• US Dollar remains sideways, consolidating modest daily gains.
  • EUR/USD holds around 1.1300, with a bearish intraday bias, but supported around 1.1300.

The EUR/USD pair is moving sideways in a small range ahead of the Brexit vote at the UK Parliament, holding near the 1.1300 area.

Earlier today, EUR/USD rose to test yesterday’s high around 1.1335 but failed to break higher and turned to the downside. A stronger US dollar pushed the pair further lower and bottomed at 1.1292.

Since the beginning of the US session it is moving in a modest range between 1.1310 and 1.1290 ahead of another Brexit vote in the UK.

The move to the downside today took place amid a recovery of the US dollar across the board. The DXY was rising 0.25% after falling during the previous four trading days. Also US yields were higher on Thursday adding support to the greenback. The key event ahead is the vote in the UK for an extension of Article 50, scheduled at 17:00 GMT.

EUR/USD Short-term levels

To the upside, immediate resistance is seen at 1.1305/10 (upper limit of intraday range), followed by 1.1335 (Mar 13 & 14 high) and 1.1365. On the flip side, support could be located at 1.1290/95 (daily low and bottom of an ascendant channel), 1.1275 and 1.1245/50 (Mar 12 low).

"USD/TRY has been trading sideways since March 7 following its rally from the year-to-date low set in January. This period of consolidation is likely to resolve in the coming days," Rabobank's EM FX Strategist Piotr Matys notes.

Key quotes

"Given that the preceding short-term trend was bullish, the odds favour a break higher in USD/TRY towards 5.575 – the upper boundary of the wider range has been in place since November. In terms of a potential catalyst for a bullish breakout, market concerns ahead of local elections scheduled on March 31 could escalate if the administration announces more fiscal measures."

"The relationship between the US and Turkey could be another source of worries for investors. Earlier this month the US warned of “grave consequences” if Turkey proceeds with its decision to purchase the Russian S-400 missile defence system. Yet another diplomatic spat could seriously undermine the still fragile sentiment towards the lira. A rise in risk aversion is an obvious potential
external trigger."

"We have to be mindful that a break lower in USD/TRY from its consolidating phase cannot be excluded. Under such a bearish scenario the pair could revisit the lower boundary of its multimonth range. That said, the odds to our mind are skewed in favour of USD/TRY breaking higher."

USD/JPY daily chart

  • USD/JPY is trading above its main simple moving averages (SMAs) suggesting a bullish bias.

USD/JPY 4-hour chart

  • USD/JPY is trading above its main SMAs suggesting bullish momentum in the medium-term.

USD/JPY 30-minute chart

  • USD/JPY is trading above its main SMAs suggesting a bullish bias in the short-term.
  • A break above 111.70 can lead to 112.00 resistance.
  • Supports are at 111.50, 111.30 and 110.90 level.

Additional key levels

USD/JPY

Overview:
Today Last Price: 111.64
Today Daily change: 48 pips
Today Daily change %: 0.43%
Today Daily Open: 111.16
Trends:
Daily SMA20: 111.11
Daily SMA50: 110.02
Daily SMA100: 111.31
Daily SMA200: 111.42
Levels:
Previous Daily High: 111.47
Previous Daily Low: 111
Previous Weekly High: 112.14
Previous Weekly Low: 110.78
Previous Monthly High: 111.5
Previous Monthly Low: 108.73
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 111.18
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 111.29
Daily Pivot Point S1: 110.95
Daily Pivot Point S2: 110.75
Daily Pivot Point S3: 110.49
Daily Pivot Point R1: 111.42
Daily Pivot Point R2: 111.68
Daily Pivot Point R3: 111.88

U.S. President Trump has recently crossed the wires saying that they would tariff European products if they didn't start trade talks with them.

Key quotes (via Reuters)

  • We’re doing very well with China talks.
  • We’re getting what we have to get.
  • Can't say if we’ll strike a final deal with China.
  • Surprised how badly the Brexit negotiations have gone.
  • UK Prime Minister May did not listen to his suggestions on how to negotiate Brexit.
  • Disappointing data from China weighs on NZD on Thursday.
  • Bloomberg says there won't be a meeting between Trump and Xi until late April.
  • US Dollar Index stages modest recovery.

After posting gains in the last four trading days, the NZD/USD pair reversed its course on Thursday and erased a large part of this week's advance. As of writing, the pair was trading at 0.6815, losing 0.6% on a daily basis.

In the early Asian session, the data from China showed that the annual industrial production growth eased to 5.3% in January from 5.7% in December and fell short of the market expectation of 5.5% to weigh on the NZD.

