante el horario comercial europeo, las publicaciones de datos macroeconómicos causaron que el índice perdiera su tracción.

Los datos mensuales publicados por el ADP Research Institue revelaron que el empleo del sector privado en los EE.UU. disminuyó en 2.76 millones en mayo. Esta lectura superó las expectativas del mercado de una caída de 9 millones por un amplio margen. Además, el PMI no manufacturero del ISM subió a 45.4 desde 41.8 en abril para revelar que la actividad comercial en el sector de servicios continuó recuperándose.

¿El BCE ofrecerá estímulos adicionales?

El jueves, el Banco Central Europeo (BCE) anunciará sus decisiones de política monetaria. Aunque se espera que el BCE mantenga sus tasas de interés clave sin cambios, los inversores estarán atentos a los cambios en el Programa de compra de emergencia pandémica (PEPP).

Previendo la reunión del BCE, “una expansión del PEPP de €750 mil millones, el esfuerzo de compra de bonos del banco lanzado en marzo, probablemente irá acompañado de la advertencia de larga data de que la carga principal de la recuperación europea debe ser asumida por los gobiernos nacionales”. dijo Joseph Trevisani. 

Niveles técnicos

                                               

What you need to know on Thursday, May 4th:

The market remained in risk-on mode on Wednesday, resulting in the dollar losing further. The EUR/USD pair hit a daily high of 1.1251, ending the day nearby. Upbeat US data was only good to boost equities, which in turn, pressured the greenback.  

The GBP/USD pair hit 1.2614 but eased from highs amid fears the UK and the EU won’t be able to reach a post-Brexit trade deal. Talks are underway, although no progress has been reported.

Civil unrest in the US continues, although with violence receding. Nevertheless, the tense situation adds to the dollar’s weakeners.

The Bank of Canada left rates unchanged, with Governor Poloz leaving the seat. The statement was optimistic as policymakers believe that coronavirus’ economic impact “appears to have peaked.” The central bank announced it will be reducing the frequency of its term repo operations to once per week, and its program to purchase bankers’ acceptances to bi-week operations. The Canadian dollar appreciated further with the news, with USD/CAD piercing 1.3500.

Gold was among the worst performers, losing the 1,7000 mark on the back of risk appetite. Crude oil prices eased from highs, as, despite the OPEC+ is willing to extend its output cuts, members are struggling with compliance.

Market talks suggested that the Trump administration has selected five coronavirus vaccine programs, which would receive additional government funding. Those vaccines are from Moderna, AstraZeneca, Pfizer, Merck, and Johnson & Johnson. The headline boosted the upbeat mood.

Wall Street closed with gains, while US Treasury yields jumped to fresh over two-week highs, reflecting the market’s optimist over economic recoveries.

Cryptocurrency Market News: A small bounce back has been noted today

Bloomberg reported earlier in the day that the German coalition parties have agreed on on on a big stimulus package that will strengthen the overall economy and allow the labour market to recover more quickly from the coronavirus pandemic.

key notes

Chancellor Angela Merkel secured a stimulus package to help Europe’s biggest economy recover from the coronavirus crisis.

The euro briefly extended its advance for the day following news of the stimulus agreement, reaching an almost 12-week high of $1.1257, before paring its gain for the day to around 0.6%.

After an initial shot of stimulus in March, Merkel’s administration vowed to spend whatever it takes to get the country growing again. Including programs to guarantee company liquidity, Germany has made more than 1.2 trillion euros available — the most in the European Union by far. Still, the efforts couldn’t halt unemployment rising in May to the highest level since late 2015.

After a brief period of unity at the height of the pandemic, party differences waylayed efforts to revive Germany’s faltering economy. The Social Democrats were pushing for higher spending and measures focusing on workers and families, while the CDU was keen to limit the amount of new debt and get businesses investing again.

The latest stimulus package could represent the last major spending initiative before elections late next year, meaning stakes for the ruling parties were high.

The first step is to pull Germany out of deep recession. Weeks of stringent restrictions to contain the virus hurt demand for everything from Volkswagen cars to Adidas shoes and prompted the landmark 9 billion-euro bailout of Deutsche Lufthansa AG. The economy is expected to contract by more than 6% this year, which would be a more severe contraction than during the financial crisis.

While social-distancing rules remain in place, Germany’s lockdown restrictions have largely been unwound with contagion rates held in check.

On Wednesday, Germany took a further step to reactivate European travel. Merkel’s cabinet approved plans that pave the way for a broad travel warning to be replaced from June 15 with recommendations for individual nations in the 27-member EU, countries in the passport-free Schengen area and the U.K.

Market implications

The coronavirus pandemic further hit Germany’s labour market in May as companies continued to slash thousands of jobs and put millions of employees on reduced working hours, data showed on Wednesday.

However, as markets head higher, the bullish sentiment is here to stay and we are seeing the tides turn in FX.

More on that here…USD/JPY rallies to test the vicinity of 109 level

In a phone call with Merkel, Chinese President Xi Jinping said that China stands ready to work with Germany and the EU to strengthen strategic cooperation, uphold multilateralism, tackle global challenges, and jointly add certainty to the current world of uncertainty, Xinhua published today.

Market implications

There is a growing sentiment that China has all of this under control, despite the US administration’s best efforts to curb the nation’s progress o the international stage. There is an undertone of USD weakness on the long term outlook considering its vulnerability to being replaced as the world’s reserve currency. Trade wars have taken a back seat again which is also weighing on the greenback.

 Reuters reported that the World Health Organization (WHO) is set to resume its trial of hydroxychloroquine for potential use against the new coronavirus, its head Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said on Wednesday after testing was suspended due to health concerns.

