28 Nov 2018

Daily Market View

Daily Market View

Wednesday, November 28, 2018
          U.S Stock Market

 

DJIA S & P 500 NASDAQ
24743 2683.75 6712.00
+0.33% +0.29% -0.05%

U.S stocks made small gains yesterday after White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said a meeting between President Trump and his Chinese counterpart on was an opportunity to “turn the page” on a trade war. All three major U.S indexes turned positive after spending much of the session in negative territory, after Kudlow’s comments days ahead of the high-stakes dinner between the two leaders after the G20 summit in Buenos Aires. But Kudlow also said the White House has been disappointed so far in China’s response to trade issues with the United States. On Monday, Trump threatened to move ahead with additional tariffs on Chinese goods, due to take effect on Jan. 1. Industrials were also the biggest drag on the Dow, led by United Technologies Corp which was down 5.5 percent following its announcement late Monday that it would divide its aerospace, elevators and building segments into three discrete companies. The Dow rose 25.41 points, or 0.1 percent, the S&P 500 gained 3.54 points, or 0.13 percent and the NASDAQ added 4.69 points, or 0.07 percent.

 

Major Economic Releases for Today
Period Event GMT Forecast Previous

 

BOE Financial Stability Report and stress test results 07:00    

nov

U.S MBA Mortgage Applications 12:00   -0.1%

dec

German GfK Consumer Confidence 12:00 10.5 10.6

oct

U.S Advance Goods Trade Balance 13:30 -$77.0b -$76.3b

3Q

U.S Gross Domestic Product Annualized (QoQ) 13:30 3.5% 3.5%

3Q

U.S Personal Consumption 13:30 3.9% 4.0%

oct

U.S New Home Sales (MoM) 15:00 4.0% -5.5%

nov

DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories 15:30   4851k

 

U.S Fed’s Powell Speaks to Economic Club of New York 17:00    
Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.44%. The best performers of the session on the Dow Jones were Verizon Communications Inc., which rose 2.50% or 1.48 points to trade at 60.65 at the close. Meanwhile, Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. added 2.23% or 1.82 points to end at 83.52 and Home Depot Inc. was up 2.00% or 3.40 points to 173.22 in late trade. The worst performers of the session were United Technologies Corporation, which fell 4.14% or 5.30 points to trade at 122.68 at the close. Nike Inc. declined 0.85% or 0.62 points to end at 72.09 and DowDuPont Inc. was down 0.83% or 0.48 points to 57.18.

 

 

NASDAQ 100

The tech heacy NASDAQ index added 0.01%. The top performers on the NASDAQ were Arsanis Inc. which rose 255.17% to 4.12, Wins Finance Holdings Inc. which was up 33.82% to settle at 34.79 and Aethlon Medical Inc. which gained 25.64% to close at 1.470. The worst performers were Ferroglobe PLC which was down 62.26% to 1.80 in late trade, Smaaash Entertainment Inc. which lost 40.11% to settle at 3.30 and Intellipharmaceutics International Inc. which was down 39.70% to 0.340 at the close.

 

 

Oil

Oil prices turned firmly lower during midday trading yesterday. Crude futures were little changed earlier in the session, depressed by a report of record Saudi production but supported by expectations that oil exporters would agree to cut output at an OPEC meeting next week. U.S West Texas Intermediate crude fell 2 cents to $51.61. In the previous session, WTI fell to $50.10, its lowest level since mid-October 2017. Oil prices have lost almost a third of their value since early October, weighed down by an emerging supply overhang and widespread financial market weakness. Prices rallied sharply on Monday, with Brent rising almost 2.9 percent, but the market has struggled to stay positive. Leaders of the Group of 20 nations, the world’s biggest economies, meet on Nov. 30 and Dec. 1, with the trade war between Washington and Beijing top of the agenda. With the top three crude producers — Russia, the United States and Saudi Arabia — all present, oil policy is expected to be discussed.

