Having signaled, during late Friday, to retaliate against the US President Donald Trump’s withdrawal of the Generalised System of Preferences (GSP) program for Indian exporters on June 5, Bloomberg reported on late-Sunday that Indian trade measures against 28 products from the US come into effect. The news report further mentions that India has removed the 29th item—artemia, a kind of shrimp—from the list of products that will attract higher tariffs. The retaliatory tariffs will earn India $217 million in additional revenue. The report further mentioned that India initially decided to hike the duties on June 21, 2018, when the President Trump hiked custom duties on steel and aluminum products but stepped back on the search of a solution. The negotiations stalled after the US withdrew the GSP program for Indian exporters. Duties on walnut have been hiked to 120% from 30%, on chickpeas, Bengal Gram and Masur dal, those will be raised to 70% from 30% while the levy on lentils will be i..

Reuters came out with a news report on Sunday quoting Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih that mentioned OPEC would probably meet in the first week in July in Vienna and that he hoped it would reach consensus on extending its agreement to cut oil output. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries plus Russia and other producers, an alliance known as OPEC+, have a deal to cut output by 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) from Jan. 1. The pact ends this month and the group meets in coming weeks to decide their next move.

ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos was quoted by Reuters on Saturday as saying that Longer-term inflation expectations in the eurozone need to come unstuck for the European Central Bank (ECB) to provide more stimulus. The news report further quotes the ECB policymaker as saying that “what we need to see is a de-anchoring of inflation expectations, this has not yet happened, despite the fact that there has been a drop in market-based inflation expectations.”

Reuters quoted Iran’s semi-official Tasnim news agency report mentioning that Iran will announce further moves on Monday to scale back compliance with an international nuclear pact that the United States abandoned last year. The news report further mentions that Iran’s Atomic Energy Organisation, at the Arak heavy water site, will announce preparatory steps that have been taken to further decrease Tehran’s commitments under the deal. The organization will announce moves to increase stocks of enriched uranium and production of heavy water.

Chinese newsletter recently spotted social media updates form a state media handle playing down chances of any fruitful results of G20 meeting between the US and Chinese leaders while also stating that the retaliating measures to the US tariffs will continue. Taoran Notes, a social media account affiliated with China's official newspaper Economic Daily, recently warned that the countermeasures Beijing is taking against Washington’s increased tariffs and technology containment strategy could “become routine”. The social media update also played down expectations that an anticipated meeting between the Chinese and US leaders later this month could get trade negotiations back on track. The news report further stated that the updates also listed areas where China could strike back against the duties and other moves such as a ban on US companies supplying technology to Huawei. Those areas included exports of rare earth metals, which are used in nearly all hi-tech products, and its “..

The S&P500 spent the week in consolidation mode just above 2,880.00 support The level to beat for bulls is the 2,910.00 resistance. S&P500 daily chart The S&P500 Index is consolidating the gains of the last weeks below the 2,900.00 handle. The market remains bullish above its main daily simple moving averages (DSMAs). S&P500 4-hour chart The stock index is trading above its main SMAs suggesting bullish momentum in the medium term. Bulls are looking for a break above 2,910.00 to reach 2,940.00 and 2,960.00. Immediate support can be located at 2,880.00 and 2,840.00. Additional key levels

The Nasdaq Composite COMP dropped 0.5% to end around 7,797. The S&P 500 fell to around 2,887 DJIA lost less than 0.1%, to finish near 26,090. Wall Street ended lower on Friday, although higher for the week. President Trump's renewed criticism of the Fed had little impact, but U.S, data was solid enough to keep spirits up for the week - For the week, S&P was up 0.5%, the Dow was up 0.4% and the Nasdaq was up 0.7%. However, stocks struggled on the last day of trade and the S&P 500 fell to around 2,887 while the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA lost a modest 17 points, or less than 0.1%, to finish near 26,090. The Nasdaq Composite COMP dropped 0.5% to end around 7,797. Key U.S. data Retail sales came in largely in line with expectations, advancing 0.5% m/m (mkt: 0.6%, TD: 0.8%). "Importantly, revisions were significant to the upside, with headline sales jumping to 0.3% in April (up from -0.2%), and the control group's to 0.4%, up from flat before. In the details, the Ma..