Tedros also told an online media briefing he was “especially worried” about the outbreak in Central and South America, where infections have been spreading rapidly.

Key notes

  • World health organization head says continues to respond to other health emergencies while monitoring COVID-19.
  • Who’s tedros says “especially worried about central and south America”.
  • World health organization says no reason to modify clinical trial of hydroxychloroquine in COVID-19.
  • World health organization says experts advised the continuation of all arms of the solidarity trial, including hydroxychloroquine arm.
  • Who chief scientist “no evidence that any drug reducing mortality of patients that have COVID-19”.
  • Who expert says keen to see results of trials of avifavir in COVID-19.
  • Who expert says no indication so far new coronaviris’s ability to transmit disease has changed.
  • Who expert says hopes trials of hydroxychloroquine will continue until have we definite answer on whether it works.

Market implications

Risk on remains the theme on hopes of a vaccine and while economies open up and start to see V-shaped recoveries in the economic data. More on this here…

  • USD/JPY rallies to test the vicinity of 109 level

  •  

The South African rand has risen sharply during May against the US dollar. Analysts at MUFG Bank, argue domestic bond liquidation has slowed helping to ease downward pressure on the rand. They forecast USD/ZAR will reach 17.00 by the third quarter and 16.75 during the fourth. 

Key Quotes:

“The rand has finally rebounded against the US dollar alongside other hard hit emerging currencies such as the Mexican peso and Brazilian real. US dollar  weakness has broadened out. The reversal of lockdown measures and optimismover the search for a COVID-19 vaccine have helped to brighten the global growth outlook, and left the US dollar more vulnerable to aggressive Fed easing. The South African government announced its own plans to ease their strict lockdown further on 1st June.”

“The SARB expects the South African economy to contract even more sharply this year by -7.0% followed by a modest rebound of 3.8% in 2021. It has already prompted the SARB to lower their key policy rate to the lowest on record. The scope for further cuts appears more limited now.”

“The deterioration in the public finances already prompted Moody’s to strip South Africa of its last remaining investment grade rating, and subsequently their government bonds have been removed from the FTSE World government bond index. It triggered heavy capital outflows in March when foreign investors sold a net ZAR55.6 billion of South African bonds. The pace of outflows has since eased significantly to just ZAR4.8 billion in May as government bonds have since retraced all losses from March. In these circumstances, we expect the rand to strengthen modestly in the year ahead.”
 

  • Intento de recuperación del USD/CHF desde 0.9575, limitado por debajo de 0.9650.
  • El dólar no aprovecha la debilidad del CHF después de un PIB suizo peor de lo esperado.
  • El dólar está sobre el soporte clave en 0.9590.

La reversión del dólar estadounidense desde 0.9700 encontró soporte el martes en 0.9575, mínimo de dos meses, antes de recuperarse por encima de 0.9600. Sin embargo, la recuperación del USD ha sido limitada por debajo de 0.9650, con el par casi sin cambios en el gráfico diario y ambas monedas pesaron en medio de un estado de ánimo positivo en el mercado.

El USD no aprovecha un CHF débil

El dólar abrió el día con un tono ofrecido, avanzando a los máximos de la sesión en 0.9648 a raíz de datos del Producto Interno Bruto suizo más débiles de lo esperado. La economía suiza se contrajo un 2,6% en el primer trimestre, una desaceleración del 1,6% interanual, muy por encima de las expectativas del mercado de un declive económico del 0,9%.

Sin embargo, el dólar estadounidense no tuvo seguimiento y volvió a niveles justo por encima de 0.9600 durante la sesión estadounidense. Las cifras de empleo de ADP de EE.UU. mejores de lo esperado y el PMI no manufacturero ISM han mejorado el estado de ánimo del mercado, que se reflejó en los mercados de renta variable positivos y la mayor demanda de activos más riesgosos como el EUR, GBP, AUD o NZD.

USD/CHF flotando por encima del soporte importante en 0.9590

El par cotiza a corta distancia desde 0.9590 (mínimo del 14 de abril y 1 de mayo). Un claro quiebre de este nivel podría aumentar la presión bajista hacia el mínimo del 27 de marzo en 0.9500 y el mínimo del 16 de marzo en 0.9390. Por el lado positivo, la resistencia inmediata se encuentra en 0.9640/50 (mínimo del 21 y 28 de mayo), luego probablemente en el soporte anterior de la línea de tendencia, alrededor de 0.9680 y 0.9735 (máximo del 25 de mayo).

Niveles clave

USD/CHF

Panorama
Último Precio de Hoy 0.962
Cambio Diario de Hoy -0.0004
Cambio Diario de Hoy % -0.04
Apertura Diaria de Hoy 0.9624

 

Tendencias
SMA de 20 Diaria 0.9691
SMA de 50 Diaria 0.9687
SMA de 100 Diaria 0.9683
SMA de 200 Diaria 0.978

 

Niveles
Máximo Previo Diario 0.9638
Mínimo Previo Diario 0.9573
Máximo Previo Semanal 0.9736
Mínimo Previo Semanal 0.9602
Máximo Previo Mensual 0.9784
Mínimo Previo Mensual 0.9589
Fibonacci Diario 38.2% 0.9613
Fibonacci Diario 61.8% 0.9598
Punto Pivote Diario S1 0.9585
Punto Pivote Diario S2 0.9547
Punto Pivote Diario S3 0.9521
Punto Pivote Diario R1 0.965
Punto Pivote Diario R2 0.9676
Punto Pivote Diario R3 0.9714