 

 

Precious and Base Metals

Gold fell to its lowest in more than a week yesterday as the dollar rallied after comments from U.S. Federal Reserve vice Chair Richard Clarida bolstered expectations that the central bank would continue hiking interest rates. Spot gold fell 0.6 percent to $1,214.71 per ounce, after touching its lowest since Nov. 16 at $1,213.94. U.S gold futures dropped 0.7 percent to $1,214.50 an ounce. Most of those comments from Fed officials so far have been along the lines of continuing along the path of current rate hikes, certainly some of those comments have supported the dollar and pressured gold. The dollar gained after Clarida said the central bank should continue to gradually raise interest rates, but it is “especially important” to closely monitor new economic data as monetary policy is getting close to a neutral stance. Clarida softened gold with body blows and the stronger dollar on the back of consumer confidence (data) just delivered a left hook. I think gold will be dependent on the dollar for rest of day, and we could see a bounce if the dollar retraces. Higher interest rates tend to boost the dollar, making the gold more expensive for holders of other currencies. In a separate interview, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said the central bank may face a year of difficult decisions, with rates still low by historic standards but growth ebbing. Meanwhile, investors are also racing for position going into the G20 summit. Ahead of a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the summit in Argentina this week, U.S. President Donald Trump said that he was “highly unlikely” to accept China’s request to hold off from raising tariffs due to take effect on Jan. 1. The dollar has been the preferred safe haven this year as the U.S.-China trade war unfolded, thereby denting the appeal of bullion. Investors also awaited the minutes from the U.S. Fed’s meeting on Nov.7-8 for indications on the future path of rate hikes in 2019, while Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is due to speak today.

 

 

 

 

Traditional Agricultures

Soybean futures fell about two per cent and neared a four-week low on Monday on chart-based selling and worries about export prospects for U.S supplies amid a trade war with China.

 

 

 

Futures Settlement Price Tuesday, November 27, 2018
Instrument Contract Open High Low Settlement Net Change
DJIA DJM18 24518 24750 24403 24743 156
S & P 500 SPM18 2661.25 2684 2655.25 2683.75 15
NASDAQ 100 NDM18 6640.5 6722.5 6613 6712 42
Hang Seng HSH18 26314 26425 26133 26252 -145
Nikkei 225 NKH18 21960 22000 21810 21990 160
FTSE 100 FTH18 7034.5 7085 6983.5 7039 -8.5
Gold GCJ18 1222.3 1224.9 1211.1 1214.2 -7.9
Silver SIK18 1420 1425 1403.5 1408.5 -16
Copper HGK18 274.55 275.15 270.55 271.45 -3.1
Crude Oil CLK18 51.5 52.34 50.27 52.06 0.49
Wheat WK18 506.25 509.75 497.25 497.75 -9.25
Soybeans SK18 858.5 879.5 858.5 875.75 14.25
Corn CK18 355.75 358 355.25 356 0.5

 

 

Daily Swings  (The Pivot Levels)
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
DJM18 24167 24285 24514 24632 24861 24979 25208
SPM18 2635.92 2645.58 2664.67 2674.33 2693.42 2703.08 2722.17
NDM18 6533.00 6573.00 6642.50 6682.50 6752.00 6792.00 6861.50
HSH18 25823 25978 26115 26270 26407 26562 26699
NKH18 21677 21743 21867 21933 22057 22123 22247
FTH18 6885.17 6934.33 6986.67 7035.83 7088.17 7137.33 7189.67
GCJ18 1194.77 1202.93 1208.57 1216.73 1222.37 1230.53 1236.17
SIK18 1378.17 1390.83 1399.67 1412.33 1421.17 1433.83 1442.67
HGK18 265.02 267.78 269.62 272.38 274.22 276.98 278.82
CLK18 48.70 49.49 50.77 51.56 52.84 53.63 54.91
WK18 480.92 489.08 493.42 501.58 505.92 514.08 518.42
SK18 842.00 850.25 863.00 871.25 884.00 892.25 905.00
CK18 352.08 353.67 354.83 356.42 357.58 359.17 360.33

 

 Source: – News & Quotes (Courtesy:  Reuters)                                                                    

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.

