13 Dec 2018

Daily Market View

Daily Market View

Thursday, December 13, 2018
          U.S Stock Market

 

DJIA S & P 500 NASDAQ
24555 2651.00 6765.50
+0.31% +0.32% +0.50%

U.S stocks advanced as the outlook for trade took a positive turn and confidence grew that the British prime minister will defeat a challenge to her leadership. The S&P 500 rose as much as 1.9 percent before an afternoon slump that cut the advance by more than half. The slide marks the fourth straight day that investors have sold an early rally, continuing a trend that’s a stark reversal from months where traders bought any meaningful dip. Oil’s retreat coincided with the move, amid reports that deep discord exists among OPEC members ahead of planned output cuts. The early gains came as signs emerged that trade tensions would ease, first after the arrested Huawei executive was granted bail and then when President Donald Trump suggested he could use his influence to calm that situation as part of a deal with China. For its part, China hinted that it would ease access to local markets. Treasuries and the dollar both slipped as data showed a key measure of U.S inflation picked up as expected in November.

 

Major Economic Releases for Today
Period Event GMT Forecast Previous

 

Summit of EU Leaders      

nov

U.K RICS House Price Balance 00:01 -10.0% -10.0%

nov

German Consumer Price Index (YoY) 07:00 2.3% 2.3%

dec

SNB Sight Deposit Interest Rate 08:30 -0.75% -0.75%

 

SNB’s Jordan Speaks at Press Conference in Bern 09:00    

dec

European Central Bank Rate Decision 12:45 0.00% 0.00%

oct

Canada New Housing Price Index (YoY) 13:30 0.1% 0.2%

dec

U.S Initial Jobless Claims 13:30 225k 231k

nov

U.S Monthly Budget Statement 19:00 -$197.0b -$100.5b
Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.64%. The best performers of the session were DowDuPont Inc., which rose 2.05% or 1.09 points to trade at 54.35 at the close. Meanwhile, American Express Company added 1.97% or 2.08 points to end at 107.48 and Caterpillar Inc. was up 1.73% or 2.13 points to 125.37 in late trade. The worst performers of the session were Verizon Communications Inc., which fell 2.72% or 1.60 points to trade at 57.25 at the close. Exxon Mobil Corp declined 0.86% or 0.66 points to end at 76.02 and Walmart Inc. was down 0.79% or 0.74 points to 93.11.

NASDAQ 100

The NASDAQ index added 0.95%. The top performers on the NASDAQ were Teligent Inc. which rose 30.80% to 1.805, Staffing 360 Solutions Inc. which was up 28.79% to settle at 1.700 and EyeGate Pharmaceuticals Inc. which gained 28.30% to close at 0.513. The worst performers were Synergy Pharmaceuticals Inc. which was down 52.80% to 0.160 in late trade, Yangtze River Port and Logistics Ltd which lost 23.34% to settle at 4.86 and Neurotrope Inc. which was down 23.03% to 3.8100 at the close.

Oil

U.S crude oil inventories fell less than expected last week, the Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report yesterday. The EIA data showed that crude oil inventories decreased by 1.21 million barrels in the week to Dec. 7. That was compared to forecasts for a stockpile draw of 2.99 million barrels, after a drop of 7.32 million barrels in the previous week, amounting to a second straight weekly decline. The EIA report also showed that gasoline inventories rose by 2.09 million barrels, compared to expectations for a build of 2.46 million barrels, while distillate stockpiles unexpectedly decreased by 1.48 million barrels, compared to forecasts for a gain of 1.80 million. Ahead of the release, oil prices had already been climbing after the American Petroleum Institute’s weekly report said on Tuesday that U.S. crude inventories fell by 10.2 million barrels last week. Oil has also been supported this week by the supply loss in Libya, which declared force majeure on exports from the country’s largest oilfield on Sunday.

