14 Dec 2018

Daily Market View

Daily Market View

Friday, December 14, 2018
          U.S Stock Market

 

DJIA S & P 500 NASDAQ
24573 2647.75 6774.00
-0.04% -0.40% -0.77%

U.S stocks gave back most of their morning gains as of midday yesterday as investors continue to digest headlines surrounding the potential for a U.S-China trade deal. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 3 points, or less than 0.1%, while the S&P 500 index fell 6 points or 0.1%. The NASDAQ traded down 47 points, or 0.7%. At session highs early yesterday, the Dow was up 214 points, the S&P 15 points, while the NASDAQ briefly traded up 56 points. U.S.-China trade concerns remained at fore of investor minds, as they continue to digest headlines from earlier in the week that suggested the Chinese were ready to make significant concessions to their industrial policy and reduce tariffs on imported autos, while President Trump indicated he would intervene in the arrest of Huawei’s chief financial officer Meng Wanzhou if it would help ensure a trade deal with China. The perception of progress was tempered by news late Wednesday that China had arrested a second Canadian diplomat in apparent retaliation for Meng’s arrest.

 

 

Major Economic Releases for Today
Period Event GMT Forecast Previous

 

Summit of EU Leaders      

dec

Nikkei Japan PMI Manufacturing 00:30   52.2

nov

China Retail Sales (YoY) 02:00 8.8% 8.6%

oct

Japan Industrial Production (YoY) 04:30   4.2%

dec

Markit/BME Germany Manufacturing PMI 08:30 51.7 51.8

dec

Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI 09:00 51.8 51.8

nov

U.S Retail Sales Advance (MoM) 13:30 0.1% 0.8%

nov

U.S Manufacturing (SIC) Production 14:15 0.3% 0.3%

dec

Markit US Manufacturing PMI 14:45 55.1 55.3
Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.29%. The best performers of the session on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were Procter & Gamble Company, which rose 2.62% or 2.46 points to trade at 96.49 at the close. Meanwhile, McDonald’s Corporation added 1.61% or 2.95 points to end at 186.43 and Merck & Company Inc. was up 1.28% or 1.00 points to 79.01 in late trade. The worst performers of the session were Nike Inc., which fell 1.87% or 1.39 points to trade at 72.93 at the close. DowDuPont Inc. declined 1.05% or 0.57 points to end at 53.78 and American Express Company was down 0.73% or 0.78 points to 106.70.

NASDAQ 100

The NASDAQ index declined 0.39%. The top performers were Adial Pharmaceuticals Inc. which rose 104.93% to 4.16, Cancer Genetics Inc. which was up 55.32% at 0.365 and Pernix Therapeutics Holdings Inc. which gained 22.86% to close at 0.430. The worst performers were Applied Genetic which was down 47.10% to 3.47 in late trade, CounterPath Corp which lost 22.53% to settle at 1.410 and LogicBio Therapeutics Inc. which was down 21.77% to 9.70 at the close.

Oil

Oil prices rose yesterday, after data showed inventory declines in the United States and as investors began to expect that the global oil market could have a deficit sooner than they had previously thought. OPEC’s output agreement with Russia and Canada’s decision to mandate production cuts could create an oil market supply deficit by the second quarter of next year, if the top producers stick to their deal, the International Energy Agency said in its monthly Oil Market Report. U.S crude inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for U.S crude futures, fell by nearly 822,000 barrels in the week through Dec. 11, traders said, citing data from market intelligence firm Genscape. Stockpiles fell by 1.2 million barrels in the week to Dec. 7, disappointing some investors who had expected a decrease of 3 million barrels. The data showed stockpiles jumping by 1.1 million barrels in Cushing during that week. U.S West Texas Intermediate light crude rose 86 cents, or 1.7 percent, to $52.01.