 

 

 

 

 

 

28 Nov 2018

FOREX Newsletter

FOREX Newsletter

November 28, 2018

 

  Pulse of the Market

·      The U.S Conference Board’s consumer confidence gauge fell to a reading of 135.7 in November

·      President Trump said the Brexit agreement would hamper trade between the U.S and Britain

·      The British Pound fell after currency markets ignored positive UK data in favour of Brexit fears

·      Japanese officials will be keeping a close eye on the G-20 summit in Argentina later this week

 

The U.S Dollar rose against its rivals yesterday, shrugging off mostly bearish economic data, while a slump in the pound also lifted sentiment. The U.S dollar index, which measures the greenback against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, rose by 0.29% to 97.27. The S&P/Case-Shiller national house price index rose to a seasonally adjusted 0.3% in September, but rose just 5.1% compared to a year before, missing expectations for a 5.3% increase. The Conference Board’s consumer confidence gauge fell to a reading of 135.7 in November from 137.9 in last month, missing economists’ forecast for a reading of 135.9. Consumer sentiment is a leading indicator of consumer spending, which plays a major role in overall economic activity. The dollar was also swayed by remarks from Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Richard Clarida, who continued to back gradual rate hikes and said there were was no agreement on “how close” interest rates were to neutral. A slump in sterling helped the greenback hold gains after President Donald Trump said the Brexit agreement would hamper trade between the United States and Britain. Traders were also eyeing the Bank of England’s report on the economic impact of Brexit today. USD/JPY rose 0.17% to $113.78 as Wall Street rebounded from early-session weakness, reducing demand for safe-haven yen, even as White House chief economic advisor Larry Kudlow reportedly downplayed the prospect of U.S.-China trade deal at an upcoming G20 summit. The Canadian dollar edged lower against its U.S counterpart yesterday as concern about world trade tensions weighed on stocks and boosted the greenback. Canada exports many commodities, including oil, and runs a current account deficit, so its economy could be hurt if the global flow of trade or capital slows. The price of oil was supported by expectations that oil exporters would agree to cut output at an OPEC meeting next week.

 

 

Time(GMT)   Economic Release IMP Actual Forecast Prior
00:01 U.K BRC Shop Price Index (YoY) (NOV) Low     -0.2%
07:00 BOE Financial Stability Report and stress test results Medium      
09:00 Euro-Zone M3 Money Supply (YoY) (OCT) Low   3.5% 3.5%
12:00 U.S MBA Mortgage Applications (NOV 23) Medium     -0.1%
12:00 German GfK Consumer Confidence (DEC) Medium   10.5 10.6
13:30 U.S Advance Goods Trade Balance (OCT) High   -$77.0b -$76.3b
13:30 U.S Wholesale Inventories (MoM) (OCT) Medium   0.4% 0.4%
13:30 U.S Gross Domestic Product Annualized (QoQ) (3Q) High   3.5% 3.5%
13:30 U.S Personal Consumption (3Q) Medium   3.9% 4.0%
13:30 U.S Core PCE (QoQ) (3Q) Medium   1.6% 1.6%
15:00 U.S New Home Sales (MoM) (OCT) Medium   4.0% -5.5%
15:30 U.S Crude Oil Inventories (NOV 23) Medium 578.86k   4851k
17:00 U.S Fed’s Powell Speaks to Economic Club of New York High      
23:50 Japan Retail Trade (YoY) (OCT) Medium   2.7% 2.2%
23:50 Japan Large Retailers’ Sales (OCT) Medium   0.7% 0.4%

Euro

The single currency ceded ground to a resurgent Dollar, even after Italy’s government blinked in its budget standoff with the EU. The U.S Dollar on its front foot following President Donald Trump’s latest threats against China, and as markets grapple with a litany of political and economic risks looming over the Euro outlook. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1275 and a high of 1.1342 before closing the day around 1.1285 in the New York session.

 

Yen

The Japanese Yen pair ticked higher yesterday. On the release front, Japanese SPPI ticked higher to 1.3%, above the estimate of 1.2%. It was a similar trend for BoJ Core CPI, the preferred inflation indicator for the Bank of Japan. The indicator edged higher to 0.6%, just above the forecast of 0.5%. This marked the highest level in seven months. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 113.39 and a high of 113.82 before closing the day around 113.77 in the U.S session.

