29 Nov 2018

FOREX Newsletter

      

FOREX Newsletter

 November 29, 2018

 

Pulse of the Market

·      Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said that interest rates are just below neutral

·      Investors are also focused on the G20 summit in Buenos Aires on Friday and Saturday

·      Euro zone members aim to agree reforms to make their currency union more resilient

·      The Canadian dollar weakened to a five-month low against its U.S. counterpart yesterday

The U.S Dollar tumbled from two-week highs yesterday after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said that interest rates are just below neutral, raising expectations that the U.S. central bank is closer to the end of its rate hike cycle. Powell said the policy rate, at 2-2.25 percent, is now “just below” the broad range of estimates of neutral, which in September was 2.5-3.5 percent. That contrasts with comments on Oct. 3 when Powell said the Fed might raise rates past neutral, adding that they are probably “a long way” from that point. The Fed has not raised the rates in order to gain ground on neutral between Oct. 3 and today, so therefore his view of the economy has declined. The dollar has been under pressure in recent weeks on signs that the Fed might reduce the pace of rate increases amid slowing global growth, peak corporate earnings and the escalating trade tensions. U.S President Donald Trump has also expressed frustration with Fed rate hikes. Trump said in a Washington Post interview on Tuesday that he was “not even a little bit happy” with the Fed chairman and that the central bank’s policies are hurting the economy. Minutes from the Fed’s Nov. 7-8 meeting, to be released today, will next be evaluated for further indications of how many more times the U.S central bank is likely to hike interest rates. Investors are also focused on the G20 summit in Buenos Aires on Friday and Saturday, where Trump and his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, are scheduled to discuss contentious trade matters. German Finance Minister Olaf Scholz said yesterday he wants euro zone reforms to include changing the European Stability Mechanism bailout fund to a European Monetary Fund (EMF) to support members’ states when needed. The British Pound was already higher before the government’s analysis of Brexit scenarios report was released yesterday. The beleaguered currency actually managed to climb further higher – hitting the $1.28.

 

 

Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
06:45 Switzerland Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (3Q) High   2.9% 3.4%
07:45 French Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (3Q) Medium   1.5% 1.5%
08:55 German Unemployment Change (000’s) (NOV) High   -10k -11k
08:55 German Unemployment Claims Rate s.a. (NOV) High   5.1% 5.1%
09:30 U.K Net Consumer Credit (OCT) Medium   1.0b 0.8b
09:30 U.K Net Lending Sec. on Dwellings (OCT) Medium   3.5b 3.9b
09:30 U.K Mortgage Approvals (OCT) Medium   64.5k 65.3k
10:00 Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence (NOV) Low   -3.9 -3.9
13:00 German Consumer Price Index (YoY) (NOV) High   2.4% 2.5%
13:30 U.S Personal Income (OCT) Medium   0.4% 0.2%
13:30 U.S Personal Spending (OCT) Medium   0.4% 0.4%
13:30 U.S PCE Core (YoY) (OCT) High   2.1% 2.0%
13:30 U.S Initial Jobless Claims (NOV 24) Medium   220k 224k
15:00 U.S Pending Home Sales (YoY) (OCT) Medium   -2.8% -3.4%
19:00 U.S FOMC Meeting Minutes (NOV 08) High      

 

