• The USD/MXN pair is rising today after falling during four days in-a-row on the back of a weaker US dollar. So far today, gains are limited and price remains above a key support level, supporting the bullish tone.
  • To the downside, the area between 19.25 and 19.30 is a crucial support: 20-day moving average, uptrend line, and horizontal level. A daily close significantly below would clear the way to more losses and potentially to a test of 19.00 and the medium-term uptrend seen at 18.97.
  • If the pair holds on top of 19.30, the bullish bias will remain in place. The US dollar needs to recover on top of 19.40 to gain momentum. The key resistance levels are seen at 19.45 and 19.60. Above 19.60 the next target is seen at 19.85.

USD/MXN Daily chart

USD/MXN

USD/MXN 4 hour chart

USDMXN

Overview:
Today Last Price: 19.342
Today Daily change %: 0.30%
Today Daily Open: 19.2842
Trends:
Daily SMA20: 19.2809
Daily SMA50: 19.2013
Daily SMA100: 19.658
Daily SMA200: 19.4274
Levels:
Previous Daily High: 19.3673
Previous Daily Low: 19.2604
Previous Weekly High: 19.6225
Previous Weekly Low: 19.214
Previous Monthly High: 19.4726
Previous Monthly Low: 19.0168
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 19.3012
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 19.3265
Daily Pivot Point S1: 19.2406
Daily Pivot Point S2: 19.197
Daily Pivot Point S3: 19.1337
Daily Pivot Point R1: 19.3475
Daily Pivot Point R2: 19.4109
Daily Pivot Point R3: 19.4545

USD/CHF daily chart

  • USD/CHF is trading in a bull trend above its main simple moving averages (SMAs).

USD/CHF 4-hour chart

  • USD/CHF is trading between the 50 and 100 SMAs suggesting a consolidation in the medium-term.

USD/CHF 30-minute chart

  • USD/CHF is trading below the 100 and 200 SMAs suggesting downward pressure in the short-term.
  • A break below 1.0040 can lead to 0.9990 support.
  • To the upside, resistances are seen near 1.0070 and 1.0090 level.

Additional key levels

USD/CHF

Overview:
Today Last Price: 1.004
Today Daily change: 1 pips
Today Daily change %: 0.01%
Today Daily Open: 1.0039
Trends:
Daily SMA20: 1.0033
Daily SMA50: 0.9973
Daily SMA100: 0.997
Daily SMA200: 0.9918
Levels:
Previous Daily High: 1.0085
Previous Daily Low: 1.0026
Previous Weekly High: 1.0125
Previous Weekly Low: 0.9977
Previous Monthly High: 1.01
Previous Monthly Low: 0.9921
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1.0049
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1.0062
Daily Pivot Point S1: 1.0015
Daily Pivot Point S2: 0.9991
Daily Pivot Point S3: 0.9956
Daily Pivot Point R1: 1.0074
Daily Pivot Point R2: 1.0109
Daily Pivot Point R3: 1.0133

British lawmakers have rejected the Amendment I, that seeks to give the control to MPs by allowing the House of Commons to find a way forward that can command majority support, by a majority of 2 votes, 314 vs 312.

British lawmakers have rejected the technical change to the amendment I by a majority of 3 votes, 314 vs 311. Lawmakers are now voting on amendment I, which is designed to give the control to MPs by allowing the House of Commons to find a way forward that can command majority support.

According to analysts at Wells Fargo, New Home sales begin 2019 on a soft note but they look for and improvement. Data released today showed new home sales fell 6.9% in January while at the same time sales for prior 3 months were revised significantly higher.

Key Quotes:

“New home sales fell 6.9% in January to a 607,000-unit pace. Consensus estimates had called for a modest increase, as homebuilders had reported a rise in prospective buyer traffic earlier this year. Homebuilder confidence and consumer confidence have both rebounded, following the Fed’s monetary policy pivot.”

“Moreover, with mortgage rates about a half of a percentage point lower than they were in December, mortgage purchase applications have increased. Given the improvement in these advance indicators, we are looking for some improvement in new home sales as we move into the spring.”

"New home sales look set to improve this spring. In addition to the drop in mortgage rates, builders now have a little more inventory for prospective buyers to choose from. Builders currently have 336,000 homes available for sale, which equates to a 6.6-month supply. That is up from 295,000 units a year ago, or a 5.6-month
supply. About three quarters of that inventory is in the South and West, where the bulk of new homes are sold.”

Much of this new product is also available at lower price points. The median price of a new home was $317,200 in January, which is 3.9% lower than it was a year ago.”

  • GBP/USD is moving with a range of between 1.3207 and 1.3335 on Thursday as Brexit funding gets underway again.

Following lawmakers resoundingly rejecting Prime Minister Theresa May's revised divorce deal with the EU on Tuesday, Britain's parliament is now voting another crunch vote on Brexit today – on whether to leave the European Union as scheduled on March 29 with no agreement in place – a no-deal exit.

The first vote has been on amendment H – a second referendum – This was tabled by ex-Tory Sarah Wollaston, now of the Independent Group, and signed by around 30 MPs, seeking an Art. 50 extension to stage a new referendum.