 

British Pound

The British Pound fell against the U.S Dollar after currency markets ignored positive UK data in favor of Brexit fears. The CBI reported better retail trends in its Nov survey but sterling ignored the data and remains soft amid Brexit worries and following the verbal intervention of President Trump in the Brexit debate yesterday. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.2723 and a high of 1.2817 before closing the day at 1.2744 in the New York session.

 

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar edged lower against its U.S counterpart yesterday as concern about world trade tensions weighed on stocks and boosted the greenback. The U.S. dollar rose to its highest level in almost two weeks against its major rivals, after President Donald Trump said he would push ahead with tariffs on Chinese goods.  Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.3233 and a high of 1.3326 before closing the day at 1.3294 in the New York session.

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar stabilized following an overnight slump yesterday but the outlook is growing more uncertain because commodity price headwinds are now returning to haunt the currency. Iron ore fell by 6% overnight in China, with the hard commodity now in bear market territory, dragging the Aussie down with it. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7197 and a high of 0.7267 before closing the day at 0.7224 in the New York session.

 

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is issuing a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 46 and lies below the neutral zone. In general, the pair has lost 0.18%.

 

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish tone and MACD is indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 44 reading and lies below the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.29%.

  

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is also indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 55 reading and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.24%.

  

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and below 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bearish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 55 and lies above the neutral region. On the whole, the pair has gained 0.21%.

 

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish stance and MACD is also indicating a bearish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 38 and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.48%.

 

Appendix

  

FOREX Closing Prices for November 27, 2018
Currency Open High Low Close Net Chg
EUR/USD 1.13259 1.13423 1.12759 1.12859 -0.0041
USD/JPY 113.566 113.824 113.396 113.774 0.2070
GBP/USD 1.28101 1.28179 1.27236 1.27445 -0.0063
USD/CHF 0.9983 1.00017 0.99736 0.99846 0.0000
USD/CAD 1.32498 1.3326 1.32333 1.32942 0.0042
EUR/JPY 128.629 128.824 128.332 128.407 -0.2340
GBP/JPY 145.475 145.554 144.572 145.026 -0.4210
CHF/JPY 113.724 113.963 113.492 113.917 0.1970
AUD/JPY 81.97 82.535 81.793 82.176 0.1960
EUR/GBP 0.88381 0.88857 0.88371 0.88585 0.0018
EUR/CHF 1.13074 1.13228 1.12716 1.1276 -0.0033
GBP/CHF 1.27897 1.27966 1.27071 1.27254 -0.0062

 

 

Daily Pivot Points
  Trading Range  
Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.1194 1.1235 1.1260 1.1301 1.1327 1.1368 1.1393
USD/JPY 113.08 113.24 113.51 113.66 113.93 114.09 114.36
GBP/USD 1.2612 1.2668 1.2706 1.2762 1.2800 1.2856 1.2895
USD/CHF 0.9943 0.9959 0.9972 0.9987 1.0000 1.0015 1.0028
USD/CAD 1.3150 1.3192 1.3243 1.3285 1.3336 1.3377 1.3428
EUR/JPY 127.73 128.03 128.22 128.52 128.71 129.01 129.20
GBP/JPY 143.57 144.07 144.55 145.05 145.53 146.03 146.51
CHF/JPY 113.15 113.32 113.62 113.79 114.09 114.26 114.56
AUD/JPY 81.06 81.43 81.80 82.17 82.54 82.91 83.29
EUR/GBP 0.8787 0.8812 0.8835 0.8860 0.8884 0.8909 0.8932
EUR/CHF 1.1206 1.1239 1.1257 1.1290 1.1309 1.1341 1.1360
GBP/CHF 1.2600 1.2654 1.2689 1.2743 1.2779 1.2833 1.2868

 

Sources:  News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

 

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

The firm or its staff members may trade on their own account and may from time to time hold or act as market makers in investments mentioned in this document. Please note that the firm makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions herein. All parties are advised to seek independent professional advice as to the suitability of any products and to their tax, accounting, legal or regulatory implications. City Credit Capital (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reg 232015.