Euro

The single currency gained as Euro zone members aim to agree reforms to make their currency union more resilient when they meet next week. German Finance Minister Olaf Scholz said he wanted to promote a euro zone budget as part of the EU budget to help investment, economic convergence and stability in the euro zone. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1265 and a high of 1.1386 before closing the day around 1.1364 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen pair ticked lower in the Wednesday session. On the release front, U.S. Preliminary GDP for the third quarter gained 3.5%, just shy of the estimate of 3.6%. This follows an identical gain of 3.5% in the Advanced GDP release. Today promises to be a busy day, as the U.S releases three key indicators. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 113.42 and a high of 114.01 before closing the day around 113.66 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound ticked higher yesterday. On the release front, the BoE released its financial stability report. In the U.S, the key event was Preliminary GDP, which gained 3.5% in Q3. This follows an identical gain of 3.5% in the Advanced GDP release in October. Today, the U.K releases Net Lending to Individuals as well as GfK Consumer Confidence. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.2730 and a high of 1.2845 before closing the day at 1.2821 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar weakened to a five-month low against its U.S counterpart yesterday as oil prices declined and ahead of the potential signing of a new North American trade pact this week. The price of oil was pressured yesterday by rising U.S inventories and doubts over whether an OPEC-led output cut will be agreed next week. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.3239 and a high of 1.3357 before closing the day at 1.3274 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar gained as the market waited for some clarity to emerge on Sino-US trade, while soft economic data at home had only a fleeting impact. US President Donald Trump is open to reaching a deal over dinner on Saturday with Chinese leader Xi Jinping but is ready to hike tariffs if there is no breakthrough, White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said on Tuesday. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7219 and a high of 0.7326 before closing the day at 0.7308 in the New York session.

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is issuing a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 52 and lies below the neutral zone. In general, the pair has gained 0.61%.

 

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish tone and MACD is indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 49 reading and lies below the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has gained 0.50%.

 

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is also indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 61 reading and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 1.02%.

 

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and below 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bearish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 54 and lies above the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has gained 0.03%.

 

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish stance and MACD is also indicating a bearish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 41 and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.11%.

 

Appendix

  

FOREX Closing Prices for November 28, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.12903 1.1386 1.12657 1.13644 0.0078
USD/JPY 113.761 114.018 113.423 113.661 -0.1130
GBP/USD 1.27374 1.28453 1.27305 1.28212 0.0077
USD/CHF 0.99876 1.00042 0.99237 0.99357 -0.0049
USD/CAD 1.32935 1.33575 1.32398 1.32741 -0.0020
EUR/JPY 128.432 129.235 128.226 129.187 0.7800
GBP/JPY 144.938 145.811 144.836 145.745 0.7190
CHF/JPY 113.892 114.383 113.763 114.365 0.4480
AUD/JPY 82.171 83.155 82.14 83.015 0.8390
EUR/GBP 0.88635 0.88744 0.88086 0.88609 0.0002
EUR/CHF 1.12764 1.13145 1.12588 1.12945 0.0019
GBP/CHF 1.27186 1.27893 1.27145 1.274 0.0015

 

 

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1171 1.1218 1.1291 1.1339 1.1412 1.1459 1.1532
USD/JPY 112.79 113.11 113.38 113.70 113.98 114.30 114.57
GBP/USD 1.2638 1.2684 1.2753 1.2799 1.2868 1.2914 1.2982
USD/CHF 0.9824 0.9874 0.9905 0.9955 0.9985 1.0035 1.0066
USD/CAD 1.3106 1.3173 1.3223 1.3290 1.3341 1.3408 1.3459
EUR/JPY 127.52 127.87 128.53 128.88 129.54 129.89 130.55
GBP/JPY 144.14 144.49 145.12 145.46 146.09 146.44 147.07
CHF/JPY 113.34 113.55 113.96 114.17 114.58 114.79 115.20
AUD/JPY 81.37 81.76 82.39 82.77 83.40 83.79 84.42
EUR/GBP 0.8756 0.8782 0.8822 0.8848 0.8887 0.8914 0.8953
EUR/CHF 1.1208 1.1234 1.1264 1.1289 1.1320 1.1345 1.1375
GBP/CHF 1.2632 1.2673 1.2707 1.2748 1.2781 1.2823 1.2856

 

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

29 Nov 2018

Daily Market View

Daily Market View

Thursday, November 29, 2018
          U.S Stock Market

 

