Economist at UOB Group Barnabas Gan assessed the outlook on Thailand’s economic growth for the current year. Key Quotes “Thailand’s economy expanded 1.6% y/y in 4Q19, marking its slowest growth pace since 3Q14. On a quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted basis, the economy expanded merely 0.2% in 4Q19. Accounting for the latest growth print, Thailand clocked 2.4% growth for the whole of 2019.” “We are downgrading our full-year growth further to 2.0% for 2020, accounting for the negative impact from the COVID-19 outbreak. This is down from our previous estimate of 2.8% which we highlighted was still subjected to downside risks of between 0.5% and 1.0% depending on the severity of the COVID-19 outbreak.” “With the Bank of Thailand cutting its benchmark rate by 25bps to an unprecedented low of 1.0% in its February 2020 MPC meeting, we think that policy space is limited at this juncture. We also view that Thailand’s elevated household debt levels and inflation pressures could be exacer..

Here is what you need to know on Wednesday, February 19: Coronavirus: The respiratory disease has already taken the lives of over 2,000 people including a second victim in Hong Kong and infected over 75,000. However, contrary to Tuesday, markets are calmer as Beijing has announced more measures to help the economy. This includes bailing out airlines, waiving social security payments, and more. Markets: The safe-haven yen is retreating with USD/JPY topping 110 while Gold's rally halted around $1,600. The dollar is only marginally lower against other currencies. Robert Kaplan, President of the Dallas branch of the Federal Reserve, has reaffirmed the bank's wait-and-see mode. His speech came ahead of the release of the FOMC Meeting Minutes from the January decision, in which the Fed left rates unchanged and made only subtle changes to the outlook. The minutes may reveal more on the Fed's thinking on the coronavirus, inflation, growth, and more. See January FOMC Minutes ..

Coronavirus fears continue underpinning gold prices. While China has announced measures to help the economy, fears of growing economic damage, XAU/USD is holding onto gains above $1,600. What are the next levels to watch? The Technical Confluences Indicator is showing that significant resistance awaits at $1,612, which is the convergence of the multi-year high, the Pivot Point one-day Resistance 1, the PP one-week R3, and the Bollinger Band 1h-Upper. Further above, the upside target is $1,620, which is where the Pivot Point one-day Resistance 2 hits the price. Looking down, substantial support is at $1,599, which is the confluence of the Fibonacci 23.6% one-day, the previous 4h-low, the Simple Moving Average 5-4h, the PP one-week R2, and more. Further down, a considerable cushion awaits gold prices at $1,594, which is a juncture including the Fibonacci 61.8% one-day, the PP one-week R1, the SMA 5-1h, and the Fibonacci 23.6% one-month. Here is how it looks on the tool: Confluenc..

DXY trades in the vicinity of recent YTD highs just below 99.50. Coronavirus fears spurred the demand for the dollar on Tuesday. FOMC minutes, Producer Prices, housing data, Fedspeak all due later. The greenback, when measured by the US Dollar Index (DXY), is struggling for direction near 99.50 following the Asian trading session on Wednesday. US Dollar Index looks to Fed, data The monthly rally in the index appears far from abated on Wednesday after it clinched fresh YTD highs near 99.50 on Tuesday and is now at shouting distance from 2019 peaks at 99.67 recorded on October 1st. Renewed jitters around the Chinese coronavirus (COVID-19) encouraged investors to return to the safe haven universe in detriment of recent bets favouring riskier assets, all morphing into extra wings for the buck and dragging US yields lower. Later in the NA session, the focus of attention will be on the publication of the FOMC minutes. Seconded in relevance will come Housing Starts and Building Permits..

EUR/GBP struggles for direction near a 10-week low. Oversold RSI favors a pullback but short-term falling resistance line challenges buyers. EUR/GBP seesaws around the previous day’s close while taking rounds to 0.8305 ahead of the European session on Wednesday. The pair dropped to the lowest in a year on Tuesday but bounced back amid oversold RSI conditions. Even so, a descending trend line from January 01 restricts the pair’s near-term pullback. Hence, the pair’s recovery to January-end lows near 0.8387 can’t be expected unless it stays strong above 0.8353 resistance-line. If at all buyers manage to dominate beyond 0.8387, February 05 low near 0.8430 and the monthly top surrounding 0.8540 will gain market’s attention Until then, sellers will keep targeting December 2019 low near 0.8275 while also aiming for July 2016 low near 0.8250 during further declines. If prices stay weak below 0.8250, April 2016 top close to 0.8120 could return to the charts. EUR/GBP four-hour chart Tre..