The result was as follows:

Yes: 85 Noes: 334

The next votes are as follows (timings are variable):

  • 1715 GMT (a touch late) – Indicative votes x 2
  • 1745 GMT – Labour deal
  • 1800 GMT – Rule another vote on PM’s deal
  • 1815 GMT – Main motion – delay Brexit

"Even if the Brexit date is extended, keeping the UK in the European Union for longer, the British economy is still going to suffer," analysts at ING Bank argued.

A softer Brexit outcome may eventually command a majority

"As we noted earlier in the week, we still suspect a softer Brexit outcome may eventually command a majority – but in the short-run, many Conservative MPs may be inclined to vote down such a proposal if it sounds too much like backing the Labour Party's preferred permanent customs union option," the analysts at ING explained.

GBP/USD levels

GBP/USD was finding support at the 38.2.6% Fibo retracement of the 11th March low. The Ichimoku Cloud is bullish. There is potential for some higher grounds according to the daily stochastics. Bears look for a test below the 38.2% Fibo confluence level where bulls will look to hold for a considerable discount, targetting the 1.36 handle, (1.3584 200 week ma).

According to Jason Wong, Senior Markets Strategist at BNZ, the NZD/EUR pair is facing resistance ahead to make further progress after a strong run in the cross since October.

Key Quotes:

“The cross is trading below its average since 2012, following the steep fall through 2017. Has settled in a 0.56-0.61 range since late-2017. 0.56 is a strong support level, having spent very little time below that level since 2011. 0.61-0.6120 represents a key resistance level.”

“Reflecting safe-haven characteristics for the euro, NZD/EUR generally weakens in a falling risk appetite environment. Risk appetite has improved this year, stretching back up to an above-average level. A sustained period of risk aversion would be a headwind for the cross.”

“Sentiment for EUR has been subdued, not helped by the recent run of poor data, and it wouldn’t take much to see some improvement.”

“Our bias is for NZD/EUR to head lower, targeting about 0.57 through the next year. Reduced Brexit risk (spillover from GBP) would support this view.”

GBP/USD daily chart

  • GBP/USD is trading in a bull trend above its main simple moving averages.
  • Sterling can see high volatility as the UK’s Parliamentary vote on Brexit is starting at 17.00 GMT.


GBP/USD 4-hour chart

  • GBP/USD is trading above its main SMAs suggesting a bullish bias in the medium-term.

GBP/USD 30-minute chart

  • GBP/USD is trading above the 100 and 200 SMAs suggesting bullish momentum in the short-term.
  • A break above 1.3300 resistance could lead to 1.3400 and 1.3500 figure.
  • Looking down, immediate support is seen at 1.3200 figure and 1.3150 level.

Additional key levels

GBP/USD

Overview:
Today Last Price: 1.3267
Today Daily change: -73 pips
Today Daily change %: -0.55%
Today Daily Open: 1.334
Trends:
Daily SMA20: 1.3107
Daily SMA50: 1.3001
Daily SMA100: 1.289
Daily SMA200: 1.2984
Levels:
Previous Daily High: 1.3384
Previous Daily Low: 1.306
Previous Weekly High: 1.3269
Previous Weekly Low: 1.299
Previous Monthly High: 1.3351
Previous Monthly Low: 1.2773
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1.3261
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1.3184
Daily Pivot Point S1: 1.3139
Daily Pivot Point S2: 1.2937
Daily Pivot Point S3: 1.2814
Daily Pivot Point R1: 1.3463
Daily Pivot Point R2: 1.3586
Daily Pivot Point R3: 1.3788

GBP/JPY daily chart

  • GBP/JPY is trading in a bull leg above its main simple moving averages (SMAs).
  • The Sterling can see high volatility as the UK’s Parliamentary vote on Brexit is starting at 17.00 GMT.

GBP/JPY 4-hour chart

  • GBP/JPY is trading above its main SMAs suggesting a bullish momentum in the medium-term.

GBP/JPY 30-minute chart

  • GBP/JPY is trading above its main SMAs suggesting a bullish momentum in the short-term.
  • A break above 149.00 can lead to 150.00 and 151.50 resistances.
  • Supports are at 145.25, 144.75 and 144.00 level.

Additional key levels

GBP/JPY

Overview:
Today Last Price: 148.29
Today Daily change: 2 pips
Today Daily change %: 0.01%
Today Daily Open: 148.27
Trends:
Daily SMA20: 145.63
Daily SMA50: 143.04
Daily SMA100: 143.47
Daily SMA200: 144.66
Levels:
Previous Daily High: 148.74
Previous Daily Low: 145.36
Previous Weekly High: 148.47
Previous Weekly Low: 144.31
Previous Monthly High: 148.28
Previous Monthly Low: 141.01
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 147.45
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 146.65
Daily Pivot Point S1: 146.18
Daily Pivot Point S2: 144.09
Daily Pivot Point S3: 142.81
Daily Pivot Point R1: 149.55
Daily Pivot Point R2: 150.83
Daily Pivot Point R3: 152.92