 

 

Precious and Base Metals

Gold eased to its lowest in nearly one week yesterday as the dollar rose and investors latched on to gains in global stocks, while palladium touched record highs on expectations of higher demand. Spot gold eased 0.2 percent to $1,243.27 per ounce, while U.S gold futures were down 0.2 percent at $1,247.50 per ounce. The dollar gained against a basket of major currencies, helped by a dip in the euro after the European Central Bank reduced growth and inflation projections for next year and said the balance of risk was tilted toward the downside. It looks like ECB President Mario Draghi was a little more dovish than expected, so we are seeing the euro currency back off and the dollar strengthening, and this is weighing on gold prices. Also weighing on bullion was an upbeat sentiment for risk, with global stock markets receiving a boost on signs of easing U.S.-China trade tensions. With equities rebounding this week, gold has fallen slightly out of favor as traders unwound their safe-haven bets. Markets would now be turning their attention to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Dec. 18-19, with the focus on the future path of interest rate hikes in 2019. If the Fed adopts a more dovish stance, we should see the dollar quickly retreat and that should give gold an opportunity to rally. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion and weigh on the dollar, making it cheaper for holders of other currencies. Gold’s recent breakout above the $1,240 resistance means the path of least resistance is still to the upside and it should get a lift if the dollar were to fall on the back of a dovish Fed. Among other precious metals, spot palladium was down 0.7 percent at $1,253.24 per ounce. Silver was steady at $14.73 per ounce, having hit $14.81 earlier, its highest since Nov. 2. Platinum fell 0.6 percent to $793.60.

Traditional Agricultures

Soybean futures fell to a one-week low yesterday as confirmation of a 1.13 million-tonnes U.S soybean sale to China failed to impress traders who are shifting their focus to burdensome U.S and global supplies. Wheat futures neared a two-month top, supported by signs of rising global prices, while corn futures were little changed.

 

 

Futures Settlement Price Thursday, December 13, 2018
Instrument Contract Open High Low Settlement Net Change
DJIA DJM18 24591 24768 24499 24573 18
S & P 500 SPM18 2657.5 2675 2641 2647.75 -3.25
NASDAQ 100 NDM18 6799.75 6864 6748.75 6774 8.5
Hang Seng HSH18 26384 26621 26308 26527 294
Nikkei 225 NKH18 21610 21800 21600 21790 170
FTSE 100 FTH18 6886 6911 6846 6848 -3.5
Gold GCJ18 1250.7 1251.4 1244.1 1246 -4.4
Silver SIK18 1483 1488.5 1475.5 1482 -0.5
Copper HGK18 276.7 280.35 276.3 276.75 0.4
Crude Oil CLK18 51.16 53.23 50.32 52.82 1.66
Wheat WK18 528.25 538.25 527 535.5 9.5
Soybeans SK18 918.5 919.5 904.75 906.5 -13
Corn CK18 384 385.75 382.25 383.75 -1

 

 

Daily Swings  (The Pivot Levels)
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
DJM18 24190 24344 24459 24613 24728 24882 24997
SPM18 2600.17 2620.58 2634.17 2654.58 2668.17 2688.58 2702.17
NDM18 6611.92 6680.33 6727.17 6795.58 6842.42 6910.83 6957.67
HSH18 26037 26172 26350 26485 26663 26798 26976
NKH18 21460 21530 21660 21730 21860 21930 22060
FTH18 6760.67 6803.33 6825.67 6868.33 6890.67 6933.33 6955.67
GCJ18 1235.63 1239.87 1242.93 1247.17 1250.23 1254.47 1257.53
SIK18 1462.50 1469.00 1475.50 1482.00 1488.50 1495.00 1501.50
HGK18 271.20 273.75 275.25 277.80 279.30 281.85 283.35
CLK18 48.11 49.21 51.02 52.12 53.93 55.03 56.84
WK18 517.67 522.33 528.92 533.58 540.17 544.83 551.42
SK18 886.25 895.50 901.00 910.25 915.75 925.00 930.50
CK18 378.58 380.42 382.08 383.92 385.58 387.42 389.08

