Fed officials offer mixed signals int the blackout period and sends the dollar higher. Gold drops below the 1430 downside key support level again. Gold prices on Friday gave back earned ground from the prior session following a dialled back in the markets with respect to Federal Reserve rate cut expectations. Spot prices fell from a high of $1,452.95 to a low of $1,420.35, ending the New York session at $1,425.35 and -1.49%. The greenback stablised following The Wall Street Journal's report that Fed officials, based on recent public statements and interviews, were actually signalled they were ready to cut rates by a just a quarter-percentage point and not by 50 basis points. The Dollar was 0.3% higher at 97.104 in the DXY by the precious metal's close and was closing the New York session back on he 97 handle, + 0.41%. The 10-year Treasury note was yielding 2.0494%. Meanwhile, gold futures were also ending lower for the session as the dollar strengthened, although they e..

The Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 60 points to 8,146. The DJIA index ended down 68 points 27,154. The S&P 500 index lost 18 points at 2,976. Wall Street's benchmarks were ending the session on Friday lower as counter reports to the prior day's hype with respect of a 50 basis point rate cut from the Federal Reserve suggest that there will only be a 25 basis point rate cut. There were also headlines that Iran had seized a British-flagged oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz which was not risk-friendly. Consequently, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, DJIA, ended down 68 points 27,154 and the S&P 500 index lost 18 points at 2,976. The Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 60 points to 8,146. Trump: Iran is in big trouble now, the economy is crashing The Wall Street Journal dialled back expectations of a 50 basis point cut at the end of this month's Federal Open Market Committee's meeting as it reported that the Fed officials, based on recent public statements and intervie..

EUR/USD spent the week near monthly lows trading between 1.1200 and 1.1290. The 1.1200 figure is an important level to break for bears. EUR/USD daily chart EUR/USD is trading in a bear trend below the main daily simple moving averages (DSMAs). The market is about to end the trading week near monthly lows. EUR/USD 4-hour chart EUR/USD is testing one more time the 1.1220 support while trading below the main SMAs. Bears want to break below this importnat level to reach 1.1200 and 1.1160, according to the Technical Confluences Indicator. EUR/USD 30-minute chart EUR/USD is trading below its main SMAs suggesting bearish momentum in the near term. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1255 and 1.1290, according to the Technical Confluences Indicator. Additional key levels

The S&P500 broke below the 2,985.00 support The correction can continue towards 2,965 and the 2,950 level. S&P500 daily chart The S&P 500 Index is trading in a bull trend above its main daily simple moving averages (DSMAs). The market. Bulls objective is to keep the trend intact and break above the 3,010.00 level and potentially reach 3,045.00 on the way up. S&P500 4-hour chart Bears broke below the 2,985.00 support and the 100 SMA. The correction down can extend towards 2,965.00 and 2,950.00. Additional key levels

While there have been warning signs on the UK economy, political outcomes regarding Brexit dominate the outlook for the pound, explained analyst at Rabobank. They noted GBP has been testing key technical levels. Key Quotes: “In recent sessions, cable traded below the December 2018 low of 1.2478, reaching levels last seen more than two years ago before bouncing back. If a break below this level is sustained, from a chartist’s perspective, this would put the GBP/USD 1.2351 level in view.” “If Johnson is confirmed as UK PM next week, GBP would be at risk of weakening. His rival, Hunt, is likely to be greeted a little more favourably by UK investors due to his more pragmatic view on the October 31 Brexit deadline. Even on the scenario of a cliff edge Brexit being avoided this year, UK investors will have to cope with the legacy of Brexit on the political system. A delay to Brexit could result in the Tories limping into the next election.” “Our central view that Brexit will be delayed..

Analysts at CIBC, point out the USD/JPY appears to be pricing in a scenario more like the bond market, so if the Federal Reserve cuts rates less aggressive as expected, the yen could underperform. Key Quotes: “Bond markets are pricing in about 100bps worth of cuts from the Fed, suggesting possibly a mild recession scenario. Equity markets clearly aren’t anticipating anything that bad. Where does the risk-off yen fit in?” “Given where USDJPY is compared to the end of last year, it appears to be pricing in a scenario more like the bond market. As such, if the 50bps worth of cuts from the Fed (plus other policy easing globally) is enough to shore up growth that could have the yen underperforming other currencies such as the euro and sterling against the US$ next year.”