DJIA S & P 500 NASDAQ
25344 2742.00 6919.00
+2.49% +2.30% +2.95%

U.S stock indexes rallied more than 1.5percent yesterday after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the policy rate was ‘just below’ neutral, easing worries of a faster pace of interest rate hikes next year. The Fed’s gradual interest-rate hikes are meant to balance risks as it tries to keep the economy on track, Powell said, but offered few clues on how much longer the U.S. central bank would raise interest rates in the face of a global slowdown and market volatility at home. Ten of the 11 major S&P sectors were higher. Markets also took heart from White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow’s comments on Tuesday that opened the possibility that the United States and China would reach a trade deal at the upcoming G20 Summit. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 477.47 points, or 1.93 percent, the S&P 500 was up 42.76 points, or 1.59 percent and the NASDAQ was up 142.77 points, or 2.02 percent. Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by a 3.45-to-1 ratioon the and by a 2.96-to-1 ratio on the NASDAQ.

 

 

Major Economic Releases for Today
Period Event GMT Forecast Previous

3Q

French Gross Domestic Product (YoY) 07:45 1.5% 1.5%

nov

German Unemployment Change (000’s) 08:55 -10k -11k

nov

German Consumer Price Index (YoY) 13:00 2.4% 2.5%

oct

U.S Personal Income 13:30 0.4% 0.2%

oct

U.S Personal Spending 13:30 0.4% 0.4%

oct

U.S PCE Core (YoY) 13:30 2.1% 2.0%

nov

U.S Initial Jobless Claims 13:30 220k 224k

oct

U.S Pending Home Sales (YoY) 15:00 -2.8% -3.4%

nov

U.S FOMC Meeting Minutes 19:00    
Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 2.50%. The best performers of the session on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were Caterpillar Inc., which rose 4.95% or 6.17 points to trade at 130.77 at the close. Meanwhile, Boeing Co added 4.86% or 15.47 points to end at 333.50 and Visa Inc. was up 4.02% or 5.47 points to 141.38 in late trade. The worst performers of the session were Verizon Communications Inc, which fell 0.97% or 0.59 points to trade at 60.06 at the close. United Technologies Corporation added 0.04% or 0.05 points to end at 122.73 and Dow DuPont Inc. was up 0.07% or 0.04 points to 57.22.

 

 

 

NASDAQ 100

The NASDAQ index gained 2.95%. The top performers on the NASDAQ were Gaming Partners which rose 70.80% to 13.13, Alliqua BioMedical Inc. which was up 60.24% to settle at 2.660 and Ferroglobe PLC which gained 25.56% to close at 2.26. The top performers on the NASDAQ Composite were Gaming Partners which rose 70.80% to 13.13, Alliqua BioMedical Inc. which was up 60.24% to settle at 2.660 and Ferroglobe PLC which gained 25.56% to close at 2.26.

 

 

Oil

Oil prices fell yesterday, continuing a recent run of losses, after U.S crude inventories rose for the 10th week in a row. The market also remains nervous over whether OPEC-led producing countries will reach an accord next week on output cuts. Saudi Arabia said yesterday it would not cut output alone and Nigeria stopped short of committing to a new push to curb supplies. U.S West Texas Intermediate crude fell $1.27, or 2.5 percent, to $50.29, the lowest settle price since early October 2017. U.S crude stockpiles rose by 3.6 million barrels in the week to Nov. 23, exceeding expectations. After falling to 2½-year lows in September, crude stocks have risen 14 percent with 10 straight weeks of increases. The market continues to come under pressure due to worries of a supply glut and slowing global demand growth. Crude’s drop since October is on a par with the 2008 price crash and steeper than that of 2014-2015, both of which prompted OPEC to agree output curbs to support the market.