 

Precious and Base Metals

Gold prices edged higher yesterday as the dollar slipped and expectations for the number of U.S interest rate hikes next year dimmed, increasing the appeal of non-interest yielding bullion. Spot gold was up 0.1 percent at $1,244.40 per ounce. U.S gold futures settled up $2.80, or 0.22 percent, at $1,250. The dollar was weaker against a basket of currencies after data showed U.S consumer prices were unchanged in November, supporting the view that underlying inflation remained firm, but not enough to push the Federal Reserve to take a more aggressive stance. We are seeing a bit of support from a weaker dollar across the commodities complex. In addition to that, we are seeing an ongoing outflow of funds from equities and that money flow into alternative assets continues to support the precious metals complex. Investors kept an eye out for developments around U.S-China trade talks, and on Brexit after lawmakers in British Prime Minister Theresa May’s Conservatives gathered enough support to trigger a no-confidence vote in her leadership yesterday. The safe-haven assets continue to be well supported in this environment and that along with some recent comments from the Fed on changing their potential path on interest rates has also been supportive. Markets are not expecting more than one rate hike from the U.S central bank next year, after a likely interest rate increase at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Dec. 18-19. Next week’s FOMC meeting is going to be the last major economic event of the year. The gold market has started to price in the ‘one and done’ interest rate scenario. Dollar-denominated bullion earlier this week touched its highest level in five months at $1,250.55 per ounce as chances of slower interest rate hikes reduced the opportunity cost of holding the yellow metal. Indicative of investor interest in gold, holdings of SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, rose to the highest level since late August on Tuesday.

 

 

Traditional Agricultures

Soybean futures hit a 4-1/2-month high yesterday as China bought U.S soybeans for the first time since U.S President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping met in early December.

 

 

 

Futures Settlement Price Wednesday, December 12, 2018
Instrument Contract Open High Low Settlement Net Change
DJIA DJM18 24347 24842 24334 24555 141
S & P 500 SPM18 2632.5 2686.25 2631.5 2651 10.5
NASDAQ 100 NDM18 6686.25 6871.5 6683.25 6765.5 50.75
Hang Seng HSH18 26028 26270 25991 26233 520
Nikkei 225 NKH18 21260 21625 21230 21620 550
FTSE 100 FTH18 6855.5 6903.5 6826.5 6851.5 20.5
Gold GCJ18 1248.2 1252.2 1246.9 1250.4 2.3
Silver SIK18 1465 1488 1462 1482.5 18.5
Copper HGK18 276.35 277.9 275.55 276.35 0
Crude Oil CLK18 51.92 52.79 50.91 51.16 -0.77
Wheat WK18 522.5 528.5 521.25 526 5.5
Soybeans SK18 915.5 927.5 915 919.5 4.75
Corn CK18 384.5 387.25 384 384.75 0.25

 

 

Daily Swings  (The Pivot Levels)
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
DJM18 23804 24069 24312 24577 24820 25085 25328
SPM18 2571.50 2601.50 2626.25 2656.25 2681.00 2711.00 2735.75
NDM18 6487.08 6585.17 6675.33 6773.42 6863.58 6961.67 7051.83
HSH18 25780 25886 26059 26165 26338 26444 26617
NKH18 20963 21097 21358 21492 21753 21887 22148
FTH18 6740.50 6783.50 6817.50 6860.50 6894.50 6937.50 6971.50
GCJ18 1242.17 1244.53 1247.47 1249.83 1252.77 1255.13 1258.07
SIK18 1441.00 1451.50 1467.00 1477.50 1493.00 1503.50 1519.00
HGK18 272.95 274.25 275.30 276.60 277.65 278.95 280.00
CLK18 48.57 49.74 50.45 51.62 52.33 53.50 54.21
WK18 514.75 518.00 522.00 525.25 529.25 532.50 536.50
SK18 901.33 908.17 913.83 920.67 926.33 933.17 938.83
CK18 380.17 382.08 383.42 385.33 386.67 388.58 389.92

 