 

 

 Source: – News & Quotes (Courtesy:  Reuters)                                                                    

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

 

 

 

 

14 Dec 2018

FOREX Newsletter

FOREX Newsletter

December 14, 2018

 

Pulse of the Market

·      U.S unemployment claims dropped to 206 thousand, well below the estimate of 226 thousand

·      U.S inflation was flat in November, dropping from 0.3 percent a month earlier

·      UK Prime Minister Theresa May survived a vote of no confidence yesterday

·      ECB kept its primary rate target at -0.40 percent and marked down its outlook on regional growth

The U.S Dollar was higher yesterday, as the number of people who filed for first-time unemployment benefits hit a two-and-a-half month low. The U.S Dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of six major currencies, rose 0.19% to 97.20. The dollar was boosted after the U.S Department of Labor said that the number of individuals applying for initial jobless benefits in the seven days ended Dec. 8 decreased by 27,000 to a seasonally adjusted 206,000. Meanwhile the pound was slightly higher after UK Prime Minister Theresa May survived a vote of no confidence on Wednesday evening. Brexit woes continue despite the victory, as it seems unlikely that May’s party will support her agreement with Brussels on leaving the European Union in March. The euro fell against the dollar yesterday after the European Central Bank as expected halted new bond purchases and promised to maintain policy support for the euro zone due to risks from trade tensions, Brexit and budget woes in Italy and France. On the other hand, ECB kept its primary rate target at -0.40 percent. It also marked down its outlook on regional growth. Sterling held steady following UK Prime Minister Theresa May’s prevailing in her party’s vote on her leadership the previous day. Traders’ attempt to extend sterling’ gains faded on uncertainty on what more May, who is currently in Brussels, could get from EU leaders to improve on her Brexit proposal. On Monday, May scrapped a parliamentary vote on her current plan, sending the pound to a 20-month low against the dollar and triggering a no-confidence vote on her leadership. The Canadian dollar edged lower against its U.S counterpart yesterday, paring some of the previous day’s gains as oil prices fell and the greenback broadly climbed. The price of oil, one of Canada’s major exports, fell after data on Wednesday showed a smaller-than-expected drawdown in U.S crude stockpiles. U.S crude oil futures were down 0.6 per cent at $50.86 a barrel.

 

Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
  Summit of EU Leaders High      
00:30 Nikkei Japan PMI Manufacturing (DEC) Medium     52.2
02:00 China Retail Sales (YoY) (NOV) Medium   8.8% 8.6%
02:00 China Industrial Production (YoY) (NOV) Medium   5.9% 5.9%
04:30 Japan Industrial Production (YoY) (OCT) Medium     4.2%
08:30 Markit/BME Germany Manufacturing PMI (DEC) Medium   51.7 51.8
09:00 Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (DEC) Medium   51.8 51.8
13:30 U.S Retail Sales Advance (MoM) (NOV) High   0.1% 0.8%
13:30 U.S Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas (NOV) Medium   0.4% 0.3%
13:30 U.S Retail Sales Control Group (NOV) Medium   0.5% 0.3%
14:15 U.S Industrial Production (MoM) (NOV) Medium   0.3% 0.1%
14:15 U.S Manufacturing (SIC) Production (NOV) Medium   0.3% 0.3%
14:45 Markit US Manufacturing PMI (DEC) Medium   55.1 55.3
14:45 Markit US Services PMI (DEC) Medium   55 54.7
18:00 Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count (DEC 14) Medium     1075

 