Later in the day, Bloomberg in a report claimed that the meeting between President Trump and President Xi was likely to be postponed to late April and further hurt the demand for currencies such as the AUD and the NZD. "Despite claims of progress in talks by both sides, a hoped-for summit at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort will now take place at the end of April if it happens at all," Bloomberg said citing a source familiar with talks. The next catalyst for the NZD will be the Business NZ PMI and visitor arrivals data that are scheduled to be released at 21:30 GMT and 21:45 GMT, respectively.

On the other hand, the greenback is staying relatively strong against its rivals on Thursday despite a lack of positive fundamental drivers. At the moment, the DXY is up 0.28% on the day at 96.75.

Key technical levels

NZD/USD

Trends:
Daily SMA20: 0.6834
Daily SMA50: 0.681
Daily SMA100: 0.6787
Daily SMA200: 0.6742
Levels:
Previous Daily High: 0.6863
Previous Daily Low: 0.6828
Previous Weekly High: 0.6832
Previous Weekly Low: 0.6744
Previous Monthly High: 0.6943
Previous Monthly Low: 0.6719
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 0.6841
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 0.685
Daily Pivot Point S1: 0.6836
Daily Pivot Point S2: 0.6815
Daily Pivot Point S3: 0.6801
Daily Pivot Point R1: 0.6871
Daily Pivot Point R2: 0.6885
Daily Pivot Point R3: 0.6906

  • The Aussie Dollar stays under pressure near recent lows.
  • US-China trade concerns collaborate with the downside.
  • Decent support has emerged at 0.7000 so far.

The pick up in the greenback is pouring cold water over the weekly recovery in AUD/USD, dragging it to the area of 0.7040, where some initial contention turned up.

AUD/USD looks to trade

The pair has come under renewed selling pressure on Thursday, trading in fresh 3-day lows around 0.7040 in response to the strong pick up in the demand for the greenback along with fresh concerns on the trade front.

On the latter, earlier news said the meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping has been delayed until April at least, alleviating the prevailing optimism around a potential agreement and at the same time weighing on the riskier assets.

In the AU docket, the RBA minutes are next on tap on Tuesday, while the always-key labour market report is expected on March 21.

What to look for around AUD

The broad risk-appetite trends continue to drive the sentiment in the high-beta currencies and the commodity-bloc, where developments in the US-China trade dispute remain the almost exclusive catalyst of the price action. The upcoming RBA minutes (Tuesday) are expected to confirm the shift to a more neutral stance from the central bank, while market participants continue to price in a rate cut at some point in H2 2019, all keeping the medium term bearish outlook on AUD unchanged for the time being.

AUD/USD levels to watch

At the moment the pair is retreating 0.58% at 0.7052 and a break below 0.7003 (low Mar.8) would aim for 0.6907 (monthly low Sep.4 2015) and finally 0.6827 (monthly low Jan.26 2016). On the upside, the next hurdle emerges at 0.7097 (high Mar.13) followed by 0.7125 (55-day SMA) and finally 0.7159 (100-day SMA).

EUR/GBP daily

  • EUR/GBP is trading in a sideways trend below its main simple moving averages (SMAs).
  • The Sterling can see high volatility as the UK’s Parliamentary vote on Brexit is starting at 17.00 GMT.

EUR/GBP 4-hour chart

  • EUR/GBP is trading below the main SMAs suggesting consolidation in the medium-term.

EUR/GBP 30-minute chart

  • EUR/GBP is trading below its main SMAs suggesting bearish momentum in the short-term.
  • A break below 0.8500 can lead to 0.8440 support.
  • Resistances are seen at 0.8550, 0.8580 and 0.8650 level.

Additional key levels

EUR/GBP

Overview:
Today Last Price: 0.8535
Today Daily change: 41 pips
Today Daily change %: 0.48%
Today Daily Open: 0.8494
Trends:
Daily SMA20: 0.8636
Daily SMA50: 0.8747
Daily SMA100: 0.8823
Daily SMA200: 0.8852
Levels:
Previous Daily High: 0.8645
Previous Daily Low: 0.847
Previous Weekly High: 0.8656
Previous Weekly Low: 0.8536
Previous Monthly High: 0.8842
Previous Monthly Low: 0.8529
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 0.8537
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 0.8579
Daily Pivot Point S1: 0.8428
Daily Pivot Point S2: 0.8362
Daily Pivot Point S3: 0.8253
Daily Pivot Point R1: 0.8603
Daily Pivot Point R2: 0.8712
Daily Pivot Point R3: 0.8778