Days ahead of a scheduled visit to India, US President Trump raised doubts over a potential trade deal with the South Asian super power, Bloomberg reports. While speaking to Reuters late Tuesday, Trump said:” Well, we can have a trade deal with India, but I’m really saving the big deal for later on.” Trump said that he still wants to do “a very big trade deal with India,” but added “I don’t know if it will be done before the election. We’re not treated very well by India, but I happen to like Prime Minister Modi a lot.” Trump is scheduled to visit India on February 24th and 25th. USD/INR slips from monthly top near 71.80 despite challenges at India

GBP/USD registers fewer moves as traders await the key data. The British government said no to visas for low-skilled workers, the EU-UK tussle over Brexit issues continues. The UK CPI becomes the other criteria for expecting BOE’s rate cut. GBP/USD clings to 1.3000 while heading into the London open on Wednesday. The Cable has been in a 10-pip choppy range between 1.2995 and 1.3005 since the start of the Asian session. The reason to blame could be traced from the upcoming UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. With the multi-year low British Unemployment rate closing doors for the BOE’s rate cut, traders are all eyes on the UK CPI data for January considering the central bank’s upward revision to price pressures. In regards to this, the BOE’s line "should indicators of domestic prices remain relatively weak" becomes the key. Markets anticipate a slight recovery in headline CPI (YoY) figure to 1.6% from 1.3%, lagging behind BOE’s 1.8% forecast. Other than that, UK politics and Brexit ..

Uptick in the US equity index is boding well for USD/JPY. The pair needs to break above 110.29 to revive the broader uptrend. The bid tone around the anti-risk Japanese yen weakened, allowing USD/JPY to rise to 110.11, as the futures on the S&P 500 ticked higher hinting at risk reset in the financial markets. The US equities fell on Tuesday after Apple Inc said its revenue will be hit due to coronavirus. As a result, USD/JPY had dropped to a low of 109.66. Bulls need further gains While the recovery from 109.66 to 110.11 is encouraging, the pair is still trading within the range of last week’s Doji candle, meaning the market is still indecisive and the immediate outlook is neutral. A break above 110.29 (January high) is needed to confirm breakout or continuation of the rally from the August 2019 low of 104.45. Alternatively, a move below last week’s low of 109.56 would mean the period of indecision has ended in victory for the bears and could yield a deeper drop toward sup..

USD/CHF registers three-week winning streak, breaks above 38.2% Fibonacci retracement for the first time in a year. 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, September 2018 low act as the key supports. USD/CHF takes the bids to 0.9835 amid the pre-European session on Wednesday. In doing so, the pair crosses 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of its broad run-up between February 2018 and April 2019. Also supporting the pair’s upside is a first in nine weeks bullish MACD signal. Based on that, buyers are again targeting a 200-week SMA level of 0.9850 whereas a descending trend line from April 2019, at 0.9940 can question the bulls afterward. In a case where the USD/CHF prices stay strong beyond 0.9940, chances of witnessing the 1.0000 mark on the chart can’t be ruled out. Alternatively, 0.9770/65 and 50% Fibonacci retracement level around 0.9710 can entertain sellers during the pullback ahead of pleasing them with the yearly bottom of 0.9612. However, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and September 2018 tro..

According to the US Treasury Department report released Tuesday, China’s total shrank $54.4 billion on the year to $1.07 trillion. China sold around $19.3bn of US Treasuries in December. Its holdings dropped in December for a sixth straight month to the smallest amount since early 2017. Meanwhile, foreign inflows into US Treasuries in 2019 hit largest in 7 years Global yields and money flows into the US dollar in focus

EUR/USD printed its worst daily close in nearly three years on Tuesday. Risk reversals drop to lowest since October on put demand. Broader market sentiment and Eurozone data are likely to guide EUR/USD pair. EUR/USD is looking south and investors are adding bets to position for deeper losses in the common currency. Bearish daily close The pair closed below 1.08 on Tuesday, confirming its weakest daily close since April 2017. The daily and weekly candlestick arrangement shows the path of least resistance is to the downside. Risk reversals hit lowest since October Risk reversals on EUR/USD, a gauge of calls to puts on the common currency, plunged to their lowest levels since October on Tuesday, indicating investors are adding bets to position for further weakness in the euro. One-month risk reversals fell to -0.55, the lowest level since Oct. 28. The negative number indicates the demand for put options (bearish bets) is higher than that for calls. The common currency co..

Citing two sources familiar with the Japanese government thinking, Reuters reports that the Cabinet Office will likely maintain its view that the economy is recovering despite rising coronavirus risks, in a monthly report due on Thursday. In its monthly report for February to be released on Thursday, the government will make slight tweaks to language describing the economy as “recovering moderately despite continued weakness in exports,” the sources said. Additional Quotes: The assessment will also reflect the expected boost from the government’s $122 billion (93.84 billion pounds) fiscal package compiled in December to head off heightening overseas risks. The government will warn that risks to the economy were heightening due to the coronavirus outbreak. Meanwhile, USD/JPY sits above the 110 level, having found a fresh boost from the risk recovery seen across the financial markets in Wednesday’s Asian trading.