 

 

 

Precious and Base Metals

Gold prices recovered from two-week lows, rising as much as 1 percent as the dollar fell after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell offered little clues on the pace of future interest rate hikes in a cautious speech. Meanwhile, palladium prices hit a fresh record high at $1,186.30 per ounce. While there was “a great deal to like” about U.S. prospects, the bank’s gradual interest-rate hikes are meant to balance risks as it tries to keep the economy on track, Powell said. Powell’s comments suggest that 2019 may be more of a wait-and-see approach and the assumption of any hikes may be premature. Spot gold was up 0.6 percent at $1,221.68 per ounce after rising as much as 1 percent to $1,226.24. Prices fell to its lowest level since Nov. 15 at $1,210.65 earlier in the session. U.S gold futures were up 0.7 percent at $1,222. Investors will also keep a close watch for the minutes from the central bank’s Nov. 7-8 meeting, scheduled to be released today, for indications on the rate hike trajectory in 2019. The Fed has raised rates three times this year. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, was down 0.3 percent after the Fed speech. Meanwhile, U.S President Donald Trump is likely to meet his Chinese counterpart on the sidelines of the G20 meeting later this week to discuss the trade dispute between the major economies. Bullion has largely lost out to the dollar as a safe haven asset this year as the U.S-China trade war unfolded against a backdrop of rising U.S interest rates. Silver rose 1.1 percent to $14.29 per ounce, while platinum fell 1.1 percent to $821.30, having earlier touched its lowest in more than a month, at $814.50. Copper edged higher yesterday after declining for three straight sessions, while other industrial metals moved in tight ranges amid uncertainty over the direction of the U.S.-China trade war.

 

Traditional Agricultures

Soybean futures rose yesterday on short-covering as investors waited to see if expected talks between Washington and Beijing at a G20 summit this week will defuse a trade dispute that has choked U.S soybean exports to China. Corn and wheat followed the firm tone, drawing additional support from a sharply weaker Dollar.

 

 

Futures Settlement Price Wednesday, November 28, 2018
Instrument Contract Open High Low Settlement Net Change
DJIA DJM18 24771 25367 24724 25344 601
S & P 500 SPM18 2686 2744.75 2681 2742 58.25
NASDAQ 100 NDM18 6724.5 6923 6709 6919 207
Hang Seng HSH18 26353 26717 26286 26608 356
Nikkei 225 NKH18 22075 22235 22035 22235 245
FTSE 100 FTH18 7058 7075.5 6987.5 7075.5 36.5
Gold GCJ18 1214.2 1227.4 1210.4 1220.8 6.6
Silver SIK18 1410 1435 1406 1427 18.5
Copper HGK18 271.55 280.2 271.4 278.9 7.45
Crude Oil CLK18 52.05 52.52 50.03 50.27 -1.79
Wheat WK18 497.75 500.5 494.25 497.25 -0.5
Soybeans SK18 876 894.5 873.75 889.75 14
Corn CK18 355.75 361 355.75 360.25 4.25

 

 

Daily Swings  (The Pivot Levels)
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
DJM18 24280 24502 24923 25145 25566 25788 26209
SPM18 2636.67 2658.83 2700.42 2722.58 2764.17 2786.33 2827.92
NDM18 6563.67 6636.33 6777.67 6850.33 6991.67 7064.33 7205.67
HSH18 25926 26106 26357 26537 26788 26968 27219
NKH18 21902 21968 22102 22168 22302 22368 22502
FTH18 6928.83 6958.17 7016.83 7046.17 7104.83 7134.17 7192.83
GCJ18 1194.67 1202.53 1211.67 1219.53 1228.67 1236.53 1245.67
SIK18 1381.33 1393.67 1410.33 1422.67 1439.33 1451.67 1468.33
HGK18 264.67 268.03 273.47 276.83 282.27 285.63 291.07
CLK18 46.87 48.45 49.36 50.94 51.85 53.43 54.34
WK18 487.92 491.08 494.17 497.33 500.42 503.58 506.67
SK18 856.75 865.25 877.50 886.00 898.25 906.75 919.00
CK18 351.75 353.75 357.00 359.00 362.25 364.25 367.50

 

 Source: – News & Quotes (Courtesy:  Reuters)                                                                    

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.