 Source: – News & Quotes (Courtesy:  Reuters)                                                                    

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

 

 

 

 

13 Dec 2018

FOREX Newsletter

FOREX Newsletter

December 13, 2018


 

Pulse of the Market

·      U.S consumer inflation reports softened in November, but matched the estimates

·      The ongoing U.S-China trade war has had a chilling effect on the Japanese manufacturing sector

·      The likely outcome of Friday’s summit are a blow to German Finance Minister Olaf Scholz

·      The Canadian Dollar gained against the U.S Dollar, boosted by higher oil prices

 

The U.S Dollar was lower yesterday, as inflation data underlined expectations that the Federal Reserve will slow its pace of rate hikes in 2019. The Labor Department said its consumer price index was unchanged from a month earlier, slowing from the 0.3% increase seen in October. Analysts had forecast a 0.1% increase. The U.S Dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of six major currencies, fell 0.3% to 97.09. The dollar has been under pressure recently amid expectations that the Fed will pause its pace of interest rate hikes next year, despite an expected rate increase next week. The British pound has rallied amid speculation Theresa May can survive the vote of confidence against her, lowering the chances of a hard Brexit leader winning control of the ruling Conservative party. In the latest twist for sterling in a turbulent week, the pound rose to $1.2620 against the dollar and €1.1121 against the euro, as more than 150 Conservative MPs said they would vote for the PM. Business leaders reacted angrily to the fresh turmoil in Westminster, saying the latest uncertainty was bad for the economy. The US Dollar has been grinding higher against the Japanese yen for some time, but every time we get close to the ¥114 level, we pull back a bit and it looks likely that the uptrend underneath should continue to offer support. Ultimately, this is a market that should eventually make a decision, but it may not be until 2019 that it happens. Japanese Core Machinery Orders rebounded with a gain of 7.6%, but fell short of the forecast of 10.2%. Japanese PPI continues to lose ground, and dropped from 2.9% to 2.3%. This missed the estimate of 2.4%. The Canadian Dollar was boosted by higher oil prices and investor optimism over trade negotiations between the United States and China. Canada exports many commodities, including oil, and runs a current account deficit, so its economy stands to benefit if the outlook improves for the global flow of trade and capital.

 

Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
00:00 Australia Consumer Inflation Expectation (DEC) Medium 3.6%
00:01 U.K RICS House Price Balance (NOV) Medium -10.0% -10.0%
07:00 German Consumer Price Index (YoY) (NOV) Medium 2.3% 2.3%
08:30 SNB Sight Deposit Interest Rate (DEC 13) High -0.75% -0.75%
09:00 SNB’s Jordan Speaks at Press Conference in Bern High
12:45 European Central Bank Rate Decision (DEC 13) High 0.00% 0.00%
12:45 ECB Marginal Lending Facility (DEC 13) High 0.25% 0.25%
12:45 ECB Deposit Facility Rate (DEC 13) High -0.40% -0.40%
13:30 Canada New Housing Price Index (YoY) (OCT) Medium 0.1% 0.2%
13:30 U.S Export Price Index (YoY) (NOV) Medium 3.1%
13:30 U.S Import Price Index ex Petroleum (MoM) (NOV) Medium 0.0% 0.2%
13:30 U.S Initial Jobless Claims (DEC 8) Medium 225k 231k
19:00 U.S Monthly Budget Statement (NOV) Medium -$197.0b -$100.5b
23:50 Japan Tankan Large Manufacturing Index (4Q) Medium 18 19