Analysts at TDS, expect the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) to continue its easing cycle and to cut by 25bps at the board meeting next Friday. Key Quotes: “The market has pretty much fully priced in a 25bps cut so we expect little response from USDRUB. If the CBR surprises the market with a 50bps cut we could see some move up in USDRUB of about 0.3-0.5%.” “We think the CBR will stick with its recent cautious stance and cut the Key Rate by 25bps to 7.25%. This is a revision to our previous forecast where we expected the next cut to come in September. Our revised forecast is in line with the almost unanimous consensus.” “After next Friday's cut we expect two more cuts: at the September and December meetings. We expect only one cut next year, in March, bringing the Key Rate down to 6.5%. Given that the 4% target should have been more or less reached by then, this would put the real policy rate in the middle of the 2-3% range which the CBR deems to be neutral.”

Analysts from Rabobank, see recent moves in crude oil prices as a knee-jerk reaction to a misleading headline which will ultimately reverse itself. Key Quotes: “Oil markets moved sharply lower this week on the back of statements from US Secretary of State Pompeo indicating that Iran was ready to come back to the negotiating table”. “The forward curves for both WTI and Brent remain strongly inverted which is good evidence of a tightening market”. “Looking forward we remain biased to the upside for oil prices in the second half of this year. We view this week’s price selloff as headline driven and likely to reverse itself overtime as fundamental tightness becomes more apparent to the market. Our base case is for Brent to stabilize around the $75/bbl mark in the 3rd quarter and for WTI to stabilize around $70/bbl.”

Oil advances on Friday but closes the week with a 7% loss. Diminishing escalations in the Middle East put pressure on crude prices. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil finished Friday with small gains, following five consecutive daily losses. Oil recovered from a monthly low of $54.72 a barrel scored on Thursday and it is poised to end the week just below $56.00/bbl. WTI losses 7% for the week amid easing geopolitical tensions Oil recovered from one-month lows scored on Thursday and moved back to $56.00/bbl amid reports that Iran seized a UK ship in the Gulf of Oman. However, sweet light crude oil has faced strong pressure this week, losing more than 7%, amid rumours that Iran and the US could go back to the negotiation table, diminishing geopolitical tensions. WTI significant levels At the moment the barrel of WTI is gaining 0.41% on Friday at $55.93. On the upside, next resistances could be found at $57.37 (200-day SMA), $57.97 (20-day SMA) and $59.10 (100-day SMA). On th..

Next week data to be released in the US includes the 2Q GDP report. Analysts at the National Bank of Canada expect growth of around 1.5% annualized. Key Quotes: “The Bureau of Economic Analysis will publish its advance estimate of Q2 GDP growth on Friday. A moderation in growth from the prior quarter – recall the +3.1% growth print in the first quarter ─ is in the cards. That’s because of a likely drag from destocking after three consecutive quarters of inventory accumulation. Trade also probably weigh on growth, as export volumes fell at a faster pace than import volumes did in the quarter. Domestic demand, meanwhile, should remain strong judging from a healthy rebound in retail sales in the quarter. If shipments of non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft are any guide, business investment spending should provide a modest lift to growth as well. Overall, we expect GDP growth of around 1.5% annualized.” “Durable goods orders may have bounced back in June following two consecut..

Trump's response to recent UK tanker situation coming through. Trump says will work wit UK on the matter and that Iran is in big trouble now. Steve Herman, the White House Bureau Chief, has said that President Donald Trump announced that the U.S. will work with the UK on tanker situation. This follows the latest news that Iran has sized a UK tanker that had, according to Iran, turned off its radio communications and ignored warnings. UK Miniters witll be holding a Covra meeting shortly. Iran Guards say they seized a British Oil tanker "We heard one, we heard two” of Iran seizing oil tankers today. But he declines to say if this crosses a line and how US will respond except to say there’s an agreement US has with the UK on maritime security," Steve Herman. Trump's comments: Iran may have seized two tankers. Iran is nothing but trouble. Goes to show that I was right about Iran. Iran is in big trouble now, the economy is crashing. Market implications: The pric..

Analysts at CIBC, point out economic data in the Eurozone is not as weak as it seems and could soon support the Euro. Key Quotes: “Low growth and low inflation have resulted in a dovish ECB and a downtrodden euro. However, growth and inflation may not be quite as low as people now think. The “supercore” measure of inflation (which omits other volatile prices such as air fares, not just food and energy) has been grinding higher.” “A run higher in the surprise index suggests that the downgrades in growth expectations could soon be coming to an end. If these trends continue, the ECB may not have to be as forceful in any further stimulus measures, which would support the currency.”