DXY broke significantly higher on Friday reaching 97.55 resistance. Bulls have regained control and seem to be en route towards the 2019 high at 98.37. DXY daily chart The US Dollar Index (DXY) is in a bull trend above its main daily simple moving averages (DSMA). DXY 4-hour chart DXY is trading above its main SMAs suggesting bullish strength. The market reached 97.55 resistance mentioned on Thursday. DXY 30-minute chart The greenback is above its main SMAs suggesting bullish momentum in the near term. The market may continue to rise towards 97.80 and 98.37 resistances. Support is at 97.30 and 97.00 Additional key levels

Analysts from The Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, expect the USD/JPY pair to trade around 110 over the next quarters. Key Quotes: “In April, the JPY remained at around JPY 111 against the USD; however, it is currently at around JPY 108 per USD owing to risk aversion brought about by additional tariffs imposed on goods between the US and China and the announcement by the US that it would also introduce tariffs against Mexico.” “This strong JPY is not expected to continue, despite some fluctuation caused US trade policy, due to the continuation of a certain gap between Japanese and US interest rates. The JPY will trade at around JPY 110 per USD.”

Analysts at Wells Fargo, estimate that the Federal Reserve could cut its monetary policy rate two times during 2019. They forecast one 25 bps cut in July 2019 and another cut in Q4-2019 and the Fed funds range to remain unchanged at 1.75%-2.00% in 2020. Key Quotes: “Inflationary pressure remains modest. We do not expect core PCE inflation to return to 2% until 2020. Although we continue to believe much of the recent weakness has been transitory, we also believe the Fed has become increasingly committed to showing that 2% inflation is a symmetric target.” “The trend in hiring has downshifted, but remains strong enough for gradual labor market tightening to continue. By our estimates, it takes job growth of about 100,000 per month to meet labor force growth and keep unemployment steady.” “Both domestic and global growth have slowed, and slower inflation has pushed up the real federal funds rate. With limited fears about the Fed being “behind the curve” and less available ammunition..

Andrew Grantham, analysts at CIBC, points out that inflation is sticking closer to target in Canada than other countries, creating no concerns for the Bank of Canada and indirectly, helping the CAD. Key Quotes: “The Fed is getting more dovish, the ECB has extended the timeline it thinks rates will remain at record lows, and the RBA has already cut. All are seeing infl ation rates that aren’t just below target, but which have actually moved down over the past year. Unless next week’s fi gures show a big shift in the three core measures, that doesn’t appear to be a big headache for the BoC at the moment.” W”e see Poloz and co. remaining on the sidelines for longer than the Fed and longer than markets now anticipate, with a cut not coming until the economy slows again Q2 2020. That would help sustain the near-term appreciation of CAD for a couple more months, before it depreciates again next year.”

In Europe next week, a range of important decisions loom at the EU summit and markets will keep a close watch on monetary policy hints from the ECB’s Sintra Forum, explained Danske Bank analysts. Key Quotes: “On the politics front, we expect the EU summit from 20-21 June to be interesting as we might get more clarity on the front-runners for the EU Commission presidency and other EU top positions. In our view, markets will also monitor closely the Council’s decision with regard to formally opening an excessive deficit procedure (EDP) against Italy, after on 5 June the Commission found the country in violation of the debt reduction rules for 2018. This could mark the starting shot for a renewed budget fight with Brussels and weigh on market sentiment. “On the data front, we expect the June PMIs to be in the limelight on Friday. Driven by a further improvement in the order-inventory balance, manufacturing PMI remained broadly stable at 47.7 in May. Still, we see the improvement in ..