Euro

The single currency gained in yesterday’s session. European Union leaders will ditch proposals to use a euro zone budget for economic stabilization and restrict any funds to long-standing EU goals of convergence among their economies and increasing competitiveness, draft summit conclusions showed yesterday. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1313 and a high of 1.1386 before closing the day around 1.1366 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen posted small gains yesterday. On the release front, Japanese Core Machinery Orders rebounded with a gain of 7.6%, but fell short of the forecast of 10.2%. Japanese PPI continues to lose ground, and dropped from 2.9% to 2.3%. In the U.S, consumer inflation reports softened in November, but matched the estimates. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 113.12 and a high of 113.50 before closing the day around 113.26 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound rallied amid speculation Theresa May can survive the vote of confidence against her, lowering the chances of a hard Brexit leader winning control of the ruling Conservative party. Sterling rose by more than 1% against the dollar and by 0.8% against the euro yesterday after Tory rebels triggered the vote on May’s leadership of their party. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.2475 and a high of 1.2670 before closing the day at 1.2625 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar strengthened against its U.S. counterpart, boosted by higher oil prices and investor optimism over trade negotiations between the United States and China. U.S. President Donald Trump, in an interview with Reuters, said that trade talks with Beijing were under way by telephone, with more meetings likely between U.S and Chinese officials.  Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.3320 and a high of 1.3395 before closing the day at 1.3348 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar rose along with global equities as tentative signs of easing Sino-US trade tensions whetted risk appetite. A gauge of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan jumped 0.9 per cent while US stock futures were upbeat too. Risk appetite got a boost after U.S President Donald Trump said trade talks with Beijing were already underway, with more meetings likely among US and Chinese officials. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7196 and a high of 0.7236 before closing the day at 0.7217 in the New York session.

 

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 50 and lies below the neutral zone. In general, the pair has gained 0.38%.

 

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bullish tone and MACD is indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 41 reading and lies below the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has gained 1.00%.

  

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is also indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 48 reading and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.09%.

 

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and below 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bearish tone and MACD is issuing a bullish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 61 and lies above the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.67%.

 

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bullish stance and MACD is indicating a bearish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 37 and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 1.15%.

 

Appendix

  

FOREX Closing Prices for December 12, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.13153 1.1386 1.13137 1.13669 0.0051
USD/JPY 113.356 113.502 113.121 113.265 -0.0900
GBP/USD 1.2485 1.26704 1.24753 1.26256 0.0139
USD/CHF 0.9931 0.99637 0.99112 0.99331 0.0002
USD/CAD 1.339 1.33951 1.332 1.33485 -0.0039
EUR/JPY 128.29 128.842 128.275 128.764 0.4910
GBP/JPY 141.536 143.421 141.497 142.992 1.4210
CHF/JPY 114.111 114.362 113.796 113.994 -0.1190
AUD/JPY 81.628 82.029 81.589 81.736 0.0750
EUR/GBP 0.90612 0.90673 0.89668 0.90005 -0.0061
EUR/CHF 1.12397 1.12952 1.12325 1.1292 0.0053
GBP/CHF 1.24002 1.258 1.23961 1.25432 0.0142

  

 

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1253 1.1283 1.1325 1.1356 1.1397 1.1428 1.1470
USD/JPY 112.71 112.92 113.09 113.30 113.47 113.68 113.85
GBP/USD 1.2315 1.2395 1.2510 1.2590 1.2706 1.2786 1.2901
USD/CHF 0.9856 0.9884 0.9908 0.9936 0.9961 0.9989 1.0013
USD/CAD 1.3239 1.3279 1.3314 1.3355 1.3389 1.3430 1.3464
EUR/JPY 127.85 128.06 128.41 128.63 128.98 129.19 129.55
GBP/JPY 139.93 140.71 141.85 142.64 143.78 144.56 145.70
CHF/JPY 113.17 113.48 113.74 114.05 114.31 114.62 114.87
AUD/JPY 81.10 81.34 81.54 81.78 81.98 82.22 82.42
EUR/GBP 0.8855 0.8911 0.8956 0.9012 0.9056 0.9112 0.9157
EUR/CHF 1.1189 1.1211 1.1251 1.1273 1.1314 1.1336 1.1377
GBP/CHF 1.2249 1.2323 1.2433 1.2506 1.2617 1.2690 1.2801

 

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.