Euro

The single currency fell against the Dollar yesterday after the European Central Bank as expected halted new bond purchases and promised to maintain policy support for the euro zone due to risks from trade tensions, Brexit and budget woes in Italy and France. ECB kept its primary rate target at -0.40%. It also marked down its outlook on regional growth. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1329 and a high of 1.1392 before closing the day around 1.1356 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen moved lower in yesterday’s trading session. In the U.S, unemployment claims dropped sharply to 206 thousand, well below the estimate of 226 thousand. Japan’s manufacturing sector is being squeezed by the ongoing U.S-China trade war, which is having a chilling effect on the Japanese economy. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 113.18 and a high of 113.68 before closing the day around 113.59 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound held steady following UK Prime Minister Theresa May’s prevailing in her party’s vote on her leadership the previous day. It had rallied on Wednesday in anticipation as traders bet her win might allow her to negotiate more generous terms for Britain in its exit from the European Union in March. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.2608 and a high of 1.2684 before closing the day at 1.2657 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar edged lower against its U.S counterpart yesterday, paring some of the previous day’s gains as oil prices fell and the greenback broadly climbed. The U.S dollar rose against a basket of major currencies after the European Central Bank trimmed its growth and inflation projections for next year, pressuring the euro. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.3336 and a high of 1.3381 before closing the day at 1.3351 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar is holding near a one-week high as riskier assets are boosted by signs of progress in Sino-US trade relations. But most of the action in the forex world was in the British pound with most other currencies bystanders amid high political drama in Britain, where Prime Minister Theresa May survived a no-confidence vote on her leadership. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7210 and a high of 0.7244 before closing the day at 0.7228 in the New York session.

 

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 52 and lies below the neutral zone. In general, the pair has gained 0.22%.

 

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bullish tone and MACD is indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 45 reading and lies below the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has gained 0.57%.

 

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is also indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 51 reading and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.40%.

 

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and below 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bearish tone and MACD is issuing a bullish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 59 and lies above the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.30%.

  

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bullish stance and MACD is indicating a bearish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 39 and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.31%.

 

Appendix

  

FOREX Closing Prices for December 13, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.1368 1.1392 1.13297 1.13563 -0.0011
USD/JPY 113.291 113.689 113.186 113.597 0.3320
GBP/USD 1.26258 1.26846 1.26083 1.26577 0.0032
USD/CHF 0.99334 0.99525 0.99098 0.9938 0.0005
USD/CAD 1.33487 1.33816 1.3336 1.33514 0.0003
EUR/JPY 128.802 129.231 128.685 129.048 0.2840
GBP/JPY 143.056 143.909 142.867 143.803 0.8110
CHF/JPY 114.027 114.418 113.937 114.256 0.2620
AUD/JPY 81.797 82.174 81.657 82.066 0.3300
EUR/GBP 0.90025 0.90129 0.89504 0.89733 -0.0027
EUR/CHF 1.12937 1.12999 1.12637 1.12924 0.0000
GBP/CHF 1.25425 1.25897 1.25289 1.25822 0.0039

  

 

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1264 1.1297 1.1327 1.1359 1.1389 1.1422 1.1451
USD/JPY 112.79 112.99 113.29 113.49 113.80 113.99 114.30
GBP/USD 1.2540 1.2574 1.2616 1.2650 1.2692 1.2727 1.2768
USD/CHF 0.9872 0.9891 0.9914 0.9933 0.9957 0.9976 1.0000
USD/CAD 1.3285 1.3311 1.3331 1.3356 1.3377 1.3402 1.3422
EUR/JPY 128.20 128.44 128.75 128.99 129.29 129.53 129.84
GBP/JPY 142.10 142.48 143.14 143.53 144.19 144.57 145.23
CHF/JPY 113.51 113.72 113.99 114.20 114.47 114.68 114.95
AUD/JPY 81.24 81.45 81.76 81.97 82.27 82.48 82.79
EUR/GBP 0.8882 0.8916 0.8945 0.8979 0.9007 0.9041 0.9070
EUR/CHF 1.1235 1.1249 1.1271 1.1285 1.1307 1.1322 1.1343
GBP/CHF 1.2483 1.2506 1.2544 1.2567 1.2605 1.2628 1.2666

 

 

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

 

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.