• XAG/USD dips to near $15.00 per ounce in the Thursday session. 
  • The level to beat for buyers remain the 15.43 resistance.  
 
 

Silver four-hour chart 

 
XAG/USD stays sidelined near $15.00/oz below the 50 and 100 SMAs and above the 200 SMA on the four-hour chart. The bullish correction from 2020 lows remains intact as buyers are still eyeing for a breakout beyond the 15.43 resistance en route towards the 15.85 and 16.50 levels. Conversely,  15.00 should act as support followed by 14.50 price level.
 
 
Resistance: 15.43, 15.85, 16.50
Support: 15.00, 14.50, 13.90
 
 

Additional key levels

 

  • EUR/USD breakout following the ECB press conference. 
  • The level to beat for buyers is the 1.0972 resistance.  
 

EUR/USD daily chart 

 
Euro/Dollar is trading in a downtrend below its main SMAs on the daily chart, however, the spot is bounced sharply and tested the 1.0950 level along with the 50 SMA on the daily chart. The break higher happened after the ECB press conference although month-end flows can also be the reason behind the move, according to analysts. 
 

EUR/USD four-hour chart

 
EUR/USD broke beyond the 1.0884/1.0900 resistance zone and hit the 1.0972 resistance while trading above its main SMAs on the four-hour chart. The strong up move opens the gates to further gains towards the 1.1040 level. Support is expected to emerge near 1.0884/1.0900 turning support and the 1.0845 levels. 
 
 
Resistance: 1.0941/1.0972, 1.1040
Support: 1.0884/1.0900, 1.0845,  
 
 

Additional key levels

 

  • NZD/USD has rallied to a key resistance zone with little signs of waning below 0.6100.
  • Risks are tilted to the downside in the wake of trade wars and possible risks of new COVID-19 cases. 

NZD/USD has been on the grind to the upside as the US dollar lost its footing, giving way below the 100 handle in the DXY. The bird has been able to capitalise on this and breached he mid-April resistance, poking its head above the 0.61 figure. At the time of writing, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6132 having climbed from a low of 0.6107 to reach a high of 0.6176. 

“Aussie and Kiwi were the market darlings of April, but Kiwi is the darling at the minute as the big dollar languishes,” analysts at ANZ Bank explained. 

We did see an attempt to break through key resistance at 0.6170 overnight and that’s going to be a magnet today too, all else equal. For now, there’s no reason to stand in the way of the rally, but regular readers will be aware that we’re more cautious medium term. If markets are on a risk-on mood (oil has snapped back) then Kiwi will be better supported.

All eyes on trade war risks and COVID-19 contagion prospects 

That being said, the COVID-19 situation is fluid and there is plenty to be cautious over as some nations and numbers of state in the US seek to kick start their economies by easing social distancing meares and get businesses back to work. Western Europe’s experience in relaxing restrictions, and the most successful approaches there, will inform the approaches deployed in the United States.

However, what the bird does have going for it is its own domestic circumstances, pertaining to COVID-19 and opening up of the economy, is far better looking (safer) than that of the US. This can give it an edge in the market, although if we see a resurgence in COVID-19 cases around the world as nations try to normalise, then, we are certainly going to see more volatility which is USD favourable. 

By the same token, should trade wars be a thing again in coming weeks, as per yesterday’s US Pres Trump: US trade deal with China has been “upset very badly” by the coronavirus, again, the bird will suffer in such a climate and the US dollar will thrive. 

NZD/USD levels

 

 

 

  • El índice del dólar estadounidense (DXY) está en camino de finalizar abril cerca de 99.00.
  • El nivel a superar para los vendedores es el soporte 98.90.

 
Gráfico diario

El DXY cotiza cerca de los mínimos de abril, mientras que está por debajo de la SMA de 50 pero por encima de las SMAs de 100 y 200 en el gráfico diario.
 

Gráfico de 4 horas
 

El DXY está en camino de finalizar abril cerca de sus mínimos, mientras que está por debajo de las principales SMA en el gráfico de cuatro horas. El mercado cambiará su atención al nivel de soporte 98.90. Una ruptura de dicho nivel podría abrir las puertas a nuevas pérdidas hacia los niveles de precios 98.25 y 97.50. Por otro lado, la resistencia se puede ver cerca de 99.30, 99.60 y la marca de 100.00.

Niveles técnicos

                                                                     

What you need to know on  Friday,May 1st:

  • Most markets will remain closed amid the celebration of Labour Day. The US will work as normal, as the country celebrates it in  a different date.
  •  The ECB had a monetary policy meeting, and made minor twists to its current policy, as it left rates unchanged while easing TLTRO conditions, by reducing interest rates between June 2020 and June 2021. It also announced a new lending program, meant to support the economy through the pandemic. President Lagarde acknowledged the EU is going an unprecedented contraction and that the Union’s GDP may fall between 5%-12% this year.
  • EU’s Q1 GDP came in at -3.3%, worse than anticipated. Nevertheless, the EUR/USD pair surged to 1.0972, ending the day not far below this last. The dollar sold-off ahead of London close amid month-end fixing. GBP/USD also surged to flirt with monthly highs in the 1.2640 price zone.
  • The USD/JPY jumped to 107.30, despite Wall Street closed in the red. US data disappointed with 3.84M people filing for unemployment last week, and personal spending plunging by 7.5%.
  • Gold edged lower settling around $1,690 a troy ounce. WTI jumped ahead of the close and finished the day at $19.00 a barrel.
  • Crypto Today – Retracement phase in full flow after yesterday’s impressive rally
  • USD/JPY turns higher despite broad-based USD weakness. 
  • The next major hurdle on the way up can be the 108.00 figure. 
 

USD/JPY daily chart

 
USD/JPY is bouncing back from the April lows nearing 3-day highs. USD/JPY is moving up amid broad-based USD weakness. 
  

USD/JPY four-hour chart

 
USD/JPY is regaining the 50 and 100 SMAs on the four-hour chart as the market is picking up steam. The first major hurdle can be located near the 108.00 figure and the 108.70 resistance level. Pullbacks down could find support near the 107.00 and 106.35 level. However, a breach below the 106.35 support can see the market turn lower again towards the 105.70 and 105.00 figure.  
 

Additional key levels